Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 4/26/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Look forward to seeing all the DC-metro folks at Pitch Talks on Monday night.

Dave Cameron: Let’s talk baseball (or children’s books) for the next hour.

Scott: I think Gurriel read your article about the Astros needing a first baseman.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’ve noticed. That said, it’s basically all a .500 BABIP; he still doesn’t walk and has modest power.

ChiSox2020: Dave can you please rank the top 5 White Sox pitchers trade values? (Exclude Rodon since he won’t be traded)

Dave Cameron: 1. Quintana
2. Jones
3. Robertson
4. Gonzalez
5. Holland

Lauren: is there anything about the Diamondbacks and Rockies’ early success that seems sustainable?

Dave Cameron: The Rockies bullpen looks legitimately excellent, and was their biggest problem last year. If these guys can continue to hold leads most of the year, that’s a pretty significant swing for COL.

Rick: Dave, I know you arent the biggest believer of Schwarber but so far it seems like pitchers are pitching around Schwarber even though Kris Bryant and Rizzo are behind him. What would it take for you to change your stance? Is a .260/.360/.480 slash line out of the question?

Dave Cameron: Well, he’s currently hitting .224/.359/.395, so I don’t know why getting “pitched around” would cause me to re-evaluate anything. And no, that slash line is almost exactly what I expect from him. That’s the left-handed Mike Napoli comp I’ve been using.

Big Tuna: Are you more concerned by the slow starts of Gausman, Maeda or neither?

Dave Cameron: Gausman just isn’t that great, so I don’t think his slow start is concerning; just a symptom of his limitations. Maeda’s medicals were apparently awful before LAD signed him, so he’s always going to be a bit of a concern.

Big Tuna: Do you buy the Yonder Alonso launch angle narrative as one that changes his outlook as a player?

Dave Cameron: It’s pretty clear that a hitter can change his power output by implementing these adjustments. The drop in GB% isn’t an accident.

Larry: Concerned about Swanson?

Dave Cameron: Yeah. Last year’s BABIP masked a lot of offensive flaws. He’ll probably be fine long term, but he wasn’t ready to be as good as ATL hoped.

Seven Costanza: Having Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza bat 1-2 every single game has to be the worst 1-2 punch in baseball, right? Even if they were batting their projections (which they aren’t), it still seems like it would be the worst.

Dave Cameron: Well, Reds aren’t really trying to win this year. Getting young guys ABs in a throwaway year is probably more valuable than optimal batting order.

Generic Sports Fan: Let’s get the Bellinger question out of the way: To me he seems a lot like Joc Pedersen when he came up, being a three true outcomes type player. What does he need to do to show the Dodgers he has a different skill set than what they’ve already got?

Dave Cameron: Joc Pederson is good. You don’t need a different skillset.

Dave Cameron: Having more Joc Pedersons makes the team better.

Jack C.: Crazy and wild hypothetical. Who says ‘no’ in this mega deal? Trout to NYY for Torres, Frazier, Rutherford, Mateo, and Andujar. Makes some sense to me I think? The Yankees don’t touch their MLB roster and the Angels basically become the #1 system in baseball in one trade. On the surface, I think win-win.

Dave Cameron: The Angels wouldn’t lend you Mike Trout for a week for that offer.

Dave Cameron: He’s worth *so much more* than that.

John: Hey Dave, thanks for chatting. Who would you rank as the five best defensive players right now (non-catcher division)?

Dave Cameron: Simmons, Kiermaier, Hamilton, Crawford, then maybe Pillar or Lindor.

Couch: In regards to Cubs starters velocity drop. If it is because the Cubs delayed and or slow down their spring training routine, is it worth the risk of getting off to a slow start to the season? Or perhaps messing up the pitcher’s mechanics/routine?

Dave Cameron: I think they have a pretty comfortable cushion in the NL Central. If they think this will have a real difference in October, it might be worth it.

Pat G: Hey Dave, thanks for taking the time to chat with us! Do you think Amed Rosario is closer to Lindor (immediate stud) or Russell (tool bag that always leaves a little more to be desired from statistical production)?

Dave Cameron: Russell.

