Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 12/9/15

Dave Cameron: So, this will probably be a boring chat, since nothing is really going on. No big trades last night or anything.

Dave Cameron: Obviously, the Shelby Miller trade is probably going to dominate the day, but we’ll work on getting to other stuff too. Maybe. I don’t know. The Shelby Miller trade!

Dave Cameron: We’re going to start a few minutes early today, since the queue is already full, so let’s get this fired up.

Kurt Bevacqua: Think we’re done with major moves for the Winter Meetings? Seems quiet, like some folks may have found earlier flights home.

Dave Cameron: Some GMs might catch the last flight out tonight, but probably only the ones who are sure they’re not going to do anything. I’d imagine every team in baseball is trying to figure out how to call Dave Stewart and do something today, so even if they don’t have something obvious, they’re going to be trying.

The Dude: Did you see the ZiPS projections on Adam Warren? Do you really think he’s a mid 3 WAR SP, and a 1-1.5 WAR RP?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’m with Szymborski on taking the under by a good amount. I’d see him as more of an average starter or a solid reliever.

Oz10: Have you seen many trades worse than DBacks-Braves from yesterday? Just by process and not results, it seems pretty awful.

Dave Cameron: By process or results, it’s an absolute disaster. It’s worse than Kemp/Grandal and maybe worse than Jones/Bedard. By process you could maybe argue Wells/Napoli was worse, but the Braves will benefit more from this deal than Toronto did from that one.

The Dude: Does the Miller trade indicate that the Dbacks have faith in Tomas as everyday OF? Do you have faith in him?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that they had much choice but to have faith in him; they still owe him like $60 million over the next five years, and they weren’t going to just keep him around as a 4th OF at that price. I wouldn’t be surprised if he improved a decent amount this year, but he can improve a lot and still be terrible.

Larry Bernandez: Inciarte alone should have been an overpay for Miller, no?

Dave Cameron: No, Inciarte for Miller would have been fair. With the way pitching and defense are priced on the open market, I think you could have even made a case for Inciarte and Blair for Miller, if the Braves threw in a second smaller thing. But including Swanson is insanity.

Jack: Are the Mets better off without Zobrist? Does it depend on what they do instead?

Dave Cameron: Always depends on what the other options are, but Zobrist is good and signed for a good price, so hard to see them having clearly better options.

Carson Cistulli: If the reports of the Marlins making the demand of Joc / C. Seager / Urias / two others from LAD in exchange for Fernandez are accurate, do you think they actually intend to get a deal done? Or are they just trying to find the team that will overpay the most?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, at that point, they’re just telling people he’s not available.

Corey: How do the braves not trade Freddie Freeman at this point? Think they can be good before his contract is up?

Dave Cameron: This trade makes that significantly more possible. They now have a real CF, a franchise SS who could easily be ready by 2017, and another potential quality starter who is close to the big leagues. This trade makes their short-term better, not worse. And their long-term. All the Braves terms got better last night.

Aaron: I really enjoyed August Fagerstrom’s article about Jason Heyward playing CF. Do you think Alex Gordon could play CF competently if signed by the Cubs, who have below average defense at the corners?

Dave Cameron: No, a lot of Gordon’s defensive value is tied to his arm, so his range would be exposed in CF.

Kyler: How does the Inciarte acquisition affect Mallex Smith? Will Inciarte simply move to a corner when Smith is ready, with other moves happening at that time?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Or maybe the Braves won’t keep Inciarte; they could theoretically flip him for a worse-but-also-useful outfielder and more stuff if they wanted.

Roberto: At this point, would you consider the Cubs the favorites in the NL Central next year? I’m somewhat worried about the long term implications of the deals to aging guys but the 2016 team should be pretty good, especially once they add a CF. Warren > Hammel should help in the rotation as well.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Warren displaces Hammel in the rotation. Warren is the perfect #6 starter, a guy who can pitch well in relief and then step in if someone gets hurt. But yes, the Cubs might be the best team in baseball right now.

Brandon: Which player fits in Texas better? Napoli or Pearce?

Dave Cameron: Pearce.

Ranger: I agree the Miller trade was an overpay. How much of that deal has to do with the increasing price for mid level pitchers?

