Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 12/10/14

Dave Cameron: It’s a busy Wednesday, so let’s talk Chicago pitching upgrades, or Boston non-pitching upgrades, or other things.

Dave Cameron: Also, I think I got rid of the big terrible cover photo, so feedback on how the CIL format is working this week is appreciated.

Comment From Houzer
Okay really … how much better would the Tigers be by swapping Porcello with Shields? Can you quantify in wins?

Dave Cameron: Porcello and Shields are both probably ~3 WAR starters next year, so that would essentially be a push, and the upgrade would come from whatever they got for Porcello. If it was Porcello for Cespedes, you’re probably looking at a roughly two win upgrade in the outfield. Given the cost of signing Shields, not sure that’s worth it.

Comment From Houzer
What could the Tigers fetch for a RF’er for Price?

Dave Cameron: Probably not as much as you might think. Not a lot of teams out there looking to take on $20 million in salary, and you saw what one year of Samardzija just brought back.

Comment From Ryan
It seems as though Boston either took Lester for granted or didn’t really care to keep him based on their actions over the last 10 months. Can you make some sense of all of this?

Dave Cameron: I don’t really get Boston’s take on this, to be honest. If they were going to max out at $135 million, why bother with all the posturing. That was never going to be that close to the best offer, and the idea of him giving them a big discount went away with their absurd offer from spring training.

Comment From L. Scott
Lester essentially replaces Samardzja, the rest of the Cub rotation is eh. Their offense is eh. I just don’t see this team being very good yet, agree?

Dave Cameron: Not at all. Post on this coming this afternoon.

Comment From Eric
Now that Lester’s off the board, can you better gauge what Shields will get? Sullivan said 4/$70MM is what he eventually gets.

Dave Cameron: I guessed 4/$80M before the offseason began, and think the Lester deal probably helps him a little. So maybe 5/$90?

Comment From Leo
Lester is off the board… best guess as to where Scherzer lands?

Dave Cameron: Yankees.

Comment From Houzer
What would be your thoughts on the Tigers offering Scherzer 60M over 2, with a player option on a 3rd year?

Dave Cameron: Zero reason for Scherzer to take that.

Comment From PR
if you had Scherzer at $170mm as one of the worst potential FA signings, isnt Lester at 155 just as bad if not worse?

Dave Cameron: Almost everything has cost more this winter than I thought it would.

Comment From SadinBoston
Dave what do you think the Red Sox do next?

Dave Cameron: Shields/McCarthy make sense as free agent targets. Miley seems like a good buy-low guy that they’re kicking the tires on. I think they’d love to get Jordan Zimermamnn, but not sure they match up with WAS that well.

Comment From STiVo
The thought has been that once Lester signed, the free agent pitcher floodgates would open. Is that still the impression, i.e., are several going to sign soon?

Dave Cameron: I think the trade market has been held up more than the FA market. Hamels/Zimmermann/Reds guys all needed Lester to sign first.

Comment From Bat
Hi Dave. I just learned from fellow FanGraphs commenters Bill, HoJo, and Rod, that you can’t extend a QO to a player traded midseason – I had no idea. What was the rationale behind this CBA between management and the MLBPA?

Dave Cameron: Don’t want to compensate a team for losing a player they only had for a few months.

Comment From Julian
Is there a reason we don’t see rebuilding teams trade good players but eat all their contracts? I know they won’t do this, but the Phillies won’t need $20mil the next 4 years but could use a ton of prospects, so why not trade Hamels and eat the contract? If Moncada is being valued at around $80mil, and Hamels’ contract is even more that, what could they get back in closer to Major League talent? Seems like an effective way to speed up a rebuild.

Dave Cameron: I think we’ll see a team try something like that in the not too distant future, probably on a smaller scale. Maybe the Astros try it with Gregerson or Neshek.

Comment From Rob
What would you like to see the White Sox do next? Would signing Rasmus for LF and perhaps Brett Anderson make sense? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: Yeah, both would be decent moves.

Comment From Your Display Name
The consensus seems that the cubs still need another arm – should they sign a 2nd tier guy now or wait until next years free agent class?

Dave Cameron: I think their rotation is fine. They need an outfielder or two.

Comment From Vic Romano
You know the details behind this $30M signing bonus for Lester that’s supposedly in addition to the $155M? That seems rather hefty.

Dave Cameron: Not in addition to. It’s just a way of spreading out the payments for luxury tax calculation purposes.

Comment From RJ
Are the Giants stumbling backwards into a decent free agent strategy by missing out on all these high-priced, long-term contracts? The remaining targets are probably not so much worse in the short-term and unlikely to be Zito-esque in the long-term.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if they “settle” for Headley/McCarthy instead of Sandoval/Lester, they’ll be just fine.

