What Thames and Fielder Learned in Exile
Those who witnessed Eric Thames play in South Korea aren’t so surprised about his exploits in the States this April. After all, he was dubbed “God” there while playing for the NC Dinos in the southeastern port of Changwon.
Over the last couple of weeks my colleagues at FanGraphs have written about the scary, scarier, and scariest feats and underlying performance metrics of Thames.
On Tuesday, FanGraphs editor Dave Cameron asked the people what they would now pay for Thames. (FWIW, I chose to pay Thames $11-15 million of my make-believe dollars per annum. You can still vote!)
Thames continued to mash Tuesday evening…
And Thames continues to be drug tested…
Even if the Reds’ staff remains mostly equivalent to KBO pitching — kidding (kind of)! — Thames has been Bonds-ian over the first few weeks of the season.
Thames has always possessed power and bat speed. That was apparent in his first go-around in the majors. But he has returned as a much more selective hitter. Only Robbie Grossman is swinging at fewer out-of-zone pitches.
This is what a locked-in hitter’s heat map looks like. This is a data-density chart of all 92 of Thames’ swings this season via Baseball Savant:

So we know why Thames has been so good. We know what underlying processes are at work here thus far. But what happened while he was out of sight and out of mind?
There aren’t many of historical comps for a Thames’ road map and comeback. Perhaps there’s only one, actually — that of Cecil Fielder, who spent a year in Japan before return to the majors in 1990 as a bonafide slugger with a 51-homer campaign.
One shared feature of their respective experiences playing on the far side of the world? Fielder and Thames enjoyed everyday playing time, something which neither was afforded during their first experiences in the majors.
Fielder, a fourth-round pick in 1982 out of UNLV, debuted with the Blue Jays late in the 1985 season. He shuttled between Triple-A and the majors in 1986 and spent all of the 1987 and 1988 seasons with Toronto. But Fielder never reached more than 175 at-bats in a single season with the Blue Jays as a part-time DH and first baseman. Thames, meanwhile, received 290 plate appearances in the majors in 2011 with the Blue Jays and 290 in 2012 split between two teams. Again, not a regular job.
While attempting to understand how Fielder changed as a player before returning to the United States, I found a 1990 piece written by Thomas Boswell for the Washington Post.
Writes Boswell in it:
[Fielder] is first player to go to Japan so he could come back to America to be a star. He’s the only Japanese import welcome in Detroit…. After most of five seasons in the minors, and parts of four seasons with Toronto, Fielder was fed up. Tagged a platoon player in a talent-rich organization, he showed a self-confidence almost unique in baseball history. He expatriated himself, became a Hanshin Tiger and hit 38 home runs in 106 games.
“Usually, old guys go to Japan because they can’t bear to hang ’em up,” said Tigers teammate Alan Trammell. “Cecil went there [at 25] to get a chance to prove how good he really was. He may have opened some eyes among young players” …
“It’s tough for a platoon player to be patient when you know you have to do it now,” [Fielder] said. “If you get only eight or ten at-bats a week, that’s really pressure because if you don’t do well, it could be less the next week. When you play regularly, you let things happen.”
Like Thames, Fielder returned to the majors as a more selective hitter.
In his first run in the majors, from 1985 to -88, Fielder posted a 8.2% walk rate and 25.8% strikeout rate in 558 plate appearances. During his 1990-93 peak, in the first four years after his return, Fielder boosted his walk rate to 12.1% and cut his strikeout rate to 22.2%. From the WaPo piece:
“He’s totally different,” said Orioles Manager Frank Robinson. “He used to chase bad off-speed breaking balls in the dirt and fastballs up and in. Now he handles more types of pitches and he not only hits the ball out off the plate hard, but he hits it out of the park.”
“In Japan,” explained Trammell, “they don’t want the Americans to beat them. It’s a matter of pride. So they pitch around the good ones. Cecil had to learn to use the whole field and be patient, because he wasn’t going to get many good pitches to drive {to left field}.”
While Fielder’s experience occurred 30 years ago — and in a different pro league at that — perhaps there is still something significant instructive worth considering as it relates to Thames. Writing for USA Today, Bob Nightengale asked Thames what he learned while he was in the KBO.
Interestingly, Thames noted that the size of the KBO strike zone played a role in honing his discipline.
He was a free swinger when he left the USA, hacking at 33% of breaking pitches outside the strike zone … If it was within 3 feet of the batter’s box, Thames joked, he was swinging.
In Korea, he learned discipline. Korean pitchers routinely throw no harder than 88 to 91 mph but will make your head spin with an array of split-fingered pitches and breaking balls. If you don’t adjust, your next job might be selling cheeseburgers.
“I had to really bear down in the strike zone and learn how to have plate discipline,” Thames says. “I would have to carry that here because they throw harder and the strike zone is bigger.”
