Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/2/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Let’s get this party started.

Mike D: What’re the chances Soler is traded by the deadline for pitching this year?

Dave Cameron: Would guess that either he or Schwarber don’t finish the year in Chicago. The one who doesn’t hit will probably be trade bait.

Mike D: How do some non-speed guys always beat BABIP averages?

Dave Cameron: They hit the ball hard and on a line. Guys like Miguel Cabrera square up a lot of pitches, and hard-hit balls are caught less often than balls that are hit up or down. Guys who can avoid infield flies also don’t give away free in-play outs.

Bruce Bochy: Chris Heston or Clayton Blackburn when Matt Cain inevitably hits the DL?

Dave Cameron: Heston.

RK: Thoughts on the S. Perez contract?

Dave Cameron: Not exactly a bargain for KC, given Perez’s workload may very well have him worn down before the new years kick in.

Dave Cameron: But given that they probably didn’t want to have a disgruntled catcher in the clubhouse, maybe worth doing. Hard to say.

Joe: Do any of the available OF’s make sense for the Orioles? They currently have only one OF (Jones) who has ever played a full season in the big leagues.

Dave Cameron: Trading for Bruce seems inevitable.

primantis: Dave, if you were made GM of the Royals today would you tell Ned Yost he can’t bat Escobar leadoff?

Dave Cameron: I think telling the manager what he can and can’t do is a good way to dissolve that relationship.

Ryan: I have a bad feeling that Bronson Arroyo starts the season in the Nats’ rotation instead of one of Ross/Roark. Please tell me I’m wrong?

Dave Cameron: It probably doesn’t matter. If he’s good, then hey, neat. If he’s bad, then the young kid will be up quickly, and innings limits probably mean neither of those guys were going to make 30+ starts and be available for the postseason anyway.

Ethan: Do you think that top pitchers or top hitters are more likely to have been top prospects coming up? While a lot of top pitching prospects flop, it seems like it’s harder for mid level pitching prospects to make the jump to ace than it is for a mid level position player prospect to become a star.

Dave Cameron: I think the opposite is true, actually. Guys like Kluber and Keuchel happen more often on the pitching side of things.

Andrew: Hi Dave, first off wanted to say that THT article was fantastic, so thanks. My question is regarding relievers and leverage. I understand implicitly what is meant by a high leverage situation, but can’t really articulate it. How would you define leverage, in a baseball sense?

Dave Cameron: The outcome of the play has a larger impact on the outcome of the game than the same play at another time.

Guest: Even Astros beat writers seem to be discounting Mike Fiers, but I’m not really sure why. He was a really solid major league pitcher last year, and he even threw a no hitter which usually gets peoples attentions. What do you expect out of him this year? Where does he rank as a number 4 in baseball?

Dave Cameron: He throws 88-92 and doesn’t have any kind of dominating off-speed pitch. He’ll always be discounted relative to guys with better stuff.

Joe: On the Free Agent Tracker, there’s a column for 2016 WAR. Which projection is this using? It appears to be inconsistent with Steamer, ZiPS, and the Depth Charts.

Dave Cameron: It’s using Steamer/600, so it’s showing what that projection believes a player would do with full season playing time.

lunch: what are the chances someone other than trout or harper puts up the highest WAR total for 2016? who might it be?

Dave Cameron: Wouldn’t be that hard for me to see a guy like Machado, Correa, or even Mookie Betts having an absolutely monster year. Lots of great young talent out there.

Bloomquist: I want the Mariners to be really good sooooooo bad, but I am terrified about bandwagoners when they do. Seahawk mania has been so unavoidable these last few years, any fraction of that with the Mariners would drive me crazy because so few people have cared over the last 10 years while I have been suffering and hoping. Advice?

Dave Cameron: Why does other people getting interested in the thing you’re interested in reduce your enjoyment of the thing?

Hank G.: I’ve read or heard a number of people say that the current baseball salary structure, with its “cost-controlled” talent, is necessary to allow smaller market teams a chance to be competitive. Even if this were true (and I don’t think it is), why should young players, many who will never get the chance to sign a market-rate contract, be the ones who should have to make the sacrifice to make baseball competitive? Can you think of an alternative structure that would allow younger players to get paid more in line with their value and still allow smaller market teams a chance to compete?

Dave Cameron: If you don’t think it’s true, think of it this way; if every player made something closer to their market value, how would teams with $100 million payrolls compete with teams with $200 million payrolls?

Dave Cameron: In an efficient market, budget would be a significantly larger factor in determining the winner.

klenphak: march predictions for manager of the year?

Dave Cameron: John Farrell and Dusty Baker.

