Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/15/16

by
August 15, 2016
12:00
Dan Szymborski: Another Monday at noon, so I’m coming home to you guys, with my own blood in my mouth.
12:00
Otis Redding: Can the Orioles keep pace in the AL East? Will 3 AL East teams make the playoffs?
12:01
Dan Szymborski: I think they can – other teams have weak spots too. It won’t help though if Miley is execrable instead of lousy.
12:01
Dan Szymborski: I think the two AL East runners-up end up being the wild card, though it’s obviously quite uncertain.
12:01
senpaisanto:

12:01
Hickey: Are these baby Bronx bombers or whatever the hell the media calls them, the real deal for seasons to come? Or do the Yankees trade as usual for a quality player that washes out in 2 years

12:01
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll do well, which annoys the hell outta me as an O’s fan
12:01
daneyko: after a strong finish in 2015, do you think Carlos Rodon will be a solid SP for the rest of the season ?
12:01
Dan Szymborski: I’m still optimistic on Rodon.
12:02
Toki: When are the Mariners going to call up Vogelbach? He has to be an upgrade over Lind.
12:03
Dan Szymborski: It’s still a fairly conservative organization, even with the GM upgrade. I think at this point, they’re going to wait a couple weeks to call him up when rosters expand rather than make any awkward roster moves at this point
12:03
Q-Ball: Is Robin Ventura going to manage the White Sox next year? Or is he gone?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s gone after the season – two disappointing perceived seasons in a row and someone’s gotta take the axe.
12:04
Bobby: Is Danny Duffy an ace now, or is the bottom going to fall out?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t call him an ace, but I think he’s a very good pitcher.
12:04
Toki: What’s going on with Conforto? Are his struggles at the major league level going to continue or is this an adjustment he can make?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: I think he’d have been fine if the team had just left him there and showed a little patience.
12:04
Q-Ball: Apparently, D-Backs ownership has to decide by Aug 31 on options for Dave Stewart and Co. Should they be fired? How much of the D-Backs problems are their fault, or unforseeable?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: The fact is, they *did* take a very risky approach, this was one of the outcomes.
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Remember, after all those moves, they still don’t project to be as dangerous as the Giants/Dodgers
12:05
Dan Szymborski: And really, I’ve seen no evidence of particular executive creativity on Stewart’s part.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: There are few enough jobs and so many talented baseball out there that you need to have a reason *to keep* a GM in order to not fire them.
12:06
Justin: What better evidence of Cardinal Devil Magic do we need than Jedd Gyorko and Brandon Moss?????
12:06
Michael: Hi Dan,
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Yo
12:07
Caveman Jones: Been watching the CWC? Have a favorite participant so far?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Brian Kendrick because his bro Neal might be reading this. Also Tony Nese and Zack Sabre Jr.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Actually, I like Kendrick a lot, I’m just fooling.
12:07
Zonk: Zach Grienke overall has been decent. Just fine. Competitive starter. But with $170 mil due over the next 6 years, “decent” and “fine” is a big problem, isn’t it?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Well, there are still good reasons to think he’s better than this.
12:08
Baba Yaga: Who would be your CY picks right now? Still plenty of room here on the Kyle Hendricks bandwagon.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Probably Hamels over Quintana. NL, I might still vote for Kershaw simply because even with the lower IP total, he had such an advantage over the others, but more likely Scherzer.
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Though if I turn out to actually be a voter this year — which is doubtful as I’m at the bottom of seniority in Cincy BBWAA — I’ll have to stop talking about it at that point.
12:10
The Decadent Moose: Which fan base have you alienated more in August, the Braves, Royals or Szymborskis?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: My only Szymborski enemy is my archnemesis, Michigan Dan Szymborski.
12:10
Michael: Hi dan, people always say the mlb draft is a crapshoot and prospects are unpredictable. But is that really true? Once they reach certain points, shouldn’t we be able to predict, to some degree?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: The draft is a crapshoot to a degree, but certainty increases as they go up the ladder.
12:10
Zock jr: Surprised Joey Votto has managed to claw that average up to .303? Stupid of me to doubt after the .250 first half?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: That quickly, yes. And yes.
12:11
Dr. Met: is yoyoing severino the best for his development?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:11
Dan Szymborski: I can’t think of any player ever who has gotten beneficial results from being yo-yoed
12:12
Outta my way, Gyorkass: So, we know that scoring in every inning of a game is pretty rare – even rarer than a perfect game, as it’s been shown. Given the ROS projections for the Brewers in 8/11’s lineup against ATL (basically, minus Braun in LF, Gennett hitting third, and PIna at C), just how much more unlikely was MIL’s accomplisment than standard issue unlikeliness?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: I have no idea, you can’t ask me to model things I’ve never thought about on the fly in 45 seconds in a chat!
12:12
A. Reitz: Heard over the weekend, Cardinals players have been hit 60+ times this year, to hitting only 39. Why are we still calling the Cardinals head hunters?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Labels are hard to shed.
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Like everyone thinks I’m a stereotypical beer-bellied sarcastic internet nerd…but…errr…bad example.
