Doumit Facts

by
August 9, 2008

In looking at Brian McCann yesterday I found some interesting parallels between his numbers and those of Pirates backstop Ryan Doumit. Considering the definite lack of national attention thrust upon the Pirates it is pretty safe to say most of non-fantasy baseball playing fans have next to no idea who he is or what he has done this year. With that in mind, here are some Doumit facts:

  • In 75 games he is hitting .336/.377/.549
  • That .926 OPS ranks 11th best in the NL amongst those with 300+ PAs
  • His SLG ranks 12th best with those same parameters
  • He has an AB/HR rate of 23.8, which is in the same vicinity as David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovany Soto
  • His 2.18 REW is ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Braun, and Chase Utley
  • His 1.70 WPA/LI ranks ahead of Dan Uggla, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Derrek Lee
  • His 13.3% strikeout rate falls in the lowest twenty-five percent
  • His BABIP is a very high .356
  • That BABIP isn’t too crazy considering his 23.2% LD rate (.232+.120 = .352!)
  • His in-season Marcel estimates a .259/.336/.432 clip with six home runs to finish the year
  • That would end his season at .307/.361/.505, good for 18 HR and an .866 OPS

In other words, Doumit has put together a very solid line of stats that are due for a regression but will still look good at season’s end. Though most of the general public has no idea who he is, he has actually been better to date in numerous areas than several all-stars and MVP candidates.





 

Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

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Rajmond
16 years ago

Where did the equation LD% + .120 = xBABIP come from? It’s not a very good one, with all due respect. The difference between a line drive and any other ball in play is a little more than half a hit, so why is one extra line drive per hundred worth .010 points when it should be .005? The equation should be closer to (LD% – lgLD%) * .5 + lgBABIP. The equation you use seems to assume a line drive rate around 18% and a league BABIP around .300, so Doumit’s xBABIP should be about .326. It doesn’t matter too much around the mean, but at the extremes it can make a massive difference.

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