Bork: Who would be the most hilarious/unexpected player to do a retirement tour such as Jeter and Mo’s?

Dave Cameron: Muni Kawasaki.

David: Do you think there’s that big a gap between Donaldson and Bautista/Edwin/Tulo?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Zorak: If you could, would you go to the game in Cuba?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it sounds like a blast.

Shishito Pepper: Do you buy the Indians at > 50% for the division?

Dave Cameron: No, I think our projections are probably overrating their pitchers a bit.

Forsyth: Given that we now have batted ball velocity, are we going to see any stats that “normalize” a hitters triple slash line based on batted ball rates, BB rates, and ISO? Kind of like FIP or xFIP is for pitchers?

Dave Cameron: The point of FIP was never to strip luck out of the results, but to separate a pitcher’s performance from his fielders. Hitters don’t hit to a consistent defense, so there isn’t the same need to extract their performance from the overall totals. Statcast data will give us new tools for evaluating hitters, but we don’t really need FIP for hitters.

Sam: Sean Newcomb a mid-season callup for the Braves?

Dave Cameron: Let’s see him figure out where the strike zone is first.

Julio Pepper: It seems like the Cubs should be trading Schwarber ASAP – will his stock ever be higher? Could they get Carrasco for him? Or if not, Salazar + Bradley or Zimmer?

Dave Cameron: His stock isn’t that high.

Gary: I saw on Twitter that the Os asked about Markakis and the Braves said no. Why wouldn’t Braves want to dump his contract?

Dave Cameron: They think he’s good. I disagree.

Raza: Do you think Dominic Brown can breakout this year in Toronto ?

Dave Cameron: Never say never, but moderate power/low contact/bad defense isn’t a good skillset. He was a wildly overrated prospect, in the same mold as Delmon Young.

john: Got in late today… just saw your answer of Schwarber or Soler not making it through the year. Why? And what do Cubs get back in your mind? I disagree with you myself, as both will be needed next year when Fowler is gone. Betting on Almora for next year isn’t a sure thing. Please help

Dave Cameron: The Cubs aren’t going to move Heyward to CF in year two of his deal, especially as his defense will decline as he ages. You have to assume he’s locked in at RF for the next three years, at least. The Cubs just don’t have room for both Schwarber and Soler unless Rizzo blows out his knee or something.

Nick: Hey Dave, I have to write a paper for my economics class about discrimination (something with numerical data). Planning on writing about baseball. Any suggestions/papers I can reference? Was brainstorming about race & compensation vs. career WAR, maybe why there are so few african american baseball players, lack of women as coaches… not entirely sure. I’d love to hear what you think. Thanks!

Dave Cameron: Let’s open this up to the audience; suggestions for Nick welcome.

Brett W: Should I pay down my 15-year mortgage ahead of schedule or increase my retirement contributions to move myself ahead of schedule on that point?

Dave Cameron: Depends on your situation specifically, but in general, save for retirement; there is no retirement loan that you can take out if you fail to prepare adequately for your non-working years.

The Hamburglar: A few chats ago you mentioned that in lieu of having a FG Spring Training trip, you guys were going to do something to be announced this summer. Is this still happening, and can we expect an announcement soonish?

Dave Cameron: Yes, it’s still happening. It will take place in NY in mid-June. We’ll announce it in the next few weeks, I’d imagine.

brad: Ned yost gets lot of criticism for lineup construction, particularly Gordon towards bottom third of lineup. Can a good case be made that putting a good hitter 7th balances lineup so there aren’t three bad hitters back to back to back, thus avoiding easy innings for opposing pitcher?

Dave Cameron: That value is given back by also reducing the odds of bunching your hits together, which is what scores runs. It’s better to get three hits in one inning, then go 1-2-3 for the next two innings, then to get one hit per inning.

Marc: Thoughts on the Chapman suspension?

Dave Cameron: Pretty close to the max that MLB could have imposed; no way the union would have gone for a suspension long enough to cost him free agency at the end of the year. Given that limitation, seems fair.

Brian A: Has the traditional pitching matchup ever been studied before? That is, it’s always 1 vs. 1, 2 vs. 2, and so on. All things being equal, each side has a 50% chance of winning. Why not go 1 vs. 2, 2 vs. 3 and so on. Get better odds for every game, and then punt the 5 vs. 1 (their ace) game.

Dave Cameron: The 1 vs 1 lasts for exactly one day. By the second series of the season, the differences in schedules mean that the order of the rotation is meaningless in match-ups.

Chris: Bryce Harper is going to get one half a billion dollars, at what point do salaries become so high that the government realizes they need to strip their tax exemption?

