Did Trevor Bauer Discover a Road Map to Another Level?
This past Tuesday night against Oakland — just as there have been at other times this season — Trevor Bauer showed glimpses of the bat-missing strikeout artist he can be, the top-of-the rotation potential he’s possessed since departing UCLA with Tim Lincecum-like Pac-12 numbers and starter-kit stuff.
Bauer set a career high with 14 strikeouts against the A’s on Tuesday, and he has a career-high strikeout percentage (29.2%) and strikeout-walk rate differential (22.1 points) this season — nearly doubling his career rate (12.4-point K-BB%) by that measure.
Having spent some time around him this year, I’ve learned that Bauer believes he’s making improvements, is changing for the better on a skill level — in part evidenced by his strikeout rate. He’s been frustrated by the results (6.00 ERA), but believes they aren’t reflective of a sound process. That idea is supported by a 3.98 FIP.
Besides the strikeouts, what also stood out on Tuesday night was Bauer’s curveball usage. Bauer recorded a career-high single-game total of curveballs (47) and a career-high curveball percentage (40.7%) against the A’s. On the season, he’s throwing the pitch at a career-high rate of 24.6%. The pitch has helped him increase his strikeout rate even while his overall swinging-strike rate has remained flat at 9.0% this season. Bauer has enjoyed 58 called strikes via his curveball this season, compared to 95 all of last year.
Said Bauer, after the game, to reporters regarding curveball:
“I mean, it is my best pitch,” Bauer said. “It always has been. So, when it is working, it is nice. When it is really good, like tonight. I just try to leverage it and use it as much as possible.”
The pitch is also a swing-and-miss weapon. Consider some evidence from Tuesday night, like when he struck out the side with the pitch in the fifth inning:
It can work against lefties, too:
Nearly a third of the time hitters offer at the pitch, it creates a whiff. Consider this feeble swing from Adam Rosales:
And while Bauer has league-average fastball spin rate, he does have enough velocity to change eye levels and work up to play off the curveball. Here’s a 97 mph fastball up for a whiff:
Bauer’s final at-bat, and strikeout, ended with a filthy biting curve:
Bauer was pumped.
After Bauer recorded seven strikeouts with the pitch Tuesday, batters have now posted a .103 isolated slugging mark against the curve this season and an .081 mark for his career — the lowest rates among his pitches. Perhaps he should be leaning on the pitch more often. Of the six different ones he throws, the curveball is the only pitch with a positive linear weight for his career (16.6 runs above average) and has been his most effective pitch this season (1.4).
Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 curveballs this season, Bauer’s ranks second in vertical break, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Perhaps Bauer is an ideal candidate to join the curveball renaissance, which has been led by pitchers like Rich Hill, Lance McCullers and Drew Pomeranz. They’re pitchers who have dramatically increased usage of the pitch and have been better able to prevent runs.
Bauer prides himself on having a versatile pitch mix. He feels it gives him options to adjust and attack hitters in a variety of ways. Perhaps he would be better served by simplifying his mix and becoming more curveball dependent.
There’s a perception that the cerebral and unorthodox Bauer is stubborn. Indians coaches have expressed an interest in Bauer simplifying his approach. Said Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway to The Athletic’s T.J. Zuppe on Bauer’s troubles earlier this season: “I think he needs to simplify the mix again, once again.”
But Bauer is curious. He was interested in pitch tunneling, he’s as data-savvy as any pitcher. He seems like an ideal candidate to experiment with more reliance on spin and reduce his four-seam usage, a pitch he’s throwing at a 55.1% rate this season, above his 52% career average.
On Tuesday, Bauer said the curveball was working, hence the usage rate. Perhaps he felt he had a better feel for it than most games. According to PITCHf/x, however, neither the horizontal nor vertical movement were season bests.
Here’s Bauer’s vertical movement by start:
And the horizontal movement by start:
According to PITCHf/x data, Tuesday was not an outlier for the pitcher’s usage and effectiveness.
The curveball trend became a thing last season. Spin is king. Others arms, like Hill, McCullers and Pomeranz, are using their hooks to reach new levels of performance. And perhaps it is a road map for Bauer to follow to reach his next level of performance, to fulfill his promise.
