Division Series Live Chat – 10/5/18

1:59
Jay Jaffe: Hello folks, and welcome to a day of baseball madness, with four Division Series games piled high starting with the Indians and Astros at 2 PM. I’m the starter today, not the opener. Hopefully I’ll be able to give you several good innings of delightful commentary.

1:59
Klubot: How much of a factor do you think Kluber’s hard hit % will be today? His rate this year is his career high

2:01
Jay Jaffe: I’m less worried about Kluber’s hard hit rate and more worried by the fact that his 7.7% drop in K rate was the majors’ largest for anybody with 150 innings last year and this one. Number two on that list? Kershaw, with a drop of 5.9%. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/season-stat-grid?position=P&seasonSt…. Both are still excellent pitchers, and perhaps the hard-hit rate for Kluber is  as indicative of a decline as the K rate is, but the rest of his numers say he’s still a vary valuable pitcher.

2:02
TJF1777: Have the Yankees ever played the Red Sox in the playoffs? Didn’t see any articles on it this week

2:02
Jay Jaffe: I can’t tell if you have the sarcasm font on or not, but to answer you in earnest: three times, all in the ALCS: 1999, 2003 and 2004.

2:02
BK: I’m just a sad Braves’ fan looking to watch some more baseball and wallow in my sorrows

2:03
Sean Dolinar: Hi everyone! I’ll be around this chat again. At least in the afternoon.

2:03
Jay Jaffe: That had to be a rough game for Braves fans because there really wasn’t much to take from the game in a positive light other than the pitchers after Folty faring reasonably well in their first postseason exposure.

2:03
jkim: I calculated the slashline of the 8 dodger starters w/o Ryu last night:

0.261/0.352/0.495

Giancarlo Stanton this season:

0.269/0.343/0.509

They were trotting out 8 Giancarlos in their lineup. Again, how did this team win only 92 games??!!!!!!

2:05
Jay Jaffe: Injuries. Recall that Turner missed the first 40 games of the year, and Seager played just 26. The Dodgers were 16-26 through their first 42 games; they had the NL’s best record after that (76 45)

2:06
Paul: Rockies starting Parra, Dahl on bench. WHY?!?

2:06
Brooks: Re : bullpenning, how far along on a continuum do you think we are to seeing a fundamental change in pitcher usage?

2:06
Sean Dolinar: How far along?  What would the far end of the continuum be? All relievers?  Pitching has been evolving a lot. I still think starters will be important through out the season for a while given roster restraints.  I’d be curious to see what rule changes occur to guide the evolving of pitching.  I don’t think the game needs more pitching changes. Especially intra-inning changes.

2:10
McGirkTheJerk: Why no Walker Buehler for NL ROY?

2:10
Jay Jaffe: I think he’s got a spot in the discussion, particularly given that neither Acuña nor Soto played a full season, either, and you can say the same thing about Flaherty. So much of the attention has revolved around the two hitters, particularly with Soto setting a wRC+ record for teenagers (145)

2:11
stever20: what’s amazing about the Dodgers- if they don’t have September callups- they probably don’t even make the playoffs…..  19-9 with them.  They have so much more depth that it makes more of a difference for them over anyone else….

2:12
jkim: Why are Indians favored on the fangraphs playoffs odds page when the Astros were favored yesterday?

2:12
Sean Dolinar: We always don’t have exact reasons why the playoff odds change, but we looked at that and concluded it was the depth chart adjustments for the playoffs that caused the shift.  It is interesting how high the projections are on the Indians; the season-to-date mode shows the opposite.

2:12
Jay Jaffe: except that they used virtually no substitutions in the lineup in their tiebreaker win or in Game 1. When they’re healthy, they’re the most talented team in the NL, and right now they’re pretty healthy (the absence of Seager being the obvious exception)

2:12
Josh: Jay as you know Rockies are facing the Brewers and a RHP in Chacin today

2:12
Jay Jaffe: Whoops, did I biff that one. ouch. Too much baseball in too few days.

2:13
Jay Jaffe: Let’s try that again: “Rockies starting Parra, Dahl on bench. WHY?!?”

Because Dahl isn’t all that good? https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-few-quick-thoughts-about-the-rockies…

2:14
stever20: Buehler didn’t have a full season either though- he made 23 starts- or missing about 1/4 of the season.  Soto played 116 games and Acuna played in 111 games.

2:14
Mister Puppy : Alright fellow neutral observers: who we pulling for? I really like the Astros, but it would be cool for Cleveland to get back to the WS

2:14
Sean Dolinar: Cleveland…A repeat would be boring. Also let’s do a poll!

2:14
Sean Dolinar:

Neutral Observers: Who do you want to win this ALDS?

Astros (28.5% | 59 votes)
 
Indians (71.4% | 148 votes)
 

Total Votes: 207
2:14
Jay Jaffe: That was part of my point, in case it wasn’t clear. But what Soto did was historical. That said, I think Buehler has the capability of beingn part of Cy Young discussions once he ramps up to a full workload.

2:15
Jay Jaffe: wait, no way for neutral observers to root for Switzerland in that poll?

2:15
GERB: Verlander has been historically pretty mediocre against the Indians… Does this matter at all for todays game? Or just a coincidence

2:16
Jay Jaffe: I tend to think it doesn’t matter, particularly as they’re not In Cleveland. It’s not like the ballpark is particularly unfavorable to him, and while I haven’t looked, I’m not sure many of the Indians have long histories against him.

Wait, they are playing the Indians, right? Just checking myself.

2:17
michael16: When Kershaw made the “I don’t have anything to prove” comment, everyone freaked out.  But isn’t he completely right?  Yes, he is not the same Clayton Kershaw in the postseason and doesn’t have a ring, but he has gotten extremely unlucky with relievers giving up his runs. And i also feel that we forget his great games.  Games 1 and 7 v Houston, has shut down the Cubs, won elimination games, etc.

2:17
Walter Benjamin: Is this the best day of the year for watching baseball?

2:17
Sean Dolinar: I think so. Postseason baseball is amazing.

2:18
Jay Jaffe: Re Kershaw: and the save vs. Washington in the 2016 division series. So much focus on the few boxes he hasn’t checked rather than the ones he has, and the extent to which his teammates haven’t always risen to the occasion.

2:19
Jay Jaffe: Agree with Sean, this might be the best day of the year for baseball.

Alas I won’t be able to marinate in all four games today, just the afternoon ones. I am obliged to attend a wake for a college friend tonight, which just flat out sucks.

2:20
Walter Benjamin: When will wrc+ or a similar stat appear on tv screens? When will it push out BA? 3 years for the former, 20 for the latter? Tired of seeing AVG. behind the names in the lineup, especially with teams like the Rockies

2:22
Jay Jaffe: Well, we can hope that the nerdcasts like the one Mike Petriello was involved with for the NL Wild Card game the other day catch on. barring that, maybe we’ll at least get better stats on the second-screen experience.

2:23
Sean Dolinar: OPS might get there sooner, though.

2:23
Randal Grichuk: Is kipnis really their best option in center?

2:24
Sean Dolinar: The scaled stats are not quite as easily understood without really going to an explanation.

2:24
Chris: Hooray being off to watch playoff baseball. Would love more Statcast broadcasts. That was cool.

2:24
Jay Jaffe: Center field was a black hole for the Indians. The acquisition of Leonys Martin looked to solve that, but he got frighteningly sick soon after being acquired.

2:25
NotGraphs Revivalist: How does everyone feel about the start times of the DS games?

2:25
Sean Dolinar: You have to give each it’s own exclusive window. The early games stink for the fans that have them (IMO). But I loved getting home from school and watching those LDS games in middle school / high school.

2:25
Jay Jaffe: whaddaya gonna do? 4 games and MLB wants to maximize audience, so you can’t run them all simultaneously. Somebody’s gotta play in the day, and my god how much complaint do we get about having no World Series day games anymore.

2:27
TJF1777: Given that he’s just flat out not starting anymore- is it a foregone conclusion that Brett Gardner gets bought out for 2018 instead of the option picked up?

2:28
Jay Jaffe: his option isn’t so burdensome ($12.5M) that they couldn’t pick it up and try to engineer a deal (though Gardner has 10/5 rights). Clint Frazier’s concussion issues may still be a concern, but I suspect based upon how little he was used late in the year that the Yankees will respectfully let Gardner walk and find a deal that suits him unencumbered.

2:28
BK: For those of us still at work, someone please keep us updated on the score!

2:29
Jay Jaffe: still 0-0 in the top of the 2nd. No hits yet.

2:29
Nate: The amount of anti-openers that exist out there, we’ve got a lonnnnngggg way to go before sabermetrics are welcomed on broadcasts full-time

2:29
Walter Benjamin: Europe feels great about the start times. Let them start at 8am ET for all I care

2:29
Sean Dolinar: Yeah, people don’t like change. But I’m surprised how quickly stuff has changed in 2018 regarding pitcher usage. Ben and Jeff made a good point on EW about the statcast broadcast…the best part was actually the lack of a baseball grump, everyone was just happy about baseball. Really refreshing.

2:30
Jay Jaffe: I can tell you from the standpoint of being on site for coverage that 8 PM games suck royally. I didn’t get home from the AL Wild Card game until well after 2 AM

2:30
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Is the chat going on all day with staff switching out after the games?

2:30
Sean Dolinar: Probably for the first two games. I’m not sure about the night games.

2:31
E: I live/work in Cleveland, they wouldn’t put the game on the monitors we have throughout the office. So we’re all just watching on our phones.

2:31
Rob: I totally agree with Sean.  For younger fans, games right after school are amazing.

2:31
Nate: No World Series day games = damn the MLB
Playoff day games = damn the MLB.

Some people are better off watching Friends re-runs.

2:31
Sean Dolinar: That what I was watching before the MLB coverage came on!

2:32
Jay Jaffe: I’ve never watched more than 30 seconds of Friends in one sitting

2:34
stever20: so is this a matchup of 2 future HOF pitchers today?  Kluber and Verlander

2:35
Jay Jaffe: A third Cy Young might change things but I think Kluber got too late a start to mount a strong HOF case without remaining unusually durable; he didn’t have his first good season until age 27. Might be worth a closer look in an article. I do think Verlander has turned the corner with his rebound over the last 3 seasons.

2:37
Sean Dolinar: Yeah, that’s not a bad approach. You might still have to abstract ‘total offensive output’ vs. something more concrete.  I think percentiles are also intuitive, but we don’t really have any stats that use them.   

I think WAR is also working its way into acceptance. I’ve seen it on displays at the HoF. It comes up in the MVP discussions every year now. Definitely one of our most popular stats at FG.

2:37
wRC+ Lover: Instead of wRC+, why not just say “batter hit 25% better than league average.” It’s so intuitive!

2:39
DY: I see Astros hit balls decently hard (95mph plus).   how much should we read into exit velocities to as leading indicator for offense?

