Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 4/6/16

Dave Cameron: Hey all. I’m a bit under the weather at the moment — kids are disease factories — and I have to drive to the airport to fly to Toronto this afternoon, so we might not make it a full hour today. But I’ll do my best.

Gerald: Braves have stated they “don’t want to trade Ender Inciarte”…but will they trade him by 8/1?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how their first half goes. If they’re hanging around .500 and see a legitimate chance to contend next year with Swanson and/or Albies added to the roster, then no. If they’re playing .350 ball and see that 2017 is a likely rebuilding year too, maybe.

KI: Aaron Sanchez induced 16 whiffs yesterday, including 4 off his change up. Has this combined with a spring where he barely walked anyone changed your thoughts on him?

Dave Cameron: Certainly starts like this help. I’ll remain skeptical of the dramatic command improvement until he does it over a longer period of time, but if he strings together a few of these, the prognosis will definitely get a lot better.

primantis: Has Trevor Story’s performance in the first two games caused you to adjust your thoughts on his long term outlook, and if so how? Just two games, but the HRs were all no-doubters.

Dave Cameron: Not at all. No one questions the power; it’s the rest of the offensive package that remains a bit questionable. As Jeff noted this spring, there just aren’t many examples of extreme flyball shortstops, and if he hits the ball in the air as much as it looks like he might, he’s probably going to be a low average/low OBP guy. So he’ll need to hit a lot of bombs to be a star, but could probably settle in as a Tony Batista type even without improvement. And obviously, he’s young enough to get better.

Pierre: Jose Bautista clearly just tried to hit Forsythe in the foot to throw him off, it had nothing to do with the actual slide. I don’t get what all the hubbub is about.

Dave Cameron: I don’t see how any non-Jays fan could look at that slide and not think “yeah, that’s obviously interference.” It wasn’t even subtle. I get that fans of a team are always going to take their own guys side, but it was very clearly obstruction on Bautista’s part.

Bryceroni: What do you pay attention to at the beginning of the season when there are very few data points available?

Dave Cameron: Mostly just look at pitchers; how’s the velo, did they add new pitches, that kind of stuff.

Tom: How many plate appearances does it take of a specific hitter facing a specific pitcher to conclude whether one of them has the other guy’s number?

Dave Cameron: More than any hitter and pitcher ever get within a reasonable period of time. It takes almost an entire career to rack up a few hundred data points, and when you’ve got a couple of 35 year olds facing off, how they did against each other when they were 26 isn’t very relevant anymore.

mtsw: Obviously the rule was correctly applied, but a literally game-deciding situation overturned on replay has to be the league’s nightmare for the first example of the new slide rule, no?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, not an ideal situation for MLB. But Bautista forced their hand.

Brad_in_NYC: Can we talk a second about Noah Syndergaard’s 95mph slider yesterday? How crazy is that? It’s not quite inventing a new pitch, but after all the talk (rightfully so) about Familia’s 93mph splitter last year, how impressive is the uber-slider?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be entirely shocked if Syndergaard ended up as the best non-Kershaw pitcher in the NL this year. He might be better than Jose Fernandez at this point.

James: O/U on the Dodgers having the best NL bullpen

Dave Cameron: How do you take the over on something being the best?

I left my heart in Winston-Salem: I’m trying to recognize what pitches I’m seeing the pitcher throw. Do you know if they still have that website that has gifs for each of the pitches in a pitcher’s arsenal?

Dave Cameron: http://www.pitcherlist.com/

Christian: So if we learned anything from the Yankees/Astros game yesterday, its that if a runner is running on the grass on the way to first, just throw the ball at him and risk him getting injured.

Dave Cameron: The fact that being out of the baseline isn’t reviewable makes no sense to me. It was clear as day.

Mark: As a Reds fan I was surprised to see their projected ROS ranking in team WAR when I looked yesterday. They’re still 6th from the bottom, but with some analysts predicting them as the worst team in baseball, I couldn’t help but wonder is this injury regression or the mainstream underrating their rotation? I don’t care about wins-losses this year, but maybe most folks are discounting some guys like DeSclafini a bit that they project above the DBacks. thanks.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the Reds are the most potentially decent of the NL non-contenders. They’re not good, but their line-up is actually just fine.

mtsw: In your opinion, should the front office have the authority to assign bullpen roles (or lack thereof) or should that be the manager’s decision? There seems like there’d be clear principal agent problems in situations like Houston’s where it’s beneficial for the team financially to take a slight hit in performance.