Wright: I know the Coghlan play was awesome but what was Yadi suppose to do in that situation? He looks like he gets the ball and can’t try to reach up an attempt to make the tag because he might just kill Coghlan

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s a no-win play for the catcher.

Erik: With the Giants stumbling, there looks to be a very interesting race for the second NL wild card, with the Cardinals, Rockies, and Diamondbacks all having withing a 34 and 39% chance of making the playoffs. Who would you pick out of those three? Or do you see the Giants recovering despite Bumgarner’s injury?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably still take STL out of that group.

The Average Sports Fan: Is there a market for Jurrickson Profar? It seems there is not PT for him in Texas.

Dave Cameron: He’s nuked his trade value at this point.

Dave Cameron: Someone would maybe give you an A-ball arm or something, but he’s not bringing back anything worthwhile.

Pie: Yuli Gurriel really turned his hitting profile around almost the second your article on him posted. Do you think the Astro’s still need to think long term about 1B, or do you view him as a viable starter for the rest of season?

Dave Cameron: I think a team with WS aspirations should do better than an average-power/no walk 1B.

Hannah Hochevar: Scared about Danny Duffy’s regression in re velocity and contact rates. Is there a blanky I can use?

Dave Cameron: Maybe things turn around soon, but this does not look like KC’s year.

Noah: Can you help explain the difference between the “pitchF/X” stats and the unspecified ones? For example, every player card has a “pitchF/X Plate Discipline” leaderboard along with one just labeled “Plate Discipline.” How are the two different? Is one particularly reliable?

Dave Cameron: The PITCHF/x tab is the tracking data we get from BAM, which is now powered by Statcast. The non-labeled ones are manually recorded by the stringers from BIS. In general, I use the PITCHf/x (now Statcast) ones.

Evil Goatee Dave: What are you doing with all of the time you’ve saved this year on the new no-pitch intentional walk rule?

Dave Cameron: I’m going from chat to chat making snarky comments about a rule change that makes sense.

Jerry DiPoto: What do the Mariners do now after the Felix & Haniger injuries? Seems like the offense can survive since Segura is back. But that pitching????? Seems like offense is elite with Haniger but still above average without him

Dave Cameron: Have to see how severe the injuries are. If Felix’s dead arm turns out to be a real injury that shelves him for most of the year, I don’t see how they make the playoffs.

Ned Yost: Is it a super hot take that the Astros are the best team in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Well, they aren’t better than the Cubs or Dodgers, so sure.

Bat Flipper: Any Eric Thames HR, WRC+ predictions so I can compare with the other writers?

Dave Cameron: Rest of season? I’ll go 26 HR and a 132 wRC+.

Beel: As a fan of a rebuilding team (White Sox), should I be unhappy about their early winning record? Indifferent? I know it’s too early to worry about draft position, but every game counts and I think back to 2014 where the White Sox were one loss out of being in position to draft Benintendi the following year.

Dave Cameron: In general, you’re better off winning games if it means your players are creating more value for themselves than hoping for a higher pick.

Pikup Androppov: So Jeb! Bush and Jeets bought the Marlins… gotta do a better job than Loria did right?

Dave Cameron: The story really got oversold; they entered into an agreed-upon price if they can raise the funds, but neither of them has $1.3 billion, so it’s nowhere near a sale yet.

caesarsolid: If Thames keeps up anywhere near his current ISO, how long before suspicions about PEDs drowns out his production?

Dave Cameron: People who think this is about PEDs don’t know what they’re talking about.

Shawn: Chances Cody Bellinger stays up and never goes back down? What position does he play mostly this year if he stays up?

Dave Cameron: He’s better than Andrew Toles, so I could see him sticking as the regular LF.

Meowmix: Are you buying Jason Heywards improvements at the plate?

Dave Cameron: He had six years of quality hitting at the MLB level. It would have been surprising if he didn’t bounce back.

Grover: Gallo must be ticketed for LF upon Beltre’s return, right? It’s not like their current left field platoon is doing much. Doesn’t Gallo deserve a prolonged look at this point?

Dave Cameron: Either that or put Choo back in the OF and DH Napoli.