Comment From Matt
What are the odds that Semien has a better big-league career than Addison Russell?

Dave Cameron: 35%.

Comment From JayT
Do you think Cole Hamels’ stock has gone up at all with the Lester signing, or stayed the same?

Dave Cameron: Unchanged. If Boston thinks Lester’s max worth is $135M, and they preferred Lester to Hamels, why would they think that Hamels at $110M was insanely valuable?

Dave Cameron: He’s worth between $25 and $50 million in surplus value, depending on how aggressive you want to be with his projection. That’s worth several solid young pieces, but not anything like the kind of package they reportedly want.

Comment From Ozzie
The White Sox are probably a 0.500 team as of now, no?

Dave Cameron: A little worse than that, I’d guess.

Comment From Dan
I’m a Reds fan, but I feel like the front office has hamstrung this team for the foreseeable future with bloated, unmovable contracts. Is there any hope or should I just become an A’s fan?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think your future is particularly bright. Sorry.

Comment From Mike, of Mike and the Mechanics Fame
Do you think the Cubs’ signing of Lester has any impact on the timing of the call-up of Kris Bryant? In other words, if they’re in win-now mode, should they be less worried about the timing of Bryant’s final year of team control?

Dave Cameron: It takes ~3 weeks to get the extra year of control. Three weeks isn’t going to change anything.

Comment From mtsw
Do the Pirates get left behind in the NL Central as the Cubs-Cards arms race heats up?

Dave Cameron: I think they’re still in the mix this year. Next year will depend on whether Polanco takes a big step forward and the young arms develop.

Comment From Dewey
Aoki a better option for the M’s than their silly RH hitting obsession?

Dave Cameron: Yes, but if you’re going to sign Aoki, might as well just let Miller play the Zobrist role and put up a similar performance between RF/SS instead.

Comment From mlstarr
Do think the Cubs reported willingness to shop Castillo right after acquiring Montero even though the two form what looks like a valuable platoon tells us anything about how they value defense/framing, or is it mostly a money/value move?

Dave Cameron: I think they want to sign David Ross, so Castillo is in the way.

Comment From BarbarianKing
Cubs possibly still in on Shields/Max/Hamels?

Dave Cameron: No reason to think so. Hendricks/Wada/Wood/Jackson is a reasonable group for #4/#5 starters.

Comment From Guest
As a Sox fan, I feel like we gave up a lot for one year of Samardzija. Although we will recoup some value with the QO after the season, it just seems like that was a lot to give up for one year of a #2

Dave Cameron: It’s one pretty cheap year, though. The $10 million salary adds value, because it means that there’s enough budget room left to keep adding pieces.

Comment From Ryan
Shields, Buchholz, McCarthy/Porcello, Miley, Kelly… that is a good enough rotation to keep the Red Sox in the thick of things until the trade deadline, at least, yes?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Lark11
If the Reds decide to take advantage of Boston missing out on Lester by offering up Johnny Cueto, what type of return could they reasonably expect?

Dave Cameron: Cueto’s a bit better than Samardzija, so a bit better package than what OAK just got. Cespedes and a couple of young arms, maybe.

Comment From Ringtone Composer
What do you think is the likelihood of Baez being a complete bust?

Dave Cameron: ~60%.

Comment From Any guess as to why Steamer is so down on Mat Latos for 2015?
Obligatory-what-do-you-see-Boston-doing-now question.

Dave Cameron: Trades were always more likely there, I think. They have too many bats and not enough arms. Cespedes gets them one decent mid-rotation starter, probably. Maybe he goes to Arizona in a Miley deal, since the D’Backs seem to love RH power and are talking about trying Tomas at third.

Comment From Any guess as to why Steamer is so down on Mat Latos for 2015?
Any guess as to why Steamer is so down on Mat Latos for 2015?

Dave Cameron: His velocity and K% tanked last year, and are big red flags.

Comment From Jack
This Lester deal doesn’t sound particularly good for the Nats trying to lock up Zimmermann…I think Zimmermann is a safer bet that either Scherzer or Lester..but I;d be damned if I pay that price.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t think the Nats are going to be able to keep Zimmermann.

Comment From Nivra
We know the Giants were ready to spend around $160-170M on Lester. If you were Sabean, what would you do with that money now?

Dave Cameron: Chase Headley and a pitcher.

Comment From David
Did Cole Hamels steal your puppy when you were a child?

Dave Cameron: Phillies fans continue to result to insults/mocking in response to evidence that Hamels isn’t worth what they think he is. Maybe try to form a cogent counterargument instead?