Dave Cameron: Zero. The D’Backs had deals for similar quality pitchers on the table for just Inciarte. They just don’t know how to value talent.

Cubs: Do you like swapping Castro for Zobrist and Warren?

Dave Cameron: Impossible to not like it, I think. Unless you’re a Cardinals or Pirates fan.

dom: In a vacuum would you rather have Zobrist for ages 35-38 or Castro for 26-29 at half the $?

Dave Cameron: That’s not the option the Cubs were choosing between so it’s a pointless question.

Phillies113: I realize that a “win is a win”, but is it possible that teams value wins provided by a pitcher differently than those provided by a position player? Maybe the $8m/WAR shouldn’t be used to assess both pitchers and players.

Dave Cameron: Most FA SP contracts have been right in line with $8M/win expected price. Relievers are definitely higher, as we’ve talked about before.

Ranger: Miller will only be due around $5 million next year, and like only $20 million for his contract. Compare that with the price it will take for Mike Leake or look at what Samardjiza got. (Accidently hit enter earlier, wanted to add this). I think part of this trade boiled down to the Diamondbacks finances piling up and the high price of starters.

Dave Cameron: He’ll make something closer to $25M in arbitration over the next three years, but yes, the low cost absolutely factored into why they went after him. But this is the kind of package you give up to get Carlos Carrasco, not Shelby Miller. Miller isn’t the only cheap available starter.

Jason Heyward: Who is the favorite to sign me?

Dave Cameron: Cardinals

DaveS: What’ll it take for the Cubs to get Lucroy from the Brewers? And is it worth it?

Dave Cameron: At the prices I’ve heard the Brewers are asking, you don’t want him. Insane asking prices.

Corey: Will the Braves let Inciarte play everyday? Should they? Olivera, Markakis, Bourn, and Swisher makes for a crowded OF or a very expensive bench.How do you see playing time allotted?

Dave Cameron: Inciarte is the regular CF if they don’t trade him, with Markakis and Olivera in the corners. On days they play Bourn, Inciarte moves to a corner.

Dave Cameron: Even though Inciarte is clearly the better defender, they like his flexibility to play all three spots.

Gary: So were the Diamondbacks too focused on Miller and insufficiently interested in shopping their package around for a better arm? I imagine any team would have jumped at the chance to give someone better than Miller for what the Diamondbacks gave up.

Dave Cameron: Yep. When you focus solely on a target and don’t weigh the costs and benefits of a variety of options, you end up paying whatever the seller wants you to pay for the thing you’ve already decided you want.

Pat: Fair to say the Fangraphs community likes the Cubs side better than the Yankees side of last night’s trade?

Dave Cameron: I think Warren is more valuable than Castro, but I don’t hate it for the Yankees.

adam: Miami is obviously demanding a king’s ransom for Jose but you always start high in negotiations. What would a realistic deal with LA look like and what is the benefit for LA?

Dave Cameron: Urias and a few other smaller pieces. The benefit for the Dodgers is they move their wins up from the future to the present.

adam: How much will the D’Backs regret everything in two years?

Dave Cameron: Forget two months; they’ll probably regret this by June.

Bill: What would you think about the Arizona trade if they had gotten Fernandez instead of Miller? Do you think that would have been a fair deal for both sides?

Dave Cameron: Yes, the price paid for Miller is a fair price to acquire Fernandez.

Jeremiah: Who’s a better fit for the Cardinals’ needs? Heyward or Upton?

Dave Cameron: Heyward

mike sixel: 1. The software is no longer blocked at my work. 2. Odds AZ is saying “I told you so” in 2 years like KC is right now?

Dave Cameron: This trade is so much worse than the Shields trade. Shields was a better pitcher than Miller is now, and they got Davis. Even if Myers = Swanson (debatable), and Blair = Odorizzi, there was no Inciarte in that trade.

Dave Cameron: So they got less and gave up more.

dom: Do you think the Mets are upset they didn’t trade a SP for Swanson?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I would have traded Harvey for this package if I was the Mets.

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: Would you give an idea on the process of the Winter Meetings? Is it structured around front office personnel or more of a ‘networking’ vibe?