CWC: How’d the results of your Eric Thames poll compare to what you expected? Or is there a whole post coming here?

Dave Cameron: It’s about what I expected, but I’m of the opinion that the consensus is still way too low. I’d pay something close to double what the crowd says they’d pay.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Would you actually be interested in watching the HR derby if Stanton, Judge, Gallo, Sano were all part of it? Plus the youth in there is exciting!

Dave Cameron: The event itself is still terrible.

Dave Cameron: But it would at least get me to watch the first round, maybe.

Reginald Denton III: Any idea where I can find total homers by year in MLB? Trying to demonstrate for a coworker the surge in homers the last two years.

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&…

Dave Cameron: Just showing him raw totals won’t help that much, though, because you have to account for rise in K% too. You can use the standard tab on that page to get the data you need to calculate HR/Contacted Ball, and that’s way way up.

Collin: I get that this is the Eric Thames show, but lets remember that 8 of his 11 home runs have come against the Reds(triple A pitching pretty much). Still impressive, but he might be the hitter who simply punishes below average pitching.

Dave Cameron: There are basically no examples of players who could crush mediocre pitching at this level and couldn’t also hold their own against good pitchers.

Sonny: How much would you, Dave Cameron, pay Eric Thames right now?

Dave Cameron: That post will be up either later this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

Sim: Hosmer is looking no where near what he has been in the past. Shed some light on how you think he will do the rest of the year.

Dave Cameron: He’ll be a league average hitter, roughly.

Dave Cameron: He’s just not that good.

Erik: What do you like more, baseball or analytics? I.e., which would you enjoy more, writing about basketball from an analytical perspective or writing about baseball without getting deeper than wins and RBI?

Dave Cameron: Could I write about baseball in a non-analytical way? I don’t think so. My brain just doesn’t work like that. I’m not Sam Miller.

Rick: Are there any AL teams besides the Blue Jays who’ve seriously diminished their playoff odds?

Dave Cameron: The Mariners. If Felix and Haniger’s injuries aren’t minor, they’re in a lot of trouble.

Evil Goatee Dave: Can I buy you lunch before Pitch Talks? Dinner afterwards?

Dave Cameron: The doors open a few hours before the show starts, so just come to the Howard Theatre early and I’ll hang out with everyone before the show. You won’t have to buy me food.

Brian: Dave i work as purchaser for national bookstore chain, what do you want to know about kids books , in exchange for do you think Meadows will get the call up in coming days or weeks?

Dave Cameron: Give me three books I should definitely be reading my two year old, and I’ll tell you that Meadows probably isn’t up until June.

Josh: Who has more trade value today, Ryan Braun or Eric Thames?

Dave Cameron: It’s Thames by a mile.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Braun is less than a month from 10/5 rights kicking in, and has sparked renewed speculation about being traded. He’s had a nice start – do you think someone not on his current no-trade list pulls the trigger and obtains him?

Dave Cameron: Sounds like he’s willing to waive his no-trade rights this summer, so 10/5 not a big deal.

Dave Cameron: It would be a bigger problem if he wanted to stay in MIL.

Daron: Are Statcast probabilities going to lead us towards eventually assigning a specific value to each hit regardless of the outcome? For example if a home run probability on a hit that went over the fence was 33%, is that hit that going to be weighted to a lower value than a non-home run that had a 90% probability of being a home run?

Dave Cameron: Depends entirely on the metric. If you’re building a forecasting tool, yes. If you’re building a past-value metric, no.

BrotherMan: What are some player tools that made you rethink 80 grade (eg Stanton power)?

Dave Cameron: Hamilton speed, Chapman velo.

Joey: Based on your Rockies and DBacks answer, you don’t feel the Dbacks early success is sustainable?

Dave Cameron: I think they’re a .500ish team.

Rick: Do like k/9 better than k%?

Dave Cameron: No.

Dave Cameron: I use K% pretty much exclusively.

Kevin: Dave, it is that time of year where very smart people that I listen to say that a 5 and 10 start has to be factored into a team’s record and must be included into a current forecast (say a .500 projected team now is forecasted to win 79 games). Don’t projection systems at the beginning of the season include this 5-10 stretch just like it has a 10-5 stretch at another point in the season?

