Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/29/22
12:09 |
: And we are here! There’s no queue, so feel free to ask anything off the top of your head.
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12:09 |
: I had some technical difficulties.
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12:09 |
: What are your thoughts on Kerry Carpenter and Ryan Kreidler
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12:10 |
: Definitely curious to see Carpenter’s ZiPS this year. His improvement in power this year has been insane, more than can be explained by the big bump in offense in the minors
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12:10 |
: He’s in the right organization to continue to get opportunities.
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12:11 |
: Would be funny if he turned out to be Spencer Torkelson instead of Spencer Torkelson
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12:11 |
: Which of your cats is most likely to conspire against you?
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12:11 |
: Constantine
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12:12 |
: He’s the moodiest of the quartet and will nip a little if you thwart him too much
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12:12 |
: If your cats formed an adventuring party what class would each of them be?
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12:12 |
: Constantine would be thief, Mercutio would be a fighter, Cassiopeia would be a black mage, and Justinian would be a monk
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12:12 |
: As a fan (who also understands long term consequences), what would your ideal Orioles off-season be?
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12:13 |
: Signing Rodon
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12:13 |
: Dont’ get obsessed with overpaying on third-tier role players like some teams to do when they approach contention
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12:14 |
: Don’t fall too much in love with players who happened to be here this year but aren’t part of the core talent
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12:14 |
: Are the Orioles just gonna be one of those organizations (Rays, Hou) who are on the cutting edge from now on?
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12:14 |
: I certainly hope so!
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12:15 |
: What’s the best stadium food you’ve ever eaten?
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12:15 |
: Well, I did one of those steamed crabs days at Camden around 1997 or 1998 so that obviously!
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12:16 |
: Hmm, actually probably a year or two later since I was buying beer
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12:16 |
: Biggest prospect surprises of ‘22?
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12:16 |
: Gunnar Henderson going from a good prospect to elite tier was a big one
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12:17 |
: Which Os infield prospect do you think will break out between westburg, ortiz, and norby? Could they trade one for pitching?
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12:17 |
: J-West
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12:17 |
: Can the cubs compete next year?
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12:17 |
: They *can*. The division just isn’t good
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12:17 |
: Do you think he starts again? Thx!
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12:17 |
: Wait, Rodon?
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12:18 |
: He’s starting today, no?
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12:18 |
: Which should leave him with a second start
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12:18 |
: Oh no, there isn’t a very recent injury I’m not aware of yet, is there?
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12:19 |
: I was up goofing around on ZiPS too late and didn’t wake up until 10:45
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12:19 |
: any performance justifications for James Click not currently having a contract after this year?
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12:19 |
: Not really, no
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12:19 |
: Jim Crane’s call. Word has been he’s demanding
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12:19 |
How do you think it’d work? Something like swapping in RE24 for RBat and doing a similar adjustment for SB? Maybe something like OpenWAR? What do you think? IIRC, BaseballGauge used to have a customizable WAR engine that could get kinda close to this? |
12:19 |
: While someone may do something like this, I’m not sure that it will be *here*
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12:19 |
: There comes a point at which the increased confusion isn’t worth the gains of having another WAR around that does something else.
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12:20 |
: That’s why the ZiPS WAR (zWAR) is only really used for the projections on my end
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12:20 |
: How do you see the NYM-ATL series playing out? Who wins the series and who wins the division?
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12:20 |
: The Mets fate is *very* Scherzer/deGrom health dependent.
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12:20 |
: With a somewhat sunny optimism about them, ZiPS like the Mets more than any team in baseball right now.
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12:21 |
: But they drop way down without them.
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12:21 |
: Has anyone ever done an indepth look at the difference Yadi makes in a pitcher. Thinking specifically of Monty this season, but I would imagine that his career has been long enough that looking at pitchers pitching to him vs other catchers would be interesting.
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12:21 |
: Not that I’m aware of, but that doesn’t mean it hasn’t been done
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12:22 |
: Do you think Danny jansen breakout for real?
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12:23 |
: The power at least should stick as it’s hard to fake that. The Jays have an interesting conundrum at catcher because Kirk and Jansen are very different player, and it may not make sense from a resource standpoint to keep employing both of them. And Gabriel Moreno makes it even more complicated
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12:24 |
: If Justin Verlander doesn’t exercise his player option for 2023, what kind of contract do you think he gets after his remarkable TJ comeback season?
