Don’t Forget About Drew Pomeranz

From results to stuff, Drew Pomeranz became Rich Hill’s doppelgänger last season. He even took an unorthodox route, like Hill, to the front of a rotation. The former fifth-overall pick in the draft was traded to the Rockies early in his career, struggled as most young arms do in Colorado, had some moments in Oakland in a mixed relief-and-starting role, and arrived at Padres’ camp last spring competing for a rotation spot.

Hill and Pomeranz share many traits. They’re both left-handed. Both also feature some of the highest average spin-rates on their four-seam fastballs, allowing them to pitch up in the zone due to the perception of rise. Last season, Hill’s fastball averaged 2,456 rpm; Pomeranz’ averaged 2,471 rmp. (The MLB average is about 2,220.) They also have curveballs of dramatic shape and arc as their signature pitches, and they each trust the bending pitch.

Among pitchers who logged at least 100 innings last season, Hill led all major-league pitchers by throwing his curveball at a 42.4% rate. Pomeranz was second with a 39.2% usage rate.

Both received advice on curveball usage. Hill was convinced by Brian Bannister to depart from conventional pitch usage as a member of the Red Sox; Pomeranz, by the Padres’ coaching staff, according to MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell.

The Padres made a point of asking Pomeranz to throw his hook more than he did in three seasons as a starter with Colorado — when he used the pitch less than 17 percent of the time.

Pomeranz increased his curveball usage from 17% in Colorado to 26.8% and 30.6% in Oakland in 2014 and 2015, respectively, while working primarily out of the bullpen. From his 2015 level at Oakland, Pomeranz then increased the pitch’s usage by nearly a third last season at the heeding of the Padres staff.

His hi-lo approach — high fastballs and low curveballs — allowed Pomeranz to break out in the first half of the 2016 season, when he posted a 2.47 ERA and struck out 115. He allowed just 67 hits over 102 innings in San Diego. He earned his first an All-Star invite, too.

Consider Pomeranz’ fastball location in 2016 compared to earlier in his career. Here’s Pomeranz’ four-seam location versus right-handed hitters in 2016 (from pitcher’s viewpoint)…

And his four-seam location versus right-handed hitters in 2011-13…

It seems that, with San Diego, Pomeranz was learning how to pitch to his skills and against traditional practices, the latter of which typically dictates that a pitcher should establish fastballs down in the zone. It took a while to arrive at this place — he traversed a winding path — but that was also true of Hill. Perhaps it had taken so long to be comfortable pitching up in the zone, and throwing such an extremely high amount of curveballs, because it was so unconventional.

One difference between Hill and Pomeranz is that the latter’s curveball is more often located down in the zone, while Hill elevates his curveball more than any other pitcher.

Consider, by way of example, Pomeranz’ curveball location versus right-handed hitters in 2016:

And Hill’s curveball location versus right-handed hitters in 2016:

Boston, where Hill had rebuilt himself and flourished at the close of 2015, was so taken by Pomeranz’s first half that they traded a consensus top-50 prospect in Anderson Espinoza to San Diego for his two and a half years of remaining club control. Moreover, Boston turned down a chance to reverse the deal after it became known that the Padres withheld medical information.

But Pomeranz struggled in Boston. He allowed more hits (72) hits than (68.2) innings pitched. He posted a 4.59 ERA in the American League. Combine his lackluster second half and the injury issues that interfered with his spring — he opened the season on the DL — and some of the excitement and enthusiasm surrounding Pomeranz’ first half in 2016 had eroded.

But perhaps that enthusiasm will be growing again after his first start of the season on Tuesday.

Against the Orioles, Pomeranz threw six shutout innings at Fenway Park. He showed excellent command of his fastball, his knuckle curve was biting, and he looked healthy as his fastball touched 95 mph early, though he pitched with lesser velocity later in his starter.

He continued to look something like a version of Hill.

Consider the three swings and misses he produced in a first-inning strikeout of Mark Trumbo.

Fastball up…

Curveball down…

Fastball up…

It was a recipe that had Pomeranz pitching like a top-of-the-rotation arm with the Padres, and even as he continued to demonstrate encouraging underlying skills with the Red Sox in the second half.

While Pomeranz allowed more hits in the AL in the second half last year, he continued to miss bats, striking out 24.3% of batters he faced, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved from 2.8 in the NL in the first half to 3.0 with Boston. So perhaps Pomeranz was simply a bit unlucky with balls in play. Perhaps there is still plenty of reason to think he can be an impact starting pitcher. On Tuesday night, it certainly looked like he could be an arm who can fit comfortably in the middle or nearer the top of a rotation.

And with David Price on the DL and his left UCL a subject of great concern all spring, with the Red Sox thin in regard to pitching depth, Pomeranz might need to perform like a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher like he was with the Padres. So don’t forget about Drew Pomeranz. The Red Sox might really need him to be like the Rich Hill they lost.