Don’t Trade Jackie Bradley for Jose Abreu
If there’s been one fairly easy prognostication this winter, it’s that the Red Sox are going to sign one of the expensive free agent hitters available in this class. Dave Dombrowski has historically not been shy about spending big to upgrade his roster, and has also shown a propensity for building rosters around power. The Red Sox ranked 27th in home runs last year. This is probably not something he wants to repeat.
So everyone has been linking the Red Sox to one of J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, or Carlos Santana, the three best hitters in this class. But perhaps the assumption that the Sox would sign one of those three has been more about those guys being available than about how well any of them actually might fit in Boston.
Of those three, Martinez is the only guy who could be described as a slugger, with Hosmer and Santana creating value by making contact (and drawing walks, in Santana’s case). Saying that Dombrowski will sign Hosmer or Santana to help the team’s home run total is weird, given that the Red Sox got 21 home runs from their first baseman last year, while Santana projects to hit 28 this year and Hosmer projects to hit 26. It’s more than they got from Mitch Moreland and friends, but it’s not like either one is going to dramatically alter the team’s slugging percentage.
And Martinez, while filling the desire for dingers, would require some sacrifices on the roster to make the current team work. An OF/DH joining a team that already has three outfielders and a DH means that either Hanley Ramirez has to play first base almost everyday — which he hasn’t been healthy enough to do of late — or that Martinez has to displace either Andrew Benintendi or Jackie Bradley Jr. from the line-up. And if you’re spending north of $100 million to sign Martinez, you want to make sure you’re getting a substantial upgrade, not just swapping out one good player for another.
So perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised that the Red Sox are looking at alternative options. And this morning, Jon Heyman reported on one that might be a particularly good fit.
chisox have been in active talks with red sox and others on star 1B jose abreu. boston was 1 of 4 finalists for abreu when he signed with chicago (milwaukee & houston were the others).
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 29, 2017
Abreu has hit 30+ home runs in three of his four seasons in the majors, and is coming off a particularly strong season, where he hit .304/.354/.552, good for a 138 wRC+. He’s not a great defensive first baseman, but he’s good enough to allow Hanley to stay at DH full-time. He’d give the team something similar in overall production to what they could get from signing Hosmer or Santana, only slanted more towards the home run side of things, which probably fits Dombrowski’s preferences a bit more.
And if you trade for Abreu, you aren’t signing up for a long-term commitment. Abreu has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, and then the team could decide whether Rafael Devers is going to stick at third base long-term or if they need to shift him across the diamond. Abreu would upgrade the team’s offense in the short-term without requiring the kind of contract that could hamper the team’s efforts to win in the future. Abreu makes plenty of sense for the Red Sox, and maybe more sense than any of the free agents.
So, unsurprisingly, my chat today contained plenty of questions about what an Abreu-to-Boston trade might look like. More surprising was how many of them involved the Red Sox send Bradley to Chicago as part of the deal.
Let’s just get this out of the way, since I already wrote it in the headline: the Red Sox should not trade Jackie Bradley Jr for Jose Abreu straight up.
Abreu is a nice player who would help the team, but turning Bradley into Abreu is a lateral move at best.
| 2015-2017 | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 1432 | 0.255 | 0.337 | 0.456 | 0.339 | 109 | 10.2 | 24.7 | 21.6 | 9.7 |
| Jose Abreu | 2038 | 0.296 | 0.351 | 0.508 | 0.362 | 130 | -8.7 | 64.1 | -43.8 | 9.1 |
Over the last three years, Bradley and Abreu have produced roughly equivalent WAR totals despite Bradley getting 600 fewer plate appearances. Abreu’s clearly a better hitter, but there’s a huge gap in baserunning value, so the offensive difference has only been about worth 10 runs per 600 PAs, and Bradley’s outstanding defense in center field is clearly worth more than Abreu’s mediocre defense at first base. Bradley’s WAR isn’t inflated by some huge UZR numbers either; in fact, the public perception is that Bradley is more valuable defensively than our fielding numbers suggest.
Going forward, Bradley should continue to be at least as valuable as Abreu, if not more so. He turns 28 in April, while Abreu turns 31 in January. And while one can certainly quibble with Bradley’s inconsistency, as he fell apart in the second half last year, Abreu hasn’t exactly been a steady performer himself, performing at a below-average level as recently as 2016. Steamer projects Bradley for +3.2 WAR in 2018, while Abreu is forecast for +2.8 WAR, so unless you’re dramatically overweighting offensive value, swapping the two wouldn’t really make the Red Sox better.
And then there are the financial implications. Both Abreu and Bradley are arbitration eligible this winter, but because of how arbitration rewards offense relative to defense, their projected costs are wildly different. Matt Swartz forecasts a $17.9 million salary for Abreu, a $7 million raise over what he got as a first-time eligible player last year. Bradley, meanwhile, is projected to earn just $5.9 million, a $2.3 million raise over what he got as a Super-Two last year, given that his 2017 offensive numbers won’t impress the panel.
So swapping the two straight up would add $11 million to the Red Sox payroll for 2018. That isn’t enough to sign a premium free agent, but it gets you most of the way to the AAV that a guy like Carlos Santana would require, and just signing him instead would give the team a +3 WAR first baseman while also retaining their +3 WAR center fielder.
And then there’s the service time difference. While both Bradley and Abreu are second-time arbitration eligible, Abreu has four full years of service, while Bradley is at 3 years and 159 days, meaning he won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season. So the Red Sox have three more years of Bradley’s services, while Abreu would only come with two years of control before he hit free agency.
And it’s not like the Red Sox have a starting-caliber fourth outfielder who would make it more efficient to turn a +3 WAR outfielder into a +3 WAR first baseman. Right now, we have their top outfield reserve as Bryce Brentz, a soon-to-be-29-year-old who spent all of last year in Triple-A and projects to put up an 87 wRC+ next year. The other internal option is probably Brock Holt, who was alternately terrible and injured last year, and has a career wRC+ of 88. Neither of these guys should be starting for a contender in 2018.
