Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 12/14/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Today’s chat might be a little interesting, as I’m also in charge of keeping my son alive until my wife gets back from a work thing she had to do this morning.

Dave Cameron: So we’ll see how this goes…

Ronnie: Musgrave and Hernandez for Duffy? Who says no?

Dave Cameron: Well, considering it would be six years of Musgrove for one year of Duffy, and it’s not entirely clear that Duffy is even significantly better for 2017, that would be a disaster for the Astros.

Astrid: VV’s future is as a starter or reliever?

Dave Cameron: Reliever.

Ed in Iowa: Something I think would be strangely kind of awesome: if Otani decided he wanted to come to MLB next year despite the new CBA and he just signed for whoever he felt like. Every team would be able to offer the same tiny signing bonus and so the winner would have to woo him on their story of why he should sign with them. I mean it’s a crime against competitive balance that one team acquire a super star at (almost) no cost, but somehow this still seems fun to me. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: I’m going to write about Otani soon, but the way the system is setup now, either Otani isn’t coming over, or we’re going to have to deal with years of rumors that the team that signed him gamed the system.

Zonk: Are the Nationals going to regret giving away Espinosa for basically a bag of Angel’s nothing? If he is a “poor man’s Javy Baez” as Sullivan suggested, isn’t that a valuable bench player for a contending team?

Dave Cameron: He’s definitely a nice bench guy, but he doesn’t see himself as a bench guy, and it’s probably not worth having a malcontent around constantly whining about playing time.

Coolie: The Yankees believe that Gary Sanchez is a franchise cornerstone. Do you agree with that sentiment?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Chin Music: Though they spent a lot of money, the Dodgers have made some pretty nice moves this offseason. What do you think the next step for them will be? 2B trade?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, 2B is basically the last thing on the checklist unless they can find a Puig trade.

Q-Ball: Is Welington Castillo likely to receive a larger deal than the modest arb raise he was in line for? If so, why wouldn’t the D-Backs just make a trade to one of the many teams that need a catcher?

Dave Cameron: Whenever players get surprisingly non-tendered, it’s probably best to assume that the team tried to trade him and got no interest. Hazen said as much after the announcement, I believe.

Dave Cameron: Same thing with Tyson Ross.

Dave Cameron: Teams aren’t going to non-tender a guy they could trade for value. If the offers aren’t there, they aren’t there.

MK: Despite the fact that he has 2 more years after this one, if ryan zimmerman struggles again this year, is this the end of being a regular?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t want him as a regular this year.

Erik: With their latest moves, the Dodgers have moved the tiniest hair ahead of the Cubs in FanGraphs’ projected 2017 standings. Would you call the Dodgers the slight favorites, or are the Cubs still the team to beat?

Dave Cameron: I think they’re pretty similar; the Dodgers projection relies a bit more on injured pitchers, though, so they’ve got more downside.

Matt: What would the Jays have to give up in a hypothetical Melky Cabrera trade?

Dave Cameron: Probably just take the contract.

Erik: Does the Chapman signing indicate that the Yankees think they’re ready to be a contender this year? Or are they just rich enough that they can afford to blow that kind of money on a closer in a year when they don’t expect to make the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: The Yankees are a good team. Not in the top tier, but there aren’t that many AL teams with better playoff odds.

Erik: Do you buy the Angels as the wild card team that the projected standings currently has them being?

Dave Cameron: No

Zonk: After years of dithering, the White Sox seem to be running the offseason as you suggested. Are you impressed so far?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, hard to argue with what they’ve done. I think Giolito is a bit overrated, so I don’t think the Eaton deal was the huge steal other people are talking about, but these were good moves.

CarrotJuice: Clearly the Nats had soured on Giolito. To the best of your knowledge, have multiple teams soured on Giolito as well?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Pretty much everyone I talked to at the winter meetings said their internal rankings were much lower on Giolito than the public ones.

