Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/3/25

Dan Szymborski: It’s time for a Szymborski chat
The man is sarcastic and fat
He’ll zing with a smirk
and plug his own work
and pretend that ZiPS WAR is a fact

Guest: Do we need a better way of calculating free agent contracts? Devers contract may be underwater but I would rather pay devers 8 240 (what’s rest on his contract) than vlad 14 500 or whatever insane number Kyle Ticker is going to get. Seems like a Devers would be the cheapest way to get talent / WAR on your team

Dan Szymborski: It’s complicated philosophically!

Dan Szymborski: And we tend to go through cycles. There’s a period where teams spend a lot and then there’s regret and everyone starts getting stingy for a year or two

Endy Chavez: Is Brandon Nimmo intentionally trading walks for home runs? Should he trade back?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, his swing rate bump is fairly small, I’m not sure sure how conscious a decision is made

J.P. Tootblan IV, Esq.: The Cubs had 3 runners erased on the bases 2 days ago (runner out trying to score on a WP and 2 guys picked off at first) meaning the pitcher for the Guardians completed the inning without getting any batters out. Is there a more embarrassing way for a team to squander 3 outs?

Dan Szymborski: You should see some of my games of MLB the Show when a runner is being really conservative and I mess up with the controls

dylan: What kind of return would Felix merit if the Os sent him out at the deadline this year? Not that I want that to happen, but it feels like he may be the highest value piece to move for them

Dan Szymborski: He’d certainly fetch a pretty good prospect, but it wouldn’t be some crazy haul. I dont’t hink theO’s are doing it

Mad Hatter: Why is a raven like a writing desk?

Dan Szymborski: They both are involved in writing angry letters to the Baltimore Sun?

Dan Szymborski: (actually, I have no idea if any Baltimore Ravens have written angry letters to the Baltimore Sun, but it would  fit the joke)

Dan Szymborski: Even though Lewis Carroll had no idea what a Baltimore Raven is

Look At This Sotograph: I’ve been wondering if predictive ERA stats don’t work as well for starting pitchers with only 2 pitches, like Ben Brown and Brandon Pfaadt.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t noticed that; generally a guy who has problems with limited repertoire will have it reflect here

Tree: Who was the best baseball player of all time

Dan Szymborski: Not touching that one!

Bubba: Matthew Boyd is good now?  What’s he doing?

Dan Szymborski: He was good when he was healthy last year too!

Dan 2.0: Does chase rate only include when you swing and miss, or is it still a chase if you make contact outside of the zone? What if someone truly likes hitting a pitch in a certain place outside of the zone?

Dan Szymborski: If we’re talking statcast, it’s swings outside the zone

Dan Szymborski: And the latter is certainly possible – if so, they’ll tend to have a predictive higher contact rate against those pitches and hti those more effectively

Dan 2.0: Have any pitchers really made an effort to throw curve balls at the top of the zone? Every time I see it happen and the pitch is high enough it’s taken for a strike or it gets an awkward swing. It just has to be really high.

Dan Szymborski: The problem is that a mistake at the top of the zone with a curve will end up being a home run derby pitch

Paul: I picked up Jason Junk this week which I thought I would regret and ended up getting a decent start last night. Do I keep him up for his Monday start against Cincy?

Dan Szymborski: Call me skeptical

Thomas Bayes: Do you have a favorite statistical model?

Dan Szymborski: Not really

polinating from my ipad: is tyler freeman the prototype the rockies should draft instead of tall lumbering prospects who strike out all the time?

Dan Szymborski: Coors Field does give the Rockies a vested interest in good-contact hitters

Dan Szymborski: but power too. BABIP is naturally VERY high in COors

Dan Szymborski: But you do want them to have more power

Dan Szymborski: in other words, trade SOME power for contact, but not a ton. Don’t go Willy Taveras

Oaktown Blues: Have you ever tried playing Beat the Streak? Do you think you could use ZiPS to win it?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t. I’m not really a gambler personality wise. I’ll place prop bets where ZiPS sees a big EV+.

