Draft Reviews: Chicago Cubs

by
May 27, 2009

2008 Draft Slot: 19th overall
Top Pick: Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian University
Best Pick: Jay Jackson, RHP, Furman University (9th round)
Keep an Eye On: Chris Carpenter, RHP, Kent State (3rd round)
Notes: Chris Carpenter has always had the stuff to make scouts drool, but a stream of constant injury concerns caused him to slip every year. He’s been healthy in pro ball so far and has the numbers to prove it, although he needs to be challenged and moved out of low-A. Jay Jackson was a two-way player in college, who has taken to full-time pitching like a fish to water. He’s already in double-A. Andrew Cashner had his greatest success in college as a reliever, but the Cubs have him back in the starting rotation. The results have not been pretty. Cashner can touch 99 mph with the fastball, but his control is not good at all.

2007 Draft Slot: Third overall
Top Pick: Josh Vitters, 3B, California high school
Best Pick: Josh Vitters
Worst Pick: Brandon Guyer, OF, University of Virginia (5th round)
Notes: There were three quality prep third basemen at the top of the 2007 draft and Josh Vitters was the second to go off the board (sandwiched between Mike Moustakas, 2nd overall, and Matt Dominguez, 12th overall). However, he struggled early and has fallen behind the other two. Vitters is making more noise in 2009 with a .355 average and 10 homers, but he’s also a level behind the pack. Luckily it’s a marathon, not a sprint. The Cubs’ second pick, catcher Josh Donaldson, helped land pitcher Rich Harden from the A’s in 2008.

2006 Draft Slot: 13th overall
Top Pick: Tyler Colvin, OF, Clemson University
Best Pick: Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Notre Dame University (Fifth round)
Worst Pick: Tyler Colvin
Notes: Everyone scratched their heads from the moment that the Cubs grabbed Tyler Colvin with the 13th overall pick and now everyone’s bald… no one has stopped scratching. Colvin spent 2008 in double-A and was demoted to high-A to begin 2009. He’s hitting .253 with one home run. The Cubs lacked 2nd to 4th round selections and then spent a boatload of money to sway Jeff Samardzija away from the National Football League. It looks like a smart move, but he may be better off as a reliever. Time will tell.

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2009 Draft Slot: 31st overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College for the most part
MLB Club Need: Second base, Third base, Catcher
Organizational Need: Left-handed pitching, Left field, Right field, First base
Organizational Strength: Third base, Shortstop
Notes: The club does not pick until 31st overall, so it’s almost impossible to know who is going to be there, especially in this draft where no one is even sure who’s in the mix for No. 2 overall. The Cubs could look to someone like James Paxton, who would immediately become the best left-handed pitcher in the system. He’s a college starter that can hit the high 90s, but his numbers have not been good this year – so he could slide to them. Paxton is a high risk, high reward player (but a much better bet than Colvin).





 

Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

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Tony
14 years ago

I’m curious how Brandon Guyer is the worst pick from the 2007 draft? He’s struggled badly in AA, and the Cubs might’ve been better off sending him to Daytona and slowly working him up, but he was productive in Peoria last year, ARL wasn’t bad, and was looked at as a possible breakout candidate this year. It hasn’t happened yet, and it may not happen, but considering the attrition rates, I honestly don’t see what the justification is behind naming him the worst pick from 2007 outside of a kneejerk reaction to his struggles this year. He’s a typical Wilken tools pick, a mid-round gamble hoping for the best.

As for Colvin, one thing to remember is that, twas the night before the draft, most reports suggested he’d be a first rounder (IIRC, White Sox were linked to him). Cubs just took him a half-round earlier than expected, as Wilken had said in interviews that he just didn’t trust some of the options there. Another note is that he was rehabbing this year, not really demoted to double A. He did finish last year strong. That said, that’s sugercoating it. He’s had enough time in Daytona that he should be raking in Daytona. He had an injury that knocked him out a few games and all the postponements didn’t help, but at some point, you’ve got to get it going a bit.

I still don’t know if I buy Cashner as a starter, but he did have an excellent outing the other night.

In terms of this upcoming draft, my gut feeling says it’ll be closer to 2007 than 2008. We went heavy on arms in 08, and in 07, we went positional. That said, I think the first round pick would likely be a BPA nod. What the club needs is power, arms and hitting. We’re starting to see some arm depth develop in the Cubs system, with Jay Jackson, Casey Coleman, Dan McDaniel, Ryan Searle (all 4 were also aggressively pushed), but more could be used. Positionally, I’m hardpressed to call 3rd base a strength, as there’s really only Vitters and questions. I really like Jovan Rosa, but he’s likely a first baseman, and has been in slump to start the year. C is alright, with Soto in the bigs and Clevenger at AAA. Castillo has tools and is at AA, Flores was a pick last year in High A, and Brenly is in Low A. 2nd base is pretty deep in options system wise, with Tony Thomas, Ryan Flaherty, Junior Lake, Dwayne Kemp, Josh Harrison, Jake Opitz. SS is a bit weaker, but Darwin Barney has been excellent in AA this year, and Starlin Castro has been solid in Daytona after a 3 level jump. Hak-ju Lee and a couple other assets in XST hold some intrigue. OF could use more upside talent, as there’s too many Jim Adduci’s and Ty Wright’s in the mix. Guyer and Rundle have struggled. Burke has finally had a good season, but let’s see him do it a level higher. At first, Rebel Ridling has a great name, but has been up and down this year, and Jovan Rosa has to get his bat going. Jericho Jones is an OF/1st mix that could be a factor later in the year.

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Tony
14 years ago
Reply to  Tony

Oh, one guy I would watch draft wise would be Alex Wilson. Cubs drafted him in the 10th round last year, but didn’t get him signed. Wilken follows his guys and repeats picks (Cashner, Marquez Smith come to mind), and for the most part, Wilson seems to have had a solid year. I know few have him as a late first round option, and more of a sandwich option, but at that point, I wouldn’t be stunned if the Cubs took a guy they liked over if it’s only a few slots difference.

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