Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/27/23

Dan Szymborski: Sorry I was slightly late, was finishing up my yearly trade dictator piece.

Kyle: Hey Dan! With Manfred staying on as commissioner thru another round of CBA negotiations, do you think we are headed toward another lockout? Missed games in 2027?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect we always were headed towards a less than smooth CBA after this one expires, but way too soon to tell if it results in missed games.

Dan Szymborski: On a fundamental level, the things that players are really unhappy about really haven’t changed all that much.

Dan Szymborski: Luxury tax threshold still grow slower than inflation and slower than MLB’s revenue growth.

Takao: Bryce Miller for Jonathan India – which team says no?

Dan Szymborski: I think Mariners actually, simply because I dont’ think they’re psychologically at the point at which they’ll move young pitching.

Ben: Did you do a ZiPS/Futures Game article this year?  I always liked reading those and didn’t see one come through.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t as I had other midseason stuff on my plate to do this time around. I’ll probably have some kind of minor league projection update before the end of the season

Oddball Herrera: My depression prediction:  The Giolito trade from last night is this deadline’s biggest one

Dan Szymborski: I certainly hope not!

Kim Ng Supporter: The Marlins have traded for about 5 second basemen in the past 3 years. Are they still somehow the best fit for a Jonathan India trade?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I think Mariners as mentioned above ought to have the most interest

Dan Szymborski: but I don’t think they’re interested in parting with someone who is contributing right now

Dan Szymborski: Their position in the playoff race is kinda precarious and I think they’d be far more willing to trade prospects

Ssssss: All these buyers can keep their grubby little paws off Belli. Cubs hard or soft buyers?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still not sure exactly whether the Cubs are buyers or sellers right now.

TjF167: Is it good for baseball that so many teams are at least claiming a stance of being “buyers “? Is that worth the increased # of playoff rounds?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it’s necessarily great for baseball or bad for baseball. Seems pretty neutral as most people hightly into trade deadline are the highly interested-already fans.

A Wasteland: With the recent trade, the only prospect LAA has in the top-100 is O’Hoppe…who has only failed to exhaust his eligibility due to significant injury.

This is a hell of a way to entire the post-Ohtani era.

Dan Szymborski: More playoffs means more teams that are buyers, but more playoffs also mean players have less impact on winning the division/league/WS, which can reduce the value of making those trades.

bob: Is Matt McClain really this good?  Has the draft pedigree for sure, but reviews before this season didn’t indicate this sort of breakout.  Seems like a .280 20/20 type for years to come.

Dan Szymborski: 130 wRC+ good? Probably not, but I think he’s very good.

Dan Szymborski: There was a huge disagreement between ZiPS and Steamer at the start of the year

Dan Szymborski: 76 wRC+ in Steamer, 103 in ZiPS, which is one of the bigger ones!

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had him as the #31 prospect

David: So If Giolito is fetching a top 100 prospect and an org top 10 guy, Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert would be most of a farm at this point right?

Dan Szymborski: You’ll have to give up at least two top 100 guys I think to land either

Not a Sox fan: From an outside perspective… why in the world would the ChiSox not trade Cease? Huge seller’s market and they STINK. Only reasons against it are he’s not having his best season and their division is so bad they could sneak in next year? Do you think they should trade or hold?

Dan Szymborski: I believe the White Sox have this deluded idea that staying the course will magically bounce them back in 2024

Royals: There really is no plan here, no?

Dan Szymborski: No good plan, at least.

Dan Szymborski: They fired Dayton Moore, but they didn’t fire his way of thinking

Dan Szymborski: Like when Darth Vader would “fire” an admiral

Dan Szymborski: Just because you “fire” Admiral Ozzel doesn’t mean that Admiral Piett has new ideas

Northside: Cubs are really on the bubble. Should Jed sell?

