Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/10/15

Dan Szymborski: Up jump the boogie.

Dan Szymborski: First off, our Electoral Brawllege business.

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Comment From E
Who wins the AL East?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Blue Jays are now the *very* slight favorite. This weekend was huge.

Comment From Steve
Favorite board game?

Dan Szymborski: Not the best board game by a long shot, but Monopoly still my favorite because of memories and nostalgia. We used to play a real money variant of monopoly.

Dan Szymborski: You’d have a group of people split up $1514 ($15140 a little much) and then the winner changes in the money and everyone splits what’s left in the bank

Comment From Josh G
Are we in the midst of a Gregory Polanco 2nd half breakout?

Dan Szymborski: I sure as hell hope so

Comment From Tom
Sources: JP Howell is still warming up in the PNC Park Bullpen

Comment From Art Vandelay
6’20”!!!!

Dan Szymborski: He’s made of radiation too.

Comment From Saves Vulture
Best bet to get the most saves in Oakland and Detroit ROS?

Dan Szymborski: I expect Wilson to still end up with the most saves if his shoulder is OK.

Dan Szymborski: And I see Doolittle’s return optimistic enough that he’ll end up with the most

Comment From HR
ZiPS RoS projects a higher WAR for Shields in 10 starts than he’s had in 24 so far this season. What gives?

Dan Szymborski: The ZiPS projects a higher WAR for Shields in his last 10 starts than in his first 24 starts because ZiPS projects Shields to be worth 0.11 WAR per start the rest of the season whereas his seasonal performance has been 0.04 fWAR per start.

Dan Szymborski: Oh one last thing. To the guy last week who could tell steroid users by looking at them, please link the list of players you made that are most likely to be the next one busted for steroid use. I assume you made the list because I am making an assumption that you are totally not full of crap.

Comment From Somerville Phil
I don’t mean to join in the overreaction to JB, Jr’s good day, but what’s a reasonable goal for the guy in a full season? What would he have to hit to be 2-WAR players with primary value on D?

Dan Szymborski: Still think he can be better than he has been, but he’l likely going to have to get an OPS+ in the 80 range to be all that interesting.

Comment From Ryan
Shouldn’t the Tigers try and dump V-Mart’s contract through revocable waivers?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Os
Should the O’s try to resign Davis due to the fact that Flaherty is next on the depth chart and Christian Walker is not a very intriguing prospect

Dan Szymborski: They shoudl at least try (and give a QO), but the team is very passive an dI don’t expect them to win any kind of bidding war.

Dan Szymborski: Makes me sad to think about, but I think this current O’s core is past its peak now. The farm system has been declining for the last few years as graduations haven’t been replaced that well and most of their remaining good prospects have seen bad things happen to them over the last year or so

Dan Szymborski: Wieters is likely gone as is Davis. Think Chen signing elsewhere is likely too.

Comment From Larry
Can you believe it was only 22 months ago that Michael Cuddyer beat out Chris Johnson for the NL batting title only. Baseball!

Dan Szymborski: Good times.

Comment From Cain Marko
How underrated is Charlie Blackmon? Higher iso and wrc+ on the road this year, and on pace for 18/38.

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I think he’s about rated.

Comment From GSon
With the season now barreling through August.. what teams do you see currently NOT in the playoffs getting into the race?. and winning a spot at the big dance?

Dan Szymborski: At this point, if you’re not in the race, you’re not getting in.

Comment From Josh G
A year after Jonathan Lucroy breaks the doubles record for catchers, he can’t drive the ball. Is it possible he’s still feeling the lingering effects of his toe injury? Is this just a lost season?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK with a winter to recover.

Comment From jdkeaton
Jung Ho Kang ROY at this point, or does Bryant still have it?

Dan Szymborski: I think Bryant is more likely to win still. It might depend on who exactly is doing the ballots this year

Comment From Josh
Better keeper: Fernandez in the 10th for 1 more year or Darvish in the 11th for 2 more years?

Dan Szymborski: Given the uncertainty in Fernandez’s shoulder at the moment, I’d keep Darvish

Comment From Lars
Odds that Jesus Montero is worth more career WAR than injury-prone Pineda?

Dan Szymborski: Still fairly small, but there’s still time.

Comment From Josh G
What is Jimmy Nelson’s ceiling as a starting pitcher? Does he have the potential to reach ace status one day?

Dan Szymborski: Nelson is what he is at this point, I think. For all the talk this psring about his new curve, I’m pretty sure his FIP is about what it was last year. A good pitcher, but not one I see as likely to be the next Kluber.

Comment From EC
Is Trea Turner the best shortstop in the Nats system?

Dan Szymborski: At this moment, I still think Desmond is better – Desmond’s even hitting a bit better lately.

Dan Szymborski: Desmond was overrated at his best, but I think his horrific first half is causing him to be a bit underrated now

Comment From Marcus Aurelius
For all the attention pederson got for his success at beginning of year and polanco

Comment From Marcus Aurelius
Polanco could finish with a higher WAR than Joc.

Dan Szymborski: Certainly possible.

Comment From Josh G
Does Jose Berrios get the call this week?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s likely. The reality is the Twins didn’t really make much of an upgrade at the trade deadline and Berrios, who has been killing it in AAA after a bit of a rocky debut, is the team’s best chance to get add an impact pitcher to the roster.

