Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/6/16

Dave Cameron: Alright, we’re a little over three weeks from the trade deadline, and a week away from that All-Star Game thing, so let’s go ahead and chat about either or both of those things. Or other things.

Slew: How good are the Indians? Related: What trade deadline changes would you suggest for them?

Dave Cameron: Maybe I’m being overly stubborn, but I still don’t see them as an elite team; they look like a solid average-to-above-average club that is getting some nice performances that won’t last. Rajai Davis is playing at a +4 WAR pace, Tyler Naquin even better than that. I wouldn’t want to count on those guys in October. They should be looking for outfield upgrades.

Houzer : Trade idea? Tigers send Ian Kinsler to the Dodgers for Howie Kendrick and Willie Calhoun. Kinsler and Kendrick make about the same and are both FA’s after next season. So the Tigers get a MLB stopgap until Calhoun is ready, and the Dodgers get an upgrade for this season without taking on new salary.

Dave Cameron: Kinsler is worth more than that.

Seth: do you have any players in mind you expect to get traded during the waiver trade month after aug 1?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if Braun was an August trade.

a pesky pole: Josh Donaldson! – with normal age decline HOF or no?

Dave Cameron: Got started too late.

Steve : % chance Chapman gets traded? Miller?

Dave Cameron: 90%. 60%.

Thatguy: David Stearns made a ton of off season trades and moves, yet his most successful move has been the low key waiver claim of Junior Guerra, how bout that?

Dave Cameron: That’s kind of the point of making a ton of moves; you’re just hoping to find some nice values by sheer quantity.

Nick: Who’s coming back down to Earth (more) in the 2nd half?: Ian Desmond or Dan Murphy?

Dave Cameron: Desmond, though both are good players.

Seth: thoughts on sonny gray–can he put together a string of good starts and bring back a haul for the a’s?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if he has a few good outings over the next couple of weeks, he’ll still bring back a big return.

West Coast Wreck: With the RedSox seeking a LH Left Fielder and the Braves desperately needing a catcher. Is Swihart for Inciarte a perfect match?

Dave Cameron: Not sure Swihart is a catcher, and no real reason for Red Sox to block Benintendi.

Bake McBride: What do the Cardinals need to do to get over this mediocre hump? A single bullpen arm can’t be the answer. Reyes for Sale?

Dave Cameron: Well, sure, if you could trade one pitching prospect currently scuffling in Triple-A for the best pitcher in the AL, that would help.

Pale Hose: If there is non-linear value to adding bats to an already good lineup, then does that imply glove only players are more valuable on already poor hitting teams than on good hitting teams?

Dave Cameron: Relatively, yes. Putting an offensive black hole in a good line-up will cost more runs than putting that same guy in a bad line-up.

Steve: Jose Abreu? What’s the deal, man?

Dave Cameron: He looks like he got old fast.

Matty Bum: Would it be reasonable to say that the A’s ended up with a comparable player to Russell in Semien, at least over team control years? Sure didn’t look this close at the time of the Shark trades.

Dave Cameron: In the short-term, Semien is close to Russell, but he’s also a good bit older, so his long-term value is significantly less.

Dave Cameron: But yeah, that series of trades wasn’t the total disaster some make it out to be.

Kevin: That Red Sox article stirred up lots of comments about what a Lucroy trade package would look like. What does his value look like? Is he worth a top 25 prospect?

Dave Cameron: No, it’s still just 1.5 years of control, and elite prospects are too valuable to move for that kind of short-term upgrade. I’d guess you’d be looking at Devers and some throw-ins would be the best MIL could do.

Terry Ryan: Over/under of 1.5 trades I make by July 31st. Which side are you betting on?

Dave Cameron: Over, but they’re probably smaller deals. Santana could be an August trade, so no big rush there.

Dave Cameron: Sorry, internet connection crapped out.

Jonathan Lucroy: I remember you being an advocate of the “keep both Swihart and Vazquez” position. If the Sox acquire Lucroy, would either of them still have even close to the same trade value? Or would you keep all three through 2017?

Dave Cameron: I was in the keep Vazquez camp because I’ve never been a big believer in Swihart. But it seems like BOS is probably done with him as a catcher, and with Benintendi just about to ace him out of left field, his carere in Boston is on the ropes too. He’s likely trade bait.

vulgar pols: Dave: you said yesterday the Red Sox should think about adding another bat rather than an arm, citing the article you wrote about the Jays last year. So should the Orioles think of adding another bat as well? Most fans are clamoring for another starter. Of course, we don’t have a catching problem like the Red Sox.

Dave Cameron: Theoretically, if they had a big glaring hole in the line-up, then yes. But as you note, they don’t really.

Michael: I’m thinking about going to Pitch Talks tomorrow, but I’m a college student. Will I be the youngest one there?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. The crowd at the Pitch Talks in Toronto skewed 20s and 30s, and I’d imagine it will be similar tomorrow. You should totally come.

Eldridge Cleaver: Tulowitzki has been on fire since returning from the DL. His 67 plate appearances in June & July represent just a small sample size, but do you see anything that he is doing to buck the worrisome trends you identified back in early May? Have your expectations changed?