Dave Cameron: It seems to me that the dynamics work best when the on-field staff gets to make decisions about how playing time is allocated. The front office should provide data and analysis to help inform the decision, but it seems like micromanaging to tell the field staff who should close or setup or hit where in the order.

Erik: With all the new sliding rules, is baserunning as a skill independent from speed no longer a skill? I don’t want to sound like Goose, but breaking up double plays and plays at the plate was a fun niche skill that it would be sad to lose.

Dave Cameron: It has never been legal to grab the ankles of an infielder as you slid by. This isn’t a new rule.

klof: Are the Astros actually pretty smart to use their best relief pitcher more flexibly in the 7th or 8th or 9th or whenever they face a high leverage situation instead of just always handing him the 9th? If you face Trout in the 8th ahead by 1 with runners on, I’d want Giles then, not an inning later when it might be too late.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if you are willing to be flexible, having your best reliever available earlier in the game can be helpful.

j6takish: One year later, the Billy Butler contract has turned out exactly as everyone except beane predicted. Do you have any further insight as to the motivation? Or is it just as inexplicable as It was when it happened?

Dave Cameron: It seems like they thought they could buy low on a young-ish free agent and the kind of player they generally couldn’t afford. But Butler just isn’t very good.

Craig: How long will it take for hitters to adapt to Noah Syndergaard’s new slider, or is it so nasty a pitch that they really won’t?

Dave Cameron: How do you adapt to a mid-90s slider?

Mark: Everyone making these subpar comps to Trevor Story. He’s not that bad.

Dave Cameron: Who is saying he’s bad? I think he’s got a shot to be a nice average player, maybe a bit better than that if he can get his Ks down. Nothing wrong with that at all.

Dave Cameron: But the contact issues are going to make stardom tough.

MVetts: I’m a biased Blue Jays fan, but to me, the punishment for Bautista’s slide was like getting pulled over for driving 5 over the speed limit. Sure, it’s against the rules, but how ticky-tacky is too ticky-tacky?

Dave Cameron: Do you really want runners to be able to grab fielders with their hands as they slide? The answer is obviously no, so when they do that, you have to call them out. The fact that Bautista did it in an extremely high leverage situation is his fault.

Pope: Is Syndergaard the best pitcher on the mets?

Dave Cameron: I’ll say yes.

Erik: Is there a list somewhere of when various stats stabilize? When can we first say we know something, and what can we know?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-new-way-to-look-at-sample-size/

Brendan: Part 2: Can we agree that what Bautista did in terms of “obstruction” or “interference” was very close to the lower limit of what is possible? Does that mean that from now on any sort of interference should be taken out of the game? And is that really what everybody wants?

Dave Cameron: Uh, yes. Baseball is not about offensive players interfering with defensive players.

Gavin: As a Dodgers fan I’m not sure if I should be optimistic at this point or if the Padres are just really bad.

Dave Cameron: Both.

Andy J.: What’s the biggest overreaction one can make following the first two games of the season?

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers are the best team of all time.

mtsw: How do you keep the best relievers available for high leverage situations without constantly burning them by warming them up and not bringing them in? Especially now that the league is cracking down on time-wasting or stalling maneuvers like visits to the mound.

Dave Cameron: It’s a legitimate point; one of the problems with the relief ace theory is that you don’t always have time to get a guy up when a rally starts.

Dave Cameron: But if you use a guy like Giles every time he gets up, or almost every time, you can limit the up-and-downs.

A Fruit Salad: A little ways into the season last year, someone proposed a Syndergaard for Betts swap and you said that made the most sense of the trades you’d heard for Betts (which were running rampant). Which side of that trade would you take today? Acknowledging that neither team in real life would feel motivated to do that.

Dave Cameron: I think I’d probably take Mookie because of the reduced risk, but I wouldn’t fault anyone who wanted Thor. They’re both remarkable young talents.

