Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/12/11

Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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  1. JCA says:

    Dan – is there something off about the playoff probabilities projected by Baseball Prospectus and Coolstandings? If these projections are based off of some sort of season-long pythagorean-derived estimate of team strength, would they miss out on teams that radically change their rosters? For example, a projection based on Red Sox season long stats might assume a rotation with Beckett as well as a hybrid of Buchholz and Bedard contributing to run prevention instead of Miller and Weiland, while a projection of the Rays might assume Fuld in left rather than Jennings. Projections as late as last week having the Red Sox at 99+% probability seemed strange at the time.

    • Jon says:

      not sure of the answer but i can see why the rating is so high

      if the red sox go 8-7 over their next 15 games the ray will have to go 12-4 over their next 16

      which include 7 games vs the yankees