Dan Szymborski: I mean, let’s say he’s called up and he sucks. Well, Ervin Santana’s already going that.

Comment From mtsw
Orioles Rule 5 pick Jason Garcia probably kinda sucks, but now that they’re already sacrificed so much to keep him around you may as well burn a 25-man spot on him for the next 3 weeks to gain permanent control right?

Dan Szymborski: At this point you might as well. The past season is already gone, at this point, the question is if he’s worth keeping for 3 weeks, which he totally is, I think.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I’d keep him all season, but with 4.5 months about gone, you may as well

Comment From Marcus Aurelius
Do you think Polanco could become the best of Soler, Pederson, Springer

Dan Szymborski: It’s possible, but I’d still put Pederson over Polanco long term.

Dan Szymborski: I remember arguing with people who though Pederson’s projection was absurd becuase htere was no way he’d hit below .280 in the majors.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had him 2nd best prospect for rest of career value last spring and that’s *with* it only assumping a 110-120 OPS+ this year on a .239 BA.

Dan Szymborski: Wait, did I just write assumping?

Comment From Aron
If Jack Z finally gets canned, what does a new GM do besides strengthen the minor league system? It doesn’t seem like there are many big moves to be made at the MLB level.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if ownership has the stomach for a drastic change of direction. Most likely it’s an O’Dowd-Bridich type transition that reshuffles the letterheads but doesn’t change the course of the organization

Comment From J.W.
Will Miggy Cabrera carry Detroit to a wild card birth when/if he returns next week?

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From tony
correa might be the best SS already. But could Lindor be top 5 SS next year (after correa, xander, tulo)

Dan Szymborski: *Could be?* yes. Will be? I’d put him lower than that.

Comment From Andrew
ROS projections still have the Nats for a .559 win percentage. It seems the projections still love the Nats even though they have been mostly meh this year. Do you trust that projection?

Dan Szymborski: Why wouldn’t I? Projections take into consideration the meh performance. Though I can’t specifically vouch for a FG projection because it’s not one I run

Comment From Brendan Ryans mustache
If I met Evan Longoria right now, I’d ask him, “Didn’t you used to be Evan Longoria?” Do you think that he’ll ever return to being Evan Longoria or is the power outage part of his descent into just a solid player?

Dan Szymborski: People drastically underrate how many players peak during 24-26.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, 26-28 is more common, but 24-26 is just as typical as 28-30.

Comment From Trapper
Someone can lack command if they have control, but always has control if they have command, right?

Dan Szymborski: The wya I iuse the terms, I would agree with this. I think of control as the ability to hit the strike zone and command as the ability to hit a specific desired location.

Comment From mtsw
Is Shields mostly the victim of bad luck? 17% HR/FB seems hugely unusustainable. Or is the fact he’s allowing so many fly balls to turn into HR even playing half his games in Petco the reason people are worried?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine next year.

Comment From HR
Allow me to rephrase – Why does ZiPS see Shields being twice as valuable? If it’s the home run rate, why does it think he’s just going to stop giving up so many home runs after four months?

Dan Szymborski: For one, ZiPS is fully aware of the lack of predictive value of four months of HR allowed statistics for pitchers.

Dan Szymborski: What it comes down to is, do you want a projection or a pitcher’s pace?

Comment From mtsw
Is Jimmy Paredes something? Seems like the league has mostly figured him out and now he’s basically a DH with a .700 OPS

Dan Szymborski: No. He’s a flailing hitter that would probably swing at a baseball-shaped cloud. He had a few good months, but teh reality is he’s essentially a replacement level DH, a Kevin Witt type.

Comment From Josh G
What’s going on with Corey Dickerson? I haven’t seen much of an update on him regarding a timeline. Does he play again this year?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen an update, but I see little purpose for the Rockies to rush him back from a couple broken ribs.

Dan Szymborski: That’s the kind of thing that can alter your swing.

Comment From Kern
Any tips for how to get ON a jury?

Dan Szymborski: Be generic?

Dan Szymborski: I was last called for jury duty when I was living in baltimore.

Dan Szymborski: The defense lawyer apparently used up his preemptory challenges before they got to me and was visibly displeased.

Dan Szymborski: I turned out to be the only white guy on the jury. It was an easy case, the city had aboslutely nothing and the judge dismissed it on motion after the prosecution rested

Dan Szymborski: This truck driver on a city works project was accused of stealing a truckload of gravel. The prosecution’s only evidence was that they had less gravel than they thought and the driver’s signature signed out gravel at one place and didn’t sign in at the destination

Dan Szymborski: That was the case. Nothing else. I know we weren’t suppsoed to talk about the place, but the whole jury, we were cracking up and making fun of the case at lunch

Comment From Catphish
Is Austin Jackson a starting CF somewhere next year?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

Comment From steve
Are there any pitchers who do not throw a fastball? Excluding 2-seamer only guys.

Dan Szymborski: Depends what you classify. Some fastballs aren’t really “fast”balls

Comment From Minty
Not that he’d return to his early season heights, but how confident should I be that Joc can start to figure it out? He can be kept for $4 next season.

