Despite Late Thrills, Dodgers Drop NLCS Game 2

In the top of the ninth of this second game of the NLCS, Mark Melancon caught his second home run in two days. It was a rare feat for a closer, made all the rarer by the fact that both homers were hit by the same player, Ozzie Albies, and that both had come in the top of the ninth. But the unlikely catches were not entirely symmetrical. The home run in Game 1, a two-run shot, had put the Braves ahead 5-1, capping off a late rally that broke a tense 1-1 tie; the ball carried, as if placed by an unseen hand, directly into Melancon’s glove. He seemed more shocked than anything — with the game still fairly close, he was more concerned with preparing to close out the bottom of the ninth.

The home run in Game 2, though, was the cherry on top of a long day of scoring. It took a comfortable lead and made it that much more comfortable. When Albies made contact on a sinker from Adam Kolarek, Melancon saw his chance; he jogged over, made the catch, and broke into a celebratory trot around the bullpen.

He probably wasn’t anticipating that home run being the deciding run of the game. Why would he? It gave Atlanta an 8-3 lead heading into the final half-inning of Game 2. They had led for hours, striking first as they have through all seven of their postseason games so far. The first blow was off Tony Gonsolin, who started in place of the injured Clayton Kershaw. Gonsolin had been perfect through his first three innings, but began the first with a walk to Ronald Acuña Jr. In the blink of an eye, that small lapse turned into a two-run deficit as Freddie Freeman crushed a two-run shot in the stands in right.

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From there, it was an onslaught. First up in relief was Pedro Báez, who took over for Gonsolin in the fifth after a Cristian Pache double made the score 3-0. Inheriting two baserunners, Báez allowed a single to Freeman — another run on the board — before walking back-to-back hitters, making it 5-0. He got ahead of Albies 0-2, threw three balls in a row, and left a changeup out over the plate; Albies launched it into dead center. It took another great catch from Cody Bellinger to save several more runs from scoring, but even the catch allowed another run to cross. It was now 6-0, and there were still runners at the corners with two out.

Out of the bullpen came Dylan Floro, who finally ended the top of the fifth with a strikeout of Dansby Swanson. But it would not go so smoothly for Floro in the top of the sixth, as a Nick Markakis double knocked him out of the game. In came Jake McGee, who finished the inning without further incident. The same cannot be said of Alex Wood in the top of the seventh, who gave up a walk, a single, and a Swanson double to make it a 7-0 laugher.

It takes two to tango, though, and the other half of this dance was the Dodgers’ scuffling offense. After only scrounging up one run on four hits in Game 1, the Dodgers managed just two hits in their first six innings. They managed to work five walks off rookie sensation Ian Anderson, even loading the bases in the bottom of the third, and ran his pitch count up enough to chase him after four innings. But, like the Reds and Marlins before them, they failed to score. And they continued to fail against Tyler Matzek, who pitched around a walk in the fifth and a single in the sixth.

The bottom of the seventh, though, was when the cracks began to show — when a game that had been overwhelmingly one-sided started to shift. Darren O’Day started the inning but promptly gave up singles to Joc Pederson and Chris Taylor. After a critical strikeout of Mookie Betts, he ceded the mound to A.J. Minter, who fell behind Corey Seager 2-1. He threw a cutter over the plate, and Seager pounced on it, putting the Dodgers on the board and cutting the lead to 7-3.

Still, after a quiet eighth and the Albies home run in the top of the ninth, it was hard to envision the Dodgers mounting any kind of serious threat, even with Josh Tomlin on the mound and the top of the order coming up. Their bats had been so quiet for so long. The bottom of the ninth began with a Taylor strikeout — an uncomfortable one, sending him down to one knee. Two outs to go, and a five-run lead: easy. Then Betts singled. Then, two pitches later, Seager smoked a ball into the right-field corner, where, unable to recover from its injuries, it died on the dirt in front of some surprised-but-enthused Dodger fans. By the time Acuña was able to field it, Betts was well around third, heading home. Two outs to go, a four-run lead, and a runner on second: a little less easy.

