Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/13/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. It’s Trade Value week, so we’ll probably chat about that to a large degree, but with the deadline a few weeks away, plenty of trade rumors to digest as well.

Dave Cameron: So let’s get to it.

Fred: I know you aren’t a prospect guy, but as a concerned Braves fan, I see Dansby Swanson as a solid player, not a great one. Am I missing something?

Dave Cameron: This was basically the Diamondbacks rationale for trading him, so no, I don’t think you’re that far off. He doesn’t have the upside of some of the other top prospects in the game, it doesn’t seem.

Jack C.: It sounds like Alex Bregman will FINALLY be called up this weekend. Everything I have read has him playing 3B once he gets called up, but do you eventually see him taking over SS and having Correa move over to 3B?

Dave Cameron: My guess is they’ll stick with Correa at short. It probably doesn’t matter enough to make a story out of it.

PL: Dave, I’m itching for trades to get started. Does Rich Hill get dealt immediately after his start on Friday?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if the A’s waited this one out, since there are so few other available starters, they don’t really have to worry about someone jumping in and stealing their thunder.

Jack C.: I was pretty confident both Braun and Lucroy were going to get dealt by the deadline. Now, I don’t think Braun gets traded until the offseason. But Lucroy has to go, right? I mean, Boston, Cleveland, Texas, and Houston could use him right about now. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Lucroy will be traded. Braun may go in August.

Zonk: As August pointed out, the Cubs DID just play a really mediocre month of baseball. If you were Theo would that change your deadline plans? Other than LHRP, do they have an urgent priority, in your opinion?

Dave Cameron: Not really, no.

Pale Hose: Hey Dave. Roughly how many spots in trade value should we expect a player to fall due only to losing a year of control?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how many years of control they have left. If they go from six to five, it’s not a huge deal, maybe 5-10 spots. If they go from 3-2, or 2-1, they’ll probably fall far enough to go off the list entirely.

Michael: What percentage would you put for Josh Reddick getting dealt?

Dave Cameron: 99%

Joe: Jon Schoop didn’t make the list and wasn’t included in any of the honorable mentions, but he is a guy you considered?

Dave Cameron: Not really. He’s pretty clearly behind a lot of the guys who ended up in the honorable mentions section, in my view. For instance, I don’t think he’s particularly close in value to Brandon Crawford or Brandon Belt.

Dat Guy: Which is more likely, Benintendi traded or Benintendi called up?

Dave Cameron: Called up, by a lot.

Jack: Yoan Moncada gets called up in ________ of 2017, and he plays _______.

Dave Cameron: June, 3rd base.

Erik: Is there always a fear of lockout/strike with every round of CBA negotiations, or would we have heard rumors by now if there was a chance of things getting ugly?

Dave Cameron: There’s always a chance of that, but the odds this time around seem extremely low.

Zonk: We all chided the Indians for doing nothing to upgrade their OF, and here they are…..one of the top OF WAR in the majors. Even Marlon Byrd was good. Are the Indians smarter than us?

Dave Cameron: The answer to your question can be yes without the Indians having foreknowledge that this group was going to perform like this.

JD: Sounds like Andrew Miller is available. Team most likely to get him and how much will they have to give up?

Dave Cameron: Cubs. They have plenty of guys they can move and the most glaring need.

BravesWin: Future Games observation: Alex Reyes will will ROY in the NL THIS SEASON if the Cards bring him up NOW and put him in the rotation.

Dave Cameron: Corey Seager exists.

hscer: With 2 arbitration years left and a very good but still underwhelming first half, should we not be surprised if/when Bryce Harper ranks outside the top 3 in trade value this year?

Dave Cameron: No, you shouldn’t.

mtsw: What would you estimate the odds that Mike Trout is traded in the next 13 months to be?

Dave Cameron: Probably 5%. But if you stretched it to 18 months, to cover the 2017 offseason, I’d go higher, maybe 25%.

Noah: What’s your opinion on the young relievers from the Brewers this year going into the deadline?