If the Red Sox traded Bradley for Abreu, they’d be removing roughly $11 million from their budget while simply shifting the spot at which they’d need to upgrade this winter. Oh, and this is a much deeper class of first baseman sign than outfielders, so replacing Bradley by just throwing more money at a veteran is likely more difficult than just signing someone to play first base. And they’d be getting older while reducing the number of controllable years of their best players.
Trading Bradley for Abreu would make the Red Sox worse, not better. It’s just not something the organization should want to do.
That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t trade for Abreu, though. If the White Sox request is more reasonable, and they can add Abreu while keeping Bradley for themselves, that’s certainly something worth exploring. But Abreu is going to cost something like $40 million over the next two years, and at that price, he’s not so much more valuable than any of the free agent alternatives that the team should surrender some high-quality asset to bring him to Boston. If he costs you a couple of not-that-close prospects, that’s interesting. If the White Sox want Bradley, though, Dombrowski should tell them to go pound sand.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I can’t imagine why anyone would trade JBJ for Abreu (for all the reasons presented here), much less to clear a spot for Martinez in the *outfield*. Is the theory that they would just stick him in left field so he can watch balls carom off the Green Monster, figuring there’s only so much relative damage he can do where a lot of players struggle anyway?
The whole reason everyone links the Red Sox to Martinez is because he wouldn’t have to play the field except in interleague games (that, and because Dombrowski knows him and can spend gobs of money).
The Red Sox’ pitch should probably be something like “we will take the whole salary and give you Sam Travis and other possible relievers in our farm system back in return.” Not that the White Sox should even consider such an offer (someone’s gotta top that), but that’s probably closer to the offer the Red Sox will offer. Just because the White Sox are asking for JBJ and it got leaked to the media doesn’t mean the Red Sox have any interest in trading him.
I know that you qualified this statement by saying that the White Sox shouldn’t consider it, but it’s so ridiculous that I can’t understand why you posted it in the first place. Jose Abreu for salary relief, Sam Travis, and some relievers? Really?
Not saying the trade proposal works, but did you not read Dave’s article? Jose Abreu doesn’t really have any value.
Abreu is owed $11.5 million and $12 million over the next two seasons. Even if he repeats his worst season twice, that contract still has surplus value.
Abreu’s contract allows him to opt in to arbitration, so he will make significantly more than that. MLBTR’s ARB calculator predicted $17m for 2018. He’d get more in 2019.
My bad, you’re right. So if he repeated his worst year twice then he wouldn’t have surplus value, but he is expected to exceed that by quite a bit.
Abreu has definite value. The point is the marginal benefit of acquiring the big bat in Abreu is non-existent. While trading away JBJ would solidify either 1B or DH, it would create a gaping hole in the OF. What do they do? Put Betts or Beni in center? Who do they plug in left/right then? I’m not too familiar with Boston’s minor league system, but it seems like their top OF prospects are both currently in A or high A. They would have to sign a FA OF, basically adding to the cost of acquiring Abreu.
I think the idea is precisely that Benintendi’s defensive value isn’t currently being maximized by having him in left field when the organization believes that he could be a quality center fielder. Maybe they’re correct about that and maybe not.
They plug *JD Martinez* in left or right.
He does have value, just no Surplus value. if the sox eat a Little salary he might return a decent prospect.
Abreu has no surplus value only if he repeats his worst year twice. If he performs at his usual level, he has considerable surplus value even as his arbitration costs increase.
If reality was constrained to Dave’s opinion, then Abreu might not have value. In the real world, he does.
What, you want to send away Jay Groome? That’s about the only valuable prospect they have to offer. Maybe that’s worth it. But for all the reasons in the article, there’s no way in hell they should trade JBJ. Or Boegarts, or Benintendi, or any of the other people the White Sox will ask about.
Better to just resign yourself to do the ask that will get rejected, because the White Sox are not going to do a salary dump, which is pretty much all the Red Sox are able to offer in value.
Better question is whether you’d want Abreu for about 2/$40 million but subtracting Groome, or Martinez on the ridiculous 7/$150 million or whatever contract he’s going to command.
For Jose Abreu on a legitimate contender? In a heartbeat.
As noted by multiple commenters, the reasoning employed by Dave in the article is highly suspect. Abreu has been significantly more valuable than Bradley in all but one season, we’re more confident in Abreu’s value than Bradley’s, and Benintendi’s defensive abilities aren’t currently being maximized in left field.
Or we could just agree that suggesting Jose Abreu for salary relief, Sam Travis, and some relievers wasn’t a great idea.
Or, you could just admit there’s no deal worth having there (unless you’re willing to give up Groome). If you’re Dombrowski and you’re willing to give up Groome, there is probably a deal to be had.
(I am not at all aware of Groome’s value/prognosis right now, which is why I’m hedging on that right now. Actually, the more I think about it, the more trading Groome for Abreu seems kind of like Dombrowski’s MO, although probably not if he signs Martinez)
Trading JBJ for Abreu is a non-starter. Dave went about it in the wrong way, but he’s absolutely right. There is really no reason to trade a guy who is cheaper, has fewer years of team control, and who is projected for similar (actually better) performance on a year-by-year basis. If the deal is JBJ for Abreu, the Red Sox can, should, and most likely will walk away.
That’s not even remotely true, though. You’re doing what most people do when confronted by a mistake and doubling down with irrational excuses. Of course Boston has assets from which they could make a reasonable offer for Abreu, and you pretending otherwise just makes you look that much worse. Man up and own that you said something dumb when you suggested Jose Abreu for salary relief, Sam Travis, and some relievers.
Here again you’re making an extreme statement, even more extreme than Dave’s, because you’re defensive and trying to justify your stance. You can make a reasonable argument that the Red Sox would be better off with Abreu than Bradley, as multiple people have in this comments section. You pretending that it’s ridiculous while providing absolutely no evidence or reasoning for your adamant opposition is an emotional response, not a rational one.
Why not make the lowball offer? Doesn’t hurt to try. Maybe it’s not worth it to try. It’s probably where Boston will start anyway. That may still make it a bad idea, but I’m not so concerned with that. It’s low-stakes. I don’t care one way or the other.
Boston’s assets basically consist of a bunch of guys where trading them would hurt other spots on the major league roster, Jay Groome, Michael Chavis, Sam Travis, their draft picks from last year (who I’m not even sure are eligible to be traded) and a bunch of FV40 guys. You’re clearly willing to take the top off the rest of the system for Abreu, that’s fine. I think there’s an argument there, given Boston’s contention window.
