Dodgers Grab Zach Britton Lite in Three-Team Deal
While everyone waits for the thaw of the free-agent market, the Dodgers, Royals, and White Sox got together on a three-team trade Thursday evening.
The L.A. Times‘ Andy McCullough broke the news on the deal, as part of which the Royals send lefty reliever Scott Alexander to the Dodgers for prospects Erick Mejia and Trevor Oaks. The Dodgers ship lefty reliever Luis Avilan and $3 million to the White Sox. The Royals are also reportedly moving Joakim Soria and $1 million to the White Sox in something of a salary dump.
Sources: The Dodgers are close to finalizing a three-team trade that would bring LHP Scott Alexander to LA, send RHP Trevor Oaks to KC and send LHP Luis Avilan to White Sox.
— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) January 4, 2018
The final accounting of this three-team trade: Royals sending Scott Alexander to the Dodgers and Joakim Soria to the White Sox; they're receiving right-hander Trevor Oaks and infielder Erick Mejia from Dodgers.
— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) January 5, 2018
While there are quite a few moving parts, the focus within this post will be on Alexander, an interesting arm who could fill a need — and fill it cheaply — for one of the top clubs in baseball. Lefty reliever Tony Watson is a free agent, and the Dodgers are attempting to stay under the luxury tax. In giving up prospects and cash, the Dodgers must also feel Alexander is an upgrade over Avilan, who is projected to make $2.3 million in arbitration according to MLB Trade Rumors.
Alexander, a pre-arbitration arm with five years of control remaining, might not only fill a need cheaply for the next couple of seasons but also exceptionally well. While, on the one hand, the Dodgers are trading a lefty who misses bats, they’re also adding a lefty who might have more upside in today’s offensive environment.
In a year marked by fly balls, home runs, launch angles, and juiced balls, Alexander was, by some measures, the top ground-ball arm in the game in 2017. The approach led him to a 2.48 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and 56 ERA- last season over 69 innings. He emerged, quietly, as one of the better relievers in the game.
Among pitchers who threw at last 20 innings last year, Alexander led baseball in ground-ball rate (73.6%). He was one of only three pitchers to post a mark of 70% or greater, joining Marc Rzepczynski (70.0%) and Zach Britton (72.8%) in that small club. And it is Britton who could become a frequent comp for Alexander, thanks to latter’s darting sinker and handedness.
Not only are Britton and Alexander left-handed arms who finished Nos. 1 and 2 in ground-ball rate last season among all pitchers, they also placed first and second in reliance upon sinkers. Britton threw the pitch 95.1% of the time; Alexander, 91.9%. The next most frequent usage was recorded by Brandon Kintzler (74.4%).
The 28-year-old Alexander has been a ground-ball pitcher since he reached High-A in 2013. And by last season, his two-seamer had developed into one of the best pitches in baseball.
His emergence is due, in no small part, to added velocity: Alexander’s sinker jumped 3 mph between 2016 and -17, from 90.7 to 93.2 mph. According to Baseball Prospectus’s PITCHf/x leaderboards, the pitch ranked fifth in baseball among all sinkers (minimum 200 thrown) in swing-and-miss rate (28.1%) and 21st in GB/FB ratio (8.1).
He leaned on the pitch — and kept leaning on it — because it worked.
Batters vs Scott Alexander had an average launch angle of -4.6 degrees in 2017. 2nd lowest of any pitchers with 150 BIP. #GroundballMachine pic.twitter.com/AsLauke34q
— Daren Willman (@darenw) January 5, 2018
Perhaps one criteria for the excellence of a pitch is if the opposition expects it and yet fails to hit it anyway.
Scott Alexander's pitch chart from last year is pretty monochromatic. Not exactly a man of mystery … but it worked. pic.twitter.com/O3Xy8ywjnE
— Andrew Simon (@AndrewSimonMLB) January 5, 2018
The following represents video evidence of the sinker’s darting effectiveness, a sequence from last season against Corey Seager:
And against Mikie Mahtook:
Both last season and also over the course of his brief career, Alexander has been more effective against righties, allowing wOBAs of .292 and .314, respectively, versus right- and left-handed batters. He is not doomed to situational status.
