KATOH’s Rule 5 Pref List: The Hitters

The Winter Meetings are underway in Nashville, which means all 30 GMs are under the same roof for a few days. As you’re probably aware, this has already resulted in a few high–profile transactions. Less interestingly, this also means the Rule 5 draft is upon us.

Below, I touch on a few of the available hitters who catch KATOH’s eye. Keep in mind that KATOH is designed to identify the best prospects overall, so it’s output isn’t perfectly aligned with what makes for a good Rule 5 pick. An interesting prospect might not be worth taking in the Rule 5 if he’s very far away from the big leagues. Carlos Tocci, who features an interesting profile but is unlikely prepared for the majors, is this year’s embodiment of that phenomenon.

Similarly, there are there are older guys who might be able to help a big league team, but don’t grade out well according to my prospect model due to their age. Some prime examples from this year’s class are Jabari Blash and Balbino Fuenmayor. Yes, I chose those two as examples due to their double-plus names. I didn’t touch on players like Blash or Fuenmayor here, though, since they’re slightly outside of KATOH’s wheelhouse. If they’re selected, I’ll take a look at them after the draft.

Identifying eligible Rule 5 players isn’t completely straightforward, so I can’t promise I didn’t miss a name or two along the way. But at the very least, I can assure you this piece contains most of KATOH’s favorite hitters who will be available on Thursday. Immediately below, you’ll find the names of seven hitters who are relatively close to being big-league ready. Below that, you’ll find three more who are a bit further away. For each player, I’ve included his projection through age 28 based both on his 2015 stats and also 2014 stats.

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Seven Big-League-Ready(ish) Hitters

Todd Glaesmann, OF, Arizona (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 3.4 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.0 WAR

Glaesmann hit a powerful .278/.316/.540 in the minors last year, with most of those reps coming at the Triple-A level. The 6-foot-4 outfielder has struggled to make contact in the past, but slashed his strikeout rate to a respectable 19% in Triple-A last year. Glaesmann has succeeded at the Triple-A level, but his lack of consistent contact still makes it unclear how much he’ll hit in the big leagues. His atrocious 2014 campaign is also a blemish on his otherwise encouraging statistical track record.

Taylor Davis, C, Chicago NL (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 3.3 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): N/A

Davis slashed a solid .311/.361/.483 in the minors last year, with most of his games coming at the Triple-A level. Davis makes a lot of contact and complements it with a healthy dose of power, which makes for a compelling offensive package overall. What really sets Davis apart, though, is that he’s a catcher, where the bar for offense is comically low. At 26, there’s probably not a lot of upside here, but Davis would almost certainly be an upgrade over several teams’ current backup.

Tyler Goeddel, OF, Tampa Bay (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.9 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.5 WAR

Goeddel transitioned from third base to the outfield in 2015, and he took a step forward offensively as well. He hit a strong .279/.350/.443 in Double-A and also kicked in 28 steals. Goeddel’s had some trouble making contact in the past, but his combination of power and speed is intriguing. Hitters with that skill set and have already succeeded in Double-A don’t grow on trees. He’s probably not quite ready for the show, but he may be close enough that some team takes a flyer on him. Goeddel was also a 41st-overall pick in 2011, so — for better or for worse — he still has some of that first-round shine on him.

Andy Burns, IF, Toronto (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.1 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 2.2 WAR

Burns is a 26-year-old third baseman, who hit .293/.351/.372 in Triple-A last year. Burns offers very little in terms of power, but makes a lot of contact, and has had some semblance of success at the Triple-A level. Burns has experience at all four infield spots and has also dabbled in the outfield, so he’d make for a useful — albeit unexciting — bench player.

Jayce Boyd, 1B/LF, New York NL (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.1 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.2 WAR

Boyd split 2015 between Double-A and Triple-A, where he hit a respectable .281/.338/.381. Boyd hits very few homers, but makes a lot of contact and has demonstrated some doubles power in his three-plus years in the Mets system. He scuffled following a mid-season promotion to Triple-A last year, but perhaps some team will give him a whirl as their part-time first baseman or corner outfielder.

Eric Stamets, SS, Cleveland (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.9 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.0 WAR

Stamets was traded from the Angels to the Indians in exchange for David Murphy. He doesn’t offer much offensively, but does make a good deal of contact. More importantly, he plays solid defense at shortstop and runs fairly well. Despite his offensive shortcomings, Stamets might make for a serviceable bench player.

Dwight Smith, OF, Toronto (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.8 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 5.4 WAR

Smith spent all of last season at the Double-A level, where he hit an unremarkable .265/.335/.376. The former supplemental first-rounder fared better in 2014, however, when he slashed .284/.363/.453 with 15 steals in High-A. Smith makes a good amount of contact, but outside of his 2014 campaign, hasn’t shown much power. Smith almost certainly isn’t ready for the show, but he’s pretty far along for someone who just turned 23.

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Three Hitters Who Aren’t Quite Ready

Carlos Tocci, OF, Philadelphia (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 7.3 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.5 WAR

Tocci may have the highest upside of any player available in this year’s Rule 5 draft. As just a 19-year-old last year, the outfielder turned in an encouraging line of .287/.339/.362 between two classes while also recording 17 steals. The rub is that this performance took place entirely in A-Ball and High-A, which is nowhere close to the big leagues. If a team takes Tocci, it would likely be with an eye towards stashing him for future use. His undeveloped bat and his lack of a standout skill (like speed) limits his utility to a big league team in 2016. But if he develops power, Tocci could easily make for a solid regular in a few years time.

Dorssys Paulino, OF, Cleveland (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 3.7 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.5 WAR

Paulino was a highly-touted shortstop prospect a few years ago, but hit a wall offensively when he reached full-season ball, and subsequently moved to the outfield. He rebounded in 2015, however, by slashing .267/.331/.411 as a 20-year-old in A-Ball. Those numbers were buoyed by a .305/.371/.526 showing following a July promotion to High-A. Paulino has zero high-minors experience, so any team that takes him would do it for the long game more than anything. But given how he ended 2015, it’s not inconceivable that he could help a big league team as soon as this year.

Jin-De Jhang, C, Pittsburgh (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 3.5 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.6 WAR

Jhang’s a 22-year-old catcher who signed with the Pirates out of Taiwan back in 2011. He played exclusively at the High-A level last year, where he essentially had an empty .290 season, slashing .292/.332/.381. Jhang lacks power and rarely walks but does make a lot of contact, which bodes well for his ascent up the minor league ladder. More important than Jhang’s hitting, though, is that he’s a catcher. Catchers don’t need to hit all that much to be useful, meaning Jhang might be a future big leaguer despite his limited offensive ability. Jhang’s bat is nowhere near ready for the majors, but it might be someday. So a team that likes his glove might try to stash him as their backup with the hopes of reaping future rewards.