Dave Cameron: I think they are in a great position, especially if Smith has a good few weeks leading up to the deadline. They could potentiall restock an entire team’s relief corps.

Brett Lawrie’s Empty Redbull Can: Hey Dave, enjoying the trade value series as always (obligatory “what about Player X!?!?” gripe). Wonder if you’ll be doing the Anti-trade value series again this year as well?

Dave Cameron: I will. Probably run it next week, most likely.

Daniel: When discussing trade values with those in the game, do you actually phase discussion as “Would you do a 1-for-1 trade involving these two?” ever?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Had a lot of discussions with guys with various teams about what kinds of swaps they’d make.

Owen: What would a Drew Pomeranz to Boston trade look like? Seems like he’s getting somewhat overlooked as a deadline option. His breakout seems pretty legitimate and he’s controlled through 2018–long enough for it to be worthwhile to give up real assets for him, but not long enough for the Padres to realistically consider him a post-rebuild core piece (as the Braves might say about Teheran).

Dave Cameron: Would imagine the Padres would want a guy like Devers as a headliner, plus some other stuff. They’re going to hang a high price tag on him.

Erik: Lots of prospects ranking quite high on your trade value rankings. Is that reflecting a league-wide wide shift in player valuation, and if so, what’s behind that shift?

Dave Cameron: Yes, the game is getting younger in a hurry, and teams are adjusting their valuations to account for this. With everyone now skeptical that players will age well, no one wants to give up players that might perform just as well for a fraction of the cost and get stuck with a guy on the decline.

Mark P: B Belt or F Freeman? Similar production and remaining contract. Who would you rather have?

Dave Cameron: Belt.

JD: If the season ended today would Bryant or Kershaw be the NL MVP?

Dave Cameron: I’d vote Kershaw. Not sure about the voters.

Erik: Who is the hypothetical trade partner in your trade value series? A playoff contender? An average team? Whichever team will pay the most?

Dave Cameron: The aggregate demand of the league as a whole. The buyers wouldn’t be the same for Moncada and Harper, but the market would still bear out their value through bidding wars for both.

stanton’s home run bat: since you talked about lucroy to the red sox, do you believe that also acquiring another starter (say j. guerra) in any deal would help “sweeten the pot”?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Guerra isn’t a Dombrowski type though.

Andrew: Seeing as he didn’t make your Trade Value list or honorable mention, what’s your long-term outlook on Odubel Herrera?

Dave Cameron: I like Odubel, and I think he’s a valuable piece, but he’s also a guy who was a rule 5 guy 18 months ago. Like with Jose Quintana, it might take teams a while to get over the fact that they missed on him as a minor leaguer.

Erik: Does Harper still deserve to be in the same tier as Trout? Or is he best placed in the next tier along with Machado, Bogaerts, etc?

Dave Cameron: Harper is not in Trout’s tier this year, no. He’s still super valuable, but not at the top.

Tom: If the Red Sox win the division and Ortiz keeps up his current pace, how high could he finish in the MVP voting?

Dave Cameron: Top 3, probably. Think Donaldson/Trout have to be 1-2 at this point.

Okra: This offseason, do you think the Pirates trade Austin Meadows or make room for him by moving one of Marte/McCutch/Polanco? Going to be a tough call

Dave Cameron: I think they can push the decision for another year. Spending a few more months in Triple-A won’t kill Meadows, will get them an extra service time year, and can let them figure out if they’re contenders in 2017 or not.

jeff : I saw you mention in passing in the comments section for one of your Trade Value posts that the AL is the superior league. Is this really the case?

Dave Cameron: Yes, and it’s been that way for a while.

Zach: In the intro to the Trade Value piece, you mentioned that teams still don’t really pay for defense (re: Simmons trade). What’s your opinion as to why? Too variable? We’re not measuring it right? Declines too quickly?

Dave Cameron: More uncertainty surrounding it, harder to project it going forward, ability to potentially mask it with positioning/shifting, tradition.

