Division Preview: AL Central
We’re halfway done, with the wests — both NL and the AL — and covered NL Central yesterday. Today, we tackle the AL’s version of the country’s heartland.
The Projected Standings
| Team | Wins | Losses | Division | Wild Card | World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | 86 | 76 | 43% | 14% | 7% |
| Tigers | 85 | 77 | 37% | 15% | 5% |
| Royals | 79 | 83 | 10% | 7% | 1% |
| White Sox | 78 | 84 | 8% | 6% | 1% |
| Twins | 74 | 88 | 3% | 3% | 0% |
With no great teams and only one franchise not really trying to contend this year, this is one of the most up-for-grabs divisions in the sport. Our forecasts suggest that there are two tiers within those going for it, but I think things might be a bit more bunched up than the numbers above suggest. Let’s go team by team.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians have become the trendy sleeper pick, a young team expected to build off their 85 win season a year ago. In particular, their rotation is very easy to dream on, as Carlos Carrasco, T.J. House, and Zach McAllister are classic breakout picks after finishing strong in the second half of 2014. Toss in Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar, and this is a rotation with plenty of hype even before you mention the guy who won the Cy Young Award last year. If even two of the back-end starters turn into what looks possible, the Indians will have among one of the league’s best group of starters, and should make a serious run at the division title.
Of course, there’s no riskier gamble in baseball than betting on young arms with short track records of big league success, and while our projections pencil in the Indians for the AL’s best rotation, it’s not too hard to see things going south. And outside of their rotation, the Indians are mostly more good than great. Yan Gomes and Michael Brantley aren’t exactly traditional offensive cornerstone pieces, and Cleveland got Brandon Moss on the cheap because they A’s didn’t want to bet on an aging old-player skills guy with a bad hip. It’s not a bad collection of position players, but it’s a mostly average one, and not the kind of group that you’d expect to win a division title without strong support from the pitching staff.
With a relatively weak bullpen, that means their season probably comes down to how well the young starters live up to expectations. If McAllister’s velocity bump turns into a sustained improvement or Carrasco’s second half run carries over, this could very well be the best team in the division. But despite the old proverb, the road to hell is actually paved with teams who built their rosters around young pitching; this could also go really, really wrong.
Detroit Tigers
Barring a few more J.D. Martinez-style miracles, this is the last hurrah for the Tigers. Their stars are aging and only getting more expensive, and there just isn’t enough help coming up from the farm system to offset the decline that is growing ever closer. But the end isn’t here quite yet. This team is still pretty good, or at least has the chance to be good if they keep enough of their dinged up players on the field for most of the year.
And despite the core of the team getting long in the tooth, Dave Dombrowski did a nice job of making some upside gambles among the role players. If Shane Greene sustains his second half improvements, the team might not miss Rick Porcello as much as it might appear from the projections. Anthony Gose probably won’t hit, but even a slight improvement at the plate makes him a decent enough center fielder given his speed and defense, and he’s young enough to take a step forward. I remain skeptical on both Nick Castellanos and Jose Iglesias, but there is potential with both. These lottery ticket types all have high enough floors to fill regular jobs — maybe with Castellanos as the exception — and offer enough potential to help offset age-related decline among the team’s better players.
But this team still needs Miguel Cabrera to be great, and Justin Verlander to be not-terrible, if they’re going to keep up with Cleveland. There are good pieces elsewhere on the roster, but if Cabrera starts to get old as quickly as Verlander has appeared to, it will get a lot harder for the Tigers to win the division. Cabrera’s unlikely to age out of being a great hitter any time soon, but guys with his body size often can’t stay on the field for 150 games once they reach their 30s, and this team just isn’t deep enough to afford a few months without their franchise hitter. If the old guys can remain reasonably healthy, though, there’s enough around them to make one final run before it’s time to pay the piper.
Kansas City Royals
Projecting a 10 win decline for last year’s AL champs isn’t a popular forecast, especially with so much young talent that appeared to take big steps forward in the postseason last year. But our projections see a team that played like a .500 club in the regular season, then swapped out James Shields for Edinson Volquez, Billy Butler for Kendrys Morales, and Nori Aoki for Alex Rios.
With an inferior cast of veteran role players, the Royals road back to the postseason now leans very heavily on Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, who both probably need to crush their league average forecasts in order for the Royals to make another run at the division title. Alex Gordon is an excellent player, but he can’t be the only star-level performer, especially with a weakened rotation and a bullpen that just can’t possibly be as good as they were a year ago. There are too many scrubs here for the top of the roster to be led by Gordon, Salvador Perez, and Lorenzo Cain.