Dan Szymborski: As long as you’re fine with the BA. He has less value in fantasy than reality since you can’t adequately value his ability to play CF in most typical formats

Comment From Anonymous
Any thoughts on the NL Central? Best division ever that will sweep themselves into a playoffs trainwreck? The Cardinals plus two frauds? Somewhere in between?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a very fun division. I’d argue 2 teams and arguably 3 are in the top 5 teams in baseball

Comment From EC
Of the Nats who could get a QO, do any accept them? Do they all receive them? (Desmond, Zimmermann, Span, Fister)

Dan Szymborski: I’d offer a QO to all but Zim.

Dan Szymborski: Fact is, 1/16 is a very small amount of money. You can pay a lot more on a one-eyar deal than you do in AAV over a long-term contract.

Comment From steve
Just recently read Jeff Passan’s article on McCracken from 2011. Do you know how McCracken’s doing? or WHAT he’s doing?

Dan Szymborski: V-man has done a lot of soccer stuff and he’s consulted for an MLB team, but I wont’ say which one.

Comment From Steve
ZiPS still doesn’t believe in Jung-ho Kang or the KBO?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks Kang is a good player, but not this good.

Dan Szymborski: There’s a tendency to overrate foreign players if their first season in the majors is big.

Dan Szymborski: I kept telling people till I was blue in the face that Jose Abreu having a 173 OPS+ and Yoenis Cespedes having 139 OPS+ in their first seasons in MLB doesn’t establish their baseline ability *even if* it’s their only good data year.l

Comment From RotoLando
Did you know that Chris Davis and Khris Davis have hit a home run on the same day 12 times?

Dan Szymborski: I did not.

Comment From Theo Epstein
I can’t decide. Should I give Fowler a QO in the offseason?

Dan Szymborski: I would not.

Comment From J.W.
Does Dee Gordon finish the season batting over .300 with 50+ steals?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll finish above .300 but I think 50 is probably a good over/under with the steals.

Comment From Guest
The Cardinals need to play .570 RoS to win 100 games. Do they do it?

Dan Szymborski: I think they can.

Comment From Dellavedova
Has JZ really been that bad? Cruz signing has been great, Seth Smith has been valuable, Montgomery has been a solid return for Erasmo. Seems like he set them up decently well.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s not forget he signed about 34 DH/1B before finding two that actually contributed.

Dan Szymborski: And Mike Montgomery, will good return, doesn’t strike me as some diamond in the rough. Maybe J.A. Happ-plus for awhile.

Comment From RotoLando
You’ve got the upward-scrolling thing going on.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t do anything, so I’m not sure.

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
What’s worse, the Padres trading Trea Turner and Joe Ross for Myers, or the Rays trading Trea Turner and Joe Ross for Souza?

Dan Szymborski: The Rays trading for Souza. I didn’t get their fascination with him.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS translated his 2014 at 280/351/473. Problem is, a translation isn’t a projection – his previous translations were 253/325/427, 234/285/398, and 189//286/383.

Comment From George is Curious
Does Shields get moved in August? If so, best bet as to where he lands?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect the Padres want too much for him.

Comment From J
Didn’t mean to start anything last week by asking about Griffey – I’ve just heard that he never took PEDs, but obviously it’s nigh impossible to actually know such things.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, and then you told us about how Jr. passed your magical look test.

Comment From Os
I’m fine with Wieters and Chen leaving. you could not convince me Caleb Joseph isn’t better than Wieters right now. Davis leaving concerns me. if they could get him for 4/60 or 4/65, I think they should go for it.

Dan Szymborski: That’s more a reflection of how far Wieters has fallen. Joseph has been good this year. As a 29-year-old in 200-some PA. Let’s not go nuts about Joseph.

Comment From Bill
John Mozeliak can’t be feeling very good right now about his deadline deals. Which, if any, do you think will turn out OK once the sample size is adequate, and which will be viewed as just screwups?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Cards will win the division and nobody will really care about the meh deadline (the Pirates had one too)

Comment From Guest
Pirates are 0.5 games behind the Royals for the 2nd best record in MLB but 5.0 games back of the division leader.

Comment From Donnie Drapes
Is Colin Rea worth a pickup?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not enthused.

Comment From Colin
Am I way off to think the winner of the NL WC game wins the NL?

Dan Szymborski: Well, it *could* happen

Comment From KileBrews
Thoughts on Kike Hernandez? Seems to produce when given the opportunity and I believe he’s only 23…

Dan Szymborski: I thought he was as good as Dee Gordon 2014 and I think he is (of course, he’s not as good as Gordon has been in 2015). He gives the Dodgers flexibility

Dan Szymborski: And I know Kike Hernandez is not pronounced *that* way, but it still makes me awkward seeing it printed.

Dan Szymborski: There was a Red Sox/Padre minor league outfielder in the 90s that had a last name that *always* made it an awkward moment for broadcasters.

Dan Szymborski: Awkward to say the name, but look up Ethan F if you don’t know who I was talking about.

Comment From mtsw
Can Scott Boras work his Scott Boras magic and get Matt Wieters a 9-figure deal based on hazy memories of his days as ultra-hyped prospect or has that ship sailed?

