Don’t Sleep on the Yankees
The New York Yankees are supposedly rebuilding — and, in a sense, it’s true. They didn’t make the playoffs last season, and they haven’t seen the American League Division Series since 2012. They started the winter by trading the guy who had been their starting catcher for the past three seasons. Those are all some traits that might be representative of a team in transition.
On the other hand, they haven’t dropped below .500 in forever. You have to go back to 1992 to find the last time the Yankees failed to break even. They’ve never been the bad team that one now commonly associates with a tear-down effort. Also, they’ve spent some money in free agency this offseason, on Aroldis Chapman and Matt Holliday. These aren’t the types of players/deals — closers, short-term deals for aging superstar — that teams who are far from contention typically sign/make.
So who are the Yankees? If you had to pick between pretender and contender, you’d have to land on the latter. Let’s take a look at the potential starting lineup. As always, the venerable Mike Axisa has done much of the legwork for us. In his recent piece on how the Yankees may split Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury in the lineup, here was his best guess as to how the Yankees’ lineup will shake out this season.
- LF Brett Gardner
- 2B Starlin Castro
- C Gary Sanchez
- DH Matt Holliday
- SS Didi Gregorius
- CF Jacoby Ellsbury
- 1B Gregory Bird
- RF Aaron Judge
- 3B Chase Headley
Not bad, right? Let’s take a look at the projected wOBAs for all of the AL teams, according to our current depth charts.
| Team | wOBA |
|---|---|
| Red Sox | 0.333 |
| Astros | 0.329 |
| Indians | 0.328 |
| Rangers | 0.327 |
| Tigers | 0.325 |
| Orioles | 0.324 |
| Yankees | 0.322 |
| Blue Jays | 0.320 |
| Twins | 0.319 |
| Angels | 0.318 |
| Mariners | 0.317 |
| Athletics | 0.313 |
| Royals | 0.312 |
| Rays | 0.310 |
| White Sox | 0.309 |
The Yankees are in the middle of the pack, but there are a few caveats here. First, the projections may be conservative on Bird and Sanchez, which is understandable in both cases. Certainly, we shouldn’t expect Sanchez to repeat his blistering .425 wOBA from last season, but the .348 wOBA for which he’s pegged for seems like it could be a little conservative. The early returns from our FANS projections seem to agree, pegging him for a .355 wOBA.
Bird’s projection might be even more conservative. Given that he just missed a full season, we have him pegged for just 350 plate appearances. If he’s right, though, he’ll garner far more playing time than that. In addition, if he can round back to his previous form, he should top his .354 wOBA projection, as it would easily be his lowest wOBA at any level as a professional. For context, here are Bird’s wOBA figures from every regular-season stop at which he posted at least 100 plate appearances: .429, .373, .411, .367, .387 and .372. The last, the .372, was his production in 2015 as a member of the Yankees, when he hit 11 homers in 46 games, with a .261/.343/.529 slash line.
There’s also the matter of what isn’t showing up in that Yankees’ projected wOBA. Whether it’s Clint Frazier and Gleyber Torres potentially forcing their way onto the 25-man roster or a midseason trade involving one of the club’s prospects to acquire an elite major leaguer, there’s a decent chance that there’s at least one good hitter who’ll contribute to the Yankees in 2017 but isn’t currently listed on the depth chart. The Yankees have resources, in one way or another, that other teams don’t.
On the pitching side, things look similarly appealing.
| Team | FIP |
|---|---|
| Indians | 3.71 |
| Red Sox | 3.76 |
| Astros | 3.86 |
| Mariners | 3.99 |
| Angels | 4.02 |
| Rays | 4.04 |
| Yankees | 4.06 |
| Athletics | 4.07 |
| Blue Jays | 4.14 |
| Tigers | 4.15 |
| Royals | 4.17 |
| Rangers | 4.18 |
| Twins | 4.36 |
| White Sox | 4.37 |
| Orioles | 4.39 |
Not bad. But again, this may be underrating the Yankees a little bit. Let’s add in three more columns.