Comment From Bridgeport Joe
OK, I’m having this argument in one of the comment threads. How many wins is the White Sox bullpen upgrade worth? Looking at WAR, it’s only a couple. Looking at WPA or even just save conversion rate, it looks to be around six.

Dave Cameron: It’s not anywhere close to 6.

Comment From TB
Heard you talking defensive metrics on the most recent podcast. Do teams have access to FieldFX data now? If so, will we end up in a spot where we assume they have access to better data than MGL, et al do in creating UZR, DRS, etc.? Every team has some analytics person now, right? So if a club says “actually, Markakis *is* a good defensive RF (bad example, but bear with me), at what point do we concede that they have better data than we do and give them benefit of the doubt?

Dave Cameron: FIELDF/x doesn’t exist.

Dave Cameron: It was a concept that never got implemented. StatCast is the future of player tracking data, and MLB is talking about opening it up to everyone. MLB teams will always have better data/better analysts than the public, but the gap is smaller than people assume.

Comment From Friedman
Why haven’t I traded for Welington Castillo yet?

Dave Cameron: You like framing. Castillo sucks at it.

Comment From brian
It seems that every free agent contract feels way too expensive. Is this a fault in my perception, or has free agent spending inflated faster than is reasonable? Seeing a lot of money for ~2 win ballplayers. Back when Jason Vargas signed his contract, it seemed odd to commit multiple years for a league average guy. That same contract this offseason would look like a bargain.

Dave Cameron: You’re probably not accounting for how much money is available in baseball right now.

Dave Cameron: If you think every contract is too much, your baseline is too low.

Comment From gump
boston offered 4/70 in the spring, when most projection systems had him at 3.5-4 win. isn’t that like a reasonable offer if he doesn’t go off and have a 6 win season? I feel like if he did was he was projected to do (basically james shields) no one would be calling it a lowball

Dave Cameron: Szymborski projected Lester for 6/$145M in March.

Dave Cameron: The 4/$70 offer wasn’t a good one.

Comment From Ryan
Fwiw your answers don’t seem to be syncing up with the questions

Dave Cameron: Argh. Sorry about this, folks. If we could make CIL better, we would. We’re exploring alternatives.

Comment From paul
what has been the worst move in the offseason so far?

Dave Cameron: Markakis signing, though the Padres threatening to trade for Kemp will challenge that.

Comment From Guest
Why the higher cost/win this offseason in particular?

Dave Cameron: Baseball revenues are going up. Therefore, player salaries also go up. Inflation is just a fact of life in a strong economy, and MLB’s is very strong.

Comment From blargh
Hey Dave, have you (or someone else) ever looked at what big, ugly contracts do to the market when they’re given to players who probably don’t deserve them? For example, Josh Hamilton is clearly not worth his contract, but wouldn’t it give comparable players pause when considering what kind of deal they’re looking for? I suppose another way of thinking about it is whether or not these contracts measurably lend themselves to market inflation.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, those deals still inform the market. For instance, every 5+ service time pitcher is pointing to the Homer Bailey contract as the baseline now, even though that was a bad deal for Cincinnati. That contract basically nuked the Nationals chances to sign Zimmermann.

Comment From Daryl
Does the Lester deal make the Reds fold? Would it be best for them to cash in their trade pieces? Now that some guys are off the market the Reds pieces may seem even more attractive, including Chapman.

Dave Cameron: I think they should have been sellers before, and I really think they should be sellers now.

Comment From OttoneuTrades
I completely agree with your recent sentiment that fans are probably overvaluing the trade value of top talent (Donaldson, Samardzja, Price, etc.) However, where would be the break even point for you between doing one of these deals and holding? (The Samarzja trade for example.) I understand that there are factors in play that are team dependent, but would you specifically feel comfortable pulling either of these trades if you were the A’s? Or do you think this is more of a case of the overall return being fine, but you may have wanted different players specifically?

Dave Cameron: I think, from the A’s perspective, young/cheap is always going to be more valuable to them than old/expensive. Every deal they’ve made this winter has been about getting younger. They need assets who appreciate, not depreciate, and Lawrie has more upside left than Donaldson, Butler/Davis than Moss, and Semien more than Samardzija via extra control.

Comment From mtsw
What are the Padres thinking with the rumored Matt Kemp trade? How much of Kemp’s salary would the Dodgers need to eat for this to make sense for San Diego?

Dave Cameron: I have no idea what the Padres are thinking.

Dave Cameron: And it’s unlikely that LAD will eat enough to make it worth it.

