Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/15/16
August 15, 2016
| 12:00 |
: Another Monday at noon, so I’m coming home to you guys, with my own blood in my mouth.
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| 12:00 |
: Can the Orioles keep pace in the AL East? Will 3 AL East teams make the playoffs?
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| 12:01 |
: I think they can – other teams have weak spots too. It won’t help though if Miley is execrable instead of lousy.
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| 12:01 |
: I think the two AL East runners-up end up being the wild card, though it’s obviously quite uncertain.
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| 12:01 |
:
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| 12:01 |
: Are these baby Bronx bombers or whatever the hell the media calls them, the real deal for seasons to come? Or do the Yankees trade as usual for a quality player that washes out in 2 years
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| 12:01 |
: I think they’ll do well, which annoys the hell outta me as an O’s fan
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| 12:01 |
: after a strong finish in 2015, do you think Carlos Rodon will be a solid SP for the rest of the season ?
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| 12:01 |
: I’m still optimistic on Rodon.
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| 12:02 |
: When are the Mariners going to call up Vogelbach? He has to be an upgrade over Lind.
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| 12:03 |
: It’s still a fairly conservative organization, even with the GM upgrade. I think at this point, they’re going to wait a couple weeks to call him up when rosters expand rather than make any awkward roster moves at this point
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| 12:03 |
: Is Robin Ventura going to manage the White Sox next year? Or is he gone?
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| 12:04 |
: I think he’s gone after the season – two disappointing perceived seasons in a row and someone’s gotta take the axe.
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| 12:04 |
: Is Danny Duffy an ace now, or is the bottom going to fall out?
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| 12:04 |
: I wouldn’t call him an ace, but I think he’s a very good pitcher.
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| 12:04 |
: What’s going on with Conforto? Are his struggles at the major league level going to continue or is this an adjustment he can make?
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| 12:04 |
: I think he’d have been fine if the team had just left him there and showed a little patience.
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| 12:04 |
: Apparently, D-Backs ownership has to decide by Aug 31 on options for Dave Stewart and Co. Should they be fired? How much of the D-Backs problems are their fault, or unforseeable?
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| 12:05 |
: The fact is, they *did* take a very risky approach, this was one of the outcomes.
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| 12:05 |
: Remember, after all those moves, they still don’t project to be as dangerous as the Giants/Dodgers
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| 12:05 |
: And really, I’ve seen no evidence of particular executive creativity on Stewart’s part.
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| 12:06 |
: There are few enough jobs and so many talented baseball out there that you need to have a reason *to keep* a GM in order to not fire them.
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| 12:06 |
: What better evidence of Cardinal Devil Magic do we need than Jedd Gyorko and Brandon Moss?????
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| 12:06 |
: Hi Dan,
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| 12:06 |
: Yo
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| 12:07 |
: Been watching the CWC? Have a favorite participant so far?
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| 12:07 |
: Brian Kendrick because his bro Neal might be reading this. Also Tony Nese and Zack Sabre Jr.
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| 12:07 |
: Actually, I like Kendrick a lot, I’m just fooling.
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| 12:07 |
: Zach Grienke overall has been decent. Just fine. Competitive starter. But with $170 mil due over the next 6 years, “decent” and “fine” is a big problem, isn’t it?
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| 12:08 |
: Well, there are still good reasons to think he’s better than this.
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| 12:08 |
: Who would be your CY picks right now? Still plenty of room here on the Kyle Hendricks bandwagon.
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| 12:09 |
: Probably Hamels over Quintana. NL, I might still vote for Kershaw simply because even with the lower IP total, he had such an advantage over the others, but more likely Scherzer.
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| 12:10 |
: Though if I turn out to actually be a voter this year — which is doubtful as I’m at the bottom of seniority in Cincy BBWAA — I’ll have to stop talking about it at that point.
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| 12:10 |
: Which fan base have you alienated more in August, the Braves, Royals or Szymborskis?
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| 12:10 |
: My only Szymborski enemy is my archnemesis, Michigan Dan Szymborski.
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| 12:10 |
: Hi dan, people always say the mlb draft is a crapshoot and prospects are unpredictable. But is that really true? Once they reach certain points, shouldn’t we be able to predict, to some degree?
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| 12:10 |
: The draft is a crapshoot to a degree, but certainty increases as they go up the ladder.
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| 12:10 |
: Surprised Joey Votto has managed to claw that average up to .303? Stupid of me to doubt after the .250 first half?
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| 12:11 |
: That quickly, yes. And yes.
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| 12:11 |
: is yoyoing severino the best for his development?
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| 12:11 |
: No.
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| 12:11 |
: I can’t think of any player ever who has gotten beneficial results from being yo-yoed
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| 12:12 |
: So, we know that scoring in every inning of a game is pretty rare – even rarer than a perfect game, as it’s been shown. Given the ROS projections for the Brewers in 8/11’s lineup against ATL (basically, minus Braun in LF, Gennett hitting third, and PIna at C), just how much more unlikely was MIL’s accomplisment than standard issue unlikeliness?
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| 12:12 |
: I have no idea, you can’t ask me to model things I’ve never thought about on the fly in 45 seconds in a chat!
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| 12:12 |
: Heard over the weekend, Cardinals players have been hit 60+ times this year, to hitting only 39. Why are we still calling the Cardinals head hunters?
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| 12:12 |
: Labels are hard to shed.
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| 12:13 |
: Like everyone thinks I’m a stereotypical beer-bellied sarcastic internet nerd…but…errr…bad example.
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| 12:13 |
: Braun for Puig, no cash offsets in either direction. Assume both pass through waivers. Who hangs up?
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| 12:13 |
: Brewers I think.