But there’s also something to be said about leaving a comfort zone of a native land, about being immersed in a foreign culture, and also being removed from the spotlight of the majors. Thames not only refined his zone, he found more time to reflect and gain perspective, according to Nightengale:
Could he have learned that discipline by maturing and staying in the USA?
“You know how life is under certain circumstances kind of like the butterfly effect,” Thames says. “I feel like if I stayed here, I probably would have gone on the same path that I was on. I was the kind of player that I put too much pressure on myself, tried to do too much. I was too much into my own head. …
“When I went over there, I started to read a lot more, study inner peace, meditate, really embrace the mental toughness training. I could focus on the process, and don’t worry about the results.”
And that process, that self-imposed exile, has led to unthinkable results. Thames took an unusual path, but perhaps — for the right, scuffling, opportunity-shuttered Stateside player — it can be a road map to follow.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Even his heat map is a dong
That might be the best Thames comment so far this season – I only wish I had more upvotes
I see Thames is adjusting well to MLB
I don’t know how well others appreciated this. But I thoroughly enjoyed this one
Classic. Even the most reluctant up-voters have to chime in on this one. Well, he ain’t wrong.
Cecil Fielder: 319 career HRs
Prince Fielder: 319 career HRs
Eric Thames: 319 HRs in 2017
You mention this, but I think it bears repeating that much of Thames’ games and success has come against mediocre Reds pitching. Is there any analysis of the opponent quality level that Thames has faced so far, and what we should expect to see once the Brewers’ schedule (presumably) gets tougher?
Anecdotally that make sense but Dave mentioned in a podcast that there’s no evidence that it’s actually a thing that happens. However, I do think there’s more merit in suspecting that than implying he’s on PEDs just because of a hot start.
How much of the reds pitching being mediocre has come becomes Thames destroying it? (This is a joke)
The entire MIL lineup faced all of those same mediocre CIN pitchers. They didn’t all hit like Thames.
Exactly. Outside of Thames, I think the Reds have allowed somewhere around a .680 OPS, which is well below lg avg.
I do think that him facing the Reds has something to do with it, but I’m convinced it’s something much more subtle than “the Reds are bad pitchers” because they’ve been okay against non-Thames hitters. My pet theory is that whoever put together the scouting report on Thames for the Reds needs to be reassigned, or that the pitchers just can’t execute it.
I shall now correct myself. I’m watching the Brewers hit around in the 1st inning today and … yeah. It might be the Reds pitching.
But so far Thames with only a single and a run scored. That’s a small victory, right?
Rookie Davis is pretty awful right now, but I think this is the first time the Brewers have had the pleasure of playing against him.
The rest of the MIL lineup has also decided that they were going to try to win without hitting as well. Outside of Thames, Braun and Shaw, they have been embarrassingly terrible.
I also believe that the Reds pitched way over their heads for 2 weeks, and are starting to regress to their natural state over the last 10 days or so
You’re forgetting Pina and Bandy, Perez has been pretty decent as well
*DISCLAIMER* The following means absolutely nothing besides being factual information (probably meaningless information). I have drawn no conclusions.
In every game that Thames has homered off the SP (not just the Reds), his teammate(s) have homered against that same pitcher as well.
Home vs – Chatwood HR/9 1.71 – T. Shaw
@CIN vs – Arroyo 2.57 – R. Braun
@CHI vs – Lackey 1.88 – R. Braun and J. Bandy
Home vs – Martinez 1.19 – T. Shaw
Home vs – Garrett 1.57 – H. Perez
The only RP that fits that mold is Home vs – R. Stephenson 2.61 – H. Perez
The other RP’s he has homered off are:
@CIN vs – Wandy Peralta 1.04
@CIN vs – T. Cingrani 1.93
@CIN vs – T. Adleman 2.70
HR Park Factors for LHB (2015):
MIL – 114 – 2nd highest figure – 5HR
CIN – 112 – 3rd – 5HR
CHI – 97 – T13th (w/Braves @ Turner) – 1HR
I know it’s early and this is not a representation of the pitchers true talent levels (HR/9).
I imagine that what we’ll see is his numbers regressing below “greatest of all time,” which shouldn’t be surprising.
Probably saying the same thing, but to me that they would choose to leave when young and take a chance says something both about their (Fielder and Thames) own belief as to their ability and their willingness to try something that is a little very different and frightening.
love the thames story, and love the daily fangraphs takes. Hope he keeps it up, so FG will keep up the dailies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RroSbEJAxw
The punchline is, if Thames is busted for illegal PEDs later this year, we can count on Joe Sheehan to lecture us on how that had little or nothing to do with Thames’ astonishing transformation from Joe Shlabotnick to Joe DiMaggio.
Apropos of nothing, any player who references the Butterfly Effect in post-game interviews moves way up my list of favorite players.
Completely unrelated to his talents as a baseball player, but Thames struck me as thoughtful, humble, and funny in this article. Generally a good combo.