You’re also clearly willing to weaken CF to improve 1B, pay more to do it, and have less control, all to have a guy who is projected for *less* value next year. Your argument seems to revolve around the idea that when Jose Abreu was 26, he had a really excellent season (or alternatively, that JBJ was not very good when he was 23). Or that JBJ’s defensive value will decline substantially before 30. Both of these, in theory, should be captured by projection systems. And if the projection systems are wrong, you still have to pay more for fewer years of control for a guy who is approximately the same value on average.
So I would argue that paying more over a shorter period of time for similar (if not worse) year-by-year production is a non-starter. It’s telling that the main argument in favor of this trade is to take Dave’s initial mistake and doubling down on it.
Because making offensively low offers hurts your reputation around the league.
*sigh* Well, I guess we’re at the point where you’re so defensive that you’re going to blatantly misrepresent what I’ve said even though I have provided specific reasoning multiple times. Instead of doing that, please answer the following questions.
#1) Has Jose Abreu been more valuable than Jackie Bradley Jr. in three out of the last four seasons?
#2) Can defensive value be acquired more easily in free agency than offensive value?
#3) Does defense generally decline in a player’s late 20s?
#4) Does Boston already have in-house replacements capable of handling center field?
#1) Yes, but who cares? It’s future production that matters.
#2) Technically yes, but finding someone with the combination of offensive and defensive prowess in center field is far harder than finding a good-hitting first baseman. This is the entire point of WAR–to make comparisons like this.
#3) Yes, but not all at once and there’s no evidence of that yet. Odds that it will make a serious dent in his defensive value by age 30 is low.
#4) We don’t know. Benintendi might be okay there, and you need a great defender for Fenway’s ridiculous right field so you can’t shift Betts over. This also requires finding a replacement in left field, who will almost certainly be a defensive downgrade.
And now some for you:
#5) Who is projected to be better over the next 3 years?
#6) Who is going to cost more over the next 2 years?
#7) Who has more team control?
#8) At which position is it cheaper to obtain a decent replacement in free agency?
I don’t think I’m being defensive. I think that I would rather pay $20 million for 9 WAR than $38 million for 6 WAR. The heart of this is that you don’t believe either of their projections (for whatever reason you employ, whether it’s because JBJ is worse than he looks or defensive WAR isn’t valuable), and you think the vast advantage Abreu has over JBJ compensates for all the better economics of keeping JBJ.
I think most observers have probably made up their mind about our respective positions at this point.
The best predictor of future production is past production. Obviously you put a lot of weight in Bradley’s 2016 outlier performance whereas I and others do not. I see Bradley as a 2-2.5 WAR player and Abreu as a 3-4 WAR player. If accurate, that would give Abreu a 2-3 WAR advantage over the next two seasons combined, which would make Abreu the more valuable player even accounting for their salary differences. Perhaps I am underestimating Bradley and/or overestimating Abreu, but there is sound statistical to suggest that I am not. It’s fine for you to have a different opinion, but you have absolutely no reason to suggest that Abreu being more valuable is a “non-starter” other than you being defensive and trying to make excuses for your earlier silly comment about offering to “take the whole salary and give you Sam Travis and other possible relievers in our farm system” for Abreu.
It really isn’t. Even if we use Dave’s arguably misleading three year measurement, Abreu was the 8th most valuable first baseman during that span whereas Bradley was the 13th most valuable center fielder. And as noted, you don’t have to pay anywhere near as much in free agency for defense as you do for offense.
That’s not true at all. You made a comment earlier that suggested you didn’t even know that defense declined in the late 20s, and it would be a surprise if he didn’t experience a significant decline in his defensive value by age 30. In fact, his defensive value the last two seasons is already drastically lower in UZR/150 than Bradley’s defensive value in ’14-’15. He also slipped significantly during that time in DRS once you adjust for the time he missed in 2015. So both defensive measures suggest that Bradley is already slipping, and history tells us that the average player continues to decline at these ages.
Rusney Castillo would not be a defensive downgrade. Whether or not he would hit enough to stay in the lineup is a legitimate question, though.
#5) As noted above, I would project Abreu to have a significant advantage in WAR over Bradley during the next three seasons, and that’s without even factoring in that MLB teams very clearly believe that defensive WAR is being overestimated.
#6) Abreu will cost more.
#7) Bradley has one additional year of team control.
#8) Generally it is cheaper to find an above average center fielder than an above average first baseman simply because the market does not and never has paid as much for defense as it does for offense. Compare the contract projections for Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain, despite Cain being vastly ahead in WAR over the last three seasons.
Because 2016 stands out as a massive outlier for Jackie Bradley Jr. In no other season has he come even close to it, whereas Jose Abreu has been consistently more valuable. I am not discounting the possibility that Bradley could have another season like 2016, I just don’t believe that it’s likely. I see him as a 2-2.5 WAR player who will soon decline to a 1.5-2 WAR player, whereas you see Jose Abreu being worth only salary relief, Sam Travis, and some relievers.
So basically, you’re figuring that Jackie Bradley will do exactly what he did in 2017 and 2018 (and be worse in 2019), and so will Jose Abreu. I don’t know why we even bother with projections, aging curves, or anything else if we just assume last year will be what happens the next two. Everything you’ve said has already been baked into those projections. The projections aren’t destiny (especially with players as volatile with JBJ), but they are a lot better than us picking and choosing random factoids about players to support our pre-existing beliefs.
I note this with some irony, since I’m usually the one interested in short sample predictions over upcoming short samples…but this isn’t exactly a short sample, nor is the distance between seasons really short.
Two other points:
I don’t know what point you were trying to make with Eric Hosmer vs. Lorenzo Cain, but I think the more salient point is that if you’re trying to pick a hole to fill you’d much rather it be at 1B. There’s lots of decent 1B options out there. But you also seem to think there’s no difference between JBJ and Jarrod Dyson, so clearly we’re not of the same mind of how people value up-the-middle position players.