Perhaps it is the curveball that could give the Indians’ staff another legit top-of-the rotation for the second half of the season, and perhaps another asset for a lengthy run of October baseball. Bauer is still just 26. He could still very well be evolving.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Curveball level achievement unlocked!
I love Bauer and his scientific approach (with Boddy) but I’m not sure he is ever going to be an above average starter. Even if you throw his ERA out of the window a FIP of 4 is not great. I know he he experimented with the called strike thing quite a bit so that likely is no coincidence but I’m not sure if that is a sustainable thing.
Bauer has simply never missed enough bats for the command he has despite good velo and a lot of different pitches. he has worked hard on his command with boddy and it did improve but it still probably isn’t good enough. His increased HR allowed might also be a consquence of trying to throw more strikes without elite command and thus throwing more pitches down the middle.
maybe he would even be better as a reliever, if he could dial it up like 2 mph for an inning his swing and miss might get good enough to be an effective reliever.
His 1.7 HR’s per 9 is the 12th worst of 87 qualified pitchers this season. Bauer is only 1 of 3 starters EVER (min 100 starts) to have a career 8.5 or greater K’s per 9 and 1.1 or greater HR’s per 9. For having the ability to make batters miss, he also gives up a lot of solid contact. Bauer is only 26 so there is still time to figure it out. Cole Hamels had similar stats through age 26 (1.2 HR’s p/9 and 8.5 K’s p/9), but he also had an ERA of 3.53 which is over 1 run lower than Bauer’s.
It’s a shame that his “scientific approach” doesn’t extend to his sad, sad belief that humans don’t contribute to climate change (down votes be damned)
I come to fangraphs to escape politics and bickering of all sorts, please don’t find excuses to rant here.
if it was an actual rant, you would know it.
I agree. I mean if you look ate just the videos above you can tell that his mechanics are far from optimal. That lazy glove arm in particular would be something you would immediately have an 8 year old strive to change and he spins off of his front leg differently on almost every follow through. Very hard to imagine he can make the jump without more consistency.
I really think that his problem is almost exclusively mental, because you can see glimpses of greatness when he simplifies it. I’ve always been a fan of his and still think he can get to at least a quality mid rotation guy.
While watching this game I was noticing he started throwing the curveball extremely often during his stretch of K’s. I think it’ll be very interesting to see his approach and opposing hitters’ approaches the next time out!
If Bauer had any fastball command, he’d already be an above-average starter. That’s a pretty great curveball, though.
Do curveballs have the highest called strike rate? Where does that info live? Thanks!
You are new to Bauer aren’t you? He has been the exact same guy since he was at UCLA. He sounds awfully proud of himself… especially for a guy that was a few bad starts from being moved to the bullpen a few weeks ago. Trevor has it all figured out (as always), this is nothing new. He always has the answers – just check his twitter feed!
Did he discover it with a drone?
Last July 1st, Bauer pitched 5 innings of shutout relief in the Indians 19 inning marathon victory over the Blue Jays, lowering his ERA to 3.02
He made 16 regular season starts after that and put up a 5.51 ERA. He then made 4 playoff starts with a 5.54 ERA. And now he’s made 10 starts this season with an ERA of 6.00.
So in his past 30 starts his ERA is well north of 5.50. I don’t think one start should change how we look at him, when we have 30 games of starts that tell us differently. Give me 5-10 starts like the one the other night, and then we can talk..
He likes to talk about himself to anyone who will listen or better yet sing his praises. Mission accomplished! A little humility would do him well. He is more interested in re-inventing the wheel, than learning the craft of pitching. I wonder how many coaches and catchers have suggested upping the CB usage before he decided on his own that it was a good idea.
What has me interested is that including today’s game, over catcher Roberto Perez’s past two starts Indians pitchers have struck out 36 batters in 18 innings.
Bauer reminds me of Scott Boras. He clearly has a knowledge about advanced stats but only talks about the ones that advance his cause. He talks about his how his BABIP and HR/FB should regress, and he’s probably right that they will somewhat, but ignores the quality of contact especially against his fastball. I think the reasonable expectation for him is occasional shows of brilliance and long stretches of mediocrity, averaging out to to a low-4s ERA over 200 innings given his durability. Which isn’t nothing, but isn’t a top of the rotation arm.