Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/28/22

Dan Szymborski: It’s chat time!

Dan Szymborski: And yes, that’s a Gordon Solie reference in the teaser for the link on the main page to this chat.

Champdo: So I saw something about how most tigers hitters vertical bat angle has gone down this year. Could that explain their hitting woes?

Dan Szymborski: I saw it too and in fact retweeted it! Whether it’s the factor or not is a trickier matter. Causation is a cruel mistress. But it’s at least *interesting* and worth a deeper exploration

Dan Szymborski: Maybe I’ll look at it in August at some point. But this week is TRADE DEADLINE MADNESS~!

Dan Szymborski: or it better be!

S_McAnderson: Should the Giants sell? Very unlikely to host the wildcard series and only 1 in 5 chance of even getting there. Slater, Ruf, Yaz, Joc, a host of Ps. They have a lot of pieces…

Dan Szymborski: I don’t get the impression that they intend to be sellers

Dan Szymborski: But given how much they’ve struggled very recently, opinions in-org could have changed

Appa Yip Yip: Y u no maek trade 4 blue Jays 🙁

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I only made seven!

Dan Szymborski: You want me to be murdered for submitting an 8000 word article?

Dan Szymborski: OR MAYBE YOU DO, HOW DARE YOU SIR

RTJ: Padres in on Soto? Does Abrams move the other way?

Dan Szymborski: *If* the Padres were to get Soto, it would be a challenge to do it, I think, without giving up Abrams

Dan Szymborski: They’d probably have to give up most of the prospects just behind Abrams

Dan Szymborski: And I can understand Washington’s position or at least what I imagine their position would be

Dan Szymborski: “We’re trading up the best player we’re likely to have this generation. Other teams are offering their best prospect in the package. So why shouldn’t we get yours?”

Dan Szymborski: Now, maybe the theoretical Padres have a package that rebuts that general assumption

Sodo Mojo: Are you surprised about how little the Yankees had to give up for Beneddeti?

Dan Szymborski: No, it’s actually fairly similar, in FV to the one I proposed

Dan Szymborski: It’s only two months of Benintendi. They weren’t getting Reynolds or Laureano with the same pckage

Guest: How can we expect the Cubs return for Happ to compare to Benintendi’s return? Twice as much? Three times?

Dan Szymborski: I hate multiplicatives of prospect value! It feels a bit like subtracting temperatures

Dan Szymborski: But nothing in the Benintendi trade makes me think t hey’ll get anything drastically different from what I suggested in my piece

Dan Szymborski: (which was a 45 and a couple 40s; Benintendi fetched a 40+, a 40, and an unranked)

Vlad’s Dad: Ross Atkins went on record saying that prices are very high at the moment, but the Benintendi trade makes me think otherwise. Do you think that deal set the market or do you think the vax status came with a discount?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of speculation that he is getting his vaccination

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it was as big a deal as some from the Yankees perspective once I sat and crunched the numbers

Dom Browski: Is Ramon Laureano likely to be moved before the deadline, and what would be his most probable destination?  Asking for a friend …

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s possible, but like Soto, I don’t think the A’s are necessarily in a rush

George: I’m seeing a lot of Padres-Soto rumors. With Gore hurt, Would Abrams, Hassell, Wood, Lesko, Merrill, and Zavala move the needle for you if you’re the Nats?

Dan Szymborski: For me, it would

Dan Szymborski: Though they can’t trade Lesko until after the WS

Scott A.: How you weigh?

Dan Szymborski: On a scale. There’s a 2 and then a couple numbers that are distressingly large

RTJ: What’s gone wrong with Josh Hader recently? Or is he just getting unlucky?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not worried. HRs are EXTREMELY volatile for pitchers

Dan Szymborski: especially pitchers who don’t throw a lot of innings

Matt: With Benintendi now in the Bronx, are the Yankees done shopping in the outfield? Does this take them out of the Soto race?