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| 12:13 |
: Hello Dan! Hope you enjoyed your weekend. No question (yet)
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| 12:13 |
: I did.
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| 12:14 |
: Who is the real Pomeranz? I dont like what im seeing!!!!
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| 12:14 |
: Hard to tell.
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| 12:14 |
: The last NL Wildcard spot feels like a race to the bottom. MIA, NYM, STL, PIT all have serious problems, but all could win it. Who do you think will emerge from this scrum?
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| 12:14 |
: I think Cards pull it off in the end. I think they’re still funamentally the soundest teams.
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| 12:15 |
: With HOU having DFA’d Gomez – where will MIL’s trade of him + Fiers for the four guys they got ultimately rank in terms of one sided trade heists when all is said and done?
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| 12:15 |
: Certainly not looking great.
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| 12:16 |
: Thanks for all the great stuff! You guys are the best. Here in Israel tons of people read fangraphs regularly.
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| 12:16 |
: No thanks to me.
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| 12:16 |
: If they miss the playoffs, would you consider the Mets and Astros to be the biggest regular-season disappointments this year?
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| 12:16 |
: I think Astros more so.
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| 12:16 |
: Can you lead a FanGraphs outing to OPACY?
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| 12:16 |
: My organizational skills are…interesting.
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| 12:16 |
: Who will be better over the next 3 seasons: Bauer or Gausman? Both former top picks who haven’t lived up to the billing yet, but both have shown some serious flashes as well.
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| 12:17 |
: I’m not sure I can say – both can be frustrating in their own way
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| 12:17 |
: What’s going on with Sandy Leon? Would you take the over on the ZIPs projections? He’s been hitting the shit out of the ball.
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| 12:17 |
: I’m not buying it yet considering he wasn’t even hitting AAA pitchers this year
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| 12:18 |
: See Travis Shaw’s Razor.
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| 12:18 |
: Do you think the Astros find every day ABs for Begman once Gurriel is ready?
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| 12:18 |
: They’ll squeeze ’em out.
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| 12:18 |
: How sustainable is Aaron Judges 857 iSO?
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| 12:18 |
: Totally, of course.
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| 12:19 |
: How/when does ZiPs make updates to players? Specifically, it has Jake Lamb as hitting 9 HRs and ROS for 5. Is it offseason and how does it factor that? Just curious about the behind-the-scenes nuts and bolts that you can offer, thanks!
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| 12:19 |
: Daily, though in-season model much more basic
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| 12:19 |
: Caleb Joseph will potentially break the record for most AB without an RBI. Only 10 more needed!
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| 12:19 |
: Hi Dan. I missed you.
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| 12:19 |
: I was here last week and I’m omnipresent on twitter
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| 12:19 |
: Crap start for Orlando Arcia so far. Should MIL keep him up and let him learn MLB pitching on the fly, or could he use some further development time in the minors? FWIW, his defense looks good by the eye test, but FG’s DEF measure doesn’t agree – is this just SSS smoke?
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| 12:19 |
: Let him take his lumps. A major leaguer has to do that.
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| 12:20 |
: Is Mookie Betts an MVP candidate officially?
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| 12:20 |
: I don’t think there’s any official licensing bureau
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| 12:20 |
: It’s tough because Trout is Trout and Altuve’s gone insane
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| 12:21 |
: Is pre-insane (i.e. current) level Charlie Blackmon a good comp for David Dahl next year? 17 HRs/20 SBs?
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| 12:21 |
: I’d hope his ceiling was higher than 2014/2015 Blackmon
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| 12:22 |
: Aaron Judge is on pace to hit 47 HRs this season. This is plausible, right?
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| 12:22 |
: On the high side of course. I do th ink he’s a real hitter.
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| 12:23 |
: Why the Trumbo power outage? Do you see anything that stands out besides balls not going over the fence?
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| 12:23 |
: He’s still hitting HRs actually – it’s the BA that’s dropped off.
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| 12:23 |
: Is an August trade for an older, highly paid hitter a possibility for MIA, or are they relegated to picking up someone like A-Rod to fill the hole left by Stanton’s injury?
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| 12:23 |
: I think they have to go for scraps
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| 12:23 |
: Odd that the Tigers let Fulmer go 9 yesterday with such a big lead and a possible innings limit. Is there bullpen really that bad? hah. How do you think teams should handle young pitchers when they are in playoff hunt?
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| 12:23 |
: It’s hard to tell just how strict the Tigers are going to be with the inning count.
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| 12:23 |
: He was really coasting there.
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| 12:24 |
: But also, it was super hot and they had that big lead.
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| 12:24 |
: I’m torn on whether he should have been pu lled.
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| 12:24 |
: Do you think the Braves will move on from Markakis this offseason?
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| 12:24 |
: No
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| 12:24 |
: Luis Severino is destined for the bullpen, isn’t he? If so, is he good enough to become Dellin’s set-up man in the reasonable future?
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| 12:24 |
: I think it’s too soon to give up on him as starter
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| 12:25 |
: I don’t recall Kim Ng in the conversation for any of the GM jobs last year. Do you think she’ll be a contender for future jobs or has she been passed by?
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| 12:25 |
: It’s tricky, it’s such a political structure
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| 12:25 |
: Shouldn’t my Orioles try and bring Markakis aboard, it’s obvious he cleared waivers. Get Atlanta to kick in cash.
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| 12:25 |
: No.
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| 12:27 |
: Joey Rickard will eventually be back – so the O’s are set in the scrappy-white-corner-outfielder-that-deluded-people-think-is-legitimate-starter category.
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| 12:27 |
: Contracts included, because why wouldn’t they be, would you rather have Miley or Miranda?
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| 12:27 |
: Miranda long-term, but Miley this year.