Dave Cameron: You put two sentences together that have nothing to do with each other.

Ned: Why have rebuilding teams become such a hot topic this year? And how do people who think rebuilding is bad for the game propose to overhaul the draft process?

Dave Cameron: The CBA expires in 8 months. There are parties who are interested in gaining leverage in those negotiations, and they are feeding their agenda to reporters to get their view into the public eye.

Bork: Look into your crystal ball. How much does the luxury tax floor go up in the next round of the CBA negotiations?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine it will jump over $200 million. Maybe $210M, something like that.

Curtis: What is your current opinion on the 162 game schedule?

Dave Cameron: I’d be in favor of a shorter schedule.

Joel: If you wanted to go to the World Series, would you have to pay or could you get a credential and watch for free?

Dave Cameron: We get credentialed for the World Series every year, but it makes a lot more sense for David Laurila or Eno Sarris to go than for me, since they do most of our in-person reporting.

Kylo Ren: DUSTY BAKER FOR MANAGER OF THE YEAR ARE YOU MAD

Dave Cameron: The Nationals could easily win the NL East, and since they didn’t make any big off-season acquisitions, it will be an easy narrative to credit the improvement to the change in managers. Plus, the media loves Dusty.

Dave Cameron: Maddon will have his talent held against him.

SHS: How close in approximate trade value do think 4 years of Will Smith might be compare to the 5 years of Ken Giles and Two years of Craig Kimbrel?

Dave Cameron: A good bit less. Teams pay a closer premium.

Bip: Delmon Young was a crazy good hitter in the minors though, and Brown wasn’t even that, was he?

Dave Cameron: Not really; he didn’t actually hit that well in AAA, he was just very young for the level. His career AAA OPS was .791.

Geebs: Have you always thought that Dominic Brown was an overrated prospect or did you reassess once he made it to the majors and you got a better look at his skill set?

Dave Cameron: I was never a huge fan. That type of player is the one that is most often overrated on prospect lists.

Dave Cameron: I’d throw Jesus Montero into that mix too.

Phillies113: I disagree that Brown was wildly overrated. I think the Phillies colossally screwed up his development and ruined his confidence, constantly calling him up and sending him down whenever he hinted at being bad. He had the talent, but once his confidence got shaken, his skills deteriorated to where they are now.

Dave Cameron: It’s possible, though you wouldn’t think that defense should be affected that much, and part of why he sucks is that he can’t play the outfield. Given his defensive limitations, he’d have had to be a monster hitter to justify the hype, and he just never really looked like a monster hitter.

Doug: You said in an article that the Angels need a spring trade, any specific players you’d like to see them target?

Dave Cameron: Chris Coghlan would have made a lot of sense for them.

Dave Cameron: I’m not sure why they’re being so passive.

Mike S.: Re: Nick’s Q. How about looking at player earnings vs. country of origin. Control for WAR and player age etc. and you’ve got a nice little paper on foreign worker discrimination.

Dave Cameron: I’m pretty sure Matt Swartz did that for THT last year.

BakedBean: Thoughts on the impending Reyes suspension? I think the book is going to come down extra hard, like half-full season suspension.

Dave Cameron: Agreed. I don’t think we’re going to see Reyes play in 2016.

Biscuit: Relocating the family across country to Seattle for a new job opportunity (with a healthy retirement plan). My wife has about 100K in retirement funds and will get about 55K lump sum severance pay. We have a 1 year old daughter that she’d love to stay home with until school age. What do you think about taking her retirement and severance (plus about 40K equity) and sinking it into a house, allowing me to pay the mortgage and her to stay home?

Dave Cameron: This is a lifestyle question more than a financial one, but in general, I think taking your retirement savings and sinking it into a house is a bad idea.

Dave Cameron: But it depends entirely on how much value you place on having her home during those years.

a eskpert: You might look at physical size of athletes, Nick. We often discuss how scouts/front offices might have bias towards Taller pitchers and indirectly for taller hitters through their preference for power over defense. Perhaps they are undercompensated relative to their performance?

Dave Cameron: There have been a lot of studies about height in regards to pitchers, but I haven’t seen one with position players. Could be a fun study.

Sirras: Re: tax exempt status – accountant speaking. The players are still getting W-2 forms. They put that on their personal returns. That half-billion Bryce may get is absolutely taxable income

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that question was referring to the owner’s anti-trust exemption, I think. But it’s weird how people see raises in player salaries and immediately think that it’s not the result of huge increases in revenues for the even richer owners.

Joe: Since chapman is set to lose ~35 days of service time would a 15 day dl stint cause him to miss free agency?

Dave Cameron: No, you get service time while on the DL.