2:39
Jay Jaffe: I’m sure somebody could give you a better, more technical answer but to me, exit velo by itself isn’t enough. Look at launch angle as well, and either xwOBA or hit probability. For example on those three 95+ for Kluber, two of them had hit probabilities of <15%, and the hardest hit one (Gurriel) was just 31%

2:39
Iggy Pop Has Raw Power: Here is some pedantry for you:  Don’t worry about Kluber’s rate of hard contact — that is an effect.  Worry about the cause (diminished stuff it seems).  Worrying about an indicator itself misses the point — indicators point to other things.  But yes I am worried about Kluber as someone with money on Cleveland.

2:40
Jay Jaffe: well put

2:42
zurzles: Call me old fashioned but straight out replacing traditional stats with abstract league-adjusted formulas is a good step towards making baseball as inaccessible as possible for potential fans. OBP would be a better replacement, but it’s not like straight up BA is useless.

2:42
Sean Dolinar: All stats have some learning curve and take time to work its way into baseball culture.  I don’t think everyone knows how to calculate ERA, but most baseball fans know a good ERA vs a bad ERA. And they know it’s tied to the runs a pitcher gives up.

I’m not sure if OBP would be the best replacement for BA. OPS would have my vote.

2:42
Dylan: It still blows my mind how Stetson University produced Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber within 3 years of each other

2:42
Jay Jaffe: They took a break from making hats to make some ace pitchers.

2:42
Randal Grichuk: I love the Donaldson pickup.. I think he could be in for a nice series

2:42
Sean Dolinar: This is one of the reasons why the projections are high on the Indians.

2:43
E: The best part about the ‘nerdcast’ was no platitudes and clichés that don’t offer any substance.

2:43
Sean Dolinar: Yes! 100% agree.

2:43
Bernie Madoff: Just taking a break from my “investment” job. Score update?

2:43
Sean Dolinar: 0-0

2:46
The Ghost of Babe Ruth: What probability do you assign to a “strong” HOF case? 50%? 75%?

2:48
Jay Jaffe: It really varies. I don’t spend a lot of time trying to throw numerical probabilities so as to keep things simple (there are enough numbers in play already if I’m citing JAWS). But mentally, I think some strong cases are 90% or above, and the only question involves timing and traffic on the ballot. Others, i think have a good case but the voters might take time to come around, maybe it’s a 50% shot.

2:48
Iggy Pop Has Raw Power: An economist probably invented OPS. Who else would simply add together two fractions with different denominators as if that is how math works?

2:48
Sean Dolinar: Possibly. The math in the early sabermetrics is basic.  The data they had wasn’t much and they weren’t the Statistics PhDs.

2:49
Jay Jaffe: If I’m not mistaken it was John Thorn and Pete Palmer who introduced OPS. You can go yell at them, I’ll wait here and be glad they paved the way for bums like me.

2:50
All Cats Are Beautiful : How is it possible the Yankees went into rebuild mode at the 2016 trade deadline and immediately got better?

2:50
Jay Jaffe: Because Brian Cashman has done a great job of remaking the Yankees’ front office over the years while shifting from the Jeter-era team to this one. Go check out the piece that Marc Carig and Eno Sarris did for the Athletic this week.

2:51
OPS Disliker: Does it bother you that OPS is a stat that combines two stats with different denominators? and plain OPS doesn’t adjust for park / league context? I feel like if you’re going to push an “advanced” stat, OPS isn’t the one. I am really not sure why it’s gained mainstream acceptance!

2:51
Sean Dolinar: The two different dominators don’t bother me because it serves its purpose to succinctly summarize a players batting contributions. I wouldn’t use it for research or modeling.

2:53
Chatter (person) Chatter (talk): Does doing a chat take away from the enjoyment of the game for you guys? I love these, but I don’t have to wade through 100’s of Q’s while also trying to watch the game.

2:53
Sean Dolinar: A little. I would otherwise be coding the new prospect board while watching.

2:53
Jay Jaffe: OPS worked as a gateway drug to show people there is more to offense than just batting average. You’re much better off using OPS+ or wRC+ than raw OPS.

2:54
Jay Jaffe: It’s tough sometimes to watch and chat, and at times I have to back off the questions so I can appreciate what’s unfolding, or catch up with what I missed. But I wouldn’t do it if the combination didn’t produce some amount of enjoyment as well alongside the game.

2:54
Tyler: How was the Donaldson trade allowed to go through.  He went on the DL for the same injury right away.  I thought that was not allowed?

2:54
Jay Jaffe: There was certainly some grumbling from a few teams. You’re allowed to trade a player on the DL, but you’re not supposed to be able to put an injured ones on waivers. that’s where the beef with the Donaldson trade is

2:54
Sean Dolinar: I also will explain OPS is analogous to Fahrenheit temperatures. where 70s (.700) is room temp or average….80 (.800) is warm. 90 is hot. And anything over 100 is insane.

2:54
Sean Dolinar: Not that it’s intentionally scaled to that, but it’s happenstance.

2:55
Not Jose Altuve: Doesn’t OPS get you like, 90% of the way there?

2:55
Jay Jaffe: maybe 80-90%. You don’ t have the park or league context without a “plus” stat so for cross-era purposes raw OPS is pretty weak.

2:56
James: Is the demise of the Dodger’s Bullpen a little overstated?  They have a solid lefty in Ferguson, and starters Maeda/Wood, not to mention solid guys like Floro and (gasp) Baez.

2:57
Jay Jaffe: I think there are two things going on: 1) a lot of fretting, not unreasonable, about Jansen’s condition and struggles. he’s not the 4-6 out guy this time around; and 2) the other guys simply haven’t been consistent, and the transitioning of Maeda and Stripling hasn’t yielded the strong results as expected. Yes, Ferguson and Floro are pretty solid, and Baez isn’t as bad as he is simply excruciating to watch given his pace; and 3) there are better bullpens in this postseason, such as the Brewers, Astros and Yankees. the Dodgers’ simply isn’t a strength anymore.

2:58
Jay Jaffe: that’s three things, of course.

2:58
Tyler: OBP + ISO would be better than OPS right?

2:58
Sean Dolinar: The problem is the weighting for different run values. I’m not sure if OBP + ISO would be better.  wOBA accounts for that. Then you have the park and league factors which is what adjusted and scale stats do.

3:00
stever20: saw your thing Sean and thought you were talking about OPS+.   was like 70 is average???

3:00
Sean Dolinar: No…70s degrees F is about room temp…and .700s in OPS is about average. It’s a rough rough point of reference for those who haven’t seen OPS before. I haven’t mentioned OPS+ today.

3:00
zurzles: I don’t want to get into a huge broadcast/stats debate (well I do but I’m at work) but the most important thing is always going to be that a broadcaster knows how to communicate what the stat means in a way that’s accessible. Nearly every time I see a broadcast with shoehorned sabermetrics the broadcaster just recites them with a befuddled tone before changing the subject as quickly as possible.

3:03
Jay Jaffe: I don’t think a broadcaster has to rely on advanced stats — Vin Scully being a perfect example. Mostly I just want announcers who are enthusiastic about the game in front of them rather than complaining about kids doing donuts on his lawn. Certain broadcasters are driving people away from watching baseball because they can’t help but spit on the product in front of them .

3:03
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: How much does Ichiro’s death grip hanging on the last few years hurt his HOF vote?

3:04
Jay Jaffe: not a bit, given the 3000 hits, 10 All-Star appearances and other honors, not to mention that he was generally beloved throughout the game.

3:04
jkim: Ryu: What kind of contract will he get in the offseason?

3:05
Jay Jaffe: something along the lines of Rich Hill’s 3/$48M, adjusted for the current market, maybe?

3:06
Jay Jaffe: succint game summary

Kluber vs. Verlander living up to the billing so far. Indians and Astros are a combined 0-for-17 through three innings.
5 Oct 2018
3:07
Lance Biggerstaff : The Yankees didn’t “rebuild”. They traded away a couple of relievers and their ridiculous level of resources would make it laughable for them to ever truly rebuild. Most teams in the league would be sunk by the Ellsbury contract – for them, it’s nothing.

3:09
Jay Jaffe: Rebuild vs. reload, sure, it’s a semantic distinction. They still  made great trades and international signings, built a mother of a farm system. Helped by money, sure. Ask any exec in the league what they think of the job the Yankees have done and you won’t find one who isn’t impressed.

3:11
Tom: HOFers in this game – over/under 3.5. What do you take?

3:11
Jay Jaffe: That looks about right. Verlander and then 2-3 from among Lindor, Correa, Ramirez and Bregman.

3:12
Strelok: Why does everyone say Snell deserves Cy Young when Verlander has been better in eveything except ERA

3:15
Jay Jaffe: Dunno about “everybody” but guys who lead the league in both wins and ERA have historically tended to win the award. It’s not like Snell didn’t do other good things, either. 3rd in AL in K%, for example, with a lower hit rate than Verlander — not everybody is going to give 100% of the credit for that to the two defenses, for example. Snell’s a reasonable pick, JV’s a reasonable pick, Sale’s a reasonable pick and would probably be mine, even with the low innings total

3:15
Floyd: I like the school grade scale for OPS:

3:15
Floyd: .900-1.000 is an A, .800-.900 is a B, .700-.800 is a C, and so on

3:16
Jay Jaffe: and there’s the first run of the game on a Bregman solo homer Klubot malfunction

3:16
Sean Dolinar: And Mike Trout gets bonus points!

3:16
stever20: wouldn’t the counter point to Jansen be that him not being 4-6 out guy mean he won’t be as overexposed as he was last year?  He faced 35 batters in 6 games.  Which may wind up being a really good thing for the Dodgers….  6 innings this year maybe being more effective than his 8.2 last year.

3:17
Jay Jaffe: the problem is that the Dodgers may not have guys as reliable in front of Jansen as 2017 model Brandon Morrow and Kenta Maeda. The latter hasn’t been nearly so dominant in that role this year. Bottom line is that they need the starters to go deeper to avoid exposing the bullpen, and as we know, there’s risk there too,

3:18
Best Coast: honestly, i don’t have a problem just seeing your standard triple slash on broadcasts.  those 3 numbers at least give me decent idea of what the hitter is and I can mentally adjust if it’s a rockie (?) or padre or something

3:18
Jay Jaffe: I much prefer the avg/obp/slg line to OPS. wRC+ or OPS+ is a great shorthand in conversation when you don’t want to be bogged down by citing three slash lines or w/e

3:19
Angelus Novus: I’m watchin you Walter Benjamin

3:20
Jay Jaffe: I want to chat with Walter Benjamin about The Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical Reproduction

3:22
Blob Saget : Which would help Klubot’s HOF chances more: two more amazing seasons, then fizzle out… or five more good-but-not-quite-great years?

3:24
Jay Jaffe: the latter as he’s got just ~1,300 innings under his belt and probably doesn’t get anywhere close to consideration without doubling that total. Very few modern SP in the HOF with fewer than 3,000 innings. Historically, the jump is from Koufax to Pedro, with Halladay likely next

3:26
Garrett: Do we know why Houston continues to bat Gurriel, who isn’t that good, in the middle of their lineup?