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| 12:27 |
: Do you think Cubs will go after Papelbon? If so can he contribute in the playoffs? Would he even make the playoff roster with Chapman, Rondon, Strop (most likely healthy), Edwards, Grimm and Wood all solid later inning options.
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| 12:27 |
: No
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| 12:27 |
: will Jose Quintana ever get 10 wins in a season?
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| 12:27 |
: He won’t be a White Sock forever.
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| 12:27 |
: Do you think Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair can figure it out and atleast be solid backend starters?
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| 12:27 |
: I remain slightly otpimsitic
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| 12:27 |
: Who is your early pick for NL MVP? Bryant? Daniel Murphy?
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| 12:27 |
: Bryant
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| 12:27 |
: You would think a team that supposedly ruined Joba chamberlain by yo-yoing would be more cautious about yanking around pitching prospects
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| 12:27 |
: You’d think a lot of things in this life.
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| 12:27 |
: Could the Reds trade Votto this off season?
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| 12:27 |
: I think they could.
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| 12:28 |
: If the Dodgers do pick up an August arm, who’s a semi-likely candidate?
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| 12:28 |
: It’s a bit tricky as there’s no comprehensive list of who passed through waivers
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| 12:28 |
: What do you think of Freddie Freeman? He’s on the verge of having career highs in homers, Slugging, and OPS. He also leads MLB in LD% and 6th in Hard Hit
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| 12:29 |
: He’s a terrific hitter who won’t be around for the next good Braves team and Atlanta’s spending his value on a lousy team instead of a trade.
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| 12:29 |
: Judge, Frazier, Fowler, Rutherford, Cave, McKinney, Williams, Amburgey, Molina: 9 of the Yanks top 30 prospects are outfielders. With this in mind, how desperate should the Yanks be to get rid of Ellsbury and what would they have to do to convince another team to take the contract?
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| 12:29 |
: If they can convince another team to take Ellsbury, t hey should allow them regardless of their situation
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| 12:29 |
: After 20+ years of trying, are the Rockies finally getting a group of good young pitchers? Do you feel that whole “Coors ruins pitchers” thing is an overblown crutch for the fact that the Rockies have done a poor job developing pitching?
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| 12:30 |
: I think it’s an overblown issue. It’s a challenge, of course
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| 12:30 |
: But really, it’s not like they’ve had amazing front offices.
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| 12:32 |
: I think that at least some of the issues come down to ad hoc hypothesis
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| 12:32 |
: Over/Under on these Hall of Fame chances. Halladay – 80% Tulowitzki – 10%
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| 12:32 |
: Under, probably under sadly
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| 12:32 |
: Do you see the rangers fading down the stretch? Baseruns has them around 500 and Ian Desmond seems to be slumping…
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| 12:33 |
: I think they’ll be OK – the team has more talent on it than at the start of the season
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| 12:33 |
: I feel like everyone is on board the Yankees hype train for the years after 2017. I know they had a successful deadline and have money to spend, but prospects are still prospects, right? Plus teams like Boston are not going to get any worse on paper
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| 12:33 |
: Money to spend is kind of overrated. You can’t just go to the David Price store and buy as many as you need.
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| 12:33 |
: The FA market is a wreck the next two seasons.
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| 12:33 |
: If you get to take on going forward… Aaron Sanchez or Danny Duffy?
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| 12:34 |
: Sanchez – Duffy’s already just a year and two months from FA
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| 12:34 |
: What should we make of SP Cody Reed? He killed it in the minors (in limited innings), but is getting killed in the majors. His strikeout rate is solid, but his highly variable peripherals like BABIP and HR/FB are horrific. Do we just need to see more innings or should we be worried?
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| 12:34 |
: He’s a pitcher, always be worried. Let him get more innings and see what happens.
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| 12:34 |
: Did the Orioles trade for Steve Pearce just to have him languish on the bench to tank his free agent value? Dude has a 148 wRC+ and can’t crack the lineup (I know he’s hurt but even before that he was only being used vs LHP)
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| 12:34 |
: Don’t ask me to explain this.
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| 12:34 |
: Should the Royals trade Danny Duffy with only one year left of team control and the haul they could get for him this offseason?
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| 12:35 |
: They should at the very least consider this. I have an article on ESPN that touches on the gaping abyss the Royals face post-2017.
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| 12:35 |
: Apparently Caminero has a flat fastball. How much does that matter if you throw 100mph?
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| 12:36 |
: Can you name the pitcher in Pirates disfavor, gone to Seattle because of trade waivers? CAMINERO! CAMINERO!
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| 12:36 |
: He whiffs everybody with his super high speed, he’s a hair-raisin’, lead-blazin’ pitching machine! CAMINERO! CAMINERO!
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| 12:37 |
: His control’s a bit spotty, it makes M’s fans nervous, unexplained walks are a matter for Scott Servais! CAMINERO! CAMINERO!
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| 12:38 |
:
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| 12:38 |
:
 ANd I’ll just stick this in here unexplained
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| 12:38 |
: The Mets are fundamentally broken. The way they’ve handled Conforto would make any player depressed.
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| 12:38 |
: Is there any better demonstration of “you can never have too much pitching” than Mets/Nats 2015-16? Mets deal Fulmer from “surplus” and… yikes. Nats resist temptation to deal Giolito and Lopez, and lo and behold, Ross’ setbacks means they get to audition the two of them for a rotation spot, and it looks like it’s Lopez who whos it, for now.
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| 12:38 |
: Pitchers will break your heart.
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| 12:38 |
: Fulmer or Naquin for Rookie of the Year?
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| 12:39 |
: Gotta go with Fulmer right now.