It got easier for Tomlin thanks to another strikeout, this time of Justin Turner. Now he only needed one out. To the plate stepped Max Muncy. Tomlin’s first pitch, a cutter, missed inside; his second, a curveball, bounced in the dirt. His third pitch was in the zone, middle-in and 87 mph — right where Muncy wanted it.

One out, but a lead that was down to two. Brian Snitker was forced to call on Melancon, who had so recently been safe in the bullpen, celebrating his second Albies home run catch and a win that seemed to be in the bag. Melancon quickly got ahead of Will Smith 0-2, and on his third straight curve, got Smith to ground it into the infield, right to Albies. Albies bobbled it. Smith ran through first, completely safe. Now the tying run was at the plate in the form of Cody Bellinger.

Bellinger, too, took a strike on a curve. But he was all over Melancon’s next pitch, roping it into right. Smith scored easily; Bellinger ended up at third. The tying run, all of a sudden, was 90 feet from home, the one out remaining no longer seeming such a small obstacle between the Braves and victory.

But AJ Pollock grounded out to third, leaving Bellinger stranded. The outcome that had seemed all but certain since the fifth inning was confirmed. The path, though, had not been as smooth as it appeared.

The Braves now hold a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. Their Fried-Anderson one-two punch, so dominant in the Wild Card and Division Series, held up against baseball’s most productive lineup; their offense managed to rough up the National League’s best bullpen. And until the seventh inning of Game 2, their own bullpen held up, continuing its dominance from earlier this postseason. They have proven themselves to be a formidable force, not merely beneficiaries of the weakness of previous opponents.

Now they enter the danger zone. In their previous best-of-three and best-of-five series, they swept through easily on the strength of Fried’s and Anderson’s performances, not having to rely on their starting pitching depth to win multiple games. This, though, is a best-of-seven. They have won two games, the two games they needed to win, but they must still win two more — there will be no days off, no reprieve. And the Dodgers, though they have appeared so beatable on both sides of the ball through so much of this series, have shown a little of what they’re capable of. I think we’re going to be in for a fun ride.





RJ is the dilettante-in-residence at FanGraphs. Previous work can be found at Baseball Prospectus, VICE Sports, and The Hardball Times.

43 Comments
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Jewish PacheMember since 2020
5 years ago

After watching every single pitch of this game, I thoroughly enjoyed reading this. Excellent recap

CheeseballMember since 2016
5 years ago

Loved this recap. Interesting to see how the thin end of the Braves’ staff holds up. Lord willing, we’ll see Panda toss an inning or two of relief before the series is over.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  Cheeseball

Yes–the Braves, for better or worse, really needed to take at least one (and more likely both) of these first two games. They needed their top two starters to pitch well enough to keep them out of trouble because the next couple of games are likely going to be scarier. I mean, we can all see a path for Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson to succeed against the Dodgers, or for the Braves to put up a lot of runs, but when Fried or Anderson are on the mound you’re looking at 50/50 games and when Wright or Wilson are they are…not 50/50.

hughduffy
5 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Even with the 42.5%/57.5% odds for Wright and the 41.8%/58.2% odds for Wilson that the ZiPS Postseason Game-By-Game Odds gives, those are still good odds for two rookie pitchers and the Braves. The only game that the Braves have been favored to win by ZiPS has been Max Fried’s start, at a whopping 50.4%/49.6%.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  hughduffy

I think those are a little optimistic for the Braves, but only by a very small amount. The good news is that even if the odds actually are lower (say, 40% for Wright and 35% for Wilson) the chances you win one of them are actually pretty good!

pepper69funMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

61% for one Atlanta won per your percentages.

v2miccaMember since 2016
5 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Honestly, even if the Braves manage to take game 3, I would still consider this series seriously in doubt. Both Bullpens are getting worn out right now, but Atlanta’s starting depth starts to go off of a cliff soon.
If the Braves do manage to take game 3, I would almost be tempted to say just roll with the punches in games 4 and 5, let your high leverage guys get some rest, then go all in on game 6 with Fried on the mound.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  v2micca

