Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 10/17/13
by Eno Sarris
October 17, 2013
| 12:40 |
: Hope you guys show! Sorry for being late. Sick. Tough morning.
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| 12:56 |
: Gonna get going! Not many of us today!
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| 12:56 |
Hi Eno! Sorry no one is here |
| 12:56 |
: It’s not your fault! You’re here!
|
| 12:56 |
Please don’t be dead, Eno |
| 12:56 |
: Just bronchitis.
|
| 12:56 |
Any wasted craft brews in the tigers celebration? |
| 12:56 |
: All non-alcoholic terrible-smelling champagne.
|
| 12:56 |
I’m right there with you today Eno! Staying home from class because I’m sick |
| 12:56 |
: let’s roll up in front of the tv with some soup then.
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| 12:56 |
it’s not the quantity.. it’s the quality.. |
| 12:57 |
: Motion/ocean.
|
| 12:57 |
I’m here! |
| 12:57 |
: Good news.
|
| 12:57 |
What are the Braves gonna do with papa Uggs and BJ? Huddy? I assume McCann has his bags already packed… |
| 12:58 |
: I actually don’t assume that about McCann — Gattis might be better in the role he’s in — but they have some decisions to make. I bet they let Hudson go. They’ll look hard at cutting Uggla, and they’ll give BJ a chance to get it back, they have to. Cutting Uggla coesn’t cost them as bad.
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| 12:58 |
Young man, these chats are not just something you can show up to when you feel like it. Now I’m sorry if you’re not feeling well, but I’m going to need to see a note from your guardian to excuse this. Baseball fans depend on you and you don’t want to let them down do you? Ok, now run along to 3rd period. |
| 12:58 |
Are we not men? We are Eno! |
| 12:58 |
: Chided interlude.
|
| 12:58 |
Do you read the community blog? I’m asking for selfish reasons. |
| 12:59 |
: Yes! I agree that the projections on Harper might be too mellow.
|
| 12:59 |
What are the odds of the Dodgers winning the next two in St. Louis? Slim to none? |
| 12:59 |
: Well the next one is Kershaw, so that doesn’t seem crazy at all. But both, yeah the odds aren’t great.
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| 12:59 |
Hey we all have problems, like a baseball chat starting late, we don’t want to here about yours. Give us answers. |
| 12:59 |
: But there’s no question here.
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| 12:59 |
I read your closer article at rotoworld and was a little surprised you put Holland in the top tier. I don’t see him being in the same class as Kimbrel, Chapman or Jansen. |
| 1:00 |
: It’s all about the command, I agree that he’s probably the shakiest inclusion. But Chapman once had questions about his command. And he’s had worries about his elbow too. Holland had a great season.
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| 1:00 |
Instead of going with a postseason anthem every commercial break, we just decided to go with ads for TBS’ new comedy “Ground Floor.” Cool? |
| 1:00 |
: Ice pick. Ear.
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| 1:01 |
Jim Leyland = Genius.. Moving a guy with 18 K’s out of the lead off spot for game four of the LCS.. |
| 1:01 |
: There aren’t too many things that guy gets wrong though.
|
| 1:01 |
what are the arguments against “clutch”. To elaborate, isn’t there something to the idea that certain players can be more calm under stressful, higher leverage, situations? |
| 1:03 |
: The argument isn’t that it can’t exist, the argument is that we haven’t been able to show it in the numbers. In other words, there’s very little year to year correlation in clutch. And part of that might be ‘getting older.’ For example — Barry Bonds was not clutch, he couldn’t buy a hit in the postseason, then he won two straight games with walkoff homers against the Braves in the postseason and we stopped hearing about how unclutch he was. Small samples in extreme, especially postseason, situations. And players evolve and get more comfortable in those situations and skew the numbers.
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| 1:03 |
who is Soleil Moon Frye and why should anyone care if she’s having a baby boy? |
| 1:03 |
: Don’t you say a bad thing about Punky Brewster. Don’t you do it.
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| 1:03 |
better fantasy option next year: Bogaerts or Profat? |
| 1:04 |
: Gotta watch the offseason. Do the Red Sox re-sign Drew? Do the Rangers trade Profar to the Rays for Price? If both of them had jobs, I might take Profar actually. Profar can add in all five categories, Bogaerts doesn’t have a ton of speed.