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12:24 |
: ZiPS says 2/48 for him. I can imagine him agreeing with the Astros on 2/55 or 2/60 or something
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12:25 |
: How much sym could a Symborski borski if a Symborski could borski sym?
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12:25 |
: I don’t know; my expertise is in szymming.
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12:25 |
: Is Hayden Wesneski starting for the Cubs next year?
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12:25 |
: I think it’s very likely
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12:26 |
: Odds Gunnar is better than Witt, Jr. over the course of his career?
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12:27 |
: Sorry, was checking this out. About 60%.
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12:27 |
: When you’re creating simulations and allocating IP, how do you value the additional inning that a starter can save the bullpen? Most bullpen arms are better than starter arms at a rate basis, which would make it seem like the “optimal” gameplan would be to throw your start for 2-3 innings and let the bullpen take over, but there’s clearly some amount of value added from a worse (starter) arm throwing some additional innings.
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12:27 |
: It’s generally done with depth charts. ZiPS has to “fill in” the depth charts and it doesn’t just backfill the same innings to whoever’s hanging out
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12:27 |
: The good thing is that the variance between pitcher outing length isn’t really that high
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12:27 |
: *everyone* basically throws less now
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12:28 |
: Early 2023 AL east predictions? Seems all over the place / any team has a legit shot…
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12:28 |
: Chaos!
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12:29 |
: also just as importantly (and hopefully okay for chat?): who should be the one to dethrone Roman Reigns?
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12:29 |
: Gunther!
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12:31 |
: Id’ really be happy if the world belts and the tag belts stayed unified
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12:31 |
: I think having two top-end awards for each is kinda dumb. I think the WWE title storylines should be cross-show
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12:31 |
: quick, give me your major award picks for this season
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12:32 |
: AL: Rodriguez by a hair, Judge, Verlander, Hyde
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12:33 |
: NL: No comment, Arenado, not sure yet who I’d take between Alcantara/Rodon/Nola, Roberts
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12:34 |
: (I’m an NL ROY and we agree to not say our vote)
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12:34 |
: What should my top three priorities be this offseason assuming we re-ink Swanson.
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12:34 |
: I’d love to see them add another pitcher. Most of the moves the Braves need to make are likely low key ones
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12:34 |
: what’s for lunch today, Dan?
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12:35 |
: I had some honey-vanilla yogurt, a couple mini-krackles, and a glass of milk
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12:35 |
: Which playoff bound team is most likely to turn into a (metaphorical) pumpkin next year?
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12:35 |
: Honestly, I’m not sure any are likely.
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12:36 |
: The team projections didn’t turn horribly wrong except for the O’s
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12:36 |
: I do think the Cards have some long-term pitching questions they need to answer
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12:37 |
: but even a pumpkin makes you royalty i nthe NL Central
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12:37 |
: Are you able to tell which player most dramatically shifted their longer term forecast based on this year? Let’s call longer term 3+ year
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12:37 |
: I can of course! If there’s interest, after the projections run this year, I can run a piece about the biggest diffs in long-term outlook from the year before
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12:37 |
: Can the Brewers keep competing next year with their elite pitching staff? Or is it time for a mini rebuild (maybe trading one of their starters)? They never seem to have the bats…
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12:37 |
: I think they *can* if they do a bit better job investing in offense
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12:37 |
: I don’t think they’re deep enough that they can keep winging it
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12:38 |
: How many would have to be eliminated so that *I* can become the best baseball player.
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12:38 |
: Well, I don’t know how your baseball skills are relative to mine
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12:38 |
: Since my teenage years, it’s my defense that’s likely declined the most
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12:38 |
: I peaked in travel little league lol
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12:39 |
: My fastball is probably worse now, but I never could regularly throw over 70, so it’s not like it was good
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12:39 |
: Ever play Final Fantasy 5? I wish more of the final fantasy series had the job system
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12:39 |
: I’ve played all of them of course!
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12:39 |
: Just had a playthrough recently when the pixel remaster came out
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12:40 |
: I played it in the 90s in that fan translation for SNES emulator
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12:42 |
: Still have some work to do
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12:42 |
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12:42 |
: NYY first 104 games, .673 winning %, next 29 .310, last 22 .773: Are we underrating NYY going into October ?
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12:42 |
: Some are!
