Zach Britton Could Have a Real Cy Young Case
“Does Zach Britton have a shot at the Cy Young this year?”
It’s a question I didn’t take seriously at first. It’s only happened once in the last 20 years, and Eric Gagne’s 2003 season is perhaps the greatest season in the history of the modern closer. It comes complete with major league records — 55 consecutive single-season saves and 63 consecutive saves spanning multiple seasons — that helped justify the voter’s decision. There existed both the utter dominance and the storyline. But the Cy Young Award is now almost universally a starter’s award, and it’s been fair to wonder all this time whether Gagne could be the last reliever to win it, but it also might be time to start wondering whether this is the year it should happen again.
Our own Corinne Landrey just wrote about Britton’s potential for an all-time great season last week. After a trio of scoreless relief appearances since that post, Britton now holds the record for most consecutive scoreless appearances dating back to at least 1913, with 40. He hasn’t allowed a run since April 30. He’s got a shot at the single-season ERA record. He’s got a shot at the RA9 record. He still hasn’t blown a save, so he even has an outside shot at Gagne’s single-season record of perfect saves, though the Orioles would have to do a whole lot of close winning for Britton to save 19 of Baltimore’s final 45 games. At the same time, at this point in Gagne’s 2003 season, he had 40 saves. Britton currently has 37.
That being said, we can still sort the pitching WAR leaderboards and be reminded of how much more starters can offer their team, on average, than relievers. Even with Britton’s utter dominance, his FIP-based WAR still falls outside the top-30 for American League pitchers, and even his RA9-WAR barely has him cracking the top 20. He’s thrown 50 innings. Chris Sale has thrown 160. That’s a lot of ground to make up.
And yet, we know WAR isn’t the only way to measure a player’s value, and that might be especially true of relievers. While our reliever WAR formula contains a leverage adjustment to help account for the importance of late and close innings, it’s still a specific-context-neutral statistic, and context-based stats like Win Probability Added or RE24 can do as good of a job, if not better, of telling the story of what a reliever’s done. Maybe the story’s not what you’re interested in — WAR and WPA are attempting to do two different things, so it’s really a matter of what question you’re asking — but if the question you’re asking is more context- and results-oriented, Britton’s season becomes something of an outlier:
Pitching Win Probability Added leaders, 2016
- Zach Britton, +4.35 WPA
- Clayton Kershaw, +3.72
- Andrew Miller, +3.07
- Aaron Sanchez, +3.04
- Roberto Osuna, +2.99
WPA isn’t a perfect statistic either, but it provides an alternate lens through which to view Britton and his relieving peers that’s more sympathetic to the idea that we might not be capturing the full extent value of an elite reliever or bullpen with WAR. As always, the correct answer lies somewhere in the middle.
But Britton’s lead over the rest of the AL in WPA makes for an interesting jumping off point, and the lack of a standout starter in the AL only compounds the issue. Sanchez, the leader among AL starters in both WPA and RA9-WAR, might be the favorite, though the question of how many innings he’ll throw is a real one that could stand to hurt his Cy Young chances. Jose Quintana has been dominant, but will voters look past a win-loss record that might be below .500 on a non-playoff team? Corey Kluber’s ERA doesn’t match his peripherals, and Cole Hamels’ peripherals don’t match his ERA. If there were ever a year for a reliever to step up and make a real run at the Cy Young Award, it would be this one, and Britton’s doing it.
His WPA (4.4) rivals the highest WAR figures being posted by starters (Quintana 5.0 RA9, Kluber 4.2 FIP). At the rate he’s going, he seems all but certain to join the exclusive class of 28 relievers to have posted +5.0 WPA in the last 25 years. On a per-game basis, Britton’s year-to-date numbers have him on pace to join 2003 Gagne, 2000 Keith Foulke, and 1996 Troy Percival as the only four relievers to crack +6.0 WPA in a season. While Britton’s season might not be generating the same sort of attention that surrounded Gagne’s, it might wind up being similarly impressive.
The Orioles are, once again, outperforming their run differential and BaseRuns record, and once again, a lot of that has to do with a league-leading bullpen WPA. Britton accounts for more than half of that, and has a higher WPA himself than the entire relief corps of 27 teams.
