Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/16/18
2:00 |
: And we are here!
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2:00 |
: Maybe.
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2:00 |
: I made the chat myself so it may not actually be working and each and everyone of you is already dead.
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2:00 |
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2:02 |
: What is Miguel Sano still doing in the minors? How is this going to shake out?
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2:03 |
: They’re taking their time, realistically speaking the 2018 season is over, so they’re being cautious. Really, he should be slugging 1200 or something down there!
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2:03 |
: When is Sano back in the show? Doing better but still only single A…
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2:04 |
: HEY ARE YOU TWO THE SAME DUDE
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2:04 |
: Based on WRC+ and almost all other statistics that do not weigh PA, I am one of the favorites for AL MVP right? Where do you place me?
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2:04 |
: MVP is at its heart a quantitative award.
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2:04 |
: TOMLIN IS GONE!!!! (to the DL but i’ll take it! take that inertia!!!)
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2:06 |
: Harper currently sits at 0.0 rWAR. Might he actually consider accepting qualifying offer to rebuild his value next year?
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2:06 |
: It’s not the craziest, I’m actually tackling it this week.
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2:06 |
: What the heck has happened to the Mariners?
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2:06 |
: Let’s not forget, they were barely outscoring the opposition a week ago (and are behind now)
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2:07 |
: While the Pythag wins are baked into the cake, you can’t expect them to be another 10 in the second half
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2:07 |
: Which pitching prospect are you most excited to see debut in second half of 2018
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2:07 |
: Keller?
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2:07 |
: Oakland sellers or still hopeful? Will Treinen get moving giving Lou Trivino a shot at 2H saves?
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2:07 |
: I don’t think they’re sellers right now – they’re 3 games behidn WC2!
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2:08 |
: Remember, their last playoff appearance was that collapse year in 2014
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2:08 |
: Will Marwin Gonzales have a big 2nd half?
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2:09 |
: Probably not. He’s better than this year’s stats, but 2018 is closer to his usual year htan 2017 was
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2:09 |
: Should the Padres re-sign Galvis and move Tatis to 3rd in 2019?
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2:09 |
: Yes. Also, I’m an NL West GM
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2:09 |
: What is your biggest Orioles related fear?
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2:09 |
: The Orioles take some of the Machado haul in the form of a low ceiling, high floor prospect or a meh player wiht a few years in the majors
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2:10 |
: The nightmare I talk about is the O’s getting Nick Ahmed or something. Probably unlikely, but plausible enough to be scary
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2:10 |
: Are you buying a Jesse Winker breakout? The only hitters who are top 30 in both Contact % and FB + LD exit velocity are Trout, Betts and Winker. He’s also one of only 9 hitters with a BB/K >1.
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2:10 |
: Yes
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2:10 |
: The Padres hinted at moving towards brown uniforms in 2020. Why does it take so long to switch uniforms? Why not 2019?
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2:10 |
: I don’t actually know the vagaries of MLB approval and preparations etc.
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2:10 |
: But it’ll nice to see the Padres if they finally get away from Create-a-Team Uniform1
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2:11 |
: If I add crunched up saltines into my chili then does it stop being a chili similar to how chili does not have beans?
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2:11 |
: If you’re doing it for texture, that’s fine. If you’re doing it for TASTE, then it isn’t.
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2:11 |
: Great Futures Game. Anyone especially catch your eye? Lots of sons worried about momma killing them though. Trade Analysis: Carson Cistulli for Eno Sarris and 10 Sandwiches to be named later. Everybody wins. You don’t have to be the sandwich muckity muck at Fangraphs anymore and you can debate condiments all you want.
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2:11 |
: OMG THAT ALONSO HOME RUN THERE WERE NO SURVIVORS
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2:12 |
: Plus Hunter Greene throwing quadruple digits. OK, just triple, but it was a lot.
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2:12 |
: OMG we are still getting Dan chats now that he actually works here? Does that also mean that you can now answer about the inner workings of FanGraphs?
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2:12 |
: Before I couldn’t answer because I couldn’t no.
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2:12 |
: Now I can’t answer because it’s my job now!
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2:13 |
: YOU BEEN MORTON’S FORK-ED!
