Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 2/25/15

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday. Let’s talk baseball for an hour or so.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open, and we’ll start chatting at noon.

Comment From mtsw
Tell us what you think about the ESPN rankings of how “analytical” each pro sports organization is. The MLB rankings seemed to be “29 teams ranked by how often they reveal details of their front office to reporters and the Phillies at the bottom”

Dave Cameron: Ben Baumer, who did the MLB write-ups, isn’t a reporter. He worked for the Mets, and interacted with many of the people he listed. I thought it was pretty well done, and was mostly accurate in reflecting each organization’s efforts to embrace analytics.

Comment From PaKCman
So Ken Tremendous has to do a baseball analytics-themed sitcom next, right?

Dave Cameron: I realize I’ll probably get burned at the stake for this, but I watched one episode of Parks and Rec years ago, didn’t laugh once, and have never watched since.

Dave Cameron: Also, I’ve never seen The Wire or Breaking Bad.

Comment From Jaack
Is there any really good team this year that you think has a decent chance of imploding?

Dave Cameron: I could see the wheels just falling off for the Tigers. If Martinez and Cabrera’s injuries linger, Verlander doesn’t fix himself, and J.D. Martinez goes back to being J.D. Martinez, this team could suck.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think all those things will happen, but each one is reasonable on its own.

Comment From adam
over the next 3 years: harper or heyward?

Dave Cameron: Harper. Over almost anyone else in baseball, to be honest. I’m still totally on board the Bryce Harper bandwagon.

Comment From Joe
What do you think the O’s do with Everth Cabrera?

Dave Cameron: Make their second baseman. Jonathan Schoop is bad.

Comment From Walt
ethier goes where now that he has asked for a trade?

Dave Cameron: No one wants him.

Comment From mtsw
What, if anything, valuable can be gleaned by reporting on my favorite team’s spring training?

Dave Cameron: Injury stuff can be useful. Besides that, almost nothing.

Comment From adam
boston gos after yadier with Moncada signed?

Dave Cameron: Rumors circling that the Dodgers are going to blow the doors off the next July 2nd class, so it’s certainly possible, and maybe even likely.

Comment From neal
why is people’s first reaction to the moncada signing bonus “we need a draft so international players get paid less to sign” rather than “american kids should get paid more to sign”?

Dave Cameron: Because there is no one advocating for non-union amateurs. The league doesn’t want to pay them more and the MLBPA doesn’t want to give them more of their slice of the pie.

Comment From greg
Dumb question, but what are you referring to when you say, “count the blinks” before you go on MLBN? You blink too much?… not enough?

Dave Cameron: I am apparently very good at staring into a camera. Some claim it’s because I’m a robot.

Comment From Pale Hose
Are you annoyed or amused when you get confused for that other Dave Cameron on twitter?

Dave Cameron: It’s usually funny.

Comment From Phillies113
The Phillies players, at least publicly, are down-playing the rebuilding talk that surrounds the team. Is there a merit to not publicly acknowledging that the team is in trouble and needs to rebuild, or are they simply delusional?

Dave Cameron: What’s the upside in saying “we’re going to suck and we know it” even if it’s true? Why not put on a happy face and talk about the fact that anything really can happen?

Comment From Tony the Tiger
Thoughts on John Farrell saying that Victorino is Boston’s starting RF?

Dave Cameron: Comments made in mid-February have no impact on who actually plays starting in April.

Dave Cameron: That said, I will continue to maintain that there’s plenty of playing time for Castillo, Betts, and Victorino to share two jobs with everyone getting enough at-bats.

Comment From Rog
Dave, some people have suggested that signing Moncada allows the Sox to be more comfortable moving someone like Betts or Swihart in a Hamels deal. This is still a bad idea, right?

Dave Cameron: Of course. The two things were not related.

Comment From Guest
Wainwright injury…. should I worry?

Dave Cameron: Given that he wasn’t exactly healthy last year, yeah, I think this isn’t a great sign.

Comment From mtsw
Would an NFL combine-style pre-draft event help gin up interest in the MLB draft? People seem to love the combine.

Dave Cameron: That’s because NFL prospects will be starters on their teams next year. Not true of MLB guys, so interest will always be muted.