12:13
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Braun for Puig, no cash offsets in either direction. Assume both pass through waivers. Who hangs up?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Brewers I think.
12:13
Avi: Hello Dan! Hope you enjoyed your weekend. No question (yet)
12:13
Dan Szymborski: I did.
12:14
redsoxfan: Who is the real Pomeranz? I dont like what im seeing!!!!
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Hard to tell.
12:14
Zonk: The last NL Wildcard spot feels like a race to the bottom. MIA, NYM, STL, PIT all have serious problems, but all could win it. Who do you think will emerge from this scrum?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: I think Cards pull it off in the end. I think they’re still funamentally the soundest teams.
12:15
Outta my way, Gyorkass: With HOU having DFA’d Gomez – where will MIL’s trade of him + Fiers for the four guys they got ultimately rank in terms of one sided trade heists when all is said and done?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Certainly not looking great.
12:16
Grasmani Yandall: Thanks for all the great stuff! You guys are the best. Here in Israel tons of people read fangraphs regularly.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: No thanks to me.
12:16
Zonk: If they miss the playoffs, would you consider the Mets and Astros to be the biggest regular-season disappointments this year?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I think Astros more so.
12:16
CamdenWarehouse: Can you lead a FanGraphs outing to OPACY?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: My organizational skills are…interesting.
12:16
PK: Who will be better over the next 3 seasons: Bauer or Gausman? Both former top picks who haven’t lived up to the billing yet, but both have shown some serious flashes as well.
12:17
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I can say – both can be frustrating in their own way
12:17
Julio Pepper: What’s going on with Sandy Leon? Would you take the over on the ZIPs projections? He’s been hitting the shit out of the ball.
12:17
Dan Szymborski: I’m not buying it yet considering he wasn’t even hitting AAA pitchers this year
12:18
Dan Szymborski: See Travis Shaw’s Razor.
12:18
Josh: Do you think the Astros find every day ABs for Begman once Gurriel is ready?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: They’ll squeeze ’em out.
12:18
j6takish: How sustainable is Aaron Judges 857 iSO?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Totally, of course.
12:19
The Cincinnati Kid: How/when does ZiPs make updates to players? Specifically, it has Jake Lamb as hitting 9 HRs and ROS for 5. Is it offseason and how does it factor that? Just curious about the behind-the-scenes nuts and bolts that you can offer, thanks!
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Daily, though in-season model much more basic
12:19
Bork: Caleb Joseph will potentially break the record for most AB without an RBI. Only 10 more needed!
12:19
Matt: Hi Dan. I missed you.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I was here last week and I’m omnipresent on twitter
12:19
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Crap start for Orlando Arcia so far. Should MIL keep him up and let him learn MLB pitching on the fly, or could he use some further development time in the minors? FWIW, his defense looks good by the eye test, but FG’s DEF measure doesn’t agree – is this just SSS smoke?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Let him take his lumps. A major leaguer has to do that.
12:20
Dr. Frank Jobe: Is Mookie Betts an MVP candidate officially?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s any official licensing bureau
12:20
Dan Szymborski: It’s tough because Trout is Trout and Altuve’s gone insane
12:21
The Cincinnati Kid: Is pre-insane (i.e. current) level Charlie Blackmon a good comp for David Dahl next year? 17 HRs/20 SBs?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: I’d hope his ceiling was higher than 2014/2015 Blackmon
12:22
Matt: Aaron Judge is on pace to hit 47 HRs this season. This is plausible, right?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: On the high side of course. I do th ink he’s a real hitter.
12:23
The Cincinnati Kid: Why the Trumbo power outage? Do you see anything that stands out besides balls not going over the fence?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: He’s still hitting HRs actually – it’s the BA that’s dropped off.
12:23
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Is an August trade for an older, highly paid hitter a possibility for MIA, or are they relegated to picking up someone like A-Rod to fill the hole left by Stanton’s injury?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: I think they have to go for scraps
12:23
JD15: Odd that the Tigers let Fulmer go 9 yesterday with such a big lead and a possible innings limit. Is there bullpen really that bad? hah. How do you think teams should handle young pitchers when they are in playoff hunt?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to tell just how strict the Tigers are going to be with the inning count.
12:23
Dan Szymborski: He was really coasting there.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: But also, it was super hot and they had that big lead.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: I’m torn on whether he should have been pu lled.
12:24
Kevin: Do you think the Braves will move on from Markakis this offseason?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: No
12:24
John: Luis Severino is destined for the bullpen, isn’t he? If so, is he good enough to become Dellin’s set-up man in the reasonable future?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s too soon to give up on him as starter
12:25
CamdenWarehouse: I don’t recall Kim Ng in the conversation for any of the GM jobs last year. Do you think she’ll be a contender for future jobs or has she been passed by?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky, it’s such a political structure
12:25
Paul: Shouldn’t my Orioles try and bring Markakis aboard, it’s obvious he cleared waivers. Get Atlanta to kick in cash.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Joey Rickard will eventually be back – so the O’s are set in the scrappy-white-corner-outfielder-that-deluded-people-think-is-legitimate-starter category.