Dan Szymborski: Note that I *never* bet on any NL award props any longer since there’s always a good chance I’ll vote on one of them

polinating from my ipad: would you promote Karros to AAA now?  Does Zips love McCade Brown as much as I love his stats?

Dan Szymborski: If Karros is healthy, then yes. He’s not super young, so no reason to be cautious

Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to run McCade Brown

Dan Szymborski: (I’ll circle back, and in the actual, not the Jen Psaki way)

Dan Szymborski: Write now, Brown has peaking with ERA+s in the 98/99 range, which isn’t bad

Dan Szymborski: “write now”

Dan Szymborski:

Fredbird: is the Bryan Reynolds deal a fair comp to lock up Donnie baseball long term?!

Dan Szymborski: I’m about to get embarrassed when my dumb brain realizes who you’re talking about, but you’re not talking about Solano, are you?

Oaktown Blues: Dear Mr. ZiPS, there are too many Cal Raleigh homers these days. Please eliminate 3. I am not a crackpot.

Guest: What do you think of Matthew Liberatore going forward? Has he done enough to be looked at as a mid rotation guy?

Dan Szymborski: I think there is reasonable enough info to call him a mid-rotation guy. He’s probably not going to have full season runs like the first six weeks of the season

Inverse Ohtani: So I came across the fact that you decided to give Austin Hedges a pitching projection for whatever reason. He has only the 45th worst ROS ERA projection and 2nd worst FIP projection (poor Luis Mey). He also has the 2nd best BABIP projection for a pitcher at .255! I don’t even know what to ask other than “What!?”.

Dan Szymborski: Most likely rounding on a guy with just a few projected innings

Dan Szymborski: His 2026 projection right now is a .302 BABIP in 10 innings

Guest: when is MLB finally going to ban injuries

Dan Szymborski: If MLB had the ability to ban injuries, they’d just propose a rule that teams get two yellow flags a month they can use to undo an injury rather than just banning injuries

GA Blood: With sanitation workers striking in Philadelphia it’s nice that fans finally think something in the city stinks worse than Brandon Marsh, who is pretty good! Are you buying his improvement in K%? A guy with a career .370 BABIP getting 6% more balls in play seems like a big deal.

Dan Szymborski: The contact rate is probably not QUITE justifying that big of an improvement, but he is having his best contact year

Lord Thunder: Is Mark Vientos just in a slump, or is this his true talent level?

Dan Szymborski: slump

J: Is ZiPS coming around on Tucker? He’s already surpassed his ZiPS WAR projection for the year with the peripherals to boot.

Dan Szymborski: Most of the Steamer/ZiPS gap is gone now

guest: I’m guessing it’s Brendan Donovan but never in my life heard him called donnie baseball lmao

Dan Szymborski: ah, I hadn’t heard that

Dan Szymborski: I think the Reynolds contract is too rich. His FA is years off and STARTS at his age 31 season

Guest: Just traded Logan Henderson for Jo Adell in a keeper league? Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: meh

Honkus Wagner: what do you make of Jordan Walker at this point? change of scenery candidate? wondering if Bloom and co move him at deadline to help clarify playing time for others

Dan Szymborski: I think if anyone has ideas on how to fix him, it’s tnot the Cardinals

Guest: Brenton Doyle’s home and away splits have been pretty striking since last season. If he gets traded, would his projections take a significant hit?

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, home/away splits individualized are so noise that they’re nto erally predictive until you have like a decade of play

Donnie Baseball: Don Mattingly? I don’t know what Zips says, but my gut tells me he’s in the decline phase.

Dan Szymborski: That was my first thought, but even my dumb brain won’t be tricked into thinking Mattingly’s still playing

Datt Mamon: Ranger Suarez is pretty much my only competent pitcher right now. I want to keep him for next year, but someone is offering Bubba Chandler. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I really like Bubba Chandler, but is this straight up?