Everything’s On Sale!: According to ZIPs on ESPN the Red Sox traded ~26 time independent wins (TIW?) for a ~4 win gain in 2017. I know there’s some kind of discount rate, but wouldn’t you have to think it’s an outrageous number in order to not hate the Sale trade? I’m surprised FG thinks this was only a slight overpay.

Dave Cameron: Well they have Sale for 2017-2019, so comparing all of Moncada’s years with just one of Sale’s years isn’t particularly fair.

Dave Cameron: And there’s a pretty decent chance that Moncada isn’t ready to help a team win for a while, as his contact issue is going to get in the way. He can probably overcome that long-term, but the Byron Buxton path wouldn’t be surprising.

Erik: I know you already disliked the Morales signing, but isn’t it made significantly worse by the fact that Encarnacion’s market seems to be collapsing? Should the Blue Jays have been able to foresee that they might be able to bring him back for cheap, or at least waited to see how things go before signing his replacement?

Dave Cameron: I won’t knock them for not predicting that Encarnacion’s market would dry up, but rushing to sign Morales was silly.

Zonk: If you are the Nationals, what do you do with your bullpen now? Promote Kelly? Sign Ziegler or one of the other 2nd tier closers? Or look to trade?

Dave Cameron: Holland makes a lot of sense there. Enough upside to be worth the risk, and if it doesn’t work, you aren’t locked in forever, and can pivot to pick up someone else mid-season.

Logan Davis: One of the big reasons LAA currently projects better than SEA is that Steamer thinks Trout and Calhoun will replicate their 2016 performances in 2017, but that Seattle’s Segura / Cano / Cruz / Seager core will regress by a collective 9 WAR next season. Or 14 (!) if you use bWAR. Is it just me, or does that regression projection for SEA’s position players seem… aggressive?

Dave Cameron: Old guys get worse fast. The Mariners guys are old (or, in Segura’s case, coming off a career year), while the Angels guys are young.

Chris: Wondering what you think of a Dozier trade to the Dodgers. I’ve heard rumors of DeLeon, Alvarez and one or two lesser pieces. Better for Twins or Dodgers?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t give up that much.

Erik: No division currently projects to be very close, with the Astros’ 5-game lead over the Angels in the AL West being the closest. Can you even remember a season where there were no proper division races? What would be the implication on a trade deadline market if all the divisions appeared to be already wrapped up?

Dave Cameron: Someone will blow out their arm in March and make it closer.

Q-Ball: The D-Backs jettisoned Castillo for Jeff Mathis. This would never have happened 10 years ago. There seems to be little interest in Matt Wieters. Is the value of catcher framing now fully embraced by front offices? It seems that way from player evals, doesn’t it?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t go that far; Mathis still got just $2 million a year. But I do think teams are valuing framing more than agents are, so the expectation gap between Wieters and the teams that would sign him is much larger now.

Dave Cameron: So a team might take Wieters at 1/10, but if he’s asking 4/50, then there’s no deal to be made there.

Minty: How does the switching of the Sox affect your outlook on Moncada?

Dave Cameron: Probably helps him, as the White Sox won’t try to rush him to help a team contend. Plus, more likely he can switch to CF now, which is probably his best long-term position, I think.

Rob: Does Alex Reyes crack the Cardinals rotation this year?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s why they traded Garcia.

Erik: The Phillies seem content to more or less mill about doing nothing this off-season. Is that appropriate for teams at their stage of a rebuild? Or should they have either signed players who will be key contributors in 2018 or moved more major leaguers for prospects?

Dave Cameron: They’ll go bargain shopping in July.

Dave Cameron: Bad teams generally aren’t signing free agents early in the off-season, since they aren’t anyone’s first choice.

Tommy: What books would you recommend for someone relatively new to the kind of analysis at fangraphs?

Dave Cameron: The Book by Tango/Lichtman/Dolphin.

Meh: Dumb question, but is there a payroll floor in MLB? If so, why not a cap as well?

Dave Cameron: There isn’t an official floor. If a team doesn’t spend enough money, the MLBPA can ask the league to yell at the team, which they’ve done with the Marlins before.