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2:13 |
: Is Jose Ramirez suffering from common name syndrome? Feels like he needs a more exciting name to get the true recognition he deserves.
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2:13 |
: Mid-spectrum players tend to have this problem whatever their name.
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2:14 |
: How many songs could Scott Rolen have adopted that sound like Rollin’? Yet he still just barely survived year one.
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2:14 |
: How does it feel to be able to post your own chats?
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2:14 |
: SCARY
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2:14 |
: If the Tigers were to come to grips with not pricing Fulmer as if he were DeGrom or Thor, what’s a realistic return? I’d still point to the Quintana deal, as both are solid #2 (Fulmer certainly has more upside) with long team control. But at the same time, I don’t see anyone offering an Eloy…
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2:14 |
: I think a little less than Quintana is reasonable.
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2:14 |
: Quintana was pitching better at the point than Fulmer was.
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2:14 |
: How concerned are you about Acuna? He is swinging at everything. Numbers even before the knee injury were not good. He swings at everything.
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2:14 |
: I’m not
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2:15 |
: Dude’s 20! Even mediocrity at AAA would be awesome
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2:15 |
: Is Jeff McNeil an actual useful utility guy?
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2:15 |
: He’s certainly desrved the chance to demonstrate it
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2:16 |
: See Josh Donaldson. Now obviously that would be a high-end outcome.
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2:16 |
: But you should always let players prove you wrong.
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2:17 |
: If the Mets can find playing time for an abuser who can’t actually play baseball anymore, they can find it for McNeil
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2:17 |
: Happy Rusev Day! Who’s your pick to win the Home Run Derby tonight?
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2:17 |
: I WROTE A PIECE SO NO
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2:18 |
: What do I do at the deadline?
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2:18 |
: Sell the guys that arne’t part of the future
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2:18 |
: Any word on what happened to George valera? Hasn’t played in a few weeks
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2:18 |
: Hurt wrist
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2:19 |
: Whats the best move the A’s could make this season that still keeps the well dry?
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2:19 |
: I’d like them to go after a catcher
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2:20 |
: Who wins the AL East?
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2:20 |
: Boston has the edge at the moment. The teams are close enough in ability (I have the Yankees slightly better) that you can pretty much go with whichever team is in the lead at the time
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2:20 |
: Better prospect…Jo Adell or royce lewis?
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2:20 |
: May be Adell right now
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2:21 |
: and Lewis is damn good
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2:22 |
: Could wander Franco be this good. Someone who could be a top 25 prospect by years end at age 17?
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2:22 |
: I tend to be a little more cautious about players in rookie ball than others, but somoene else may
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2:22 |
: Did you leave ESPN because they consider a hot dog a sandwich, thus causing friction between you and your coworkers in the heated sandwich debate?
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2:22 |
: Heh, no
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2:22 |
: Alcides Escobar will be burned into your memory like “M Bop” from Hanson…He will never leave until you admit to his spectacular ordinariness
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2:22 |
: He can stay forever. It gets funnier every year the Royals start him.
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2:23 |
: Seuly matias have a chance to be a legitimate major leaguer with that swing? The power seems undeniable, but the swing and miss is so high, can you think of any prospect that ever overcome/corrected such a high k %
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2:24 |
: I don’t get super obsessed about a teenager’s K rate. The question is how he develops over time. Being too passive is perhaps an even more dangerous sign.
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2:25 |
: How do the Indians not have a better record considering that division?
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2:25 |
: The bullpen’s been garbage and the offense has been carried by 2-3 guys
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2:25 |
: Tremors – keep Michael Gross
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2:25 |
: If the Cardinals decide to move Carlos Martinez, who are possible buyers and what sort of return could they get?
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2:25 |
: That’s absolutely not happening.
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2:26 |
: Best SP in the minors in 2019?
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2:27 |
: Whitley? If Kopech hits big as opposed to busts big, he’d be up quickly, if not already by the start of th eyear
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2:27 |
: NO MORE CARSON POSTS WOOOOOOOO
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2:27 |
: Dan, of all the skills competitions the All-Star Break could add, where does Knuckle Ball Challenge rank? If you make the All-Star team, regardless of position, you have to throw five knucklers. Track spin (or lack), movement, and speed. Preliminary Nielsen ratings polling suggest a 100% share and an estimated 8B viewers.
