Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/12/15
11:43 |
: It’s Wednesday, so let’s chat. The queue is now open.
|
11:59 |
: Okay, we’ll kick this off a few minutes early. There’s some chance that this will be an abbreviated week, as our nanny is on vacation and the in-laws are out of town, so I’ve enlisted the help of some friends to watch our kid for a few hours, but there’s some chance this could go the way of the Padres outfield defense, so we’ll see how long he makes it.
|
11:59 |
Do you see the Jays or Yankees making a significant move before the August Deadline ? |
12:00 |
: Yankees make the most sense for Chase Utley. The Blue Jays need an LH outfielder, and so maybe someone like Alejandro De Aza or a guy like that fits.
|
12:00 |
You think Jose Berrios gets the call here soon? |
12:00 |
: The Twins aren’t really in the playoff hunt anymore, so I don’t see a big reason to push him.
|
12:00 |
Brandon Crawford as a power hitting SS: are you buying it going forward? |
12:01 |
: This is probably a peak year, but he does look like he’s made some structural changes.
|
12:01 |
How about David Stearns from HOU or Mike Girsch from STL as GM candidates in Milwaukee? |
12:01 |
: I can’t imagine anyone is going to hire any STL employees while the FBI investigation is ongoing. Too much risk of having it look really bad if it turns out more people were involved than have been reported.
|
12:02 |
: Plan for tomorrow is to have a post on some potential candidates for MIL, though.
|
12:02 |
I’m surely gone this off-season, right? |
12:03 |
: I wouldn’t say it’s a foregone conclusion, but rumors are picking up that Dombrowski is more likely to go to Seattle than Toronto. If they lose out on DD, I’m not 100% sure they’ll fire Jack anyway, but they won’t hesitate to give Dombrowski the keys to the organization if he’ll take the job.
|
12:03 |
What are the chances that Hanley or Panda are traded in August? |
12:03 |
: I’d say almost none with Hanley. Sandoval, I could see a deal with SD, and Shields already cleared waivers, so there’s some chance there.
|
12:03 |
Do the Mets make the playoffs? |
12:03 |
: I’d guess no.
|
12:04 |
If Sale were to be made available in the offseason, what kind of package could he command? |
12:04 |
: A monster package. He’s one of the most valuable trade chips in baseball right now. You’re looking at multiple blue-chippers coming back.
|
12:04 |
Which team in the AL East is best prepared to contend for 2016? |
12:05 |
: Probably the Blue Jays. They’ll get Stroman back, probably re-sign Buehrle, pick up Dickey’s option, and then scrounge around for a fourth starter.
|
12:05 |
What do you think of the Jays’ plan to bring back Stroman as a starter? |
12:06 |
: If he’s healthy enough to pitch, I don’t see why you’d limit him to 20 pitches out the bullpen. He’s either going to be able to push off on his knee or he’s not.
|
12:06 |
Who do you think it was who claimed Puig that the Dodgers had zero interest in working out a deal with? I feel like it was probably one of the highest priority teams. |
12:06 |
: The Phillies should be claiming every player with positive value; I’d imagine it was a team like that.
|
12:07 |
Is John Gibbons a contender for Manager of the Year? Smartly constructed batting order (Tulo, Donaldson, Bautista 1-2-3), good bullpen management, etc. |
12:08 |
: It generally goes to “team that overachieved relative to expectations the most”, so in the AL this year, that’s Houston. I’d bet A.J. Hinch wins it.
|
12:09 |
True or False, Tigers should re-sign Soria to close for them next season |
12:09 |
: I’d say false.
|
12:09 |
Where do you rank Brandon Belt among 1B? |
12:09 |
: Middle of the pack.
|
12:09 |
Which one of these 3 players is likely to be the more productive offensively-speaking over the next 2 to 3 year period: Puig, Betts or Buxton? |
12:09 |
: Betts
|
12:09 |
Rusney Castillo: League-average player? |
12:10 |
: Seems about right. Maybe a tick above average.
