Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/16/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday everyone.

Dave Cameron: Let’s talk some baseball.

The Average Sports Fan: Last week you dismissed the Cardinals as a legit playoff contender.  The Cubs are still disappointing, and Cardinals are only 1.5 games back.  Sticking to your guns?

Dave Cameron: I didn’t dismiss the Cardinals; I said their WC hopes probably leaned more on COL/AZ falling apart than hoping the Cubs keep struggling.

Dave Cameron: That remains true. The Cubs are a very good team. If you think they’re going to suck for the next six weeks, you’re probably going to be disappointed.

Ed in Iowa: Giancarlo Stanton is probably priced about right at 10yr/$285. There is not a lot of surplus value there, but the contract is no longer under water either. Do you agree with this assertion?

Dave Cameron: No.

Dave Cameron: The opt-out makes the deal overly risky relative to the reward.

John: Do you think theres any chance Jeets goes full Guggenheim this offseason?  Trade for Miggy/Fulmer, sign Darvish, other flashy moves?  It would be really fun

Dave Cameron: Doubtful. I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to sign guys like Ozuna to a long term deal and were willing to overpay for the right to say “see, we’re different”

The Ghost of Christmas Past: Are you a fan of the “bring the top prospect up and make him a reliever” strategy? I.E. Wainwright, Price, soon to be Buehler?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, given innings limits, it’s a good way to leverage the early years of a good young pitcher on a contender.

Mike: What are the chances that Giancarlo actually gets moved this year? Who is the most likely suitor if you had to pick one?

Dave Cameron: I can’t see any real way that Jeter’s first big move as owner is to trade away the team’s best player. They need to establish a new identity and trading Stanton won’t do that.

Matt: Cubs are playing well , if not still a bit inconsistent. One longer-term issue that has been exposed is the OF. How would you balance the offensive and defensive needs out there with the current personnel? Would you look to reshuffle the OF deck a bit in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: I’d trade Schwarber, but I’d have traded Schwarber the last few years too, and they’ve kept resisting that idea.

Aaron Nola: Will I be the best pitcher on the next good Phillies team?

Dave Cameron: I’m not sure your arm will still be healthy when the Phillies are good again.

Devil Ray Romano: The Rays have fallen to below .500. I was content to blame Cash and the bullpen for the struggles this season, and while there are still problems on the pitching side, the position players (Ramos, Smith, Hechavarria, and a bit of Miller) have emerged as a bigger problem now. After the Beckham trade…should I be directing my disappointment at the front office?

Dave Cameron: I think the Hech/Beckham decision is easy to question, even without hindsight. But they’ve gotten more right than wrong, and I wouldn’t crush them for one weird choice yet.

Gary: I’m really curious – how much has Tim Beckham’s *career* outlook changed in the last two weeks? Have 15 outrageous games moved him from “utility guy” to “2-3 WAR major leaguer?”

Dave Cameron: He was at +2.5 WAR in ~800 PAs before he got to Baltimore. He was already a borderline Major League average player.

Phil: Apparently Adrian Gonzalez is ready to return to the Dodgers, and there isn’t an obvious spot for him. With Pederson struggling, do you think they put Bellinger in LF, Taylor in CF and Gonzalez at 1st? Or maybe with Forsythe struggling, they put Taylor at 2nd and Bellinger in LF? Or do they just have him as a bat off the bench and a late inning replacement when they have large leads?

Dave Cameron: They are 50 games over .500. They don’t really need a set lineup at this point. They can afford to rest everyone, and give lots of guys a few starts per week.

Kev: What contract does Hosmer get this offseason and who gives it to him? Especially considering the returns we saw for position players at the deadline.

Dave Cameron: Feels like one of those guys who hangs out on the market until January, and then Boras goes over the front offices head to convince ownership to give him $150 million. Maybe this is Jeter’s first “big splash”.

Dooduh: Who do you think claimed Estrada?

Dave Cameron: Probably the Mariners

Andrew: What is the likelihood that the Astros use starting pitcher “tandems” in October – e.g., the “starter” for Game 2 would be McCullers & Peacock, each scheduled to throw 3 innings? And McHugh/Morton the next game? Is this their best approach?

Dave Cameron: Very likely.

Lulio Jugo: So am I reading the WAR calculations correctly that if Chris Sale was replaced with a replacement level pitcher, the Red Sox would be expected to be 61-58 instead of 68-51?  That really puts into perspective how valuable a top player can be.

Dave Cameron: Essentially, yes, that’s what WAR attempts to represent.

Steve: How many homers does Hoskins hit in 2018? You a believer?

Dave Cameron: I’d say 30+. Yes, I think he’s going to be really good.

TKDC: What do you think the relative influence of fWAR and brWAR are for the voters that are even inclined to look at advanced metrics? As in, do you think fWAR is more or less influential, or about the same?