The deal makes sense for the Dodgers: they add to their bullpen but do so without endangering their luxury-tax status. At the moment, the Dodgers have a projected $184 million payroll in 2018. The tax threshold, meanwhile, stands at $197 million. The Royals are headed for a rebuild, and it makes sense to trade off relievers even if for marginal prospects while shedding payroll. The White Sox picked up cash and two quality veteran relievers — relievers they can perhaps flip this summer.
It’s not a trade that is going to make major headlines, but it’s something that involves a top contender and an interesting arm. And to give up money and prospects in addition to Avilan, maybe the Dodgers believe they’ve found something.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
ChiSox infielder Jake Peter also lands in Los Angeles.
He’s interesting but was available to teams in the rule 5 draft. Not a bad flip.
KC couldn’t get more for these arms other than salary relief? Soria wasn’t cheap but still.
Most teams evidently see the rule 5 draft as little more than a nuisance. It’s weird. But obviously, the roster restriction does play a role and now the Dodgers won’t have to worry about that with Peter.
This also looks like a deal that the Dodgers are using to set up their next move.
I agree that the move suggests a further move. The way the front office has been shedding rotation arms tells me they plan to trade for a starter. I expect they will try to package Verdugo and other prospects to get another proven starter.
Another reason the Dodgers like pitchers with this profile is that they have options remaining, meaning they can be moved back and forth between the majors and minors with few restrictions and won’t be subject to waivers. Since the Dodgers have made a science of limiting the innings of their non-Kershaw starters, they need to constantly shuffle fresh pitchers on and off the roster – witness Josh Fields last season. But this year I think Fields is out of options….and probably out of LA.
I agree that Alexander gives them more flexibility than Avilan, but they also traded Oaks, a big-league ready arm who had three options years remaining and could have pitched out of the pen.
Trevor Oaks is really not a bad prospect .. he’d have been in the majors by now in most farm systems, but is deeply buried in depth-land with the Dodgers, and they finally had to put him on the 40 man to avoid the Rule 5. It makes sense to move him now before his value starts to decline because he’s burning time on the 40 man without even being in MLB.
This is the first thing I thought when I saw it. Trevor Oaks has a decent chance of being a solid back-end starter. We’ve seen how expensive it is to trade for any sort of controllable starting pitching, and to get him for Alexander is a pretty good move for the Royals (they also had to give up Soria, but he was expensive and they also got Mejia back).
Mejia is basically a non-prospect.
Second 3 team trade involving the Dodgers and White Sox in the Friedman Hahn era
Second fleecing by the Sox
lol how?
Very very lite
Kind of an odd trade for the Dodgers. Over the last 2yrs:
IP-K/9-BB/9-GB%-xFIP-ERA -2018 projected ERA
Avilan 65-11.0-4.4-53%-3.27-3.02 -3.53
Alexander 88-7.7-3.6-72%-3.33-2.66 -3.58
So they are very similar lefty relievers. The Dodgers essentially already had this lefty in their bullpen for next year. The Dodgers do get Alexander for 5yrs but to do so they gave up 6yrs of Oaks, $2M to the White Sox, and downgraded a MI prospect. Oaks seems like the classic under rated SP prospect – low K, low BB sinker/change guy who has above average command. Steamer and ZIPS both already project him for a flat 4.0 ERA next year. Oaks seems like they type of guy who could easily be worth 2 WAR/yr for the next 6yrs. The Dodgers must really be bullish on Alexander to do this deal.
Except the Dodgers like to use and abuse the 10 day disabled list for all non-Kershaw starters. That means shuttling starters and relievers between AAA and the 10-Day DL when they want to give them rest. Alexander has multiple option years left while Avilan has none so he fits into the plan.
Additionally, Avilan wasn’t that good last year as evidenced by his 1.39 WHIP which is horrible for a reliever. It’s also why the Dodgers decided to trade for Watson AND Cingrani at the deadline.
Then should the Dodgers be concerned that Alexander’s WHIP was 1.304 last year? Not much different in that dep’t
steelehere – if Alexander is as great as he’s being billed, why on earth would the Dodgers want to shuttle him down to AAA? Also, the Dodgers preference to abuse the 10 day DL for starters would be a reason to hold onto Oaks (not trade him).