Rob: What team do you see as the most likely landing spot for Quintana? Could Pittsburgh be a sleeper considering his contract?

Dave Cameron: Houston makes too much sense.

Charley: Is it smarter for Rick Hahn to hold on to Abreu until July or next off-season considering the glut of hitters available this year?

Dave Cameron: Yep

Big Joe Mufferaw: Are there any doubts that Beltre is a HOFer at this point? What about Beltran?

Dave Cameron: Beltre’s in. Beltran is a bubble guy. I’d vote for him, but he might get Larry Walker’ed.

JA: Why has it been 9 days since the last podcast? I’m dying here

Dave Cameron: We recorded it yesterday. Should go up today.

chuckb: How much sense would it make for the Cards to sign Edwin E if they could sign him for something around 3/$60?

Dave Cameron: I’m still not sold on him as an NL player, but at 3/$60M, it might be worth the risk.

dombrowski’s id: Eduardo Rodriguez for Joey Gallo — who needs to add and how much?

Dave Cameron: TEX needs to add. Gallo’s the hitter version of Giolito; lots of people think his stock tanked in the second half.

_David_: Are we entering an era where GMs won’t be fired very often? If every front office is run by teams of smart people with good philosophies, there will always be a decent enough rationalization for any decision where it’s unlikely there will be a preponderance of bad decisions such that change is justified…Will it just be based a lot on the luck of who among a team’s acquisitions develops and plays well?

Dave Cameron: Someone brought this up in DC; it’s going to be harder for owners to fire this crop of GMs because they’re giving out long-term deals to get these guys, and the title inflation means that everyone is getting paid more. So, yeah, we’re probably going to see less turnover in front offices for a while.

Thatguy: Would you rather have a very deep farm system that lacks a true blue chip talent, or a more shallow farm system with a Bryant level talent in it?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how deep we’re talking, but in general, a guy like Bryant is worth a lot more than a bunch of midlevel prospects.

Rex from Alaska: For a team like the A’s who ship players constantly to-and-from Nashville during the regular season, if the 10-day DL means an increasing number of such transactions, wouldn’t that sort of skyrocket travel bills over the course of the year?

Dave Cameron: I would think it would mean fewer trips to Nashville, since they can now DL guys they would have previously optioned.

Big Joe Mufferaw: If Otani is posted next year. Basically a team will have to spend 20 mil and then go way over budget and endure all the penalties right? There’s no way around it?

Dave Cameron: There are no more penalties; it’s a hard cap now. So any team wanting to sign him would have to trade for about $4 million in pool money, then offer him ~$9M, the max any team can offer.

Dave Cameron: He’s worth ~$250M, so taking $9M and then going through the arb system would be a terrible financial decision for him.

_David_: If an owner told Otani that he would give a a billion dollars to the Gates Foundation if and only if he signed under the rules, would that violate the CBA?

Dave Cameron: Yes; there’s a clause that says you cannot attempt to circumvent the signing bonus rules, and any outside of MLB payment would be treated as a circumvention.

Bork: What’s your top move this off-season so far? White Sox rebuild?

Dave Cameron: Turner at 4/$64M is pretty great.

dom: what would andrew miller have gotten as a FA this winter, if no pick attached?

Dave Cameron: 6/$120M?

Snarfle: Is Eno going to keep doing chats? Because if not, yours might get a lot weirder. All this weird has to go somewhere.

Dave Cameron: The plan is for Eno’s FG role to remain the same.

Roadhog: Who do the Reds ask for from Oakland in a Hamilton trade?

Dave Cameron: Probably someone they don’t want to give up, like Manaea.

Guest: What are your thoughts on the rumored Musgrove/Martes/Tucker asking price from the Astros for Quintana?

Dave Cameron: It’s too much to give up, but I’m not surprised that is what CHW is asking for.

dom: was the hype on Archie Bradley ever as loud as it was on Giolito?