Dave Cameron: There’s no question that B-R has more traffic than we do, and almost certainly is the site of record for more beat writers than FG. So I would imagine their WAR gets looked at more than ours does. But I would also imagine that most everyone who gets an award ballot these days takes it seriously enough to do research that includes looking on FG.

Paul: Can we talk 4 man outfield? I feel like it has been dismissed among casual fans because Votto doubled. Can’t help but think that if he lined right to Bryant it would have been perceived very differently. With that in mind, what would it take for more managers to be willing to try it? Is one fleeting sample of success going to be enough to get people interested? I can’t really recall how conventional shifts caught on. Thanks,

Dave Cameron: I’d bet we see it more with guys who are at the extreme FB end of things. No real reason to line up four infielders against someone who elevates 70% of the time.

John: You think the Phillies would be best served trading Nola?  I feel like the White Sox might be in a similar situation with Rodon.

Dave Cameron: I’d probably shop him this winter, yeah. Too much risk that he goes to zero before they get good again.

Lee: I think the most exciting thing about the first few weeks of  Dever’s career is 5 of his 6 home-runs have gone opposite field.   What do you think his peak looks like?  He’s a lot more impressive than I expected.

Dave Cameron: The fact that he has this kind of power while almost never pulling the ball is really quite amazing. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up as a Freddie Freeman type; it might take him some adjustment period to learn to hit for elite HR power (a few of his HRs so far have been Boston specials), but once he elevates more, he could be the best hitter in the game.

A. Reitz: RE: Cubs vs. Cards. Cardinals have a better chance of catching Arizona or Colo whom they are 5 behind. Than the Cubs, who have been mediocre all year, they have 7 remaining games against and are only 1.5 behind? Now thats some logic!!

Dave Cameron: If you’re judging teams solely on their 2017 performance to date, you are doing it wrong.

David Keys: If you had a team where every player is 0 WAR, what is their record?

Dave Cameron: Theoretically, around 48-114. In reality, would vary around that based on context-specific performance, but replacement level is set at 48 wins per 162 games.

Max: What do you think of Amed Rosario so far and going forward? Can he be a similar player to Lindor?

Dave Cameron: The tools are obvious but I’d be concerned about the 65% contact rate. It’s going to be very hard for him to be an elite player with that kind of contact. He doesn’t have the power to make that work.

Dave Cameron: Good news is he’s 21 and has lots of time to improve. But I don’t think he’s anywhere near guys like Devers, who are ready to be very good MLB players right away. He’s a project with upside.

John: whats the difference between OPS+ and wRC+?

Dave Cameron: OPS incorrectly weights OBP and SLG equally, so OPS+ does too. wRC+ corrects for the relative value between those two (OBP is more valuable), and is thus a bit more accurate.

Moonlight Graham: When can we expect Carson and you to podcast again? We miss him!

Dave Cameron: Probably next week.

TKDC: It’s probably a terrible idea, but wouldn’t it be cool to have baseball games during the solar eclipse?

Dave Cameron: The Salem-Keizer Volcanoes are doing just that.

Skuggs: Speaking of Beckham, he’s improved his Depth Charts wRC+ projection by over 20 points since the beginning of the season.  Out of curiosity, is there a way to see who has improved on their preseason projections the most?  Or is this not sortable?  Thanks

Dave Cameron: All our projections are available to download as a CSV from the projections page.

Dave Cameron: You can easily compare pre-season and ROS projections there.

Cheek: What would a package for Nola even look like? Such a valuable asset

Dave Cameron: Probably something like the Sonny Gray package.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: So let’s talk potential Nola trades (this should be the first off season article).  Does he get a top ten prospect back?

Dave Cameron: Nah. Too much injury risk.

Rob: So I doubt Stanton actually gets traded, but just for fun, what’s a realistic return?  A top 25 prospect, despite the massive contract?

Dave Cameron: He just cleared waivers.

Dave Cameron: No one’s taking that deal without salary offset.

Josh: Often, critics of WAR cite the fact that the statistic is based on a theoretical replacement level player and is thus flawed. As unintelligent as this argument is, why was the decision made to look at wins above replacement rather than just a total win share number?  This would eliminate the theoretical replacement player argument.

Dave Cameron: A large part of the value of WAR is being able to model valuations off of it, so you need to have a baseline that matches up with something close to zero marginal cost. if you just do wins above average or something, then you still have to answer what an average player is worth. And that leads you back to replacement level.

Dan: The Cubs have (for the most part) played like a slightly above average team for 20 weeks. Certainly they may play like a very good team over the last 6; but why is that still the prevailing conclusion? At what point does the year’s track record take over when attempting to predict the sss remaining?

Dave Cameron: It doesn’t. There’s no time in a season at which you should ignore what happened in prior years.

Jack: isn’t it kinda silly to believe that the phillies won’t be good for awhile? They got loads of money to spend and some good young talent

Dave Cameron: You can’t buy help in free agency like you used to.

Sloppy Orel Hershiser: Do you think the sudden influx of $50m per team from selling shares of BAMTech will lead to a more free-wheeling off-season of free agent spending?  Or does the majority of that money go right in the pockets of the owners?