Mike: How much have you played with visualization within your vast amount of generated data? I feel as though some simple applications of d3.js or even just some fancy tableau work could definitely add a lot to both the presentability of ZiPS as well as the ability to spot trends and insights.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not really a big visualization guy

Dan Szymborski: I’m good at reading a wall of numbers

Dan Szymborski: and the type of person who cares about the ZiPS projections, whether professionally or for entertainment, REALLY seems to prefer I cram as much data into a space as I can

Dan Szymborski: Now, if someone has an idea on a specific visualization that would help the public use the data, I’m all ears

Okra: In a year where selling teams don’t have much to offer, will be tough for Arizona to resist selling, right?  Would have 2 (Suarez, Naylor) of the 3 (Ozuna) best hitters available and likely the best/cheapest reliever (S Miller).

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re resisting that well given that they’ve already dropped some hints

Rich: During his AAA rehab assignment (58 plate appearances), Zach Gelof has dramatically increased his walk rate (to 27.6 %) and decreased his strikeout rate (to 19%). Do you see any likelihood that this newfound patient approach sticks at the MLB level, and if so, how would that affect his ROS projections? He showed 30-30 potential in half a season in 2023, but a big strikeout rate (34.4%) hindered him last year.

Dan Szymborski: rehab assignments are weird; I wouldn’t read TOO much into it

Dan 2.0: I would love to see a full analysis of the how each Braves hitter performed two years ago versus now.

Dan Szymborski: “Better”

Guest: Who’s got a better chance of being a bigger impact power bat for the Orioles ROS, Cowser of O’Neill? Thanks, Dan!

Dan Szymborski: I’d take Cowser, simply because any hitter coming back from a sore shoulder is going to worry me short term

War2d2: The Guardian had a pretty damning piece about the A’s situation, including the fact that Fisher doesn’t have enough cash on hand to meet the minimum amount needed to unlock the public funds and that The Trump Economyᵀᴹ has raised building costs enough that even with public funds he’ll have less than half the dollars required to get a stadium built. What’s your best guess for what happens now? Does he find an investor that will make up the difference, or do you think the other owners will finally have enough and force a sale? The latter seems to be what’s happening in Tampa right now. What’s your best guess for where the A’s are playing in five years?

Dan Szymborski: I imagine if this goes into limbo without a conclusion and the A’s are facing a sojourn in Sacramento without an expiration date, MLB will start turning the screws on them

Dan Szymborski: If he did screw over John Fisher, I think that’s one thing that everyone should agree to be happy with the president about

Mariners Truther: Is there any reason to have hope for Emerson Hancock?

Dan Szymborski: He does sound like an 1830s poet, so he has that going for him

Dan Szymborski: He’s just been a really easy guy for batters to wait on and hit

Ernie Brockoglio: The exact date Jac Caglionone will start mashing is ….

Dan Szymborski: When he gets a bag of potatoes

mmddyyyy: What FanGraphs content do you recommend to people that haven’t visited the site before?

Dan Szymborski: Laurila interviews

mmddyyyy: On the player side, what’s the most popular jersey number?

Dan Szymborski: Wasn’t 22 the most popular at some point, or am I losing my mind?

polinating from my ipad: I watched the pianist this year.  more or less sad than watching mike toglia play baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I mean more, seriously

drplantwrench: are the z expected stats (zOPS, zSLG) going to be on fangraphs’ dashboards?

Dan Szymborski: eventually

Dan Szymborski: I’m trying to figure out if a simpler model will work, or if it will lose to much value from latent variables

Dan Szymborski: because right now, it’s non parametric regression, so I can’t give a simple formula for the website to deal with

Rex Manning Day: ZiPS’ ROS wRC+ for Judge has come down a bit, but is still an absurd 192. Out of curiosity, what’s the highest wRC+ projection you can recall ZiPS pumping out?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have wRC+ all the way back, but I do have OPS+, let me pull that up

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had Judge with a 180 OPS+ coming into the season. The historical ZiPS projections of 180 or higher

