Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 5/31/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Since we last spoke, I (most likely) tore my ACL and contracted a stomach bug that caused me to vomit during the recording of the most recent podcast.

Dave Cameron: Oh, also, Mike Trout got hurt.

Dave Cameron: This week sucked.

Dave Cameron: Let’s talk about happier things.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: The AL position player WAR leaders right now include Sano (3rd), Dickerson (4th), and Souza (7th). Mike Trout has been the best player in baseball by so far for so long that he can win MVP despite playing for the Angels. Not that Sano, Dickerson, or Souza will still be at the top come October, but how do the voters treat the players on small market non-juggernauts for the non-first place votes? Ortiz got sixth in MVP voting last year, which is farcical, but I can’t picture the Rays’ DH getting votes over names like Correa and Lindor even if you just extrapolate his numbers to a 7.5 WAR season.

Dave Cameron: He has basically no chance to win MVP now. Even if he ends up on top of the WAR leaderboards, there’s no way voters pick a guy who missed two months on a non-contender.

Dave Cameron: Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor or whoever the best player on the AL East winner will be an easier vote, since the overall numbers won’t be that dramatic.

ozzie: So the White Sox should have traded Quintana during the offseason, right? Or is there only marginal difference, at most, between what Quintana can fetch going forward vs back in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: No, they should have traded him. His value is definitely down. You can’t pitch like this and have it not affect your trade value.

Eric Weinstein: Your answer last week about Addison Russell being a possible, but mostly undiscussed, trade item intrigued me. IF you were the Cubs, would you offer Addsion Russell for Chris Archer? And how much more do you think the Cubs would have to add to get that deal done? Eloy? Cease?

Dave Cameron: Last summer, I had Russell at #31 and Archer at #21 on the trade value series. Both have probably seen their values drop a bit since (everyone does, as they get closer to FA, basically), but yeah, I would think Russell for Archer would be an interesting starting spot.

Theo vs. Boras: Which job would you rather have and why?

Dave Cameron: If I was into public adoration, it’s Theo, easily. He’s beloved in two cities, will go into the HOF, and is widely regarded as one of the best executives in the world. If you were into not having your mood dictated by the results of a baseball game every night, then you take Boras, simply because it’s probably a little less stressful on a daily basis.

Dave Cameron: I’d probably take Boras’ gig. It seems easier.

joe: how do i explain to my non sabremetrically inclined friends the importance of exit velocity?

Dave Cameron: The same way you explain the importance of pitch velocity?

Dave Cameron: Hard hit balls are better.

klof: Mike Trout still leads MLB in WAR at the end of the season. Yes/No?

Dave Cameron: MLB? No. AL? Maybe.

Ninja Black Sock: Who is the Dodgers 2nd best pitcher?

Dave Cameron: Alex Wood.

Jeff: why would GM’s be concerned with Quintana?

Dave Cameron: His primary ace-skill the last few years has been HR suppression, which has gone away this year. He doesn’t miss enough bats or avoid walks enough to be a frontline starter while also giving up HRs.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Dave, your take on the Harper/Strickland punishment? Sure, Harper did not look good charging the mound, but with fairly clear intent there seems to be no chance that Strickland would have seen “justice” and Posey or Crawford might have. If a player acts as a rogue agent like that, would a National League manager keeping the pitcher in to hit be a good way to assert control of the clubhouse?

Dave Cameron: I get why players want to self-police. I also think that throwing at each other and risking injury in this way is stupid. I wish players would come up with a better mechanism to discourage behavior they didn’t like.

Dave Cameron: Forcing the pitcher to hit, so he can get thrown at, is just perpetuating the idea that this is a good way to handle issues.

Mark: Any hope for the Cubs to turn it around and win the NL Central?

Dave Cameron: Of course. It’s a slow start, but they’re still a good team.

Stuafoo: In respect to player assessment, where have you gone against the grain and been most right/wrong?

Dave Cameron: Historically I’ve been one to argue there is more value in the lower upside/higher floor types than the industry has usually believed. My types of guys have often been the ones who might be considered tweeners, so maybe they don’t have enough power for a corner spot or enough D for a middle spot.

Dave Cameron: This has led to me posting things like “maybe Dustin Ackley isn’t so much worse than Stephen Strasburg”

Dave Cameron: Which is easy to mock, in retrospect.