Slew: August’s glowing article notwithstanding, Naquin and his .418 BABIP are fool’s gold, right?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Gest: Can you educate me on what Super 2 is?

Dave Cameron: Guys who end up in the top 20% of service time among players with 2+ years of service get to go to arbitration a year early. Generally, this means that guys like Bryant, who get called up right after the service time window passes, get four arbitration trips instead of three.

Guest: Would a long term deal for Springer make sense for the Astros? he’s about to hit arb would something like 6/110 work for both sides?

Dave Cameron: That seems way too steep. Even as a Super Two, he probably won’t get more than $40-$50M in his arb years, so you’d be paying $30 million a year for two free agent years.

JTT: Given J-Ups struggles this year combined with the struggles his brother had at a similar age (I know it isn’t fair), theres basically no chance he opts out after next year right? He’d have to have a pretty monster year

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the Tigers are probably stuck with that deal now.

Michael: Re: Lucas Giolito – To this amateur his stuff looked “meh” and his minor league numbers aren’t that great. Specifically his K/BB and WHIP rates which suggest command issues. Why are scouts so high on him?

Dave Cameron: I think Petriello noted that the spin rates on his fastball and curve are near top of the scale; stuff isn’t always just about velocity, though he has that too.

CameronDaClub: In your series, you’ve mentioned a few times the lack of quality arms available right now. Are your player valuations meant to reflect the specifics of today’s market? Or more reflect how a player would be valued on a “standard” (whatever that might mean) market?

Dave Cameron: The Trade Value series is a snapshot in time, and reflects what we know about a player and the market right now.

Dave Cameron: Thus, Carpenter missing the list because he’s currently hurt, even though it’s not a long-term serious injury.

Guest: Any non obvious tips for a soon to be dad? having a baby girl in september.

Dave Cameron: People mean well, but you’ll drive yourself crazy listening to everyone’s advice. Pick a good pediatrician and trust them, and then just smile and nod at everyone who tells you they’ve figured out the magic secret.

Okra: Manfred stated that he is concerned about attracting young and minority fans/talent to MLB. Isn’t it time ownership starts trying to put game *on* tv instead of severely restricting access to local team broadcasts? I know tv $$$ are very important but so is exposure and engagement. Thought?

Dave Cameron: It’s the cable companies who are the ones requiring blackouts to drive up subscription rates, not the owners. You could argue the owners are being shortsighted in making those deals, but the money is so large that it’s probably tough to turn those offers down.

Erik: To understand better why Kershaw isn’t on the trade value list: am I right in understanding that even though the dodgers wouldn’t move him for anyone other than maybe the top 2 or 3, no team would offer any of the players on the list, due to his opt out? So in a way he’s both about 5th and about 205th, meaning it was easier to leave him off entirely?

Dave Cameron: Well, I think the Dodgers would move him for some of the guys in the very top tier, but yes, he’s insanely valuable to LA, but far less so to any other team, because of the right to void the contract. The gap between what he’s worth in a trade and what he’s worth to LA makes a trade basically untenable for both sides; Kershaw would be the only winner in that deal, since he’d get to free agency earlier.

Daniel: Do GMs pester one another and bother one another about a player? Would someone continue to ask for Benintendi to try and wear Dombrowski down?

Dave Cameron: That’s how Anthopolous got Josh Donaldson.

The Man: Is Odor really that much better/different than Schoop?

Dave Cameron: He’s two years younger, which matters a lot at those ages.

Erik: Where would Kershaw rank on the list without his opt out clause?