Dave Cameron: They’ve known that additional investment from Disney was coming for a while. I think any additional money going to baseball ops from that windfall is probably already priced in.

5 Run Homer: Can you explain why OBP is more valuable than SLG? I feel like a bunch of homers and doubles>a bunch of walks and singles

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

Josh: Do you think Cueto declines the opt out at this point?  Can he opt out any of the next three years before his contract expires, or is this offseason his only chance?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, don’t see him opting out after what he did this year.

Dave Cameron: Bad performance + injury = stock way down.

Pablo: I heard someone mention Yadier Molina as a likely HOFer. You agree?

Dave Cameron: yes

Los: Plus with wins above average. A slightly below average player is negative by playing a lot while a bad player who doesn’t play is 0.

Dave Cameron: Right.

E: “You can’t buy help in free agency like you used to” is this because teams are smarter and extending their own players through their prime? Or because you typically have to overpay in free agency? Both?

Dave Cameron: Great young players aren’t getting to free agency as often as they used to. This might change in the next few years, as the crop of current great players aren’t signing long-term extensions at the rate that prior generations have, but I don’t know who the Phillies should honestly be excited about trying to spend money on this winter. Darvish, I guess?

E: The NBA went through a crazy free agency spending spree last summer with a sudden windfall of money and everyone knew it was coming. Sometimes owners get excited and abandon the plan.

Dave Cameron: TV rights money is different from tech spinoff investment money.

Dave Cameron: Owners basically have to spend a good chunk of their baseball related revenue on baseball players. They don’t have to spend money they get from selling BAMTech on baseball.

Bo: Re: the Cubs and recency bias… When projecting forward, aren’t the last, say, 100 games more indicative of future performance than the 100 games prior to that?

Dave Cameron: Of course. But you’re better off looking at 200 than 100.

Dave Cameron: Quick time out for a phone call.

Dave Cameron: Or maybe not so quick…

Dave Cameron: Life pro tip: please help your children out by having legal things in place before medical emergencies strike…

Dave Cameron: Otherwise they’ll end up doing a lot of work in a very short time period.

Cheek: So if the Yankees had offered the Gray package for Nola, would PHI have said yes?

Dave Cameron: Probably not, because that deal was particularly risk-heavy and the timelines for the returns are maybe further out than PHI would want. But I could see them accepting a similar overall return with a little less upside and closer proximity to the majors.

5 Run Homer: Are you better off looking at the past 300 games than 200? Where’s the cutoff for when past performance doesn’t outweigh current performance?

Dave Cameron: There’s no such thing as “current performance”. Everything is in the past; you just have to choose how to weight things based on how recently they happened. If you’re getting to 0 weight on anything pre-2017, your projections are going to suck.

Dad: Did I miss an update on your dad? How is he?

Dave Cameron: He’s going home today, but he’s got a ways to go still. Try not to have strokes, everyone. They aren’t fun.

Mark: Seen some conflicting definitions on the site/glossary; wRC+ no longer includes baserunning, right?

Dave Cameron: Correct.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Re: Nola and other pitchers, at what point do you gamble that a front line pitcher (which Nola is IMO) will be healthy rather than trading while they’re at peak value?

Dave Cameron: When you’re at a point where you can realistically contend in the next couple of years. The Phillies aren’t there.

Jeff in T.O.: Better hitter for the next 5 years, Betts or Devers?

Dave Cameron: Bat only? I’ll take Devers.

hayden: The A’s finally have some outfielders, and it’d be great to move Davis’ noodle arm to DH. Does that mean Ryon Healy doesn’t have a place, except maybe as a RH platoon for Olson?

Dave Cameron: Well he’s not very good so that doesn’t seem to be a problem.

bleepbloop: Which bottom dwelling team is the best bet to make a major turnaround like the Astros have over the last few years?

Dave Cameron: The Phillies are the most likely of the current rebuilders to come out of this really strong. But that’s probably 2020.

Dave Cameron: Maybe 2019 if they hit on a bunch of smart trades in the next year.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Sorry to harp on this Nola issue trade thing, but I think it’s a great example.  Sure the Phils won’t be good for another 2-3 years.  But finding pitchers like Nola isn’t easy. What are the math odds that you’d find a replica of Nola when you are good? And wouldn’t it be better to gamble he’s healthy for three to four years than to gamble you can find his replacement in that same time frame?

Dave Cameron: By the time the Phillies are good, Nola will have a year or maybe two left before free agency. What you want to do is line up your assets so that they can stay together for a sustained period of time.

Dave Cameron: And again, my concern would be more about injury with him. Just too high of a chance that he goes Brandon Webb and goes from your ace to nothing.

Dave Cameron: Rebuilding teams shouldn’t be retaining high-risk present value assets, in most cases.

Dave Cameron: Alright, thanks for hanging out, everyone. Will do it again next week.