Dave Cameron: Nope. That’s the gambler’s fallacy.

TBD: What’s up with Car Mar?

Dave Cameron: Hopefully looking around for a better nickname.

JWR: What would the Dave Cameron book look like? Any plans to write a book?

Dave Cameron: Not super interested in writing a book. Most of my friends who have done it have poured years of their lives into it, and I don’t feel like I have years of my life to give up.

Josh: How much does finding a value like Eric Thames accelerate the playoff contention timeline for a team like the Brewers? Would they be more inclined to look for prospects who are closer to the majors at this point if they decided to trade him?

Dave Cameron: If he turns out to be a true talent +4 WAR first baseman, it helps, but it’s only a two win change from what the pre-season projections suggested. It’s not like those two wins push them into contention.

JTT: I don’t remember who supplied the quote but some team exec on Maeda supposedly had “the worst medicals I’d ever seen”

Dave Cameron: That was me.

Dave Cameron: That’s what I was told when he signed.

Grand Admiral Braun: Conforto > Schwarber now and long-term?

Dave Cameron: As an overall player? Yeah.

JWR: Would you rather have a hitter with average Exit Velocity but perfect swing loft or top EV who hit more ground balls?

Dave Cameron: Well, depends on if the latter guy is open to changing his swing. But Eric Hosmer is example 1 of why EV at the wrong angle isn’t useful.

Mike M: Have you ever made it out to one of the last remaining Blockbusters in Bend?

Dave Cameron: I drive by it all the time. I don’t have any kind of DVD/Blu-Ray player, though, so no real need for me to go in.

JWR: Next year, Bellinger starts the season at __ for the Dodgers.

Dave Cameron: Left field.

Dave Cameron: Maybe he moves to 1B when Gonzalez is done.

…: Is Schwarber the ultimate three true outcomes guy?

Dave Cameron: No, that’s Gallo.

Mike: Any thoughts on the ESPN layoffs? Tough day for them.

Dave Cameron: Never enjoy see people losing their jobs. Always tough.

#TheRallyMullet : Chances #Nats get a mega deal done for Harper? Thanks

Dave Cameron: 0.1%

Mookie: Just curious, what makes you say Gausman isn’t great? The stuff seems like it’s there, high velo fastball and a great split-change per the splitter/cutter article yesterday. Command issues? Consistency?

Dave Cameron: Average-ish K%, lousy contact manager, iffy command.

Dave Cameron: He’s not bad. He’s just not great.

Monsignor Martinez: Do you think Aaron Judge’s talent at the plate is more like a RH Joc Pederson or Giancarlo Stanton?

Dave Cameron: Maybe between them?

Eric: Is the general rule for a fake Mike Trout trade “if you think you’ve got something that works, double it”? Can’t imagine a realistic package for him. What do you think one looks like?

Dave Cameron: General rule: you can’t do it with minor leaguers.

Dave Cameron: A Trout trade has to be based around another MLB All-Star.

Dave Cameron: Plus a bunch of other stuff.

El Duderino: Re: Mike Trout Trade. I truly think you are 100% wrong on that. While I know the Angels would want MLB talent instead of just prospects. But he isn’t worth “SO MUCH MORE” and “Wouldn’t lend him for a week for that offer”. Angels know they aren’t going anywhere even with Mike Trout

Dave Cameron: Okay, let’s take me out of it. Poll time.

Dave Cameron:

J.P.: Nationals’ closer by the end of season: Kelley, Glover or New Comer?

Dave Cameron: New guy.

Julio: Is there still hope for Jurickson Profar given his age?

Dave Cameron: Sure. There are guys who figure it out at 30.

Dave Cameron: But he hasn’t shown anything of promise in the last few years.

Eli: How much do you buy Headley and Castro’s blistering start? For that matter, since you were more bullish on the Yankees in general, has anything about your opinion changed with their strong start?

Dave Cameron: They won’t keep this up, but neither will Bird, and Sanchez will come back. I think NYY’s offense is solidly above average, the defense is fine, and the pitching was underrated.