Dan Szymborski: I think it *likely* means that a Soto deal wouldn’t be a Yankee one if it happens now, but it would happen if it’s over the winter

Jason Kendall: Where does Jose Quintana ultimately land, and what does he bring back to the Bucs?

Dan Szymborski: I could actually see him ending up with the Braves. There’s a lot of risk with him, but the team could use a 3/4 inning eater dude

Dan Szymborski: The return will likely be lighter than Benintendi’s

Dan Szymborski: Unless I’m REALLY misreading the Quintana market

Guest: Joey Gallo is still fairly young, he could come back and hit over .200 some year, right?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Ironic joke trade…

Soto to the Mets…part of the package is the Mets have to pick up the rest of Scherzer’s deferred salary!

Zach: I’ve heard a lot lately about how teams have a system that assigns value to players, similar to baseballtradevalues.com. I assume this is purely on-field production, so how does a team also value the future monetary value a player brings in based on their stardom?

Dan Szymborski: It depends on the team, really.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have exact specifics, but I hear enough from teams that I can make educated guesses

Dan Szymborski: Most, I believe, are a bit less rigit than baseballtradevalues

Jon: Should the Yankees sell? Given where they are on the win curve and their huge lead in the division, could they shed some players and pick up some long term talent?

Dan Szymborski: Eh, I don’t think they want to make themselves weaker for the playoffs

Jonathan: If you had ZiPS do a “Top 10 Surplus Value” list based on contracts and projections for the next bunch of years, which players do you think would be on it?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I dont’ think it would be that much different than Ben’s list

Cave Dameron: What is the optimal temperature for sipping coffee? Thank you Dan!

Dan Szymborski: 100 or so. I don’t like drinks to be really hot

Dan Szymborski: If i have to delicately sip or burn my lip or tongue, it’s too hot for me

Jon: What is your favorite of your cursed OP-AI series?

Dan Szymborski: I might feel dumb in a minute, but what?

EP: As it stands right now, who has the higher trade value, Montas or Castillo?

Dan Szymborski: I would suspect Castillo by a bit

Ozzie Smallbies: what doez ZiPS think about

Dan Szymborski: Electric sheep

HenryS: What’s realistic for Bell to the Astros? One of Garcia/Javier and an average prospect?

Dan Szymborski: I would be shocked if someone the caliber of Garcia or Javier went in a theoretical Bell trade

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Bell’s value is appreciably different than, say, Benintendi’s. It’s two months of a B+ starter at a non-premium defensive position

Billy Eppler: Does Arte Moreno not want to trade Ohtani to me?  I offered him plenty of flawed position players and single A pitchers!

Dan Szymborski: Did you offer someone washed up too? He’s got have his name brand dudes

Jason Kendall: How does Max Meyer’s TJS affect the Marlins willingness to add him in a trade ala the Reynolds Rumors from the offseason?

Dan Szymborski: I actually suspect the Marlins are more likely to sell somebody than buy somebody!

James: Josh Bell to the Astros just makes sense right?

Dan Szymborski: I mean it does, but they REALLY love Yuli

Pat: You flying in for these Camden Yards 30th anniversary festivities? I figured you wouldn’t miss a luncheon with Mike Devereaux and Jeff Reboulet

Dan Szymborski: Is there a lunch? Nobody invited me!

Colton: Haven’t heard much buzz on Mahle, think he’ll be dealt somewhere by the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I actually suspect no

Dan Szymborski: The Reds seem to want to fire sale but also simultaneously maintain the illusion that they’re not

Dan Szymborski: Kinda like when they dumped half the team and then added Minor and Pham

Dan Szymborski: SEE WE’RE STILL COMPETITIVE

Jeff: If the Astros win the Bell sweepstakes, should they… bench Yuli? Or play Bell in a corner OF position and keep Yuli in the lineup?

Dan Szymborski: I would not imagine that he’d be in the outfield.

Dan Szymborski: I know the Nats played with it a bit last year

Guest: Imagine Meg’s reaction if instead of an 8,000 word article, you submitted an 80,000 one.