Gest : Without considering the small shortstop market, how much has Cozart’s individual trade value increased in 2017? He has seemed to make some real improvements but how much will teams buy into them?

Dave Cameron: It’s definitely up, though his HR total has been inflated by a few balls that were wind or park aided. I don’t think teams are going to buy into the power. But he’s clearly a better hitter than he used to be.

v2micca: Small sample size, but Chris Sale appears to be suppressing homeruns (in a park known to give up cheap ones) more effectively than he did in a more Homerun neutral environment. Random variance, or his he doing something different?

Dave Cameron: CHW’s park is far more HR friendly than Fenway.

v2micca: Reading through the strike zone article by Eno today. Has the left-handed strikezone penalty largely been mitigated the last couple of years. Seems like the outside pitches aren’t been called with quite the same regularity of even just a few seasons ago.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, eliminating the lefty strike area has been one of the primary changes MLB has pushed umpires to make.

Colin: Unless things turnaround fast, the White Sox pretty much have to hold quintana until the offseason, right?

Dave Cameron: Not necessarily. He could go on a good run over the next month, and they could realize their prior asking price is never happening, thus lowering the price to a more palatable level.

Hal: What’s up with Manny Machado? Should Os fans be worried or is this just a flukey bad start?

Dave Cameron: He’s always been more of a good hitter than a great one. The infield fly problem is legitimate. His BABIP will rebound, and he’s still a great player, but he’s a great player because of his all-around game, not because he’s a hitter who never slumps.

Wes: Would it be possible to add a top prospects tab on each team’s page next to pitcher usage, depth chart, etc? Just something that maybe lists the prospects in a table and shows Eric’s FVs.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s in the works.

Zock Jr.: Bogaerts’ homer to dead center last night looked a little mis-hit to me. The power is there.

Dave Cameron: The power is definitely there; you don’t run .200 ISOs in the minors as a teenager without legitimate power. But the way he’s adjusted his swing in MLB has limited his ability to tap into it, while also helping him hit for a high average. It will be interesting to see if he finds a better middle ground.

Rich O: Dave, if the Pirates made Gerrit Cole available what price would the Yankees have to pay to acquire him?

Dave Cameron: A steep one. More than they got for Miller.

Guest: any chance the mariners trade everyone except cano and felix?

Dave Cameron: If you’re trading everyone, why hang on to those two?

Rich O: Aaron Judge over/under 40 homers?

Dave Cameron: He’s at, what, 17? So 23 over the final four months? I’ll go under, but just slightly.

Dave P: Dave, in a chat earlier this year you were not bullish on Hunter Renfroe. Has his improved results over the last couple of weeks modified your view?

Dave Cameron: Not really. He’s an overly-aggressive corner OF with some power and meh D. Would you be excited about him turning into Avisail Garcia?

GPT: Can we get splits for minor league players? That is the one thing BR still has on Fangraphs right now after your update for minor league stat pages

Dave Cameron: In the plans.

HappyFunBall: Yuck. How’d you tear the ACL? Crazy Oregon dance party accident?

Dave Cameron: Pick up basketball. This is why MLB players aren’t allowed to hoop.

Brian McCann’s Neck: Why is Aaron Judge’s defensive value negative for fangraphs WAR when DRS loves him and UZR seems to think he’s average?

Dave Cameron: DEF includes the positional adjustment. RFs, by definition, are playing a position generally manned by below average defenders.

Gary: Hi Dave- have you seen anything in Patrick Corbin to give you hope he turns around his season and pitches maybe to something like a 3.50 ERA for the rest of the season. I think Eno wrote about Corbin in a positive way in early May, but the results have not matched Eno’s optimism at the time. Thanks

Dave Cameron: Until he learns to get RHBs out, I’m not a fan.

greg: Many Royals fans are ready to sell and that makes sense, but aren’t we at least several weeks away from having enough buyers and letting the market materialize before anything really can/should happen?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there’s not a huge demand for what the Royals have right now.

The Ghost of Drake Laroche: Dave, why do I feel like Stanton is the only person not aware that he can’t lay off a slider down and away in the dirt? The guy k’s without fail on this pitch. How has he not adjusted or worked on laying off this pitch over the course of 3 years?