| Team | FIP | WAR | 3+ WAR SP | 1.5+ WAR RP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | 3.71 | 22.6 | 3 | 1 |
| Red Sox | 3.76 | 21.8 | 3 | 1 |
| Yankees | 4.06 | 20.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Astros | 3.86 | 19.4 | 2 | 0 |
| Mariners | 3.99 | 17.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tigers | 4.15 | 16.6 | 1 | 0 |
| Blue Jays | 4.14 | 16.4 | 1 | 0 |
| Rangers | 4.18 | 15.4 | 2 | 0 |
| Rays | 4.04 | 15.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Angels | 4.02 | 14.7 | 1 | 0 |
| Royals | 4.17 | 14.7 | 1 | 0 |
| Athletics | 4.07 | 14.5 | 1 | 0 |
| White Sox | 4.37 | 14.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Orioles | 4.39 | 14.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Twins | 4.36 | 11.9 | 0 | 0 |
The disparity between New York’s FIP and WAR ranking tells me that the Yankees’ best pitchers are the ones slated to pitch the most innings. And we can see that the top of the Yankees’ pitching staff matches up favorably to the rest of the American League in at least one respect — the number of good pitchers. Setting the bar at 3.0 WAR and 1.5 WAR, respectively, we find that the Yankees are the only team who feature multiple starters and relievers who clear both thresholds. Now, there’s obviously something a bit arbitrary about considering the pitching this way — and it doesn’t account for depth, either. Nevertheless, looking at the staff in this manner reveals how dangerous the Yankees could be in a short series.
And similar to the position-player section of their depth chart, the team has prospects omitted from the club’s “first team” who could force a promotion in the near future. Chief among them is Justus Sheffield, who graduated to Double-A in September. And one pitcher who is on the depth chart — Ben Heller — could really be a sleeper. Last year, the righty struck out 25% of the hitters he faced at Triple-A and is capable of producing 100-mph heat. Certainly, 100-mph fastballs are more ubiquitous than they used to be, but having three guys who can fire them in one bullpen is a tantalizing proposition.
Obviously, the future isn’t yet written. Gary Sanchez could experience a Brett Lawrie-like sophomore slump. Veterans Jacoby Ellsbury, Chase Headley and CC Sabathia could see their performance degrade even further. The back of the rotation could be unsettled all season. But these are the kinds of problems teams want to have, and given the Yankees’ prospect cache and still considerable financial resources, they’ll be in position to cure any of their ills come midseason. Don’t sleep on the Yankees.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
compelling case, but zzzzzzz
The problem with only using FIP is it doesn’t account for Pineda’s pinhead pitching with 2 strikes and 2 outs.
You mean batters shouldn’t expect a slider down and away?
Who are you calling pinhead?
The big thing that jumps out at me is that the starting pitching seems to have huge error bars on performance and playing time. Pineda may have a great FIP, but he has significantly and consistently underperformed it. Luis Severino had a great debut in 2015 and then bombed last year. Which is the real Severino? Sabathia bounced back somewhat last season, but before 2016, he had 3 straight seasons in which his best ERA was 4.73. Which seems more like a fluke, the sub-4 ERA in 2016 or the high-4, low-5 ERAs of the three preceding years? When will Tanaka’s partially torn UCL give out? And the Green/Mitchell/Cessa/Warren depth starters aren’t exactly top prospects with ace ceilings.
While I agree that the lineup has significant upside, I think the rotation has significant downside. The bullpen might be enough to cover up those weaknesses, but that would make for a heavy workload.
Sabathia also got sober in the offseason, and his improvement can actually be traced back to when he started using his knee brace in the second half of 2015.
I hate how people are using the fact Severino had a tough age 22 season to mean anything. Yes it was less than ideal. But he flew through the Minors. He was going to have a rough transition. It is what happens when you are a young pitcher entering the Show. He still has top of the rotation potential and should not be moved to the pen unless every single opportunity is exhausted.
Also CC is an interesting case. It has taken him a long time to make the transition from hardthrowing lefty to crafty lefty. But last season he finally did. While he will definitely give up the long balls and he is prone to a stinker, I think the underlying factors are in his favor. He left less pitches up in the zone. He threw his fastball 20 percent less last year and ramped up the cutter usage (like peak old man Pettitte). I get the feeling he has a lot left in the tank.
CC was a different pitcher last year than he had been the previous years because he switched to relying on a very effective cutter. His season last year may not be fluke.
Also, there is no reason to think Tanaka has a partially torn UCL. He had a very minor tear a few years ago and he allowed it to heal (and they do heal).
Zzzzzzzz
Yankees fans so easily #TRIGGERED
I don’t know man, I kind of liked it when booj11 did it, but the way you phrased it . . . I think you’re just not funny.