Dave Cameron: Well, on the 2014 BA Top 100, he ranked #9, right behind Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa. He was ahead of Lindor, Russell, Syndergaard, Springer…

AJ: Hi Dave/ When the smoke clears, who else do the White Sox move? I think Robertson is a definite. Don’t think there is enough of a market for Abreu and Frazier. And I don’t think anyone meets Quintana’s asking price. Thanks.

Dave Cameron: I’d bet Robertson, Quintana, Melky, and Frazier all go before Opening Day. Might take an injury in spring training to jumpstart a deal for one of those guys, but I don’t think they hold onto any of those guys. Abreu sticks around until next year when there’s a thinner RH 1B free agent class.

Tom: Do you think Kopech ever pans out as a starter?

Dave Cameron: I heard enough Syndergaard comps last week to not write it off.

Dave Cameron: The command obviously has a ways to go.

Matt: How long until Urias becomes the undisputed #2 arm in the Dodgers rotation?

Dave Cameron: Well Maeda is pretty good.

Dave Cameron: So 2018?

Dumpster Dan is looking for you: Hi Dave: a lot of talk in various sites about the O’s needing to trade Zach Britton while his market value is the highest. I’m ok with that given the state of the Orioles farm system, but wouldn’t make sense to wait until the trade deadline and see where the O’s stand? I know there’s an injury risk, but if the O’s are out of it by then IMO they’ll have greater leverage. Am I wrong?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think waiting until July is probably the path I’d go down. Evaluate your own chances, and get the big bump in prices that relievers get in July.

JA: What are the chances that the International FA rules change before the next CBA is written? Can that even happen?

Dave Cameron: They have a memorandum of understanding that lays out the general principles, but the actual legal language hasn’t been written yet. They can’t change the structure, but they might be able to tweak some things in the actual language.

Pink Floyd Mayweather: For everyone saying Yoan Moncada is a can’t-miss prospect, please remember that the road to the majors is littered with the remains of failed can’t-miss prospects. Sale wins now. Cheaply.

Dave Cameron: No one is saying Moncada is can’t miss.

Dave Cameron: He’s a high upside guy, but there’s obviously plenty of risk there too.

Dave Cameron: That said, the idea that only Moncada has risk is silly. Sale is a pitcher with a funky delivery, a thin frame, and a bunch of innings on his arm. You can’t just dismiss Moncada as a risk and pretend like we know Sale is going to stay healthy.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: In terms of career WAR or your preferred quality shorthand, what is the expectation from Giolito for a team that is down on him?

Dave Cameron: Feeling from people I talked to is he’s more likely to be a middle-to-back-end guy. Maybe something like what Taijuan Walker has been.

Everything’s On Sale!: I wasn’t comparing all of Moncada’s wins with one year of Sale; ZIPs sees the players involved as a almost a wash by 2018. I know Sale is more certain and Moncada could bust, but it just seems to me like teams should almost always be going for value, and the Red Sox gave up a ton for a short term upgrade.

Dave Cameron: I haven’t read the piece you’re referring to, but I can’t see how ZIPS would see Sale in 2017 as equivalent in value to BOS as Moncada and Kopech.

Dave Cameron: Moncada isn’t ready for the big leagues yet, and Kopech is a 2018 guy at best.

Biggy: Who has the most WAR in their career: Benintendi, Bregman, or Dahl?

Dave Cameron: Bregman

Hunky Dory: Really? Moncada in CF? Why?

Dave Cameron: Plus plus speed is wasted a bit in the infield. Infield defense is more about reactions, hands, positioning, arm accuracy, and other things that aren’t just raw athleticism.

Dave Cameron: There’s a reason Billy Hamilton was a meh shortstop but is the best defensive outfielder on the planet.

Erik: If VV’s future is indeed as a reliever, what shouls the Phillies do? 1) Trade him ASAP to a team who thinks he’s a starter. 2) Use him as a reliever right away to get him used to that role by the time the Phillies make the playoffs in a few years. 3) Use him as a starter until he breaks, just in case it works out?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably just turn him into an RP, then sell him in a year as the new Ken Giles.