12:27
Jimmy: Contracts included, because why wouldn’t they be, would you rather have Miley or Miranda?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Miranda long-term, but Miley this year.
12:27
JD15: Do you think Cubs will go after Papelbon? If so can he contribute in the playoffs? Would he even make the playoff roster with Chapman, Rondon, Strop (most likely healthy), Edwards, Grimm and Wood all solid later inning options.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: No
12:27
LudeBurger: will Jose Quintana ever get 10 wins in a season?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: He won’t be a White Sock forever.
12:27
Eric: Do you think Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair can figure it out and atleast be solid backend starters?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: I remain slightly otpimsitic
12:27
Zonk: Who is your early pick for NL MVP? Bryant? Daniel Murphy?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Bryant
12:27
j6takish: You would think a team that supposedly ruined Joba chamberlain by yo-yoing would be more cautious about yanking around pitching prospects
12:27
Dan Szymborski: You’d think a lot of things in this life.
12:27
Big Joe Monferrant: Could the Reds trade Votto this off season?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: I think they could.
12:28
Need An Arm?: If the Dodgers do pick up an August arm, who’s a semi-likely candidate?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: It’s a bit tricky as there’s no comprehensive list of who passed through waivers
12:28
James: What do you think of Freddie Freeman? He’s on the verge of having career highs in homers, Slugging, and OPS. He also leads MLB in LD% and 6th in Hard Hit
12:29
Dan Szymborski: He’s a terrific hitter who won’t be around for the next good Braves team and Atlanta’s spending his value on a lousy team instead of a trade.
12:29
Jack: Judge, Frazier, Fowler, Rutherford, Cave, McKinney, Williams, Amburgey, Molina: 9 of the Yanks top 30 prospects are outfielders. With this in mind, how desperate should the Yanks be to get rid of Ellsbury and what would they have to do to convince another team to take the contract?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: If they can convince another team to take Ellsbury, t hey should allow them regardless of their situation
12:29
Q-Ball: After 20+ years of trying, are the Rockies finally getting a group of good young pitchers? Do you feel that whole “Coors ruins pitchers” thing is an overblown crutch for the fact that the Rockies have done a poor job developing pitching?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s an overblown issue. It’s a challenge, of course
12:30
Dan Szymborski: But really, it’s not like they’ve had amazing front offices.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: I think that at least some of the issues come down to ad hoc hypothesis
12:32
Alex: Over/Under on these Hall of Fame chances. Halladay – 80% Tulowitzki – 10%
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Under, probably under sadly
12:32
mijo: Do you see the rangers fading down the stretch? Baseruns has them around 500 and Ian Desmond seems to be slumping…
12:33
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll be OK – the team has more talent on it than at the start of the season
12:33
JD15: I feel like everyone is on board the Yankees hype train for the years after 2017. I know they had a successful deadline and have money to spend, but prospects are still prospects, right? Plus teams like Boston are not going to get any worse on paper
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Money to spend is kind of overrated. You can’t just go to the David Price store and buy as many as you need.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: The FA market is a wreck the next two seasons.
12:33
Alex: If you get to take on going forward… Aaron Sanchez or Danny Duffy?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Sanchez – Duffy’s already just a year and two months from FA
12:34
RMR: What should we make of SP Cody Reed? He killed it in the minors (in limited innings), but is getting killed in the majors. His strikeout rate is solid, but his highly variable peripherals like BABIP and HR/FB are horrific. Do we just need to see more innings or should we be worried?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: He’s a pitcher, always be worried. Let him get more innings and see what happens.
12:34
mtsw: Did the Orioles trade for Steve Pearce just to have him languish on the bench to tank his free agent value? Dude has a 148 wRC+ and can’t crack the lineup (I know he’s hurt but even before that he was only being used vs LHP)
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Don’t ask me to explain this.
12:34
mijo: Should the Royals trade Danny Duffy with only one year left of team control and the haul they could get for him this offseason?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: They should at the very least consider this. I have an article on ESPN that touches on the gaping abyss the Royals face post-2017.
12:35
Lenny: Apparently Caminero has a flat fastball. How much does that matter if you throw 100mph?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Can you name the pitcher in Pirates disfavor, gone to Seattle because of trade waivers? CAMINERO! CAMINERO!
12:36
Dan Szymborski: He whiffs everybody with his super high speed, he’s a hair-raisin’, lead-blazin’ pitching machine! CAMINERO! CAMINERO!
12:37
Dan Szymborski: His control’s a bit spotty, it makes M’s fans nervous, unexplained walks are a matter for Scott Servais! CAMINERO! CAMINERO!
12:38
Dan Szymborski:

12:38
Dan Szymborski: ANd I’ll just stick this in here unexplained
12:38
Avi: The Mets are fundamentally broken. The way they’ve handled Conforto would make any player depressed.