Comment From Ben
Am I the only one who doesn’t think Amaro isn’t crazy re: Hamels? If his best shot to save his job is to hit a home run in a trade (i.e. multiple top prospects + full salary), why not wait until the price goes up midseason? If he trades him now and Hamels gets injured or whatever, he probably loses his job anyway

Dave Cameron: From a self-interest perspective, you may be right, but I’d fire my GM the moment I thought he was acting in his own interests and not in the best interests of the organization.

Comment From csmountaineer
If the Reds are out of contention by July (as expected), who else can you see being moved other than Cueto?

Dave Cameron: Cueto and Chapman would be the big prizes.

Comment From John
now that the sox have moncada, does it make bogaerts more available?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Comment From Matt
Given the NHL’s new emphasis on public advanced stats, do think baseball will ever endorse them or does it realize they are safe in a strong public baseball community? Should we be concerned about how little we’ve heard on Statcast as well?

Dave Cameron: I’m guessing we’ll start hearing more about Statcast in the next few weeks. They announced it at Sloan last year, for instance, and Sloan happens to be this weekend, at which Rob Manfred has a 1-on-1 with Brian Kenny. Also, I’m on the baseball panel on Saturday morning, so maybe I’ll just hijack the whole thing until someone at BAM tells us what we want to know.

Comment From D
AL MVP: Mike Trout, Miggy, Bautista, and Jose Abreu or the field?

Dave Cameron: Always take the field.

Comment From Chris
Anyone at Fangraphs going to be at the Sloan Conference this week?

Dave Cameron: Appelman and myself are coming in. Bryan Cole of TechGraphs will be around as well.

Comment From Sam
Phil Coke in the news lately. Between him and Beimel, who is the better value at their position?

Dave Cameron: I’ll take Questions That Only Arrive in February for $200, Alex.

Comment From Guest
Given the conflicts between him and ownership, are you surprised Brian Cashman hasn’t tried to find the greener pastures of becoming a team president somewhere?

Dave Cameron: I think he likes the fact that he can speak his mind in NYY and not get fired.

Dave Cameron: Also, they pay well.

Comment From RMR
True or False? Johnny Cueto’s next contract will exceed the value of Max Scherzer’s deal with Washington.

Dave Cameron: False. Injury history will hold him to Lester range.

Comment From cubano
Based on league statistics, the Cuban National Series appears to be a hitter’s league. Yoan Moncada may be the prize, but has the nearly 20-year-old be overhyped? According to CNS statistics at Baseball Reference, Moncada in 2012 and 2013 ranked near the bottom of the Top 100 hitters, granted against far older competition. Of course, the scouts love Moncada.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I would put almost zero stock on a teenager’s performance against guys 10 years older than him.

Dave Cameron: Zero negative stock, anyway. If a guy destroys players 10 years his senior, that’s obviously a great sign.

Comment From Alex
When compiling a team, would it hypothetically be better to have some great players and some average players, or all good players, if the overall WAR was equivalent? Or would there be no difference?

Dave Cameron: Different people have different takes on this. I don’t think it matters.

Dave Cameron: There’s more risk with the stars-and-scrubs approach, but also more opportunity to upgrade for higher upside. Depends on your risk preferences.

Comment From Alex
Dave. Get off this chat and go watch Breaking Bad NOW. You’ll thank me later.

Dave Cameron: My interests often don’t align with pop culture. I don’t find Will Ferrell funny at all, for instance, even though everyone tells me I should.

Comment From GSon
In a forum for lesser Indians fans.. the merits of a player coming to camp are being debated, specifically, SS Jose Ramirez, the Indians projected starting SS.. He comes to camp 23 pounds heavier.. The debate is.. he’s going to be too slow and will lose ranger.. versus.. he’s more mature, stronger and will up his power totals.. Which side do analytics tell us we should lean towards for this 22 year old?

Dave Cameron: That you shouldn’t put any stock on any of these stories.

Comment From Seymour
Regarding the O’s 2B and you saying Schoop is bad…. fact is that Everth is bad though. You seemed to be ignoring that fact in your answer.

Dave Cameron: Cabrera is less bad.

Comment From Dave
Do you think Smyly was upset that American born players get too little in bonuses, or that international signees get too much?

Dave Cameron: The latter.

Comment From mtsw
Does the potential for an international draft changing the system in the future make dollars spend on these prospects even smarter since there won’t be that opportunity to spend in the future?