This is spoken like a fan who has been burned one too many times. If the Braves take Game 3, the chances they completely luck into winning one more game is high (especially when they get their good starters back, whenever that is).

pepper69funMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  v2micca

If Atlanta is up 3-0, then you are materially in error to state the series is in serious doubt. Essentially, you just said the odds of Dodgers winning four straight games are nearly 50%. Just for fun and to illustrate……pretend game four is Wilson and his odds to win are 30%. Game five would be a bullpen game that is 15% for Atlanta to win. Games 6 and 7 will be Fried and Anderson. That’s no worse than 50% and 45%, respectively. Cumulative chance of one Atlanta win is…..84%. That’s not over, but that is not serious doubt. Fried and Anderson win percentages are low in my opinion. Push that to 55% and 50% and Atlanta’s win percentage for one game rises to 87%.

v2miccaMember since 2016
5 years ago

That bottom of the 9th nearly caused every Braves fan to have an aneurysm.

Southi
5 years ago
Reply to  v2micca

Ozzie’s error concerned me far more than Tomlin’s ineffectiveness. It was almost like I expected Tomlin to fail in a garbage time like scenario. But the error made me think oh no, maybe the Dodgers are going to pull this game out.

TKDCMember since 2016
5 years ago
Reply to  Southi

Without the error, Snitker’s strategy would not be questioned now. Of course, his strategy still worked, so the questioning is muted. The Braves were up 5 runs and that is very low leverage even accounting for the Dodgers’ talent. Maybe you could argue that Tomlin pitched to one too many hitters, but he had recorded two outs and you were still in a scenario where two more players had to reach before the tying run came to the plate. In the end, Snitker put his closer in with 2 outs in the ninth leading by 2 with the bases empty. While Melancon made it as hard as possible by letting a run score and get the tying run on third, that was a low likelihood and finally the odds actually turned the way that was favored and the Braves got out of it. Snitker did not get what he wanted which was a day off for his closer, but he also didn’t lose anything that really mattered, which only could have been the game.

Cubslol
5 years ago

Dodgers choking like they’re Cubs

FrodoBeck
5 years ago
Reply to  Cubslol

*like they’re Dodgers.

Fixed it for you.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
5 years ago
Reply to  FrodoBeck

One of the better rejoinders I have seen in a while. Laughing out loud.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
5 years ago

I’m not a Braves or Dodgers fan but I decided I’d rather finish watching the NL game than switch over to another when where I’d fall asleep before the end. The viewers who turned it off thinking the game was over after the 6th/7th/8th inning missed a really wild finish. Talk about thrills–the tying run is on third with two outs!

RonnieDobbs
5 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

You lucky bastard. Everyone should be so lucky to catch the best part of a game. I did the opposite – watched up to that point and then had to leave only to see that a bunch of stuff happened after I left.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
5 years ago

Before the series started I asked why guys like Tomlin, Ynoa, Dayton and Webb were on the roster. There is no need for more than 11 pitchers for a 7 game series. Snitker is never going to go to these guys in a high leverage situation and I warned all Braves fans to be scared when they saw Josh Tomlin standing on the mound.

Anon21Member since 2018
5 years ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

I think it’s the whole “don’t have 4th or 5th starters” thing. They are anticipating some mop-up work in Games 4 and 5. It’s not like…an airtight victory strategy, but they were never able to get anyone to provide even adequate performance at the back end of their rotation (and they did try a lot of options), so it’s what they’re stuck with.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
5 years ago
Reply to  Anon21

All that is needed is one stiff to be used in any mop-up situation. If the Braves are behind by 6 in the 6th let some non-essential body throw 3 or 4 innings. The roster spots are too valuable, Camargo, Inciarte and a third catcher might actually be of some help.