12:38
JKD: Is there any better demonstration of “you can never have too much pitching” than Mets/Nats 2015-16? Mets deal Fulmer from “surplus” and… yikes. Nats resist temptation to deal Giolito and Lopez, and lo and behold, Ross’ setbacks means they get to audition the two of them for a rotation spot, and it looks like it’s Lopez who whos it, for now.
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Pitchers will break your heart.
12:38
Will Graham: Fulmer or Naquin for Rookie of the Year?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Gotta go with Fulmer right now.
12:39
Slew: Who are the top 3 teams in the AL? (In order preferably)
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Cleveland, Toronto, Texas
12:39
Blaine: Why shouldn’t the O’s call Atlanta and get our captain back? Would be a big boost overall for our club.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: I’d rather the O’s acquired Captain Crunch. At least he can stop the Soggies.
12:39
Mitch: What would the Mariners be able to get for Cruz in the offseason? Any chance they explore moving him?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Don’t think it happens as long as the M’s believe they’re contenders.
12:40
Q-Ball: On top of another stellar 10-win season, it appears Mike Trout is stuck in an organization with little young talent, awful farm system, dead money, and all around terribleness other than Trout. So the Angels keep him, right?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Naturally
12:40
Rick Roll: I know I should know this, but what does loogy stand for again?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Lefty One Out GuY
12:40
BJOGC: Cardinals sneak into wild card, defeat dodgers in wild card game, upset cubs in NLDS in defeat red sox in world series. On a scale of 1-10, how pissed would the blogosphere be?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: 7
12:40
Turdface: Do you think the Cards will let Reyes start this year?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:40
Wayne: Year the Braves return to the playoffs?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: 2019?
12:40
Logan: Does Matt Kemp and his big power help Freeman at all? (He’s been on a tear!) Or is Kemp horrible and it’s just a imaginary theory on protection?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Why would a pitcher change his approach and make Freddie Freeman more dangerous because he’s afraid of a batter who is an easy out?
12:41
Bork: Dan ‘ESPN #notfangraphs’ Szymborski
12:41
Dan Szymborski: I can still take credit!
12:41
mtsw: Is it just me or is the Rockies’ rotation really good now? Are they contenders next year if they can upgrade the lineup into a cromulent (Coors-adjusted) unit?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: It’s a good rotation. My big concern with the Rockies isn’t their player development, just their ability to harness all the value of their major league roster and maximize their eventual team quality
12:41
Matt: Just rewatched Idiocracy recently. Have you ever thought of employing a 2500 AD Costo-esque greeter in your chats? “Welcome to Dan’s chat. I love you”.
12:42
Dan Szymborski: This chat is on a shoestring budget.
12:42
Von Schloss: Do you like Seattle’s chances at the postseason?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Still 30-40% or so. The nice thing for the AL wild cards is that realistically, there are two WC spots that are available, while there’s really just one in the NL
12:43
Von Schloss: Are you buying the story that Harper has been playing through pain for some time?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: It’s possible.
12:43
fresh basil: Is Jose Ramirez becoming Altuve Jr.?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: I’m just happy he’s finally meeting the league-average player projections ZiPS gives him every damn year
12:43
Tom: Have you ever played Divinity: Original Sin? What’s your preferred combo for classes?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: I have it but haven’t played it yet (sorry, this was for Lightning Round)
12:44
Homer: Do the mets try to move grandy and the 1yr/15mil left on his contract this offseason? Would he be hard to move? Could they get anything in return for him or would they have to eat cash?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: They might try. They could get something, but not a lot
12:44
greg: Do you have any hope at all for Jason Heyward to turn things around? What adjustments would he need to make?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to tell. If the answer was easy, it would have already been done.
12:44
Dan Szymborski: But every year he struggles offensively, that ceiling gets lower and lower, like a Willy Wonka hallway.
12:44
Caveman Jones: Does Sandoval get another crack at starting 3B next year for the Red Sox? Shaw has been garbage since May.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll at least give him a token chance
12:45
Mike: Once Buck retires, the O’s are done!!
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Buck’s never retiring.
12:45
greg: Given his delivery and command issues, do you still see Alex Reyes as a starter long-term?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Until he proves otherwise
12:45
mtsw: Should the league investigate ways to increase the ball’s air resistance to (presumably) disadvantage fireballers and give a boost to guys who rely on movement? Seems like most people recognize the “you have to throw 95 and everyone will blow out their elbow” equilibrium as a not-good one for anyone.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: WIFFLE BALL
12:45
Dock Ellis: There’s no reason to ever have a RP win the Cy Young is there? I can’t imagine ever having someone at my job win the Employee of the Year if they’re only a part timer working 15 hours a week.
12:46
Dan Szymborski: You’d need pretty special circumstances.
12:46
Rick: ARod to Miami?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: As I said on Twitter, A-Rod’s done, but that doesn’t keep them from using Chris Johnson
12:46
Mike: Who do the Orioles have left to trade? Their farm systems is bare like the Angels. Their pitching is weak, they just invested huge on Chris Davis so their pockets are empty. Machado looks like a goner.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Nah, the Angels farm is Day 3 of Blizzard Convenience Store Shelves empty. For the O’s system, there’s 3-6 inches of snow in the forecast, but you’re not reduced to buying the Cream of Fart soup.