Dan Szymborski: Ship has sailed, the postcards have arrived, and they’re booking lounge acts for next summer.

Comment From Tom
Higher ceiling: S. Marte or G. Polanco?

Dan Szymborski: Polanco. marte’ sthe better player right now, but 3 years of age is a pretty big diff when talking uncertain upside

Comment From Chuqui
Any thought’s on Johathan Schoop? His walk rate is soooo low, but he does seem to have decent enough strikeout numbers combined with some pop. Do you see a league average 2b here?

Dan Szymborski: I think he can be, but I think he’ll always be a fairly low OBP player

Comment From AJ Preller
Should I offer Kennedy a QO or might he be the first player to actually accept one?

Dan Szymborski: No, yes.

Comment From Rob
What do you make of the new WOW expansion, “Legion?”

Dan Szymborski: Interested, but obviously haven’t played it yet!

Comment From Larry
What is the gender ratio, if you had to guess, of the people who submit questions to the chat?

Dan Szymborski: I would guess 92/8 or so.

Dan Szymborski: That’s about my twitter split according to twitter analytics thing

Dan Szymborski: It does make me sad that my twitter looks more lopsided than a vote on repealing women’s suffrage would likely be.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t *think* i say overtly sexist things. C’est la vie, I’m guessing that this split isn’t too unusual for nerdy baseball twitterers.

Dan Szymborski: I should ask Gotsulias or Morrison what their splits are like.

Comment From mtsw
Shields for Panda swap make sense for both sides?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard worse ideas.

Comment From EC
If Nats miss the playoffs, could Rizzo’s job be in jeopardy? Dombrowski could move on in?

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ believe so. I think there’s an organization understanding that the team’s issues don’t really stem from simply bad planning.

Comment From baltic wolf
I didn’t know that making an observation that was qualified with an “in my opinion” and “no way to know for sure” suggests that I possess such abilities. It was just one comment, relating to one player in response to another comment. The good news is the STFU response on your part lead me to Google the tune from the ’90s by Cake called Frank Sinatra which I enjoyed so much some 20 years ago. I think STFU was the refrain from the flip side, so I thank you for that. And I thank you, as usual, for the awesome ZIPs projections which I use religiously for my fantasy teams. I could use a little less vitriol on responses to comments that are simply personal opinions. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: You should’ve seen the responses to the observation that I didn’t post.

Dan Szymborski: And yes, suggesting something serious and then saying “hey it’s just a personal opinion” is absolutely ridiculous and worthy of vitriol.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t go up to random people and say “hey, you look like a pedophile” and then say “why so mad bro? it was just an opinion.”

Dan Szymborski: Using drugs that are against the rules in baseball is a serious ethical charge and it should be backed up with more than a half-assed opinion.

Dan Szymborski: If you don’t like nonsense being called out, my best advice you is to instead attend chats of people who would not call out nonsense.

Comment From Rick
Since the All Star Break, Votto has been walking at a rate higher than 2001 Barry Bonds.

Comment From BoomDelly
Has there ever been a better example of negative defensive value negating offensive output than Hanley Ramirez?

Dan Szymborski: Kemp last year?

Comment From tyler
is Soler in danger of becoming a AAAA slugger? he is whiffing 40%+ on sliders curves and changeups. Or will he figure it out?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine.

Comment From jocephus
do you have to sacrifice something periodically to keep ZiPS happy?

Dan Szymborski: Electricity!

Comment From Ed
Edward Mujica is proof that the A’s are tanking 2015, right?

Dan Szymborski: 2015 is over.

Comment From TJH
which player has been your best/favorite interview?

Dan Szymborski: Do you mean personally? I dont’ really interview people so can’t say personally – I’m more of an opinion/analysis guy than a reporter.

Dan Szymborski: Now of interviews I see, Harper currently, Reggie all time.

Comment From Bill S. Preston Esq.
How much more data is needed to get a good idea of how the new video screens are impacting the winds….in favor of the hitter or the pitcher….at Wrigley?

Dan Szymborski: It’s very difficult to isolate – you’d have to probably look at the winds themselves.

Comment From Tom
Did you ever play or get into Borderlands 2? What character was your fav? Picked it up during the summer sale and now behind EUIV it is my most played game.

Dan Szymborski: Oops, that was for Lightning Round.

Comment From baltic wolf
Stepping aside from the contentious issue of steroids, I remember years ago that Jim Palmer said that one reason that good pitchers tend to get better as the season progresses is that the bats start to slow down, primarily because of the various aches and pains that accrue to the grind of a 162 game season. Is there a shred of evidence that this is true, assuming we don’t count hitters who have come off a restful period on the DL (15-30 days)?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t quite think ti works out – I suspect that hot weather is tougher on the pitchers.

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
I just bought gravel. An entire truckload cost $145 delivered. I bet you and the other 30 called jurors were pretty upset over having to take a day off work over that.

Dan Szymborski: We got $14. This was *2003 not 1958*. The parking fee for the day at the court garage was $16.

