Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/31/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. I just flew back from SF yesterday, after a fun Pitch Talks event on Monday night. Seriously, these shows are great, and you really should make a point of going if one comes anywhere near you.

Dave Cameron: Watching Jonah Keri get made crushed by Jon Miller was a lifetime highlight.

Dave Cameron: But with a month left in the season, we’ve got plenty of stuff to talk about, so let’s spend the next hour talking baseball.

wilson: Shelby Miller is back up today, do you think theres a shred of hope for him going forward?

Dave Cameron: Sure, there’s no reason to think that a guy who was a quality pitcher for several years is now just utterly useless. It seems like his season just snowballed on him, with his mechanics getting out of whack, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Miller turned out to be a useful pitcher again. Remember, Roy Halladay had one of the worst seasons in baseball history, got sent back to A-ball to redo his mechanics, and came back as a Hall of Famer starter.

Guest: Hendricks peripherals are pretty much identical to last year? Has he actually gotten better?

Dave Cameron: I haven’t looked at the most updated leaderboard, but I believe as of a few weeks ago, he was allowing the lowest average exit velocity on contact of any pitcher in baseball. So, yeah, if he’s figured out how to limit hard contact while also maintaining his previous control of the strike zone, that’s improvement.

Jacob: Based on John Farrell’s comments this morning (which Alex Speier was tweeting, for reference), it sounds like the Red Sox are leaning towards calling Moncada up to play 3B. What would you expect from him down the stretch? Would they have to add him to the 40 today for him to be playoff-eligible?

Dave Cameron: The high strikeout rate in Double-A suggests he might not be ready to hit big league pitching yet, but the athleticism could make him a very useful part-time player. And no, he doesn’t have to be on the 40 man today; anyone in the organization is eligible to be added to the playoff roster as long as the team has a player on the 60 day DL, which the Red Sox do.

Amarillo Windmill: Dave! The Rangers won another one run game! This time via an Odor two run, walk off HR! How do these boys keep doing this? I love this team! #NeverEverQuit

Dave Cameron: Improbable, beat-the-odds stories are a lot of fun. Enjoy it.

Joe: How much raw power would Tebow have to have to make it worth trying to develop him given his hit tool? Seems like he’d need to have 70 power to think that a 29 year old with something like 35 hit could provide any value

Dave Cameron: The odds of Tebow actually having a major league career seem incredibly slim, but I don’t get why so many people are upset about him taking a shot, or teams considering whether it’s worth giving him a look in a developmental league. It’s his life, and he’s not hurting anyone by trying this. Teams aren’t actually wasting any legitimate assets by having local area scouts watch his workout. If he goes to instructional league and looks hopeless, that will be the end of that, and no one will have been harmed.

lunch: freddie freeman is on pace for a 5+ WAR season, which is hard to notice with all the replacement level players around him. is the braves rebuild gonna take so long that he’ll be post peak by the time the next good braves team happens?

Dave Cameron: The Braves certainly hope not, but I think an optimistic forecast for them is 70-75 wins next year. They’re going to need a lot of stuff to go right to be contenders by 2018, even.

Is Tebow a Elite OF?: In theory, can guys not remember to aim 2-3 inches lower when swinging at Britton?

Dave Cameron: Not really. They have spent years perfecting their swing; they can’t really just create a new one for one specific pitcher.

Domingo: Why is the player with the highest wOBA not always the player with the highest wRC+? How are they weighted differently?

Dave Cameron: wRC+ is park adjusted.

Sonny: From a pure entertainment standpoint what is your ideal WS matchup?

Dave Cameron: Cubs-Blue Jays, probably.

Bill: Does Quintana have any realistic shot of winning the Cy Young with a strong finish? Or will his middling record doom him in a crowded field?

Dave Cameron: I have no idea how the AL Cy Young vote is going to shake out, but I do think Quintana would have to be lapping the field to win, given that he doesn’t have the “ace” reputation and name recognition of other guys.

Mike G.: Given what the Rangers have accomplished with their W/L record vs. their unimpressive run differential, am I foolish for starting to think that all of the one-run victories are a trend — a unquantifiable skill that this team actually possesses, anchored by strong veteran leadership, coaching, and a great clubhouse environment?

Dave Cameron: You are free to believe that if you’d like. But if you believe that performing at the highest level in one run games is evidence of a skill, that belief would require you to come up with an explanation for how the Orioles acquired the same skill back in 2012 when they went 29-9 in 1 run games, and then, with mostly the same roster and same coaches, went 20-31 in 1 run games in 2013.

Dave Cameron: The best way to measure whether something is an inherent skill is to see how predictive it is of future performance, and history shows pretty clearly that winning one run games is not predictive of continuing to win one run games.