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12:43 |
: it’s weird how quickly people went from overrating them to underrating them
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12:43 |
: RECENCY BIAS YIKES!!!1111oneoneone
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12:43 |
: Thoughts on how people will look back on Judge’s season? The anti-steroids crowd seems to still look at Maris, does that now change to Judge? Just seeing news reporting on it there definitely is a lot of weasel sentences coming from MLB such as “most homeruns in a single season… for the american league).
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12:43 |
: I hope there’s some perspective over time
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12:44 |
: Judge has had a wonderful season, one of the greatest offensive seasons ever by a player, in a year in which offense is down, and he’s even played respectable CF to boot on top of it
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12:44 |
: He doesn’t *need* people to find loopholes to lawyer him into being the HR king. It *cheapens* his accomplishments when people do that, IMO
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12:45 |
: Assuming that Jim Crane pays Verlander, what is the Astros 2023 rotation?
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12:45 |
: I think it will look a lot like this years
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12:46 |
: What happened to Mitch White? He was good in Dodger blue and has been quite bad in Blue Jay blue.
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12:46 |
: There’s some misfortune in there too!
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12:46 |
: Do you see byran reynolds getting traded this off-season?
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12:47 |
: I think *next* deadline/offseason far more likely
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12:47 |
: Ian Happ brought up a very good point on his podcast last week. How is the defensive component of WAR calculated for players 70, 80, 90 plus years ago? Can we really say with any precision what Rogers Hornsby’s value in the field was?
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12:47 |
: We can’t, and we will never be able to
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12:48 |
: And we compensate that by some fairly low magnitudes
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12:49 |
: Or at least conservatism
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12:49 |
: Maybe you’ve mentioned it before, and sorry if I missed it, but do you incorporate hawkeye data or any sort of batted ball data into ZIPs projections for minor leaguers?
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12:49 |
: Where I have it — more than is available to public — less than teams — ZiPS uses it when establishing a baseline
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12:50 |
: I’ve set up ZiPS to calculate things differently depending on what data are available
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12:50 |
: Which player (who stayed mostly healthy) most absurdly underperformed his ZiPS this year?
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12:50 |
: Hmm
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12:53 |
: Does Grandal account? He’s been injured, but lousy when healthy
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12:53 |
: He’s the biggest hitter underperformer
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12:53 |
: 4.6 vs. -0.4
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12:53 |
: of healthy players, Juan Soto’s there
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12:54 |
: then India missed time
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12:54 |
: so did Meadows
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12:54 |
: Then you get Torkelson
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12:54 |
: Franmil Reyes
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12:54 |
: Lowe was injured
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12:54 |
: thten Candelario and Gallo
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12:56 |
: Pitchers
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12:56 |
: Buehler and E-Rod have missed time
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12:56 |
: Eovaldi
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12:56 |
: Giolito
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12:56 |
: Cole
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12:56 |
: Kikuchi
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12:56 |
: Marquez
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12:56 |
: Flaherty and Stras injured
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12:57 |
: Berrios next healthy looks like
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12:57 |
: Do the Mariners have a reasonable chance to win the division next year?
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12:57 |
: Yes
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12:57 |
: I didn’t know this was an O’s chat (sweet!). Call me crazy, but I see the Orioles dealing Santander for a pitcher in the offseason (looking at you Marlins). Then going in and signing Rodon, and signing whichever shortstop is last to sign and runs out of suitors (Swanson, Correa, Bogaerts, etc.) to a short term contract (like Correa’s with MIN). Go into next year with Rodon, whoever they traded Santander for, Gray Rod, Bradish and Means. Then you have the other 4/5ths of this years rotation as fill in’s when need be. I also see them addressing LF, possibly signing a RH batter to complement Stowers and using him in a platoon role.
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12:57 |
: Have the Dodgers really “underperformed” in the postseason over Dave Roberts’ tenure? They’ve won one out of 6 WS, which is probably a little better than the expected value even if they were the best team in the league each year.
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12:57 |
: Not really, no
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12:57 |
: I feel like the resolution of this story has a pretty big impact on standing projections
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12:57 |
: Wait, what?
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12:58 |
: It this is the last chat of the year, thanks for doing these. Chili talk and Rockies jokes always brighten the day.
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12:58 |
: I mean, it’s the last chat of the regular season
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12:58 |
: and last SzymChat for awhile as there will be playoff chats
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12:58 |
: How do I fix this mess?