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| 12:39 |
: Who are the top 3 teams in the AL? (In order preferably)
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| 12:39 |
: Cleveland, Toronto, Texas
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| 12:39 |
: Why shouldn’t the O’s call Atlanta and get our captain back? Would be a big boost overall for our club.
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| 12:39 |
: I’d rather the O’s acquired Captain Crunch. At least he can stop the Soggies.
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| 12:39 |
: What would the Mariners be able to get for Cruz in the offseason? Any chance they explore moving him?
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| 12:39 |
: Don’t think it happens as long as the M’s believe they’re contenders.
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| 12:40 |
: On top of another stellar 10-win season, it appears Mike Trout is stuck in an organization with little young talent, awful farm system, dead money, and all around terribleness other than Trout. So the Angels keep him, right?
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| 12:40 |
: Naturally
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| 12:40 |
: I know I should know this, but what does loogy stand for again?
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| 12:40 |
: Lefty One Out GuY
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| 12:40 |
: Cardinals sneak into wild card, defeat dodgers in wild card game, upset cubs in NLDS in defeat red sox in world series. On a scale of 1-10, how pissed would the blogosphere be?
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| 12:40 |
: 7
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| 12:40 |
: Do you think the Cards will let Reyes start this year?
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| 12:40 |
: Yes
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| 12:40 |
: Year the Braves return to the playoffs?
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| 12:40 |
: 2019?
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| 12:40 |
: Does Matt Kemp and his big power help Freeman at all? (He’s been on a tear!) Or is Kemp horrible and it’s just a imaginary theory on protection?
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| 12:41 |
: Why would a pitcher change his approach and make Freddie Freeman more dangerous because he’s afraid of a batter who is an easy out?
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| 12:41 |
: Dan ‘ESPN #notfangraphs’ Szymborski
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| 12:41 |
: I can still take credit!
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| 12:41 |
: Is it just me or is the Rockies’ rotation really good now? Are they contenders next year if they can upgrade the lineup into a cromulent (Coors-adjusted) unit?
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| 12:41 |
: It’s a good rotation. My big concern with the Rockies isn’t their player development, just their ability to harness all the value of their major league roster and maximize their eventual team quality
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| 12:41 |
: Just rewatched Idiocracy recently. Have you ever thought of employing a 2500 AD Costo-esque greeter in your chats? “Welcome to Dan’s chat. I love you”.
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| 12:42 |
: This chat is on a shoestring budget.
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| 12:42 |
: Do you like Seattle’s chances at the postseason?
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| 12:43 |
: Still 30-40% or so. The nice thing for the AL wild cards is that realistically, there are two WC spots that are available, while there’s really just one in the NL
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| 12:43 |
: Are you buying the story that Harper has been playing through pain for some time?
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| 12:43 |
: It’s possible.
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| 12:43 |
: Is Jose Ramirez becoming Altuve Jr.?
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| 12:43 |
: I’m just happy he’s finally meeting the league-average player projections ZiPS gives him every damn year
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| 12:43 |
: Have you ever played Divinity: Original Sin? What’s your preferred combo for classes?
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| 12:44 |
: I have it but haven’t played it yet (sorry, this was for Lightning Round)
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| 12:44 |
: Do the mets try to move grandy and the 1yr/15mil left on his contract this offseason? Would he be hard to move? Could they get anything in return for him or would they have to eat cash?
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| 12:44 |
: They might try. They could get something, but not a lot
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| 12:44 |
: Do you have any hope at all for Jason Heyward to turn things around? What adjustments would he need to make?
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| 12:44 |
: It’s hard to tell. If the answer was easy, it would have already been done.
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| 12:44 |
: But every year he struggles offensively, that ceiling gets lower and lower, like a Willy Wonka hallway.
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| 12:44 |
: Does Sandoval get another crack at starting 3B next year for the Red Sox? Shaw has been garbage since May.
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| 12:45 |
: I think they’ll at least give him a token chance
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| 12:45 |
: Once Buck retires, the O’s are done!!
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| 12:45 |
: Buck’s never retiring.
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| 12:45 |
: Given his delivery and command issues, do you still see Alex Reyes as a starter long-term?
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| 12:45 |
: Until he proves otherwise
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| 12:45 |
: Should the league investigate ways to increase the ball’s air resistance to (presumably) disadvantage fireballers and give a boost to guys who rely on movement? Seems like most people recognize the “you have to throw 95 and everyone will blow out their elbow” equilibrium as a not-good one for anyone.
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| 12:45 |
: WIFFLE BALL
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| 12:45 |
: There’s no reason to ever have a RP win the Cy Young is there? I can’t imagine ever having someone at my job win the Employee of the Year if they’re only a part timer working 15 hours a week.
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| 12:46 |
: You’d need pretty special circumstances.
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| 12:46 |
: ARod to Miami?
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| 12:46 |
: As I said on Twitter, A-Rod’s done, but that doesn’t keep them from using Chris Johnson
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| 12:46 |
: Who do the Orioles have left to trade? Their farm systems is bare like the Angels. Their pitching is weak, they just invested huge on Chris Davis so their pockets are empty. Machado looks like a goner.
|
| 12:47 |
: Nah, the Angels farm is Day 3 of Blizzard Convenience Store Shelves empty. For the O’s system, there’s 3-6 inches of snow in the forecast, but you’re not reduced to buying the Cream of Fart soup.
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| 12:47 |
: Can a last-place team have the MVP? You know who I’m talking about, don’t you?
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| 12:47 |
: Corey Dickerson, of course.
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| 12:48 |
: Who do you think gets traded by the White Sox this winter? I have so little faith they will do this the right way. Need a full rebuild..,
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| 12:48 |
: Nobody.
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| 12:49 |
: Hello from inside Jersey Mike’s, Dan. You want me to get you anything?