Dave Cameron: The structured part is the job fair/trade show, and all the minor league stuff. That’s really who needs to have this thing at a convention center where everyone can meet up. For the MLB teams and those of us covering the moves, there’s no schedule.

Tyler: Hi Dave, I was just wondering Fangraphs policy on their statistics being cited elsewhere. I am writing for a non-revenue generating site and wanted to see if it was allowed to include the statistics ya’ll host in my articles. Do you just need a disclaimer, or are they completely disallowed? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: You can cite to your hearts content.

Dave Cameron: Don’t steal our content, but if you’re writing original content, you can use as many of our stats as you want.

ozzie: So Chris Sale is untradeable, in practical terms – correct?

Dave Cameron: I think there could have been a deal with the Red Sox before they signed Price. It’s not impossible, but yeah, the asking price would have to be so high.

Derek: Soooo….Shelby Miller is worth the number one draft pick, plus a starting caliber OF AND another top 100 SP prospect? Will any other GM’s be able to use this as a template for other trades or will they be laughed at because this was so lopsided?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, no one else in baseball is dumb enough to make this kind of trade. This was a one-shot deal, and that shot has been fired.

Robert: Does the Miller trade all but guarantee Fernandez doesn’t get moved, assuming the Marlins will use it to set the market?

Dave Cameron: The Marlins asking prices have been guaranteeing that they won’t move him.

Crazy Buck Martinez: Off the top of your head, which starter would have been fair value for the D’Backs package? Maybe a Harvey/Carrasco?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, something in that range. Or Sonny Gray.

Joel: Did the M’s give up too much in the Wade Miley deal?

Dave Cameron: I like Carson Smith, but slider-heavy relievers are not something you count on getting long-term value from. I think the trade was fine, but I also don’t like Elias at all, so I don’t see him as a significant loss.

Gilby: Does a Montero, Lind platoon give the Mariners roughly major league average production at first base?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, something like that.

AZsnakesin15: Is it possible you stat nerds don’t know everything? That there was something the traditional scouts saw about Swanson that might suggest he isn’t all you guys make him out to be?

Dave Cameron: The traditional scouts took him #1 overall five months ago. So, no.

Rob: What do you think about the way the Cubs have built their bullpen? They now have four relievers (Warren, Cahill, Wood, and Richard) who started games last year. They seem to be set up really well for quick hooks and multi-inning relief stints, which seems to be an optimal strategy for non-Arrieta/Lester days.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if they can get another quality reliever, I’ll love their pen.

Doug: What did you think of the Zobrist/castro moves?

Dave Cameron: Big fan.

Dave Cameron: for the Cubs.

Catoblepas: Is it even fair to call it the Shelby Miller trade? Ender Inciarte was just as good, and is controlled longer

Dave Cameron: That’s basically the point of the piece I wrote for Fox today, which may go up at some point.

Joe: Is it dumb of the Orioles to offer Davis $150M?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t go that high, but if some of it is deferred, it’s not a franchise killer. They shouldn’t go any higher though.

Scott: Hey Dave, any chance we can get a Nashville FG meetup tonight?

Dave Cameron: If you come to the Opryland this evening, you can come meet up and say hi. We won’t do anything official, though; hard to have an event when we might have to just shut it down to go write at any moment.

Joel: What are the Rockies doing, nothing?

Dave Cameron: Jason Motte and Chad Qualls are not exactly nothing. But maybe as close as one can get while doing things.

Christian: With the Lind trade, do you think Dipoto is mostly done outside of getting some more bullpen arms or does he try to get an impact outfielder?

Dave Cameron: I think he’s mostly done.

MK: Could the Dback have gotten Cashner, Kimbrel, and Shields for just Swanson at the beginning of the offseason?

Dave Cameron: I would imagine so, yes.

Dave Dombrowski: Is last night’s Shelby Miller deal worse than my sale of Doug Fister for $0.30 on the dollar?

Dave Cameron: Way worse.

mshirk: Analysis on the site has focused on the Castro trade from the Cubs point of view (understandable) but what do you think about it from the Yankees POV? What can we expect from Castro going forward? Is 4/40 fair for his expected production?