Dave Cameron: Potentially, though I’d imagine MLB will find a way to still penalize teams in an international draft for overages incurred before the draft was instituted. They’re not going to just wave away the Red Sox penalties if there’s a draft in two years.

Comment From Warrior
Dave, who wins more games – Padres or Blue Jays?

Dave Cameron: Toronto

Comment From Alex
If a clear #1 international prospect like Moncada goes for $60Mil, and has boom/or bust potential, is there any logic in using the same amount of cash to pick up #s2 thorugh 20 because you know that no matter what some of them will pan out?

Dave Cameron: I think that’s what we’re seeing. Yoan Lopez wasn’t considered the best prospect in this class or anything, and he got $8 million.

Dave Cameron: Same with Ricardo Baldoquin.

Comment From Mook
Haven’t heard you reference Mookie Betts in a couple of days now. Everything okay?

Dave Cameron: Just waiting on the paperwork to go through so I can legally adopt him.

Comment From Seymour
Wainwright injury accelerate a Hamels deal? It was already a pretty obvious match…

Dave Cameron: Maybe, or Cardinals could go after Cliff Lee instead, leaving them the long-term flexibility to go after one of the Price/Zimmermann/Cueto/Samardzija group this winter.

Comment From Catoblepas
Jeff revealed yesterday that he writes all his posts in one sitting, which is terrifying. How long does the average post take you?

Dave Cameron: The writing part is usually pretty easy, only an hour or so. It’s the concept/research that takes a while.

Comment From Ben
Which Red Sox pitching prospect do you think could have the biggest impact this season: Owens, Barnes, Rodriguez, Johnson or none of the above?

Dave Cameron: Rodriguez.

Comment From Curtis
Do you anticipate any new Stats of significance in the future or has the bulk of the work already been done in identifying new, relevant statistics? Seems like we have a lot of useful information….will efforts to further define defensive excellence be a focus?

Dave Cameron: Tracking data is going to transform the way we talk about baseball.

Dave Cameron: Give it a few years for the wrinkles to get ironed out and the lessons of the data to really take hold, and things like BABIP will become relics of the past.

Dave Cameron: Ideologically, the Red Sox and Dodgers are probably the two teams who have built rosters under the concepts that I believe in. Or, if you prefer a not-rich-team version, the A’s.

Comment From Tommy Lasordid
Corey Seager or Mookie Betts for the next five years?

Dave Cameron: Betts.

Dave Cameron: Part of that is that he’s going to get an extra year in the big leagues during that timeframe though.

Comment From Shawn
Any updates on the Saber Seminar in Boston this year? Dates?

Dave Cameron: Not announced yet, but mid-August seems like a good bet based on past years.

Comment From Hugo Z
Some have characterized what the Braves are doing as a “retool,” and some call it a “rebuild.” Is there a magic number when it crosses over from one to the other?

Dave Cameron: The A’s and Rays have retooled. The Braves are rebuilding.

Dave Cameron: Retooling suggests that you can still reasonably expect to contend. The Braves can’t.

Comment From John
can’t ethier net something? im assuming the dodgers would be willing to eat most of his contract? nobody would take that?

Dave Cameron: If the Dodgers have to pay him to play for someone else, why not pay him to play for them?

Comment From Trevor
There was a lot of talk on Twitter the other day about the lack of women analysts in pro sports. 1.) Do you think it is a problem and 2.) What do you think can be done to encourage more women or hire more women

Dave Cameron: I do think the male-domination of the sports media is problematic, but I don’t know that I have any real answers. I was hoping more women would apply when we posted our job opening, and I miss having Wendy Thurm’s voice here on staff.

Comment From John
the real question is whether you find archer funny

Dave Cameron: Never seen it.

Comment From Shawn
As someone who’s been broken by the cold, snowy New England winter, where are the best places to live in NC?

Dave Cameron: If you’re a hippie, Asheville. If you’re a medical/education/tech employee, Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill. If you’re rich and retired, the Outer Banks.

Comment From soaktherich
In your chat last week you envisioned a second career giving financial/retirement advice to people with 5-figure incomes. You should stop this idle chatter and start doing that immediately. You could make a real impact on many people’s lives — indeed, probably >90% of your current readers — rather than just entertaining their hobby. You said yourself that there are scads of young seamheads out there that could take your place (in a different context but directly relevant) but few of them would be able to make the contribution that you could make as a financial advisor to the masses. So, FinanGraphs?