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| 12:49 |
: I prefer indie cheesesteak, but I’ll take one. Wiz wit, please
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| 12:50 |
: You sure do hate Nick Markakis don’t you? In general the guy has had a nice career, and means alot to Baltimore fans. And he’s been solid for Atlanta.
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| 12:50 |
: He had a nice run in Baltimore. There’s no reason to want him on a contending team these dyas. He’s a mediocre defensive corner outfielder with a 97 OPS+. He’s solid in the sense that he’s not a gas or a liquid.
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| 12:50 |
: Once the post A-Rod/ new kids euphoria wears off, does CC get traded after clearing waivers?
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| 12:51 |
: No
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| 12:51 |
: Dumped maybe
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| 12:51 |
: Going back to Markakis, I can have no interest in 90s Rolling Stones albums and still appreciate their classic stuff.
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| 12:52 |
: So the Braves should just trade any MLB player who has value? Just call up AAA players to fill most of 25 man roster and win maybe 40 games a year? And just hope we can call up 15 top prospects at 1 time and be contenders over-night? Instead of building a ballclub over a couple years
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| 12:52 |
: They should. Once the arrow’s loose, it’s gonna fly.
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| 12:52 |
: Comparing Olympians across sports is stupid and pointless but Bolt winning 100/200/4×100 in three straight Olympics is more impressive than what Phelps has done and I’ll fight anyone who says otherwise
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| 12:52 |
: My sister would adore you.
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| 12:53 |
: She already didn’t like Phelps from high school. The fact that she’s a medical professional and he uses cupping just makes her angrier.
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| 12:53 |
: Has Jason Heyward basically just mailed it in after signing that huge deal, or what?
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| 12:53 |
: I don’t know if he’s mailed it in – he’s gone through long periods of sucktastic hitting before
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| 12:53 |
: Freeman is a Brave through 2021. You’re certain they won’t be any good before then?
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| 12:54 |
: Hanging onto his value just to get a declinign Freeman at the very end of his contract?
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| 12:54 |
: Between Schwarber and Soler who do you believe in more as a long-term OF? Would Schwarber bring back a clearly larger return in trade?
|
| 12:54 |
: Schwarber in that Soler’s spent two years baking in the disappointment
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| 12:54 |
: is alex reyes the greatest pitcher to have ever pitched a pitch before?
|
| 12:54 |
: Charlie Hough.
|
| 12:54 |
: Better rebuilding strategy: candid, Astros/Cubs-style teardown or “create the illusion we’re trying to compete while we tear down?”
|
| 12:54 |
: Well, given that choice, Astros/Cubs
|
| 12:55 |
: A complete teardown isn’t necessary for every team.
|
| 12:55 |
: But sometimes the house gets so riddled with termites that all you can start from scratch
|
| 12:55 |
: An analyst over the weekend said that tracking technology like Statcast now enables teams to adjust to rookie hitters within 1-2 series, rather than 1-2 months like in the past. With young players having their mettle tested so quickly, should projection systems like ZIPS start weighing smaller sample sizes more heavily?
|
| 12:55 |
: I’ve done a good bit of research on this subject too – I’m satisfied with the weighting.
|
| 12:56 |
: Mike Trout is amazing, but I can’t give a guy the MVP when his team might not crack 65 wins….
|
| 12:57 |
: Why not? What’s the point of an individual award if the best player in baseball being deserving depends on whether the team has Jered Weaver and Jhoulys Chacin starting?
|
| 12:57 |
: If you’re going to carry out this logic, then it also can’t be teams that win the division by a lot becuase by the same definition, they could not have been valuable.
|
| 12:58 |
: There’s no Cub that prevents the Cubs from making the playoffs if they retired at the start of the season.
|
| 12:58 |
: Or even from teh division.
|
| 12:58 |
: So if you’re going to carry out this logic, your entire MVP ballot better consist of every player on the second wild card team.
|
| 12:59 |
: Or, you know, we could give the individual award for the best player to the best player without all the layers of bullshit around it.
|
| 12:59 |
: Even the MVP ballot defines value as “the sum of a player’s offense and defense”
|
| 12:59 |
: Why should the Braves trade Teheran and Freeman if offers are not of fair value?
|
| 1:00 |
: 1. Who says they weren’t. They picked up Matt Kemp after all.
|
| 1:00 |
: 2. Given the irrelevancy of their 2016, 2017, 2018 performance, an underwhelming offer may be way more valuable than what they gain from keeping them
|
| 1:01 |
: “There are few enough jobs and so many talented baseball out there that you need to have a reason *to keep* a GM in order to not fire them.” Should the Cubs keep Theo?
|
| 1:01 |
: Well, yeah
|
| 1:01 |
: Why so much hate for Markakis? It seems like every week your bashing the guy.
|
| 1:01 |
: I’m not the ones asking questions about him
|
| 1:01 |
: I’m back from Jersey Mike’s, Dan. You didn’t respond in time, so I didn’t get you anything. Maybe next week.
|
| 1:01 |
: Banned from future chats.
|
| 1:01 |
: Have you ever thought about getting those shoestrings at Costco? They’re probably pretty cheap.
|
| 1:01 |
: WHERE IS MY CHEESESTEAK
|
| 1:01 |
: Dude, you trashing Markakis every chat is a joke, shows how horrible of a analyst you are.
|
| 1:01 |
: # 1 fan, eh? Must be a pretty disappointing list.
|
| 1:02 |
: Dan, let’s try some word association. I say a word, and you rate how angry it makes you feel with 1 being not angry at all and 10 being a blind rage ; pony, dolphin, Maier, tea-kettle, Cistulli, potpourri
|
| 1:02 |
: 4, 2, 7, 4, 50, 6
|
| 1:02 |
: Is part of the process for creating projections and models testing previous years data to see how closely the projections match what actually ended up happening?