Dave Cameron: Without the opt-out if traded? Probably in the top 10, as he still has an opt-out even from LA’s contract after 2018, so he’s got the same remaining control as Harper/Machado/Donaldson/Fernandez. But if he didn’t have that opt-out either, and was locked in through the rest of the deal? Up near Trout and the elite young shortstops.

alfred pennypacker: I was surprised to see Salvador Perez on your trade value article day 1. Team friendly contract at the quarterback position of baseball position, and already has 2 WS appearances. He’s on his way to becoming the next Molina / Posey in that regard (key cogs of championship teams). Mike Trout controls Mike Trout. Salvador Perez controls half the team, not to mention every game. Are there really 43 other players that would command more than him in a trade? He’s the guy, if i’m a GM, that i’m building around with my 1st pick.

Dave Cameron: Baseball is not football. Catchers do not have the same impact as a quarterback.

Jake: It seems like Piscotty is going to miss the trade value list / honorable mentions. What caused him to come up short?

Dave Cameron: He was in the honorable mentions.

Alex: Who has more value, Miller or Betances?

Dave Cameron: Betances.

M.O.: Clark and Manfred’s comments were depressing. Any idea if there’s fair wages on the horizon?

Dave Cameron: Manfred represents the owners, Clark represents MLB players. Neither of them represent the interests of minor league players. We shouldn’t really expect them to stick up for people they aren’t responsible for. We can want them to, and believe they should, but that’s not what their employers are paying them to do.

Jim: If you had to guess where Encarnacion and Bautista play opening day 2017, where for each?

Dave Cameron: Guessing Bautista will end up realizing he isn’t getting a long-term deal, and takes three years to re-sign in Toronto. Encarnacion goes to, I don’t know, maybe Texas?

Naquinto Hotels: Is the MiLB labor issue just owners being cheapskates? There are so many reasons to pay their MiLB players–morally, it is the right thing to do; players not worried about money can focus on improving; more money = better health, better eating, etc. This seems like a ‘market inefficiency’ some enterprising team should take up.

Dave Cameron: It will eventually happen. Mark Cuban dragged the NBA owners into the 21st century when he bought the Mavericks. Some team will eventually make a move on this, and everyone will follow.

Joel: Are you higher on the Orioles or Blue Jays in the 2nd half?

Dave Cameron: Blue Jays.

Drew: Will there be a prospect list midseason update this year? Kileys from last year was top-notch

Dave Cameron: Eric did mostly draft/amateur stuff at ESPN this spring, so he doesn’t feel like he’s laid the necessary groundwork to put out a list he’d feel comfortable with, so not this year. But he’s going to get our team lists out a lot earlier this year, so we’re not that far off from having updated rankings here on FG.

Kevin: Is it just confirmation bias, or does it seem that there has been a massive increase amount of players suddenly making radical improvements (i.e. Pomeranz, Hill, Murphy, Shoemaker, Lamb, etc.)? Are teams getting better at implementing mechanical adjustments?

Dave Cameron: I do think teams are getting better at development. I think we’re going to enter an age where player acquisition is emphasized less than it has been, and player development is emphasized more.

hscer: I’m sure this is just an academic question, but what would be the effect of moving free agency up a year, whether by removing one arbitration year or one pre-arb year?

Dave Cameron: You’d essentially be making things easier for high-revenue teams at the expense of low-revenue teams. The ROI on scouting/player development would go down, and teams with big MLB payrolls could buy more productive years in free agency.

Dave Cameron: On the plus side, more pitchers would get paid before their arms exploded.

Rick: Which player gave you the most difficulty in assigning a trade-value ranking (whether because of injury concerns, a high upside/high risk combination, or other issues)?

Dave Cameron: Gerrit Cole. Just really hard to pin down what a guy on the DL with an arm problem is worth.

Zonk: Given that he is still in pre-Arb, and Trout is getting expensive, I wonder if Kris Bryant isn’t your #1 this year….

Dave Cameron: He’s in the mix. I will say that this is, by far, the most difficult year to pick the top spot. There are a bunch of strong contenders. This isn’t Trout in a runaway anymore.