The good news for the Royals is that Hosmer and Moustakas have flashed the potential to take steps forward, and it wouldn’t be at all unheard of for two former top prospects to finally put things together in their mid-20s. If Moustakas really did figure out how to unlock his power in September, and if Hosmer’s second half was more indicative of his future than his first half, then the Royals could make these projections look silly, especially if Cain holds on to more of his 2014 performance than the numbers expect. But that’s a lot of ifs and maybes, and we could play this same game with almost any team in baseball.
Maybe the Royals will prove us wrong again. They certainly made us look silly last year, and it’s not like pre-season forecasts are infallible. But there are a lot of legitimate question marks on this roster, and it’s pretty unlikely that everything goes right for the Royals two years in a row.
Chicago White Sox
Rick Hahn and his crew have done a great job of building the White Sox talent base, making a series of shrewd moves that have turned Chicago’s other team into a roster with some of the best talent in the game. But this roster is simply incomplete, and the team looks a year away from legitimate front-line contender to me. Jose Abreu, Chris Sale, and Jeff Samardzija is a hell of a start, but Hector Noesi, Avasail Garcia, Micah Johnson, Conor Gillaspie, and Tyler Flowers are not the kind of guys you want to depend on while making a postseason run.
If the Sox can re-sign Samardzija — and by many accounts, keeping him off the free agent market was their goal when they traded for him — and make a few more nifty role player adds over the next 12 months, I might very well take the White Sox as my 2016 favorites for the division, but I just see too many holes for 2015. If Don Cooper can really make Noesi and John Danks productive, and get anything from the team’s relievers not named David Robertson or Zach Duke, he should go directly into the Hall of Fame. The White Sox five or six best pitchers are terrific, but their next six are as bad as any in baseball.
Perhaps Hahn will pull of a few more in-season pickups to address some of the roster’s issues, and the star power at the top will carry the team until reinforcements arrive. But more likely, this is a team that will be good when their top three starters are on the mound and pretty awful on days they aren’t. Patch a few holes and this team is ready to make some noise in October; I just don’t think they have enough duct tape to get there this year.
Minnesota Twins
Rebuilding often isn’t fun, but it does provide opportunities to take risks that winning teams can’t afford; you can give 500 at-bats to a “AAAA player” to see if the scouts got one wrong, or you can take a gamble on a failed top prospect who once projected as an ace and might be able to find that again. That’s how the Twins ended up with Brian Dozier and Phil Hughes, and those two bets have given them quality above-average players at two difficult positions to fill.
Unfortunately, the Twins have spent nearly every other position on the field not making similar bets, so instead of high-upside gambles, Hughes and Dozier are surrounded by aging mediocrities like Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Torii Hunter, and Kurt Suzuki. Sure, they’re going to give Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas a look, but in a year where contending is almost impossible, Minnesota probably should have taken some more fliers on upside plays rather than trying to limit their downside potential.
The resulting combination is a team that will not be good nor likely very interesting, and the Twins are mostly just spinning their wheels until Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are ready. For their sake, those two better live up to the hype and do so fairly soon, because until they arrive, the Twins will likely be mostly irrelevant.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
and it’s pretty unlikely that everything goes right for the Royals two years in a row.
To be fair, I’m not really sure you can say everything went right for the Royals last year. In the playoffs, sure. But the regular season was far from a dream season.
Moustakas was so bad he actually got sent down to AAA. Hosmer was replacement level with Infante not far behind and Butler was godawful. That is a big chunk of what was supposed to be their core players producing pretty much no value.
Which was more than offset by the team winning 89 games with a BaseRuns expected record of 81.
Bad things being offset by good things is hardly “everything going perfectly.”
If I get my arm cut off but win the lottery I wouldn’t exactly call that a perfect day.
That’s why I said “more than offset”. The Royals didn’t lose +8 WAR by Hosmer/Moustakas underachieving.
Again, thats still not the same thing. Bad outcomes being offset (or even exceeded) by other good outcomes happening is not a case of “everything going right” Losing $500 dollars in 10 hands at the black jack table then winning $600 in one hand is not “everything going right”. Its actually alot of things going wrong and one thing going right.
Your wording makes it seem as if the Royals had some dream season where the planets aligned and they had zero setbacks. And the only way they will win this year is if the same highly unlikely thing happens. Which isnt the case at all. The fact is that alot of the Royals had alot of things go wrong for them last year.
I mean, unless you think the Royals plan was to get a combined 0 WAR out of Moustakas, Hosmer, Infante and Butler.
KC just had a record better than one would expect even if everything were to go right.
The positive breaks were larger in magnitude than the negative breaks.
The Royals shouldn’t be the favorite, but I think they are closer to 37% likely to win the Central and the Indians are closer to 10%
“The White Sox five or six best pitchers are terrific, but their next six are as bad as any in baseball.”
Don’t forget they also have arguably the best upper minors pitching prospect in baseball (and pretty inarguably a top three prospect throughout all levels) in the wings at AAA. Rodon should be an above average starter (if he can improve his walk rate) or a valuable bullpen contributor (if he can’t).
