KATOH’s Most-Improved Pitching Prospects So Far
With nearly two months of games in the books, I’m taking another look at the pitching prospects who have most improved their KATOH+ projections since the preseason. To ensure I am writing up actual prospects rather than fringey ones, I’ve set a minimum KATOH+ projection of 3.0 WAR and listed the five most-improved lesser prospects at the bottom. I did not include guys who are injured or who have graduated to the big leagues. A reminder: a player’s KATOH forecast denotes his projected WAR total over the first six seasons of his major-league career.
Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 5.7
Current KATOH+ Projection: 7.5
Honeywell has dominated while splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A this year. He’s struck out 30% of opposing hitters and walked less than 5%. The results haven’t quite been there in Triple-A, as evidenced by his 4.93 ERA, but his 2.89 xFIP explains KATOH’s admiration. He’s become one of baseball’s very best pitching prospects.
Nick Pivetta, RHP, Philadelphia (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 1.7
Current KATOH+ Projection: 3.5
Pivetta’s done a bang-up job in Triple-A this year, posting a 1.41 ERA and 37:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Most notably, he hacked several points off of his walk rate, which wasn’t terribly high to begin with. He got knocked around a bit in a four-start cameo role with Philly, but his minor-league performance has been undeniably excellent.
Mike Soroka, RHP, Atlanta (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 5.6
Current KATOH+ Projection: 6.3
The Braves aggressively bumped Soroka from Low-A to Double-A this year and the 19-year-old hasn’t skipped a beat. He’s dialed his strikeout rate up to 26% and spun a 2.96 ERA over nine starts. Soroka’s always been a promising prospect, but now that he’s dominated Double-A hitters, it appears he’s closer than KATOH previously thought.
Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 2.6
Current KATOH+ Projection: 3.2
KATOH’s always been skeptical of Newcomb due to his high walk rates and age relative to level. Those concerns remain, as Newcomb’s walked over 13% in his age-24 season, but he’s also upped his strikeout rate this year at Triple-A. Newcomb has his warts, but he’s proven he can miss near-big-league bats.
Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Philadelphia (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 3.6
Current KATOH+ Projection: 4.1
After an excellent year in Rookie ball, Sanchez matriculated to Low-A this season at the tender age of 18. He’s proved ready for the challenge, posting a 28:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over five starts. Sanchez is still a few years away, but his numbers have been impeccable. He’s currently sidelined with a sore neck, although that might just be Phillies trying to manage the teenager’s innings load.
Luke Weaver, RHP, St. Louis (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 6.5
Current KATOH+ Projection: 6.6
Weaver’s pitched very well in Triple-A this year, spinning a 2.08 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate. He’s also added 10% to his ground-ball rate from last year. He wasn’t great in his 36-inning stint with the Cardinals last year, largely due to his seven homers, but now that he’s doing a better job of keeping the ball on the ground, he’s seemingly earned another shot.
Kolby Allard, LHP, Atlanta (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 5.4
Current KATOH+ Projection: 5.5
Like Soroka, Allard made the leap from Low-A to Double-A at the age of 19. Allard hasn’t been quite as dominant as his teammate, though he’s more than held his own. Neither Allard’s 21% strikeout rate nor his 8% walk rate would qualify as outstanding. Considering, however, that he’s a 19-year-old at Double-A, Allard’s performance has been very impressive.
Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 3.9
Current KATOH+ Projection: 4.0
Woodruff burst onto the scene last year, when he posted a 27% strikeout rate and 2.50 FIP between High-A and Double-A. He hasn’t been quite as dominant this season, but his forecast has still ticked up since he’s faced off against Triple-A hitters. His sub-4.00 FIP at Triple-A suggests he’s nearly ready for the show.
Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Minnesota (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 4.2
Current KATOH+ Projection: 4.2
Gonsalves pitched very well in his first to starts of 2017 after missing time with a shoulder injury. He’s picked up right where he left off last year, striking out 25% of batters faced at Double-A. Gonsalves lacks fastball velocity, but he’s consistently performed at every stop.
Anthony Banda, LHP, Arizona (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 3.9
Current KATOH+ Projection: 3.9
Banda put together a solid season between Double-A and Triple-A last year and has carried that over to 2017. Through 10 Triple-A starts, he’s struck out 23% of batters faced and posted a 4.34 xFIP. That’s not eye-popping, but coming from a 23-year-old, it keeps him on a promising trajectory.