Comment From cs3
Why does it seem like the FA pitching market has hinged on Lester, rather than Scherzer? Do most MLB front offices view Lester as the more valuable commodity? I haven’t even heard of any rumors of a Scherzer signing yet, and Lester rumors were flying all over the place for weeks.

Dave Cameron: Scherzer has priced himself out of most team’s budgets. There’s only going to be a few bidders there. Lester was cheap enough to tempt more teams and thus create a bigger logjam.

Comment From Guest
Why sign someone to three years if you’re looking to flip them?

Dave Cameron: Because no good players take one year deals anymore.

Comment From Art Vandelay
Lester’s bonus is $20M up front and $10M over the length of the contract per MLBTR.

Dave Cameron: How it’s paid doesn’t matter. Signing bonuses are amortized over the life of the deal under the luxury tax calculations.

Comment From Washington Irving
Thoughts on the Gregerson contract?

Dave Cameron: A little richer than I would have gone, but potentially reasonable if they pay it down this summer to buy a prospect.

Comment From Harry Hardahn
Oh good god, and if you scroll up to read what wouldn’t fit on the screen, then scroll back down, the scroll bar DOES NOT WORK PROPERLY. Instead of actually having the text at the bottom waiting for you, you scroll back down and it automatically, THEN, rams it all at the bottom, so you have to scroll back up again to read what it just spammed by you because it sucks, rinse, repeat.. for the love of god if you can use what you were sing this season, go back to it. Making people use this garbage is against the Geneva Convention

Comment From THE average sports fan
CIL 100% better with scrolling like this and the elimination of the stupid picture.

Dave Cameron: We seem to have conflicting opinions.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
The other day I asked you why the Cubs seem to prefer Lester over Scherzer and your response was “He costs less.” At 7/170 (I know I’m assuming vesting of the option but Lester’s issue has never been durability just performance), Lester may not cost less by much. Why don’t you think the Cubs seriously engaged Scherzer simultaneously with Lester, and why would they prefer Lester over Scherzer? Scherzer seems like the unambiguously superior pitcher

Dave Cameron: You can’t assume the option vests. The contract is 6/155. Scherzer is asking for $200M+. He’s going to get a lot more than Lester did.

Comment From Dave
Hey Dave. Love the chat. Don’t know if you have time for a non baseball Q…have a good job offer to move to the Raleigh area from Denver, how is the area for a late 20s single guy? Good neighborhoods for the young professional life style? Love to go out on the town but not a clubbing person. Thanks for your consideration!

Dave Cameron: The areas around UNC/Duke are probably perfect for you. Durham is really making a big comeback. If you can deal with the humidity, you’ll love it.

Dave Cameron: And, uh, I hope you don’t like skiing, because the skiing out here is awful.

Comment From mtsw
Given the sellers’ market for SS this offseason, does JJ Hardy regret agreeing to an extension before going to free agency?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. He’s on the wrong side of 30, is regressing offensively, and landed a pretty decent paycheck anyway. Maybe he gets a few million more or one extra year, but he didn’t leave that much on the table.

Comment From nik
Isn’t Lester’s deal really $165 mil since he has a $10 million vesting option buyout?

Dave Cameron: That’s included in the $155M guarantee. So it will be either 6/$155 or $7/$170. The marginal cost of the 7th year is $15 million.

Comment From hscer
big Nats move still to come, or them actually seeing what Espinosa can do right-on-right like the fans wanted all we’re going to get

Dave Cameron: They’ll find a second baseman.

Comment From Bridgeport Joe
White Sox were at 71 pythagorean wins last year. Swapping Rienzo/Carroll (-2 WAR) for Samardzija (+4 WAR) gets you to 77 wins. Swapping Konerko/Dunn (-1 WAR) for LaRoche (+2 WAR) gets you to 80 wins. Then you have the bullpen improvement — and the Sox had a truly terrible pen last year. Even conservatively estimating the improvement (i.e., assuming an average bullpen and using WAR and not WPA), you’re looking at an 82-83 win team. And that’s before you get (hopefully) a full season from Sale, find a replacement-or-better LFer, see Garcia develop, etc.

Dave Cameron: Sorry, that’s not how this works.

Comment From mtsw
Cespedes for Bud Norris make sense for both sides?

Dave Cameron: Bud Norris isn’t worth Cespedes.

Comment From Pistol
you are putting yourself out there re: Hamels yield. I do hope you’ll be prepared for the backlash if it doesn’t turn out as you’ve mapped out.

Dave Cameron: My job is to have opinions and have thick skin when people tell me my opinions are stupid. I’m used to it.