Anon21Member since 2018
5 years ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

Third catcher, maybe. Inciarte is extremely washed; his exit velocity shows he’s hitting the ball about as hard as a 10-year-old, and they’ve already gone to their best defensive alignment with Duvall out by starting Pache in CF.

Camargo can’t hit at all, but does at least provide some defensive flexibility.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
5 years ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

I guess Snitker needed all of these mop-up men but I only anticipated being down 6 in the 6th, not 11 after 1/2 inning. However, there is no restriction on using position players as pitchers? this post-season so the question is still why have so many mop-up men. Tomlin, 3 runs in 2/3 and Dayton, so many runs I lost count. I reiterate, why are these guys on the post-season roster?

dukewinslowMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  Anon21

Kyle Wright could turn into a pumpkin at any moment as well. It’s not that weird that they were cautious

sadtromboneMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  dukewinslow

This comment aged pretty well.

jamesdakrnMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  dukewinslow

So what’s the verdict on the Apocolocyntosis of Kyle Wright?

sadtromboneMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

Who would you replace them with? Given how few days off there were, and how weak their bench position players are, I think it’s reasonable to fill up with relievers and hope for the best for the ones that scare you.

Among the various options, you’re picking between…
-Webb (who doesn’t have much of a track record either way)
-Tomlin (better as reliever)
-Ynoa (better as reliever, although certainly not “good”)
-Dayton (not good peripherals)
-Luke Jackson (who doesn’t seem to strike people out anymore)
-Touki (hahaha no)
-Sean Newcomb (who is like one part Luke Jackson and one part Robbie Erlin)
-Chad Sobotka (who? wasn’t he a character on the Wire?)

And replacing them with position players seems even less useful. For one, you don’t go through them as fast. Second, the “good” reserves that are currently on the roster are Charlie Culberson, Johan Camargo, Pablo Sandoval, and Pache, and those guys are not good. You could probably add Inciarte, and maaaaybe Alex Jackson if you’re worried about catching depth and want more bad players to sit on the bench but I think the only other hitter on the 40-man is Hechevarria, who you do not want to play.

So yeah, these guys might be scary, but I think the real story here is that the Braves have miserable depth in everything except the bullpen, and putting that depth on the roster is less bad than other options.

RonnieDobbs
5 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Teams should avoid using their worst players more than they do.

Subway Alum
5 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Is d’Arnaud wearing down? Flowers spelled him fairly often during the regular season and got a crucial hit now and then. But putting Flowers in the lineup in these games throws off the dynamic of the batting order enough that a worn out d’Arnaud still hitting cleanup still might be the better option. If Snitker uses Flowers, I’d imagine he might slide Riley, for his power potential, into the cleanup spot, bat Flowers eighth or ninth, and try to keep everything else as close to the usual as possible. He did that a few times during the season, and Riley is getting enough playoff experience to be “dangerous enough” as a cleanup hitter for a game now and then.

TKDCMember since 2016
5 years ago
Reply to  Subway Alum

Wearing down? That doesn’t seem plausible. Since the season ended he has played 2, 3, and 2 games in a row with multiple off days between those stretches. This could be a concern late in this series, but it makes zero sense to bring it up now.

hughduffy
5 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Luke Jackson, the Friendly Neighborhood Slider-Man, lost velocity and spin from 2019. His slider lost about 126 rpm’s of spin and 2.5 inches of average downward vertical movement on his slider. End result: he missed fewer bats and the NLCS roster.

For the NLCS, the only players available are those on the 40-man roster now. Of those sadtrombone didn’t cover, that leaves:
Tucker Davidson (not ready yet for MLB)
Jasseel De La Cruz (AA was his highest level)
Patrick Weigel (AAA reliever)
William Contreras (possible 4th catcher).