3:26
Jay Jaffe: I guess because you never know when you’re going to need to throw a racist gesture into the middle of a rally.

3:27
zurzles: future hall of famer jose altuve would like a word

3:28
Jay Jaffe: Gah, did I not include him in the count above?  (checks: no) I certainly meant to. 2-3 from among Bregman, Correa, Altuve, Ramirez, Lindor

3:28
Chris: No Scherzer HoF Jay?

3:29
Jay Jaffe: He has to stay healthy, but I think he may have turned the corner this year. When I was on MLB Now a week ago, I noted that no pitcher had boosted his JAWS more this year than Max did (7.4 points ).

3:30
stever20: question that I’ve always wondered about FIP.  Why do IW count towards FIP?  It’s not something that the pitcher can really control at all….

3:30
Jay Jaffe: The formula I usually see excludes IBB but includes HBP: (13 * HR + 3 (BB-IBB + HBP) -2 * SO)/IP + constant.

3:32
John Berger: You think *you* want to chat with Walter Benjamin about The Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical Reproduction….

3:32
Jay Jaffe: Well played, sir. Let’s talk about Ways of Seeing, too.

3:34
Jay Jaffe: 2-0 Houston now. Bregman homer, Gurriel walk, singles by White and Reddick.

3:34
Slew: I disagree on 5 good vs 2 great for Kluber. He’s no way getting in on any sort of counting stat argument, it has to be the he was the best pitcher in the league during his peak narrative.

3:35
Dan Szymborski: No matter what Sean says, I like room temperature to be around 65.

3:36
Jay Jaffe: and again, the only guys who have gotten away with that in the past 40+ years are Koufax and Pedro, and with all due respoect Kluber’s best so far isn’t as good (8 WAR seasons, not 10 WAR seasons). So he’s gonna need bulk.

3:37
Strelok: With Seager returning, does Muncy get a regular spot in the Dodgers’ lineup next year?

3:38
Jay Jaffe: Barring unforseen trade(s) I’m sure he’ll be in the picture. Bellinger’s ability to play in the outfield is a big part of the Dodgers’ flexibility and the reason they’ve been able to find Muncy playing time once Turner return(er)ed

3:38
Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think Seager’s return hurts Muncy really.

3:38
Guest: Hey Sean, is there anyway to create the X-axis vs Y-axis that Jeff uses a lot on Fangraphs? (For example the Launch Angle 1st Half/ 2nd Half graphs here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lift-off-for-christian-yelich/)

3:38
Jay Jaffe: Hey Dan! Didn’t see you come in

3:38
Dan Szymborski: Just peeking in here and there to sow discord.

3:39
Dan Szymborski: Chat’s probably exhausted of me after 12 hours of nonsense during the WC chats.

3:39
jkim: As an Asian American, every time Gurriel smiles I get angry. Every time Houston fans cheer for him I get angry.

3:39
Jay Jaffe: I’m not Asian and Gurriel’s actions still anger me. There’s no place for that bullshit in baseball.

3:40
E: I bet your cats hate a 65 degree house, Dan

3:40
Dan Szymborski: I hate finding cold hairball splats outside a bathroom when I’m going to the bathroom in the middle of the night.

3:40
Dan Szymborski: They’re wearing literal fur coats.

3:40
Rockie Dangerfield: If the Brewers end up bullpenning again today on account of Chacin being on short rest (and most of the Rockies’ lineup being familiar with him), how vulnerable will they be in Denver for game 3?

3:41
Ray: What are the odds we see all of those guys make the HOF? Altuve and Lindor are already off to phenomenal starts, and Bregman and Ramirez look well positioned to put up a run of monster years. And Correa might be the single biggest talent out of all of them

3:41
Jay Jaffe: All of ’em? Steep. With the exception of Verlander I don’t think any of them are at 50% yet, because they aren’t close to the minimum of 10 years, and with infielders, a lot can go wrong, injury-wise. Taking each besides JV at exactly 50%, among 5 guys, that’s a 1 in 32 chance

3:41
McNuggets: This has nothing to do with the playoffs and I know we’ve talked about Degrom so much but I just saw on B-ref that Aaron Nola has nearly a full win more in terms of pitching WAR than Degrom. What in the actual f*ck is that about??

3:41
Dan Szymborski: It’s the defensive adjustments

3:42
dude: How much do Scherzer’s three Cy Youngs bump his chances? What value is placed on individual awards?

3:43
Dan Szymborski: I can’t remember the last time I talked to another voter who cared much about that. Jay?

3:43
Jay Jaffe: There’s no 3x winner besides Clemens outside the Hall, so that certainly helps. Max gets a 138 on Bill James’ HOF Monitor, which captures awards, black ink and postseason — 100 is a good chance, 130 a very good chance. Still needs the bulk stats but I think the peak numbers are among the best for this era

3:43
Dan Szymborski: Oh wait, I’m sorry dude, I misread the thrust of the question.

3:44
Dan Szymborski: I thought we were talking this year’s Cy voting, not Hall.

3:45
Jay Jaffe: Historically, voters do care about awards, yes, though if you look at the Monitor nuts and bolts you can see that some matter more than others (ROY, not much for example). That’s one reason why it’s important to get them right

3:45
E: Anyone know how much these guys get paid during the playoffs?

3:45
Dan Szymborski: On Nola, DRS has the Phillies at -136 runs defensively, so Nola gets a big boost.

3:45
Dan Szymborski: I would personally regress one-year defensive numbers in WAR, but I have lost that debate.

3:45
Jay Jaffe: if I’m not mistaken, the entirety of the salary is drawn during the regular season. Every postseason team gets a cut of the postseason dollars, depending upon how far they get.

3:46
Dan Szymborski: I believe you are correct.

3:48
Walter Benjamin: I think we all would benefit from a chat about anything with WB — even wrc+ in tv broadcasts. Sadly, I am merely an impostor.

3:48
Jay Jaffe: i wasn’t going to say anything but your aura is somewhat lacking, now that you mention it

3:50
Jay Jaffe: George Springer: Sprung. 3-0

3:52
Jay Jaffe: Altuve: Boom as well. 4-0. Klubot batteries wearing down quickly.

3:53
Guest: How did the salary obligations work for game 163s?

3:53
Guest: Also how does service time work for game 163?

3:53
Dan Szymborski: You don’t get a bonus for 163 (nor is your check smaller if 162 isn’t played because of rainout)

3:54
Dan Szymborski: You get service time for every day of regular season you’re on 25-man roster, but the max is already 172

3:55
Jay Jaffe: you mean there’s not a guy at the end of the dugout peeling off Franklins for the extra game? “Here, nice job Yelich, go buy your girlfriend something nice.”

3:56
stever20: Do you think Manny Machado pressed a bit with the Dodgers?  His offensive numbers way down compared to being with the Orioles.  155 wRC+ to 121 with the Dodgers.  OPS+ 164 to 122.  Do you think if they make the World Series(especially if vs Red Sox or Yankees)- that familiarity would really help him out a lot?

3:56
Dan Szymborski: Can put it this way easily: if you got a discount for only playing 161 games, there’s no way the Marlins wouldn’t try to claw back the salary

3:57
Dan Szymborski: I think you can ready too much into slices of a season. Machado just hit worse with the Dodgers and the O’s, no need to read too much into it without really compelling reason of some type.

3:57
Jay Jaffe: while I do think it can take time to acclimate to a new team and new expectations, I’d be wary of that assumption. FWIW, Machado’s 121 wRC+ with the Dodgers was right around his career mark (120). It’s his 140 with the Orioles that was the surprise.

3:57
Bebop: i don’t watch much Rockies b-ball, always liked Charlie Blackmon due to his amazing beard & hair, but is he really that horrendously awful a CFer? he has a 0.8 WAR this year despite some really solid offensive numbers, but baseball reference has him at a -2.7 dWAR? does he need to be moved to right field post haste?

3:57
Dan Szymborski: He takes a huge hit on DRS. I tend to think the magnitude is a bit high there.

3:58
Dan Szymborski: the WAR that ZiPS uses smooths defense and generally takes a middle position on FIP vs. defense related ERAs

3:58
stever20: what about partial year guys that split between AAA and MLB?  Do they get an extra day of service?

3:58
Dan Szymborski: As far as I know, they get the day of service if they’re on the roster.

3:58
Woad Raider: NL playoff bullpen ranks: 1. Brewers 2. Rockies 3. Dodgers, 4. Braves?

3:58
Dan Szymborski: It’s relatively rare enough that I doubt it’s ever made a difference for any player’s eligibility

3:58
Jay Jaffe: I might swap Dodgers and Rockies there, but the gulf from 1 to the field is large.

3:59
Dan Szymborski: I’d flip 2 and 3 also.

4:00
Rockie Dangerfield: Charlie Blackmon’s never going to win a GG or anything, but yes, he has been that bad this year.  I think everybody’s working hypothesis is that he’s been playing on a wonky quad all season (he hasn’t looked himself on the basepaths either).  Ideally we’ll see him moved to a corner for Dahl or Tapia next spring, but I don’t see Bud Black forcing that issue.

4:00
Jay Jaffe: I don’t see the Rockies getting anything right with regards to their outfield.

4:00
Jay Jaffe: Ever.

4:01
Dan Szymborski: Blackmon’s age starts with a 3, so no way Black’s going to do anything Blackmon doesn’t want.

4:01
Dan’s Cat: What about a guy who plays 164 games because he was traded mid-season and his 2nd team had more games left on the schedule?

4:01
Dan Szymborski: He gets the service time, though these may be Sheryl questions.

4:01
Jay Jaffe: a day in the majors is a day in the majors as far as service time goes. More games doesn’t change anything.

4:01
Anonymous: ‘Adam Cimber’: Baseball human or Mortal Kombat character?

4:01
Dan Szymborski: Cimber, his eyes open

4:02
Blob Saget : Sorry for jinxing it in advance, but what would a postseason NH do for JV’s HOF chances? Cement it?

4:02
Jay Jaffe: like it did for Don Larsen?

4:02
Dan Szymborski: Garrett Mock and Pete Ladd, at Tanagra

4:03
GOMS: Does Bud Black often go by Buddy Black or was that just A-Rod being A-Rod. It was grating my ears to hear it, but maybe I’m misinformed.

4:03
Jay Jaffe: I know people want to pinpoint the moment when a guy reaches HOFworthiness but it’s really not that simple. Bulk stats matter more than you think, although they shouldn’t. A Cy Young-caliber season or a World Series ring do more to get JV to Cooperstown than a single game

4:03
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how he feels about it, but I’ve seen media people call him Buddy

4:03
Dan Szymborski: Baseball has a strong gravity towards name-y nicknames.

4:03
Howdy : I believe Anon was asking if Cimber was a baseball player or MK character

4:04
Dan Szymborski: Neither. Cimber was an Optimate.