12:47
Q-Ball: Can a last-place team have the MVP? You know who I’m talking about, don’t you?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Corey Dickerson, of course.
12:48
Rob: Who do you think gets traded by the White Sox this winter? I have so little faith they will do this the right way. Need a full rebuild..,
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Nobody.
12:49
Matt: Hello from inside Jersey Mike’s, Dan. You want me to get you anything?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I prefer indie cheesesteak, but I’ll take one. Wiz wit, please
12:50
Alex: You sure do hate Nick Markakis don’t you? In general the guy has had a nice career, and means alot to Baltimore fans. And he’s been solid for Atlanta.
12:50
Dan Szymborski: He had a nice run in Baltimore. There’s no reason to want him on a contending team these dyas. He’s a mediocre defensive corner outfielder with a 97 OPS+. He’s solid in the sense that he’s not a gas or a liquid.
12:50
A cat: Once the post A-Rod/ new kids euphoria wears off, does CC get traded after clearing waivers?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: No
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Dumped maybe
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Going back to Markakis, I can have no interest in 90s Rolling Stones albums and still appreciate their classic stuff.
12:52
Frank: So the Braves should just trade any MLB player who has value? Just call up AAA players to fill most of 25 man roster and win maybe 40 games a year? And just hope we can call up 15 top prospects at 1 time and be contenders over-night? Instead of building a ballclub over a couple years
12:52
Dan Szymborski: They should. Once the arrow’s loose, it’s gonna fly.
12:52
Hal: Comparing Olympians across sports is stupid and pointless but Bolt winning 100/200/4×100 in three straight Olympics is more impressive than what Phelps has done and I’ll fight anyone who says otherwise
12:52
Dan Szymborski: My sister would adore you.
12:53
Dan Szymborski: She already didn’t like Phelps from high school. The fact that she’s a medical professional and he uses cupping just makes her angrier.
12:53
Big B: Has Jason Heyward basically just mailed it in after signing that huge deal, or what?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if he’s mailed it in – he’s gone through long periods of sucktastic hitting before
12:53
HugoZ: Freeman is a Brave through 2021. You’re certain they won’t be any good before then?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Hanging onto his value just to get a declinign Freeman at the very end of his contract?
12:54
Q-Ball: Between Schwarber and Soler who do you believe in more as a long-term OF? Would Schwarber bring back a clearly larger return in trade?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Schwarber in that Soler’s spent two years baking in the disappointment
12:54
the one: is alex reyes the greatest pitcher to have ever pitched a pitch before?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Charlie Hough.
12:54
mtsw: Better rebuilding strategy: candid, Astros/Cubs-style teardown or “create the illusion we’re trying to compete while we tear down?”
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Well, given that choice, Astros/Cubs
12:55
Dan Szymborski: A complete teardown isn’t necessary for every team.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: But sometimes the house gets so riddled with termites that all you can start from scratch
12:55
Andrew: An analyst over the weekend said that tracking technology like Statcast now enables teams to adjust to rookie hitters within 1-2 series, rather than 1-2 months like in the past. With young players having their mettle tested so quickly, should projection systems like ZIPS start weighing smaller sample sizes more heavily?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: I’ve done a good bit of research on this subject too – I’m satisfied with the weighting.
12:56
Hank: Mike Trout is amazing, but I can’t give a guy the MVP when his team might not crack 65 wins….
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Why not? What’s the point of an individual award if the best player in baseball being deserving depends on whether the team has Jered Weaver and Jhoulys Chacin starting?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: If you’re going to carry out this logic, then it also can’t be teams that win the division by a lot becuase by the same definition, they could not have been valuable.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: There’s no Cub that prevents the Cubs from making the playoffs if they retired at the start of the season.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Or even from teh division.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: So if you’re going to carry out this logic, your entire MVP ballot better consist of every player on the second wild card team.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Or, you know, we could give the individual award for the best player to the best player without all the layers of bullshit around it.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Even the MVP ballot defines value as “the sum of a player’s offense and defense”
12:59
Greg: Why should the Braves trade Teheran and Freeman if offers are not of fair value?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: 1. Who says they weren’t. They picked up Matt Kemp after all.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: 2. Given the irrelevancy of their 2016, 2017, 2018 performance, an underwhelming offer may be way more valuable than what they gain from keeping them
1:01
johnforthegiants: “There are few enough jobs and so many talented baseball out there that you need to have a reason *to keep* a GM in order to not fire them.” Should the Cubs keep Theo?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Well, yeah
1:01
Doug: Why so much hate for Markakis? It seems like every week your bashing the guy.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: I’m not the ones asking questions about him
1:01
Matt: I’m back from Jersey Mike’s, Dan. You didn’t respond in time, so I didn’t get you anything. Maybe next week.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Banned from future chats.
1:01
Matt: Have you ever thought about getting those shoestrings at Costco? They’re probably pretty cheap.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: WHERE IS MY CHEESESTEAK
1:01
O’s #1 fan: Dude, you trashing Markakis every chat is a joke, shows how horrible of a analyst you are.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: # 1 fan, eh? Must be a pretty disappointing list.