Sorry your safe space has been desanctified, snowflake 🙁
youre like on pace to break the record for most stale reactionary statements per sentence.
Man, you just couldn’t stop yourself. Another minute and you would have cooled off, but you had to be a loser on the Internet yet again. Precious ego can’t take the slightest criticism. Yet you accuse others of being “snowflakes”. Right.
You’re right. Totally not triggered at all.
Does being rude, smug, and insulting make you feel better about yourself?
My comment above was intended for the “Baron,” not JoeyB.
Please take this garbage to espn.
As a Yankee fan, I feel a bit spoiled. Most teams have to fully commit one way or another, but the Yankees have the luxury to be able to “rebuild on the fly.” They certainly don’t look like one of the top teams in the AL at the moment, but I do very much expect them to compete for a wild card and play meaningful baseball into September this year (and next). If things somehow break right and they are in a good position at midseason, they have resources in both prospects and cash to buy at the deadline if the chance for a sensible deal comes up. I’m not sure if they’ll have much to sell this year besides Gardy and Headley if they’re far enough out of it by then, but they already have a number of exciting young prospects that will be fun to keep tabs on. I think most everyone realizes that they are clearly attempting to reset their luxury tax after this season (after CC and A-rod come off the books), and are gearing up for a big run in free agency after the 2018 season. In the meantime, they are more of a “pretending contender” which is just fine by me when comparing to how most other teams have to navigate a rebuild.
Agreed. They will keep it just close enough throughout the year to make it interesting into September. A good break could allow them to sneak a wild card. Otherwise, they will probably settle into about .500, maybe a game or two above. Can’t complain.
I don’t think they could get much for Headley or Gardner unless one or both had a huge first half, so I’m not sure it’s worth being a seller at the deadline as long as they are around .500 still with half a shot.
It’s amazing that they were able to revitalize the farm system by selling and drafting, while not having to tank at all like the Cubs, Phillies, Nationals, etc. did to build their strong young teams.
McCann got a borderline top-100 guy in Abreu. Gardner should get something decent — he’s a much better player.
McCann is an excellent framer, he’s at least close to Gardner’s skill level
You guys have a few players who are really fun to watch, too: Sanchez, Bird, Judge, Betances, Chapman…
Totally agree: this is a much more fun team IMHO than the Yankees have presented in awhile, and that’s speaking as a Red Sox fan. This is a hard team for me to root against, unlike some of the recent Yankee teams.
I hear you dawholefnshow99. As a Red Sox fan, I also feel spoiled. And, also as a typically skeptical/negative New Englander, I never sleep on the Yankees.
In the last decade or so, I always go into the season thinking that the Sox are overrated and the Yankees underrated. As Paul mentions in the article, look at the number of times the Yankees have finished under 500 (when???), whereas several recent Red Sox teams — predicted to be very good, by the way — have finished under 500.
To be clear, I’m not dismissing any of the projection systems: and though my brain believes the Red Sox have a good chance to win the division, my heart urges me to bet on the Yankees.
Seems like a team that could use Brian Dozier, but alas, it does not appear so.
But they’re not really going for it this year. And Cashman has said that he wants to see what these prospects can do before he trades them.
Seeing what a prospect can do is a double edged sword, if they don’t play well, they just lost much of their value. And I get they aren’t going for it this year.
I disagree. I don’t think Dozier even puts them into the top tier of teams. Steamer has Dozier as a 2 win upgrade over Castro (3.2 vs 1.1), and going from 83 to 85 wins doesn’t really move the needle enough when Boston, Cleveland, and Houston are at 90-93 wins. Plus they’d need to give up a premium prospect for just 2 years of Dozier. So he’d hit free agency just as the Yanx are actually looking to be a real contender, and they’d be taking on the $15 million he’s owed the next 2 years when they are looking to shed salary to reset their luxury tax after this year (see: McCann trade).
Whether Yankee fans like it or not, there IS an upper limit of what the Yankees are willing to spend. So taking that into account, think of it this way: let’s say the Yanx have $200 million total that they’re willing to spend on player salary/benefits and luxury tax. Wouldn’t it be better to decrease the amount you’re spending on luxury tax, and instead allocate that amount to player salary?
Why does it make sense to trade top prospecs for a two year rental right around the timeframe they’re expected to be legit contenders?
