KATOH’s Most-Improved Pitching Prospects So Far

With nearly two months of games in the books, I’m taking another look at the pitching prospects who have most improved their KATOH+ projections since the preseason. To ensure I am writing up actual prospects rather than fringey ones, I’ve set a minimum KATOH+ projection of 3.0 WAR and listed the five most-improved lesser prospects at the bottom. I did not include guys who are injured or who have graduated to the big leagues. A reminder: a player’s KATOH forecast denotes his projected WAR total over the first six seasons of his major-league career.

Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 5.7
Current KATOH+ Projection: 7.5

Honeywell has dominated while splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A this year. He’s struck out 30% of opposing hitters and walked less than 5%. The results haven’t quite been there in Triple-A, as evidenced by his 4.93 ERA, but his 2.89 xFIP explains KATOH’s admiration. He’s become one of baseball’s very best pitching prospects.

Nick Pivetta, RHP, Philadelphia (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 1.7
Current KATOH+ Projection: 3.5

Pivetta’s done a bang-up job in Triple-A this year, posting a 1.41 ERA and 37:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Most notably, he hacked several points off of his walk rate, which wasn’t terribly high to begin with. He got knocked around a bit in a four-start cameo role with Philly, but his minor-league performance has been undeniably excellent.

Mike Soroka, RHP, Atlanta (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 5.6
Current KATOH+ Projection: 6.3

The Braves aggressively bumped Soroka from Low-A to Double-A this year and the 19-year-old hasn’t skipped a beat. He’s dialed his strikeout rate up to 26% and spun a 2.96 ERA over nine starts. Soroka’s always been a promising prospect, but now that he’s dominated Double-A hitters, it appears he’s closer than KATOH previously thought.

Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 2.6
Current KATOH+ Projection: 3.2

KATOH’s always been skeptical of Newcomb due to his high walk rates and age relative to level. Those concerns remain, as Newcomb’s walked over 13% in his age-24 season, but he’s also upped his strikeout rate this year at Triple-A. Newcomb has his warts, but he’s proven he can miss near-big-league bats.

Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Philadelphia (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 3.6
Current KATOH+ Projection: 4.1

After an excellent year in Rookie ball, Sanchez matriculated to Low-A this season at the tender age of 18. He’s proved ready for the challenge, posting a 28:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over five starts. Sanchez is still a few years away, but his numbers have been impeccable. He’s currently sidelined with a sore neck, although that might just be Phillies trying to manage the teenager’s innings load.

Luke Weaver, RHP, St. Louis (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 6.5
Current KATOH+ Projection: 6.6

Weaver’s pitched very well in Triple-A this year, spinning a 2.08 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate. He’s also added 10% to his ground-ball rate from last year. He wasn’t great in his 36-inning stint with the Cardinals last year, largely due to his seven homers, but now that he’s doing a better job of keeping the ball on the ground, he’s seemingly earned another shot.

Kolby Allard, LHP, Atlanta (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 5.4
Current KATOH+ Projection: 5.5

Like Soroka, Allard made the leap from Low-A to Double-A at the age of 19. Allard hasn’t been quite as dominant as his teammate, though he’s more than held his own. Neither Allard’s 21% strikeout rate nor his 8% walk rate would qualify as outstanding. Considering, however, that he’s a 19-year-old at Double-A, Allard’s performance has been very impressive.

Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 3.9
Current KATOH+ Projection: 4.0

Woodruff burst onto the scene last year, when he posted a 27% strikeout rate and 2.50 FIP between High-A and Double-A. He hasn’t been quite as dominant this season, but his forecast has still ticked up since he’s faced off against Triple-A hitters. His sub-4.00 FIP at Triple-A suggests he’s nearly ready for the show.

Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Minnesota (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 4.2
Current KATOH+ Projection: 4.2

Gonsalves pitched very well in his first to starts of 2017 after missing time with a shoulder injury. He’s picked up right where he left off last year, striking out 25% of batters faced at Double-A. Gonsalves lacks fastball velocity, but he’s consistently performed at every stop.

Anthony Banda, LHP, Arizona (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 3.9
Current KATOH+ Projection: 3.9

Banda put together a solid season between Double-A and Triple-A last year and has carried that over to 2017. Through 10 Triple-A starts, he’s struck out 23% of batters faced and posted a 4.34 xFIP. That’s not eye-popping, but coming from a 23-year-old, it keeps him on a promising trajectory.

*****

Wilmer Font, RHP, Los Angeles (NL) (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 0.6
Current KATOH+ Projection: 2.5

Tyler Webb, LHP, New York (AL) (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 1.0
Current KATOH+ Projection: 2.4

Jake Junis, RHP, Kansas City (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 1.2
Current KATOH+ Projection: 2.6

Logan Allen, LHP, San Diego (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 0.8
Current KATOH+ Projection: 1.6

Adonis Medina, RHP, Philadelphia (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 0.4
Current KATOH+ Projection: 1.2





Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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tb3nn3tt
6 years ago

Interesting – Triston McKenzie was on the previous list (5/17) and had gone from 8.0 to 9.9 … he’s only made 2 starts since then, and granted they weren’t stellar (12 IP, 14 K, 7 BB, 3 HR), but I wouldn’t have guessed that they would drop him all the way off of the ‘improved’ list – does KATOH+ move that quickly?

Joe Joemember
6 years ago
Reply to  tb3nn3tt

For a guy that far away from majors, my guess is that KATOH+ only likes the extreme guys. My guess is that the 5/17 list only had data prior to 5/15 (i.e. 3 starts instead of 2 probably in this update). His last three starts have probably dropped him out of that extreme category. I think KATOH+ was likely too influenced by his 5/9 start in previous update.

tb3nn3tt
6 years ago
Reply to  Joe Joe

That’s definitely possible… although that third start wasn’t really terrible, either (6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 8 K).

I think McKenzie IS an ‘extreme’ guy – Chris mentioned in the last post that McKenzie was actually KATOH+’s #1 pitching prospect.

Also, it feels like it would be a little weird for a projection system like KATOH+ to move TOO much based on 18 innings, especially when they weren’t really extreme in either direction (18 IP, 22 K, 10 BB, 4 HR)

I guess if McKenzie really missed the list (meaning he’s lowered his prospect stock in KATOH+’s eyes this year), that it would be due to the walk rate creeping into double-digits… I think some of the traditional lists will have him closing in on the top 25 when they update mid-season.