Dan Szymborski: I think it depends on the particulars of the offers

Dan Szymborski: If they’re underwhelming, I’d try to be more aggressive and buy

Dan Szymborski: but if teams are offering the farm and the bank that owns the loan on the farm’s land and the bank’s parent company, I might want to sell

Flat Gamin: 2d graphics would be called FLAT GAMIN

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Cris E: So maybe the Twins just needed a massive life-threatening biblical heat wave to get the bats going. Why didn’t their front office do this earlier?  (Sorry, just caught up in all the Hate The FO online energy. Can they do anything right, etc etc etc.)

Dan Szymborski: Camera switches to Thad Levine looking at his coal holdings and laughing

ROS: Where can I find the best description of how the ROS projections are formed for ZIPS ROS / ZIPS DC ROS?  Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: From me presumably?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS ROS is the daily updated projections for the rest of the season, with a simpler model than the big year-to-year one (for practical reasons, it takes more than a day to run a full set of projections)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS DC ROS is pro-rated to the depth chart

Zip zip zoop: How bad would Ozzie Albies’ lefty hitting have to get before you would want to see him go full righty? I’ve always held firm that even when he’s in one of his frustrating ruts as a lefty, it still beats watching the inevitable RvR sliders he would be chasing

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s near that point

David: If a team has even an eensy bit of a chance to make it to the postseason, why would they sell for prospects who (prospects being what they are) may never make it to the majors and have only a very eensy chance of becoming an impact player?

Dan Szymborski: Because, on a fundamental level, due to the playoff structure, baseball rewards quantity of playoff appearances rather than quality of the team in any given playoff appearance

Monly: Dan, can you please help me understand team discrepancies in wOBA and xwOBA?  For example, the Reds players seem to have larger than average discrepancies across the board where their expected stats are much worse than their “real” stats.

Monly: Follow up…is this a function of park factors?  Thank you

Dan Szymborski: I don’t calculate xwOBA, so it’s hard to say, though that’s certainly a possibility

Dan Szymborski: zStats in ZiPS *are* park-neutral

KCbbq: With Giolito being traded to the Angles what happens to Silseth? Is he out of a job and headed back to AAA?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be in relief at least

Dan Szymborski: I think the Angels ought to prioritize certainty right now

Cris E: I suppose it should have been obvious that if Arte was going to stay in then the Angels weren’t going to burn down anything. But it would still be interesting to hear the story behind the sea change yesterday night. Any chance this works out for them or is it all window dressing for signing the unicorn this winter?

Dan Szymborski: My belief is that they werent’ blown away by the packages offered for Ohtani

Dan Szymborski: The reality is that any player, no matter how absurdly awesome, has a limit on value in two months

Aaron Boone: What are the odds we turn things around with Judge back on Friday? If we don’t will I lose my job??

Dan Szymborski: Judge being back and healthy is huge, of course, but I think Boone’s gone if the Yankees don’t make the playoffs

Dan Szymborski: and the team has a number of problems that Judge can’t fix

Guest: Hey Dan, what do you think of Royals prospect, outfielder River Town? Hitting over .400 and walks a ton, rarely strikes out. Got some speed, a solid arm. Looks like a Cal Stevenson +++ to me, was hoping to get some insight after Eric didn’t write much on him in the Royals Prospect Write-Up. Fairly surprising since many Royals fans consider him a solid prospect.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s that much of a prospect honestly

Dan Szymborski: Guys that get a huge amount of their value from walks isn’t a good thing as a prospect

Dan Szymborski: Those guys tend to wash out somewhere on the way to the majors

Dan Szymborski: he has little power and little time in center

Dan Szymborski: He’s like Nick Madrigal super-lite

Dan Szymborski: Skim Nick Madrigal

Yo-Yo: Between Montgomery, Flaherty, Dejong, Stratton, Verhagen, and possibly Hicks (if the reported extension falls through), will STL get back enough prospect capital to build a cromulent pitching staff next season? They need a complete overhaul, and with dwindling payrolls in recent years compared to league spending, I’m not sure they can do it.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they can do it that quickly without some spending in free agency

Dan Szymborski: It’s not the flashiest group of pitchers

Alex: I’m contemplating adding more fun in my life. What do you think about me replacing my mouth wash bottle with a squirt gun pistol?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure there are more places to add fun than tooth brushing time

Dan Szymborski: Why not use a squirt gun as a condiment dispenser?