Comment From Ryan
Wait, are you saying the Defense lawyer would have struck you because you’re right? Reverse Batson fail.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t exactly get to hear what they were talking about. But I *was* the only white guy and when I came up, there was a good bit of contention between the lawyers and the judges but I couldn’t hear what they were syaing

Dan Szymborski: (or gal, I’m usingi guy generically, sorry0

Comment From Sean
You don’t give a QO to Jordan Zimmermann?

Dan Szymborski: Oh wait, that was Zimmermann? I read that as Zimmerman

Dan Szymborski: But obviously, Zimmerman’s contract has years to go

Dan Szymborski: What is he signed through 2018? That’s a brain fart. Obviously you offer a QO to Zimmermann.

Comment From GSon
classic / aged distilled spirits or craft “perfumed” fare (Touch of Honey flavored whiskey, as an example)?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, I’m not sure what the question is!

Dan Szymborski: You can see how far I am behind on questions, I’m just now getting to about 10 declarations of me being stupid.

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
After coming off a 14 defensive runs season, and 7 years of data saying Zobrist is an excellent fielder, how much should I trust his implosion on defensive metrics? These are the same metrics that say Asdrubal Cabrera is the 9th best qualified* defender.

Dan Szymborski: You shouldn’t trust one year defense. There’s signal there, but the noise destroys it

Comment From Kyles Money
What do you expect from Kyle Parker for the rest of this year and what role do you expect him to play next season?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t expect him to be anything more than a role player at any point

Dan Szymborski: And maybe not even that – he can play 3 of the 4 corners, but he’s not a real asset if he can’t crush PCL pitching

Comment From Twinks
Is maikel Franco a 30/100 guy?

Dan Szymborski: I think he will be, but not a star 30/100 guy, but one of the good not great guys who have middle lineup profile but not star level

Comment From MSW
Y’all really need to figure out the accent on that second e in Kiké’s name. It’s even worse than hearing Keuchel said out loud

Comment From Neal
What kind of contract do you see Chen getting?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll get 4/70 from someone. Though remember, I’m talking without a lot of time to really crunch numbers

Comment From Cain Marko
Bourn/Swisher for C. Johnson a good move for both teams?

Dan Szymborski: No, a meh move for both teams.

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think anyone involved in the trade is likely to ever again be a significant positive contributor.

Comment From JC
Is Melvin Upton anything more than a fourth outfielder now?

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From Guest
Did you watch any Dota2 last week?

Dan Szymborski: Only a little, turned out to be busy.

Comment From TKDC
Is “Jason Heyward is injury prone” as baffling to you as it is to me? In the last four years, the only significant time he’s missed were due to an emergency appendectomy and getting hit in the face with a pitch.

Dan Szymborski: He “feels” more injury prone than he is because his hitting not really developing as much as we hoped from his rookie season kinda gets melded into the judgments

Comment From Art Vandelay
é ALT-0233 people

Dan Szymborski: OK, we’re 1:18 now, so let’s finish up with the LIghtning Round.

Dan Szymborski: Rules of the Lightning Round are simple: I *must* answer any question, even if I do not know the answer or have any particular insight into the question being asked. With the usual exceptions (explicit content, work-related reasons)

Comment From Blue Cat
mreh. DOTA2 International prize pool is eye opening and underlines ascendancy of e-sports, but I don’t think DOTA2 is the game to break through to mass consumption. Any thoughts on emergence of e-sports? Also, I’m watching the clock, see you for lunch in a bit. mreh mreh.

Dan Szymborski: esports will continue to emerge and you will likely to see some of big sports media start to cover them more

Dan Szymborski: Not because they are traditional sports — they’re not — but they are competitions that attract a lot of people that you can monetize – gamers tend to have money and many are not currently captured by traditional sports

Dan Szymborski: As for what ESPN specifically will do, I obviously cannot comment on anything ESPN will or will not do in the future (see the exception!)

Comment From Neal
Dan Szymborski is the bestest of best chatter. In my opinion.

Dan Szymborski: I agree.

Comment From Ampersand
What’s your favorite food that starts with the letter “S”?

Dan Szymborski: sausage

Comment From Ryan
Given your opinion last week, that PED’s don’t actually enhance performance, do you not believe in tools based scouting? Considering it’s clinically proven that certain of these substances absolutely make you faster and stronger?

Dan Szymborski: I said *significant*. And again, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

Dan Szymborski: Baseball is not a pure strenght competition. It can help, but so can working out *without* steroids.

Dan Szymborski: And again, the fact is, there has been no study that has rejected the null hypothesis of no effect.

Dan Szymborski: The basic fact remains that we have lots of players caught using steroids at the MLB and minor league level. And there’s no pattern of unusual career development at *any* point.

Dan Szymborski: whether before or after being caught.

Dan Szymborski: And if the argument is “Every player that uses steroids used them their entire professional career from the start of their minor leagues, which have drug tested even longer than MLB to the years after they were caught using steroids”

Dan Szymborski: If we ignore the fact that that is a stupid argument, the sole supposition stemming from the fact that effects have *not* been found in the data, then it makes drug testing absolutely meaningless.

Dan Szymborski: If drug testing is that easy to get around and has no effect on the use rate of the people getting caught, then what’s the point?