|
| 1:02 |
: Always
|
| 1:02 |
: Is a world where a kinda-bad but still perfectly serviceable vet like Markakis isn’t worth starting a world where we just need more expansion teams? Relatedly, is the younger-skewing aging curve possibly a result of more and more qualified guys competing for a static number of roster spots every season?
|
| 1:03 |
: Possibly, but if we have two more expansion teams, then we’ll end up with eight divisions of four, which is too horrifying to think of
|
| 1:03 |
: when i was a star swimmer cupping was called getting a hickey!
|
| 1:03 |
: Dan. Cups are used throughout the medical industry – they hold liquids (both utilital and consumable), solids (such as nuts, bolts, and bullets removed from bodies), as well as various ad-hoc uses (such as door stops). When will you admit that they are medical equipment?
|
| 1:03 |
: if you eat at abdullah the butchers house of ribs you get a free side order of hepatitis
|
| 1:03 |
: Is there an annual BBWAA convention? Do they offer free wheelchairs/scooters or do the members have to bring their own?
|
| 1:04 |
: No convention. They tend to meetup at different times, like meetings during the ASG and the winter meetings.
|
| 1:04 |
: A lot of the rules and policies seem to be passed off by tradition.
|
| 1:04 |
: When I was accepted I asked if there was like a rule list and the other guy snickered.
|
| 1:04 |
: How awesome is Edwin Diaz?
|
| 1:04 |
: Very much so
|
| 1:05 |
: Dan – you should stop such use of logic and reason in arguments. Its un-American. Are you a terrorist, Dan?
|
| 1:05 |
: I appreciate the word in my behalf but again WHERE IS MY CHEESESTEAK
|
| 1:05 |
: Who would you rather have stating in CF for the next 3 years, Joc or JBJ?
|
| 1:05 |
: JBJ and I like Joc Strap
|
| 1:05 |
: Taillon is going to be a stud. If Glasnow pans out, the Pirates could have a three-headed monster in their rotation for the next 3+ years
|
| 1:05 |
: Best strategy to get a question answered? Short & sweet.Witty. Thoughtful.
|
| 1:05 |
: Yeah, the WHICH 7 OF THIS LIST OF 13 PLAYERS SHOULD I KEEP FOR NEXT YEAR doesn’t usually strike my fancy
|
| 1:06 |
: Save the difficult questions for Carson.
|
| 1:06 |
: What are your favorite baseball topics these days?
|
| 1:06 |
: Baseball!
|
| 1:06 |
: Why are people so passionate about someone like Markakis? Who cares? Care more about Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, etc.
|
| 1:06 |
: I don’t get why I get a dozen Markakis questions a week.
|
| 1:07 |
: I keep thinking if I answer one, that’ll be the end of it, but Markakis Question Posers are apparently reproducing very quickly.
|
| 1:07 |
: Are the BBWAA meetings over by 7 pm? It gives the members an hour to watch a game of their choice before bedtime.
|
| 1:07 |
: Dan – I ran downstairs and got you your damn cheesesteak. Overnight was expensive, so I went with USPS 5-7 business day option.
|
| 1:07 |
: IT BETTER STILL BE HOT
|
| 1:07 |
: Is the reason you like JBJ over Joc in CF due to
1) JBJ’s defense 2) JBJ’s bat 3) Joc’s bat 4) Nick Markakis |
| 1:07 |
: I think JBJ’s just noather step up. I like Joc a lot
|
| 1:07 |
: OK, let’s get this Lightning Round going.
|
| 1:08 |
: You know the rules, I must answer any off-topic question with the noted exceptions until I catch up or get annoyed or you guys sufficiently tick me off.
|
| 1:08 |
: and GO
|
| 1:08 |
: Played No Man’s Sky yet? What do you think?
|
| 1:08 |
: I have not. Given the launch issues, I’m waiting to see how they iron out.
|
| 1:08 |
: I was already growing ambivalent about the gameplay. No multiplayer, no real building, etc.
|
| 1:09 |
: a bad launch has a way of turning off a game forever – I don’t think I’ve tried Sim City since the first week
|
| 1:09 |
: certainly won’t again, see Cities Skylines
|
| 1:09 |
: Thoughts on the new adventure? Seems like some of the new cards will have a good effect on the meta, hello beast druid!
|
| 1:09 |
:
|
| 1:09 |
: There’s so much evil in this world
|
| 1:09 |
: What’s the proper etiquette when an Uber driver claims he’s lost? Doesn’t the APP show them where to go?
|
| 1:09 |
: I’m not sure, haven’t run into it.
|
| 1:10 |
: Though did get into a hilarious situation in which I got in the wrong uber car and we got like 5 miles before realizing it
|
| 1:10 |
: It looked like the car I was waiting for and he was pickingup a Dan too
|
| 1:10 |
: #fav7films is trending on twitter right now. what are your favorite 7 films?
|
| 1:10 |
: Varies on the day, that’s too long for me to think about
|
| 1:10 |
: Freeman will be a Free Agent in 2022. And you said Braves will return to playoffs in 2019, but that Freeman won’t be around for that. Freeman will be 29 years old in 2019.
|
| 1:10 |
: Maybe 2019.
|
| 1:11 |
: And he’ll likely be a worse player than he is now and there will be another two years of wasted value in the interim
|
| 1:11 |
: Do you think they will trade Votto? Or that they should trade Votto?
|
| 1:11 |
: The question was whether they could. I think they could.
|
| 1:11 |
: Are you a fan of Aaron Sorkin?