And if he can join the rotation and be a bit above average, “Danks and Noesi as the #4 and #5 starters” becomes “the hotter of Danks and Noesi as the #5 starter.” The former is problematic; in the latter, you probably have a better-than-average fifth starter (to go with Sale-Samafsdfasdgh-Quintana-Rodon).
Rodon is the “or six” in that statement. They have essentially five above replacement level pitchers on their Opening Day staff: Sale, Samardzija, Quintana, Robertson, Duke. Everyone else is bad, and no, Danks/Noesi are not above average 5th starters.
My point was that if you let Danks and Noesi pitch for a month or so, and then go with the hot hand once Rodon is called up, there’s a decent chance that whomever that is can give you stretches of at least “not awful” performance. (For example, Noesi was borderline competent in the second half last year, and Danks had a strong handful of starts down the stretch.)
I’d also probably dispute classifying a few other relievers as “bad”. They’re not great (obviously) or even good, but you could do worse than them towards the back of the bullpen. But we’re quibbling at that point.
“The White Sox five or six best pitchers are terrific, but their next six are as bad as any in baseball.”
Meh. Still better than what the Mariners will be trotting out there this season.
Everyone else is bad? Interesting. So Zach Putnam is bad? Weird. I thought a 1.98 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP was pretty good for a reliever. Javy Guerra is also “bad?” As is Jake Petricka apparently; despite his 2.2 WAR as a set-up man most of last year. Petricka has some stuff to work on, but to say a 26 year old reliever who has a sub 3.00 big league ERA is bad is kind of weird. Putnam is 27 and was pretty damn good last year.
The other arms the Sox have: Crain and Nate Jones are huge question marks, but when healthy both have proven they are quite far from bad. Neither are ready for opening day, but who knows as Derrick Rose would say.
Seems to me like you’re saying none of the White Sox young bullpen arms will get any better.
Danks’ career is over; that shoulder never healed and will never heal. Noesi is a dark horse in my opinion; we’ll see how he is his first full season under Cooper.
Enough with the Indians… you are skeptical on other teams youth, but all in on House, Bauer and Salazar. Tell me anyone who thought Kluber (29 this season) even had the potential to have a season like last year, let alone projected a season like that. Now because of a SSS of his latest starts 28 yr old Carrasco is going to be lights out? Even if those two do perform at these unrealistic levels, the young arms are going to excel as well? How come Kluber and Carrasco didn’t excel when they were 23 and 24, but Bauer, Salazar and House will? Way too many “if’s” and “hopes” to project as Central champs. I think the youth, velocity and low costs of these pitchers have hypnotized the masses in to believing this is one of the leagues best staffs. They could be, but they aren’t yet and won’t be able to carry a mediocre offense.
How the hell does a projection system that has been in existence for at least a couple of years get “hypnotized into believing” anything?
I don’t think you need to be “all-in” on House, Bauer and Salazar to project the Indians to win 1 more game than they did last year, and 6 fewer than they won two years ago. The Indians don’t really need growth from any of those guys, they just need the majority of them to not significantly backslide. Look at it this way, Danny Salazar and Yordano Ventura are both similar young, hard-throwing pitchers with durability concerns and no history of sustained big league success. Ventura is the Royals #1 starter. Salazar is Cleveland’s #6 starter. The White Sox have a very good top 3, but the Indians 6 and 7 starters (Salazar and Tomlin) are both likely to be better than the White Sox #4 starter.
No respect! #ALChamps
I don’t understand why Hector Noesi gets labeled as a horrible pitcher. With the White Sox last year, he had a 1.33 WHIP and 4.39 ERA. I do not think it is out of the realm that he produces a 2.0 WAR season with a full year of Don Cooper under his built.
John, I think you mean “belt,” but it’s a disturbing image either way.
This is supposed to be a sabermetrics site but I continue to see the usual predictions based on nothing but empty conjecture and reasoning as scientific as flipping a coin. Why bother?
From 2005-2014 (10 seasons), the White Sox have outperformed their PECOTA estimate by 41 wins. Why? Fangraphs stated some of this was from randomness and the inability to forecast run distribution. The other factor, scarce DL stints for White Sox players.
” With the White Sox, there is definitely a reasonable argument that projection systems underrate their ability to keep their pitchers healthy.”
from http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-sox-and-beating-projections/
So I’ll go ahead and add 2 wins to this projection. I’d gladly take the over of the 78-84 projection if anyone at fangraphs cares to bet.
And as Dave wrote here in 2013, http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-difference-between-predictions-and-projections/,
“Show us more than the single weighted mean outcome when doing win-loss records. Give us the confidence level of each number between 60 and 100 wins.”
Did anyone do this? Does fangraphs publish this somewhere? It’s been over 2 years.