Too many Mooks: Even as a red sox fan in direct competition for a wildcard spot, I’m loving the Angels going for it. That is all.

J dizzle: Am I crazy to think Lance Lynn immediately becomes a mid rotation piece for either TB or LAD if traded to either?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s crazy

Phil: What is your sense of Alex Verdugo? Ignoring how he was acquired, which is not fair to keep over his head forever. Worth

Phil: My Verdugo question got cut off, sorry–I was going to ask about the likelihood/wisdom of an extension.

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a reasonable player to approach about a long-term extension, though it won’t be a huge one

Dan Szymborski: He’s a really solid player

Dan Szymborski: but we’re talking a 2-3 win guy, not a 4-5 one

Didace: How likely is it to score 4 runs in the 9th inning by going walk, walk, ground ball single, infield fly, hit by pitch, ground out to 2nd, intentional walk, walk, bouncer over 1st?

Dan Szymborski: Unlikely?

Dan Szymborski: There’s no way I can calculate that exact scenario in my ehad! lol

Pedro: Thoughts about who will take over as CLE SS?  Thx

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s pretty clear Arias is the guy for now

Guest: Dan what do you think the price for Erod looks like? Thinking from a Boston perspective who misses the big lefty

Dan Szymborski: I think the injury risk is enough that they get some good prospects, though I dont’ think anyone elite

Mike S: I know Eric is the prospect guru, but can you think of any examples of a hitting prospect who was running 35-40% K rates in the low minors that actually went on to improve and become big league regulars?  I’m thinking of Elijah Green here

Dan Szymborski: Oh god, I don’t have that memorized!

Dan Szymborski: Bryant was over 30% in low minors, IIRC, but that’s not 35-40

Dan Szymborski: Glenallen Hill

Dan Szymborski: Can we call Branyan successful?

Dan Szymborski: Gallo was at 37% in teh Sally League

Dan Szymborski: Pham 36% for Quad Cities

Dan Szymborski: Rob Deer’s percentage would be over tha ttoday

Dan Szymborski: but it’s not a huge list

Tell me the odds: That Corbin Burnes is traded

Dan Szymborski: 75-1

Dan Szymborski: Assumign we’re talking deadline

Yo-Yo: In general, how often do defenders get noticeably better after early struggles at a new position? I’m worried about Jordan Walker; I can’t recall a player going from worst-in-league type defense to anywhere near average.

Dan Szymborski: Players improve, but I can’t imagine it’ll be all THAT much

emh: The Guardians supposedly plan on using Thor in the rotation. Convince me that’s not a bad idea.

Dan Szymborski: Well, they sometimes have good luck with mediocre pitch-to-contact guys

Dan Szymborski: I’ll be honest, I think Thor is near cooked

Appa Yip Yip: With Ohtani off the board, who do you think is the best player that gets traded?

Dan Szymborski: Stroman?

Chip: While I personally think it’s a terrible idea and I’d be mad if my team made the decision, the Angels are kinda awesome for just pushing all their chips into the middle on this team. Agree?

Dan Szymborski: Once you’re not trading Ohtani, you gotta push your chips

Dan Szymborski: As I said yesterday, Après Ohtani, le déluge

Dan Szymborski: wtf

Dan Szymborski: apr

Dan Szymborski: dangit

Dan Szymborski: après Ohtani, le déluge

darrenasu: Bryce Miller for Jordan Westberg straight up…who says no? Who wins the trade?

Dan Szymborski: I actually like the idea

Word on the street: Does Blake Snell and Josh Hader get traded soon? Tear down in Padre land?

Dan Szymborski: I think Hader will be traded. Less sure of Snell

Guest: White Sox are the AL Rockies. Every year convinced they’re good and the previous year, when they were bad, was just bad luck

Peofry: Your playoff aspirant needs a 1B, would you rather trade for Cron or Santana?

Dan Szymborski: Surprised I’m saying this, but Santana

Holding onto prospects: I have/had Encarnacion Strand and Jonathan Aranda stashed, keep or cut?