4:04
Strelok: isn’t JV a lock? 250 wins, easily going to clear 3000Ks, a CY/MVP season, a ring, how much more hardware could you get

4:04
Anonymous: The star trek reference is more than suitable as an answer

4:04
bawitdaba: How would you react if everyone started calling you “Danny Szym”?

4:04
Dan Szymborski: It’d be weird, but if it’s in an affectionate tone, who cares?

4:05
Rockie Dangerfield: Cimber was a Killer Instinct character, duh!

4:05
Jay Jaffe: JV just passed 200 wins. not 250. He’s 2 years away from 3,000 K. Those milestones will probably cement his case but it’s not an automatic he gets there cleanly.

4:05
Dan Szymborski: That was Cinder.

4:05
zurzles: this is a question for danny: are the pipes the pipes calling?

4:05
Dan Szymborski: Mom used to sing that to me when I was an infant, apparently.

4:07
Off the Handle: Jay – In your considered opinion, if Josh Gibson or Satchel Paige or Oscar Charleston had played full careers in MLB, would they be no-doubt HOFers?  Or is it just too hard to say?

4:08
Jay Jaffe: If what the observers and the translated stats (see https://homemlb.wordpress.com/tag/oscar-charleston/, for example) say is true, then yes. The tragedy is that we’ll never know.

4:14
Guest: What would you say are Cano’s chances of HOF with his PED suspension?

4:14
Jay Jaffe: Until we see anybody else with a positive test and suspension get elected, I’d say 0%. He’s not going to be the first.

4:16
Jeff Sullivan: What is happening in this chat

4:16
Jay Jaffe: I’d put greater(but not actually good) odds on Manny Ramirez, whom many voters will tell you is the best right-handed hitter they’ve ever seen, or A-Rod, whose career numbers are just too big to ignore.

4:16
Jay Jaffe: Hey Jeff!

4:16
Jeff Sullivan: Hello Jay!

4:17
Rockie Dangerfield: Are Negro League players figured into replacement level for MLB WAR calculations in pre-integration seasons?

4:17
Jay Jaffe: no

4:18
jkim: Verlander at 91 pitches to the 6th. Is this part of the Indians strategy?

4:18
stever20: amazing with Kluber….  1st 6 postseason starts:
30.1 IP, 22 H, 3 ER, 35 K, 1 HR, 0.89 ERA

Last 4 postseason starts (counting today):
15 IP, 22 H, 17 ER, 9 HR, 10.20 ERA!

4:18
Jeff Sullivan: The Astros’ bullpen is very good

4:18
Jeff Sullivan: So good they didn’t even roster Joe Smith, Brad Peacock, Hector Rondon, or Chris Devenski

4:18
Jay Jaffe: The contrast is certainly stark. These aren’t the 2016 Indians, for reasons that go beyond just Kluber though.

4:19
E: Jeff – if you had to climb a mountain with 1 active player in this game, who would it be?

4:19
Jeff Sullivan: Trevor Williams?

4:19
Jay Jaffe: Bartolo?

4:19
Jay Jaffe: Willams Astudillo!

4:19
Jeff Sullivan: Ever end up behind a slow group on the sidewalk?

4:19
Lance Biggerstaff : Wait wait wait… Devenski isn’t on the roster?

4:19
Jeff Sullivan: And Peacock had one of baseball’s very highest strikeout rates!

4:20
Jay Jaffe: I live in NYC. It happens every damn day, Jeff. And as a Fast Walker, it drives me bonkers

4:20
Jeff Sullivan: Long live the Fast Walkers!

4:20
YayBaseball: Hey y’all, any reminders of our mortality for us chatters today? Tough news day for a lot of people.

4:20
Jay Jaffe: I’m going to a wake for a college friend tonight. That’s about as much reminding of mortality as I need.

4:21
Idiot fan: If a player fails an offseason PED test could they retire to avoid it coming out or would it anyway and if so is their any whispers of this having happened?

4:21
Jeff Sullivan: I’m guessing it would eventually leak

4:21
Jeff Sullivan: Everything leaks

4:21
Jeff Sullivan: Chris Correa would leak it

4:22
Nick: Should the DS be 7 games?

4:22
Walter Benjamin: Any Fangraphs writers on PEDs?

4:23
Meg Rowley: I’m trying to decide when I can open a beer and not get fired.

4:23
Jay Jaffe: re division series length: Maybe. But I think you need to shorten the regular season for that to happen. I’m not opposed to it.

4:23
Jeff Sullivan: Carson has alcohol with breakfast

4:23
Meg Rowley: Well he’s effectively European

4:23
Jay Jaffe: Re PEDs: Dan is stacking Deca, and I’m taking Winstrol

4:24
HappyFunBall: Hey guys, look! There’s actual baseball happening now!

4:25
Meg Rowley: Right now Mindy Kaling is telling me to go to dinner with friends

4:25
Dan Szymborski: I need to lose mass, not gain it.

4:25
Anonymous: Baseball in the olympics. How do we make it happen?

4:26
Jay Jaffe: by using minor leaguers. And also by jailing everybody on the IOC.

4:27
Hold me close, ohtani dancer: Verlander’s punchout of Kipnis was nuts. That low fastball just below the knees is absolutely unhittable but also almost too close to take

4:27
CamdenWarehouse: Why do you think they make oatmeal stouts?

4:28
Meg Rowley: The only thing about him being very, very good again that bums me out is that the odds Félix takes his path are effectively zero now.

4:28
Jay Jaffe: because they’re delicious, even if they don’t actually have much oat in them.

4:28
Meg Rowley: Not a stout person myself, which is not meant as an insult toward those who do. Drink what you like.

4:30
CamdenWarehouse: if not oatmeal stout, then what is your breakfast beer of choice?

4:30
Meg Rowley: A mimosa with grapefruit juice.

4:31
Jeff Sullivan: Ryan Pressly with the Astros this year: 23.1 innings, 3 walks, 32 strikeouts

4:31
Jeff Sullivan: Has three pitches and basically started using them all in a 1:1:1 ratio

4:31
Jeff Sullivan: 42% chase rate, 53% in-zone swing rate

4:31
Jeff Sullivan: Great, great find and trade. Why pay retail?

4:32
Hold me close, ohtani dancer: No matter how good the astros ‘pen is, as a Yankee fan who’s seen them exposed time and again, I’m just not nearly as scared of them as their starters

4:32
Jeff Sullivan: Well they also have the best starters

4:33
Jeff Sullivan: The Astros are — and I mean this — absurdly good

4:33
Jeff Sullivan: It is absurd for a baseball team to be so good

4:33
Nate: It’s nice to see FG taking a whole staff approach to beer advice since Eno’s departure

4:33
Sean Dolinar: We’ll probably have less beer in the Winter Meetings suite, though.

4:34
Jeff Sullivan: Some of us have to work, Sean

4:34
Dan Szymborski: Beer is the work-lubricant.

4:34
Jeff Sullivan: If you are happy with your work being bad

4:34
Meg Rowley: In a postseason where we’ve talked a lot about the obvious weaknesses some teams have, it seems like we haven’t talked enough about how stupidly balanced the Astros are, too.

4:35
Jeff Sullivan: Their only real problem is whether Carlos Correa is back to being Carlos Correa yet

4:35
Sean Dolinar: I know! When am I not on my laptop at an FG thing?

4:35
Dan Szymborski: By bad, you mean great.

4:35
Jeff Sullivan: Sean raises a good point. Sean is easily the FanGraphs MVP. His work is just different and harder than ours

4:36
Meg Rowley: Strong agree.

4:36
schmoo: Chacin works a clean first despite *rocky* start. Get it? Rocky?

4:36
Jeff Sullivan: I forgot how these chats go off the rails when there are two games overlapping

4:36
Dan Szymborski: Or just that I’m around.

4:36
Jay Jaffe: to say nothing of two questions overlapping.

4:36
Meg Rowley: Me, several times: I can’t figure this out, I have ruined The Hardball Times! Sean, five seconds later: Fixed it.

4:36
Sean Dolinar: Awww…thanks guys!

4:37
Phil: Wouldn’t 1, 4, 7, and 10 ET have been a better solution for the start times??? That way there is less overlap. I won’t see the Rockies game until it is maybe the 4th inning.

4:37
CamdenWarehouse: then who is the FG Cy Young?

4:37
Dan Szymborski: Apples FanGraphs.

4:37
Meg Rowley: I think they’ll take the overlap to avoid that late of a last game start.

4:37
Jeff Sullivan: Also these games always go five hours anyway

4:38
Daniel: Isn’t it insane that the defending world series Houston Astros have to play only day games in the division series?

4:38
Dan Szymborski: Maybe they’re reverse vampires and it helps them.

4:38
jj: Oh by Fangraphs chat, you mean all the writers at fangraphs chat with each other and we just watch…cool. Can you have this everytime you have a ‘team’ meeting?

4:38
Sean Dolinar: Be careful what you ask for.

4:38
Meg Rowley: (shudders)

4:39
Nick: Why are some pitchers able to adjust with age but not others? Humans are incredibly malleable, it seems really sad that some players would be too stubborn to make the changes necessary to continue being effective. Though I doubt it’s due to players not trying, but just a matter of mental makeup?

4:39
Jeff Sullivan: There’s also the matter of why a player declines in the first place

4:39
Jeff Sullivan: If it’s just a physical problem, well, you can’t get re-athletic

4:39
Jeff Sullivan: And who’s to say finding the right adjustments is easy?

4:40
Jay Jaffe: throwing a baseball repeatedly with high intensity is an unhealthy act. there’s just no getting around it. Some bodies age better than others while doing it.

4:40
Anonymous: Reverse vampires can only enter homes they’re not invited into.

4:40
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah. Verlander is the exception; Felix is more of the rule

4:40
Dan Szymborski:

4:41
Dan Szymborski: Check. Mate.

4:41
Gary: As an Astros fan…I’m starting to wonder what we were thinking with our bullpen a little. I love Josh James, but how do you leave 4 guys out who have been so clutch for you historically over the last year in a playoff series? And what’s the point of carrying Jake Marisnick and Myles Straw over adding one more RP? Ryan Pressly is a monster that deserves more love though

4:41
Jeff Sullivan: Rotation is going to work so deep and you can change the roster for the ALCS if you want

4:41
Guest: Plus, not everyone can find a Kate Upton

4:41
Jay Jaffe: for all of the complaints about day games, the one damn absurdity about playoff baseball is when they overlap and we can’t stream one game on a device while watching another on the TV.

4:42
Derek: How did the Astros get such a stacked bullpen? Like, I recall their bullpen being good last year, but not this.

4:42
Jeff Sullivan: Good signings, good trades, good player development, one acquisition of a player suspended for domestic violence

4:43
Jeff Sullivan: Pressly is a good example of two of their strengths

4:43
Jordan: Can we petition Dave Cameron to do a post season chat?

4:43
Jeff Sullivan: I imagine he feels extremely liberated right now

4:44
Jeff Sullivan: Working with the Padres, he always gets October off!