I’m confident in stating my position that Britton, at the very least, would deserve to be in the mix if voting happened today. To me, that’s already a surprise. A couple years ago, I couldn’t have imagined being sympathetic toward a reliever’s Cy Young case. But “in the mix” is about as far as I can go. I have a hunch that by the time voting rolls around, there will be four or five “right” answers. Britton might be one of them.
Wade Davis received seven top-five votes last year — including a third-place and a fourth-place vote — and Britton’s having an objectively better season. Even Andrew Miller and Shawn Tolleson received a pair down-ballot votes each. The voting pool certainly isn’t against the idea of considering a reliever for the award, but even still, I’d guess Britton would need some help. Without a playoff bid, it’s hard to see it happening. The narrative of Britton relieving the Orioles into the playoffs would be a huge part of his case. I’d guess, too, that some sort of notable record would have to be in play, preferably the ERA record. A playoff bid and an ERA record would go a long way. Britton’s also going to need outside help, in avoiding dominant performances over the final two months by the Kluber’s and Quintana’s and Sanchez’s of the league. Half of the reason why we’re having this discussion is because the starters are letting us. There’s still a lot of baseball left to play.
Britton himself seems skeptical. And for good reason, given the history of the award. He told ESPN, “For a reliever to win it, they’d have to do something pretty much off the charts to get it.” Right now, Britton might be sufficiently off the charts.
August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
What a trash idea. It’s so disrespectful to full time pitchers. Relievers are the same as DH’s and should be viewed by voters as such.
Here, have a downvote.
Counterpoint: Nah
Countercounterpoint: But whom, then? It will probably be Hamels, and it probably should be Quintana, but how do you really get worked up about this lukewarm soup?
I don’t see why Hamels is in consideration. His secondary stats aren’t great, FIP/WAR isn’t great. The ERA is solid, but not really any different than Happ/Sanchez/Quintana/Fulmer. If you think it’s cause the voters will like his W/L record then Happ/Sanchez have better cases. Hamels is good by RA/9 WAR, but he’s not the best option there either.
The front runners right now have to be Sanchez/Quintana, as they’re the best balance of run prevention and advanced stats. Britton has been awesome but I have a lot of trouble putting him ahead of Sanchez or Quintana.
Hamels has the traditionalist resume that sportwriters love, FG type nerds hate, and make for the same dull awards season arguments that people have been slogging through for going on 20 years.
12-4 record, 3rd in ERA (among starters who’ve pitched a full slate), probable playoff team.
But even among traditionalists, he’s not that great a candidate. Happ and Sanchez are equal or better by the traditional numbers.
Am I crazy in seeing Quintana as *not* a clear front runner? He’s got a 3.42 FIP and a 4+ xFIP. He’s good, no doubt, but he’s not running away with anything.
Using FIP-, Quintana ranks 5th in the AL at 78, only Kluber (70), Duffy (75), Sanchez (76) and Tanaka (77) are better. Yeah, there’s a gap between his ERA/FIP, but he already has one of the best FIP- in the AL, so it’s not a stretch to pick him as a front runner because of the fact he’s prevented more runs than you’d think by FIP. Marco Estrada is a good example of someone in this vein, as he’s shown again that he’s able to induce weak contact and tons of IFFB, which doesn’t show up in FIP, but the result is a fantastic ERA that’s not luck or a fluke.
Over nearly 900 innings Quintana has an 8.5 HR:FB%, so I think xFIP will always rate him a bit high.
If you go strictly by fWAR it’s Kluber who should be the front runner. If you use FIP and account for run prevention (RA/9) WAR, then I think Sanchez/Quinana lead the pack.
Just give it to Trout and call it a day
Considering he’s bound to get snubbed for the MVP again, may as well give him something
I agree, he doesn’t deserve it.