Dave Cameron: I think he’s roughly an average player, which has value, and $40M for an average player is probably a little below market at this point.

Eric: Seems to me that most analysis of contracts views longer ones as inherently bad for teams. But it’s really the price that is an issue. Many fans are so obsessed with avoiding long term contracts that I honestly think they’d prefer a 3/60 deal over a 4/60 deal.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the focus on how deals will look at the end of the term is silly. It’s all about value, and it doesn’t really matter if the deal ends poorly as long as you get enough value up front.

Eric Weinstein: What’s the best pitcher the D’Backs could have gotten for the Miller package? Carlos Carrasco? Jose Fernandez? Chris Archer? Chris Sale?

Dave Cameron: Not enough for Archer or Sale, but yeah, Carrasco, Fernandez, Harvey, Gray… those are the kinds of arms this package should have landed.

Scott: What’s the Braves gameplan from this point? Is it just to sit and wait it out until their prospectsdevelop?

Dave Cameron: They’ll keep adding mid-level pieces, then try to add something big next winter.

greg: Could Chapman’s trade value drop to the point where the Reds would have to hold onto him and issue the QA next fall?

Dave Cameron: I think he gets moved in July at this point.

Ronnie: Given the market value of mid level to back-end starting pitching has seemingly gone to insane levels, do you think Cueto is going to far exceed his salary predictions?

Dave Cameron: No, I think he’s going to get something close to the 7/$140M I predicted.

Doug: Would you take the over/under on 94 wins for the Cubs right now?

Dave Cameron: Under, but not by a lot.

Jason: Does the Shields/Myers deal at least give you some pause about this Arizona/Atlanta deal?

Dave Cameron: Nope. Just because a bad move has a significant chance of working out well does not cease to make it a bad move.

Justin: What would you say was the “option the cubs were choosing between” wrt Zobrist v. Castro?

Dave Cameron: Castro and sign a pitcher or Zobrist and Warren. The latter is better.

Mike: Steamer seems very pessimistic on the Tigers this year all around, with declines projected for just about everyone. Do you share that pessimism, or do you think the high priced guys have one more year left before it’s over?

Dave Cameron: Older guys get worse. They have a lot of older guys.

Mike Rizzo: Why won’t anyone take my money? Am I just not offering enough of it?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think they got outbid on O’Day and Zobrist just wanted to play for Joe Maddon again.

Rays 7th Infielder: Is there ever going to be a point when $/WAR deflates? I can’t imagine that in 2025 we’re going to be talking about $15MM for 1 WAR, but it seems to be trending that way.

Dave Cameron: Depends on how revenues and the league’s salary structure get negotiated. If the minimum salary goes way up, then teams will have less to spend on FAs.

Dave Cameron: But in general, as long as MLB is growing, the cost per win will probably rise as well.

M’s: Do you like the Lind trade for the Mariners with the 3 minor leaguers?

Dave Cameron: Lind is a decent player and the Mariners didn’t have any prospects left worth losing sleep over.

Jeff: If the Red Sox offered jbj, Owens, devers and merrerro for Fernandez, would that get the Marlins attention?

Dave Cameron: Nope

Mike: Dave, do you think the Jays got Donaldson for less than Arizona traded for Miller?

Dave Cameron: Absolutely.

Dave Cameron: Lawrie and Inciarte have some paralells, but Braves get Inciarte for more years. Swanson > Barreto. Blair > Nolan and Graveman, at least to most teams, probably.

Scott: Is there anyway you can spin this into a win for the Dbacks?

Dave Cameron: Nope. The stock answer is going to be “we’re trying to win now, and prospects are no sure thing”, but they could have traded Inciarte for a pitcher almost as good, and then traded Swanson and Blair for other really good things that helped them. Even in win-now-screw-the-future mode, this is a disaster, because they gave up three of their best trade chips to not improve.

Alex Gordon: Where do you think I play for the next 4 seasons?

Dave Cameron: Whichever of the Angels/Cardinals doesn’t land Heyward, maybe?

Jack: How does the Miller trade compare to the Dickey trade? I feel like the Dickey trade wasn’t judged as harshly at the time but I’m not sure why not. Blue Jays were only getting one year from him + an extension.