If you think Alvilan’s 1.39 WHIP last year is horrible, was Alexander’s 1.30 WHIP that much better? I think Oaks is being under sold. Tyler Chatwood just got 3/$38 and is projected for a 4.05 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Oaks is projected for a 3.99 ERA and 1.29 WHIP
The Dodgers have nine other starting pitchers so Oaks was expendable. They need relievers that have options because the like to work their non-Jansen relievers multiple innings when Kershaw doesn’t start because their starters don’t pitch well the third time through the order.
If you check the Dodgers 2017 transactions, you’ll see a lot of their relievers (especially their non-high leverage ones) were shuttled up and down between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles after pitching multiple innings during short starts by their starters. At the same time their non-Kershaw starters were moved on and off the 10 day DL to give them rest.
As for pitching comparisons, the Dodgers like Alexander’s ground ball rate and roster flexibility more than a non-high leverage reliever like Avilan and a starting pitcher way down on the depth chart.
There were a lot of rumors of the Dodgers being interested in Zach Britton last year but not wanting to give away to much to get him so trading for Zach Britton-lite is akin to the Dodgers trading for Logan Forsythe instead of Brian Dozier in 2017 because the Dodgers front office felt they were similar players.
Comparing Oaks to Chatwood doesn’t work based on comparing projections alone. The Cubs very likely signed him because they placed an emphasis on his road splits last year (3.49 ERA and 1.228 WHIP) instead of just his projections for 2018 alone.
Wouldn’t Chatwood’s home road splits already be baked into his projection?
Steele-Lets talk about WHIP and Cigrani’s career (1.34) Koehler’s career (1.39) Henry Owens’ career (1.54) Watson’s 2017 (1.38) so what you said is negated by your own argument. Like most people (authors) on this site you just wrote a few sentences with 0 correlation.
Alexander is an easy upgrade over Avilan. Better ERA+ , WHIP and BB/9. Oaks was buried in the depth chart as well. And Alexander was a 2 WAR player last season
5 years vs Avilan getting expensive and having been hurt isn’t a bad tradeoff.
I liked Oaks but he’s in the Wilmer Font category of interesting pitchers who are only ever gonna pitch in LA if something really bad happens due to their absurd SP depth. And they already have 3 of that guy on the 40 man in Stripling, Font and Brock Stewart. Oaks had to be added to the 40 to avoid the Rule 5 this year so he was about to start depreciating if they didn’t either put him in the rotation (where he’s like 9th or 10th in the org) or flip him while his team control is maxed out.
I don’t see Oaks being that useful given he wasn’t given much of a shot during the whole musical chairs of pitchers last year for the Dodgers. Stripling and Stewart were evidently a clear step above him and even Wilmer Font got called up to get a look before Oaks. That said, the Royals will definitely be able to let Oak pitch as much as he wants, during their rebuild, to see if they landed a serviceable #4/5 (or who knows, better). SPs with low K/9 aren’t really ones to bet on for success…
I believe Oaks was hurt at the end of the year when he would have been called up. Not saying your overall point is wrong, but the fact that Font was called up and Oaks wasn’t may have been reflected, at least in part, who was health in September.
I’m with Okra here. The Dodgers definitely paid a lot to upgrade from Avilan to Alexander, especially since reliever performance is so volatile. To do so, they gave up Oaks (who looks like a decent back-end starter for next year) and $2 million, so it’s not saving them money.
That doesn’t mean it is a “bad” deal for the Dodgers since it does make their team better for now and they might not miss Oaks (as mikejunt notes). But I think the Royals and White Sox are much more likely to feel like they “won” this deal, since the White Sox get another relief arm they could flip at the deadline and the Royals get a good #4/#5 starter.
I usually agree with you but five years of control as against one is a very compelling reason to make this move. In today’s baseball the money involved is pocket change.
Normally, the Dodgers wouldn’t even notice $2 million if it went missing from the lockbox, but since they’re trying to reset it matters this year.
The $2m kept everything salary neutral: Avilan got $2.3m in arbitration.
The Dodgers kept their books even with the trade.