Hear me out:
Outside of ERA (which is only in an absurdly small sample size of 50 innings) and WPA, Britton isn’t really even the leagues best reliever. He’s actually outclassed by betances in FIP and xFIP, by almost a full run and 3/4 of a run, respectively; his strikeout rate is nothing special for a closer (29th!!!!! among relievers with 40+ innings pitched). His absurd groundball rates make up for some of this but he’s still posting a high LOB% even for a closer. If you’re willing to write off guys like Hamels for having fluky good years, it’s only fair to write off Britton too (Britton actually has a larger FIP-ERA gap than Hamels). He’s a good closer having a great run, to really be cy young worthy as a reliever you truly have to standout relative to your peers. Take Gagne for example, he was nearly as good as the next 2 relievers COMBINED by FIP based WAR when he won it, while Britton barely cracks the top 5. Again, good reliever having a great run, by no means cy young worthy.
Here is a good example of someone that does not understand statistics.
How so? Betances and others have him beat by almost every metric available- DRA, FIP, cFIP, xFIP, SIERA, etc- the only thing he has going for him is his WPA. You’re willing to give the CY Young to a reliever that is on a seemly unsustainable run, and even while on that run hasn’t even been the clear best reliever? Any real counter argument other than “you don’t understand”…?
After his shutout yesterday Michael Fulmer is now the qualified ERA leader in the AL. His peripherals aren’t fantastic but his ERA is significantly lower than the next best. Maybe he could make a legitamitely run?
Not saying it is impossible, but he’s going to need to rack up some Ws to get there. Out of the 44 currently qualified AL pitchers, his rank (and percent of leader)
Wins: 14th, 63%
Innings Pitched: 43rd, 74%
Strikeouts: 31st, 58%
WAR: 13th, 62%
RA/9-WAR: 3rd, 94%
And he may get bonus narrative points for being a rookie
Absolutely not. Even if he manages to get through the season without allowing another run, no. Throwing one inning in relief isn’t remotely the same as starting, it should not be considered for the award.
Give relievers their own award, whatever, but 60 innings will never approach the value of 200+ innings.
You would have a point if there wasn’t already precedent but there is…
I said they shouldn’t be considered, not that they can’t
For those of you down voting me, consider what a small sample a closer has at the end of the year. We are talking about 60-80 innings of work over a season. That’s just a phenomenally small sample.
Every single year some young reliever comes out of nowhere to dominate (look at Edwin Diaz!), and many of them flame out the following year. Or return to mediocrity.
I love a great shut down closer. I love the feeling that any lead is secure if you can just scrape together one more run. That is a very valuable thing. It’s not as valuable as starting, it’s just not.
Why are the best prospects all starters? Because they are more valuable. Why do starters converted to the pen (like Britton!) have more success? Because it’s easier.
Even if you are right and Britton flames out in 2017, it doesn’t change the brilliance of his 2016 season, that’s kind of like saying Keuchel shouldn’t have won last year because he sucks this year.
Over a ridiculously small sample. Imagine how good Sale could look over 75 innings throwing max effort. Britton is a closer because he is a failed starter, just like all relievers.
Fwiw, I agree that generally relievers shouldn’t be considered except in special circumstances, which I think this season in the AL qualifies.
We don’t know how good Sale would be if he threw 75 innings max effort, because he hasn’t done it. John Smoltz put up worse numbers than Britton has as a reliever (still good, but not as good as Britton) despite being a solid above-average starter in the tail end of his career.
I don’t see what’s so crazy about saying that, in a year with a (thus far) breathtakingly good reliever, and a relatively lukewarm collection of top starters, a reliever might actually be able to compete with the top starters. It’s hyperbolic to say that there is no situation where a reliever is more valuable than a starter.
I can see why you might say my original comment was hyperbolic, I would agree. But the math is almost impossible for any scenario to really work, as long as we are treating the Cy Young as a real measure of the most valuable pitching performance of the year.
The case for Britton this year is based primarily on ERA and WPA. Of course ERA is problematic to begin with, but even more so for relievers. By xFIP he is only the third (or fourth if you include Chapman) best reliever in the AL. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher, who has been helped by an excellent infield behind him. Do we credit him for that?
WPA is basically the clutch argument, which I could accept as a tiebreaker, but isn’t very compelling as the basis for a bid.