I disagree with this line of thinking though. Dozier does offer the Yanks something they are missing – a true 30 home run threat. It could potentially be Judge and Bird. But Judge needs to show he can hit MLB hitting and Bird is coming off a real bad injury. The Yanks lack power.
Can you really consider a .348 wOBA for Sanchez conservative? I don’t have a way to calc his combined wOBA at the minor league level over multiple seasons but he has a career .799 OPS in the minors and .820 at AAA in 2015-2016 over 459 PA. The projection for 2017 is for an .811 OPS. The projection is for a .223 ISO – other than his 229 PA last year, he’s never posted a number that high at any other level above Rookie ball. Certainly the K%, BB% and BABIP seem reasonable. I mean, the future is the future and is unknowable and maybe Sanchez drops another .400 wOBA on baseball, but the projection seems slightly optimistic to me.
Looked at another way – from 2010-2016 there have only been 11 catchers (22 total seasons) who have posted a .348 wOBA or better in a qualified season. In that time, only Posey and Carlos Santana did it in their 1st or 2nd year in the majors.
An .820 OPS in the IL comes out to a 135 wRC+…which doesn’t account for park factors in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in one of the most pitcher-friendly leagues in organized baseball.
The Yankees resources this year are only meaningful if the performance from their roster is sufficient to get them into striking distance–and I’m not convinced yet that the old guys have enough left in the tank, or the new guys will mature enough. What I want to see is progress. I don’t have great expectations.
The Yankee lineup looks a lot better when you don’t adjust for ball park. Projected wRC+ does not paint such a pretty picture. And this shouldn’t be surprising since the Yankee offense is essentially Sanchez, Holliday, Bird, and a bunch of average/below average production.
109 BOS
104 SEA
103 CLE
103 DET
103 HOU
101 LAA
100 BAL
100 TOR
99 TEX
96 MIN
96 TBR
95 NYY***
94 OAK
93 CHW
89 KCR
It seemed like a few of the stats used were cherrypicked a bit to fit the narrative. Whats so special about 3+ WAR SP and 1.5+ WAR RP
“What’s so special about 1.5+ WAR RP”?
Huh?
There are 3 RP in all of baseball projected for over 1.5 WAR. Having 2 of those pitchers is insane.
Don’t the yankees play in Yankee stadium half the time though? I get using adjustments to get to true talent and value outside the context of where they play, but these guys do play in that stadium, half the time. I’m not sure we should adjust things then. But, maybe I’m just tired from working all day, and not thinking this thru correctly.
For the purposes of comparing one offense relative to the league it’s best to adjust for park factors. If you just wanted to estimate who will lead the league in runs then don’t adjust for park factors. Also, when the Yankees offense gets the benefit of Yankee Stadium so does the NYY opponent.
The part about their opponent getting it as well is what I thought about. Does looking at fip account for their stadium? I know it takes into account hrs, but I’m unsure if that is the only benefit YS provides to hitters. With that said, looking at the fip and era of their pitchers from last year, it would seem that they mostly beat their fip, so maybe it isn’t a huge deal?
No, it does not account for their stadium, which is why this is a silly comment thread.
Swydan did an apples to apples comparison.
the Yankees amaze me. In 3 of the last 4 years, they have been outscored on the year by 20 runs or so, yet they had winning records. I don’t know, but I think that’s unique.
For the last 4 years combined, the Yanks are #3 in net wins over Pythagorean W%. Texas is #1; they’ve been outscored by a few more runs than the Yanks and have 1 more win. The top and bottom 5:
Wins Over Pyth. Projection, 2013-16
1) Rangers, +18.2
2) Phillies, +17.5
3) Yankees, +16.8
4) Pirates, +14.3
5) Royals, +13.6
…
26) Astros, -12.3
27) Red Sox, -14.3
28) Blue Jays, -16.2
29) Rockies, -18.1
30) A’s, -20.1
Basically, the projections scream mediocrity. 85 wins, much like the last 4 years, +/- the standard error of +/-6 wins.
Bird is coming off labrum surgery which has been known t sap power for years, although thats a nice park for him and he will be an upgrade over what they got last year at 1B. Judge can hit the ball hard when he connects, but his K rate is quite a concern and that looks like a downgrade from what they got in RF last year. Sanchez finished his last 31 games batting 222 with a 311 OBP. Looked like pitchers adjusted to him after his hot start. Great arm but had trouble keeping the ball in front of him. Slight upgrade over Mccann overall IMO. Could be higher though.