JH: Kyle Seager just completed the best half-season of his career. I know he’s too old and expensive to get serious consideration for the top-50 spots on the trade value list, but do you think he’s close? I’d think teams would give up a fair amount of value for a 28-y/o proven 4-win player in the middle of a power spike that’s got him on pace for a 6-win season, even with his $19 million salary kicking in soon.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I could have mentioned him in the honorable mentions; he’s clearly worth a good amount, given his overall value. But he’s also pretty clearly behind guys like Belt/Crawford, I think, and I couldn’t list every good player in the game.

dancing dan mcgrrrraw : Fernendez for Beintindi and Moncada

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Boston does that, even as aggressive as Dombrowski is. One of the two and some other stuff, but not both.

Scott: Your alma mater has exploded. Nothing is safe from the sprawl of UNCG. I’m just waiting for them to buy out Beef Burger.

Dave Cameron: That’s why I’m moving to Oregon…

Brett Lawrie’s Empty Redbull Can: I wonder about the trade value of a guy like Roberto Osuna. Still only 21, proven he can get big league hitters out, has the repertoire of a starter and seems like the Jays will try him as a starter in the future. Would he need to prove he can start at the big league level to be in the discussion?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

The Former Chief, Scott: I don’t know how to feel about some of these outrageous team friendly deals that are out there. Goldschimdt should fire his agent, rehire him and then fire him again because he gave up all his prime years for 10 cents on the dollar

Dave Cameron: Well, it’s not that bad; his prime years were arbitration years, so it’s not like he could have gotten to free agency any sooner. But yeah, the timing of that extension wasn’t so great for him.

Michael: Spin rates is really what you’re going to use to justify Giolito?

Dave Cameron: The question was why scouts are high on him; that’s one of the reasons.

Concerned White Sox Fan: Any chance Shields opts out?

Dave Cameron: Sure, if Zika comes to Chicago en masse.

Dave Cameron: (No)

Boston Dan: Moncada looks amazing but even if he turns into a superstar, he’ll cost +40 mil in arbitration, so it’s really a $100 mil deal over 7 years. Still worth it?

Dave Cameron: By a ton. Have you seen what $100 million buys in FA these days?

TheDudeofNY: Who’s this year’s Schwarber/Conforto who gets called up and goes on a torrent for a playoff team?

Dave Cameron: Benintendi.

Eric: Name something that you believe about baseball that the majority of GMs would disagree with.

Dave Cameron: GMs are overpaid.

Dave Cameron: (Front office members in general are underpaid, but the very high price put on the executive level, and the much lower price put on their support staff, is suboptimal.)

Mike_C: I know front offices tend to overvalue their own assets. But, can you think of a recent greater divide in valuation between that of what the Braves think Teheran is worth and what everyone else thinks he is worth?

Dave Cameron: Well, we don’t actually know how much of this is posturing from ATL. If they actually choose to keep him, when there are strong offers on the table, then we can start talking about that.

Barry BonziBuddy: Dave, my favorite thing about your trade value pieces every year is the inevitably histrionic gnashing of teeth in the comment threads. Because, like most people, I love drama. Do you enjoy that aspect of the response too, or do you just find it tiresome?

Dave Cameron: People getting overworked about a fun exercise is always weird to me.

Zorak: Beyond the blackout, shouldn’t MLB adopt the NBA’s position that any sharing of highlights on vine/youtube/etc is free advertising for the league and shouldn’t be subject to such draconian take-down rules?

Dave Cameron: Different TV rights deals in MLB than the NBA.

ChopChop: Pick your third baseman for the next 5 years.

Dave Cameron: Machado.

Wayne: Do you think the Braves keep both Julio and Viz?

Dave Cameron: If they do, they’re crazy.

Robbie: If you had to pick a team that had a bad first half to have a much better second half who would you pick and why?

Dave Cameron: Did STL have a “bad” first half? If so, them.

Colt Holt: In regard to the question of who would you trade for who, is it safe to assume, a team would not trade for someone only marginally better (ie number 13 vs 14) because of the risk of backlash if it went wrong that would outweigh marginal returns? Assuming positional need and control time are consistent.