Dave Cameron: The catch, maybe: baseball is constantly providing new information to be discussed, analyzed, and commented on. I don’t know how many times I could say “buy low-cost index funds and don’t look at them for 10 years” before I’d get very boring.

Dave Cameron: That said, I continue to toy with the idea of trying something, and if there’s enough interest, it might happen.

Comment From Prich
People always ask if you;d like to be a GM, but, if you came into 10 billion dollars, would you have interest in becoming the majority owner of an MLB team?

Dave Cameron: Sure. At that point, I’d probably try to buy my way into the commissioner’s rule. I’d finally get to abolish the draft.

Comment From Jim
Mookie Betts has been the big name, but what do you see for Xander Bogaerts in the immediate future? It wasn’t all that long ago people projected superstardom and now the outlook seems very bleak.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the outlook is bleak at all. He still projects as an above average shortstop in the short-term and has star potential in the long-term.

Comment From baseball
hi Dave I’ve been trying to do Pitch F/X research for an article but I can’t seem to find sortable pitch f/x data, ala what you would find on brooks baseball.

Dave Cameron: Build your own. One of the best ways to teach yourself database skills is to build a SQL DB with PITCHF/x data. There are a bunch of tutorials online on how to do this.

Dave Cameron: (Or, you can just use Baseball Savant)

Comment From Henry
Cole Hamel will be a ____ on 9/1/2015.

Dave Cameron: I’ll say Dodger, because why not.

Comment From Guest
Are Brad Miller and Chris Taylor available if Martel makes the team and what is their respective trade values?

Dave Cameron: Ketel Marte isn’t making the majors this year. One of the two becomes trade bait if the other really takes the job and runs away with it.

Dave Cameron: Realistically, though, Willie Bloomquist is not a reasonable backup SS on a team trying to win, so they should keep both.

Comment From Guest
Tracking data will make defensive stats like range and positioning much more trustworthy.

Dave Cameron: That is the hope, yes.

Comment From mtsw
Please expand on the “BABIP will become a relic of the past” thing. Do you just mean in the sense that more specific data will render “in play” a not-useful distinction?

Dave Cameron: Once we can estimate the odds of a ball being caught or falling in based on speed off bat, launch angle, hang time, and distance traveled, the buckets will get far more precise, and we won’t need to lump a high fly ball with a line drive down the line.

Comment From Dave
Grantland had a piece up about a new way to evaluate defense in the NBA based upon the tracking data. The data for 1 year was 80 GB. If the MLB tracking data is that enormous, will the public even be able to make anything of it if we’re granted access?

Dave Cameron: We’ll never get the raw data. The hope is that we’ll get useful enough summary data to transform into reliable metrics.

Dave Cameron: But I think it’s actually good that MLBAM is centralizing the collection of the raw tracking data. When teams themselves do it, there’s zero chance it gets to us. With the league doing it, it has a shot at filtering down.

Comment From Mooking for Love
Is Farrell seriously not going to start Mookie?

Dave Cameron: The idea of a “starter” and “bench guy” is outdated. When you have multiple talented players, you play them all. Nothing wrong with having three guys for two spots.

Comment From Dave
How do payments to other clubs get treated by the luxury tax?

Dave Cameron: Still count against the team making the payments.

Comment From Seth
What is Welington Castillo’s trade value?

Dave Cameron: Almost zero.

Comment From Curtis
What do you anticipate Manfred’s biggest challenges to be in the next few years? Do you think he’ll make a stamp of his own on an issue or will he play to the status quo and move slowly (not counting pace of play as a “stamp” in my book anyway)?

Dave Cameron: I think the next CBA is going to be a big fight.

Dave Cameron: The players aren’t going to sit around let the league continue to roll in money without demanding a larger chunk.

Comment From Guest
What have you seen? What are your favorite TV shows and movies?

Dave Cameron: I don’t watch a lot of TV. I did really like The Office, though I stopped watching about halfway through season five or six. I like House. I’ve started watching The Americans, and enjoy it.

Dave Cameron: I don’t have cable, so I’m generally not watching things at the same time as everyone else.