1:02
Jon: Dan, let’s try some word association. I say a word, and you rate how angry it makes you feel with 1 being not angry at all and 10 being a blind rage ; pony, dolphin, Maier, tea-kettle, Cistulli, potpourri
1:02
Dan Szymborski: 4, 2, 7, 4, 50, 6
1:02
Jeremy: Is part of the process for creating projections and models testing previous years data to see how closely the projections match what actually ended up happening?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Always
1:02
mtsw: Is a world where a kinda-bad but still perfectly serviceable vet like Markakis isn’t worth starting a world where we just need more expansion teams? Relatedly, is the younger-skewing aging curve possibly a result of more and more qualified guys competing for a static number of roster spots every season?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: Possibly, but if we have two more expansion teams, then we’ll end up with eight divisions of four, which is too horrifying to think of
1:03
the one: when i was a star swimmer cupping was called getting a hickey!
1:03
Matt: Dan. Cups are used throughout the medical industry – they hold liquids (both utilital and consumable), solids (such as nuts, bolts, and bullets removed from bodies), as well as various ad-hoc uses (such as door stops). When will you admit that they are medical equipment?
1:03
did you know: if you eat at abdullah the butchers house of ribs you get a free side order of hepatitis
1:03
Bork: Is there an annual BBWAA convention? Do they offer free wheelchairs/scooters or do the members have to bring their own?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: No convention. They tend to meetup at different times, like meetings during the ASG and the winter meetings.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: A lot of the rules and policies seem to be passed off by tradition.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: When I was accepted I asked if there was like a rule list and the other guy snickered.
1:04
Von Schloss: How awesome is Edwin Diaz?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Very much so
1:05
Matt: Dan – you should stop such use of logic and reason in arguments. Its un-American. Are you a terrorist, Dan?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: I appreciate the word in my behalf but again WHERE IS MY CHEESESTEAK
1:05
James: Who would you rather have stating in CF for the next 3 years, Joc or JBJ?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: JBJ and I like Joc Strap
1:05
Jake: Taillon is going to be a stud. If Glasnow pans out, the Pirates could have a three-headed monster in their rotation for the next 3+ years
1:05
Mikey: Best strategy to get a question answered? Short & sweet.Witty. Thoughtful.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, the WHICH 7 OF THIS LIST OF 13 PLAYERS SHOULD I KEEP FOR NEXT YEAR doesn’t usually strike my fancy
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Save the difficult questions for Carson.
1:06
Jus sayin’: What are your favorite baseball topics these days?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Baseball!
1:06
JD15: Why are people so passionate about someone like Markakis? Who cares? Care more about Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, etc.
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I don’t get why I get a dozen Markakis questions a week.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: I keep thinking if I answer one, that’ll be the end of it, but Markakis Question Posers are apparently reproducing very quickly.
1:07
Bork: Are the BBWAA meetings over by 7 pm? It gives the members an hour to watch a game of their choice before bedtime.
1:07
Matt: Dan – I ran downstairs and got you your damn cheesesteak. Overnight was expensive, so I went with USPS 5-7 business day option.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: IT BETTER STILL BE HOT
1:07
JD15: Is the reason you like JBJ over Joc in CF due to
1) JBJ’s defense
2) JBJ’s bat
3) Joc’s bat
4) Nick Markakis
1:07
Dan Szymborski: I think JBJ’s just noather step up. I like Joc a lot
1:07
Dan Szymborski: OK, let’s get this Lightning Round going.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: You know the rules, I must answer any off-topic question with the noted exceptions until I catch up or get annoyed or you guys sufficiently tick me off.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: and GO
1:08
Von Schloss: Played No Man’s Sky yet? What do you think?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: I have not. Given the launch issues, I’m waiting to see how they iron out.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: I was already growing ambivalent about the gameplay. No multiplayer, no real building, etc.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: a bad launch has a way of turning off a game forever – I don’t think I’ve tried Sim City since the first week
1:09
Dan Szymborski: certainly won’t again, see Cities Skylines
1:09
Ben Brode: Thoughts on the new adventure? Seems like some of the new cards will have a good effect on the meta, hello beast druid!
1:09
Dan Szymborski:

1:09
Dan Szymborski: There’s so much evil in this world
1:09
Brian: What’s the proper etiquette when an Uber driver claims he’s lost? Doesn’t the APP show them where to go?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure, haven’t run into it.
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Though did get into a hilarious situation in which I got in the wrong uber car and we got like 5 miles before realizing it
1:10
Dan Szymborski: It looked like the car I was waiting for and he was pickingup a Dan too
1:10
mtsw: #fav7films is trending on twitter right now. what are your favorite 7 films?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Varies on the day, that’s too long for me to think about
1:10
John: Freeman will be a Free Agent in 2022. And you said Braves will return to playoffs in 2019, but that Freeman won’t be around for that. Freeman will be 29 years old in 2019.
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Maybe 2019.