Erik: Even without injury, is it likely that Clayton Kershaw has already put up his most impressive numbers, simply because his numbers are such outliers that they almost have to regress to the mean a bit? Or was he on a trend that could have kept going if not for an injury (and one he may resume soon)?

Dave Cameron: There is an upper bound on dominance, and he was almost at it. At some point, you can only get so many hitters out.

Roth: I know you don’t have a precise answer, but what salary range would that position posted for the Nationals today (Baseball Research & Development Analyst) be around?

Dave Cameron: Given the new overtime laws that are going to into effect later this year, I’d bet it will be around $50K, just enough to keep the employee exempt from the new regulations.

Mr. Pink: Trea Turner is a pretty exciting player.

Dave Cameron: He’s so fast.

Luke: I was discussing this with my friend and was curious to see if you had a rough idea to the answer. Say you moved someone like Starling Marte with plus defensive skills from LF to CF, which being a premium defensive position that requires more range, could theoretically boost his WAR. Say that happened, how much of an uptick in WAR would you speculate it has?

Dave Cameron: The positional adjustments are supposed to take care of this, so assuming a player is not being deployed at a wildly suboptimal position (say, Hanley Ramirez in left field…), his value shouldn’t change dramatically when changing positions.

Johnny 5: I understand what Gary Sanchez is doing now is unsustainable. Having said that, the fact he is capable of playing like this for a month changes his future projection somewhat, right?

Dave Cameron: Of course. It’s the same thing as Trevor Story at the beginning of the year; this kind of power, even in short bursts, means that he’s better than we thought he was before he went bananas.

The Boat: It seems like everyone is down on Brian McCann’s trade value. I get he’s a little pricey, but a strong defensive catcher with a solid-average bat – those don’t grow on trees. Isn’t he worth a bit more than salary relief in a trade?

Dave Cameron: Not really, no; aging catchers are scary. If the Yankees pick up a little bit of the remaining contract, they might get a fringe prospect, but he’s a slightly negative value asset at this point.

tmz: Can you please elaborate on the Jonah Keri lifetime highlight?

Dave Cameron: Jonah recorded a live version of his podcast with Jon Miller and Bobby Evans, so you can hear the whole exchange once he puts out the episode, but the short version is that Jonah asked Bobby a question about team chemistry and how important it is, then noted to Jon that after Bobby answered it, he’d rephrase it to better suit Jon. Miller then mocked him mercilessly for making it sound like he wasn’t smart enough to answer the question as posed to Evans. It was amazing.

Brock Holt!: Rick Porcello is the best SP on the Red Sox staff: true/false

Dave Cameron: False; that’s David Price, by a good margin.

Reginald Denton III: Who starts game 1 in the playoffs for the Cubs? Does Hendricks have any shot whatsoever?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess it will be Lester or Arrieta, depending on the opponent.

King Joffrey: Heard recently (from reliable MLB writer) about xFIP: “Doesn’t work. It’s an experimental (x) stat that has not panned out in reality. It doesn’t predict what it was supposed to predict. Don’t use it.” Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: That’s a silly opinion.

Blurp: Is the Kyle Hendricks Cy Young chatter just from delusional Cubs fans or does he have legit shot?

Dave Cameron: I’m an NL Cy Young voter again this year, and I’m absolutely giving him consideration.

David: As a follow-up to your answer to Jacob’s Moncada question: a handful of scouting types have actually said that Moncada’s high-K rate is a result of him trusting his eye so much that he takes a lot of borderline strikes for strike 3; so many of his K’s are looking, and better umpires in the majors might mitigate that some. Is this a theory you could give credence to?

Dave Cameron: Nope. That sounds like a classic example of post-hoc explanation to fit data into a preconceived belief. It’s the “Jesus Montero is just bored and that’s why he’s not hitting in Triple-A” type of report.

Steve H: Should I be worried about Jake Arrieta as the Cubs head to the post-season? His command has been pretty questionable of late.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d be a bit concerned.

Dave Cameron: With the Cubs having a massive lead, I’d probably consider skipping a start or two in order to give him a little bit of a break before October.

Jose: Is there a good reason to not bring up Ozzie Albies in September if the plan is for him to be the starting 2nd baseman in 2017?

Dave Cameron: He’s not on the 40 man.

I’m no scout, but…: This Tebow thing is interesting because it shows a WIDE range of scouting opinions. According to Taylor Blake Ward of Scout, two scouts had Tebow’s raw power at 65 and 80… Then you’ve got other scouts laughing at Tebow and reportedly saying he looks like “an actor trying to portray a baseball player.” What’s up with these scouts, Dave?

Dave Cameron: Scouting is hard.

Jose: Jays over Red Sox? I’d take the Betts as a young star and Ortiz as the retiring slugger for the WS narrative over whatever you get with the Jays

Dave Cameron: Bautista/Encarnacion may also be playing their last games in Toronto, and the Jays atmosphere is tough to beat.

