Dodgers to Pair Unhittable Closer With Unhittable Closer

It’s different when you’re an executive for a smaller-budget organization. It’s not bad, and it might even be fun, but the circumstances force you to be a little more imaginative. You don’t ever really get to splurge, not unless you get lucky. More often, you have to be creative — you have to try to see things where other people don’t. You’re forever hunting for bargains, looking for upside where others might see downside. So much is about accepting flaws and reclamation projects. It can be a rewarding challenge, but only the challenge part is certain.

It’s simpler when you have resources. There’s a lot more pressure, as there are higher expectations, but when you have resources, you don’t always need to overthink. When you have resources, like the Dodgers, you can determine that you have a weakness in the bullpen, and you can just go get Aroldis Chapman to try to fix it. The Dodgers looked somewhat thin behind Kenley Jansen, who’s one of the best relievers in baseball. So word is they’re on the verge of picking up another one of the best relievers in baseball.

As far as I know, this isn’t official yet. All I’ve seen is that the Dodgers aren’t giving up any of their top three prospects, which makes sense. The return for Cincinnati is unknown, and Chapman would also still need to pass a physical. Those tend to be formalities, but Chapman is a freak and you can’t be sure. He’s missed some time with shoulder discomfort in 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2015, so…you get it. There are hurdles. Sometimes players don’t clear the hurdles.

But let’s assume Chapman clears the hurdles. Otherwise there’s not much to discuss. The idea here is elegant in its simplicity. Jansen is fantastic. Chapman is fantastic. The Dodgers want to have more players who are fantastic, so why not just go and have them both? In the known history of relievers with at least 200 career innings, Chapman ranks third in lowest OPS allowed. Jansen ranks fourth. The only names ahead of them are Craig Kimbrel and Wade Davis. It’s an obvious pairing, and the Dodgers didn’t need to think beyond that.

As a different way to understand the absurdity, 223 pitchers threw at least 50 innings in each of the last two seasons. Chapman just had the second-biggest decline in strikeout rate. Despite that, he still finished with baseball’s highest strikeout rate. Chapman lost a fifth of his strikeouts, and he remained the best at strikeouts. Jansen, meanwhile, is one of the closest things we have to Mariano Rivera.

It’s difficult to rank relievers, but it’s possible the Dodgers (almost) have two of the three best in the game. Which means they almost certainly would have the best 1-2 punch in the later innings. You don’t want to go too far with that because it’s not like the Dodgers are doing something unprecedented. The Yankees have Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances. The Orioles have Zach Britton and Darren O’Day. The Royals have Wade Davis and Joakim Soria — and Kelvin Herrera. The Dodgers wouldn’t be the first team to have this sort of construction. They’d just have the most luxurious model. It’s a good way to rebound from losing Zack Greinke to an unexpected rival. Chapman’s a star, with a high degree of on-field sex appeal.

The last time we saw the Dodgers, their bullpen was problematic. Last year, they actually finished with the second-best strikeout rate in baseball, and they were first in K-BB%. However, they ranked 26th in overall bullpen WPA, even though Jansen, individually, ranked 18th among all relievers. It was the non-Jansen relievers who got the Dodgers in trouble, and it’s those trouble spots the Dodgers are trying to erase. Already, they were likely to improve, with Chris Hatcher emerging, and with Yimi Garcia being better than he showed. But there was no bigger easy upgrade than Chapman, and while projections are just projections, the Dodgers and Yankees are now tied for the highest projected bullpen WAR, almost two wins ahead of third place. It would be surprising for this to fail, in other words.

It’s possible that what makes this interesting isn’t Chapman himself. I mean, he’s terrific, and everybody understands that, but that’s just the thing — everybody understands that. It isn’t hard to see why it could be a good idea to pair Aroldis Chapman with Kenley Jansen. But there’s a lot of interest in the dynamics here. Chapman’s a really great closer. Jansen’s a really great closer. Someone’s going to not be a closer, and both players are due to hit free agency after next year.

After what the Nationals experienced with Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon, fans are hyper-aware of how moves like this could make a player upset. And Ken Rosenthal already tweeted about how Jansen could be rather displeased. Someone’s going to be in line for a perceived demotion, and that someone is Jansen, almost certainly. This is the intangible risk to the move, beyond the ordinary risk of adding a pitcher who throws 102 miles per hour. The Dodgers are banking on Jansen’s fastball working just as well in the eighth, now that they missed out on O’Day and Ryan Madson. His mood could make things complicated.

And there’s no predicting that, for sure. I don’t know how Jansen’s going to respond. It’s unlikely the Dodgers turn around and flip one of these arms — they’re trying to build a winner with them. It’s worth acknowledging a critical difference: the Nationals added Papelbon in July. They were right in the thick of things. The Dodgers are adding Chapman in December, months before any sort of game action. There’s a lot of time for things to sink in, or be smoothed over. Jansen doesn’t have to go into a clubhouse tomorrow and be confronted by this stranger who’s taking his job. He has a while to prepare.

And as easy as it is to talk about how not collecting saves could cost Jansen free-agent money, let’s be real. He’s obviously great. He’s obviously closed before. Teams aren’t going to forget that. They’re not going to think he’s forgotten how to close games over the course of a few months. Andrew Miller got paid very well despite never having been a closer. Darren O’Day is getting paid very well despite never having been a closer. Jansen has been a closer, and next September he turns just 29 years old. Even if Chapman stays healthy and effective all year, and Jansen almost never throws the ninth, he’ll get paid like he can handle the ninth, because he can. This shouldn’t cost him meaningful money.

Maybe that’s what the Dodgers will say to him. Maybe, instead, they’ll try to split saves up between the two pitchers. I don’t know — lots to work out. Jansen might be convinced by the money argument, or he might just end up happy to share the bullpen with another elite player as the team guns for a championship. I’m not in Jansen’s head. I just know how you feel about things immediately tends to be reduced in intensity over time. Jansen might never be happy about this, but if he’s sufficiently content to throw more wicked cutters, that’s what the Dodgers really care about.

It’s a move that might upset clubhouse dynamics, and that’s not something new to this front office. It’s also just not something new to the Dodgers, but this’ll be a task for rookie manager Dave Roberts. The situation he’ll inherit will be difficult, with its assortment of egos. It’s also going to be immensely talented. That’s what the front office will bet on. It’s not a bad bet, as bets go.