|
12:10 |
Fangraphs has the NL East at just about a coinflip. Seem right to you? |
12:10 |
: It’s close, but I still think the Nationals are a better team.
|
12:10 |
What are the odds the Padres trade Shields before August 31? |
12:10 |
: 10%
|
12:10 |
When do you think the Cubs will call up Javier Baez? |
12:10 |
: September 1st
|
12:10 |
There’s a decent possibility of an Angels-Yankees wild card playoff this year. Who do you think starts that game for both teams? Neither seem to have an unquestioned “ace” |
12:10 |
: Pineda and Richards, probably.
|
12:11 |
Was surprised Lorenzo Cain didn’t get any mention in your MVP article. I think he would be my 3rd behind Donaldson and Trout. Hard to see neither of those two winning, but Cain seems to be a strong candidate, no? |
12:12 |
: Cain has turned into an elite player, but he does it in ways that the BBWAA voters generally don’t reward. I think he’ll finish in the 8-10 range, probably.
|
12:12 |
Do you think the Rockies will move Jose Reyes before August 31? |
12:12 |
: Nope.
|
12:12 |
LaRussa and Stewart have taken a lot of heat. The team is playing well. Everyone is coming back next year. There are many pitchers that could contribute next year in the minors along with O Brien on offense. And finally, they have new TV money that starts in 2016. They can sign a TOR pitcher this Winter also if so desired. I really like what they are doing |
12:14 |
: They’ve taken a lot of heat because they’ve screwed up a lot of basic things. It’s a .500 team despite getting career years from Goldschmidt and Pollock. O’Brien has been a barely above average hitter in the PCL, and has no defensive value. This is a mediocre team going nowhere.
|
12:14 |
Given that the Brewers have announced that Counsell will be staying as manager after a new GM is hired, doesn’t that lessen the appeal to potential candidates outside the organization? Do you see Ray Montgomery as a current front runner? |
12:17 |
: Yeah, the fact that Counsell is sticking around, and that Montgomery is probably going to be given some increased responsibilities even if he isn’t named the GM, means that you’re probably not going to see the most often rumored guys going there.
|
12:17 |
According you this site’s projections, the Nationals are expected to have the second-highest win percentage of any team RoS. Do you believe they will meet that projection? |
12:18 |
: Depends on health. They’ve been a .550 team despite half their roster missing the season. If Werth, Rendon, Span, Strasburg, and the rest can stay healthy, they’re still very good.
|
12:18 |
: Or in Span’s case, I guess “get healthy” is more accurate.
|
12:18 |
Do you not like blankets cause you’re #TeamComforter ? |
12:18 |
: I do like blankets. Usually prefer thin ones over big thick monsters that keep you from moving.
|
12:19 |
How does a teams cumulative WAR correlate to their W-L record? Shouldn’t the team with the most WAR be the best team? |
12:19 |
: WAR is context neutral, so it doesn’t account for any kinds of sequencing, which can have a big impact on W-L record; just ask the A’s about that. It’s also a linear model, where team run scoring is not linear, so at the team level, it’s better to use something like BaseRuns.
|
12:20 |
Will Starlin Castro clear waivers if he hasn’t already? |
12:20 |
: I’d bet the Padres would claim him.
|
12:20 |
Looking at stats from 10-15 years ago, it looks like there were a fair number of 9+ win seasons from pitchers (Pedro, Johnson, Maddux, Clemens). Kershaw has never topped 8, even though he’s considered historically great. Is there something about the way WAR is calculated that lets pitchers at the right tail put up higher WAR totals in higher scoring environments (and vice-versa for hitters), did they pitch more innings, or were they just better than Kershaw, or what? |
12:21 |
: We were spoiled by having four of the ~10 best pitchers of all time all active simultaneously. Kershaw is amazing, but he’s not quite at their level. Few are.
|
12:22 |
Best bullpen arm that could clear waivers? |
12:22 |
: K-Rod, maybe?