|
| 1:11 |
: No, I don’t his dialogue style. It’s too over-cute, if that makes sense.
|
| 1:11 |
: If you go to Jersey, is it just called “Mike’s”?
|
| 1:11 |
: I’m sure they knife you for goign to a chain
|
| 1:11 |
: What should I do now that my favorite bartender at my favorite bar has left? Go to a new bar or just try to go find her and ask her out?
|
| 1:12 |
: Are you sure the connection wasn’t her giving you alcohol?
|
| 1:12 |
: Do you like the Volkswagen 2.0 TSI engine?
|
| 1:12 |
: I usually stay away from German cars.
|
| 1:12 |
: Less choice of mechanics
|
| 1:12 |
: Of course, I’ve only actually bought one car
|
| 1:13 |
: The Ford Tempo I was given when I was 16 lasted me 10 years just fine and the Mazda I bought in 2004 just passed 100K miles and has never given me any problems.
|
| 1:13 |
: Oh god, so many alternators in that Tempo.
|
| 1:13 |
: I don’t know why I drove that so long, long past the time I could easily afford a new card
|
| 1:13 |
: Explain Cricket to me. I watched a basic rules video on youtube and I got nothin
|
| 1:14 |
: You wait for the british guy to through something and then you throw something off a stick and then you all get crumpets
|
| 1:14 |
: Are you going to play The Last Guardian? Shadow of the Colossus was awesome.
|
| 1:14 |
: Probably
|
| 1:14 |
: Speaking of uber- where do you sit? Front seat or back seat?
|
| 1:14 |
: Generally front
|
| 1:14 |
: Where should I go on my honeymoon? Looking for sun, beach, relaxation
|
| 1:14 |
: I enjoy Grand Turk
|
| 1:14 |
: How come no one stepped into the RTS niche Starcraft II occupied? It seemed like people were digging it as an e-sport until balance problems ended up making the pro-level game unappealing to watch.
|
| 1:14 |
: I think the MOBA’s have taken a lot of that niche away
|
| 1:15 |
: I have food in the trunk of my car. It hasn’t been refrigerated since 7:30 AM Chicago Standard Time. Should I eat it? It’s steak.
|
| 1:15 |
: I would
|
| 1:15 |
: I just rewatched the Matrix this weekend. What would be your neo-Goth hacker name?
|
| 1:15 |
: Statisticx
|
| 1:15 |
: If 2 chatters with the same name ask a question, can you tell the difference between 1 chatter who asks 2 questions?
|
| 1:15 |
: Yeah, but I do this in a haphazard fashion
|
| 1:15 |
: Last week, Philly reprimanded a citizen who built a temporary pool at their block party. They used the hydrant to fill it up. Philly sited safety issues in the reprimand such as “turning on the fire hydrant could accidentally be aimed at a child sending them flying through the air”. True or False?
|
| 1:15 |
: I hope True because now I want to try it.
|
| 1:15 |
: Most recent movie seen in theatre is….
How many stars did it get? |
| 1:16 |
: Star Wars Force Awakens.
|
| 1:16 |
: My friends aren’t that interested in movies and I hate going by myself.
|
| 1:16 |
: I feel I should be at least 70 before I’m in a theater mid-day by myself
|
| 1:16 |
: Do you watch Sherlock?
|
| 1:16 |
: At times. I tend not to watch many shows until they’re done
|
| 1:16 |
: It makes sense, I just watch it thinking “I know people don’t talk this way but I wish they did”
|
| 1:17 |
: Even the storylines are too cute.
|
| 1:17 |
: Storylines shouldn’t feel like they’re resolved by the writer just by deciding he likes that result, but from a natural flow of the events of the storyline.
|
| 1:18 |
: All of Sorkin’s things seem to start with where he wants the end to be, what he wants to say, and the characters and events are just plugged in to reach that end
|
| 1:18 |
: Favorite celebrity crush?
|
| 1:18 |
: Natalie Dormer
|
| 1:18 |
: Is it time for a change?
|
| 1:18 |
: Yeah, I haven’t gotten dressed yet
|
| 1:18 |
: don’t buy german cars you are a racist
|
| 1:18 |
: I’m half-German!
|
| 1:18 |
: Dan – I hope your happy. I was just contacted by the FEDs. Apparently mailing food is a sign of terrorism. Now I’m a terrorist, Dan. I didn’t even know that about myself!
|
| 1:19 |
: I don’t have my cheesesteak, so whatever they do to you is kosher in my book
|
| 1:19 |
: Why is Golf and not Tug-o-War back in the Olympics? Nothing settles who’s the best country like pulling your enemies into a mud pit
|
| 1:19 |
: I want to see American Gladiators events in the Olympics
|
| 1:19 |
: Maybe the Aggro-Crag
|
| 1:19 |
: what if they went to 4 divisions/8 teams instead of 8 divisions/4 teams?
|
| 1:19 |
: Better, but we know they won’t
|
| 1:19 |
: I know you don’t watch much television, but make time for BoJack Horseman at least (Netflix). It’s in your wheelhouse.
|
| 1:19 |
: I’ll note it
|
| 1:19 |
: The Last Guardian will be a huge disappointment. I just can’t see it succeeding.
|
| 1:19 |
: Possible.
|
| 1:19 |
: If you were forced to drink something from someone’s navel, what drink would you choose?
|
| 1:19 |
: Pure grain alcohol.
|
| 1:20 |
: Favorite midwest ballpark (any level)?
|
| 1:20 |
: Cincy
|
| 1:20 |
: Do you play MtG too?
|
| 1:20 |
: I played blue-white control ages ago, but not in a long timne
|
| 1:20 |
: Follow up to MtG question-if so who’s the best limited player on Fangraphs staff?