Yes and no. In 2018, you are correct. In 2019 when Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Clayton Kershaw are free agents, the Dodgers now have around $2.0m more to play with.
I think the Dodgers also likely see something in Jake Peter.
I wondered if this meant they would deal Kike or Forsythe
That’s reading way too hard into Peter’s inclusion. Dude has no track record in the majors. We can ease off the idea that somehow the Dodgers are going to deal either versatile and contributing player.
I agree that it’s unlikely they see Peter has having much of a role in 2018, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were thinking he might be an interesting platoon piece down the road. Lefty hitting infielders aren’t everywhere you look.
Probably the biggest difference between Alexander and Britton is that, so far in his career, Alexander has exhibited reverse platoon splits (SSS).
Alright, I know this is going to come off as arrogant, but Travis I do like how your two videos of Alexander’s sinker are the same two videos as in my article about Alexander’s sinker from back in September.
https://www.royalsreview.com/2017/9/21/16339674/the-underrated-part-of-scott-alexanders-sinker
Good piece though, Alexander is a nice, cheap pickup for the Dodgers.
Wow.
I missed the word “lite” in the title, and was pretty pissed off at the article.
Right now, it’s better they got the “lite” version than the original…
has merriam-webster gotten around to adding “lite” to the dictionary yet? someone please point me to the angry threads on the prescriptivist messageboards if so. i tried googling “lite angry” but it just took me to a bunch of fan reviews of the new star wars movie for some reason
Improved shifting in recent years adds some value for elite ground ball-inducers; teams are trying to hit the ball in the air and he’s one of the best at making them do the very opposite, so great trade for the Dodgers.
Sox are making a smart gamble on Soria; they can move him at the deadline when he will cost 3M rather than 9M, which will increase his number of suitors significantly. They’ll probably ship him to the Dodgers in August just so the GM’s can share winks and clinks at a bar, and pretend they rule the MLB universe.
Royals sold super early on a cost-controlled lefty with an elite power sinker and probably could have cleared Soria’s salary without moving a valuable part if they waited out the offseason a little longer, but if Oaks is a viable back-end starter for them, they will be happy.
Shauncore,
Thanks for the link to your Alexander article. Nice piece of research. Too bad there is so many ads in the piece.
Vox has bills to pay
…….
Will the White Sox have many leads to give to their relievers in 2018?
This piece could have been titled “White Sox pick up another reliever to flip at deadline in 2018.” It might not pan out, but Hahn is really good at this game.
Make that “White Sox pick up TWO relievers to flip at the deadline”..
It seems the White Sox picked up two relievers to flip at the deadline AND got cash back for a minor league utility infielder who can’t run, isn’t a great defender, and never had any power till last year.
That’s pretty amazing.
I know! The White Sox did very well here. Not saying that Soria and Avilan are both going to be flippable but there’s a pretty good chance one or both will be, and they got it for a guy they didn’t even protect in the Rule 5 draft.
The White Sox are setting themselves up to capitalize on the relievers together, like they and the A’s did last year, you can BuildABullpen by calling CWS when yours turns out to suck. Those trades were really good for the teams in question, and the relievers were arguably more valuable as a package than individually because they were so appealing to teams with extreme needs (See: Nats Bullpen)
“White sox following the Padres formula” more like it
Also, the deeper the bullpen, the easier it will be for Renteria to have a quick hook with all the young starters, keeping their pitch counts and innings down. As much as he knows that his team is in a deep rebuild, he still is going to have a bias towards managing each game to win. Especially if the payoff is having a better chance to manage the White Sox after they’ve turned things around.
very jelly
-yankees
Can anyone explain why his steamer projected ERA has dropped from 3.6 to 3.1 overnight? That can’t be simply park factor and defense, can it? IIRC his projected HR/9 did not change significantly (~0.60), neither did K%, BB%, or BABIP.
Dodgers had MLB’s best team defense last year, so ..
AL to NL?
Ok is nobody else going to talk about the bird that Mikie Mahtook hit during that swing?
You mean they gave up Criag Kimbrel Lite to do it! Plus Value? NOOOOOO
“an interesting arm who could fill a need — and fill it cheaply”
So they are broke as shit, like I said over a month ago