4:44
Jeff Sullivan: (hold for applause)

4:44
Jay Jaffe: (sad trombone)

4:45
Jeff Sullivan: (In reality, October is extremely busy for people who work for bad teams)

4:45
Jeff Sullivan: (Working for teams is extremely busy)

4:45
Anonymous: Seems weird to run these ‘Enough talk. Let the kids play.’ commercials during a game in which Brian McCann is employed.

4:45
Jeff Sullivan: But notice they’re making Brian McCann sit and watch

4:46
Meg Rowley: Why do you think his face is like that?

4:46
Jeff Sullivan: Vaccines

4:46
Mister Puppy : Dave is currently trying to talk the Padres out of giving Adam Jones a multi-year deal

4:47
Jeff Sullivan: Dave is probably trying to figure out how to have *fewer* outfielders

4:47
Phil: More than just getting some hardware and a World Series shot, Donaldson likely has a lot riding on the Indians getting deep into the playoffs. The more evidence he can show he is healthy, the better…

4:48
Bebop: did the Cards make a mistake in giving Shildt the permanent job? sounds like Girardi really wanted the gig

4:48
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, they say they were prepping him for like more than a decade

4:49
Jeff Sullivan: I think they always wanted him in there at some point

4:50
Guest: Any thoughts on the Red Sox taking Joe Kelly over Hembree?

4:50
Jeff Sullivan: They are identically unreliable

4:50
Jeff Sullivan: So basically they took the guy with the fastball

4:50
mike89: How do you think the spread of the Opener is going to change the “relief” pitcher market? Will there be particular… opener type guys like closers that make more?

4:52
Meg Rowley: Others might disagree, but I don’t think so? If anything, this year has been like that line from Anton Ego’s review in Ratatouille: not everyone can relieve, but a good reliever can come from anywhere.

4:53
jj: Is there really a ‘spread’ of openers? I don’t think teams are actively planning to be using Openers are they. Isn’t it more out of necessity? I don’t think we will see a GM say – “we really wanted to sign him so he can pitch the first against the Cubs.”

4:53
Meg Rowley: Also, this.

4:54
Meg Rowley: Even the Rays weren’t doing it because they wanted to. They were looking for creative solutions to almost everyone on their staff being hurt.

4:56
Jeff Sullivan: Pitcher-walk in the Brewers/Rockies game

4:57
Jeff Sullivan: Pitcher-walk followed by Charlie Blackmon showing bunt

4:57
Jeff Sullivan: Stupid wonderful sport

4:57
Meg Rowley: Not sure if everyone saw the Yankees/A’s beer throwing deal, but on a day when many are having… a day, I present, a good thing:

Met up with the guy who threw beer on me. He apologized and took me out for drinks. We had a good time. Spread love
5 Oct 2018
4:59
Anonymous: BASEBALL RUN AWAY

4:59
Anonymous: I feel like that’s a perfectly fine location for a mid-90’s FB

4:59
E: Oh we got a Bauer sighting in the pen

4:59
Dan Szymborski: Then they threw beer on the guy with the Reds hat in a display of AL solidarity.

4:59
Jeff Sullivan: Going to be the Indians’ “secret” weapon out of the pen, with so many guys seemingly unreliable

5:00
BK: As  a Braves fan, I’m jealous of all the dingers everyone else is hitting

5:00
Jeff Sullivan: Plenty of time for hitting dingers when you’re dead

5:00
Meg Rowley: Does he do his whole extended warm up thing every day then?

5:01
Strelok: am I hallucinating or does it seem like players are calling time in teh box way more often than in regular season games because it’s driving me nuts

5:01
Meg Rowley: Really hard to say if it is more, but seems fair to say it happens too much.

5:01
Slurve: Is/Was Robles a higher-rated prospect than Soto?

5:01
Jeff Sullivan: Yarp

5:02
Meg Rowley: For all the focus on mound visits and pitch clocks, good lord could they save time if they stopped granting time all the time.

5:02
Brian CashGod: Odds that a fight breaks out at some point during the Yanks / Sox ALDS? Any higher with Joe Kelly on the Sox roster?

5:02
Jeff Sullivan: A playoff brawl would be exceptionally stupid

5:03
Jeff Sullivan: You usually don’t see players act stupidly when they could be suspended for the duration of a series

5:03
Jeff Sullivan: Although there will be dozens of fights in the stands

5:03
Jeff Sullivan: Bauer now pitching for the Indians. OK

5:04
Meg Rowley: “Getting a blood flow going on”

5:05
Meg Rowley: Remember when Trevor Bauer starred in a Cronenberg movie in the postseason and we all watched?

5:07
Jeff Sullivan: Chacin out of a third-inning jam. Astros and Indians, meanwhile, still playing

5:07
lorenzocaine: Burning Bauer here with in a 3-run hole with 6 outs left seems…aggresive no?

5:07
Jeff Sullivan: If you listen to Bauer, Bauer could pitch every day!

5:07
Derek: If you could combine an NL starting rotation with an NL bullpen from teams in the playoff, would that even be close to the Astros overall staff? Dodgers SPs + Brewers RPs maybe?

5:07
Jeff Sullivan: Close, but Astros probably still better

5:08
Nate: I think they are calling time more often because pitchers are being extra special careful about their signs, especially with runners on

5:08
Jeff Sullivan: Agree

5:09
Jeff Sullivan: Everything — everything — is slower in the playoffs

5:09
Meg Rowley: You mean it isn’t because Robinson Cano’s elbow pad came loose? Well I’ll be darned.

5:09
Meg Rowley: I meant generally, clearly Robbie is not playing in either of these game. I MEAN, CLEARLY.

5:10
AlGoneQuinn: Is it deja vu for Arizona that they drafted and tried to develop Max Scherzer and then traded him before he got really, really good, and then it happened again with Trevor Bauer?

5:10
Jeff Sullivan: Given how long Bauer took to get here, I don’t think Arizona is too broken up about it

5:10
Jeff Sullivan: Especially since like no one in the organization is still there

5:11
Meg Rowley: I can’t decide if I would find it a relief or lonely to be left alone in the dugout as a starting pitcher.

5:12
Hank: Is American hero Luke Voit the Yankees starting 1st baseman next year?

5:12
Jeff Sullivan: Shouldn’t be

5:12
Jeff Sullivan: Could be Andujar!

5:13
Meg Rowley: No part of me will remember that Erik Kratz is on this Brewers team.

5:13
Meg Rowley: Not one single brain cell will retain that after this month.

5:13
stever20: what’s the over/under for time of game in the Red Sox/Yankees game tonight?

5:13
Jeff Sullivan: This year their median game length was 3:20

5:14
Jeff Sullivan: Add 30 minutes or so for the playoffs and there you go. Over/under at 3:50

5:14
jj: Brad Peackock is better than most teams 2nd best RP and he isn’t good enough to be on the roster right now…..

5:14
Jeff Sullivan: The bullpen the Astros didn’t bring to the playoffs is probably better than the bullpen the Braves did bring to the playoffs

5:15
Hold me close, ohtani dancer: So… safe to say Bauer isn’t his mid-season self right now?

5:15
Jeff Sullivan: Not playing in the AL Central anymore

5:15
Joey Wheeler: I think the Astros went with September preformances

5:15
Jeff Sullivan: Lots of teams did that with their bullpen selections, apparently

5:16
Frank: Would you have PH for Chacin right here?

5:16
Jeff Sullivan: Too soon, for me

5:16
slappybag: I like when lesser-known players take their helmets/caps off and you see their head/hair for the first time. Now I know Chris Iannetta is bald.

5:16
Derek: I may be a masochist, but as a Red Sox fan there is almost nothing in the world I would look forward to more than a 4+ hour Red Sox-Yankee playoff game.

5:16
Jeff Sullivan: Good news, Derek!

5:17
Meg Rowley: More Iannettas than Yeliches.

5:17
Meg Rowley: I guess in a lot of ways.

5:17
Jeff Sullivan: Hair can be annoying when you always wear a hat

5:17
Anonymous: How important is it for the infielders to know what pitch their guy is about to throw?

5:17
Jeff Sullivan: Very modestly important for the middle infielders

5:18
Jeff Sullivan: Indians/Astros at three hours and 11 minutes so far, with 1.5 innings to go

5:19
Jeff Sullivan: McCullers now in for the Astros. Which means, according to the research I just published a couple hours ago, today will feature perhaps the top five pitches in the game

5:19
Jeff Sullivan: Kluber breaking ball, Verlander fastball, McCullers curveball, Kershaw slider, and Chacin slider

5:20
Meg Rowley: Braun up with the bases loaded and two out in Milwaukee.

5:20
Jeff Sullivan: Right on that curveball. Just swung a bit over it

5:21
Meg Rowley: There are now three outs.

5:21
Jeff Sullivan: And a big wet fart of a rally. Still scoreless in Milwaukee!

5:21
Sleeping Beauty: I think signs are less important now that teams employ positional strategies (shifts, etc.) , which I gather are based on batter performance which dictates how a team pitches a specific batter.  So, my point is that defensive positioning is already taking into account the overall pitching strategy.

5:22
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, but you still cheat, as a defender

5:22
stever20: to include Monday’s 163 games- all 6 games so far this week have gone over 3 hours, with 4 of the 6 games over 3:20.

5:22
Jeff Sullivan: Always happens this time of year. The three-hour baseball game is a myth

5:22
catboy: do the brewers have the largest collection of Big Boys [aguilar, shaw, chacin, kratz] of the remaining teams?

5:22
Meg Rowley: The Yankees have Stanton, Judge, Voit, and Betances who we have forgotten is a Giant Person

5:22
Statomatic: All the pundits are picking Sox over Yankees, but Dan’s updated ZiPS probabilities have the Yankees as slight favorites. Inneresting…

5:22
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Yankees are better

5:23
Anonymous: Did Jaffe and Dan irish goodbye us?!

5:23
Jeff Sullivan: Jay has family stuff and evening plans, and Dan I think said he’d be in and out

5:24
stever20: So tonight.  Sale/Kershaw.  Which one do you trust more?

5:24
Meg Rowley: Kershaw.

5:24
James: Can hitters use subtle defensive changes to predict what pitch is coming?

5:24
Jeff Sullivan: They happen too late in the pitch sequence to adjust to

5:25
Matt: Any team have more pressure than the Indians to win it all this year?  I understand the Red Sox had the best record, the Yanks won 100 and the Astros are defending champs, but I feel the Indians window is closing rapidly.  Sure, they have J-Ram and Lindor for the next several years, BUT, EE has one year left and is getting on the older side, Kluber will be 33 and Carrasco 32 by the beginning  of next season, then factor in Allen and Miller are both FAs.  It kind of feels like this year and MAYBE next year before their window closes.

5:25
Craig Edwards: The chat appears to be running smoothly, so I’m just going to stop by and say hello and confirm that Miller Park is really loud.

5:25
Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, their division is going to suck for a while

5:25
Meg Rowley: Craig were the polite Midwesterners very upset about Braun striking out?