Sean : What do you think are the percent chances that a salary floor is imposed?

Dave Cameron: Almost zero.

el gasino: if you could take the best hitters and put them on a team with the worst pitchers, then take the best pitchers and put them on a team with the worst hitters (but they play the best defense), who would win more games?

Dave Cameron: Assuming the hitters can also play defense, the hitters. Position players are more valuable.

Bork: Wouldn’t Farrell have his talent held against him too? Panda/Hanley returning to non-terrible status alone will be a boon to the Red Sox.

Dave Cameron: If those guys return to form, he’ll get credit for helping rejuvenate them.

Nelson: Why does MLB need to punish players for off-field activities (RE: Chapman) more than the law punishes them?

Dave Cameron: Because they represent the league, and their public actions have a direct impact on the league’s ability to promote itself. Anyone who has an employer knows there are things we can’t do that are not illegal. I could do a huge number of things that I wouldn’t get arrested for but would still get me fired from FanGraphs.

Johnny5Alive: The bryce harper question – at what point will salaries get so high (and concomitant with that, prices) – that people start to tune out? My dad stopped watching baseball when guys started making millions, and while I didn’t understand it at the time, some of these salaries are getting ridiculous.

Dave Cameron: So you’re okay with the billionaires who own the team making more money, but not the millionaires you actually watch play on a nightly basis? The money is going to go somewhere.

Matt E G: What’s the best way to tell if a player that consistently has a high BABIP is not getting lucky? Or is a high BABIP always luck even if it is consistently high?

Dave Cameron: The primary drivers of sustained high BABIPs are batted ball profiles and speed. So if a guy hits a ton of line drives, he can probably run a .350 BABIP for a long time. Or if a guy can bunt and has great bat control to use the whole field, and can beat out infield singles, same thing. But if you have a pull-heavy flyball guy running a .325+ BABIP, that’s probably not going to last.

Scott: Have you taken a look at the Vegas O/U win projections? Any that stand out to you as a good bet?

Dave Cameron: I think they had the Dodgers at 89; I’d happily take the over on that.

Kimball: For Nick, might be interesting to examine the persistence of homogeneity in management (both field and FO) despite the diversification of the workforce. Lots of non-sports research out there; on the sports side it’s more anecdotal/arm-chair analysis.

Russell: Nick paper suggestion; Not sure what time frame you need to work with, but it seems like there should be a decent and interesting amount of info about salary structure/other quantifiable changes to the game around the time of integration.

Zorak: Another interesting research question is one that’s a hot topic in Hockey analytics – what effect birth month has on draft position/signing/etc. 10 months makes a huge difference when you’re 18 in terms of physical ability.

Bork: The only loser in the whole millionaires vs billionaires on who should get the money is the fans. The last thing both of those sides want is for fans to get a break and pay less for tickets/food/etc

Dave Cameron: You do realize that the huge increase in revenues lately has to do with TV contracts, right? For a lot of teams, ticket sales and concessions are an after thought now.

Sean : I don’t understand why people have such a hard time with athletes’ salaries. All that money comes from money that people are willing to pay to watch. There’s nothing unfair with that. The issues come from tax-related issues, like tax-exempt status, public-funded stadiums, etc. that impact locals without a say in the manner.

Dave Cameron: Looks like I answered a question before I published it. Whoops!

Justin: Boil down the majority we need to know of personal finance, into a short answer.

Dave Cameron: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/09/16/this-4×6-index-card-has-all-the-financial-advice-youll-ever-need/

Kylo Ren: I don’t know why you’re so low on Schwarber’s bat.

Dave Cameron: Pull-heavy/low contact combination means that 2015 is probably something closer to his ceiling than it would be with most players his age. That doesn’t make him worthless, but you can’t project him for the same level of improvement as you can with other young hitters.

Johnny5Alive: I understand the money has to go somewhere. But, the owners aren’t going to take less. The higher the salaries, the higher the cost. Right now, average cost for 4 to go to a game is over $200, which maybe doesn’t seem like much. But when more and more contracts start reaching in the hundreds of millions, how much will that cost go up? And what is the breaking point, where people just watch at home? Is that where we are headed?

Dave Cameron: You have causation wrong. Ticket prices aren’t going up because of player salaries; ticket prices are going up because the market has set those prices as the clearing price at which teams can make money selling tickets to their events. And then they determine how much to pay their players based on their revenues. If you want ticket prices to come down, you need to figure out how to get fewer people to want to go see baseball games in person. Demand drives pricing, not the cost of goods.

Dave Cameron: Alright, I’m off to do some writing. Thanks for hanging out everyone.