Delmon Young, Power, Discipline, and Age
In sports, age is a tricky thing. Consider Delmon Young‘s 2010 season. After three seasons of mediocrity at the plate and butchery in the field, Young finally put together a productive season for Minnesota. He slugged 21 HRs and posted a career high in OBP, SLG, wOBA, and WAR. And, because he was only 24, the belief was there was nowhere to go but up – or, at the least, to a respectable career similar to Carlos Lee’s.
Yet here we are, watching a 25-year-old Young struggle through one of the worst seasons imaginable for a top-prospect stud left-fielder entering what should be the prime of his career. Through two months and change, Young has only managed two home runs. Much like the rest of his Twins’ team, his batting line is in shambles. To date, his .246 batting average is a career low, as is his .272 on-base percentage, his .316 slugging percentage and his .264 wOBA.
Were Young 28 or 29 years old, none of this would surprise. Pundits across the internet would have declared him as regression candidate number one after posting a career-high isolated power score by 50 points despite moving to Target Field, one of the toughest home run parks in the league. Nothing else was different. The poor plate discipline was still there. The good contact numbers were still there. The high BABIP was still there. The only difference between Delmon Young prior to 2009 and Delmon Young in 2010 was more pop.
Such a gain certainly sounds significant. We must remember, though, how fickle power numbers can be. Perhaps one of the oddest findings in sabermetrics, at least to me, is how long it takes for power numbers to stick. Maybe it shouldn’t surprise, though – how often have we watched games and said to ourselves, “Oh, that’s a home run if we’re at home,” or watched as a ball floated out of the park only thanks to the jet stream.
Regardless, it was clear something else needed to change for Young to truly improve as a hitter. Even with his added power, he was nothing special for a questionably-gloved left fielder, producing a scant 1.8 WAR.
Delmon Young had walked 102 times in 2484 plate appearances entering this season. Now, he’s walked 109 times in 2644 plate appearances. For many players his age, they’ve spent two, maybe three years developing their skills against Major League opponents. Young is in his sixth season as a Major Leaguer and his fifth as a full-time starter. Old habits die hard, and Young hasn’t been in a situation to learn over the past five years. Instead, especially since his trade to the Twins, he’s been a starter on a contender, hardly in a position to overhaul his game.
So even though Young clearly isn’t this bad – his BABIP is 40 points below his career average and his ISO is 70 points below where it was even two years ago – the idea that Young turned a corner in 2010 may have been misguided. He’s still the same player he always was, and 2011 is just a showcase of when his fickle power leaves him.
Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.
So, more of a Jeff Francoeur than a Carlos Lee type player?
I wish he were as good as Francoeur.
” regression candidate”. Huh? Individuals need not regress, populations regress, and EVERYONE except those already at the population mean are expected to regress.
Uh, no.
what the what
So, first individuals don’t need to regress. Then you say everyone is expected to regress (except you said “everyone are expected). I’m with JPM on this one.
As a Twins fan I would love if Delmon achieved Francoeur’s career. Frenchy already has a 3 years of higher WAR that Delmon’s career total. A total that would be negative if not for last year.
Ouch, you know a player is bad when fans are hoping he’ll turn into another player who put up a cumulative 0.1 over the course of three full seasons from ’08 to ’10. Young’s situation reminds me a lot of Francoeur’s, actually. I remember watching Francoeur in ’07 and thinking he’d taken that inevitable step toward superstardom that all highly regarded prospects are supposed to take, and that he’d fully realize that superstardom the next season, when he would add his power from previous seasons to his new batting average. Of course, we all know how the Francoeur story has played out to this point – it’s looking like ’07 wasn’t a progression at all, but a BABIP-fueled career year. It sucks when talented players don’t put it together.
I’m stilling waiting for Billy Ashley to put it all together…
Jeeze, Ashley is 40. I feel old.
Um, Young had turf toe in early March, limiting his Spring Training. Then he got the flu to begin the season, then hurt his ribs badly enough to go on the DL from late April to mid May. Of course he’s struggled this year!
Don’t forget the time he missed because it was too cold out!
Thinking about this made me realize a reason that speed and BB% rate are so important for prospects. If a player with speed and patience gets a nagging injury they still have the ability to a) field their position and b) draw walks and get on base.
But if a slower player without patience like Delmon Young gets hurt, say with turf toe or sore ribs, the resulting drop in range and BABIP will hurt his value significantly. Meaning if you’re going to have Young or someone like him on your team, you’d best have the resources to replace him if he gets nicked up.
Im a twins fan and Delmon Young is hard to watch. He is an absolute butcher in left field has attitude problems about accepting coaches advice and fussing about being used as a DH when it is clearly his ideal position. At the plate he also hard to watch he swings at almost every first pitch unless its right down the middle its the only time he takes it, he swings wildly at a perceived contact zone the size of Vlad Guerreo with out actually being able to make contact with most everything out of the strike zone. He is changing his mechanics some currently, finally after fighting coaches, and starting to hit better my hope is that he gains enough trade value to someone to get shipped out so Ben Revere can take over left and the success they have been having playing “piranha ball” can continue.
At this point, Dmitri Young looks like the better of the two, careerwise. Hard to believe with all the early reports that this was the better brother.
alright, I ll trade you Delwyn Young for Delmon Young…simple as that…nobody would even know the difference..phils need a Rhanded bat anyways