*****
Wilmer Font, RHP, Los Angeles (NL) (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 0.6
Current KATOH+ Projection: 2.5
Tyler Webb, LHP, New York (AL) (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 1.0
Current KATOH+ Projection: 2.4
Jake Junis, RHP, Kansas City (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 1.2
Current KATOH+ Projection: 2.6
Logan Allen, LHP, San Diego (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 0.8
Current KATOH+ Projection: 1.6
Adonis Medina, RHP, Philadelphia (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 0.4
Current KATOH+ Projection: 1.2
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Interesting – Triston McKenzie was on the previous list (5/17) and had gone from 8.0 to 9.9 … he’s only made 2 starts since then, and granted they weren’t stellar (12 IP, 14 K, 7 BB, 3 HR), but I wouldn’t have guessed that they would drop him all the way off of the ‘improved’ list – does KATOH+ move that quickly?
For a guy that far away from majors, my guess is that KATOH+ only likes the extreme guys. My guess is that the 5/17 list only had data prior to 5/15 (i.e. 3 starts instead of 2 probably in this update). His last three starts have probably dropped him out of that extreme category. I think KATOH+ was likely too influenced by his 5/9 start in previous update.
That’s definitely possible… although that third start wasn’t really terrible, either (6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 8 K).
I think McKenzie IS an ‘extreme’ guy – Chris mentioned in the last post that McKenzie was actually KATOH+’s #1 pitching prospect.
Also, it feels like it would be a little weird for a projection system like KATOH+ to move TOO much based on 18 innings, especially when they weren’t really extreme in either direction (18 IP, 22 K, 10 BB, 4 HR)
I guess if McKenzie really missed the list (meaning he’s lowered his prospect stock in KATOH+’s eyes this year), that it would be due to the walk rate creeping into double-digits… I think some of the traditional lists will have him closing in on the top 25 when they update mid-season.
Yep, his last three starts caused him to dip below 8.0, which was where he was in the preseason. 71 BF of 5.68 FIP may not seem like a huge deal, but it was significantly worse than what he’d done previously. KATOH still loves him, but it no longer loves him more than it did two months ago.
The Allard write-up references Soroka multiple times. Not sure what is going on there.
My fault. Duly edited. Thanks!
I’ve always viewed Pivetta as a AAAA pitcher. Do you think he could be more?
So some of these guys are now projected to earn an additional tenth of a win over their first six years in the majors, and that’s enough to put them among the most improved? I’m still not quite on board with this whole KATOH thing, I guess.
Gonsalves and Banda haven’t improved their KATOH forecast at all and yet they’re among the most improved pitching prospects?
Yeah, I’m confused… 5 of these guys have improved by .1 projected WAR or less, but they are on the most improved list? Everyone on what appears to be the honorable mentions list has improved by more than .1 projected WAR?
Possible solutions:
1. The methodology implied by the headline, namely that this post represents a simple list of the players with the largest difference between preseason projected WAR and current projected WAR, may not be the methodology actually used. Is this a list of players the author subjectively determined were worth writing about?
2. There were typos in the cited projected WAR numbers, the correct numbers would illustrate that this is the subset of pitchers whom Katoh+ considers to have improved the most since the beginning of the year.
3. Even just maintaining ones projected WAR is incredibly difficult, and the vast majority of players lose projected WAR throughout the season, therefore, even players who have the same projected WAR now as in the preseason are members of the “most improved” group.
None of these solutions seem terribly compelling to me, but I suppose I’ll put my proverbial money on… #1?
Sorry to leave y’all hanging. It’s because I set a 3.0 WAR minimum for the main list (as stated in the opening paragraph). Not too many pitching prospects clear that threshold, so only a few 3.0+ guys improved by a substantial margin.
The reasoning behind this is that I wanted to focus on actual good prospects who’ve improved, rather than fringey guys (like Logan Allen who went from 0.8 to 1.6, which still isn’t particularly good).
Hmm. So basically most of the very few decent pitching prospects we have are getting lit up…
I can’t remember a time when we had so few quality pitching prospects. Offense is going to continue to rise in MLB — juiced ball or not.
Logan Allen is interesting to Red Sox fans. While I, as a Sox fan, was a big fan of the Margot for Kimbrel trade, most thought the Sox were taken. While the Padres had no use for a premier closer, their haul is looking pretty moth-eaten. Margot, who had no place to play, looks like another good glove, mediocre bat CF. They are everywhere. Asuaje has all the attributes of a AAAA utility man, Guerra has blown apart completely and that leaves Allen to salvage the deal for San Diego. Not exactly what the Yankees got for their star relievers.
Margot is 22 and he’s playing in the show. That’s awfully quick to close the book on him. Also, the Yankees traded their guys at the deadline in all-time sellers market for relievers.