Oddball Herrera: This is the season we get a Keston Hiura change of scenery, no?  He needs to sink and swim in the majors at this point and the Brewers don’t have a place for him to do it

Dan Szymborski: DO they not really?

Dan Szymborski: McCutchen and Hiura are close enough that I’d be far more interested in seeing Hiura

Justin: What kind of contract do you see Brandon nimmo getting this off-season

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS says 4/77 because it’s still worried about playing time because history

thelaundry: I heartily agree with your tweet yesterday that the thought of Mike Trout only being a part-time DH for the rest of his career due to his back issues is just awful. How would you go about giving ZiPS the inputs to project what Trout’s next few years could be like in a limited capacity?

Dan Szymborski: HOW DARE YOU MAKE ME DO SUCH A CURSED PROJECTION!

Dan Szymborski: OK, I told ZiPS to assume he’s a DH with a current baseline expectation of 300 PA

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Now, be ashamed of what you have done.

Dan Szymborski: I hope the Royals trade Pasquantino for Hosmer

Appa Yip Yip: What’s up with Raimel Tapia? After a putrid two months to start the season he’s OPS’d over .800 in June and over .1000 in July. He’s all the way up to .1 WAR, which considering he was at -1 a month and a half ago is pretty good!

Dan Szymborski: He’s had a good run, but I’m still in the camp of “0.5 WAR player had a really awful 2.5 months and then a really solid 1.5 months”

Guest: Would you try to find a replacement to the Jake Meyers/Chas McCormick platoon? Not sure if Reynolds of Mullins would be a meaningful upgrade given the likely steep asking price

Dan Szymborski: I actually think Mullins would be a very hard get now

Dan Szymborski: Reynolds more practical, though it may not be this week

Chris: Think kelenic gets traded? Should mariners fans be rooting for the team to hold onto him or rooting for whatever return we can get. Aka are you in or out on his future stardom?

Dan Szymborski: I think he goes in a change-of-scenery trade in the winter

Appa Yip Yip: Package around Jordan Groshans for Ian Happ make sense?

Dan Szymborski: That’s about the type of player I can see the Cubs getting a few of

Dan Szymborski: White Sox fans were mad that I cleared a chunk of their top 10 list

Dan Szymborski: but those names are only in the top 10 because the sox system is very very very weak at the top

Dan Szymborski: But Groshans/Eden/Frasso or something?

Dan Szymborski: Just to pull names out of my ass with zero time to sit and ponder, I dunno, Groshans,

Dan Szymborski: THOSE ARE OUT OF ORDER

JD: Does Sean Murphy fetch a top 100 prospect and a organizational top 10 prospect in a trade?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Chris: Who do you think the worst player in MLB, who if they were their current self in triple A and 22 years old, would be the top prospect in baseball? Why is that person Dylan Moore?

Dan Szymborski: lol

Dan Szymborski: I’m not even sure how to start thinking of that one

Dan Szymborski: But on a related subject

Dan Szymborski: that’s kind of like that

Dan Szymborski: When I ran some five year ZiPS to aid Ben in the ranks

Dan Szymborski: Since I didn’t have the right MLBAM ID for Miguel Rojas

Dan Szymborski: When ZiPS was reprojecting everyone

Dan Szymborski: it took RED SOX Miguel Rojas biographical information

Dan Szymborski: So naturally, when ZiPS was projecting that at the end of the next five years, that Miguel Rojas would have an OPS+ of 130, I had to go back in!

grover: Hi, Dan. In your last chat you proposed sending Montas to Minnesota for Austin Martin and two injured pitchers. Can we get re-do?

Dan Szymborski: I like Martin more than most, it seems

The Great Giambino: I just checked a couple places on odds certain players get moved by the deadline. Frankie Montas is at -145 to stay in Oakland and that feels suuuuuper high to me

Dan Szymborski: Well remember, the A’s don’t have to move him RIGH TNOW

Matt: Everyone seems to be talking about the Guardians selling some pitching, and to be fair they *have* done an awful lot of that lately, but shouldn’t they be acquiring pitching? Their rookie position players are enjoying tremendous success so far, with several more still to come. They seem a couple arms short of true contention.