Comment From Hearthstone Q
Lightning round: Do you think inspire will be potent enough to need to get the 50 packs in advance or should I be content to build up cards through arena awards and spare gold or after it comes out?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll get the 50 packs in advance (and have) but I dont’ expect to need that much to craft the remaining useful cards. Inspire is too slow.

Dan Szymborski: The only cards that will see much play is the ones that are good without inspire, and that’s not many.

Dan Szymborski: Yes, you can run a lot of inspire cards and get value that way, but since the inspire effects are so varied, it’s hard to get much synergy there

Dan Szymborski: Too little power creep is as much a problem as too much power creep. There are lots of cards that are priced too fairly.

Dan Szymborski: Meta decks are based on their *potential* to be *un*fair to an opponent.

Dan Szymborski: For the same reason why chess games that start 1. e4 c5 are far more interesting than games that start 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bc4

Comment From Rusty Kuntz
Let me guess — Kike says it’s pronounced “kee-kay.” Um, okay? Anyway it worked for me, at least until I stood near Konerko and Getz. Then a camera shutter snapped and a life time of work was wiped out out in an instant….

Comment From mtsw
It’s so hard to get people to show up for jury duty in Baltimore City that they now threaten to serve bench warrants to people who repeatedly ignore the jury summons. Baltimore!

Dan Szymborski: I think they have for awhile. I know when I served, when they called name and nobody answered, the judge would request a warrant

Comment From Johnny (named after the best catcher of all time)
Any chance that the Mets will keep Matz (when he gets back) on regular rest to build his innings up for next year?

Dan Szymborski: The Mets keep going back and forth on how they want to sue rotation

Comment From TKDC
Can you explain why “steroids don’t help you play baseball better” is the null hypothesis?

Dan Szymborski: Because that’s what the null hypothesis *means*?

Dan Szymborski: Or as wikipedia says.

Dan Szymborski: In inferential statistics the null hypothesis usually refers to a general statement or default position that there is no relationship between two measured phenomena, or no difference among groups.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
I’m curious about this – “You shouldn’t trust one year defense.” Is the evidence that the numbers are wrong? Why can we accept a guy like Jay Bruce having a terrible offensive season like 2014, but we can’t accept a good fielder having a bad season? It isnt supposed to measure true talent.

Dan Szymborski: It’s that defensive statistics are extremely *volatile* like one-year park effects are.

Dan Szymborski: The signal being important doesn’t make the noise quieter.

Comment From Matt
Any thought that Starlin Castro might make his way through trade waivers? Yankees take him and convert to 2B?

Dan Szymborski: I think he might sneak through waievers.

Comment From Harrison Bored
Are the Mariners a good candidate to overpay for Cespedes next year?

Dan Szymborski: They’re on the list.

Comment From TKDC
Is Melvin Upton even a 4th outfielder?

Dan Szymborski: He’s actually been solid when around as a role player.

Comment From Greg
How good is a healthy* Jaime Garcia?

Dan Szymborski: A good 2/3 guy. Obviously the asterisk is the “except for that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?” type thing

Comment From Sean
Disregarding opinion of WoW as a game (whether you like it or not), do you like the story/lore of Warcraft?

Dan Szymborski: I do.

Comment From Vance
One old music performer you’d want to see before they past

Dan Szymborski: Ray Davies.

Comment From Josh G
What would you do for a Klondike bar?

Dan Szymborski: I would pay the exact price that the business was requesting in return for the Klondike bar, if I valued the Klondike bar more than that specific amount of money.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know why people do outlandish things for Klondike bars. YOU CAN BUY THEM AT LIKE EVERY GAS STATION

Comment From Bill S. Preston Esq.
Greatest wielder of the Lightning — Thor, Zeus, or that one guy from Big Trouble In Little China?

Dan Szymborski: Zeus. Thor is too goody goody and Lo Pan was defeated so he couldn’t have been that great

Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
You live near Cincinnati…Kings Island or the Beach? Skyline or Goldstar? Have you ever been to Whipty-Do?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve liked The Beach. Less exciting than King’s Island, but you can take a beer into their lazy river and most of their activities

Dan Szymborski: Also, there seem to be fewer children at The Beach.

Comment From Vance
What would be your final Death Row meal?

Dan Szymborski: A whole lot of five alarm chili in the hopes of making a godawful mess for someone to clean up after the execution

Comment From mtsw
Things that make Dota2 intimidating to play make it great to watch. Games seem like they swing on a few big plays and macro-level decision making, coordination and strategy, unlike Starcraft or LoL which seem to hinge much more on players gaining incremental advantages through superior clicking.

Comment From Steve
Castle Wolfenstein or Doom?

Dan Szymborski: Wolfenstein

Comment From Josh G
Which type of bear is best?

Dan Szymborski: black bear

Comment From MSW
If professional poker can get the level of coverage it got from major sports networks in the mid-00s, then e-sports can certainly do it too. And I say that as a guy who plays some poker but has no interest in video games.

Dan Szymborski: Yes, this is my position. Large media sports companies should get into this – early adopters will also have the potential to shape the landscape of esports, which are still in their early periods and all over the place

Comment From Rob
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what the question is, but no?

Comment From Josh G
Did Brady Anderson use steroids?

Dan Szymborski: I do not have sufficient evidence as to form an opinion.