Dave Cameron: Stanton is running a career-low K% and career-high contact%.

Dave Cameron: This is a weird time to be complaining about this.

E: Do you agree with the playoff odds that the Astros are the most likely team to make the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: They’re, what, 11 games up in the division? They have to be.

rustydude: For your dog, have you paid for any training, was the training effective, and was it worth what you paid?

Dave Cameron: We didn’t do professional training, and I wish we would have.

Boo Jay’s: So now that the Jay’s have crept back within striking distance of the WC, do they look at adding help (ideally at low cost) in the coming month plus if they’re about this far out?

Dave Cameron: Will depend on next six weeks, but yeah, they’re probably close enough to not sell for now.

Grant: How does the positional adjustment in WAR work for someone like Bryant (last year), who plays 3B/LF/etc.?

Dave Cameron: It’s given proportionally to the innings they play at those spots.

Grant: Just putting in a plug: Eric’s prospects write-ups are honest and really informative. Excited for the draft coverage!

Dave Cameron: Glad you’re enjoying his work.

Kenley Jansen: Alex Wood is the Dodgers’ second best pitcher?

Dave Cameron: Jansen is better on a per-batter basis, but Wood has more value overall, since he can go deeper in games.

Boo Jay’s: These Pitch Talk podcasts have been great for us Jay’s fans, any way we can ensure they continue? What made you decide to start doing them in the first place?

Dave Cameron: The guy behind Pitch Talks offered us money to do them.

Dave Cameron: We’ll have to take a bit of a break in August when Carson becomes a dad, but other than that, I’d imagine we’ll keep going.

Ed in Iowa: Oofdah! Sorry about the bad week! I was just going to ask whether Russell was more valuable than Sonny Gray, but I take it from your Russell/Archer answer that four and a half years of Russell IS more valuable than two and a half years of Gray

Dave Cameron: Yeah, you don’t trade Russell for Gray.

Lineups: Why do a lot of managers take so much heat for this? Sabermetrically speaking, it doesn’t have nearly as big of an impact of WHO is in the lineup to begin with, so isn’t this more on the front office? (i.e. Matheny and the Cardinals)

Dave Cameron: It’s an easy thing for fans to complain about, and fans like to complain.

Chaps: I was gonna say “ha, look at last night’s Astros game: Fiers blew up, they clearly need another pitcher instead of a 1B”, but then Fiers pitched a good game and Gurriel basically got an error at 1B…if they did decide to go out and find a 1B (internally or externally), how do they reconcile the fact that Gurriel’s getting $31.2 million through the rest of his contract?

Dave Cameron: $31 million over five years. $6M per year for a part-time IF isn’t terrible.

Tj: Do you think that there’s ever any reasonable scenario where a drafted player goes straight to the majors a la Pete Incavigilia in today’s day and age?

Dave Cameron: Nah. The game is too different now.

Charlie: Saw all over twitter yesterday the most recent FanGraphs playoff odds had the White Sox sitting around 40% and the Cubs sitting around 30%. So, theoretically, the Sox are more probable to make the playoffs for the Cubs. Imagine you are taking a bet with a buddy, there’s no way you make that bet 1-1 right? What’s wrong with the Math then?

Dave Cameron: I didn’t see what you were referring to, but that’s not what our playoff odds say. http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

Nick: Regarding player assessment, I’m pretty sure I recall you telling Cistuilli that Lindor was the most overrated prospect you had seen in a while :). To be fair though, I don’t think anyone saw him becoming this kind of a hitter. Also predicting the future is hard.

Dave Cameron: I don’t recall saying that, and given my appreciation of elite defenders who hit decently, it seems out of line with my general beliefs.

Dave Cameron: It’s possible I did, of course, but usually, I’m the one sticking up for guys with a 90 wRC+ and +15 UZR.

LegallyEagle: Should the Dodgers be content with their depth/prospects, or trade for a player like Braun or Archer to help “win-now” (more)?

Dave Cameron: They don’t need any more SPs.

Dave Cameron: And an OF probably depends on Pederson. If they think he’s going to be fine, then Bellinger/Pederson/Puig is good enough.

Dave Cameron: If he’s a concern, then an OF who can play CF is probably a better fit.