|
12:22 |
Is Matt Williams going to be let go in an effort to shake up the under performing team? |
12:22 |
: Unlikely, but if the Nationals miss the playoffs, he might end up looking for work. He’s not very good at his job.
|
12:23 |
Statcast: broken? Currently unusable? |
12:24 |
: Interesting, but not currently all that helpful for answering questions given what MLB is releasing. This seems like a beta-test year, where they are just working out some kinks. It still has potential to be amazing, but right now, it’s more of a prospect than a guy you stick in the line-up.
|
12:24 |
Jung Ho Kang didn’t make your Top 50 rankings for trade value, understandably so given the small sample size at the time. Given his continued production and the seemingly huge bargain the Pirates have for the next 3 years, would he now crack your list if you re ranked today? |
12:25 |
: No. It’s still only a half-season of production at the big league level from a 28 year old.
|
12:26 |
Justin Upton apparently tied the season record for HR at Petco in one season. The record is 15. Petco is amazing. |
12:26 |
: Petco isn’t as pitcher friendly as it used to be.
|
12:27 |
Hi Dave, imagine you’re a Brit based in London town, a long time Jays fan dating back to your childhood summers in Ontario. Your wife is Canadian, you’ve a seven month old who hasn’t been to Canada yet. Currently your plan is to go to Toronto in 2016. Do you do all in your power to change that plan and get to some games this year? Or will the Jays still be awesome next year? Thanks. |
12:28 |
: I’m ~3 weeks away from flying across the country with a seven month old (well, eight month old by then), and I’m not looking forward to it. I can’t imagine flying across the Atlantic with a baby. I’d probably wait until next year, just for the ease of having your kid be able to walk around the airport.
|
12:28 |
Chances Mets resign Cespedes? Definitely gets QO? |
12:28 |
: Slim, and he’s not eligible for a QO.
|
12:28 |
Per playoff odds – LAD and STL have almost exactly the same odds of reaching the NLDS, but LAD’s odds of winning the WS are more than double. Am I reading this correctly? I assume it’s accounting for the Kershaw/Greinke effect, but that does seem like quite a significant difference… |
12:30 |
: Our projections love the Dodgers, and think they’re by far the best team in baseball. Keep in mind that there’s something like a 12 win swing in BaseRuns between LA (who has underachieved) and STL (who has overachieved), and our system doesn’t care about those wins from sequencing, so public perception is going to have those two closer than we do.
|
12:30 |
In your opinion, who has the brightest future of the young Mets pitchers? |
12:30 |
: Syndergaard.
|
12:31 |
SHOULD Sale be made available? It seemed like they were on a great path and then made the “go for it” mistake. |
12:31 |
: The White Sox have decided they’d rather try to win in the short-term with Sale/Abreu. I don’t think that’s the right call, but they’re committed to it at this point, and it’s past the point of walking that decision back.
|
12:32 |
Why would the Padres trade Shields, a productive player going through an uncharacteristic patch of meatballitis, for Sandoval, who’s been the worst player in baseball this year? To save $4M a year? |
12:32 |
: It wouldn’t be straight up.
|
12:32 |
Think the Braves have any chance to bring Heyward back? Where do you see him landing? |
12:33 |
: Doubt they have any interest at the price he’s going to command. I could see the Dodgers making a run at him if they trade Puig this winter, which is widely expected to happen.
|
12:33 |
If the Jays make the playoffs and the Angels don’t, what are the chances Donaldson wins MVP over Trout? Close to 0? |
12:34 |
: I’d say close to 80-90%, with Price probably as the only variable there. The voters have made it clear that they’re not giving the MVP to a non-playoff guy when they don’t have to.
|
12:34 |
According to your Manager of the Year definition, if the Mets make the playoffs can Terry Collins win it? |
12:34 |
: Yep, he’d be the likely candidate.
|
12:35 |
Year/$ predictions for Heyward, Upton, Cespedes this winter? |
12:36 |
: 8/180, and then ~6/140 for the two sluggers.