Dave Cameron: Okay, I think we can say we have a representative sample now. Sorry, El Duderino; you’re down 89/11.

Dave Cameron: And I might drug test the 11%.

Matt: Coghlan play was awesome. Now that that’s out of the way – that was an incredibly dangerous play, and the outcome of Coghlan not being injured had to be in the 95th percentile, no?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, crazy high risk. It was fun to watch but that’s because I’m not Chris Coghlan’s mom.

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t advise that as a regular thing.

J: White Sox made a mistake holding Quintana or were right to wait it out?

Dave Cameron: Mistake.

Josh: Do projections take schedule into consideration? For example, since STL plays the Reds and Brewers 38 times, does that increase their projected record beyond the RS and RA numbers as opposed to if they were in a tougher division?

Dave Cameron: On our Playoff Odds page, yes, schedule is included.

Dan: Going to Pitch Talks in KC tomorrow night–should I have questions ready for Passan?

Dave Cameron: Sure, but make sure you say it as Pass-en, not puh-sawn. He is not a fan of having his last name mispronounced.

Jeff: I don’t know when you start taking submissions, but I would nominate Travis Sawchik’s article on ballpark design as an early contender for best of the year. Not traditional analysis per se but strikes me as representing what people love about Fangraphs: an interesting take on a baseball subject I don’t think too much about.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that piece was great.

Alex: Am I crazy for actually liking the Rays’ offense and thinking it could be good enough to hang around in the AL East?

Dave Cameron: No.

Snarfle: A friend asked me about the new IBB rule, and I said to imagine if this is how it had always been, and they proposed changing it to make the pitcher throw four balls. Would you say, “finally! It’s how it should have been all along!”

Dave Cameron: Right. There is no value added in having to actually watch the IBB occur.

CubFan: If CWS trade both Jones and Robertson then who the heck closes…..or do they even care since they’re rebuilding?

Dave Cameron: You don’t care about saves in a rebuilding year.

Jono: 28 years ago today Kevin Mitchell made a barehanded catch- what’s the big deal with that catch? Fans make barehanded catches in the stands every day.

Dave Cameron: Not on the run.

#BantheWave: “It’d be surprising if [Heyward] didn’t bounce back?” You didn’t have the guts to say this before! These kind of responses are why you come off like a jerk

Dave Cameron: Feel free to google my name and Jason Heyward. I’ve consistently argued that his track record suggests that last year was the aberration.

Monsignor Martinez: I think the consensus on Thames has a bit of realism to it; most teams are going to offer less than the highest bidder.

Dave Cameron: Sure. But there were twice as many people saying he’s worth $5-$10M per year, which is basically indefensible, as saying he’s worth $20-$25M per year, which is probably the right range.

Mike Trout of Eating: Hello! I was interesting in look at previous years Steamer projections for a school project, but I struggled to find them anywhere online. Do you know where/if I would be able to find them? Thank you!

Dave Cameron: Hit up Jared Cross. He can provide them for you.

Dave Cameron: He’s @steamerpro on Twitter, or his contact info is on steamerprojections.com

Lane: Any chance Batted Ball Data will be available on the minor league leaderboards. Good stuff there

Dave Cameron: Yes, that’s coming soon.

Robin: Do you have a good argument why MLBtv won’t let you stream local games? Every argument I’ve seen really doesn’t hold much water

Dave Cameron: Cable companies paid MLB teams huge amounts of money to force you to buy cable to watch local baseball.

Dave Cameron: That’s the answer.

Josh: Jeff says he’s intentionally dumb about hockey to maximize his pure enjoyment of the sport from a fan’s perspective. Do you do this with any other sports, or does your analytical way of thinking prevent this from happening?

Dave Cameron: I don’t really watch much in the way of other sports.

Kevin: I don’t know what gambler’s fallacy means?

Dave Cameron: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Mike: You occasionally point out that someone is ignoring regression or is guilty of the gambler’s fallacy. What errors do people make in thinking about baseball that they also make in thinking about (say) politics or health?

Dave Cameron: Confirmation bias is the main one. it’s pervasive. Almost everyone gives in to believing that data that supports their pre-existing belief is real, and ignoring data that goes against it.