The near zero ERA is neat and all, but there isn’t much evidence he’s any better than several other relievers in his own division.
And value is value. Even with being exceptionally lucky (and good) this year, he’s still more than two wins behind among American League pitchers using RA wins or FIP wins. Leverage is included. Innings are innings, and elite starters get 3 times the innings of a closer any given year.
There isn’t much evidence…apart from the tons of evidence you just discussed, you mean. Having an ERA of almost 0 isn’t nothing, as far as evidence goes.
So much wrong with this that I don’t even know where to start.
1. You complete disregard the most important aspect of being a closer – leverage. To suggest that pitching in the 3rd inning of a game is the same as being brought in to protect a one run lead in the 9th is absurd.
2. Volatility occurs with every segment of the game. Take the 2015 leader board for hitters. 10 out of the top 15 have seen their production drop at least 30% (when compared to this year). That’s a lot of volatility. Now take a look at the 2016 leader board and notice how many “new” names there are. A bunch of guys that are doubling/tripling their production for 2015.
3. It is a false assumption that failed starters can easily convert to closers. Hit up the closer leader board and see how many were former MLB starters. It is entirely likely that a closer once started somewhere in their career. But that doesn’t mean that closers are comprised of a pool of starter rejects. Similar argument could be made for 2nd baseman or 3rd baseman. At some point in their careers, those guys probably were shortstops. Things change and they move off the position. That doesn’t make them chumps. We don’t refer to them as guys who couldn’t hack it at SS.
Leverage is important. It’s just not important enough to overcome the difference in innings. Look at the WAR leaderboard, that includes leverage. The absolute best relievers are <3 wins whether you look at RA wins or FIP wins.
And then, which is more important ERA or FIP? FIP WAR says Betences is the best reliever in baseball this year, but do you see anyone clamoring for his Cy Young bid? So basically we're back to the MVP arguments about clutchness and whether the playoff chase matters or not.
Of course there is volatility at every position. But if you are arguing that there is equal volatility among all positions, that is just plain silly. The primary reason relievers are so volatile is because we are dealing with such small samples to begin with.
I also never asserted that starters could easily be converted to relief, every one is different. What isn't deniable is that effects their potential overall value. I am a Mariners fan, I was pretty upset when they moved Diaz to the pen because it limited his long term value. It's worked out great of course, he's been amazing. But even as an elite reliever his ceiling is 2 – 3 wins, instead of potentially a 3 – 5 wins as a starter if he ever figured out a third pitch.
You keep using the stats that don’t reflect what a reliever does, as if that proves your case. Tell me the exact stats you’d use to decide the Cy Young, please, as that would make this discussion a lot easier.
Britton has a 1.45 ERA and 2.25 xFIP over 192 IP as reliever. Just because you haven’t been paying attention does not mean that he came out of nowhere.
I’m not an Orioles fan, but I am certainly aware of Britton. He is among the elite relievers in baseball like Miller, Betences and Jansen. None of that changes the fact that he pitches less than 80 innings a year, and that his ERA is largely a function of sequencing luck.
And being an extreme ground ball pitcher with a great infield defense helps too.
Sorry but I humbly disagree with this idea. Unless the RP has ~120-150 IP of utter dominance, they don’t deserve the best pitcher award. The argument ends there. They don’t do enough during the season to deserve it.
It helps that there isn’t an overwhelming starter this year, but I think to have a shot he’ll need to do the following
-Easily have most saves in AL (right now has 37, closest is 33)
-Orioles have to make the playoffs (looking decent at ~60% odds)
-Keep his ERA below 1. For this last one, the problem is with only 50 innings, just one outing of a few ER can easily ruin that.
Love the love that Quintana is getting.
I love the idea of an RP winning but still I’d go with an SP.
I think tbe biggest takeaasy from those stats is that 21yr old Osuna is one of he elite players in baseball, and nobody talks about him.
As for the SP, I like to use the ra9war/fipwar 50/50 split available on the Combined Leaderboards:
1.Quintana 4.4
2.Sanchez 4.2
3.Sale 4.0
3.Kluber 4.0
This is now kind of an open AL Cy Young debate thing so I’ll posit: what about Danny Duffy?