Comment From Montgomery
Why is Moncada worth more than what your prospect valuations say he should be worth? Which is around $40-45M

Dave Cameron: Those aren’t my prospect valuations. I’ve said from the start that while I think Creagh/DiMiceli did really good work, I think their numbers are too low.

Comment From mtsw
Is there a downside to living in San Diego? It seems suspciously nice there like there has to be some catch that people don’t find out about until they move.

Dave Cameron: Cost of living.

Comment From Josh
As a Dodger fan, should I be worried about their depth? Signing Beachy was really good, but everyone has soured on Lee and we know McCarthy/Anderson issues. Doesn’t seem like there is a ton else. The thought of having to get Kevin Correia again terrifies me

Dave Cameron: Your front office is smarter now than it was when they traded for Correia.

Comment From Daniel
Let’s say the Yankees get put on the market tomorrow.. How much does the team sell for?

Dave Cameron: $4-$5 billion.

Comment From Guest
Do you have any opinion about domestic vs. foreign stocks?

Dave Cameron: Have some of both. I think my current portfolio (again, all low-cost index funds) is something like 85% domestic (mix of stocks/bond funds) and 15% international. Might be 90/10. Don’t remember precise allocation off the top of my head.

Comment From Bill
Wendy Thurm isn’t on staff any more? What became of her, as in, what team snapped her up?

Dave Cameron: She’s freelancing for a variety of places. Follow her @hangingsliders on Twitter to see when she posts her new stuff.

Comment From ljc
The $31.5M (times 2) for Moncada was just the signing bonus and tax, correct? Any idea what the actual contract will look like, and hence, what the total outlay would be for 6 years of Moncada?

Dave Cameron: That’s what my piece at JABO was about today, actually. Link going up on FG in ~4 minutes.

Comment From Catoblepas
Do both baseball and low-income financial advice, by answer questions like this in your chats. What’s the “minimum” amount to be clearing over monthly expenses where you should be investing, rather than just putting it into a savings account?

Dave Cameron: Depends entirely on your personal situation. If you have high-interest debt, making that go away is a priority. If you have a matching-401k, you invest enough to at least max out the match. Too many variables at play to say that everyone should be putting 10% of their income into a retirement plan.

Comment From Guest
Dave, can we take a moment and recognize how awesome Kiley has been and is doing. I mean…a Yoan Moncada interview!?!

Dave Cameron: Yeah, Kiley’s killing it. A really great addition to the team.

Comment From Catoblepas
The concerns about data size seem a bit silly to me. It’s not like we get complete PITCHf/x data — it’s compressed into what, six-ten points for each pitch? I have to imagine something similar will happen for tracking data, rather than getting the position/velocity of the ball for each .1 seconds it’s in the air

Dave Cameron: The raw PITCHF/x data is much larger than what you’re seeing on Gameday or on FG.

Dave Cameron: But, yes, the tracking data will get summarized for us, most likely. The question is just how much summarizing MLB intends to do.

Comment From Daniel
Dave, try watching House of Cards

Dave Cameron: Got two episodes in and couldn’t do it anymore.

Comment From Guest
Is there a minimum amount of money a club has to spend like in the Nba where if the team doesnt the players get the difference in a yr end bonus?

Dave Cameron: It’s not codified into a single number, but the MLBPA can complain to the league if a team is not spending its revenue sharing distributions, and the league can force them to spend more. This happened with the Marlins a few years back.

Comment From Guest
The cost of living on the whole west coast is insane

Dave Cameron: The northeast isn’t so cheap either.

Dave Cameron: People like water.

Comment From Guest
Could baseball improve its popularity by starting an educational program teaching statistics/probability in schools using baseball? When I got into the numbers, I loved baseball more than ever.

Dave Cameron: Not just stats. Coding too. Lots of useful skills can be taught by getting someone into baseball analysis.

Comment From i like baseball
Where can I create cool charts? like apart from excel?

Dave Cameron: Tableau

Comment From Matt Damon
What does JABO stand for?

Dave Cameron: Just a Bit Outside.

Comment From mtsw
If I live in New York now, San Diego’s cost of living will actually seem relatively sane though, right?

Dave Cameron: Just like people in Antarctica think Siberia sounds lovely in the summer.

Dave Cameron: Okay, that’s it for me today. Thanks for hanging out everyone. If you’re going to be at Sloan this weekend, please don’t hesitate to come say hello.