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2:27 |
: That woudl be fun. Writing more about this.
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2:27 |
: Let me set the scene. I checked my news reader and saw that Fangraphs had published a piece entitled “Joining the Fray.” There was a new person at Fangraphs! Who could it be? These posts had recently given me such fantastic writers as Meg and Kiley and Travis! I excitedly opened the article, but almost immediately used my bated breath to curse the heavens. Not only was there no new writer, but I would have to endure even more Dan Szymborski. Curse you, Carson!
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2:27 |
: HAHA FOILED
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2:28 |
: Since you are now a Sr. Muckity Muck here at Fangraphs and this is your first chat with such title… should we expect these chats to be any better than the previous ones?
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2:28 |
: I BET THIS IS THE SAME DUDE TOO
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2:28 |
: It only means I can’t explicitly threaten the chat anymore. Threats have to be subtle and understood.
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2:28 |
: A sloppy joe is just a fancy way to say “meat soup sandwich”
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2:28 |
: That’s not soup
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2:28 |
: How has your first week working for Carson gone?
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2:29 |
: The planet still stands.
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2:29 |
: Also, to the guy who asked about my takes on Jim and Pam being the worst in Jeff’s Friday chat, I haven’t forgotten about you and will get to that soon!
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2:29 |
: Who is the best hitter on the Astros?
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2:29 |
: I think you gotta say Bregman
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2:29 |
: The Phillies need an improvement at SS on both sides of the ball. Obviously he would be huge offensively, but how much would he help defensively? Is he as bad as the defensive metrics say
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2:30 |
: I assume we’re talking Machado and not, like, a Galvis reunion or something weird?
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2:30 |
: The season’s done enough to suggest Machado’s not going to be a big plus at short.
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2:30 |
: But you *can* take a small sample size of performance too seriously.
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2:31 |
: It takes like 3 yeras of defensive stats to have the same predictive value as one year of offensive stats.
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2:31 |
: So Manny’s stunk defensively, but it’s like a guy stinking offensively for a month and a week
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2:31 |
: He could still be Paul Goldschmidt, who did stink for a month and a week. Or he could be the defense version of Eric Hosmer’s bat
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2:32 |
: Is Francisco Mejia still in Cleveland’s plans or do they know something important we don’t?
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2:32 |
: I think the situation is a little awkward.
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2:32 |
: The thing is, I don’t think he’s a real plus outside of catching, yet. Which is a problem in that the Indians have catchers they like better defensive for good reason
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2:32 |
: Oh great. Emojis are on…
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2:33 |
: haha
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2:34 |
: Dude, you not following the news? We’re all absolutely dead.
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2:34 |
: CHACHING INSURANCE
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2:34 |
: Glad to see you are full-time writer for Fangraphs.
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2:34 |
: If we’re all dead then does that make you like Haley Joel Osment in the Sixth Sense but with a less spectacular ability, “I chat with dead people”
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2:34 |
: I can add that to my imagined list of mediocre superheroes
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2:35 |
: Like Broadway, who has the ability to know anybody’s theme song even if he’s not in the same scene as them. Or Cutrate, who can threaten his cable company with cancellation and get 12 months of free HBO any time he wants.
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2:35 |
: Whose brilliant idea was it to bracket Bryce vs. Freddie (2 biggest stars) in the 1st round?
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2:35 |
: They seeded on season HRs, didn’t they? I forget
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2:35 |
: When I come back down to earth, how hard of a fall is it?
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2:35 |
: Don’t ruin the fun! Muncy’s hitting the firetruck out of the ball.
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2:36 |
: He’ll regress somewhat, but it’s harder to fake barrels than LOL430BABIP
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2:36 |
: At what point do the Nats consider trading Harper, and what type of return could they get?
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2:36 |
: I’m addressing this this week too!
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2:36 |
: Would you give Josh Donaldson a two-year 30 MM deal if you were the Padres?
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2:36 |
: No
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2:36 |
: What are your first half awards?