Second, the drop in defensive WAR by JBJ is at least partially due to better defensive positioning across the league. 2016 was a major drop for him, but 2017 was because everyone else has improved. Also note that his great defensive season in 2015 was split between RF and CF, and he didn’t seem to do as well in CF (I suspect this has to do with the weird dimensions of Fenway’s RF).
Clearly you’re not defensive at all. I was so wrong to suggest otherwise.
No, it isn’t. As someone who has been making projections for twenty years, I can assure you that Steamer doesn’t make individual judgments about what is a fluke season or not. It’s a system that tries to minimize such subjective measurements, even if it means missing on some players, because in theory that produces more accurate results overall.
The facts and statistics that I have been providing are straight-forward and relevant. Abreu outperforming Bradley in all but one season is not a random factoid. Defense (and especially range) declining earlier than offense is not a random factoid. Bradley’s defense already showing decline is not a random factoid. Hitting WAR being more expensive than defensive WAR in free agency is not a random factoid.
I’m aware. You make definitive judgments, usually with minimal if any evidence to support them, then argue against anyone who presents evidence contradicting your position.
I was directly addressing your false statements about center fielders being more valued than first basemen. History shows us very conclusively otherwise. If Jose Abreu and Jackie Bradley Jr. both became free agents tomorrow, Abreu would receive the bigger contract despite being three years older. The market simply values his skills at a much higher level than it does Bradley’s.
*sigh* This is the second time you have blatantly misrepresented my position even though I have been explicit about what I think regarding these two players. Please stop doing that. At no point did I suggest that Bradley was interchangeable with Dyson, as Jarrod is older and doesn’t have the same offensive potential.
The primary reason for the drop in Bradley’s UZR/150 and DRS is that his range over the last two years has not been as good as it was in ’14-’15, which is exactly what I pointed out happens to players entering their late twenties.
1. You agree that projection systems are right more often than not. It minimizes subjective decisions about what is a “fluke,” and this is precisely why it does better.
2. All those things you cited are random factoids. They are all true (more or less…more on that later), and all selectively picked to defend your opinion. This is not unusual. This is what people do. And it is not an accident that projection systems tend to do better than we do, because projection systems don’t use motivated reasoning.
3. In general, offense is paid more than defense on the market. Center fielders with offensive potential and good defense tend to be more valuable than defensively limited (and older) first basemen. It’s probably 50/50 whether Abreu would command more on the open market than Bradley, but even if he did he certainly wouldn’t command twice as much.
4. Take a look at Dyson’s production, and what you said JBJ would do. It may not be what you said, but it is what you meant.
5. Sometime take a look at defensive WAR from last year versus the year before it, as well as the position JBJ played in those years. You might be surprised what you find. I don’t doubt his range is declining since father time is undefeated (and there was a pretty big drop a couple years ago), but he’s 27. He’s not falling off a cliff.
6. Also, counting up who had better seasons is a misleading way to determine who has been better, since it takes continuous values and makes them dichotmous, and because you’re comparing Abreu’s prime to JBJ’s early struggles (as opposed to more recent seasons). But that (and #5) are smaller points that don’t change things all that much either way.
P.S. I’m not sure why I’m still having this conversation since we’re not going anywhere, but I figure it’s because I find it interesting.
When negotiating always ask for more than you can or would expect and then go from there. At least worth White Sox asking…You never know, teams have made far dumber trades. P.S. Trust me I’m a lifelong Cubs fan. LOL
Have you ever watched JBJ over a full season or even over a couple of months? There is absolutely NO WAY his defense makes up for what people call his “offense”. He’s one of the most inconsistent hitters I’ve ever seen, not to mention you can blow him away with high fastballs or curves in the dirt any time you want. I’ve also never seen a guy who, when he swings and misses, misses by so much. His post-season stats are a .160 avg with 13 Ks in 26 ABs!!! I’d trade him for Abreu in a heartbeat. Then you move Benintendi over to CF and sign J D Martinez. And there you go… last year’s power problem(s) solved.
Going with defense over offense is one of the biggest blunders a GM can make. The better hitting team ALWAYS does better, given a roughly equivalent pitching staff. Trading offense for defense is like a country taxing yourself into prosperity. Sounds good in theory, but has the opposite result.
I’m guessing everyone who wouldn’t trade JBJ for Abreu either a) doesn’t watch a whole heck of a lot of baseball, or b) is a member of Red Sox Pink Hat Nation, to whom JBJ is God.
Is this an actual rumor or just fan driven lunacy?
Not yet, but there’s plenty of lunacy about this idea.
I think it’s just the result of smashing two legitimate but not necessarily related rumors together: (1) RS interested in Abreu and (2) WS interested in JBJ.
Plus if Boston is interested in a guy like Martinez (or Stanton), they likely would want to clear a spot in the OF, and JBJ is the obvious choice to go. But yeah, JBJ for Abreu makes no sense, but if Chicago threw in another player with some value, then this is at least the start of a potential deal.
Chicago’s interest in JBJ, however, is almost entirely fan driven lunacy. They want to hang onto Abreu and would only move him if they were overwhelmed by the return (same plan as the trades of Sale, Eaton, and Q). So they’re going to add more to Abreu to get a player they’re less than marginally interested in.
Read Heyman’s tweet from the article above; “chisox have been in active talks with red sox and others on star 1B jose abreu.”
Seems like there is some substance to this rumor.
The White Sox have wanted JBJ for a long time. They insisted on getting him back for Chris Sale, which tanked the deal for a while. Of course, the Red Sox would be lunatics to consider JBJ for Abreu, and given that Dombrowski held firm in the Sale talks I’d guess he agrees.
Really?
Yes. You either really like Jose Abreu, or really don’t like JBJ. You want to pay more for fewer years of team control and similar year-by-year value? I wouldn’t.
It was only a couple years ago when Red Sox fans hated JBJ and everyone loved Abreu. Fandom can be a fickle thing.
As multiple people have noted, Abreu’s value has been significantly higher than Bradley’s in all but one season, Abreu’s value (offense vs. defense) is more trusted and more expensive to acquire, and Abreu’s value comes in the form of something Boston has less in-house options to produce.
When that “similar value” is more consistently offered on a game by game basis? Absolutely.
The FanGraphs crew is, legitimately, the only set of people who think that defensive runs saved and offensive runs produced are equally valuable.