B.B. Rodriguez: What do you think Betts max power output is? I get that he’s strong and has a quick bat. But he’s just not big enough to project for 30+ HR right? I just don’t see him anywhere near Trout or Harper level without that kind of power. And a lot of people are saying he is.

Dave Cameron: No, he’s not a 30 HR guy, and I don’t know anyone who is saying he’s at Trout/Harper levels. But he can hit 50 doubles, 15-20 HRs, have an even BB/K, steal a bunch of bases, and be a valuable defender, and that’s a superstar in its own right.

m: Re: Specific Picther, batter matchup data points. Could you compare a batter fares against similar pitchers to get more data points?

Dave Cameron: Yes, there’s been some work done on batter vs pitcher types, and there does seem to be some good information there.

Damaso: If you take a 50/50 blend of FIP WAR and RA9 WAR from the past two years and pro rate those performances to 200 innings pitched, then the Jays’ rotation rates out basically the exact same as the Red Sox’s. With that in mind can you really say the Sox’s is better?

Dave Cameron: “If you do this exact thing designed to support my preconceived belief, then I’m right.” Your passion to support your team is admirable, but your logic is not.

Doc: I get it was obstruction, but he barely made any contact. Ending a game on that little contact is ridiculous

Dave Cameron: “Well, officer, I know I tried to shoot that guy, but my aim sucked and I was only using a .22, so I don’t think I should get in any trouble here.”

Harvey Dingle: If James Shields continues to struggle (but doesn’t completely fall apart), do they swap him and take their chances on Sandoval? (with some money being moved around of course)

Dave Cameron: Shields is a little bit underwater, but he’s nowhere near in the red as much as Sandoval is.

Bork: So I asked August this but I’m curious about your stance on it as well. If Brett Cecil keeps pitching like Brett Cecil, do the Jays offer him a QO?

Dave Cameron: No.

BS: Think you could be getting any germs from your Dog?

Dave Cameron: Well considering the kid has sick for a week, and now I have the same symptoms he does, it seems more likely that it’s the boy.

Brendan: Respectfully, I’m not sure it is as clear cut as you are putting it. Sliding full speed and late, sometimes way off the bag and changing directions was essentially a very dangerous form of interference, and was previously allowed in baseball. To go from that one extreme to this other extreme is a big change. It appears to me that the spirit of the rule change was to limit injuries at second base, and not necessarily completely removing interference. At the very least, I believe this merits a debate.

Dave Cameron: The rules are explicit about this, and this is not a recent change; runners have never been allowed to interfere with a defender.

Dave Cameron: It’s just not part of the sport.

B.B. Rodriguez: Picking him for MVP over Trout is putting them in the same class. I love Mookie but i think he maxes out at 6.5 to 7 war. I don’t think you win MVP with less than 8 anymore.

Dave Cameron: You realize that there’s still a huge swath of voters who won’t pick a guy on a non-contending team, right? Do you remember the Trout/Cabrera debates?

Westin: Do you think Kazmir’s start will dampen some of the “LAD in disarray” narrative? Obviously it’s only one start, but it might be a reminder to people that the Dodgers rotation actually is quite good.

Dave Cameron: We have better data now than he had when he wrote that.

Dave Cameron: Well, that was the wrong answer to the wrong question.

Dave Cameron: Let’s try this again.

mtsw: Didn’t Tango try to do the batter type vs pitcher type thing in The Book and find there was basically no meaningful data beyond the FB/GB split (and L/R splits, obviously)

Dave Cameron: We have better data now than he had when he wrote that.

Dave Cameron: And to answer the Kazmir question, I don’t think one start is going to change anyone’s minds, nor should it. But the anti-Dodger narrative is just so lacking in factual basis that hopefully that crowd realizes the err of their ways pretty quickly.

Erik: Bautista’s obstruction seems like the run-of-the-mill sort of obstruction that used to happen on every double play and was let slide (rightly or wrongly, and you clearly think wrongly). Is the league just cracking down on its pre-existing slide rules, or was this part of the Utley rule?

Dave Cameron: Please show me any example from previous years of a player literally grabbing the middle infielder as he slides by.

Dave Cameron: This is the A-Rod slap, just at a different base.