Aaron: Thoughts on Gordon Solie Motherfuckers ()?

Guest: The correct answer to “How you weigh?” is “With the scales from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.”

Rocco Baldelli: Is Jose Miranda for real, and has he secured a full time role yet?

Dan Szymborski: I think mostly

Dan Szymborski: and he ought to

Dan Szymborski: it’s funny given how down people suddenly became on him after his first month

Dan Szymborski: even people who should know better

Dan Szymborski: And if you’re stilld own on him, check out how he’s played lately!

Guest: I was clearing my phone the other day and found a screenshot I’d taken in 2016 because something you wrote in your chat made me laugh. Upon reading it six years later, I laughed again. Keep up the good work.
You reckon JD Martinez/Robertson/Chafin would be sufficient/realistic for the Mets?

Dan Szymborski: Do you remember what it was?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Mets might just roll with JD/Big Dan

Guest: You’ve mentioned a couple of times before that ZiPS likes Mark Vientos. Given the dearthy production the Mets have received at DH, should he get a shot soon? Or do you get the impression, like a lot of people in the Twitterverse, that the Mets would prefer to use him as trade bait? At this point, I feel like I’d rather see them part ways with Smith and/or Davis and give him a shot.

Dan Szymborski: Related question

Dan Szymborski: I know I wrote about this SOMEWHERE

Dan Szymborski: but I suspect that if the Mets were really high on Vientos, they already have had good opportunities to use him

Dan Szymborski: I think that he’s a trade possibility

GA Blood: Has there been any consideration to feeding zips updates to the 3-year projections section on player pages throughout the season? As a reference, Ben is documenting Jazz Chisholm’s projected ZIPS WAR at 2.4 and 2.5 the next two years but his player page says 1.4 and 1.6.

Dan Szymborski: First off, the three years are only run before the season, not updated

Dan Szymborski: And second, Ben got the privilege of Full Fat ZiPS rather than the low-calorie in-season one that needs to be used daily, for practical reasons

Mordo: Which backend starter interests you; Quintana, Smyly, or Mahle?

Dan Szymborski: Quintana if he’s as cheap as I suspect, Mahle if he’s not

Dan Szymborski: As for Smyly, never trust a dude who, after hearing SOMETIMES Y, uses it twice in five letters

Mordo: Who says no?
NYY acquires Ian Happ & Mychal Givens
CHC acquires Gallo, Medina, and Yoendrys Gómez

Dan Szymborski: The Yankees, presumably

Dan Szymborski: YOu meant Luis Medina, right?

Dan Szymborski: because I imagine if his name came out the Cubs would SHOUT DONE NOBACKSIES midsentence

Kendrys Morales and the Big Steppers: Do you have a sense of how much Montas’ shoulder blip affected his deadline trade value? Could the A’s expect a similar return in the offseason if they held him and he proved he was fully healthy and effective? Or is he still likely to be more valuable now?

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s always a risk. Without waiver trades, there’s no second shot at picking up a bad contract or something

Dan Szymborski: And two careful starts post shoulder inflammation, I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t in the back of my mind

Dan Szymborski: Castillo had a sore shoulder too, a more significant one

Dan Szymborski: but that was before the season and he’s gotten a lot of solid pitching in since

Dan Szymborski: If the A’s get offers that reflect some kind of injury risk, I think they hang onto him

Morbo: I think jon is asking for your favorite output list from your ai naming things series

Dan Szymborski: Ah, OK, I was confused

Dan Szymborski: My favorite AI thing has to be either the clickbait headlines or the Florida Man generator

Dan Szymborski: Baseball CLickbait

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Florida Man

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: And I also trained it on Key & Peele football names

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: Are you a Miss Shirley’s person?