Dave Cameron: Yes, there are frictional costs that keep teams from moving similarly valuable assets for each other.

Barry BonziBuddy: re: player development possibly eclipsing player acquisition in the future, why would that be? Improved medical technology/techniques filtering into baseball?

Dave Cameron: Not just medical, but greater understanding of how to help players maximize their physical abilities. If you can buy a +2 WAR player and turn him into a +3 WAR player, that’s much cheaper than buying a +3 WAR player.

Erik: “I think we’re going to enter an age where player acquisition is emphasized less than it has been, and player development is emphasized more.” That’s way more significant than it sounds, right? Or did you mean it in a very toned-down way? Seem like it would have huge ramifications.

Dave Cameron: I think it will have pretty big ramifications. Teams aren’t going to abandon player acquisition, but I would bet that we eventually learn that some coaches/coordinators/trainers are worth a ton, and the market starts paying them like it.

Northsider: Have you completed the trade value list or are you still tinkering?

Dave Cameron: It’s basically done, but every night, I end up tinkering a little bit before writing the blurbs. Even this morning, I was talking with some friends in the game about the top 10, and how it should shake out.

Joe: On an average day, how much work does a GM do? I know it’s probably higher during deadline season, but it’s not like teams make acquisitions or recall players every day.

Dave Cameron: A lot of work. At the higher levels (GM/President of BB Ops), a good chunk of their time is devoted to dealing with ownership.

Josh in DC: Wait … you expect Benintendi to be a GREAT player THIS year? That seems like a reach, but I’m a Red Sox fan, so I’ll take it!

Dave Cameron: Not saying he’ll be great, but I could see him being a league average hitter with terrific defense and baserunning value.

ChopChop: Why Machado over Arenado? (Not that I wouldn’t necessarily do the same, just want to know.)

Dave Cameron: Less risk with Machado, since you don’t have to figure out what happens to him outside of Coors. Both are awesome.

Boston Dan: What would Kershaw get in free agency if he were available this winter after a season like this?

Dave Cameron: 6/$275M, maybe?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think MLB teams would jump to $50M per year for a player yet, but he’d blow past $40M.

Ed in Iowa: In another FG chat the moderator (It might have been Eric), responded to a question about whether Eloy Jimenez could be the centerpiece of a trade for a high end reliever by saying that he wouldn’t trade Jimenez for ANY reliever. That’s hyperbole, no?! Surely you would trade Jimenez for Bettances, right?

Dave Cameron: I would, yes.

still too late: i’m catching up so i apologize if this was already asked, but the kershaw opt out clause is something i don’t recall seeing before. is his talent/value more of a reason for this or is his agent just that savvy?

Dave Cameron: Alex Guerrero had the same clause in his deal. LAD liked to offer that one, for some reason.

Dave Cameron: It actually used to be a standard provision in player contracts, maybe 10 years ago, something like that.

Erik: ” I would bet that we eventually learn that some coaches/coordinators/trainers are worth a ton.” This contrasts with the general sabermetric wisdom that the manager isn’t worth much, right? Or are you referring to assistants?

Dave Cameron: Well, the manager isn’t generally doing a lot of development himself; he’s meeting with the media, dealing with players and the front office.

Dave Cameron: But it’s possible that managers can create an environment where development is more likely, even if they aren’t doing it themselves.

DG: Would it be possible for a reliever to make it onto the Top 50 Trade Value list? If so, how good would he have to be?

Dave Cameron: It’d be tough. Probably require a move towards relievers throwing more innings than they do now, and some kind of fireman role where the reliever showed he could put up 80-100 innings a year without breaking down.

Barry: Is the all star week a place for GM’s to lay trade groundwork like the winter meetings?

Dave Cameron: No, most GMs don’t go to the All-Star Game. It’s the closest thing front office members get to a vacation during the year.

Dave Cameron: On that note, I’m going to wrap this up. Back with the last two parts of the Trade Value series tomorrow and Friday, so stay tuned for a pretty fun group of talent.