Dave Cameron: The extension was part of the trade, so they were getting three years. And neither TDA or Syndergaard were prospects on Swanson’s level, and there was no Inciarte in that deal.

Scott: Is Stewart’s recklessness an indictment of having former players serve as GMs?

Dave Cameron: No, just this particular former player.

GSon: The Giants & DBax both improved to the point of moving ahead of the Dodgers as the favorites to win the NL West.. Do the Dodgers sit on their hands.. waiting for the Chapman Mess to clear.. or do they move on?..

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers are still the best team in that division by a good margin.

leonhard14: For every Carlos Correa, there is a Matt Bush. Not saying that it was a good trade (it wasn’t), but prospects do flame out. It very well could be that they traded a light hitting OF and two bench pieces for a high end #2/3.

Dave Cameron: Pitchers flame out too. You don’t just to play that game with the pieces they give up and pretend Miller is a sure thing.

PeggyandEd: Urias and Pederson. Too much for Fernandez ?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

anon: Will the angels cross the cap and sign a cespedes/upton?

Dave Cameron: They want a lefty bat.

Jeff: Could the Orioles look to trade either bundy or Harvey with other pieces to the braves for Freddie freeman?

Dave Cameron: No, those guys have minimal value

Joey Joe Joe: So does this officially bestow the title of worst front office in MLB upon Arizona? Wtf are they doing?

Dave Cameron: They’ve been the worst front office for a while now.

mike sixel: off topic……how is it being the only non-drinker with your crew this week?

Dave Cameron: Cheap! Also, they appreciate the designated driver.

Bobi Jindle: Why did Zobrist sign for so much lower than most people thought?

Dave Cameron: The crowd guessed 3/42 and he got 4/56.

MK: Do others GMs get mad when competitors do stupid stuff? I feel like Sandy Alderson and Mike Rizzo should be pretty unhappy today.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I had a lot of friends in the game who were upset at AZ yesterday.

Ray: Do you agree with the baseball insiders who think the DBacks are the favorites in the NL West now? If not, who is?

Dave Cameron: They’re probably still not within 5 games of the Dodgers. They might even still be 10 games back.

Jaack: Am I crazy for thinking the DBacks are still the third best team in their division?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

The Dude: What kind of return can Rockies get for CarGo?

Dave Cameron: Something like what the Cubs got for Starlin Castro, maybe.

David: Who says no first? Indians get Freeman, Inciarte and Grilli and Braves get Zimmer, Rameriez, Kaminsky and Urshela.

Dave Cameron: Braves have zero interest

MG: The D’backs TV guy, Steve Berthiume, used to be in his ESPN days saber-friendly and objective. Since moving to AZ, he has defended the search for “grit” and last night on twitter enthusiastically backed this trade, too. Is there something in the air in AZ?

Dave Cameron: He works for the team. He likes his job.

Colby: If you’re Greinke are you regretting signing that deal after seeing that trade?

Dave Cameron: He knew he was leaving a very well run organization for one that was going to do weird stuff.

JP: What exactly is the plan in St. Louis with Gyorko?

Dave Cameron: Platoon with Wong, play some short when Peralta is dinged up.

Bork: With the way contracts are increasing, would it actually be wise for some teams to do long term contracts? For example for Chris Davis, a $150/7 year deal may seem like a lot now, but 4 years from now it could be a steal in the slugger market.

Dave Cameron: Chris Davis won’t be a slugger in four years.

Pork Chop: Do you think Zobrist actually had 4/80 on the table? Did he take that huge of a discount?

Dave Cameron: No

Josh in DC: When you say you’re “hearing” this or that, who are you talking to? Reporters? Front offices? I’m curious why a front office person would ever tell you anything — and I don’t mean that as an insult. What’s to be gained by telling Dave Cameron that a franchise is looking closely at a player?

Dave Cameron: You work around baseball long enough, you develop friends. Friends talk to each other.

Denver Tribe Fan: Why didn’t you guys bring leftovers back for Eno last night?

Dave Cameron: Blame Appelman. I tried to but he told everyone to just keep eating.