1:11
Dan Szymborski: And he’ll likely be a worse player than he is now and there will be another two years of wasted value in the interim
1:11
Big Joe Monferrant: Do you think they will trade Votto? Or that they should trade Votto?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: The question was whether they could. I think they could.
1:11
CamdenWarehouse: Are you a fan of Aaron Sorkin?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: No, I don’t his dialogue style. It’s too over-cute, if that makes sense.
1:11
Matt: If you go to Jersey, is it just called “Mike’s”?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: I’m sure they knife you for goign to a chain
1:11
Keith: What should I do now that my favorite bartender at my favorite bar has left? Go to a new bar or just try to go find her and ask her out?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Are you sure the connection wasn’t her giving you alcohol?
1:12
johnforthegiants: Do you like the Volkswagen 2.0 TSI engine?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: I usually stay away from German cars.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Less choice of mechanics
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Of course, I’ve only actually bought one car
1:13
Dan Szymborski: The Ford Tempo I was given when I was 16 lasted me 10 years just fine and the Mazda I bought in 2004 just passed 100K miles and has never given me any problems.
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Oh god, so many alternators in that Tempo.
1:13
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know why I drove that so long, long past the time I could easily afford a new card
1:13
mijo: Explain Cricket to me. I watched a basic rules video on youtube and I got nothin
1:14
Dan Szymborski: You wait for the british guy to through something and then you throw something off a stick and then you all get crumpets
1:14
Von Schloss: Are you going to play The Last Guardian? Shadow of the Colossus was awesome.
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Probably
1:14
mijo: Speaking of uber- where do you sit? Front seat or back seat?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Generally front
1:14
JD15: Where should I go on my honeymoon? Looking for sun, beach, relaxation
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I enjoy Grand Turk
1:14
mtsw: How come no one stepped into the RTS niche Starcraft II occupied? It seemed like people were digging it as an e-sport until balance problems ended up making the pro-level game unappealing to watch.
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I think the MOBA’s have taken a lot of that niche away
1:15
johnforthegiants: I have food in the trunk of my car. It hasn’t been refrigerated since 7:30 AM Chicago Standard Time. Should I eat it? It’s steak.
1:15
Dan Szymborski: I would
1:15
Chuncey Wiggins: I just rewatched the Matrix this weekend. What would be your neo-Goth hacker name?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Statisticx
1:15
Aaron: If 2 chatters with the same name ask a question, can you tell the difference between 1 chatter who asks 2 questions?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I do this in a haphazard fashion
1:15
Matt: Last week, Philly reprimanded a citizen who built a temporary pool at their block party. They used the hydrant to fill it up. Philly sited safety issues in the reprimand such as “turning on the fire hydrant could accidentally be aimed at a child sending them flying through the air”. True or False?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: I hope True because now I want to try it.
1:15
JD15: Most recent movie seen in theatre is….
How many stars did it get?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Star Wars Force Awakens.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: My friends aren’t that interested in movies and I hate going by myself.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: I feel I should be at least 70 before I’m in a theater mid-day by myself
1:16
JD15: Do you watch Sherlock?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: At times. I tend not to watch many shows until they’re done
1:16
CamdenWarehouse: It makes sense, I just watch it thinking “I know people don’t talk this way but I wish they did”
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Even the storylines are too cute.
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Storylines shouldn’t feel like they’re resolved by the writer just by deciding he likes that result, but from a natural flow of the events of the storyline.
1:18
Dan Szymborski: All of Sorkin’s things seem to start with where he wants the end to be, what he wants to say, and the characters and events are just plugged in to reach that end
1:18
Mook man : Favorite celebrity crush?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Natalie Dormer
1:18
Q-Ball: Is it time for a change?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I haven’t gotten dressed yet
1:18
if you : don’t buy german cars you are a racist
1:18
Dan Szymborski: I’m half-German!
1:18
Matt: Dan – I hope your happy. I was just contacted by the FEDs. Apparently mailing food is a sign of terrorism. Now I’m a terrorist, Dan. I didn’t even know that about myself!
1:19
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have my cheesesteak, so whatever they do to you is kosher in my book
1:19
Make WAR not Love: Why is Golf and not Tug-o-War back in the Olympics? Nothing settles who’s the best country like pulling your enemies into a mud pit
1:19
Dan Szymborski: I want to see American Gladiators events in the Olympics
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Maybe the Aggro-Crag
1:19
DEF: what if they went to 4 divisions/8 teams instead of 8 divisions/4 teams?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Better, but we know they won’t
1:19
The Decadent Moose: I know you don’t watch much television, but make time for BoJack Horseman at least (Netflix). It’s in your wheelhouse.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: I’ll note it
1:19
Bork: The Last Guardian will be a huge disappointment. I just can’t see it succeeding.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Possible.
1:19
Chuncey Wiggins: If you were forced to drink something from someone’s navel, what drink would you choose?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Pure grain alcohol.