Comment From RotoLando
Have you ever been part of “the wave” at a ballpark? Regardless of participation, how did you feel about it?

Dan Szymborski: Hate the wave. I’m there to watch baseball and drink beer.

Comment From Josh G
Has any other topic ever made you this upset?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not upset, but I like to nip stupidity in the bud

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
Who is the baldest Fangraph writer?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, I think all the FG guys I’ve met have had hair

Comment From Ampersand
How’s the litterbox situation in Chez Szymborski? I don’t think I could deal with cleaning up after more than just the one cat we have…

Dan Szymborski: The litterboxes are all in a distant corner of the basement bathroom and leave the exhaust fan on just to be safe

Comment From mtsw
Maybe steroids work but a group of guys who mostly never went to college and believe that magnetic wristbands work don’t have the medical knowledge to take advantage of them effectively without intervention from their team’s training staff?

Dan Szymborski: that is, of course, a possibility

Comment From baltic wolf
I’m grooving on Bach’s Goldberg Variations right now. Do you play it occasionally?

Dan Szymborski: I gotta admit that it’s some of least favorite Bach

Comment From Vance
What would be your response if there was a legal way for players to get better, but some would refuse to use it on religious grounds (i.e. stem cells)?

Dan Szymborski: It’s their personal choice.

Dan Szymborski: Though I feel it’s my personal choice to prefer a player that uses as legal ways to get better

Comment From Josh G
Gilmore Girls or Golden Girls?

Dan Szymborski: Neither are really my favorite, but I found the former to be a bit overwritten

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
Lightning round: Worse ariline passenger: No deodorant or drunk and loud?

Dan Szymborski: no deodorant

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
What the hell are these metadata cards? Power creep? Are you talking some computer game or am I missing some new metric?

Dan Szymborski: Hearthstone

Comment From Mark
It’s why Shaman isn’t played much. It just doesn’t have anything unfair about it. No “the combo”, no turn 4 8/8’s, no “everyone get in here!”. It’s just boring and fair.

Dan Szymborski: Even look at the new cards. Shaman needs better card draw. Like that new card, Draw 2 cards for 2 mana. Awesome! Oh, overload 2.

Dan Szymborski: Now, shaman *has* received a few interesting cards – the totem cards introduced have potential because there’s at least a possibility of an unfair totem deck

Dan Szymborski: Fireguard Destroyer was and is a cool card, but the problem is it didn’t give shaman wait it needed to have mismatched games.

Dan Szymborski: It was just a big pile of stats that had no effect on the board when played.

Comment From Andrew
Schoenberg or Stravinsky?

Dan Szymborski: Stravinsky

Dan Szymborski: Last call for Lightning Round Qs.

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
Have you ever eaten a *Tide Pods* just to see why babies like them so much?

Dan Szymborski: No. Babies are stupid.

Comment From MSW
Klondike bar? Meh. Now for a Choco Taco, I would do unspeakable things…

Dan Szymborski: YOU CAN BUY THOSE TOO

Comment From Ryan
Could Marvel save the Fantastic Four franchise?

Dan Szymborski: Not for awhile.

Comment From MD
Hair or scales?

Dan Szymborski: Uhh hair?

Comment From Bill S. Preston Esq.
Not Lo Pan….the other guy with the straw hat.

Dan Szymborski: OK, I have to think about that one – it’s been awhile

Comment From RotoLando
You know the water that pools on the top of the ketchup and mustard bottle? Which is more gross: ketchup water or mustard water?

Dan Szymborski: Ketchup water

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
Have you ever thrown a ball at Brett Gardner?

Dan Szymborski: I have not

Comment From Bill S. Preston Esq.
Best “classic” console – SNES, N64, or PS2?

Dan Szymborski: PS2. Is PS2 considered classic now? Yikes

Comment From Art Vandelay
I just don’t think people (who aren’t already into DotA) want to watch Fear farm ancients for 20 minutes, even if he then comes in and cleans house during teamfights. It’s a hard sell for anyone on the outside.

Comment From Ryan
What are some of your favorite breweries/beers?

Dan Szymborski: brasserie de rochefort

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
Esports? If you can poop and play, it isn’t a sport. And I poop and play regularly.

Dan Szymborski: I think e-sports is used to *differentiate* it from sports. they’re competitions

Dan Szymborski: But you aren’t really going to be able to poop at dota championships

Dan Szymborski: Baseball players poop between games too

Comment From Matt
If a commenter asks a question in a forest and Dan’s not around to hear it, did he ever really ask it?

Dan Szymborski: Yes.

Comment From MSW
Since you don’t technically work for FG, are you allowed to write a young-adult novel about FrangRapHS, the high school for rapping vampires?

Dan Szymborski: I can write anything I want so long as it’s consistent with my responsibilities in my ESPN contract.

Comment From MD
Thoughts on raising the mound height by 3 feet?

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From STiVo
Do you know of a better state motto than “Sic Semper Tyranis” (Virginia)?

Dan Szymborski: Live Free or Die? (NH). Esse quam videri (NC)

Dan Szymborski: Maryland’s is terrible. Manly deeds, womanly words.

Comment From Natitude Adjuster
Nat King Cole or Bing Crosby (for Christmas carols)?