5:27
Meg Rowley: Or flying out rather?

5:27
Sean Dolinar: Have you had cheese curds, yet, Craig?

5:27
Meg Rowley: I’m doing a great job paying attention to multiple screens.

5:29
Anonymous: That’s a new one. The ump just took a walk when the player called timeout. What a time to be alive.

5:29
Jeff Sullivan: Gotta stretch it out when the games take forever

5:29
Sunset Blvd: Desmond ready for his close-up

5:29
Jeff Sullivan: Desmond is always ready for his close-up

5:30
5 Run Homer: Missing out on these first two games to drive home for thanksgiving suuuuuuuucks

5:30
Jeff Sullivan: I think you’re going to be early

5:30
Jeff Sullivan: Oh I’ll be god damned, it’s almost Canadian Thanksgiving!

5:30
Meg Rowley: Be thankful you’re Canadian, imo.

5:30
Jeff Sullivan: If it helps, the Astros/Indians game hasn’t been that exciting!

5:30
Jesse: Has the midwest successfully adopted poutine? It seems like as the cheese curd capital they should be well set up to.

5:30
Sean Dolinar: I’ve seen it more in Pittsburgh over the last 5 years.   Not entirely sure about the deep midwest.  I prefer them in poutine vs. fried. Except the State St Brats in Madison. The dressing/dipping sauce they give out with the curds is amazing.

5:31
Hold me close, ohtani dancer: I find it a little unbelievable that anything dellin betances throws isn’t one of the top pitches in the game

5:31
Jeff Sullivan: I set the inning minimums too high because I was looking for starters

5:32
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really care if a pitch is great for an inning at a time

5:32
Matthew: I thought AJ Pierzynski was the most universally-despised player in baseball. How did he become an announcer on national broadcasts?

5:32
Jeff Sullivan: He talks a lot and was available

5:32
Matt: Why are the Indians WS odds so high? 4% higher than any other AL team, but they have arguably the worst position players of any AL team, middle of the pack starters depending on Bauer’s usage, and the worst bullpen.

5:32
Sean Dolinar: The projections / depth charts really like them. Season-to-date isn’t so high on them.

5:33
Jeff Sullivan: Related to that, the projections really like Josh Donaldson still

5:34
stever20: With Freeland and Marquez waiting for Colorado, how big is this game for Milwaukee today?

5:35
Jeff Sullivan: Important, of course, but the Brewers have the better position players and bullpen so it’s not like they’d be massive underdogs with a loss

5:35
Hold me close, ohtani dancer: If y’all don’t mind we can just switch this chat over to pictures of Jeff brooding on misty mountaintops he’s summited

5:35
Jeff Sullivan: Who would ever brood from a mountain top?!

5:35
Jeff Sullivan: Mountains are for happiness

5:35
Jeff Sullivan: Happiness and sometimes death

5:36
Meg Rowley: Mostly happiness though

5:36
J: Haven’t been following the Indians closely, why did they use Bauer when they were down by 4?

5:36
Jeff Sullivan: Guessing it was just to keep him fresh and get him engaged

5:36
Jeff Sullivan: Only threw 16 pitches

5:37
Sleeping Beauty: Even if you shorten the season, don’t you think a 7-game DS would wreck bullpens.  They’d be exhausted by start of WS – maybe the are already

5:37
Guest: It’s probably just me, but as someone who’s lived in Cleveland my whole life, I’ve never even heard of poutine.

5:37
Sean Dolinar: Raw cheese curds & gravy on top of fries. It’s delicious and originated in Quebec. Wisconsin is famous for their cheese curds, but those are typically fried like mozzarella sticks.

5:37
Zoidberg: There is plenty of poutine in Milwaukee.

5:38
Meg Rowley: I think the format we have works pretty well. You don’t guarantee the best team wins but you wouldn’t with two more games either.

5:39
Daniel: Isn’t part of the fun of the playoffs the fact that you can’t guarantee the best team wins?

5:39
Meg Rowley: It doesn’t bother me.

5:41
stever20: why does the Fangraphs FIP include IW?

5:41
Sean Dolinar: I don’t have a great answer for that other than originators (Tango?) didn’t remove them.  We don’t remove IBB for a lot of metrics.

5:42
Jeff Sullivan: Gotta leave you all in Meg and Sean’s capable hands. Be well!

5:43
Meg Rowley: Bye Jeff! Mountain fun only please!

5:45
Tyler: Will this chat continue for the Sox Yankee game?

5:45
Meg Rowley: I think we will cut it off after the Brewers-Rockies game ends

5:45
Meg Rowley: The FanGraphs servers might melt with the taeks.

5:46
Craig Edwards: To answer your questions, Sean-I’m eating cheese curds right now. Meg-the crowd seems to have three levels. Anticipation level loud, like right now. Good things happening level loud, like right now. and then everything else, which is like a low hum of chatting.

5:46
Anonymous: Are the Brewers the NLs best hope?

5:47
Meg Rowley: The Dodgers are good! But I like this Brewers team a lot.

5:47
Meg Rowley: You worry about pitching from different ends.

5:47
Meg Rowley: But like, the Dodgers are real good.

5:48
Bud Black’s Scowl: Getting beat by Hernan Perez really sucks

5:48
Meg Rowley: I often wonder how much it ends up feeling different.

5:48
schmoo: Winning the pennant used to be having the most wins in your league (presumably because you would get, you know, a pennant). Now to get that same, shiny pennant, you must win the DS and CS. Is there something lost in not having a reward for winning a boat load of regular season games (outside of home field through the playoffs)?

5:48
Sean Dolinar: I agree there’s some fairness lost because the best team doesn’t win, but it’s a trade off. This tournament is a month of a exciting baseball with strategies and players being used to their extremes.

5:49
Meg Rowley: I know what you mean, because man, *that* guy. But getting trounced by Justin Verlander can’t feel awesome either.

5:49
Anonymous: We’re doing picklebacks!

5:49
BK: Interesting play

5:51
Big Hank: Orange marlin man is attending the game but outside of camera frame

5:51
Meg Rowley: Are… are you in my Google Docs? Get out of there!

5:51
OddBall Herrera: Haven’t gotten to see any games today – have there been any more controversial hugs yet?

5:52
Meg Rowley: Nope. Bergman was out in a rundown but elected not to hug.

5:52
Meg Rowley: Might not be a hugger. Not everyone is a hugger.

5:53
stever20: boy, Alex Bregman has some sort of post season homer against list now.  Sale (2), Kershaw, Jansen, and Kluber…

5:53
Meg Rowley: He isn’t the MVP (and postseason home runs don’t make you an MVP) but he is incredibly good at baseball.

5:53
Meg Rowley: And I submit, the exact perfect amount of redass.

5:54
Muxosk : Who is the most likely hugger left in contention?

5:54
Meg Rowley: Kiké, right?

5:54
Kenley Jansen: Puig

5:54
Meg Rowley: He is more into other stuff it seems.

5:55
Meg Rowley: A hugger sure, but a more enthusiastic other stuff guy.

5:55
Meg Rowley: Well that phrasing sure was weird, wasn’t it.

5:56
Zero Carbs: Tyler Anderson looks thinner

5:56
Meg Rowley: Then when?

5:56
larryv: do fans of other leagues care much about “best regular season” trophies?

5:57
Meg Rowley: Don’t think so? Most fans of most sports care about how the regular season sets you up for postseason play.

5:57
Zero Carbs: LOL, The first inning?

5:57
Meg Rowley: I don’t think stress is that fast acting.

5:58
jj: most fans in the world care about best regular season.  not in the US.

5:58
Meg Rowley: I assume the implications are a little different?

6:00
Pitch_Out: With the Yankees, Red Sox, and astros employing Chapman, Wright, and osuna respectively. Do we have to collectively root for the Indians in the AL? What about indigenous persons who dislike domestic violence? NL only?

6:01
Meg Rowley: I think it is important (if depressing) to remember that no team lives up to its receipts. They might fail in different ways, and hurt or being indifferent to the hurt of different people, but no team is spotless. For instance, none of them pay their minor leaguers a living wage.

6:01
Meg Rowley: I don’t expect fans to abandon their teams, though if that is what feels right, that is an option.

6:02
Meg Rowley: Fixing this is the responsibility of the league and the teams. I don’t think, for instance, survivors of intimate partner violence who root for the Astros should have to stop cheering for Altuve because Luhnow made a mean, unnecessary trade.

6:03
Meg Rowley: All of which is to say, it’s a deeply personal thing. If you have the means to donate to a local shelter or counseling service, that’s a good option.

6:04
Gila Monster: Why is Jon Gray not the roster? I mean he is AT LEAST a ok bullpen arm given he would throw in the upper-90s. The Rockies hate him for some reason.

6:04
Meg Rowley: I think it’s the inconsistency (I mean, duh) but remember they can reset after each stage if they advance.

6:04
Meg Rowley: He had a really weird-ass year.

6:05
Taylor: Why aren’t we talking more about Chris Sale’s fastball velocity? 90.3mph just last week!!

6:05
Meg Rowley: It’s been a pretty big story line going into this series, I think!

6:06
Craig Edwards: Gray had a pretty bad September-not bad luck, just bad. Also, the guy who took his spot on the roster, DJ Johnson, pitched well last night.

6:06
Meg Rowley: Yup. And what a cool story!

6:08
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Did Mike Moustakas do enough this year to get a multi-year deal?  What will he get?

6:09
Meg Rowley: He’s 30 with a 105 wRC+, and the market is pretty skeptical about those types.

6:09
Disco is Dead: Rockies forgot to bring their bats to Milwaukee

6:09
Meg Rowley: How embarrassing.

6:10
Meg Rowley: The Rockies having the lineup they did and going “Yup, we’re good” remains whacky

6:10
larryv: I’ve read quite a bit about Sale’s velo lately. then again, i’m in a FG live chat

6:10
Meg Rowley: And larryv? We appreciate it.

6:11
Josh: Its really too bad Daniel Murphy and Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen weren’t available to them. I feel like the Rockies would have jumped on that chance

6:11
Meg Rowley: Whacky!

6:13
Ginny: or even earlier – angels traded CJ Cron for peanuts before the season, he would have been a 2.5 win swing over desmond playing first every day

6:13
Meg Rowley: Such a lot of whacky!

6:14
Old Testament : Cain will get on here, if he’s able

6:14
Meg Rowley: The baseball gods knew this was in the queue and punished him for it.

6:15
Andrew: But Chris Iannetta is pretty great.

6:15
Meg Rowley: depends which version of his framing you get, I suppose

6:16
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: How silly will the Yelich trade be in 5 years?

6:16
Meg Rowley: It’s silly now.

6:18
ChatzMcGee: The Braves have to be pretty worried about Albies, right? His approach got exposed to the tune of 67 wRC+ in he second half, and he looks like a below average hitter from the right side. Can they really expect above average hitting from him next year?