Kevin: Sorry, hit that too fast. Are you saying that rather than thinking a coin will be 50 heads and 50 tails over 100 flips no matter what happens….that instead I should now assume 8 heads and 2 tails do not affect the next 90 coin flips? So, I can now expect 53 heads and 47 tails in 100?

Dave Cameron: Exactly.

Dave Cameron: Take it to its logical extreme; if you flipped heads 50 times in a row, would you then expect 50 straight tails to balance things out? No, you’d be like “who gave me a weighted coin?”

Mike Trout of Eating: do you have any suggestions for programmers/data scientists who want to get into baseball but are not really interested in being a writer first? Is it even possible without knowing anyone in baseball?

Dave Cameron: If you want to work for a team, build something that they could use. Whip up a model that predicts something about a player’s future based on some data set. Show them that you can code.

Matt: Your poll options are loaded and biased. “Fair” is a mediocre “yes” response, and “LOL” is an exaggerated “no” response.

Dave Cameron: Well, to be fair, the poll was already biased by my answer.

Tim: wait a sec. Profar just turned 24, has never had the chance to play full time and we’re calling him a bust/no-trade value guy? I don’t think many would honestly agree with that assessment.

Dave Cameron: He has a 73 wRC+ in almost 700 big league PAs, can’t stay healthy, and is already arb-eligible. Even if he broke out, he’d be an FA not long after. There’s no real reason to give up anything for him.

Nolan: I think the comment above re: Yankees/Trout trade is less about the trade being fair and more about asking you to ditch the obvious and flagrant hyperbole. The Angels wouldn’t loan Trout to the Yankees for a week in exchange for 4 top 50 prospects?

Dave Cameron: The whole point of hyperbole is to make it obvious that it isn’t a serious comment.

Tim: Dave, looking to go to the Northern Oregon Coast this summer with family. Thoughts on Seaside vs. Manzanita vs. Astoria.

Dave Cameron: I grew up going to Seaside as a kid. I haven’t been there in 25+ years, but I liked it when I was 7.

Franklin: FAKE MIKE TROUT TRADE: Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Julio Urias for Mike Trout.

Dave Cameron: That’s something the Angels would actually have to consider.

Matt: Your answer re MLB.tv and local games isn’t entirely true. Most local games are broadcast on channels that can be gotten via antenna, no? In that case, its the advertising money. So why don’t they just show you the advertising?

Dave Cameron: No, very few MLB games are broadcast on over-the-air channels anymore. It’s almost all RSNs.

Relsh: Did you have a job before this that you weren’t passionate about, and if so how did you derive satisfaction from it?

Dave Cameron: I was a cost accountant before I was a baseball writer. I definitely wasn’t passionate about helping Hanes save money on their manufacturing goods, but I found motivation in helping my coworkers.

ljc: Re: the gambler’s fallacy questions. Committing the gambler’s fallacy is different from saying, “it is not surprising to have both a 5-10 stretch and a 10-5 stretch in a single season for a team we predicted would win X games.” However, the gambler’s fallacy comes into play when, given that a 5-10 or 10-5 stretch has already happened, you don’t adjust X.

Dave Cameron: Right. We’re not saying teams don’t have hot and cold streaks. We’re saying they’re not going to have X+1 hot streaks to make up for the cold streak they’ve already had.

working in baseball: after whipping a model, how do you actually make sure it makes it to some teams front office?

Dave Cameron: Send it to them. A lot of teams have MLB front office members on Twitter, or you can call up the team’s front desk and ask to be transferred to the office of someone in R+D.

mamsk: GIVE ME YOUR HOT TAKE JOEY GALLO THOUGHTS

Dave Cameron: HE’S STRONG.

YKnotDisco?!: RE Oregon Coast: If you are a fan of cheese, go to Tillamook. If you are a fan of Goonies, go to Astoria.

Dave Cameron: Tillamook also makes delicious yogurt and ice cream.

Dave Cameron: Like half of our refrigerator is Tillamook.

Dave Cameron: Okay, on that note, I’m going to call it a day.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out, everyone.