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2:36 |
: STOP ASKING FOR THINGS I’M WRITING THIS WEEK
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2:37 |
: How much trade value does Dansby Swanson have and would the Braves be wise to explore it?
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2:37 |
: He does have value and probably not.
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2:37 |
: Aren’t the Padres wasting potentially the most productive years of Hosmer and Myers by waiting until 2021/2022 to compete? Should they sell some of the deep farm to get some pitching in advance of guys like MacKenzie Gore and Michel Baez?
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2:37 |
: Well, they better hope this isn’t the most productive year of Hosmer.
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2:38 |
: They are, but I don’t thin kthey’re in a position to just throw in all the chips right now.
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2:38 |
: Because realistically, who cares about taking advantage of Hosmer’s best seasons? You don’t base the franchise around that. He’s not Trout.
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2:38 |
: Or Dizzy Trout.
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2:38 |
: Or Mike Salmon
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2:38 |
: Or Richie Tilapia, a player I just made up
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2:39 |
: Hosmer’s essentially Steve Trout. If you overpay Steve Trout, you then don’t decide to change the battleship’s direction to take advantage of the years you have Steve Trout
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2:40 |
: You just accept you have Steve Trout and cashier whoever overpaid Steve Trout or send him to be the commander of the laundry ship SS Walter Mondale.
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2:40 |
: Why would Harper do that? I bet the Nats would pay more than $18 million for him on a one-year deal. I bet he could get $40 million.
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2:40 |
: Yup
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2:40 |
: But i”m not spoiling t he whole piece.
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2:40 |
: Dan, ever since you joined Fangraphs, baseball has been playing fewer and fewer games per week. Why are you actively ruining baseball?
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2:41 |
: BECAUSE I HATE AMERICA BECAUSE APPLE PIE LATTICES ROB YOU OF PIE CRUST
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2:41 |
: are fried pickles underrated?
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2:41 |
: They’re about rated.
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2:41 |
: Who are the A’s likely to buy?
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2:41 |
: I’m wondering if they claim Castillo when he gets back from suspension in August
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2:42 |
: What is the most interesting potential Machado destination to you?
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2:42 |
: Philadelphia becuase they could then literally take him off the market quickly
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2:43 |
: I also had a dream that the O’s traded him to the Twins for Gordon, Thorpe, and Rooker, and the Twins signed him
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2:43 |
: Asuka losing to the duo of Carmellsworth??? WWE tarnished Asuka’s unbeatable mystique rather quickly, wouldn’t you say?
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2:43 |
: Most of the PPV was just garbage.
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2:43 |
: And that was the most egregious.
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2:43 |
: The PPV was 2000 WCW bad.
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2:44 |
: You think Chris Sale will maintain this year actually instead of his normal 2nd half foibles?
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2:44 |
: I’m optimistic.
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2:44 |
: Do you think Matheny will ever get another job as Manager?
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2:44 |
: It’s possible
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2:44 |
: What are the Pirates? No using the word ‘Pirate’ in your definition.
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2:44 |
: Pittsburgh-based professional baseball team.
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2:44 |
: More potential to be unlocked by a trade to a pitching guru: Michael Fulmer or Kevin Gausman?
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2:45 |
: Perhaps Gausman
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2:45 |
: Does ZiPS attempt to quantify Brian Dozier’s repeated ability to turn it on in the second half ? His wRC+ is 15 pts better in the second half across his career
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2:45 |
: THat’s not exactly significant (and you expect some to do that by random chance)
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2:45 |
: They should have a bunt single derby.
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2:46 |
: Is Dombrowski a good GM?
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2:46 |
: I think he’s average these days. The league’s gotten better around him
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2:46 |
: WHO KEEPS POSTING POOP
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2:47 |
: STOP THE POOP
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2:47 |
: OR I WON’T LET YOU GUYS HAVE EMOTES NEXT WEEk
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2:47 |
: Sr Writer Dan. What would your walk up music to this chat be if we could hear it?
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2:47 |
: I’ve used this as bumper music on multiple occasions.
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2:47 |
:
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2:47 |
: Sheldon Neuse and Jorge Mateo for Whit Merrifield: who says no first?
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2:47 |
: Royals of course.
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2:48 |
: How nervous should the Cubs be about Hendricks? That HR rate remains concerning.
