Brandon Beachy, and a Sort of Depth-Hack

I don’t think the Dodgers deserve that much credit for signing Brandon Beachy. It’s not like it’s a particularly innovative idea, and a whole host of teams were interested in landing him. The Dodgers beat out almost everyone in available resources, and they beat out almost everyone in immediate outlook, and they had this other advantage, as well:

Beachy said deciding on the Dodgers was easy, mostly because the surgeon of his second Tommy John, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, is also the Dodgers’ team doctor.

“It’s the best place to be,” Beachy said. “I have a lot of faith in Dr. ElAttrache and the training room’s view for bringing me along meshes well with that.”

Beachy was drawn to the Dodgers, and the Dodgers were sufficiently drawn to Beachy to get him to sign. Given everything, the Beachy pickup hardly qualifies as any kind of genius, but for one thing, the upside is readily apparent — the upside of these things is always apparent — and for another, Beachy makes for an interesting depth play. That point isn’t Beachy-specific. Beachy and pitchers like him make for interesting depth plays.

The issue is that which a year ago was so heartbreaking. Beachy is recovering from a second Tommy John surgery. You’ll remember he went down in the same Braves camp that saw Kris Medlen forced to go through a second Tommy John surgery. A year ago, the Braves were devastated; a year later, Medlen and Beachy became free agents. Medlen signed with the Royals long before Beachy signed with the Dodgers.

Some pitchers have survived multiple Tommy John surgeries. Some pitchers have not. This is a pessimistic article from 2007, and this is a decidedly more optimistic article from last April. Some guys in the majors right now have been through a couple such operations, and the thinking seems to be that having a second Tommy John isn’t too dissimilar from having a first, in terms of the projected recovery. Maybe, the second time, you take things a little slower. What’s unusual about Beachy is that he’s had two Tommy Johns so close to one another. More ordinarily, there’s a separation of a handful of years. Maybe that means Beachy comes with greater risk. Or maybe the risk is lessened, because he’s only 28. It probably shouldn’t be ignored that Beachy’s own surgeon works alongside his new employer.

The Dodgers have a lot of money, and the Dodgers have a lot of pitching. Because they won’t be depending on Beachy, there’s not much for them to lose, and as far as the upside is concerned, here are Beachy’s ranks among starting pitchers from 2010 – 2013 with at least 200 innings thrown:

• ERA-: 86th percentile
• FIP-: 88th percentile
• xFIP-: 83rd percentile

Don’t worry about the specific numbers, or the specific percentiles. The point is that, before getting hurt, Beachy was outstanding. He was also one of the better stories in baseball, given how he’s risen. When Beachy’s been at his best, he’s pitched like an ace. No one should expect him to pitch like an ace going forward, but the neat thing about aces is there’s a lot of room for decline before they’re no longer helpful. Beachy, on balance, has pitched something like a No. 2. Maybe, on the other side of a couple Tommy John surgeries, he can look like a No. 3, or a No. 4. Such pitchers get paid, when they’re healthy free agents.

And maybe Beachy does nothing. Perhaps he’s actually all out of bullets. That risk is why Beachy settled for the contract he did. But you’re talking about one cheap year, with one cheap team option. Beachy will be paid a minimum of $2.75 million over one year, and his maximum is $8.75 million over two years. The Royals guaranteed Medlen a minimum of $8.5 million over two years, with a maximum of $27.5 million over three years. Beachy and Medlen are in similar places, and Medlen got a bigger guarantee from a team with far fewer resources. It makes the Dodgers’ deal look good.

And, look at the Dodgers. Specifically, look at their rotation. You know what you’ve got in Clayton Kershaw. You feel good about Hyun-Jin Ryu. Zack Greinke might have an elbow thing, and while he downplays the concerns, he’s a virtual lock to opt out of his contract after the season. Brandon McCarthy was just healthy all season, but he has a track record of not ever being that. Brett Anderson has started 32 major-league games in four years. Behind the five, Joe Wieland is potentially of some use, but he’s coming off his own operations. Zach Lee hasn’t improved as a prospect. Carlos Frias isn’t really considered a prospect.

One thing we know is that every team in baseball ought to accumulate starting depth. Another thing we know is that the Dodgers were in need of some more starting depth. And now this is the tricky thing about depth: players, generally, don’t want to be depth guys. You don’t convince good free agents to serve as sixth and seventh starters. You don’t trade for good starters only to stash them away. Ideally, there are prospects in the system, about ready to knock on the door. But a guy like Beachy provides an alternative. When you sign a good pitcher coming off surgery, that’s a good way to maximize the depth upside.

Think about the currently-available depth. Chris Young is a free agent. Kevin Correia is a free agent. There are some other guys on the minor-league side. Healthy Beachy blows them away, and because healthy Beachy is still a few months off, the Dodgers can bring him in and wait to make a decision. While that means Beachy isn’t depth for April or May, that’s just a fraction of the year, and there are other insurance arms. Said Farhan Zaidi:

“By the time he’s ramping up, our starting pitching depth might look different than it does now,” Zaidi said.

It’s really difficult to have a highly-talented player serve as a depth piece. “Quality depth” usually resembles a group of 1-2 WAR bats and arms. Beachy could be more like a 3-WAR pitcher. He could be more like a 4-WAR pitcher! He could also be a 0-WAR pitcher, but it’s the upside that makes these moves so appealing. With a Beachy, or with a Medlen, you accumulate depth, and you accumulate strong talent. These are the only good major leaguers willing to sign contracts that don’t make them immediate regulars.

It made too much sense for the Dodgers not to commit. That would’ve been true even without the second year, but with the second year, which would pay Beachy between $3 – 6 million, there’s an affordable arm who might be able to step in for Greinke. Or Anderson. Or whoever. The history makes Beachy a health risk, but the Dodgers are so loaded they can roll the dice on health risks, because the talent is present, and you figure one or two or three of the guys will stay healthy. Most teams act conservatively around injured players. No one wants to pay seven figures to someone who isn’t doing anything on the field. The Dodgers can absorb it. The Dodgers somehow got a better deal on their reclamation project than the Royals did on theirs. It’s good to be LA.

You want to root for the little guy. It comes naturally, and compared to the little guy, the Dodgers are the very face of evil. The Dodgers aren’t a team that needs to be finding quality bargains in the market basement. But, it’s our obligation to talk about and analyze what’s happening. And even if you can’t bring yourself to root for the Dodgers, you can damn sure root for Brandon Beachy. He is, after all, getting what he wanted.