The rotation could be a disaster with Tanaka, Pineda and CC all major injury risks and poised for regression after an unexpectedly healthy 2016. Some promising arms at the back end but nobody who looks like top of the rotation material. Adams might be a callup at the deadline AND could give the rotation a boost
So sure, the Yankees could get lucky and make a run for a WC spot, but they will need luck. They could also experience some bad luck like in 2013 and end up under 500 for the first time since 1992. Dont rule out another sell if they are at 500 by the deadline, with Gardner, Headley, Pineda, Tanaka and maybe Betances available
Tanaka is pretty clearly a top of the rotation pitcher. Also why would Tanaka and Pineda be major injury risks? Sabathia is old and has a chronic knee condition, however, Tanaka and Pineda are both young and each made more than 30 starts last year. They have no greater injury risk than any other young, healthy pitcher.
Is this article an annual tradition, written by whoever draws the short end of the stick? Here’s last years’ version, written by Dave Cameron:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-yankees-the-most-underrated-team-in-baseball/
Not buying this at all. Judges projection is absurd, gregorius was a juiced ball benefactor, els/ Gardner/ Holliday another year older, bird just missed a whole year. That’s just offensively.
Pitching is painting the rosiest picture as well. Pineda is vastly overrated by fip, Sabathia isn’t likely to make even 25 starts and is a big regression candidate. And they lost eovaldi who at the very least was a surefire above replacement level pitcher which can’t be said of his replacements.
Tanakas a beast though and I hope he has a fully healthy year but I think you can give that like a 40% chance at best.
The Yankees should be significantly improved in multiple areas – DH (Holliday v. A-Rod), 1B (Bird v. Tex), C (full year of Sanchez), and rotation depth (got nothing out of Eovaldi and Nova, whereas Kaprelian, Green, Severino, Sheffield, or others SHOULD offer some improvement). However, they got best-outcome type seasons from Tanaka, Sabathia, and maybe Gregorius, and will be downgrading from Andrew Miller and half a season of Carlos Beltran. Severino, at minimum, should be able to re-create the bullpen depth of 2016.
Accordingly, Pineda, Kaprelian, Green/Cessa, and Sheffield are probably the biggest variables in determining whether they are a solid team (85-88 wins) or actual contenders (90+).
Finally, given their minor league depth, it is almost a given they will acquire someone to give them a bump if they are winning 55-60 percent of their games.
If I was a Yankees fan, I would be pretty optimistic about the season.
Kaprielian is at least 2 years away, he is in no way a variable and I’m the high man on him. Sheffield has 1 start in AA, thinking anything other than a September call up for him is nuts.
I think the offense has potential to be good (depending on the developement of the Young guys) but I’m worried about the Rotation. not that it is terrible but not much depth there and while tanakas arm Held up so far the risk is still looming. one injury to the Rotation could be very bad.
As a Yankee fan I’m thrilled we have layers of prospects throughout the farm system. Torres and Frazier get most of the billing, however I believe Blake Rutherford will be an elite player in 2-3 years. They also have some young arms in the minors that impressed last year and their progression will be closely watched. With the luxury tax ending after 2017, and more seasoning for the minor leaguers the future looks very positive.
“In addition, if he can round back to his previous form, he should top his .354 wOBA projection, as it would easily be his lowest wOBA at any level as a professional.”
But shouldn’t we expect players in general to put up lower numbers in the majors than they put up at other levels? Presumably that’s why his projection is what it is. And a .354 wOBA projection isn’t shabby.
Also:
“The disparity between New York’s FIP and WAR ranking tells me that the Yankees’ best pitchers are the ones slated to pitch the most innings.”
Isn’t another explanation that their park gives up a lot of homers?
This teams projects as average at basically every position, with a considerable amount of upside on the MLB roster and plenty of talent in the high minors. Plus, for the first time in many years, they aren’t depending too heavily on veterans that are past their primes.
So, from the lineup presented in the post:
Gardner 33. (leadoff hitter)
Holliday 37. (cleanup hitter)
Ellsbury 33. (#6 hitter)
Headley 32. (#9 hitter, and Steamer projects as 3rd best player)
So… yeah. Not dependent at all on “past their prime” veterans.