Dan Szymborski: Name MLBAM Year Tm Age PO BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR   Barry Bonds 111188 2005 SF 40 LF .321 .541 .690 235 9.6   Barry Bonds 111188 2006 SF 41 LF .308 .493 .669 210 6.2   Albert Pujols 405395 2004 STL 24 LF .359 .448 .667 198 9.8   Barry Bonds 111188 2004 SF 39 LF .309 .504 .638 197 7.2   Albert Pujols 405395 2006 STL 26 1B .337 .434 .652 190 9.0   Albert Pujols 405395 2005 STL 25 LF .347 .435 .659 189 9.4   Albert Pujols 405395 2009 STL 29 1B .328 .433 .606 186 7.7   Albert Pujols 405395 2010 STL 30 1B .333 .442 .635 185 9.0   Albert Pujols 405395 2007 STL 27 1B .320 .426 .643 183 8.1   Mike Trout 545361 2020 LAA 28 CF .294 .438 .617 183 7.4   Mike Trout 545361 2019 LAA 27 CF .291 .433 .590 180 8.3

Dan Szymborski: wow, that looks like garbage

Dan Szymborski:

mmddyyyy: Can a US player sign at 16?

Dan Szymborski: 18

Guest: What odds would you put on Jordan Walker developing into an average everyday player?

Dan Szymborski: 3-1

Guest: Is Chapman worth a top 100 prospect for the Red Sox?

Dan Szymborski: If so, back end and not part of a big package

Dan Szymborski: I still think the Cubs were insane to give up so much

J Peterman: So, Luis Ortiz is probably in some trouble, huh?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s just say it’s not looking great

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know the underlying facts thougH!

Steve Cohen: Does ZiPS think David Stearns’ strategy of not acquiring any  elite pitchers because theyre pitchers has struck midnight?

Dan Szymborski: Since pitchers break, it’s not a terrible strategy at all!

Laz Montes: Is he inevitable? Comparables to Yordan might not be so wrong after all…

Dan Szymborski: He’s looking increasingl8y monstrous!

Junior Canyonero: What would you do with roster construction when Kim comes up if you were the Rays?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, he’s the obvious SS since that’s what they signed him to be and they haven’t traded Lowe

Biscuit: Any hope for a Brenton Doyle turnaround? Looks like he is way underperforming his xStats

Dan Szymborski: I do have hope. He’s underperforming similarly in the zips version

Yolmer Carlos Sanchez: Who will be the White Sox all star this year? Shane Smith has had a rough stretch, it seems to be between him, Chase Meidroth, and somehow, Miguel Vargas.

Dan Szymborski: This is one of those really weird rosters where it may be someone random like Steven WIlson just because his ERA looks good or Andrew Benintendi because name recognition and having a better year than Robert

jersey numbers: would you adjust for retired numbers if actually studying this

Dan Szymborski: I guess you would have to

Dan Szymborski: since a lot of teams have retirements in the single digits

Smilinjack: Any chance the Braves tear up Acuna’s deal after the season and give a new extension?

Dan Szymborski: tear up? Probably not, as I can’t see them walking away from the 3/51 they basically have him for after this season. But I could see them open to discussing a lucrative extension

Guest: What type of profile guy are the tigers going to get before the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I actually think Detroit will be pretty aggressive

Dan Szymborski: This may be their best opportunity and it comes whiel they still have some payroll flxibility if they choose to exercise it

dingle dan: Zips see Judge finishing close to 11 WAR and would be his 3rd 11 War season in 4 years. It would be hard to fathom but how likely is it that he catches Trout?

Dan Szymborski: I think fairly low

Dan Szymborski: I think Judge is amazing, but he’s also 33 and nearly *30* WAR behind

Datt Mamon: Re: Sanchez/Chandler: Current offer is straight up and I will admit that’s another reason I’m hesitating

Dan Szymborski: Meh, I’d role with ranger

Dan Szymborski: roll

Dan Szymborski: what is it with me and wrong word choice today?

drplantwrench: should Jo Adell have been the AL Player of the Month?

Dan Szymborski: no way

Dan Szymborski: He wasn’t better than Raleigh

Dan Szymborski: and it not Raleigh, I’d have chosen Green or Buxton also

Dan Szymborski: on that note, it’s 1 PM and time for me to hit the old dustry trail

Dan Szymborski: dusty

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming, and I hope to see you all next week!

Dan Szymborski: weirdly, no cat or lunch questions this week, so I hope the people who normally ask those are OK