Dan Szymborski: I have been there, but if I’m in Baltimore and out for breakfast things, it’s far more likely that it’s Hampden rather than Roland Park

Dan Szymborski: Probably the place I’ve eaten the most in Baltimore when going back for breakfast/brunch is Golden West on 36th

JC: Dan, you have to choose for the sake of your life – black beans or pinto beans in your chili.  Which do you go with?

Dan Szymborski: Black beans

Homer: You have a good sense of humor…assuming that means you weren’t a looker as a young man either?

Dan Szymborski: Nor as a middle-aged man!

Dan Szymborski: Someone once sent me a message informing me I looked like a cross between Shrek and Hermann Göring. It’s not OBVIOUSLY wrong

Guest: Do you think the smarter teams (or ZIPS) have any projection capabilities for players who changed their breakfast plans, or is the history of players just too limited to draw meaningful trends? (Laureano, Jorge Polanco circa 2018, etc.)

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Dan Szymborski: I rarely get to see an actual team projection

Dan Szymborski: A lot of teams ask, but if I sell a team or an agency data, it’s one-way of that kind of info, I hit a button, send the data, get the standard fee, and I don’t offer an opinion.

Uncle Spike: How does ZIPs feel about Bryan Ramos?  If was very high on him prior to this season and he’s had very similar results as before.  Slightly above average player that’s really young for his age.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS still likes him a ton!

Dan Szymborski: See 25 hr power from him in majors eventually

HappyFunBall: The older I get, the more I like to think that I too am really young for my age

Dan Szymborski: I *physically* feel 44 because of my back, but I don’t feel psychologically 44 and certainly not 44 in maturity

Dan Szymborski: I thought I’d be more sophisticated at 44

Dan Szymborski: I basically do what I did at 5 (play with baseball stats, write, record into a tape recorder as a radio show, play video games) but just get paid for a lot of that now

Dan Szymborski: (In fact, paid for all four thing since I wrote about Hearthstone and OVerwatch for ESPN)

Dan Szymborski: Now, I do actually radio shows, I don’t mean I still carry around a tape recorder and record an imaginary radio show complete with commercials

Dan Szymborski: That would be kinda weird

Dan Szymborski: And yeah, five-year-old Dan did commercials. He was already a shameless capitalist pig!

Appa Yip Yip: Don’t you listen to a ton of classical music isn’t that sophistication have movies about psychotic rich people been lying to me my whole life

Insert Witty Name Here: You’re one of the best writers and stat guys on one of the most popular baseball websites in the world. How much more sophisticated do you want to be? A monocle maybe?

Dan Szymborski: I do listen to a ton of classical music, but I don’t think the stereotype of a classical music buff is an unshaven, uncombed man in gym shorts playing Grand Theft Auto to Bruckner

Dan Szymborski: I think this is more the stereotype

Dan Szymborski:

The Great Giambino: Whoa whoa whoa, you wrote about two of my favorite games for ESPN and I had no idea?!?! Butter my butt and call me a biscuit, I’ve got to reorganize my afternoon

Dan Szymborski: ESPN closed down their esports section in some of the cutouts, sadly!

Dan Szymborski: https://www.espn.com/esports/story/_/id/14927394/dan-szymborski-nostal…

Dan Szymborski: I got to do a couple card reveals

Dan Szymborski: https://www.espn.com/esports/story/_/id/17999260/hearthstone-mean-stre…

Dan Szymborski: Also revealed that card that I think gave +2/+2 to a beast and drew a card N’zoth’s hand or something?

Dan Szymborski: Mark of Y’Shaarj!

Dan Szymborski: forgot it

Dan Szymborski: Got to interview Daniel Negreanu *only* about Hearthstone

Dan Szymborski: https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/conversation-poker-star-daniel-negreanu-…

Appa Yip Yip: It should be have you seen Bill and Ted’s excellent adventure Beethoven was a mess

Anton Bruckner: Okay, which of my symphonies is your favorite?