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2:48 |
: Hr rate is the most vaolatile
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2:48 |
: How hard would it be to get back into Hearthstone if I haven’t played the game in about a year?
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2:48 |
: It’s best to do that in spring after a rotation.
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2:48 |
: DANFORTH! Now that you are a Fangraphs employee I can officially start to badger you with Fangraphs-specific complaints instead of more general complaints about beans in chili!
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2:48 |
: Trust me, I’ll have new excuses to get out of questions I don’t want to anwer.
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2:48 |
: It hurts so much to watch Joey Gallo play baseball
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2:48 |
: Astros being Astros, Mariners struggling. A’s surging, Angels are there too, Trade deadline approaching. Look into the crystal ball and tell me how the AL West shakes out, please.
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2:49 |
: I think Astros pull away, Angels don’t quite have the juice, M’s/A’s go until end of season
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2:49 |
: % chance that the Twins do not finish 2nd in their division?
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2:49 |
: 10?
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2:49 |
: I’m pulling that
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2:49 |
: Could you see the Angels going after someone like Realmuto? They need a catcher after this season and they need help with the offense. What would it take to get him?
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2:49 |
: The Angels are a tricky team for trading because they minor league system’s recovery is top heavy
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2:50 |
: They have mostly guys they shouldn’t dream of trading for Realmuto and guys Marlins should never trade Realmuto for
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2:50 |
: Where does Robbie Cano play when he gets released back into society?
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2:50 |
: Seattle
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2:50 |
: Why did you leave ESPN?
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2:51 |
: Dave promised me beer bongs and Bentleys.
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2:51 |
: (Not really my preferred genre, but I can at least make the joke)
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2:52 |
: More seriously, I’ve enjoyed working with the people there, but after 8 years, you want to do something new. I was doing the same stuff every week and not writing as much as I really shoudl at this point of my career.
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2:52 |
: I have a lot more freedom here to do different kinds of things.
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2:52 |
: And at this stage of my career, I shouldn’t just be content to be a C-lister anywhere and lazily coast.
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2:54 |
: And after 8 years behind a paywall, while I think it’s a sound model, I was *always* behind a paywall. And there’s a whole generation of new readers/baseball fans that would know me mostly from Twitter rather than also my writing.
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2:54 |
: If that makes sense.
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2:55 |
: I’m one of the veterans in the baseball nerd world at this point. I don’t want to be a guy people remember reading when I was in my 20s and then I just tread water the rest of my career.
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2:55 |
: Are the Brewers in for a collapse during the second half of the season after losing 6 in a row
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2:55 |
: No, I think they’re just having a bad run
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2:55 |
: Now that the Cardinals seem to have conceded to their mediocrity, how do they go about fixing themselves, with so few obvious holes?
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2:55 |
: That’s the billion dollar question. Becuase the holes are generally holes you don’t give up on.
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2:55 |
: You can’t treat Dexter Fowler as if he’s Joey Rickard
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2:56 |
: In a newspaper interview after his call up, Franmil Reyes said the biggest difference in the majors was all of the data and info passed to him from the front office. Sounded like it was up to the player and the vets to assimilate the data (not the FO or coaches). If this is true, why don’t teams start teaching this stuff in the minors? Are you aware of any orgs that are moving in this direction?
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2:56 |
: There are a lot of approaches. The stuff slowly kinda gets into an organization’s DNA.
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2:56 |
: I think mostly in the minors, you’re looking at BIG things
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2:56 |
: Now I know why emotes are off by default
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2:56 |
: Will Cards move Mikolas/Wacha? Will Angels move Skaggs/Heaney? What would the return look like?
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2:57 |
: Honestly, I don’t think any of these players are moved.
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2:57 |
: Can MN catch CLE? If not, should they deal Kyle Gibson at peak value, he has a year of control left and has been very good since they changed his approach last year.
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2:57 |
: I think it’s unlikely.
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2:57 |
: I’d at least listen to Gibson offers.
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2:58 |
: Why is Eric Hosmer so bad in odd years
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2:59 |
: He doesn’t know that odd numbers and prime numbers are different things.