Comment From U.G. Wilcox
WAS not a match for Boston? Mookie Betts makes a lot of sense in DC. By simply waiting it out, do you think this door has opened for Rizzo?

Dave Cameron: Boston doesn’t want to trade Betts.

Comment From Ringtone Composer
Any idea why Clubhouse Confidential is no longer a thing?

Dave Cameron: I would imagine it didn’t do well enough in the ratings.

Comment From Washington Irving
Okay, so given how little good players have cost in trades this offseason, what can the Nats expect to get back for Tyler Clippard?

Dave Cameron: Not a lot.

Comment From _David_
What do you think of umpires’ argument that they should get a piece of increasing revenues?

Dave Cameron: They’re not wrong.

Comment From Bat
Dave, as you seemed to indicate above, the Red Sox seriously misfired by offering four years / $70 million in spring training only for Lester to sign after the season for $80 to $100 million more than that (depending on whether the option vests). Does Henry hold Cherington responsible for this? Meaning: not like he is fired or anything, but it has to be something of a relatively big strike in the “Negative” column when evaluating the GM’s performance over a given period of time?

Dave Cameron: While I don’t think they handled the Lester thing that well from a PR perspective, I also don’t think this is any big blunder. They turned a half season of Lester into Cespedes, who can probably get them another year of a decent starter at a lower cost, and they used the salary differences to bring in better offensive talent. They’ll be fine.

Comment From Forsyth
If the Phillies use Lester’s contract in negotiating a deal for Hamels (saying Hamels is well underpaid for the market), and ask for, say, Betts in return, how much could the Red Sox conceivably say Betts would get on the open market if he was a FA today?

Dave Cameron: Well, Rusney Castillo got 6/$72M as a lesser version of the same skillset, and with more risk involved. I think Betts’ open market value on a six year deal is pushing $100 million.

Comment From Guest
I realize inflation happens, but this year appears to be growing at a higher rate than usual — hence my question.

Dave Cameron: Speculative theory: there’s a fight coming in the next CBA negotiations, as players are going to demand a larger share of the increased revenue pie. There’s some incentives for teams to proactively make their cut higher in advance of the fight so players don’t go in quite so angry.

Comment From Dylan
Cespedes for Homer Bailey: Who says no?

Dave Cameron: The Red Sox wouldn’t take Bailey’s contract for nothing, much less kick in value.

Comment From Dave
With baseball revenues topping 9 billion this year, are there really any bad contracts? Sure teams have budgets in place, but they seem to be more owner mandated, than market mandated. It seems nearly every team can afford to pay players more, they just don’t want to hurt profits, pay down debt, or avoid the luxury tax.

Dave Cameron: The fact that teams can afford whatever they want doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t spend your money as efficiently as possible.

Comment From Slew(Seattle)
I’ve read several times over the last few days that prices are much higher at the deadline than in the offseason. If this is true, why not keep Samardjia, capture half a season’s value of play at below market prices, and then sell him at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Because of the non-zero chance that he sucks/gets injured before July and tanks his own value. If you hold for July, you potentially get more in return, but you have to absorb the risk of getting nothing if the player’s value drops in between now and then.

Comment From Guest
What’s the worst job done by an agent in recent memory? Setting aside the poor QO refusals from last offseason.

Dave Cameron: Ervin Santana’s agent really screwed up last winter.

Dave Cameron: Matt Harrington’s agent screwed up the most ever, probably.

Comment From Brian
Have the trades from this offseason changed your perspective on last year’s Doug Fister trade? At the time everyone hated the deal from the Tiers standpoint. Is it possible, as pointed out in your article last week, that the return for big name players just isnt that high anymore?

Dave Cameron: Fister’s trade value is definitely not as high as his performance would suggest. Tigers should have just kept him, though.

Comment From Hans
Why are your opinions and analysis pretty much always off-base? You honestly ruin the credibility of this site when you write your opinion down.

Dave Cameron: Examples of me being off base provided: 0

Comment From Eric
“FIELDF/x doesn’t exist.” — that’s false. I interned for a Major League team and worked with FIELDf/x data. It was never implemented in all 30 ballparks, but the data definitely exists.

Dave Cameron: Yes, 3 stadiums had FIELDF/x cameras and captured some data. It was never turned into any kind of comprehensive data set and what was captured had limited utility.

Comment From Nate
Samardzija approach $150 million next season if he posts a 3-4 WAR season?

Dave Cameron: A little less. I’d see him in the $125M range.

Comment From rez
I had never heard that Harrington story before. Yeesh. That seems like it should be impossible.

Dave Cameron: It was just an insane debacle.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to write up a piece on the Cubs chances at contending in 2015.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out, everyone.