CamdenWarehouse: Are there any circumstances where a QO for a reliever makes sense?

Dave Cameron: Sure. Chapman and Jansen will get them.

Reginald Denton III: Hi Dave! Feel better soon. How old is your kid? I have twin daughters and it’s amazing the germs we all spread around to each other.

Dave Cameron: 15 months. We’ve been lucky that he hasn’t gotten sick too many times, but he’s great at sharing when he does get sick.

Jeff in T.O.: FYI, it’s snowing today in Toronto and turning to rain for the next couple of days. Pack accordingly.

Dave Cameron: It’s ~70 here in NC. Will be fun to try and figure out what to wear on the plane.

JoeyB: The rule is to prevent injury, not obstruction. It’s magical thinking to start talking obstruction when that is not what the rule is all about.

Dave Cameron: Again, Bautista wasn’t called out for violating the Utley rule; he was called out for grabbing Forsythe’s foot, which has NEVER been legal in MLB.

Nicholas: I asked Jeff this last week, but I am curious as to what your answer would be. Which RF puts up more WAR over the next 3 years: Betts or Stanton?

Dave Cameron: I’ll go with Mookie simply due to Stanton’s health issues.

Stu: Why aren’t teams arbitraging away the costs of draft pick compensation? A team that has already surrendered its first two picks, for instance, could sign a player subject to a QO and then trade him (with consent, because CBA prohibits trades of newly signed players without consent) to the team that wants to sign him. Instead of costing the team that wants him a first rounder, it costs the signing team a 3rd rounder. Trade something with value of 2nd rounder, both teams come out ahead. Because compensation isn’t zero-sum, incentives are all unidirectional and we should eventually see a market where every FA signs with a small handful of teams who absorb the draft pick penalty and trade to the real teams in interest for a brokerage fee.

Dave Cameron: MLB won’t allow it.

Dave Cameron: They specifically sent every team a memo this winter telling them sign-and-trades are off the table.

Red Sox in TO: What is your itinerary in TO? For those of us with tickets to the opener, do we have another opportunity to hear you speak/hang out?

Dave Cameron: Unfortunately, it’s a short trip. I’m in late tonight, then doing Sportsnet 590 in studio from 11-1130 tomorrow, then the sold out Pitch Talks event tomorrow night, then the FG Meetup on Friday night, then fly back on Saturday.

Dave Cameron: So if you can’t make it to either of the Thursday/Friday gigs, I probably don’t have time for anything else.

Ampersand: When do you think is the earliest that Giolito might come up? If there’s an injury in the Nats rotation in May, would they consider it?

Dave Cameron: Yeah.

Eric: Kluber’s velocity was down almost 1.5 MPH yesterday. Reason for concern?

Dave Cameron: It was cold. Velo is often down in cold weather.

BS: Well, if the Toronto weather doesn’t cure you, your schedule will kill you.

Dave Cameron: This is only half of it. When I fly back on Saturday, I’m actually staying in Charlotte for the night, because the wife and I are flying to the northwest for a few days on early Sunday morning. So I’m doing four flights in seven days, two of them cross country.

Va Nat: Love Blake Treinen’s stuff. Where do you see his ceiling?

Dave Cameron: Very good setup guy.

Bork: You’ve pretty much made a full hour. Good job Dave! GO SLEEP

Dave Cameron: Not an option. Have to pack and then drive to the airport. Would say I’ll sleep on the plane, but altitude changes + plugged up nasal cavity means that I’ll probably just be crying in pain for two hours.

TF Fredrik: Is Sullivan gonna have like 3000 words on Syndergaard’s start today? Or will that be up tomorrow?

Dave Cameron: August just put his post up on Thor. https://t.co/zUb9zxyE3F

Dave Cameron: Okay, I’m throwing in the towel. Or more appropriately, the tissue.

Dave Cameron: Life pro tip: don’t have kids.

Dave Cameron: If you’re in Toronto this week, hopefully I’ll see you at the Pitch Talks event or the FG Meetup on Friday night, and I’ll be on Sportsnet 590 from 11-1130 tomorrow if you want to hear me cough and sneeze live on the air.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for putting up with me at a diminished capacity.