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2:59 |
: Concerns with Devers long term, or just a 21 year old who needs to make another adjustment?
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2:59 |
: Latter
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2:59 |
: you have mentioned or concurred with the thought that jose abreu and the colorado rockies are a match. is riley pint too little/too much as a return piece?
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2:59 |
: I think that’s the kind of thing you need to offer to get the White Sox to budge because they don’t want to trade for him.
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2:59 |
: Your time as a writer here as outperformed your ZiPS projection, which, given the high projection, was hard to do! (read: great job so far, wonderful pieces)
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2:59 |
: I appreciate it.
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2:59 |
: Eugenio Suarez is for real, yes? Most unheralded breakout of 2018?
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3:00 |
: I think he’s a really good player. ZiPS was a fan, though not to this extent.
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3:00 |
: At the time of the trades, ZiPS liked Suarez (the return for Simon) better than the combined returns for the Frazier *and* Chapman trades
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3:00 |
: Which dongmaker is most likely to hit zero dongs tonight?
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3:00 |
: Hmm.. Baez?
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3:01 |
: I can see him getting too aggressive and end up with a bunch of fouls
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3:01 |
: Why do the Padres seem to think they’ll be better next year or even 2020 when they’ll still have weak starting pitching?
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3:01 |
: I think they’ll be a 75-76 win team next year
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3:01 |
: Do you see the Orioles trading anyone under control for next year?
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3:01 |
: No
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3:01 |
: What team that is generally considered a “buyer” flips to “seller” late?
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3:01 |
: I actually dont’ think any as the leag’es a bit bifurcated
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3:02 |
: Nats are probably closest.
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3:02 |
: Not because I think they’re going to suddnely change mindset, but that circumstances could make it the obvious thing
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3:02 |
: Does Dee Gordon’s “baseball is fun” demeanor make up for his less than stellar stats?
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3:02 |
: Of course.
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3:03 |
: Stuff you enjoy and efficiency can be treated differently
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3:03 |
: Hot Take incoming: Pay Day candy bars are better than Snickers
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3:05 |
: Any O’s prospects down in the GCL worth checking out?
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3:05 |
: Hmm, I’m blanking honestly on who is down there
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3:06 |
: Grayson Rodriguez is down there, yes?
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3:07 |
: i went to elementary school with michael stonegross. if you ever run into him, tell him hi for me.
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3:07 |
: He is Daffy Trout
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3:07 |
: Raimel Tilapia is actually a real player.
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3:07 |
: The Rays jersey/color scheme is among the worst in baseball. Navy and Colombia blue is not a good combination and teams need to realize this.
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3:07 |
: On an unrelated note, why am I being limited by a reaction limit
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3:07 |
: I think there’s like a three poop maximum
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3:07 |
: if you want people to stop with the poop emoji’s then STOP TALKING ABOUT THE ORIOLES
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3:07 |
: How are you going to end the chat now since you dont have to say “asa reminder check out my articles on ESPN”
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3:08 |
: Don’t be so hard on yourself..you were at least a B- lister at ESPN.
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3:08 |
: Ready for Franco to headline a Machado trade?
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3:08 |
: THAT IS NOT FUNNY WHERE IS THE BAN BUTTON
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3:08 |
: Best middle-tier SP’s that are available?
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3:08 |
: Let’s be realistic, Hamels is middle tier now
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3:08 |
: Went and saw sano yesterday in lakeland. His family was there and they all look like him. Even the girls.
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3:08 |
: How many Poops do you give about the HR derby?
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3:09 |
: I like the derby. The derby is FUN.
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3:09 |
: And on that note, time for me to shuffle off for another week.
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3:10 |
: As a reminder, you can find my work here at FanGraphs and at DSzymborski on Twitter.
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3:10 |
: Hmm, I don’t think th at quite works.
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3:10 |
: Since I was the outlier, the chatter who wasn’t a FanGraphser.
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3:10 |
: Now it’s just assumed.
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3:10 |
: OK
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3:10 |
: How about
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3:11 |
: Thanks for coming all. GO AWAY AND DO OTHER STUFF?
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3:11 |
: I dunno, you figure it out.
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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
SIGN OFF: “and that’s the way it is…pphhhhtttttttt!”