Teams, including the “smart” ones, certainly don’t.
Thanks you, terrific response. It’s clear nobody actually watches baseball anymore, most simply glean opinions based on geek stats. Go find me one real scout who wouldn’t make this trade from the RS side and I’ll show you an out-of-work scout. Eyeballs people, every use them to watch real players play baseball? Wow, just wow.
Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland combined for 0.5 WAR in 2017. Hanley is projected to be better in 2018 but if I were Boston, I would not feel confident with both players getting significant playing time.
To me the WAR totals are a little misleading. 2015-2017 includes Bradley’s “outlier” season in 2016 which was 5.0. In his other 3 seasons he combined for 5.3 WAR. Abreu on the other hand had his worst season in 2016, (1.8 WAR) but is coming off a 4.1 WAR season in 2017. He’s averaged 3.6 WAR in his four seasons in the majors.
The projections have Bradley a bit more valuable but that’s largely based on defense. But, he’s projected to be a near average hitter. If Boston could replace Bradley with a defense first CF (maybe 1.5-2.0 WAR player) and get Abreu to fill in for a near replacement level 1B, then they’ve upgraded.
I don;t know the Red Sox roster or system well enough to know if they have a player like that or would need to make a move proving to be more difficult.
They have the poor man’s Jose Abreu making big bucks at triple A. His name is Rusney Castillo.
I don’t think it takes much thought to get to the bottom of these suggestions: Bradley’s perceived value among the more casual fans is simply lower than his true value. As has been said before, defense doesn’t really slump, so Bradley’s practical floor is very high. He only needs to hold his own offensively to then be a very useful player (an argument I made for why teams should be trying to steal him in a trade before his breakout), and therein lies the rub – because his slumps are so bad, there are times when his strong baserunning and excellent defense aren’t enough to make up for a nearly automatic out.
I wouldn’t begrudge anyone preferring a player of equal value who is steadier (I think we all would), but it’s silly how overlooked he is. Indeed, the fact that he slumps so much offensively and yet has a solid-or-better bat overall speaks to how much he can carrying a team when he is “on”, and it shouldn’t be forgotten that almost the entire Boston lineup sagged last year, so there might be an extra factor or two that was temporarily at work last season to suppress offense.
So I think it’s pretty clear that Bradley makes for a tremendous second-tier piece to a winning-team puzzle. You don’t want him to be one of your three or so best bats in your lineup, but if you have 3-5 core offensive pieces and THEN add Bradley to the mix to add bite to the lower part of your lineup with value in all the other aspects of the game…you’re doing pretty well.
Oh man, but when Bradley is hot, he is HOT. I would love to see an article on the streakiest players in the majors, and I would guess that Bradley would be on it.
I’m pretty sure Ben Lindbergh did something like this awhile ago. I remember Harper and possibly Votto being on the list.
I ran outta time and could not edit. What my other comment is referring to is different, I think. It looked at the “hottest-hot-streaks”. Not the streakiest players.
The three year comparison makes them look even, but a four year comparison swings things wildly in Abreu’s favor. 2016 is the only season where Abreu wasn’t at least half a win more valuable. Also, much of Bradley’s value comes from his defense, which is not only a less reliable measure and less valued on the open market, but is something the Red Sox can more easily replace in-house. Personally, I would rather sign J.D. Martinez if he is willing to play first base, but I also think that trading Jackie Bradley Jr. for Jose Abreu would make Boston a better team.
I think the point that Dave is making, and quite well, is that it is not likely to offer a real improvement (although the projections actually favor JBJ over Abreu) and that it makes it harder to upgrade.
What Abreu offers is standard first base defense with a substantially above average bat. He’s pretty consistent.
What JBJ offers is above-average CF defense (which can vary from year to year, but he’s been remarkably stable) with a range of possible outcomes (a little below average to substantially above average). It’s not hard to see how on average the Red Sox come out ahead from keeping JBJ even before factoring in the difficulty in upgrading CF vs 1B…even if JBJ is less of a “sure thing”.
Bradley’s defensive value comes primarily from his range, which declines earlier than hitting, and the Red Sox already have viable alternatives for center field.
He’s 27. How early are you expecting his range to decline?
Late 20s is typically when it begins to decline. This was widely discussed after the Jason Heyward contract.
https://twitter.com/jeffwzimmerman/status/675410540064210944
“After age 28, the defensive decline starts.” And range declines more rapidly than the arm, which is important because most of Bradley’s defensive value is coming from his range.
While that may be true, JBJ is so good defensively because he has phenomenal instincts. His range comes from his ability to get what could be the best reads in baseball, not from speed like a guy like Billy Hamilton. His instincts won’t fade the same way speed would from a player who relies on it to succeed.
But history tells us that what speed he has will fade, which means that his good reads will not get him to the same places that it did in his mid-twenties.
Its funny how you make the same exact argument but this time to quote Jeff Zimmerman and now commenters are coming around like “well, yea…”
Can anyone on this site formulate their own opinion without fear of what some smuck on the internet will say?
Ah, so you’re saying his defense is as decline-proof as Andruw Jones’?
For a centerfielder? really soon, not many good centerfielders over 29-30, usually get moved to a corner by 30. But you should know this since you literally comment on every article.
Ouch. Sick burn.
But they *don’t* have “difficulty upgrading CF.”
They already have two other above average defensive CFs in their outfield.
I wonder if the deal would in fact be bigger than Abreu for Bradley. The White Sox can easily take on Hanley’s salary next year ($22.75m), a net savings of about $12m for the Red Sox. That gets them under the tax for next year and leaves about $8 million to play with to stay under the tax. If they’re okay going over the tax, unloading Hanley will lower the bill if they sign Santana or more likely, Martinez.
Abreu for Bradley and Hanley is probably pretty close to a fair deal… however, I’m not totally sure why the White Sox would do it if you buy into the “Abreu’s a leader on this team” talking points the FO has put out there for a while now (and I do). You’d think they’d want another prospect, and while the Red Sox might throw in someone far off and not that highly regarded, again I’m guessing the White Sox are going to ask for one of Boston’s top three or four prospects… I doubt Boston bites on that deal.
The White Sox are rebuilding and 2 or 3 years from contending. In that case, why would they trade for any player who has just 3 years of control like Bradley?