Dan Szymborski: Seventh

Dan Szymborski: I’ll always have a warm feeling for the seventh because that was my Bruckner introduction

Dan Szymborski: Back in high school, for wind ensemble, every *hated* doing marching band and the teacher, Mr. Karow, wasn’t into it either, so we basically abandoned it after my freshman year

Dan Szymborski: And Mr. Karow was big on 20th century English music and late romantics, so we got to play a lot of that stuff

Dan Szymborski: So combined with orchestra, we played Bruckner’s 7th

Dan Szymborski: we played a ton of Ralph Vaughan Williams and Percy Grainger

Dan Szymborski: If it was something with piano, I’d play that instead because I’m a way better pianist than a baritone horn player

Johnny Tuttle: Did your love of classical music ever veer into opera? It did for me in my 40s, and now my Spotify only recommends The Pharcyde, Freddie Gibbs and Verdi

Dan Szymborski: Opera’s probably my weakest spot

Dan Szymborski: I think because I understand instrumental music better than vocal music

Dan Szymborski: Because I can play a lot of instruments, mainly quite competently

Dan Szymborski: and I sing like, to steal Oswalt’s joke, Tom Carvel gargling glass

Dan Szymborski:

Jesse: I understand that you were constrained by word count, but what trade would you have made for the Mariners?

Dan Szymborski: I was actually going to give them Soto instead

Dan Szymborski: but other people had been workshopping Soto already

Dan Szymborski: so I went to the Giants, which people weren’t talking as much about

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a possibility the M’s get SOto

San Dzymborski: #4 reliever in rest-of-career WAR?

Dan Szymborski: Devin Williams

Dan Szymborski: Ahead of him are Clase, Hader, and Johnny Lasagna

Steven: What are you playing right now?

Dan Szymborski: playing through the falcom trails games because with the asian release of kuro no kiseki, someone on 4chan’s going to have the english patch ready soon

Dan Szymborski: And yeah, I know, 4chan, but there are few better places to find fan-translations for Japanese games

Morbo: My wife is a classically trained opera singer and she’s very good. I love to hear her sing but her talent is kind of wasted on me because I don’t really understand the nuance and skill required to do what she can do. I also know next to nothing about opera, but I don’t care I could listen to her sing all day every day

Liz: Italian comic opera is pretty great, especially if you can watch a performance with singers who have good acting/timing talent as well. Barber of Seville is hilarious and has some of my favorite musical writing (there’s a great six part harmony at the end of the first act that is maybe my favorite opera bit ever)

chilly: what instruments do you play best?

Dan Szymborski: piano, organ (as in with the foot pedals and all) then a step down to the lower-pitched brass instruments, clarinet, recorder

Guest: Hey Dan, would you happen to have WAR projections on Nico Hoerner for the remainder of his time under team control? I was surprised to not see him at least honorable mention on the trade value column. Other than avoiding injuries, what would he need to do to make the l

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, hang on a sec

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him at 7.2 WAR over next 3 years

Guest: can you think of a more lopsided trade in the last 10 years than Josh fields for yordan?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: oh hai

Guest: Is there a form of media more restrictive to the general public than opera?

Dan Szymborski: lieder?

Dan Szymborski: At least in opera you can see stuff happening

Dan Szymborski: nobody really acts out schubert songs while singing them

Dan Szymborski: though that would be funny

$11 Worth of Taco Bell: What’s the % that neither Ohtani nor Trout play for the Angels in 2023?

Dan Szymborski: 5%

Dan Szymborski: Maybe less

Dan Szymborski: neither

Dan Szymborski: I did either

Dan Szymborski: <1%

HappyFunBall: I don’t know if Hermann Goring actually wore a monocle, but I feel like if YOU did that it would really complete the look

Jeb: Did you expect to be a digital dandy at 44?

Dan Szymborski: No, but Murray Chass opened my eyes

Dan Szymborski: http://www.murraychass.com/?p=9701

Dan Szymborski: On that note, we’ve gone an hour and a half, so I gotta take off.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

Dan Szymborski: Hopefully we’ll see you all next week

Dan Szymborski: FOR POST MORTEM

Dan Szymborski: (You know, you can always hit me up on twitter for a burning q)