|
| 1:20 |
: I definitely don’t know.
|
| 1:20 |
: I’ll say David Wiers
|
| 1:20 |
: Without even knowing if he plays
|
| 1:20 |
: He’s as nerdy as me
|
| 1:20 |
: Should the Orioles put a bronze statue of Markakis in CF with the rest of the greats?
|
| 1:21 |
: Now you’re just trying to get me in trouble with those guys!@
|
| 1:21 |
: Hello? Submitting a question to keep Lightning Round going *heh*
|
| 1:21 |
: I can cut it off if I get annoyed
|
| 1:21 |
: This isn’t a suicide pact
|
| 1:21 |
: It was true, Dan. Now to clarify your position – do you want to be shot with a fire hydrant, or do the shooting?
|
| 1:21 |
: Shooting. If children are the future, the best time to stop them is now.
|
| 1:21 |
: No Mans Sky on PC, are you having the issues I’ve been reading about?
|
| 1:21 |
: I haven’t purchased because of those issues.
|
| 1:21 |
: History of the Cistulli rage factor?
|
| 1:22 |
: Well, first there were the futuristic colonies that existed in 3000 BC until Carson went back in time and destroyed, settting man back millenia
|
| 1:22 |
: and then so on
|
| 1:22 |
: Do you enjoy playing knifey-spoony?
|
| 1:22 |
: I’m a FIDE IM in knife-identification
|
| 1:22 |
: Why is Elon Musk convinced we live in a simulation? Is it because the Tron remake was so bad?
|
| 1:22 |
: It’s a common philosophical argument and not one I necessarily disagree with.
|
| 1:22 |
: Keith Law says to never read the comments section. Do you?
|
| 1:23 |
: I used to, but anyone coherent can probably find me on Twitter
|
| 1:23 |
: On a scale of No to Yes – have you watched any Olympics this year?
|
| 1:23 |
: Yes
|
| 1:23 |
: What’s in between? Nes? Yo?
|
| 1:23 |
: $3M purse for this years winner of the White Marlin Open in OC. Wanna go fishing?
|
| 1:23 |
: Do you mind a fishing partner who is mostly there to crush a 24-pack?
|
| 1:23 |
: It’s time for a cool change
|
| 1:23 |
: Cool Ranch
|
| 1:23 |
: What summer Olympic event would you have the best chance at getting a medal?
|
| 1:24 |
: Internet Sarcasm
|
| 1:24 |
: Is the first female major leaguer already born?
|
| 1:24 |
: There’s an argument that all points present and future actually already exist
|
| 1:24 |
: Will E-sports be an Olympic event?
|
| 1:24 |
: Probably not. I don’t see the necessity.
|
| 1:24 |
: Ninja Warrior for the Olympics!
|
| 1:24 |
: Why do you live in Cincinnati? Have you considered anywhere else?
|
| 1:25 |
: Family reasons. Mom’s nearby and as she gets older, she needs me around.
|
| 1:25 |
: how many mlb parks have you been to? favorite? least?
|
| 1:25 |
: About 30. Camden, Veterans
|
| 1:25 |
: if you could play Goldeneye’s MP on any real life location, where would it be?
|
| 1:25 |
: My house. I know all the angles.
|
| 1:25 |
: I’m glad you don’t play any more. Screw UW control.
|
| 1:26 |
: Would you rather watch for 45 minutes at a concert, a drum solo or the lead singer rant about Free Trade?
|
| 1:26 |
: Drum solo. I’ve seen Peart live.
|
| 1:26 |
: Do you have an opinion on FF: Mobius (android game)?
|
| 1:27 |
: Not yet
|
| 1:27 |
: do you think junkrat is the equivalent of cancer?
|
| 1:27 |
: No
|
| 1:27 |
: If we live in a simulation I rolled a terrible character.
|
| 1:27 |
: Who wins the upcoming Carlsen-Karjakin match?
|
| 1:27 |
: I’m so far behind in my chess knowledge
|
| 1:27 |
: 24 pack of what?
|
| 1:27 |
: Whaddya think?
|
| 1:27 |
: Simulation theory is really just a stand in for the longing of immortality. imo.
|
| 1:27 |
: A range of integerst from [1,2] is still a range, Dan
|
| 1:27 |
: My coworker sniffles half the day before getting a tissue. Do I 1) throat punch him, or 2) throw him a box of Kleenex?
|
| 1:27 |
: Why not both?
|
| 1:28 |
: Sometimes you need to help people *and* hurt them.
|
| 1:28 |
: See Stannis and Davos.
|
| 1:28 |
: Am I lucky or good?
|
| 1:28 |
: Both
|
| 1:28 |
: If Nick Markakis were a video game character, what character would he be?
|
| 1:28 |
: Vincent Valentine. Yeah, he was cool at the time, but we don’t need shitty games with him these days
|
| 1:28 |
: Why are you such a nerd but aren’t nerdy for pokemon?
|
| 1:29 |
: It kind of hit at an awkward time
|
| 1:29 |
: AND END
|
| 1:29 |
: OK, go away, the chat’s over.
|
| 1:29 |
: You can stay in the room, but nothing’s going to happen now.
|
| 1:30 |
: As a reminder, you can read my work at ESPN.com, participate in my bewildering chats and see projections at FanGraphs, or interact with me for some unknown reason at DSzymborski on Twitter.
|
| 1:30 |
: Let me find a stupid graphic to go out on
|
| 1:31 |
:
|
| 1:32 |
: That’s what Ryan Howard doing Goldberg’s jackhammer on Jonathan Papelbon in a wrestling ring that looks like Camden Yards would look like.
|
| 1:32 |
: and END
|
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Could we get the transcript up please?