Dave Cameron: The contact rate has spiked back up, which is definitely encouraging; he wasn’t going to be able to hit for enough power to overcome a high strikeout rate. And you always change your expectations when new data is added to the mix, so sure, the outlook for Tulo looks a bit better now than it did a few weeks ago. But the longer-term picture is still that of an aging large middle infielder with health problems. Odds are good that he’s going to be more of a good player than a great player going forward, and how long he can keep up good player level remains to be seen.

John Danielson: You ready to admit how wrong you’ve been about the Rangers for the last couple years? They’re a pretty great team.

Dave Cameron: Only if you believe that sequencing is a skill. Their BaseRuns record is 43-42, putting them in a virtual tie with the Rockies.

Nelson: Way to lose the Brexit and then quit, quitter

Dave Cameron: To be fair to my British namesake, the winners quit too. Lots of quitting going on over there.

joey: Boston would be better off making small trades, rather than the blockbuster everyone seems to expect, right? having even slightly below average starters in their 4th/5th rotation spots would make a pretty big difference

Dave Cameron: I’d probably try to get Lucroy and one of MIL’s relievers (maybe Thornburg), then get Rich Hill back, and maybe add an innings-sponge like Ervin Santana in August.

lady madonna: Hi Dave: what exactly did the Red Sox do wrong with the international players? From what I understand, other teams skirt the rules in a similar fashion. Why were the Sawx singled out for punishment? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: The Red Sox got caught. On the podcast, I compared it to getting a speeding ticket. They were breaking a rule that everyone breaks, but they still knew the risks going into the decision to do it.

Ben: Who is playing third base for the Astros August 1st?

Dave Cameron: Bregman.

Joel: Is there a realistic move that you like for the Dodgers that involves them getting an impact bat? There are a lot of nights where that lineup just doesn’t make any noise.

Dave Cameron: Who are you going to replace? The guys hurting the offense the most over the year are Puig and Gonzalez, and you’re not benchin either of them.

Thomas: What are the chances Donaldson wins MVP again?

Dave Cameron: At this point, he’s probably the favorite, as a lot of writers are going to hold the Angels lousy team against Trout.

Thad Levine: Who are some of the SP the Rangers will be targeting leading up to the deadline? JD hasn’t filled me in yet…

Dave Cameron: Seems like Matt Moore might be a fit for them.

birdwatcher: I know the all-star game selections are just a popularity contest now, but is there no way to reform it some way? Corey Seager made the team but there’s no way Addison Russell should be starting ahead of him.

Dave Cameron: Brandon Crawford got screwed out of a spot on the roster; that’s the larger NL SS problem if you want to get outraged about it.

AJ: Yankees think they can contend today/tomorrow. See Chapman long term with the team. Told Miller he will not be traded. How big of a mistake is this?

Dave Cameron: They did not tell Miller he would not be traded. Go look at his quotes; he even said it was an informal “don’t believe everything you read in the paper” kind of comment, said in passing.

Jean Genie: Why doesn’t Segura get any respect when discussing top young MI?

Dave Cameron: Because he’s not that good?

baltic wolf: Hi Dave: what are the best changes the Orioles can make before the trade deadline? Do you think Fister might be available or perhaps a Hellickson? Our farm system is so thin we can’t win a bidding war for better arms.

Dave Cameron: No reason for the Astros to be sellers. Hellickson could be an option, and does seem like Duquette’s kind of guy.

Guest: Can the Nats, Mets or Giants beat the Cubs in a best of 7?

Dave Cameron: Of course. Anyone can beat anyone in a short series.

Galvanic: What is one change on each roster you would make for the All-Star Game?

Dave Cameron: Brandon Crawford has to be there, so swapping him in for Russell is an easy call in the NL. In the AL, I don’t know how you leave Jose Quintana at home, and Brad Brach doesn’t need to be there.

Rhaegar: Is Chapman & one of the Yankees outfield bats in AAA (i.e. Ben Gamel) get them back Jurickson Profar or Joey Gallo?

Dave Cameron: No

John: Still think the Cubs are the best team in the majors, Cameron?

Dave Cameron: Yes, by a good margin.

Tim: Braves can’t seriously keep Teheran, right? What do you think are his chances of leaving?

Dave Cameron: They shouldn’t, but Coppollela loves pitching, so it’s feasible that they put a higher value on him than they should. I’d probably put his trade odds at 40%.

Neal: Does Boston trade any of their top 3 hitting prospects? If not them, who is available?

Dave Cameron: I could see them moving Devers. I don’t think they’ll trade Benintendi, Moncada, or Espinoza.

CamdenWarehouse: Will the Yankees get more in return for Chapman than they gave up?

Dave Cameron: Well they gave up nothing, so sure.

Bruce: What kind of contract will Valencia get next year? More than 2/20?

Dave Cameron: Valencia isn’t a free agent this winter.

Bullish A’s fan.: Over/under for Marcus Semien’s home runs is 29.5 what do you take?

Dave Cameron: He’s at 18, right? So 11.5 more ROS? That actually sounds about right.

baltic wolf: Vogelbach: does he get traded? The Cubs aren’t going to let him rot in their system are they? (Sorry if this question got asked twice, something happened when I tried the first time and the question disappeared.)