6:19
Meg Rowley: Sorry was looking something up

6:19
Meg Rowley: I think they are some worried the way you’re always some worried when you’re waiting to see if a guy can adjust to the league’s adjustment.

6:19
Lola: This is probably a career year for Yelich, huh?

6:21
Meg Rowley: It has been spectacular. He has taken a legitimate step forward. If the defense could improve some…

6:21
Joey Wheeler: Are mullets in

6:21
Meg Rowley: Only Charlie Blackmon’s and only on him.

6:21
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Which MLB player’s face would make the best Jack O’Lantern?

6:21
Meg Rowley: Any catcher in a catcher’s mask.

6:21
Meg Rowley: Definitely the spookiest.

6:22
Seth Moko: Does the Brewers’ bullpen usage vary significantly from other playoff teams? I feel like they use Knebel against other team’s best hitters regardless of inning and match in other interesting ways

6:24
Meg Rowley: They’re more dependent than many, but it isn’t like there aren’t other teams (NYY, HOU) with good situational options

6:24
Rockies Hitters: Inept

6:24
Meg Rowley: Excuse you, two of them are very good.

6:24
Orioles Hitters: Inept

6:25
Meg Rowley: Better. Mean still. But better.

6:25
larryv: seeing Charlie Blackmon’s mullet on someone else would raise a few questions

6:26
Meg Rowley: A lot of people say that most ballplayers are pretty anonymous on the street and that is true, but having seen Blackmon in street clothes, I can tell you he is VERY recognizable

6:26
Lola: I mean ppl tend to get excited when players have these amazing years (I’m thinking Harper MVP) and then disappointed when they return to their above average selves. I find myself enjoying these spectacular years but not expecting them to be the norm moving forward.

6:27
Meg Rowley: Yes. The consistency is a thing to marvel at, and perhaps not expect. I think he has the capacity to continue to be really, really good, even if it isn’t an MVP season.

6:27
Craig Edwards: The brat won the sausage race.

6:27
Meg Rowley: THE MOST IMPORTANT REPORTING

6:27
Meg Rowley: I think one thing we sometimes don’t appreciate enough about Mike Trout is how Trouty he manages to be year after year. I know we say we know. But we could know it better.

6:29
Craig Edwards: Keeping Anderson in feels like a huge gamble for the Rockies.

6:29
Meg Rowley: I am making the grimace emoji face

6:29
Muxosk : Has Betts put himself in the catagory with Trout of being clearly better than the rest of baseball?

6:30
Meg Rowley: Another year, and I think so.

6:31
Meg Rowley: Now, that’s a tier. It isn’t just him and Trout.

6:32
Matt: Over the last 3 seasons combined, Mookie has a 140 wRC+. Mike Trout has a 180. Next below Trout is JDM at 161. Cookie is very good at baseball. Elite, even. But LOL at comparing him to Trout.

6:32
Meg Rowley: Being in a category doesn’t mean there aren’t internal rankings within the category.

6:33
Meg Rowley: No one should worry: I think Mike Trout is the best player in baseball.

6:33
Matt: I only argue because Trout isn’t in a category. He *is* a category.

6:33
CamdenWarehouse: I think Trout deserves his own tier, then there can be a tier with Mookie and Kershaw and Altuve, etc.

6:35
Meg Rowley: Reasonable opinions. I have a tier of friend I call best friends. I have my best best friend. The question was posed as clearly better than the rest of baseball. Trout leads that pack. He has some less-good pals.

6:36
OddBall Herrera: All this ‘who’s the best’ stuff is veering dangerously close to sports radio hot-takery.  Any minute now someone’s going to yell “if he’s the best SHOW ME THE RINGS”

6:36
Meg Rowley: Well I control the queue so…

6:36
Brandon M: I know I’m in the minority here, but this is the most interesting DS matchup to me

6:36
Craig Edwards: Working to confirm that Ian Desmond actually got a base hit.

6:37
Meg Rowley: Seems wrong, Craig

6:38
Billy Eppler: Trout to the Phillies, what’s the haul?  Might as well trade him this off-season because two years of control is better than one?

6:38
Meg Rowley: I just really don’t think they ever trade him.

6:39
Meg Rowley: I’m sure they’ll listen, but I just don’t see the package ever really making sense.

6:39
Meg Rowley: And I think we perhaps underrate the human desire not to have that be the first line of a GM’s obit.

6:39
Muxosk : I don’t think I ever really realized that Ian Desmond and Ian Kinsler are 2 seperate players until this season.

6:39
Meg Rowley: With some unavoidable disrespect to Kinsler, you apologize to Ian Desmond’s face for mistaking it for Kinsler’s.

6:40
Meg Rowley: Well that was screwy.

6:41
carrotjuice: Wait we’re ending the chat right when perhaps the greatest sports rivalry meet in the postseason for the first time since that amazing 2004 ALCS? Boooo.

6:41
Craig Edwards: Big moment for Matt Holliday. The crowd booed him last night.

6:42
Meg Rowley: Folks are busy this evening, and it is hard to write about a game if you’re chatting about it.

6:42
Muxosk : Fangraphs doesn’t have headshots how am I supposed to know what everyone looks like?

6:42
Meg Rowley: Watch baseball imo.

6:43
Brandon M: That was not a good at bat

6:43
Meg Rowley: Could have gone better.

6:43
McCutcheons Erstwhile Beard: Noooo, I got some good material I wanna try out

6:44
Meg Rowley: Twitter! Oh god.

6:44
Matt: How much is Miller-Coors loving this matchup?

6:45
Meg Rowley: Surprised it hasn’t been more of joking thing, honestly.

6:45
Meg Rowley: Having been to both ballparks, I can say that I give the slightest edge to Miller but only because the tailgating thing is pretty rad, and they have (or had) a better craft beer selection.

6:45
Nick: Always surprises me when clubs score few runs when they should score more runs. You’d think they’d try harder!

6:46
Meg Rowley: It is useful to be reminded that baseball is very, very hard

6:46
Meg Rowley: Every hit is a miracle.

6:46
Matt: There’s a point where the value that an acquiring team would need to give up to obtain two years of Mike Trout would end up being a net-loss in on-field performance. Mike Trout can only hit Mike Trout in once per PA. But, in theory, a bevy of players of significantly better than average talent would have more impact. No?

6:46
Sean Dolinar: It depends on where your team is.  Teams that need to strike gold on talent benefit from having multiple players that might be 3.0+ WAR players. But teams that’s are already well constructed and in their window would really benefit from Trout or any player that can concrete that much talent into one roster spot.  Just as PA are limited per game, you only have 25 roster spots…and only 9 line up spots.

6:46
OddBall Herrera: Coors field has the view going for it, and a plus is you’re not in Milwaukee 😉

6:46
Meg Rowley: Milwaukee is cool and also cheaper.

6:46
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Why is “erstwhile” popping up all over FG? Is it Carson’s word of the month?

6:47
Sean Dolinar: He’s been using that for a while.

6:47
Meg Rowley: I believe I used it first, and Carson isn’t here to disagree.

6:47
carrotjuice: Tied ga-nope, nevermind

6:47
Meg Rowley: How is this game only in the 7th?

6:49
Disco is Dead: Because one team has only recorded 18 outs

6:49
Meg Rowley: Jokes!

6:49
Craig Edwards: At Miller Park they also sing roll out the barrel in the 7th inning stretch, which is a very good and unique tradition.

6:49
CamdenWarehouse: please tell me Carson actually does have a word of the month

6:49
Meg Rowley: I think he does and he sneaks it into every post and he doesn’t tell us.

6:50
Matt: I’m a transplanted Yankee fan that lives is Chicago. When is it no longer too soon to ask my friends to watch the Post Season at the bar with me?

6:50
OddBall Herrera: Actually I grew up in the midwest so nothing personal about Milwaukee, I just felt like casting aspersions

6:50
Sean Dolinar: Didn’t they intentionally build the stadium in the middle of massive parking lots for tailgating? Which bucked the trend of urban-centered stadia in the early 00s.

6:50
Meg Rowley: They did.

6:50
Meg Rowley: It is rad, and probably also dangerous from a safe driving perspective.

6:51
Meg Rowley: As for Matt, I’d think this series is the least painful because the Cubs wouldn’t be playing the Yankees right now anyway.

6:51
OddBall Herrera: Please tell me the mound visit rule will be in place and enforced for the Red Sox/Yankees series.  God those games can be unwatchable sometimes

6:51
Meg Rowley: The mound visit rule extends to the playoffs, yes.

6:52
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Miller Park has the ambiance of a shopping mall

6:52
Meg Rowley: Disagree

6:52
Valtr: Cubs fans wouldn’t want to see MIL doing well though

6:52
Meg Rowley: Well presumably he wants to watch the Yankees play.

6:52
Brian CashGod: I like the trend of urban parks, but tailgating before a game is also a fine way to spend an afternoon. Used to be a thing at Turner Field too, they had a huge parking lot.

6:53
Meg Rowley: It is much better generally, I agree, but it is nice to tailgate

6:53
Meg Rowley: I guess it probably ends up being a wash $$ wise if you that. You spend on parking but can eat a bunch of food and drink beers before you go in.

6:54
Sean Dolinar: I’m personally a huge fan of public transportation to games.  The Red Line in Chicago is my favorite in that regard.

6:55
CamdenWarehouse: Is it that hard to have both an urban stadium and tailgating spots? I haven’t been to that many parks, though OPACY checks both boxes.

6:55
Craig Edwards: Jeffress warming up in the pen right now. Granderson in on-deck circle for Hader.

6:55
Meg Rowley: It’s expensive to do that in urban areas.

6:57
Larry: Is it weird that I would kind of want to keep Hader in and forgo the PH opportunity?

6:57
Meg Rowley: There are weirder things. I’m not sure it’s terribly strategic.

6:57
Disco is Dead: Rockies have scored 6 runs in their last 39 innings

6:57
Meg Rowley: Seems like not enough, and yet, importantly enough a couple times.

6:59
Craig Edwards: the 2 run per game average would look pretty good right now.

7:02
Matt: I can’t help but want to pronounce Schoop’s name in a way that I assume would be consistent with how Salt ‘n’ Peppa would pronounce it.

7:02
Meg Rowley: As long as you pronounce it correctly when you say it out loud.

7:03
Guest: I think Philadelphia works really well, they have all their parks at the very end of one of their Subway lines

7:04
Meg Rowley: Yeah, Safeco has reasonable bus and light rail access

7:04
Meg Rowley: It’s good

7:04
Brandon M: We get NYY-BOS tonight and tomorrow, and then we get UT-OU tomorrow?! What a great weekend for sports

7:05
Meg Rowley: One of the funny thing about college sports is how much we assume other people care about our specific rivalries (even famous ones). College sports are even more local than baseball.

7:06
Nat: whoa they did a version of the Yu Darvish gif (you know the one) for the Scott Oberg v. Schoop at bat. Very cool.

7:06
Nat: “They” should do that more

7:06
Meg Rowley: It’s a very effective way to illustrate just what hitters have to deal with

7:06
Jesse: I don’t even know if that’s referring to University of Tennessee or Texas

7:06
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Utah and Oregon play tomorrow?