No good bench options. Few good pitching options. The current NLCS roster is as good as the Braves can muster right now.

dukewinslowMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

It’d be one thing if games were independent events, but I get throwing cheap arms out in low leverage situations and saving your good ones if you can. Keep the powder dry.

hughduffy
5 years ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

The Braves have 15 pitchers on their postseason roster because their starting rotation has been like a box of chocolates. Most of the season, all they have had has been Fried and Anderson. Wright made adjustments in September that allow the Braves to pencil him in there as well. Wilson also appears to have figured some things out, so they’ll give him a shot, I believe. After that? Maybe they’ll open with Huascar Ynoa, and hope he can get through the order at least once before throwing it to the rest of the bullpen.

Josh Tomlin and Jacob Webb throw strikes, don’t walk batters, and can go multiple innings. Dayton strikes out hitters (27.4% K%), and gets out lefties (.398 OPS vs LHB), but is prone to home runs from right handed batters (.786 OPS vs. RHB), so the Braves won’t bring him in for a string of righties. Dayton can also go multiple innings. But with 7 games possible in 7 days, the Braves will have to spread some of the workload around.

dukewinslowMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  hughduffy

The process worked last night! Trust it.

Subway Alum
5 years ago
Reply to  dukewinslow

Maybe Matzak deserves a two or three-inning start if they have to go to a bullpen game. Or is he too useful used as he was in Game Two?

hughduffy
5 years ago
Reply to  Subway Alum

I think Matzek is too useful to start a bullpen game. He can give you high leverage outs, because he’s got the best strikeout percentage in the bullpen. He’s also the best bridge from a flagging starter to their higher leverage relievers (Melancon, Martin, and Smith).

Antonio BananasMember since 2026
5 years ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

Let’s just think about the math of this. Plan for 7 games.

That’s 63 innings minimum. We can reasonably expect what? 11 out of each Anderson and Fried. Melancon/Smith/Matzek/Greene/o’day/minter to each get 4 (every other day average).

So that’s 24 from the pen, 22 from your reliable starters.
46 innings from guys you mostly trust.

17 innings left. You need at least one bullpen game and Wright could get knocked out after 2 innings. And even best case maybe he goes 5.

With those 12-15 additional innings, do play matchups with Dayton, Tomlin, Ynoa, and Webb? Where do you potentially overexpose the effective relievers?

I agree with Snit stocking up on pitching volume. It’s not like they have a bench of guys who are even good platoon players. Atlanta basically has a lot of versatile defensive replacements on their bench and Panda.

dukewinslowMember since 2020
5 years ago

Camargoson might get lucky at the plate and won’t kill you in the field. Do I wish one of them were Ben Zobrist? Well yes.

CindyJNCMember since 2021
5 years ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

I wish Webb or Dayton had been used last night instead of Tomlin. Putting in a guy who throws 87 mph against those Dodger bats is asking for trouble. I was shocked Minter gave up that bomb…he has been so good this year.

pepper69funMember since 2020
5 years ago

As a long time, die hard Braves fan, I don’t remotely think this series is over. But it is well started for Atlanta. Easy to voice now what everyone was probably thinking. If Fried and Anderson don’t both win, then Braves are in deep trouble.

RonnieDobbs
5 years ago

I don’t think a 2-0 lead is too commanding here. ATL is about to get weird with arms. Problem for Dodgers fans is that LAD has gotten weird with arms for two straight series… they have really forfeited their biggest advantage. Today is a crucial game for both. ATL can get a commanding lead or LAD can set themselves up to use Kershaw and even the series. I think ATL will win the series, but I would not be shocked if they didn’t. A little drama in one of these series would be good.

v2miccaMember since 2016
5 years ago
Reply to  RonnieDobbs

It would be Huuuuuuuuge for Atlanta if Bryse Wilson could give them 4 solid innings in game 4. I mean, that’s pretty unlikely. But its not Melancon catching two Albies homers in the bullpen unlikely.

hughduffy
5 years ago

Since the Braves announced that Wilson will start Game 4, they will have at least 3 rookie pitchers start games in the NLCS.

Southi
5 years ago
Reply to  hughduffy

I wonder how many times 3 rookie pitchers got a start in a postseason series.