Likely unlikely but just some points:
2.82 ERA
3.16 FIP
9-1 record (I only include this because some voters care about such)
He’s 20-30 IP behind most of the other guys but he qualifies for the ERA title. He is though a good bit behind in WAR.
Certainly though he’ll get dinged for KC being a sub-.500 team and the time he spent in the bullpen.
I think you’ve got something here with Duffy. He has been incredible since switching to the rotation. That’s a good story, too. He could make a real run at it with a strong finish.
Others to consider: Verlander (another good story), and for those writers that still like W’s there is Porcello.
I am not saying Britton shouldn’t get it. I would like to see it if he keeps pitching like this the rest of the way. But there are some good options out there for SP’s to win it, not as shallow a candidate pool as it may seem on the surface.
How about the AL gets to award two MVP’s this year, and the NL gets to award 2 Cy Young’s?
He only comes out on top if you use pure WPA, so no thanks.
I’m an RE24 guy, which puts Britton top 5, but firmly behind Sanchez and Quintana.
Disclaimer: Am Orioles fan
I’ve been trying to research the guidelines for the Cy Young award without luck, so maybe someone can enlighten me here. To my knowledge the award is supposed to be for the most outstanding, or best pitcher in each league.
Going off that assumption, I don’t know that I agree with the disparity between SP/RP for the award. I understand the argument against pitchers/DH for the MVP award, because there is a measurable difference in contribution to the team’s success (only playing so many days/only hitting contributions).
If you’re considering the *best* pitcher in a league, sure, IP is a measure that you can use for that (a workhorse SP with a strong ERA, etc), but I don’t know that it’s necessarily a factor that should preclude a pitcher from consideration. If a pitcher is noticeably better than all others, they should win the award. Just because pitcher A throws 100+ more innings than pitcher B doesn’t make A better than B.
Looking for counter-arguments here, let me know what you think.
To be honest, I’m not even sure Britton is the best reliever this year. Take Andrew Miller for example – he’s pitched a similar number of innings, but he’s allowed 4 more runs. Do those 4 runs mean that Britton has been that much better than Miller, and thus deserving of the Cy Young over a SP no less? Otherwise they’ve been fairly comparable. If Britton’s entire case is built around the low ERA, then we’re essentially saying that 4 runs is what separates a great to elite reliever and a Cy Young calibre guy.
I never like it when a 60 inning reliever ends up winning over a guy who pitches 200+ innings. Innings matter, and I think there have been enough quality SPs that it’s tough to justify giving a Cy to Britton. Great season that he’s having, but I don’t think he should win.
Interesting point about the specific number of runs, it’s definitely easy to be mislead by average stats, thanks for reminding me to pay attention to raw number stats as well.
That being said, I agree with what you’re saying for the most part, with two things to mention as a result. Those 4 runs should be weighed much more heavily for an RP than an SP, and that not all IP are created equally. My point above was that just because someone throws 200+ innings doesn’t mean they were good innings. Counterpoint to my own, you probably wouldn’t be getting that high of an inning count if you were a bad SP.
Either way, an interesting discussion to hear both sides.
“The voting pool certainly isn’t against the idea of considering a reliever for the award, but even still, I’d guess Britton would need some help.”
I think the voting pool is 100% against the idea of considering a reliever.
A couple were happy to throw a 3rd/4th place vote to Davis and some down ballots to others guys as you noted, but those are largely symbolic.
You’ll see a handful of team beat writers throw a down-ballot MVP vote to the best player on the team they cover, even if he is objectively not a top 10 player.
This is like that, in that the vote is real but you’re not interpreting the intent correctly.
I’m a big believer – for better or worse – that the MVP/Cy Young awards are as much about narrative as they are stats. If you want a ‘best player’ or ‘best pitcher’ award, just pull up the WAR list and there you go. But there’s something about the story of a given season that these awards should reflect, I think.