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| 1:04 |
Does Fangraphs carry postseason statistics? |
| 1:04 |
: It doesn’t now in leaderboard form. It does on the player pages when you select ‘show postseason.’
|
| 1:04 |
Will MooseTacos bounce back next year? My fantasy team needs it |
| 1:05 |
: He makes contact, and in the second half, he didn’t hit fly balls at such an extreme rate. If he gets the GB/FB to a more manageable level, I could see a .270/20+ season from him next year. Deep leaguer.
|
| 1:05 |
Fredi G made comments that the Braves need an ace. While I may not agree, who could you see them targeting? |
| 1:06 |
: Not too many options. Tanaka really the only free agent ace out there. Available in trade are David Price and Jeff Samardzija, and if Samardzija costs a lot less, I might go that route. Otherwise they have to go for a reclamation project ace like Tim Lincecum or Josh Johnson (gah).
|
| 1:07 |
Is there a unifying theme to Winter seasonals? |
| 1:07 |
: Usually thicker, sometimes spicier. You’ll see a lot of chocolate and coffee stouts, for example.
|
| 1:07 |
What are the best websites for intelligent fantasy basketball and or sabermetric NBA analysis? |
| 1:07 |
: I like HoopData for stats, and their writing is good if a bit sparse. The True Hoop network on ESPN has a lot of good writers.
|
| 1:08 |
Holland has benefitted from a surprisingly low HR% |
| 1:08 |
: Well there’s his park, and then there’s the small sample, but I’m mostly gigging off his K and BB numbers.
|
| 1:08 |
If the Yanks don’t get McCann, who do they target for behind the plate? |
| 1:09 |
: There’s Pierzynski… Salty if the Red Sox don’t sign him. Kurt Suzuki I bet will be out there. You know, given their limited offensive upside as a group, that’s not a terrible group.
|
| 1:09 |
The lack of depth, especially in the NLCS, seems surprising — Matheny pretty much had nothing to work with to sustain the rally last night — but is it actually (ie. is there usually a correlation between depth and wins?)? Other than carrying Miller when it seems clear they won’t use him, any obvious mistakes in their roster construction? |
| 1:11 |
: I did a lot of work for my piece on NL dept this year, and if I do that work for a few more seasons, maybe I can answer that. I think depth is something that wins you games during the season (think A’s), but is a ‘last piece’ thing and if you don’t expect to be in the postseason every year, you don’t always have the luxury of thinking about depth. Also, depth in the pitching staff is always good, but depth on the bench (the Dodgers have it, the Cards don’t) doesn’t always help much. There’s a pinch-hitter penalty (10% worse off the bench), and you only get 2-3 PA out of them if your starters are healthy.
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| 1:11 |
Do the Royals need SS depth with the down year from Escobar? |
| 1:12 |
: Nah, his defense is good enough to just be thankful of whatever offense you get, IMO. I don’t think he’s a problem.
|
| 1:12 |
Hughes to Padres? |
| 1:12 |
: Makes sense. I guess you could put him in the reclamation project bin for the Braves too. NL team for sure.
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| 1:13 |
Does what Rosenthal has done in the postseason send his ranking up a couple of tiers? 100% job security and he is at least 2nd tier maybe first. |
| 1:13 |
: I can’t give him first tier until he’s earned some leash. Which a postseason can do, but he won’t debut in the top tier, just can’t do it with Motte coming back. Love love love his peripherals.
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| 1:13 |
Do advanced fielding metrics give credit (or penalize) to a fielder for his positioning before the play? For instance, if I as a fielder slide over 3 feet to the left and that’s what caused me to not get to a ball that other fielders would have, am I discredited for not making the play or is it neutral since from where I started I could not have made the play? |
| 1:15 |
: All credit for the play goes to the player, but positioning isn’t normally accounted for unless a shift is on. So if the player takes a few steps to his left or right and makes or doesn’t make the play based on that movement, then it’s on him. But if the shortstop is in right field and makes a play there, he doesn’t get credit as if he started from shortstop. Does that make sense?
|
| 1:15 |
Favorite Tofu meal/sandwich |
| 1:15 |
: Only one I really like: crispy fried orange sauce tofu.
|
| 1:15 |
Scherzer to the Braves would make some sense… |
| 1:15 |
: I don’t see the Tigers trading him unless they win.
|
| 1:15 |
Punky Brewster got hot |
| 1:15 |
: “got”
|
| 1:15 |
But when Leyland does something wrong, it’s a Jose Valverde sized mistake. |
| 1:15 |
: whooo baby. Well, he did eventually find Benoit.
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| 1:15 |
I won my Otto league despite having a 67 dollar braun. Just allow me to gloat for a minute |
| 1:15 |
Tofu? Get outta here! |
| 1:16 |
The puppy (pita.. peet for short).. is doing well.. has become a constant companion.. has chewed up only my wife’s shoes.. good puppy… |
| 1:16 |
: Weird lude guys. Weird day.