Dave Cameron: Five cheap years of a dominant young relief ace would fetch a lot if he takes to the role well.

CarrotJuice: Any idea why Steamer is lower on a good chunk of the Cubs position players compared to ZiPS? ZiPS thinks Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, and Baez will be worth at least 1 WAR more than Steamer projects, and has a higher projection for all the Cubs (mostly) every day players with the exception of Schwarber.

Dave Cameron: Steamer is generally lower on guys than ZIPS. They’re using different regression points and aging curves.

Matt: How much of Tomas’ contract would the Dbacks have to eat to move him to an AL team?

Dave Cameron: Maybe 1/2 to 3/4.

Dave Cameron: He’s not very good.

The Ghost of Rachel Phelps: So, um, what are the Rockies doing?

Dave Cameron: No one knows.

DN: How much more could the Mets get for Thor than Sale got?

Dave Cameron: Probably an extra quality prospect, but the package would be similar. The five years versus three years helps, but pitcher attrition is high enough that you’re not giving up way more for the chance Thor is still healthy in years 4/5. And Thor had the elbow issues last year, plus is already a TJ guy, so you probably don’t want to bet big on his long-term health.

Toms Cruise: Should Toronto fans be upset that Shapiro/Atkins haven’t really gone in either direction you and Jeff suggested? A half measure seems like the worst outcome possible.

Dave Cameron: It’s still just December.

Scarfo: If the Red Sox clear some payroll via Buchholz trade, does Bautista consider a 1-year contract to recoup some value? (reports were that he was very interested in playing in Boston)

Dave Cameron: Don’t think so; they’re probably done.

Patrick Crowe: At this point, who does Bautista sign with, and for how long?

Dave Cameron: No idea.

Dave Cameron: Maybe the Rockies sign him to be their #4 starter?

Matt K: Re Otani: Why doesn’t a team just sign him to the max bonus then immediately give him a huge extention?

Dave Cameron: MLB wouldn’t allow it. The question is how long the “an extension circumvents the rules” ban would be able to go. Can a team give him a big extension after his first start if he strikes out 25 guys and hits 4 HRs? After two starts? Five?

Dave Cameron: There’s a point at which MLB can’t realistically argue that the extension was pre-arranged to violate the rules. No one really knows where that point is though.

Guest: Other than the the Pirates, do you see any good fits for McCutchen?

Dave Cameron: Houston could use a CF

foulballz: you seem to be doing a great job of both chatting and watching your kid. kudos fellow pops!

Dave Cameron: Cartoons are a magical thing.

Frankur: With the shelf life of pitchers shorter than hitters, could pitchers form their own union and ask for, say, earlier free agency?

Dave Cameron: It will never happen, but I’ve argued for a while that they should be under different contract terms.

Matt: You think Miller would have basically gotten 150% the lump sum Chapman got?! Really?

Dave Cameron: Well the draft pick is worth something like $10M, so Chapman’s real cost was more like $95M. So, yeah, I think Miller could have gotten $25M more than Chapman, given that he’s better, shown more willingness to pitch in different roles, and doesn’t have the off-field baggage.

Rex from Alaska: But every player placed on the DL comes with a corresponding move. So that would mean more trips *from* Nashville.

Dave Cameron: Ah, yeah, I see what you were saying now. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

Rob: Is Astros resistance to trading Tucker, Martes & Musgrove the Musgrove part of the deal? Would Tucker, Martes and a lower level prospect be a more likely deal?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think they’d probably rather keep the guy who looks like a league average starter in 2017 around.

Jordan: Did I miss something? Why would someone ask about Eno’s status?

Dave Cameron: He announced yesterday that he’s stepping down from RotoGraphs. He got a job doing a new beer thing, and so he’s stepping back from fantasy stuff.

Chat Guy: If Kopech is getting Syndergaard comparisons, what comparison was Syndergaard getting at the same development point as Kopech?