Dan Szymborski: Certainly keep CES

Brooks: (I think Flat Gamin is meant to rhyme with MATT DAMON)

Colton: After seeing the Giolito return, the Cardinals have to feel pretty good about all the trade pieces they have ready to sell, right?

Dan Szymborski: Absolutely

Dan Szymborski: I originally had Quero going in my fantasy piece in a Bellinger/Stroman deal and this was a lighter return!

romorr: 2 of Cowser/Westburg/Kjerstad/Mayo as a starting point for Logan Gilbert? I realize it might not happen by the deadline. But as an offseason deal, yes?

Dan Szymborski: Two? I don’t think O’s do that

Dan Szymborski: At least as a *starting* point

Dan: How many teams are a three game winning/losing streak from changing their mind about buying verse selling

Dan Szymborski: Cubs perhaps

Dan Szymborski: Padres

Dan Szymborski: maybe M’s

C-Low: Don’t check my numbers, but Bautista is on pace to be the highest WAR player on a potential 100 win Orioles team.  How rare is it for a reliever to be the highest WAR player on a playoff team, let alone one that wins 100?

Dan Szymborski: It’s pretty rare. I can’t think off one off hand

Guest: What does ZiPs think about Brendan Donovan this year? He was good offensively last year, but this seems to be a lot more sustainable

Dan Szymborski: He’s pretty much the same!

DF: Hi Dan. Dayton born and raised here. Live in Seattle now but heading back next week. Any good food recs? Also, last week, when discussing EDC, you said, “People who think he’s A-Rod or Tatis are on crack.” Care to expound? I’m not suggesting he’s there yet, but other than pitch selection/hit tool, which he may yet develop, why can’t he be Tatis?

Dan Szymborski: You can actually get a decent hot pastrami now at this deli that opened up in Centerville

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think he’ll as well rounded offensively and hsi defensive value is worse

Dan Szymborski: All the Best I think it’s called

Dan Szymborski: good rugelach too

Dan Szymborski: haven’t tried the knishes

Dan Szymborski: sadly, they don’t do blintzes

Chippy: Does ZiPS love Julio Rodriguez, or is it in love with Julio Rodriguez?

Dan Szymborski: It would make babies with him if it were possible

Trea Turner: Have we hit rock bottom? Is there hope for the future?

Dan Szymborski: I think Turner will be fine eventually, though this year has been disappoitning

Zach Neto: How excited should I be long term about a 22 year old with above average barrel rate, strikeout rate, max EV, and sprint speed?

Dan Szymborski: I thinK Neto has a ton of value, but the Angels 2024 and beyond does not look promising

Oddball Herrera: Yes, my unofficial poll of Yankees fans I know came out with an overwhelming “We don’t care if they buy or sell this season, we just hope they fire Boone”

Spencer Steer: Is Steer really this good? Feels like he’s cooled a little bit lately but overall looked like another Reds rookie home run

Dan Szymborski: He’s not *that* far above his projections now

Appa Yip Yip: If a team trades for Tim Anderson, will he be able to hit baseballs again?

Dan Szymborski: He certainly has a chance, and injury hasn’t helped

Wrights Back: Dan, I love the content of FG, but the sheer amount of ads and videos put my browsers into overdrive.   It’s the only website I regularly visit that routines refreshes because it uses too much memory.  

Is this a ‘feature’ of the non paying version of the website?  Is there a digital Eden behind the paywall?  Please let me know!

Dan Szymborski: we offer an ad-free membership

Dan Szymborski: What it comes down to is that it pays for the site.

Thomas: Joey Gallo’s last season in the minors he had a 39% k rate, while his rate hasn’t improved, he is a big league regular

Insert Witty Name Here: Does Nola get less money than what was offered earlier in the year?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to say, we only know it was over 100 million

Dan Szymborski: depends how far over

Dan Szymborski: if you hang on, I can give a ZiPS 2024-2028 change

Dan Szymborski: I assume we’re not talking an Austin Nola extension!

Dan Szymborski: and Aaron

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Nola at 108 now

Dan Szymborski: and 131 at the start of the year

Ed: Dan – what words can express the disappointment you felt when CES made his debut, only to have ‘-Strand’ not appear on his jersey?