Trading him before his contract ends is the easy answer, but what if Bradley’s 2017 second half OPS of .579 isn’t an aberration.
That and the White Sox likely don’t want Hanley.
They’d add Hanley to increase their return of prospects.
I agree that Bradley doesn’t make a ton of sense for the White Sox, but they’re going to have to resign Abreu in two years as it is. And Bradley is younger.
In 2 years, the White Sox do not have to re-sign a 33 year-old Abreu as they may should have younger alternatives like Jake Burger or Gavin Sheets.
This is what rebuilding teams do – replace older players with younger players. And trade the older players while they still have value. Besides, signing 33 year-old players to multi-year contracts is typically not a good idea.
Considering the premise of the article is rumors that the White Sox want JBJ, I’m a little surprised you’re asking that.
Now I agree with you that it makes no sense, but your issue is really with the rumors not with Otter.
Regardless of the messenger, my issue is simply that the rebuilding White Sox are not going to want 3 years of Bradley since they won’t be competing for a couple of years at which time CF could be manned by the $52 million man Luis Robert or someone else within the system or acquired via trade.
How dare he think about anything except what is written in the article that the author spent 15 minutes writing? Why would he ask something that is not on the article? God Forbid!
If the CWS take Hanley, Groome’s coming with him.
Following is the commentary from SB Nation – Over The Monster with which I totally agree:
“In terms of pure fit with the Red Sox, Abreu makes perfect sense and is a very logical target for Dave Dombrowski. However, the fit for a trade with the White Sox is where I’m a bit puzzled. Chicago is a team that is in the middle of a rebuild and, realistically, is likely two or three years away from really contending. Because of that, someone like Jackie Bradley Jr. wouldn’t be an ideal trade target for them. Instead, I imagine, they’d like prospects or pre-arbitration players in return. I can’t see Boston dealing Andrew Benintendi or Rafael Devers for the slugger even given how talented he is, and I’m not sure I see a package headlined by one or both of Jason Groome and Michael Chavis being enough. It’s also worth mentioning that the White Sox are reportedly high on Abreu’s leadership and wouldn’t mind keeping him around for the rebuild to help with their younger pieces.”
The rumor is that San Francisco is hot for JBJ and would offer their best prospects, but the problem is that their best prospects aren’t that great.
I agree. I don’t see this really working for either side. JBJ is a better, younger, cheaper ballplayer than Abreu so it looks good for the White Sox on the surface. But JBJ only has three years of team control left which only puts him with the White Sox until they just start to come into what they hope will be their window. At that point, he will be 31 and due a free agent payday while maybe starting the typical age related decline and they hope to have some combination of Jimenez, Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo, and Basabe plus maybe one or two more draftees not yet in the system ready to play the outfield or very close to it. Unless they plan to flip JBJ for something younger, I just don’t really see what it does for them except get them a few meaningless wins in 2018 and 2019.
Abreu for prospects with an ETA of 2019 makes much more sense from the White Sox side and Dave just spelled out all the reasons it makes more sense from Boston’s side as well.
I don’t disagree with your conclusion, but I will say that the argument is overstated by arbitrary endpoints.
When you look at the last three seasons, their fWAR is similar, but when you got to four seasons, it becomes JBJ = 10.2 and Abreu = 14.5. And while it’s technically true to say “Abreu has a had a down year as recently as 2016,” really he’s had only one down year in his four total seasons, whereas JBJ has really only had one good year in his four full seasons. Furthermore Abreu’s worst season was a roughly league-average 1.8 fWAR, whereas JBJ’s worst was 0.5 fWAR.
Again, not saying JBJ isn’t more valuable, but saying that he’s “inconsistent” is an understatement. If the Red Sox are prioritizing offense, I think it’s fair to say that Abreu’s bat is a substantially safer bet. And, generally speaking, it’s much cheaper to buy OF defense than it is to buy corner offense on the FA market.
It isn’t arbitrary if you take age into consideration, which you are not. Abreu is about to turn 31, exiting the prime of his career. His age 27 season isn’t exactly indicative of what he will be like into his 30’s. The same is true for JBJs age 24 season. Why would the last 4 seasons hold equal weight when trying to project each player’s performance over the next several seasons?
Absolutely true. Also, even if you look at those 4 seasons with the 14.5 to 10.2 advantage for Abreu, its mostly just a games played advantage[614 vs. 497]. Per 150 games, its just a 1/4 WAR advantage, 3.5 vs. 3.25.
Its the control, age and money that makes Bradley have the clear advantage.
You can’t use “per 150” when the reason a guy has less playing time is that his bat is so catastrophically awful that his team couldn’t play him.
Age is an important factor in their evaluations, but no, taking it into account doesn’t change the fact that Dave is using arbitrary endpoints to make it look like their careers have produced nearly identical value.
Any endpoints you pick are arbitrary. For instance, you’re using arbitrary endpoints to make it look like Abreu is better than JBJ. Why are those more defensible than Dave’s?
No, I’m not — that’s my point. I’m using their entire careers, instead of cutting off JBJ’s worst season and Abreu’s best season.
While I agree with you that Dave’s reasoning here needs some work, it’s worth noting the projections like JBJ better than Abreu next year anyway (which in theory should take all this into account).
You could argue that abreu isn’t really worse than JBJ and maybe actually a bit better despite the projections but he is not better by enough to Offset the extra year and salary difference.
even if abreu produces 8 wins the next two years and JBJ is also worth 8 over 3 (which is about Maximum positive result for abreu and Maximum negative for jbj) jbj would still have more Surplus value.
But would he have “more surplus value” to a contender with 2 CF-caliber outfielders and no 1B or DH, when the best available FA plays LF?
Team construction doesn’t happen in a vacuum.
The correct answer here is “sign Carlos Santana”.
It depends on how much Santana wants, and it doesn’t do anything for the Red Sox’s power given that Santana has been roughly equal to Mitch Moreland in that department. Carlos obviously has more value in other areas, but if your primary concern is power than Moreland to Santana is a lateral move.
I don’t think their only concern should power. Santana is better than Moreland in just about every way. Signing Santana is a huge upgrade.