7:07
Sean Dolinar: Local…except for Notre Dame.

7:08
Meg Rowley: Which, given the size of the city, is very funny

7:08
Sean Dolinar: I had no clue where Notre Dame was until high school. It was almost like it existed in another mythical world.

7:10
Disco is Dead: these MIL/COL games have been very entertaining so far

7:10
Sean Dolinar: I would expand it to all games played in the midwest…all those have been good, close games including game 163s.

7:10
CamdenWarehouse: it’s in France, Sean. Come on

7:11
Sean Dolinar: ^ Notre Dame.

7:13
Walter Benjamin: Schoop is from the Dutch Antilles, and his name is not an untypical Dutch name: I’d say he is pronounced “Skhhhhoup”. Type it into google translate if you want to hear it. Impossible to write pseudo-phonetically

7:13
Sean Dolinar: I’m out! Happy baseball everyone!

7:13
Meg Rowley: His Baseball-Reference page says: \Scope\

7:13
Meg Rowley: Bye Sean!

7:13
CamdenWarehouse: bye sean

7:14
Nick: If a pitcher is on, are the batters just screwed usually? It seems like good hitting relies a lot on pitchers making mistakes and punishing them.

7:14
Meg Rowley: Hitting is really hard no matter what. But even good pitchers make mistakes and even non-mistakes get hit.

7:16
LeMathieu the Free Agent: Any way you spin it, DJ’s record in Colorado was exemplary.

7:16
Meg Rowley: Oh brother.

7:16
Nick: Story’s plate discipline has been garbage this series.

7:17
Meg Rowley: It hasn’t been what you would call the best.

7:17
Nick: That was a good take though.

7:17
Meg Rowley: Yeah.

7:17
Meg Rowley: It would be very hard to resist pressing.

7:18
Meg Rowley: Especially behind, and knowing you’re one of two dudes who can consistently do anything.

7:19
Meg Rowley: Craig who is going to pitch this inning?

7:20
Brandon M: Is there a difference in home crowds during playoffs? Or are all fans pretty much equally pumped up no matter the team?

7:21
Meg Rowley: I think all crowds are situational, but the baseline is pretty similar, with the exception of teams back for the first time in a while, which might be a special kind of nuts

7:21
Craig Edwards: Nobody up in the pen for Milwaukee.

7:21
Craig Edwards: have to think Oh is coming in after Yelich

7:22
Craig Edwards: he’s been warming for a while.

7:22
Meg Rowley: Thank you kindly

7:22
Guest: lots of people at the games in Milwaukee won’t remember much of the game

7:22
Meg Rowley: I think this is true everywhere

7:22
Meg Rowley: which is an impulse I’ve never quite understood

7:23
CamdenWarehouse: any idea what the rest of the night’s chat cast looks like?

7:23
Meg Rowley: Empty. Cold. Alone.

7:23
Meg Rowley: (we’re done after this game)

7:24
Matt: Oh, I thought you meant Carson

7:24
Don Kirshnershaw: Rockies remind me of the 2014 playoff Nats: powerful bats inexplicably enfeebled.

7:25
Meg Rowley: Outside of a few guys, the bats aren’t even that good

7:25
Nick: Obviously I’m biased as a Cubs fan, but is it fair to say the Brewers got super lucky to take the division? They had to have a lot of their off-season acquisitions pan out (including  Yelich turning into an MVP), have some of the best reliever seasons in history, get production out of Wade freaking Miley, win 8 in a row to close out the season (which, I don’t care how good you are, involves a bit of luck, you don’t expect that), and also have the Cubs offense collapse in the final couple weeks. Everything broke perfectly for them.

7:26
Meg Rowley: Super lucky feels too strong to me.

7:26
Meg Rowley: Their BaseRuns record and the Cubs’ were separated by two wins.

7:27
CamdenWarehouse: I think my favorite thing about FanGraphs is how Carson is so equally beloved and the perfect butt of so many jokes

7:27
Meg Rowley: Carson doesn’t embarrass because he is always a little embarrassed.

7:27
Meg Rowley: People who aren’t overly self serious are my favorite sorts, so it is no surprise Carson is one of my favorite people.

7:27
Meg Rowley: Guys, we have another game to watch, let’s wrap this up.

7:28
Brian CashGod: let’s go Yankees!

7:28
Meg Rowley: (the chat is wrapping up after this game)

7:29
Matt: Honestly, I find I don’t usually pay a whole lot of attention to games when I’m there. I live a few blocks from a park, so maybe that waters it down, but when I’m there in person, it’s for the atmosphere and the environment…not necessarily the game itself.

7:29
Meg Rowley: If your goal is to track the game, I think that is easier from home, yes.

7:29
Meg Rowley: I would say the vibe in the postseason is amazing but I don’t know.

7:29
Brian CashGod: wait wrapping up before or after the Yankees / Red Sox?

7:30
Meg Rowley: Before– folks are busy tonight

7:30
Meg Rowley: We’ll do a chat for one of those games, I am sure.

7:30
Meg Rowley: But Friday nights can be tricky.

7:32
CamdenWarehouse: FG writers have personal lives? Bill Plaschke would have me believe they all lived in the parents’ basements

7:32
Meg Rowley: We at least have hours when we don’t work, or when we need to write, which is hard to do on nights when you chat.

7:32
Michael Scarn: Does anyone know exactly how healthy Sale is?

7:33
Meg Rowley: His doctor.

7:33
Meg Rowley: Presumably he does.

7:33
Brandon M: Aguilar looks like a young Nelson Cruz

7:34
Meg Rowley: I think he looks kinda like Yo in the face

7:34
Muxosk: 95 to start the night is a good sign for Sale

7:34
Meg Rowley: (we will continue until the Brewers game ends) (so here is a Sale update)

7:34
Craig Edwards: Meg-I saw a Brewers Segura jersey in the crowd today.

7:34
Meg Rowley: awwwwwwwwww

7:37
Craig: Sale himself may know whether or not hiself is healthy (err, not to be confused with his elf)

7:38
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Safe to change the game now?

7:38
Meg Rowley: it is weirdly tense in the other one but I’m a few pitches behind so maybe it isn’t

7:39
Tyler: Sale throwing darts

7:40
Craig: There is a big difference beteen throwing darts  at 95mph and baseballs

7:40
Craig Edwards: Rockies were at 7% win probability heading to 9th yesterday. Less now, but if they got out of it, Jeffress getting a second inning could be dicey. I wouldn’t switch yet.

7:40
Meg Rowley: Another pitching change in that game because yup.

7:41
Ginny: Do you think we’ve got a good chance of more Red Sox-Yankees matchups in the postseason in coming years? Yanks seem extremely well-positioned for the future, less certain about Red Sox, even with Mookie

7:41
Meg Rowley: Both teams are very good. Both teams are positioned to be good.

7:42
Meg Rowley: I think you’re discounting the rest of the talent on that team too much.

7:42
Meg Rowley: And they can spend.

7:42
Meg Rowley: Poor Rays.

7:44
Tyler: 3 k’s

7:44
Wireless Joe Jackson: Poor everyone, Meg.  The coverage of those teams is insufferable.

7:45
Meg Rowley: I hope that we help to balance out some of the more amped up coverage, though I hope that is true for every team.

7:45
Meg Rowley:

Chris Sale’s fastball velocity in the first inning: 96, 94, 93, 95, 95, 96, 95, 95, 96, 97.

He’s good.

5 Oct 2018
7:46
Craig Edwards: Junior Guerra up in pen. Broxton in on deck circle.

7:47
Guest: Not 99 tho

7:47
Meg Rowley: Appreciate the Sale you have, imo.

7:47
Disco is Dead: Meg what happens if this game goes like 24 innings and they postpone it for something like rain?  Are you in jail here until “it ends”?

7:47
Meg Rowley: No. We have been told we can cut things off whenever we need but a game end makes sense as a stopping point so.

7:48
Craig Edwards: they are letting Jeffress hit after taking 4-0 lead.

7:48
Meg Rowley: oh my

7:51
Tyler: How good Sale is going to be wont be able to tell till velo in the 4th or 5th

7:51
Meg Rowley: Ultimately no, but it is good to see he’s not sitting 91 in the first

7:51
OLC729: Andújar wtf he just belly flopped on a reachable grounder

7:51
Meg Rowley: There’s some room to improve on defense.

7:52
CamdenWarehouse: citing pitcher/batter head to head numbers, yay!

7:52
Meg Rowley: Give us nerdcast back, please.

7:53
Meg Rowley: That’s unfair. There are a lot of good broadcasts that aren’t that nerdy, but the national playoff broadcasts are very poor.

7:53
Meg Rowley: at least in this round

7:53
Meghward: What do you mean?  ARod and Jessica Mendoza not cutting it for ya?

7:54
Meg Rowley: lol he’s so good

7:54
Meg Rowley: I like Mendoza a lot. ARod is better in studio than in the booth. Vasgersian is not my favorite.

7:54
Hank: Was i not paying attention or did JD Martinez fly around those bases

7:55
Meg Rowley: Feet never touched the ground.

7:55
Meg Rowley: Jeffress trying to make me chat this whole Yankees/Red Sox game.

7:56
Craig Edwards: The Brewers do have five mound visits left.

7:57
Meghward: Any thoughts on AL ROY?

7:57
Meg Rowley: If I had a vote, I’d vote for Ohtani.

8:00
Disco is Dead: If I had $1 for every time a walk preceeded a HR, I would have a hammock full of dollars

8:00
Craig Edwards: Fun chat as others did all the heavy lifting. I’m going to bow out perhaps a tiny bit early.

8:00
Meg Rowley: How dare you? (No worries)

8:02
Meg Rowley: Alright folks, thanks for hanging out. Enjoy the evening games, don’t be too mean to the various Boston or New York fans you meet, and have a good weekend!





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Spahn_and_Sain
Member
Spahn_and_Sain

“is it fair to say the Brewers got super lucky to take the division? …Everything broke perfectly for them”

Everything, that is, except the things that didn’t — Nelson was expected to be back and missed the whole year; Suter is out for Tommy John; Miley started the season on the 60-day DL; Zach Davies spent 3 months out; Albers was showing potential but has since dropped to -1.6WAR; Kneel spent a month+ on the DL; Thames didn’t show up for the second half of the season; Santana and Arcia’s production was so bad they spent significant time down in the minors; same with Sogard before he was released; same story Brad Miller; Schoop hasn’t found any kind of offense; Saladino between so-so and poor; Nate Orf and Nick Franklin and Jett Bandy came and went; Vogt has been out the whole season and may not play ever again, then Nottingham got injured.
We played Braun, Kratz, and Pina at first, Shaw at second for lack of better options.
Some trades and prospects broke out, a lot more just broke.

Was it partly luck to win 8 in a row to close out the season? Sure, but if “everything” had broke their way, they wouldn’t have actually needed to do it in the first place.