With that said: thus far, the story of the season in the AL has been ‘there are no dominant starters, but here’s this reliever who’s breaking records.’ If he finished with a sub 0.50 ERA on a good Baltimore team, in a season without a Pedro or Clayton or Arrieta or Halladay or Clemens, then I’m fine with him getting the trophy. It’s what’s worth remembering about the season a decade from now, not ‘Cole Hamels and Jose Quintana were the best of a mediocre group of starters.’
I’m not totally against the idea, but I don’t think he should get a Cy Young for the same reasons why a SP should get an MVP. If he actually went more then 1 inning per save, maybe I’d go along with it, but some of his saves have come on only 1 or 2 batters. I think he’s been great this year and definitely deserves some recognition if he continues not to give up ER’s, but relievers already have their own award.
I don’t see him winning but I do wonder if the amount the Orioles rely on their pen weighs on voters minds. I also don’t see him lasting the whole year without a blown save.
Here would be my arguments against a reliever winning CYA:
[1] We know from research that going through a lineup multiple times is one of the more difficult aspects of pitching. Those that can do it consistently and effectively, make careers out of being a starting pitcher. Those that don’t, either get out of baseball or become a reliever.
[2] The innings pitched issue: A difference of 100+ IP is a very large difference.
[3] Relievers can pretty much just rely on 2 pitches and face 2-5 batters a game (the games they pitch).
I’m not discounting the importance of relievers and I’m not calling them “failed starters” in the regard that some do. But, in terms of overall contribution, there’s a big disparity in workload.
I think I value elite relievers a lot higher than most in the Fangraphs community, but the idea that a reliever should win Cy Young is silly. I’m not even sure there is a unanimous agreement that Zach Britton is the best reliever in the AL. If someone wanted to argue that Betances or Miller were better relievers, I don’t think I could argue too hard against it even though I’d disagree.
Miller and Britton are tied at 1.8 WAR and Betances is nearly one full WAR higher at 2.7 WAR. Using WAR for relievers is certainly iffy, but it is hard to overlook that, especially as you get into FIP/xFIP/SIERA. I mean Dellin Betances has put up a WPA over 4 each of the last two seasons (14-15) and he certainly wasn’t ever discussed for Cy Young. Which means Britton’s argument mainly comes from the added value of saves, which is the win-loss of the reliever world. Don’t get me wrong, saving 37 games without blowing a single one (yet) is damn impressive but at the end of the day we’re talking 65-70 innings of work.
Now, all that said, I have no idea who I’d vote to win AL Cy Young. There is hardly a stand out. Gun to my head I’d probably say Kluber, but if Danny Duffy keeps this up for another month and a half I’m not sure how you can deny him of the Cy Young even at ~170 innings. That’s certainly better than giving it to a reliever.
This is totally unscientific, but I’d value Britton’s resume much higher if he had more IP than G.
Part of the “level of dominance” a reliever needs to cross for me personally to see them as Cy-worthy is at least a couple >1IP outings. Like, the theoretical LOOGY who pitches one-third of an inning in 162 games, and gets 162 strikeouts with no hits allowed probably shouldn’t win the Cy Young, as amazing as that would be. Though, reasonable people can disagree with my “Perfect LOOGY” strawman.
Britton has been great, but I also agree with some other posts that suggest a pitcher who throws 70-80 innings should not win the Cy Young. Interesting topic though.
Aaron Sanchez 12-2 2.84 ERA, Rick Porcello 16-3 3.30 ERA, Danny Duffy 9-1 2.82 ERA, JA Happ 16-3 2.96 ERA
Too many people with too similar of stats to pick a AL CY now.
I really think it’s down to Kluber and Sanchez tbh. Britton has been otherwordly, but when you look at ERA, FIP, xFIP, fWAR, HR/9 and WPA two things stand out clearly: holy shit has Weaver been by far the worst pitcher in the AL, and Kluber and Sanchez have been the two best. I’d call it a coinflip between them for the Cy at this point.
Also, for the old school guys you can throw in Wins for both of them as they are both comfortably in the top 10 (tied for 7th) in wins on the season.
(Oh and I forgot to include FIP- which has Kluber and Sanchez in 1st and 3rd)
They really seem to stand above all the other potential contenders in my view.
I think the fact that THREE of the top five WPA pitchers are relievers further undermines this argument.