Dan Szymborski: Cole

Comment From Luke
Speaking of your Twitter demographics, which do females like the least: baseball statistics, wrestling or video games?

Dan Szymborski: probably baseball statistics?

Comment From Ryan
Best settings for Civ V?

Dan Szymborski: Prince. Higher than that is harder mostly because the PC is cheap

Comment From Matt
Why is the “Dan Szymborski Fangraphs Chat” post not posted by…..Dan Szymborski?

Dan Szymborski: Because the post is written by David Cameron.

Dan Szymborski: If I write an article about the release of Go Set a Watchman, that article is written by Dan Szymborski, not Harper Lee.

Comment From MSW
The Denver Broncos are giving their analytics guy direct access to the head coach during the game. Whether or nto the coach actually takes the advice is one thing, but isn’t this a good idea? Should MLB teams try to do the same?

Dan Szymborski: I actually think analytics guys are more useful in-game in NFL than MLB.

Dan Szymborski: Tactical decisions are a much bigger deal in the NFL.

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
“Too little power creep is as much a problem as too much power creep. There are lots of cards that are priced too fairly.” I spent 10 minutes trying to figure out if this was some new thing with scouts.

Comment From RotoLando
Do you play Uno?

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From Logan B
Are you excited for Crusader Kings 2?

Dan Szymborski: I was when I was playing Crusader Kings 1. As for 2, I’m probably at like 800 hours.

Dan Szymborski: 696

Comment From mtsw
More competent: old-school, non-analytic baseball executives or coked-up, meddling movie studio executives?

Dan Szymborski: The movie execs.

Comment From K Upton, Probably
Would you prefer to take a cruise on the Danube or the Rhine?

Dan Szymborski: Danube

Comment From Bill S. Preston Esq.
PS2 is the last console I bought, and I’m old….so I assume it’s classic now.

Comment From RotoLando
Spiders: kill on sight, or live and let live?

Dan Szymborski: Run and hide and hope cats take car of it

Comment From MD
Bro or Manzier?

Dan Szymborski: My fat is mostly stomach and head distributed – I don’t have a manboobs problem.

Comment From Brendan Ryans mustache
When is a man too old to be playing video games? Asking for a friend. Just kidding, asking for you.

Dan Szymborski: When they no longer enjoy them.

Comment From MSW
If the only thing holding back e-sports is the “it’s not a sport” police, I’d be investing heavy.

Comment From Ampersand
Marathon runners poop sometimes… and that’s definitely a sport. And disgusting

Comment From mtsw
No question that people who aren’t into Dota can’t watch it, but same criticism applies to all esports since the games feature rules exponentially more complex than standard sports. No novice can watch a Starcraft or Counterstrike match and enjoy it without having played the game.

Dan Szymborski: The thing about CS is that while it’s not my favorite game to watch by a longshot, it’s at least easy to explain what’s going on to an audience not familiar

Dan Szymborski: That’s why I think Hearthstone, of the 4 or 5 most popular spectator esports, has the best chance to find a wider audience.

Dan Szymborski: Because Hearthstone is a lot like poker.

Dan Szymborski: Not in form, it’s obviously fairly different, but Hearthstone has similar concepts that are easier to communicate

Dan Szymborski: AK vs. AA discussions aren’t that much different from discussing Control Warrior vs. Freeze Mage.

Comment From MD
You’re absolutely right… a mound that doesn’t require a ladder or sherpa is far too short.

Comment From Met Fart Noise Canon
Fair, but NH’s slogan should really be “Live Free or Die…and use the states surrounding us for all of the stuff we can’t pay for ourselves, constantly, for the last 150 years”

Comment From Manly Deeds
You should play Uno now that it has a variant in which the number of cards you receive upon having to pull cards is randomized. I thought you were stochastic process man!?

Comment From Art Vandelay
“Mansierre”

Comment From Manly Deeds
Ghastly Monsters or Lovely Ladies?

Dan Szymborski: Lovely Ladies. Lots of money when you play them.

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
I think wrestling could greatly benefit from sabermetrics. For example, if HHH would hit the Pedrigree at the beginning of the match, instead of waiting til the end of the match, his record would be a lot better.

Dan Szymborski: heh

Comment From MSW
The key to the televised poker boom was the hole card camera, allowing the viewer access to information that the players didn’t have. If e-sports can find that key to their broadcast, there’s a big future.

Dan Szymborski: That kind of ties into hearthstone – spectating hearthstone *is* like that because you direclty see the tools each player has to work with

Comment From Bill S. Preston Esq.
The best Fantastic Four movie is still The Incredibles.

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
River you are more likely to swim in: The one on fire in Cleveland, or the Yellow one in Colorado?

Dan Szymborski: Cuyahoga – haven’t they cleaned that up?

Dan Szymborski: OK, Lightning Round Complete.

Dan Szymborski: And congrats to Andrew Jackson for narrowly defeating George Washington.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone! As a reminder, you can read my work at ESPN.com and see my chats and projections here at FanGraphs. I’m also DSzymborski on Twitter and ZimSmash on Steam (though mostly offseason).

Dan Szymborski: Err ZimSmash on Twitch. I’m DSzymborski on Steam.

Dan Szymborski: Have a great week!