Don’t Anchor Tiny Tim

Last year, Matthew Carruth discussed the idea of anchoring, a process in which fans build their opinions of a player’s season around a good or bad stretch at one of the season’s bookends. It takes extreme contradictory performance, like that of CC Sabathia following his abominable first month to shift these opinions. Otherwise, inaccurate claims are bound to be made and the wrong perceptions of a player’s value and quality will persist. This season, anchoring has occurred for many with regards to Tim Lincecum.

For those wondering why analysts tend to place small sample size disclaimers in their articles, this is the underlying reason. Some people just cannot look at two starts or 15 plate appearances and understand that a change in skill or approach is not inherent. Sure, this possibility always exists but it could just be random given that the pre-requisite playing time for stability has not yet been reached.

Lincecum made his first two starts on April 7 and April 12:

4/7: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
4/12: 5.1 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

All told, his 8.1 innings, 14 hits, 7 earned runs, 6 walks and 10 strikeouts did not exactly do its best to instill confidence. Then again, it was just two starts and thanks to Sabathia’s dreadful start in 2008 + insane dominance from May to September, we now have the perfect response when people get ahead of themselves. Lincecum had two bad starts, like, omg! Hey, Sabathia 08. End of discussion right there.

Around that point, articles surfaced about Lincecum’s release point (which was fine, a maximum of an inch, inch and a half off from last season, which is not significant, and more along the lines of normal home/road discrepancies in the PITCHf/x data), his delivery, and the possibility of injuries. One more bad start and you got the feeling he might get demoted to work on the windup or sent to the DL with a phantom injury.

Since he “figured it out,” Lincecum has tossed 30 innings, surrendered just 20 hits, allowed 6 earned runs, and boasted a K/BB of 40/6. Combine that with his opening starts and his seasonal line now sits at: 6 GS, 38.1 IP, 34 H, 13 ER, 12 BB, 50 K. He has a 3.05 ERA and 1.93 FIP. He has produced +1.7 wins in the early part of this season, tied with Johan Santana and Dan Haren for the throne of top non-Greinke pitcher to date.

Lincecum is fine–sorry, Mariners fans–and he is going to have another stellar season. As Dave noted not too long ago there is always going to be information to be gleaned from small sample sizes, but going nuts over two tremendous or abysmal starts from a pitcher is an ailment worthy of statistical surgery. True talent levels don’t just evaporate or disappear. They might shift or slightly argue with pre-season projections, but to think Lincecum truly had become a somewhat different pitcher or was no longer as dominant as last season based on two starts in early April is absolute lunacy.





Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

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Mike Ketchen
14 years ago

Eric,

I am a little confused. I pointed out to a writer on this very site something seemed off. He looked into it and wrote up the release point was siginificantly off. So, my question is this, have I been looking at the release point data wrong (and was he)? Thanks for the help.