|
12:37 |
Is team WAR valid? I’ve looked at AL WAR for each team to date and I found Royals 4th, Cleve 5th, Angels 9th and Twins 15th! That’s 25% inaccurate which is really high. |
12:37 |
: WAR isn’t “inaccurate” because it doesn’t align with team win-loss records perfectly. It isn’t designed to, because team W-L records include a lot of things that aren’t player-skills.
|
12:38 |
Buccos fan who argued with a Buccos writer. He wondered who’d hang up first if the Pirates and Mets discussed Kang for Degrom, Harvey or Thor. I love Kang, but I think the Mets would laugh and hang up. He thinks it’d be a lot closer. Even given Kang’s great contract, he’s crazy, right? |
12:38 |
: Yeah, no way do the Mets consider swapping one of those three for Kang.
|
12:38 |
: Unless they know something about Harvey’s medicals or something, but assuming they’re all healthy, no chance.
|
12:39 |
Michael Brantley has hit .398 since the break, leads the ML’s in doubles, plays stellar defense in LF, finished 3rd in MVP voting in 2015 and is a team leader… Where’s the MVP-Love for him? |
12:39 |
: He’s 17th in the AL in WAR on a losing team. He has no chance, nor should he.
|
12:40 |
How do you see the AL cy Young shaping up? Kluber wont win with 15 Ls, Sale has not enough wins and too high an ERA, is it Price’s to lose at this point? |
12:40 |
: Sonny Gray and Dallas Keuchel also have a case. Chris Archer is in the mix too.
|
12:41 |
Nick Cafardo is claiming Red Sox should trade Bogaerts for Harvey – which team hangs up on that offer? I assume Red Sox |
12:41 |
: Yeah, no real reason for Boston to do that.
|
12:42 |
You have previously suggested that Jason Heyward may get close to $200 million in the offseason. How confident are you in that projection? Feels a bit high. |
12:44 |
: He’ll get close. He’s going to be a 26 year old coming off a +4 WAR season (+5 WAR if he finishes strong) with a good track record. At worst, you could see him as a younger version of Jacoby Ellsbury, who got $152 million. Add in inflation and youth, and I’d say $160-$170 million is his floor. Whether he cracks $200 million depends on who bids.
|
12:45 |
What is the likelihood the Dodgers new front office trades Yasiel Puig this offseason? I imagine it is pretty high, and I am a Dodgers fan. |
12:45 |
: Everyone I know in baseball expects Puig to get traded this winter.
|
12:45 |
Who would you have valued higher as a trade chip for Price; Sanchez or Norris? |
12:45 |
: Norris, by a lot.
|
12:46 |
If the Jays end up in the wildcard game, does it make more sense to throw Price out there for it, or is there a case to be made to treat it more as a bullpen game and try to save Price to get 2 games in the division round? |
12:46 |
: I’d always go bullpen game in an elimination contest.
|
12:47 |
Looking ahead to ’16, what are the key moves CHC need to make to get to next level? The obvious things is to say “sign David Price”. Is it something more subtle like a mid-rotation SP signing or trade and someone like Heyward? |
12:48 |
: Yeah, I think they need bats more than arms. An outfielder, a better second baseman (with Russell moving to short full-time), and a back-end starter is probably a better plan than throwing money at Price.
|
12:49 |
But at the same time, John Lackey put up a string of 5-ish win seasons early in his career, which is comparable to Chris Sale. I get that those four guys are some of the best pitchers ever, but things just made me wonder if it any of it could be a bias resulting from the era. If a replacement pitcher would have an ERA of 6.50 then by 5.00 now, wouldn’t it be harder for the very best pitchers to add value today? You can only give up so few runs per game. |
12:50 |
: If the very best pitchers are giving up only 3.00 runs per nine innings less than a replacement level pitcher instead of 4.5 runs per nine innings, then they aren’t as good.