I’ve seen him say similar things about finding a sense of calm in South Korea. Other quotes I have seen by him that I like:
-About his language skills when he got to Korea:
“Everybody joked with me like I spoke like a baby,” Thames said. “I couldn’t conjugate. I was like, ‘Eric’s tired. Eric hungry. Eric wants meat.’ But I got through it. I survived.”
-About Milwaukee:
“I came to Milwaukee before I signed, checked it out, and after an hour I knew it was where I wanted to be,” Thames said. “I love the Midwest. I love the hospitality of people. And Milwaukee has great beer…I love beer.”
-On streaks:
“That’s how baseball is. Guys get in zones sometimes,” Thames said. “It’s like I tell the guys all the time, it’s a wave and you’ve just got to ride the wave and enjoy it because there’s always dark times around the corner…You’ve just got to take it in stride, play in the present and go from there.”
-On a hit that he didn’t think would go out:
“Tonight, 3-2 (count), Lackey was throwing everything but the kitchen sink at me so I’m trying to protect or walk for Brauny, then all of a sudden the ball just jumped off my bat,” Thames recounted. “I hit it and I was like, ‘The wind is blowing in to left – maybe a double.’ Then the ball just kept going. That was crazy…I looked at the scoreboard and was like, ‘What?’”
-On plate discipline:
“”The player I was before (in the majors), I was a free swinger – strikeout, strikeout. Now I feel like I mean nothing to the team unless I swing at strikes.”
I like this guy too.
Thanks for putting in the time to line up those quotes.
About Thames hitting 8 of 11 HRs against the Reds:
I’ve seen a few people dismiss the notion that it’s meaningful, and while that felt right to me, I hadn’t seen any numbers on the issue. So I ran them.
From 1913-2016, there were 674 known cases of someone hitting at least 8 HRs off one opponent in a year.
Only 6 of those — less than 1% — constituted at least half their season total. Two were HOF hitters, two were good hitters, one was a wartime fluke. None did it against the last-place ERA. The list:
— Max Carey, 1922, 9 of 10 HRs vs. Giants (1st in NL ERA).
Carey wasn’t a HR guy; half his career was in deadball, and 10 was his career high. But he was a good hitter, a HOFer. He hit 5 of those 9 in the Polo Grounds, where he had his best career HR rate, by far. He probably was able to take advantage of the very short foul lines.
— Stan Spence, 1943, 9 of 12 HRs vs Browns (6th of 8 in AL ERA).
Spence was a good hitter, with a 138 OPS+ from 1942-47. He might have been big star if he’d played in Sportsman’s Park instead of Griffith Stadium, one of the toughest HR parks of all time. All 9 of those 1943 HRs were hit in Sportsman’s, and his career slash line there was .329/.409/.570 with 22 HRs in 476 ABs.
— Johnny Barrett, 1945, 9 of 15 HRs vs. Braves (6th of 8 in NL ERA).
Basically a wartime fluke, Barrett played only 56 games outside the war years. 7 of those 9 came in 11 games at Braves Field, but he hit no others in 46 games there.
— Babe Dahlgren, 1939, 8 of 15 HRs vs. A’s (7th of 8 in AL ERA).
Maybe the closest to what some folks would paint as the dark side of Thames vs. Reds. Most of his HRs that year came in laughers, including three 2-HR games vs. A’s by 21-0, 23-2, 18-4, plus singletons in 22-2, 10-0, 10-0 and 14-5. But Dahlgren did have some good years, got MVP votes in 3 seasons.
— Harry Heilmann, 1922, 11 of 21 HRs vs. A’s (7th of 8 in AL ERA).
Another HOFer, this was during the 7-year span where he hit .380 with a 167 OPS+. 10 of the 11 HRs came in Shibe Park, which led the league by a mile in HRs allowed. He hit just 8 at home that year, but also batted .377/1.037 there.
— Eddie Robinson, 1955, 8 of 16 HRs vs. Tigers (5th of 8 in AL ERA, but better than average).
Steady 20-HR guy in his prime, but he was on the tail end in ’55, with just 215 PAs and a .208 BA for the Yanks. But thanks to two great parks for lefty power, Robinson logged a career-best HR rate, with 12 of his 16 HRs in Yankee or Briggs (Tiger) Stadium.
Focusing on raw numbers, the most HRs against one opponent was 14 by Lou Gehrig vs. Cleveland in 1936, when he slammed a career-high 49. Four guys had 13 vs. one foe; they averaged 50 HRs. Thirteen guys hit 12 vs. one foe; they averaged 44 HRs.
Considering all of this, plus Thames’s excellent stats vs. other teams, his destruction of Reds pitching seems most likely to be mere coincidence, just a foe he faced a lot during a very hot streak, and not a specific reason to doubt his validity above and beyond the usual SSS caveat.
Wow, this is one of my favorite articles in a long while. Historical storylines, input from the player himself, philosophy even. Gotta love it. This is what we’re missing