Steven: Say you became the Dbacks GM, would you trade Greinke in season or wait it out and circle back in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: They’re in too good of a spot to punt.

Dave Cameron: You go for it.

sabrtooth: When do you find out if your injury is an ACL tear? How did it happen?

Getting old is the worst.

Dave Cameron: MRI tomorrow, back to the orthopedist on Friday to learn the results.

Dave Cameron: But given the amount of swelling I still have a week later, it’s pretty unlikely that I didn’t tear something.

Dave Cameron: At this point, best case scenario is probably just MCL or LCL instead of ACL. But wouldn’t be surprised if I ripped them all up.

Jerry: Does Matt Kemp have any trade value currently without having to pay his contract down?

Dave Cameron: No. You saw what bat-only corner guys got this winter.

PTBNL: What, in your view, is the difference between a 2-Seamer and a Sinker?

Dave Cameron: I think it’s semantics.

Dave Cameron: They’re the same to me.

LegallyEagle: I’m planning to visit Camden Yards this summer. Any suggestions of food/etc.?

Dave Cameron: Invest in liquids.

Dave Cameron: You’re going to sweat profusely.

CamdenWarehouse: It seems like I have to log into FG every day instead of staying logged in. Is this just me or how it’s designed? If the later, can the logout period be a little longer?

Dave Cameron: That’s definitely not by design. It’s an issue some people have, but not everyone, so we’re trying to figure out what causes it.

Longtime USSM reader: Weren’t you very down on Robinson Cano as a prospect at one point? Re:Hindsight

Dave Cameron: I liked the bat but hated the defense, and didn’t think a ~.750 OPS guy as a corner OF (which is what he looked like when I saw him play 2B in A-ball) was special.

Dave Cameron: He got a lot better defensively.

Look at Me I’m Wonderful: Does Puig play the best RF defense in the game? If not, who does?

Dave Cameron: Jason Heyward.

TKDC: ESPN says that Charlie Blackmon is the best CF now (excluding Trout due to injury). Who is actually the best CF now? Would you say that without Trout CF is actually a pretty weak position across the board?

Dave Cameron: A.J. Pollock is pretty good.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think CF is weak; I think Trout just inflates expectations.

Brian: Had a discussion with a friend regarding which team is furthest from making the playoffs – he said Marlins (pieces to keep or trade but tough division); I said Royals (no pieces meaningful pieces to trade but easier division)…thoughts?

Dave Cameron: SD is in there too, but yeah, one of those three.

Random life advice: How do you know when to quit your first job? Mine is tolerable but not enjoyable, but I have no similar experiences to compare it to.

Dave Cameron: Don’t quit until you have another job lined up.

Dave Cameron: By lined up, I mean get hired there.

ohioastrosfan: If you’re Luhnow, it’s at a point where any upgrades have to be playoff focused right? No need to pick up a BOR guy, basically it needs to be a top 3 starter, top reliever or a sizeable upgrade to the lineup (Beltran or Yuli) right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah. You buy for October.

CamdenWarehouse: “Carson becomes a dad” – it was until I saw it written that I understood the full implications of this

Dave Cameron: He’s openly discussed having his kid sleep in a cardboard box.

Jerry: Is your Mike Napoli comp for Schwarber starting to look way too optimistic? Maybe a lefty Viciedo is more accurate.

Dave Cameron: Viciedo didn’t walk. Schwarber’s career track record suggests he’ll hit.

Dave Cameron: I’m obviously not his biggest fan, but no reason to give up on the bat yet.

Jack: Is there a way to input specific search qualifiers into FG – for example, a query for players with FB% over 40%, IFFB% under 10%, and HR/FB under 10%?

Dave Cameron: Yes. You can do that with the Splits Leaderboard.

E: How would you describe your bball game? 3 and D? crash the boards? Distributor?

Dave Cameron: I played PF in high school because we didn’t have any height, so my background is a 6’1 post player. I was basically the Charles Oakley of my HS team. But now that I play (or played, given the knee…) against normal sized humans, I’ve had to develop an outside game. So now I’m more like some slow undersized SG.

Dave Cameron: And on that note, I’ll call it a chat for this week.

Dave Cameron: Going to go write about the Cubs.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Hopefully next week injures fewer people.