Dan Szymborski: Very much

Dan Szymborski: they should have stuffed HIS WHOLE NAME on the jersey

Terry: Coming from a gambler’s perspective, have you looked into the difference between a player’s projected value for the rest of the season and his projected value for TODAY’s game? Basic question is how to weight recent performance.

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t really looked at *that* exact angle

SH, Jr.: who is on the “untouchable for any reasonably likely return” line for the Orioles, in your opinion? Would you consider, e.g., Heston K as a headliner for any of the SPs likely to move?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’d move Kjerstad as part of the best SPs likely available

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’d move Henderson or Holliday

Guest: Russel Branyan accumulated 12 WAR over parts of 13 seasons. That’s “successful”, I suppose, but I would imagine it’s far less than hoped for out of a top-5 pick

Insert Witty Name Here: If you were to compare your successful writing career to any MLB players career, who would it be?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, Johnny Damon maybe?

Dan Szymborski: I think I’ve been pretty successful, but I’m certainly not amazing, and I doubt anybody considers me an A-lister among baseball writers

Dan Szymborski: but I’ve been around a long damn time now

Dan Szymborski: and I don’t get haircuts very often

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really think about my position and evaluating yourself is always going to be fraught with problems

Dan Szymborski: I try to do the best work I can and let whatever happens happen

Chris: Mike Elias will get cute at the deadline and add only 1 or 2 bulk RPs instead of a legit starter the Orioles need. Am I wrong?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly a possibility

Dan Szymborski: I can see the world in which the O’s get scared off by asking prices

Dobber: Should pitchers pitch to their strengths or to batters’ weaknesses?

Dan Szymborski: Both ideally!

Dan Szymborski: Though  you want to do what you do well

Kiké’s Infectious Smile: What is “xwOBAcon,” aside from a fun way to sneak the word “bacon” into a discussion of baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I think that was in fact the case

Cave Dameron: Dan, which one of your cats has the highest trade value? Thank you, very cool!

Dan Szymborski: Justinian I think. Him and Constantine are the youngest and Justinian has the more engaging personality

Dan Szymborski: Constantine is moody

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Trade offer: Cincinatti sends Skyline Chili to Connecticut for Clam Pizza.  Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Please not Connecticut

Medium Chungus: For about a 2 week window, it looked like Andrew Vaughn was about to break out…now it seems hes back to being a boring if-i-have-to 1B in a deep league. Is there any hope of him taking a step up or is this just who he is?

Dan Szymborski: I was hoping that this would be his year

Dan Szymborski: but it hasn’t really been and there’s less of a chance now

Sanford: Vouching for the ad-free membership—it makes a huge performance difference (and I’m of course glad to support the staff)

B’ryce Szymbobski: Fangraphs membership is totally worth it, fyi!

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, we weant people to have a good experience, but we *also* do want to pay our full-time staff competitively and *not* have a paywall

Dan Szymborski: Every choice is going to have a tradeoff.

Dan Szymborski: Light on ads for everyone probably means a paywall.

Dan Szymborski: Light on ads *and* no paywall probably means being part of a huge media coporation that doens’t necessarily need to turn a profit on us, but there are context risks there; one day everythin gmight pivot to video or something!

Dan Szymborski: At least that’s how I see it, I can only speak for myself, not in any official capacity here

Byron Denniston: Does ZiPs included batted ball data these days?

Dan Szymborski: Has for years

Farhandrew Zaidman: to continue to Johnny Damon comp – you’re a valuable asset, just not for the reasons people think, and probably overrated all things considered?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe?

Dan Szymborski: It’s guesswork

Dan Szymborski: There’s no stat line out there for a baseball writer to compare

Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky figuring out exactly what people think of you

Dan Szymborski: ESPN used to forget that I existed at times. But was that them or was it that I didn’t have enough appeal?

Dan Szymborski: And while I think there are valid reasons to like my work, I can think of valid reasons to not like me at all

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have a piece to finish, so I have to get going for this week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!