The objective should be “winning” over home runs. In that case, getting a +3 war first baseman at the cost of $60m/4 and a second rounder is preferable to anything that includes trading a +3 war CF for a +3-4 war first baseman making the same or more money.
JBJ for Abreu would be a terrible move for the White Sox. JBJ has had 1 good year in his career and is already 27. He doesn’t fit the timeline for the Sox at all and it isn’t likely he is going to get much better. The Sox should be able to do better than a 320 on base guy with 20 HR power who plays a decent CF. And Abreu has been worth a lot more in terms of WAR over the past 4 years – about 1.5 WAR per year. Regardless, the White Sox should be looking at younger players with more years of control even if they are riskier.
Position adjustments make those WAR values closer than they should be. Red Sox have other good options in CF internally. They dont have any good options at 1B. JBJ is wildly inconsistent offensively and the team needs offense. JBJ is also in his arb years , so his value is diminishing.
Love JBJ defensively and not a big fan of Abreu so can see DD passing on this deal. However his biggest needs are a power bat for 1B and LF and this solves half his problem and frees up LF for another bat with Benintendi moving over
Can benintendi Play CF? He gained a couple pounds of muscle mass last offseason which helped his power but his defense actually regressed some and his sprint speed also backed down a little (28.6 in 16 vs 28.2 in 17).
As somebody watched every game. Yes I know I’m a loser. There hasn’t been a defender in center field for Boston like jbj in my lifetime. Cameron is right that the metrics seem low, as he looks like the best I’ve ever seen. He plays Fenway center like a prime Lorenzo Cain with Yoenis Cespedes arm attached to his shoulder with arms on the back of his head to look at all the weird angles. The fickle part of the Red Sox fan base likes Jackie only during his hotter than hot streaks and the four or five seconds after he makes an incredible play (or double play). Nobody runs on him anymore, and I really can’t see the hurry and getting him out of town.
Nothing about trading JBJ makes any sense anyway, especially to the White Sox. JBJ is the type of player Dombrowski loves – this is the same dude that ran out Jose Iglesias and Austin Jackson for years. JBJ is definitely in a similar vein to those 2.
WAR cannot explain how well a player will fit into a system. If the Red Sox have decided that they need to add a power bat to round out the lineup, and Abreu for JBJ is a lateral move as far as “projected WAR”, why not do it?
This article gives some reasons why.
Based on Abreu’s career numbers against these pitchers, maybe the Red Sox should find a way to trade for Abreu:
JUSTIN VERLANDER
PA – 40
HR – 5
400/475/886/1361
DALLAS KEUCHEL
PA – 15
HR -2
400/400/867/1267
COREY KLUBER
PA – 49
HR – 5
356/400/756/1156
What relevance do these numbers have for assessing Abreu’s future performance?
The purpose of these numbers was to simply show that Abreu has had success against some really good pitchers who the Red Sox would be likely facing in future postseasons.
I would think that GMs would like to know whether a hitter is putting up big numbers against primarily #4 and #5 starters or if the hitter can be successful against top-of-the rotation pitchers teams will be facing in October.
And while past performance is never an absolute indicator of future performance, these numbers should be relevant to the Red Sox in that the numbers provide comfort that Abreu would add more value against playoff pitchers than other 1B options.
Simply put, if you’re the Red Sox would you rather have Abreu facing Verlander in a potential game-changing situation in Game 7 of the 2018 ALCS or one of this year’s free agent first basemen … or Mitch Moreland?
You’re right that past performance is super relavent to predicting future success and should be considered. But pro tip, but when you have a sample size of 2660 it’s probably not going to do you any good to cherry pick 104 data points to predict future performance.
And obvioulsy you want Abreu in that situation over Moreland, but who would you want in the lineup each day, Abreu or JBJ. Maybe the answer is Abreu, maybe it’s JBJ – as Dave noted it’s a wash because run prevention is a thing too. So if you think you’d rather have a Abreu than a free agent 1B okay, but would you rather have JBJ or a free agent CF? And if you still like Abreu, that’s fine, but it should be by such a small margin that when you consider cost/age/years of team control it should heavily tip the scale in JBJ’s favor.
“who the Red Sox would be likely facing in future postseasons.”
If you are implying that these stats mean he will perform better against these pitchers in the future, there is plenty of research out there that Batter vs. Pitcher stats have very little predictive value.
“these numbers should be relevant to the Red Sox in that the numbers provide comfort that Abreu would add more value against playoff pitchers than other 1B options.”
No, his 104 PAs against 3 cherry picked pitchers do nothing to inform us of his ability to hit playoff pitchers in general.
On a more general note, I do think it would be interesting to look into which types of hitters have more success than other hitters against top pitchers. I doubt there would be a ton of predictive value when looking at an individual batter, but I could see a lot of value in clustering hitters based on certain characteristics.
The only thing wrong in this analysis is that Martinez “would require some sacrifices on the roster.” Hanley Ramirez’s $22M option for 2019 vests with 591 PA, so they are highly motivated to denote him to a 10th player role, backing up or platooning at 1B and backing up DH and all three OF spots (via Martinez in LF). He can get 80 to 100 starts in that role. Meanwhile, the player who gets squeezed off the roster by adding both a DH and 1B is Deven Marrero, or Blake Swihart as a 3rd catcher (if he looks as good in ST as he did in winter ball, they probably trade Leon and give him the backup job). Even if they pass on the more expensive options for 1B, it’s hard to justify not re-signing Mitch Moreland to take Marrero’s roster spot.
One potential key to an Abreu trade to Boston is throwing the last year of James Shields’s bad contract into the deal. The White Sox are on the hook for about $12m of that, so by moving Abreu and Shields together, they free themselves of >$50m over the next two years as they continue their rebuild. Of course, this reduces the prospect/player load that goes back to Chicago but it certainly wouldn’t include JBJ who, as several have pointed out, doesn’t do the White Sox much good with only 3 years of control.
Bad teams with sub-$75M payrolls like the White Sox need prospects not salary dumps to become a good team. We (I’m a White Sox fan) don’t want to trade Shields for nothing. (Minute as it is, Shields has option value in that if he rebounds miraculously we could trade him for something at the ASB.) We, as Otter suggested, would want to take Hanley Ramirez’s contract so that we could possibly get both Groome & Chavis for Abreu.