1:20
JD15: Favorite midwest ballpark (any level)?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Cincy
1:20
Me: Do you play MtG too?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: I played blue-white control ages ago, but not in a long timne
1:20
Me: Follow up to MtG question-if so who’s the best limited player on Fangraphs staff?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: I definitely don’t know.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: I’ll say David Wiers
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Without even knowing if he plays
1:20
Dan Szymborski: He’s as nerdy as me
1:20
CamdenWarehouse: Should the Orioles put a bronze statue of Markakis in CF with the rest of the greats?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Now you’re just trying to get me in trouble with those guys!@
1:21
LudeBurger: Hello? Submitting a question to keep Lightning Round going *heh*
1:21
Dan Szymborski: I can cut it off if I get annoyed
1:21
Dan Szymborski: This isn’t a suicide pact
1:21
Matt: It was true, Dan. Now to clarify your position – do you want to be shot with a fire hydrant, or do the shooting?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Shooting. If children are the future, the best time to stop them is now.
1:21
Leif Erikson: No Mans Sky on PC, are you having the issues I’ve been reading about?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t purchased because of those issues.
1:21
Jasperdog: History of the Cistulli rage factor?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Well, first there were the futuristic colonies that existed in 3000 BC until Carson went back in time and destroyed, settting man back millenia
1:22
Dan Szymborski: and then so on
1:22
Sirras: Do you enjoy playing knifey-spoony?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: I’m a FIDE IM in knife-identification
1:22
Chuncey Wiggins: Why is Elon Musk convinced we live in a simulation? Is it because the Tron remake was so bad?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: It’s a common philosophical argument and not one I necessarily disagree with.
1:22
Dingleberry: Keith Law says to never read the comments section. Do you?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: I used to, but anyone coherent can probably find me on Twitter
1:23
Matt: On a scale of No to Yes – have you watched any Olympics this year?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:23
Dan Szymborski: What’s in between? Nes? Yo?
1:23
Wicomico: $3M purse for this years winner of the White Marlin Open in OC. Wanna go fishing?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Do you mind a fishing partner who is mostly there to crush a 24-pack?
1:23
Me: It’s time for a cool change
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Cool Ranch
1:23
Russell: What summer Olympic event would you have the best chance at getting a medal?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Internet Sarcasm
1:24
Erik: Is the first female major leaguer already born?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: There’s an argument that all points present and future actually already exist
1:24
Chuncey Wiggins: Will E-sports be an Olympic event?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Probably not. I don’t see the necessity.
1:24
CamdenWarehouse: Ninja Warrior for the Olympics!
1:24
Gary: Why do you live in Cincinnati? Have you considered anywhere else?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Family reasons. Mom’s nearby and as she gets older, she needs me around.
1:25
mike: how many mlb parks have you been to? favorite? least?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: About 30. Camden, Veterans
1:25
CamdenWarehouse: if you could play Goldeneye’s MP on any real life location, where would it be?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: My house. I know all the angles.
1:25
Me: I’m glad you don’t play any more. Screw UW control.
1:26
Chuncey Wiggins: Would you rather watch for 45 minutes at a concert, a drum solo or the lead singer rant about Free Trade?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Drum solo. I’ve seen Peart live.
1:26
The Decadent Moose: Do you have an opinion on FF: Mobius (android game)?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Not yet
1:27
c: do you think junkrat is the equivalent of cancer?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: No
1:27
Bork: If we live in a simulation I rolled a terrible character.
1:27
Jonny: Who wins the upcoming Carlsen-Karjakin match?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: I’m so far behind in my chess knowledge
1:27
Me: 24 pack of what?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Whaddya think?
1:27
mijo: Simulation theory is really just a stand in for the longing of immortality. imo.
1:27
Matt: A range of integerst from [1,2] is still a range, Dan
1:27
Frederick: My coworker sniffles half the day before getting a tissue. Do I 1) throat punch him, or 2) throw him a box of Kleenex?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Why not both?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Sometimes you need to help people *and* hurt them.
1:28
Dan Szymborski: See Stannis and Davos.
1:28
Michael Fulmer: Am I lucky or good?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Both
1:28
Chris: If Nick Markakis were a video game character, what character would he be?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Vincent Valentine. Yeah, he was cool at the time, but we don’t need shitty games with him these days
1:28
Los: Why are you such a nerd but aren’t nerdy for pokemon?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: It kind of hit at an awkward time
1:29
Dan Szymborski: AND END
1:29
Dan Szymborski: OK, go away, the chat’s over.
1:29
Dan Szymborski: You can stay in the room, but nothing’s going to happen now.
1:30
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can read my work at ESPN.com, participate in my bewildering chats and see projections at FanGraphs, or interact with me for some unknown reason at DSzymborski on Twitter.
1:30
Dan Szymborski: Let me find a stupid graphic to go out on
1:31
Dan Szymborski:

1:32
Dan Szymborski: That’s what Ryan Howard doing Goldberg’s jackhammer on Jonathan Papelbon in a wrestling ring that looks like Camden Yards would look like.
1:32
Dan Szymborski: and END





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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  1. Olerud says:
    August 16, 2016 at 10:21 am

    Could we get the transcript up please?