|
12:50 |
Re: flying with young ones. In my experience it’s ok as long as you go in to it knowing it’s a high-leverage playoff situation- all hands on deck. Throw out the rules. You limit screen time at home? Great, but on the plane have several of their favorite shows loaded up on the tablet. Have stickers/small toys to give to them at various intervals out of a mystery bag. Have favorite snacks to distribute every half hour or so. |
12:50 |
: So my “drug him” plan isn’t recommended?
|
12:51 |
I have 2 young kids and travel with them a lot. Much easier to travel when they are in a stroller or carrier, before they can walk. Unless you enjoy chasing after them non-stop. Also flights are free from 0-2. |
12:52 |
: Lots of parents chiming in telling me I’m wrong about flying with mobile children. I’ll defer to them. Fly to Toronto now, apparently, earlier question guy.
|
12:53 |
Why do you dismiss Kang because it’s “only been half a season of production” but say Syndergaard has a brighter future than DeGrom and Harvey despite Thor only doing it for “half a season”? |
12:53 |
: We have Syndergaard’s minor league performances too, which are more informative than Kang’s Korean league numbers.
|
12:54 |
: And tools wise, Syndergaard > Kang by a lot.
|
12:54 |
Going off your comments in the podcast, I’ve got to imagine that Carl Crawford clears waivers – any chance the Dodgers and Jays can work out a trade? LH OF and any salary taken on by the Blue Jays is savings to the Dodgers |
12:55 |
: I bet they’ll go cheaper. You can get a guy like de Aza, who is of similar value, without taking on any money.
|
12:56 |
I took your comments about not using ad-blocker software to heart, and turned it off on my browser. I’m a state employee on a crappy 5-year-old PC with very little RAM. Anyway, now that I have it off, FanGraphs routinely causes my machine to bog down to unusable levels. When I look at the task manager, the FG tab is routinely using 5x the amount of memory of any other process (even the dwm). Who can I bring this up to? It’s almost certainly your ad service, but I don’t want you guys to not get paid; FanGraphs is like 90% of what gets me through my workday (the other 10% is coffee). |
12:56 |
: We’re aware of it, and trying to fix it. I wish I could say it was something we were in control of and could just turn off, but unfortunately, it’s not quite that easy.
|
12:57 |
There is some logic to Boston possibly dealing Bogaerts tho. Hanley only real value is at SS given the stick may not stand out at 1B. If they can clear 3B maybe he works there. Not seeing who’d deal for Panda tho. I don’t get the Shields swap from the Pads side at all… |
12:57 |
: Hanley will never play SS in the big leagues again.
|
12:57 |
Just realized this: now with Melvin gone, who will inherit the crown of WORST GM IN BASEBALL? |
12:57 |
: Ruben Amaro hasn’t been fired yet.
|
12:58 |
Can you elaborate on why you go with a bullpen game in an elimination game? |
1:00 |
: The times through the order penalty and the inability to get the platoon advantage by using a starter make it more likely that even an ace will give up more runs than running through a bunch of relievers. And since you can set your roster for just that one game, you can load up on specialists and shut down an opposing offense while still having your #1 starter available to make two starts in the division series.
|
1:00 |
Giants, Cubs or 2nd place finisher in the NL East- who gets the final WC spot in the NL? |
1:00 |
: Cubs
|
1:01 |
Do you get paid for running ads even if I never click on them? |
1:01 |
: Yep. Clicks don’t really have anything to do with it; we get paid per ad impression.
|
1:02 |
: Alright, that’s going to be it for me today. Thanks for hanging out everyone.
|
1:02 |
: Eno will be here tomorrow, and I’ll be back next Wednesday.
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Dave you’re the best. No sarcasm here. I swear.
damnit this sounds like sarcasm.
I just want Dave to know that people appreciate him. seems some folks like to pile on during chats, which is insane….
I was just about to post something similar… some people have really been giving it to Dave lately for having an opinion that doesn’t mirror their’s. Or jumping on him for not knowing every stat off the top of his head. In a chat format, you don’t have the time to research your answer… it’s very similar to the treatment KLaw gets from some of his readers.