Okay Shalesh, maybe you’re ready to risk $12m that Shields will be worth $16m in 2019, when the White Sox will still be playoff longshots, but I’m pretty sure that Jerry Reinsdorf didn’t make his fortune making those kinds of bets.
2018 is the last year of the Shields deal. 2019 is a team option for which the Padres will be paying the buyout.
Rodon is out until an unknown date. Kopech, assuming the same trajectory as he’s on, still won’t be coming up until probably July for service and Super Two reasons. Someone’s got to give them innings in the rotation, if they dumped Shields they’d still be paying for another vet to come in and pitch in his place.
I think it’s fair to assume that WSox interest in JBJ and RSox interest in Jose Abreu are unrelated. Especially considering trades *rarely* include major leaguers on both sides of the deal these days. If an article was written on every bad trade proposal on social media, we would have….a lot of articles.
What if Dombrowski included Betts as well? It would open up a spot to trade for Stanton provided Sox were willing to kick in some money.
Weak trolling attempt.
If Dombrowski traded both JBJ and Betts for Abreu, the Red Sox would fire him. Then they would hire him again just to fire him, perhaps in a more humiliating way. Then an angry mob of Red Sox fans would travel to Dombrowski’s residence and put it to the torch. Finally, Dombrowski’s wife and children would attempt to invoke power of attorney, claiming imminent self-harm.
Obviously Legeisc’s comment is not to be taken seriously. But, let’s say the Sox could/should get Stanton. If they made the Marlins eat some money, and agreed to send JBJ to the Marlins, does that make sense? And if so, how much of the nearly $300 million would the Sox expect the Marlins to cover? $100 million?
Considering it was meant to be a joke (though it has been deemed as not funny) about Dombrowski’s player evaluation skills, it should not be taken seriously.
IMO, it is hard to tell who is being sarcastic and serious when the context is that someone thinks the Giants can turn Christian Arroyo into Jackie Bradley Jr.
Ironically, I am a White Sox fan, and my first reaction to the trade talks was “I hope they don’t trade Abreu for some overrated Red Sox like JBJ”
Moreover, JBJ is 27 years old and will be a free agent in 3 years. There is little chance the White Sox are contenders in the next 2 years so JBJ is almost worthless to them. I can understand why he is valuable to the Red Sox, a team that is competing right now and values his CF defense, but he adds nothing to the White Sox when they are hoping to contend.
Can JDM really not learn first base?
My thoughts exactly. What’s the purpose of the defensive spectrum if a 6’3″ outfielder can’t learn to play 1B?
So the prospect package of Chavis, Travis, and another top 15-20 Red Sox prospect wouldn’t do it?
Here’s my thought on this:
The White Sox have no reason to move Abreu if they don’t get an offer to their liking. The pitchers had enormous trade value that could decline at any time, since pitchers get injured all the time.
But Abreu doesn’t have enormous surplus value because he’s more expensive on a year to year basis than either of their pitchers, with less team control, plus the whole league is devaluing 1B right now. Furthermore, his production is likely to be steady (unlike pitchers whose arms could fall off unexpectedly), and also does offer a lot of intangibles as a clubhouse leader (and as a person who can help the Cuban prospects navigate the big leagues).
Hahn has proven to be very patient when he thinks he’s being lowballed, so I don’t think he feels any pressure to move Abreu. He probably will be more interested in either trading or hammering out a long-term contract with Avisail Garcia.
I think Groome + Travis + some FV40 prospect would be enough to get it done, but I also don’t know if the Red Sox will offer that. Otherwise, I’d look to Cleveland, St. Louis, and Houston as possibilities instead…or for the White Sox keeping him.
I think the White Sox should take that deal if it is offered. Trading Abreu for another player who is late 20s and a free agent soon makes no sense, but Abreu also is unlikely to bring back a huge haul. A trade like that or one in which a team gives up 1 really good prospect and nothing else might be possible.
Why write 1,500 words on this inanity without even considering the White Sox’s perspective? I seriously doubt they want to trade 2 years of their best hitter for a player under control for 3 years, when it will probably take all 3 of those years to get back to competitive baseball. Bradley doesn’t fit their window anymore.
Why is JD Martinez an OF/DH? What’s the point of the defensive spectrum if “/DH” is attached to anybody who doesn’t play 1B? I’m going to start referring to Andrelton Simmons as SS/DH.
JD Martinez is bad enough defensively in the outfield that he would arguably improve his overall value/defensive value by being a DH. His overall defensive value last year was just about even with Nelson Cruz, who only played 5 games in the field.
Isn’t the best choice here for the Red Sox to cut or trade-for-nothing Hanley Ramirez? No more roster crunch. No need to dump Jackie Bradley. Sign JD Martinez and give him most of your DH bats.
Of course, but it is difficult to let go of sunk costs.
I think the current plan is to play him at first base and hope either (a) he provides decent production at first base or (b) he gets injured enough that his option doesn’t vest. While both might be too much to ask for, either one would be a good outcome for the Red Sox.
More generally, I think we agree that the Red Sox should not let Hanley Ramirez block a JD Martinez acquisition.
Of the options — sign Santana, Hosmer, Martinez — or trade Bradley for Abreu, the trade seems like the worst one. Hanley’s been a below average offensive player over the past 3 years, largely because of health. Keeping him in the lineup every day doesn’t seem like an worthwhile goal. I’d even sign someone like Nunez to fill in for Hanley/Pedroia/OF to keep Brentz off the field.
I would much rather have a legitimate superstar hitter than a superstar defensive OF. One is in short supply, one is not. This is an excellent example of WAR being the wrong tool to compare two completely different players.
thank you for writing this, there’s so many people on Red Sox sites and even their Prospect sites begging for the team to trade Jackie Bradley jr. When it’s obvious having his defense and occasional bat is instrumental to the teams Elite Outfield defense. Fellow Red Sox fans are blinded by homerun no matter what the age of the hitter or cost.
Another thing to consider is how soon do the Red Sox want to win? Casual fans may look at the ’17 team as being a ‘power hitter away’ from greater glory. Just sayin’. Of course the customer isn’t always right, when it comes to team construction. And that goes for the GM as well.