Draft Reviews: Seattle Mariners
2008 Draft Slot: 20th overall
Top Pick: Joshua Fields, RHP, University of Georgia
Best Pick: Brett Lorin, RHP, Long Beach State (Fifth round)
Keep an Eye On: Aaron Pribanic, RHP, University of Nebraska (Third round)
Notes: This draft was not overly exciting, especially with the use of a first-round pick on a college senior, who could end up topping out as a set-up man. It also took far too long to get Joshua Fields under contract. He currently has a 6.00 ERA (although a 3.20 FIP) with nine walks and 15 Ks in 10 Double-A games. Brett Lorin is absolutely dealing in low A-ball with a 1.00 ERA (2.53 FIP) in six starts. He has a nice repertoire and good size (6’7”, 245 lbs) and could develop into a No. 3 starter.
2007 Draft Slot: 11th overall
Top Pick: Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Quebec (Canada) high school
Best Pick: Phillippe Aumont
Worst Pick: Matt Mangini, 3B, Oklahoma State University (Supplemental first round)
Notes: Seattle received some flack for moving Phillippe Aumont into the bullpen so early in his career, but he has absolutely thrived since the move and is dominating in a very, very good hitter’s league. He could be in Double-A before too long – and he’s only 20 years old. Clubs knew Matt Mangini had below-average power for a third baseman, but he was supposed to hit for a high average. His career minor league batting average is .240.
Bonus: My 2007 pre-draft interview with Phillippe Aumont, who really thought he was getting drafted by the Washington Nationals.
2006 Draft Slot: Fifth overall
Top Pick: Brandon Morrow, RHP, University of California
Best Pick: Chris Tillman, RHP, California high school (Second round)
Worst Pick: Tony Butler, LHP, Wisconsin high school (Third round)
Notes: The organization has selected three right-handed relievers with its last three first-round selections, although all three have the potential to be big-league closers. In fact, Brandon Morrow already is the Mariners’ late-game stopper. With Morrow seemingly out of the starting rotation for good, right-hander Chris Tillman has a chance to overtake him as the best pitcher from the draft. Unfortunately, Tillman was sent to Baltimore in the ill-fated Erik Bedard trade. Tony Butler’s career has been littered with injuries, but luckily he was also sent to Baltimore.
2009 Draft Slot: Second overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Pitchers… college arms… relievers…
MLB Club Need: Third base, First base, Starting pitching
Organizational Need: Starting pitching, Left-handed pitching, First base, Second base
Organizational Strength: Outfield (especially center), Third base, Catcher
Notes: Obviously, the organization would love to have San Diego State hurler Stephen Strasburg fall to them, but that is highly unlikely to happen. There is no clear second-overall pick, although a lot of clubs are high on CF/1B Dustin Ackley. The club can really add depth to the system with this draft since it also owns the 27th overall pick, as well as the first pick of the supplemental first round (Both of which come from Raul Ibanez’ signing with Philadelphia).
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Calling Butler a bad pick is a bit harsh. As far as the scouting process goes, Butler was an absolute triumph. He was sitting in the mid-80’s until late in his senior year, when his fastball jumped up to 92-95. If you’re focused only on results, I guess it makes sense, but on talent Butler was a steal in the third round.
Is catcher really an organizational strength anymore? Adam Moore is doing well, and though Jeff Clement isn’t doing to well in AAA right now, I’m sure he’ll turn it around. But Rob Johnson hasn’t shown anything special in his time with the big club (he has actually shown that he can’t hit worth a lick), and Kenji Johjima is obviously on the decline.
If the draft were today, I’d be happy with Jack and Co. if they took Ackley.
As long as Ackley’s arm is OK and he can play center, I’d be quite happy taking him at No. 2.
Yes, I forgot to qualify. If the M’s plan on using him as a 1B, then I don’t see taking him 2nd, as quality 1B can be had in later rounds.
It’s possible to find a guy who can hit enough to be a major league 1B in later rounds, but it’s not as easy as the post above suggests. As a CF, Ackley’s a slam dunk for the #2 pick. As a 1B, he’s still the best all-around college hitter in the draft. I’m not entirely off the Grant Green bandwagon, but with all the questions his JR season has raised, Ackley’s still my choice for #2 even if the team decides he’s a 1B.
Grant Green is not a good option at #2. Or #10 for that matter.
Reasonable evaluators disagree on Green.
Aumont’s an interesting case. He was unbelieveably raw when he was drafted, as you’d expect for a guy who’d only been pitching for 4 years. But more than that, he’s listed as having been drafted out of high school. While that’s true (he’d been in high school before getting drafted), his high school didn’t have a baseball team.
How anyone knew who this guy was (or how he developed) I have no idea.
He played on several travel teams that went up against good USA competition. He was pretty highly touted for a while by scouts who had seen him in person.
Evan,
You have to understand that in Canada we don’t have high school sports in most school. And even in the few schools that offer sports program it’s not elite program. We have travelling teams who played inter-city league. And for the top players they travels with a team that goes to the US and played some good competitions, high schools mostly. Russel Martin and Eric Gagne amongst others went through this program to reach the bigs…
At my Canadian high school (more than a few years back, granted) we had school teams for soccer (boys and girls), basketball (boys and girls), rugby (boys), and field hockey (girls). Equipment-intensive sports weren’t a priority (if field hockey sticks didn’t last almost forever it probably would’ve been dropped), and neither were sports that were served by outside leagues (like hockey, lacrosse, or baseball — which was pretty much their order of importance, also).
2006 #1 pick Brandon Morrow will *please* no longer be the Mariners’ closer after today’s game. Obligatory Tim Lincecum comments removed. Nice fastball Brandon. He’s just few more of those away from being a character in a Bruce Springsteen song.