Dave Cameron: He probably does get traded, but he’s not worth that much. A 23 year old bat only guy who projects as a league average hitter isn’t really a particularly valuable player, and even if you think the bat improves some — not a given, with his body type — the upside is Billy Butler or something.

Greg: Assume the Nats were willing to deal Giolito. Who would the Yankees have to add on top of Chapman to make it happen?

Dave Cameron: Every valuable thing they have.

Brandon Belt: Should I start a grassroots movement to end all-star fan voting? Maybe have a fangraphs staff vote instead?

Dave Cameron: The fans do a better job than the players.

Alfonso: Could Bartolo actually draw a QO? If mets decide to move a pitcher this offseason, Bartolo would probably be worth it at 16/1yr if he continues to pitch at a similar caliber. right?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think there’s a big enough market for a 42 year old pitcher to generate that kind of bidding war.

The Cincinnati Kid: Could you give us 3 surprises in the Top 50 for the Trade Value Series?

Dave Cameron: I haven’t ordered the list yet — going to work on it on my flight to Boston this afternoon — but I will note that Mike Trout only barely has the best ZIPS five year forecast; there’s a player expected to pass him as the best player on the planet in a couple of years.

Dave Cameron: Other thing I found interesting: Joe Ross has a better five year ZIPS forecast than Julio Urias.

Shane: Who do you think is the best starting pitcher traded before the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Sonny Gray.

West Coast Wreck: Including Inciarte would allow the Redsox to depart with Benintendi + Swihart + 1other guy to snag Teheran as well.

Dave Cameron: Well, yes, they could lose their minds and make a disastrous trade like that, but they won’t.

E: Do you follow basketball? Thoughts on Durant going to the Warriors?

Dave Cameron: I follow it to some degree, but not enough to be any kind of expert. I do wonder about whether adding another offense-first player is really going to improve GSW that much; every shot Durant takes is one that Curry or Thompson don’t get, most likely, so it’s not like there’s going to be a big improvement in scoring.

hscer: when’s the trade value series come out again?

Dave Cameron: Next week!

Guest: how’s the move coming along?

Dave Cameron: Not moving until the fall. The house sold the first day on the market, though, so that worked out nicely.

brawdley: given their position on the win curve, how aggressive do you think Boston will be at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: You don’t bring in Dave Dombrowski because you’re thinking long-term.

Billy Beane: Any chance I hook up with Zaidi in LA on a Rich Hill trade if the injury bug keeps biting? LAD has a lot of prospects and I have the best rental pitcher.

Dave Cameron: With Norris added, McCarthy back, and Ryu close, the Dodgers probably don’t need Hill at this point. Kershaw/Maeda/Kazmir/McCarthy/Norris/Ryu/Wood is a very good rotation, with two arms to spare.

Dave P: Could the Padres find a trade partner for Kemp if they ate $45M of the remaining ~$70M owed? And if so, is there anything of value coming back?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know who would take Kemp, at this point. The Rangers are the only contender who really needs a DH, and even they could just play Gallo instead.

Adam: Hey Dave, can you name the player with the highest WAR total, whose wRC+ is less than 100?

Dave Cameron: Probably Addison Russell, right?

Dave Cameron: Or maybe his recent hot streak got him back to 100?

Adam: Lorenzo Cain – 98 wRC+ – 1.9 WAR

Dave Cameron: Okay, so it was Russell before yesterday.

Adam: as of yesterday, when I asked this to august, the correct answer was Kevin Pillar.

Nolan: If the Rays could go back in time and scratch the Nationals out of the Wil Myers trade, they do it in a heartbeat, right?

Dave Cameron: For sure.

Pooneod: At what point is segura good in your estimation? You don’t like him – we get it.

Dave Cameron: He has 2300 career plate appearances and a wRC+ of 83. He’s been worth ~+1.5 WAR per season. He’s not good.

Bernie: Does the fact that Lucroy has only about $11M in career salary increase his value to other teams, since that would make him more likely to accept another below-market extension with the team who acquires him?

Dave Cameron: Wouldn’t that make him less likely to take another below market deal, since he hasn’t gotten a big payday yet?

Doug: Boston is looking for a RH 3rd baseman to platoon with Shaw. Is the Angel’s Escobar a good fit?

Dave Cameron: Aaron Hill, in the Lucroy deal.

Dave Cameron: So may BOS-MIL trades make sense.

Crimpton: I’m guessing that mystery player is Machado?

Dave Cameron: It’s not!

Zach: Since you share your name with the former British PM, do people direct a bunch of vitriol towards you on Twitter while not realizing you aren’t THAT Dave Cameron?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I get a decent mix of it. The best was a few years back when someone emailed me their plan to kill Bin Laden, then got really mad when I didn’t answer, and said Scotland Yard was watching him.

Jaack: But you did end up killing bin laden, right?

Dave Cameron: Well he sent me the whole plan to do it…

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to go catch my flight to Boston. You should totally come to Pitch Talks tomorrow night.

Dave Cameron: Hope to see you there.