Dave Cameron: Well Syndergaard didn’t throw 100 when he was in the low minors. His velo spiked as he climbed the ladder.

Erik: Will the White Sox challenge the all time loss record this year, assuming they move everyone you say they will?

Dave Cameron: No. Losing 120 is really hard.

johnforthegiants: If a player with say 3 years of team control left gets released and then signed by another team to a one year contract, does the new team still have three years of control?

Dave Cameron: If the player is 3 years shy of the necessary 6 years of service time, then yes. If they had 3 years left on a deal they signed but already have 6 years of FA, then no.

Dave Cameron: So, for instance, if the Rangers released Shin-Soo Choo, whoever signed him would just get him for one year.

Dave Cameron: But if the Rangers cut Jurickson Profar, you’d get the three years.

Phil: whoa whoa whoa… Kiermaier > Hamilton

Dave Cameron: Overall? Sure. Defensively? Not sold. I think if you put Hamilton on a team that aggressively positioned as often as TB, he’d rate even better by UZR/DRS.

Deacon: Plus speed forecasts better to CF. Do you see Trea Turner returning to CF, Eaton to RF, and Harper to LF or FA longterm?

Dave Cameron: That’s how i’d do it, but that’s not how WAS is going to do it.

Fat Kenny G: Re: VV, why are people so quick to turn pitchers into relievers. It took Randy Johnson a few years to turn into Randy fricken Johnson.

Dave Cameron: Velasquez’s issues are health related, with RJ didn’t have.

Jim Lonborg: You’re exaggerating about Hamilton, right? You’d take him over Kiermaier, Bradley, and Pillar?

Dave Cameron: Defensively? Hamilton is insanely great.

Bases on Balks: Looking at their stats, the Giants bullpen really wasn’t terrible. They were pretty middle-of-the road at almost everything. So why did they blow so many saves and seem like such a dumpster fire?

Dave Cameron: They were crazy unclutch.

Dave Cameron: They were fine in blowouts, terrible in close games.

mike sixel: Has the massive snow started in Bend yet? What do you suppose the logic is in not allowing international money to be traded until after july 2? why can teams still not trade draft picks, do you suppose?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, we’re getting dumped on. Probably going to get a foot down here.

Dave Cameron: In terms of the bonus money, teams can’t officially sign anyone until July 2, so they don’t need money until then.

Tim: Dave – What teams and topics get the most clicks at Fangraphs?

Dave Cameron: The teams you’d expect, plus the Blue Jays. Blue Jays fans will click on anything. It was hilarious to watch the traffic when the Drew Storen-Joaquin Benoit trade went down. Seattle fans were like “eh, who cares”, but Benoit’s player page instantly became our most viewed page.

Hi Erix: Syndergaard hasn’t had Tommy John surgery.

Dave Cameron: Hmm. My mistake, then. I thought he had it in the minors.

Vince Clortho: How do you know every fanbase’s dumb nicknames for their players? It’s a lot to keep straight and very impressive? Related: Who in the great goddam is VV?

Dave Cameron: Vincent Velasquez.

Dave Cameron: There aren’t many VV guys in the majors.

Chaps: re McCutchen to Astros: You don’t think that Aoki/Beltran in LF, Springer in CF, and Reddick in RF is enough?

Dave Cameron: Beltran should DH.

Dooduh: There was no draft comp for Chapman.

Dave Cameron: Well I’m just getting all kinds of factual things wrong today.

Dave Cameron: I blame the kid.

WhiteSox2020: Quintana for Bregman. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: Houston

mike sixel: Not sure I agree on the international money, you would want budgets and plans before July 2….Headed to Bend next week, hoping the passes are all nice and clear….

Dave Cameron: Teams will line up the trades just like the line up the signings.

Dave Cameron: They won’t be official, but they’ll be agreed to.

Dave Cameron: Alright, that will do it for me today.

Dave Cameron: We’ll do the last chat of 2016 next Wednesday.

Dave Cameron: I’ll try to get fewer things wrong then.