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12:58 |
: Need better ownership more willing to invest in team. So you probably don’t, unfortunately
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12:59 |
: What is your level of excitement for BOTW2/Tears of the Kingdom? Only worry is exploration. One of the great joys of BOTW is wandering around and finding new things. If they’re reusing most of the original map that’s gone.
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12:59 |
: Certainly quite interested!
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1:00 |
: Though I’ve never been as hardcore a Zelda fan as some because I didn’t have a Nintendo console between N64 and Switch
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1:00 |
: How much do you value results vs expected stats for awards?
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1:00 |
: It depends
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1:00 |
: What percentile is this years O’s season on the ZiPS scale? gotta be over 90% right?
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1:00 |
: Way up there
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1:00 |
: It’s in high high 90s category
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1:01 |
: at the time of the trade, Matt Olson = Freeman. Given the bad year/good year, how do the next few play out per zips?
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1:01 |
: Last I checked, Freeman’s slight edge now. Age is working against him
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1:01 |
: I’m in a newish relationship. We’re traveling in October to participate in a chili cook-off. It’s pretty serious. She’s insisting on beans. Is this a hill with dying on as I’m refusing?
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1:01 |
: I’m not sure you want to ask me for relationship advice
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1:02 |
: My college recently had Cincinnati chili during the lunch hour, that night at dinner I told my friends I had a craving for chili and they innocently told me about the said chili and I informed them that that is in fact not chili. Thank you for enlightening the world.
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1:04 |
: Were those 3 balk calls nuts, or what? Bleier was set on all 3 pitches according to my eyeballs.
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1:04 |
: I was really confused by the whole thing
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1:04 |
: That’s as set as pitchers really get
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1:04 |
: Also I don’t think it gets brought up enough that in FF4 they’re just like Hey Cecil u r from the moon u r a moon baby
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1:04 |
: Dan, you planning on grabbing a 40 series card?
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1:05 |
: Honestly, I don’t have any need to
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1:05 |
: My 2080 Super was still meeting my needs when the RTX 3080 came out, but I got the 3080 for retail ($730 plus tax) and I could sell my 2080 Super for $600 at the time, so it made sense to do that
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1:06 |
: But I play at 1440p. The 3080 doesn’t sweat any of that. And if I get a 40 series card, I’m going to have to replace my PSU aswell and that’s a hassle
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1:06 |
: (I never *ever* use an adapter)
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1:07 |
: Can we really say with any precision what anybody’s value in the field is today? The 3 major defensive metrics constantly disagree with each other, so the error bars on true defensive skill have to be huge
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1:07 |
: With precision? No
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1:07 |
: But we have a better idea how Rougned Odor plays second than Rogers Hornsby
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1:07 |
: Are the Phillies choking, or is their poor play just random variance?
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1:07 |
: I think it’ sjust the normal ups and downs
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1:08 |
: I’m not a big believer in the whole choking thing at the MLB level
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1:08 |
: Let’s say the Cubs go get Rodon and Correa. Where do you think that puts them in the NL Central?
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1:08 |
: I think it’s makes them serious contenders
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1:08 |
: With 3 major defensive metrics (OAA, UZR, DRS), which version is ZiPS actually trying to project?
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1:08 |
: Some mystery truth that ends up somewhere in the middle!
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1:08 |
: Congrats on your last chat of the year, but I understand that your planet needs you. Please do not die on the way back to your home planet.
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1:08 |
: OH NO IM FANGRAPHS POOCHIE
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1:09 |
: Queen or Rush?
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1:09 |
: I tell myself I slightly prefer Rush, but I probably listen to more Queen than Rush
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1:10 |
: Though these days I’m mostly nerdy indie pop/indie folk stuff. I’ve become a music hipster by accident
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1:10 |
: At least with popular music
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1:10 |
: When will my friend Jim stop rooting for the Angels?
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1:10 |
: GODDAMIT JIM STOP ENABLING THEM
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1:10 |
: On that note, it’s time for me to head out for another week.
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1:10 |
: Thanks for coming everyone!
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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
The 3 balks on Bleier were ticky-tacks BS calls.
Having said that, I don’t think he made a complete, discernable stop on any of the 3 pitches. In my view, he was only almost stopped and was “drifting” a little on each one.
I appreciated how Mattingly’s reaction when he came out of the dugout after the 3rd one was literally “WTF?” Except, you know, he used the actual words…
I hope you don’t drive, for the sake of pedestrians everywhere, because your eyes don’t work correctly.