Confidence interval between 60 & 100 wins?!?!?! That’s like saying if I go to bed at midnight and do A confidence interval test, we can say we are (insert C.L. here)% confident that I’ll wake up between 1am and noon. When was the last time any team didn’t win between 60 and 100 games? Especially in this division?
Also, why oh why do people constantly think the Indians will win the division. If you predict them to go to the playoffs every year you are bound to be right eventually. As a die hard twins fan it pains me to say that CHW will win the div. 1-5: CHW, KC, CLE, DET, MIN
Umm… are you being factitious? I am pretty sure you misunderstand. Dave is not asking for single weighted mean outcomes. It is explained in the link.
“making a series of shrewd moves that have turned Chicago’s other team into a roster with some of the best talent in the game.”
Yes, Chicago’s other team… people realize that there are more Sox fans in Chicago’s actual city limits than Cub fans right? Cook county is a White Sox county; the Cubs kill the Cubs in the suburbs, in Iowa and NW Indiana. In the actual city of Chicago, the White Sox are the main team. Not the “other” team. How can you be the other team when the Cubs haven’t won in 110 years?
Also, Tyler Flowers was about as middle of the pack as it got in WAR last year for catchers. Why wouldn’t you want to count on an average MLB player?
Also, Avasail Garcia? Really? You have already decided he’s not a player to rely on based on next to no MLB experience? You’ve already drawn your conclusion on him? Nice… must be cool to see the future like that. Hahn seems pretty excited about Garcia; he was one of his first and main targets. You seem to think you are smarter than one of the games best GM’s and you have already drawn your conclusions on Avisail’s prowess.
Let me add that my homerism comes out when discussing the White Sox and I have immense respect for Hahn. I don’t mean any of my comments personally and appreciate your opinion.
There are chronically bad teams, but has any team that had been consistently decent, lost their way more than the Twins? Billy Smith was a predictable disaster as GM, but Terry Ryan made shrewd moves in that past that seem beyond him now.
As an organization they appear insular to the point of being incestuous. Not a criticism of Paul Molitor, but the team missed a chance to bring in an outside perspective of manager who has spent time in successful organizations.
Well said. But in Minny there’s only one way to do things, our way.
Isn’t this the same writer that wrote an article saying the Royals should trade James Shields prior to the trade deadline last year? I think after that debacle Mr. Cameron should have someone else cover the AL Central.
Defense, speed and not striking out are statistics that are still undervalued by the saber metric community.
A prediction is one projection.
So where does this projection come from? Zips? Steamer? Depth Charts? Your judgement? This is not clear from the post, though the ordering is that implied by Depth Charts. That projection forecasts that my Royals will have a bit better offense and their pitching will fall off a cliff (i.e., be worse than the 2014 Rangers). Both things could happen, but the joint probability seems small.
The White Sox only 4 games better than the Twins? Where can I get some of that action!?
Completely disagree with the White Sox being below .500 and basically sharing the cellar with the Twins. Aside from Jeff Samardzija and Chris Sale, you do also have Jose Quintana, a very underrated pitcher. He’s certainty not an ace, but he has a modest swinging strike percentage, and carried an ERA right around where he was supposed to have last year. There’s your three main starters. Noesi has potential and had just returned to a full year of pitching. He might be better this year. I believe Micah Johnson is also being overlooked here, remember this kid once stole 60 odd bases between A and AA one year and has a little pop too. Defense I hear is solid as well which gives a boost a weak infield defense. Conor Gillespie is another overlooked player. He has no fantasy value but is definitely a decent real life player (not defensively). He provides some clutch hitting when called upon and has a decent OBP. If he falls through, there is Matt Davidson waiting in the minors. The bullpen aside from the obvious names you mentioned also has Putnam (13% SW/STR%, 53% GBR, needs to work on the walk rate) and Petricka (ground ball specialist) who were very good last year and with the possible call-up with Rodon later this year, this bullpen could be nasty. The offense will perform and the staff will be decent. If they dont qualify for the division, fine, but they definitely are making it over .500 this year.
If any one will be below .500 it should be the Tigers. The bullpen is a mess aside from maybe Soria; Joe Nathan is getting too old, Verlander regressed a lot last year and shows no sign of improvement. They lost Scherzer but balanced it a little with the acquisition of Price. Anibal can be good, but he lost a lot of sw/str% with the addition of his split-finger which actually caused him to regress a bit. Bottom line the staff is shaky. The offense is getting old as well and it only takes one year from an aging offense to bring a team down. I feel its this year.
Indians have potential yes and will finish over .500, but the back end of the rotation like the White Sox is a question mark. TJ House shows potential but had a rocky spring. McCallister shows potential much like Quintana but the spring has also been rocky for him. I don’t see them winning the division. I see either the Sox or Royals taking it.