Erik: If things like strong veteran leadership or a great clubhouse environment have a real effect, how would they show up in the stats? Some slight overperformance relative to BaseRuns indistinguishable from random variation but which actually represents something real in some cases?

Dave Cameron: There’s no real reason to think leadership would lead to better clutch performance. I’d think it would be more akin to something like what we see in STL, where guys come up and consistently develop into better players than expected.

DeWayne Buice rookie card: Who do you like best out of these three 22-year-olds: Addison Russel, Dansby Swanson or Alex Bregman. Why?

Dave Cameron: Bregman. Best hitter of the bunch.

Patrick: Do you pick up Matt Moore’s $7M option for next year?

Dave Cameron: Of course. I think Moore is overrated, but $7 million is nothing in MLB anymore.

99: Any chance that MLB made the ball more homer-friendly as a reaction to the Royals’ non-power-focused success? Maybe they got worried about the game shifting focus towards defense and situational relief pitching?

Dave Cameron: Well, the big spike in homers occurred around the All-Star break last year, so if they did it in response to the Royals winning the World Series, they had a crystal ball and knew that would happen before it did.

Dave Cameron: (I don’t think MLB intentionally juiced the ball. I’m open to the idea that the ball was unintentionally changed.)

Chicago Mark: Regarding Tebow. If he makes a minor league team, would he be taking someones spot? There is some downside if someone else is cut for him to be paced on the roster. Correct?

Dave Cameron: Sure, but to actually get assigned to a team, he’d have to play well enough in instructional league to get invited to spring training, and then he’d have to do well enough in ST to show that he was worth a spot on an affiliated roster. And if he does those things, then he earned his way there. He’s not taking anyone’s spot by just showing up in instructional league this fall.

Phil: Not asking you specifically… but if Kershaw is able to pitch another ~25 or 30 innings (top range of hopefulness at this point) and he is similarly dominating… how tough does it make it for the other NL CY voters? He would only be at 150 IP and have missed over 2 months, but he was pretty close to as dominating as any SP in history this year, and will have accumulated as much value as any other SP.

Dave Cameron: I think voters put a high level of importance on quantity of starts/innings, so I don’t think he’s going to get serious consideration from a lot of the guys with ballots. That’s just a hunch, though; I’ll definitely consider him.

Aaron (UK): As per the interesting guest post, do you think an MLB team would play Shohei Otani as a genuine two-way?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know, but we’ve seen Bumgarner — who isn’t anywhere close to as good a hitter as Otani, if you believe the projections — get used as a pinch-hitter, so I think they’d be open to DHing him. I don’t think anyone would want a Jose Fernandez level ace playing the field regularly, though.

Brian: Am I wrong to think that “veteran leadership/presence” basically boils down to convincing guys not to go out drinking/chasing women until 4 am when they have a day game after a night game?

Dave Cameron: It’s more than that, but that’s part of it.

Ben: With the weak free agent class this summer, are slightly above average guys like Brandon Moss coming off strong years going to get unusually big contracts? Or is the weak FA class a sign teams have already reallocated resources to keeping the players they have?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think teams will substitute into the trade market instead of just overpaying mediocre players.

Dave Cameron: Well, overpaying more than normal, anyway.

Rob: I realize it would only be a guess at this point, but what do you think the White Sox will do this winter? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: Hahn’s comments the other day that “we’ll know their offseason plan once they make the first move” or something like that suggests to me that they’re going to blow it up. I don’t think you make that kind of comment if you’re expecting to buy, given that you can’t really predict whether FAs will want to sign with you, and the team doesn’t have assets to make big time acquisitions in trade. So the only real path they have control over is a rebuild.

Sonny: Is their an organization off the top of your head you think would be more willing to experiment with Otani as a 150 IP, 250 AB player?

Dave Cameron: Probably a lot of them. But the reality is we don’t actually know if that’s the best use of his skills. How would it affect his pitching if he didn’t get four true rest days in between? We have no idea, really.

Brian Hofman: Jose Bautista: toast? Running a 102 wrc+ since May 1st.

Dave Cameron: No reason to think he’s toast, but he’s 35, and the idea that he was going to remain an elite slugger forever was always silly.

Mike Trout: Do you still think Harper will eventually be better than me?

Dave Cameron: Well he had a +10 WAR season last year, so, yeah, I think peak-Harper can still be an all-time great.

BPBerkeley: I really enjoyed your Pitch Talks session on Monday in San Francisco. I wish they’d given your group more time, preferably by eliminating the first session which had nothing to do with actual baseball.

Dave Cameron: Thank you. I’ll pass along the feedback.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to do some work. Thanks for hanging out today, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Next week is my last chat from North Carolina.

Dave Cameron: So come back and we’ll talk barbecue and humidity for an hour.

Dave Cameron: Eno will be here tomorrow. See you next week.