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| 1:17 |
Can Pinto sneak into the top 15 catchers next season? |
| 1:18 |
: Crazy BABIP, bad K rate, inconsistent track record for power. Top 15 maybe, but doubt top 12. I might pencil him in for a .250 BA and 15 homers.
|
| 1:18 |
if dodgers get lucky and make WS wouuld u start kershaw 3 games? |
| 1:18 |
: I’d start him 7 games.
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| 1:18 |
mlb.tv’s “companion coverage” of the playoffs is most hilariously useless thing ever. I wish I could hear the negotiations that led to it existing. “Sure, you guys can stream live video, but you can’t include any production value whatsoever.” |
| 1:18 |
: Yeah, keep them on the TV, watching the ads.
|
| 1:18 |
Anyone not interested in this is [insert insult]. http://mentalfloss.com/article/53216/mental-floss-exclusive-our-interview-bill-watterson |
| 1:18 |
one time i had a sore throat and though maybe a sour would be a good choice in that situation, which was grossly incorrect for multiple values of the word gross |
| 1:18 |
Ever go on Reddit? There was a good thread there the other day about the worst beers people have tried. http://www.reddit.com/r/beer/comments/1oknaf/the_worst_beers_youve_ever_tried/ |
| 1:18 |
— made a big old pot of Hungarian Vegetable soup… very tasty… |
| 1:19 |
: I’m not sure I can use all of this in my sick day, but at least some of it is useful to me.
|
| 1:19 |
Is it just me, or do the cardinals, the braves, and their respective fanbases appear to be engaged in a race to alienate all other baseball fans? It seems deliberate at this point. |
| 1:19 |
: All fanbases have trolls.
|
| 1:19 |
is ryu going to be same/better/worse next season compared to his season this year? |
| 1:20 |
: You know, I was really wrong about him. His arm speed is the same on all of his pitches, his command is good, his change is great, and he can make it work. That said, I’d put the over/under on his ERA next season at 3.50, so that means he’s going to be a bit worse. None of his pitches, other than the change, have better than average whiff rates, so you can’t project a better K%. BB% was great, GB% was good. Hard to make those much better.
|
| 1:20 |
Thoughts on all the good pitchers that came into the league last year and had little to no trouble adjusting to mlb hitters? Seems when drafting prospects the safer route used to be taking advanced hitters but now I’m not do sure. Coincidence, or some sort of improvement in the way teams are developing pitchers? |
| 1:22 |
: The league is for sure for sure going younger at starting pitching, and that’s led to a higher league velocity and probably has something to do with the better K%s from pitchers. If you have stuff, you can get by with stuff for a couple of years before your velocity starts to go a bit, and by then you can learn to pitch. Buying an ‘advanced hitter’ is buying too much into an environment — do you trust that the advanced hitter saw advanced pitching, and how did he do in those situations, and is your sample too small by the time you get to that point in your analysis?
|
| 1:22 |
Are you more likely to watch Mob City or Ground Floor? |
| 1:23 |
: Mob City, but I like funny movies.
|
| 1:23 |
How many things were wrong with this ESPN Stats & Info tweet from yesterday: “Torii Hunter has not batted leadoff for his team since September 24, 2000. In 25 career games from the leadoff spot, he is hitting .164.” |
| 1:23 |
Am I crazy to think Gerrit Cole will be a top 5 pitcher next year, not taking innings into consideration? |
| 1:24 |
: I don’t think he’ll have too much of a limit either, he pitched 180+ innings this year. I love him next year. I’d give him a 8+ K/9 with the increased use of his offspeed stuff. I don’t see the need for his walk rate to regress a ton. A similar line to this year, with more Ks, makes him a top 20 pitcher easy. Top 10 maybe. It’ll take a bit of luck to get into the top 5, but it usually does anyway.
|
| 1:24 |
Is there a way for the dodgers to trade for price w/o giving up seager? |
| 1:25 |
: I don’t think they’ll be first in line for Price.
|
| 1:25 |
Hey, on Fox they just replace the ads for “Ground Floor” with ads for a series that was racist and unfunny enough to get a 0% on Rotten Tomatoes! To summarize, this year is about equal with the year that every commercial break was announced by WRITTEN IN THE STARS A MILLION MILES AWAY |
| 1:25 |
Hey what about that Aunt Betty’s Ginger Brown Cinnamon Pomegranite Nut Wheat Sassafrass Vinegar Hash Tuttifrutti October Humdinger Ale? |
| 1:25 |
Price to the Braves. |
| 1:25 |
What do you think about streaming pitchers in fantasy baseball, strategic or cheap? |
| 1:25 |
: Anything in the rules is strategy. That’s what I think!
|
| 1:26 |
If the Braves let Huddy go, he probably retires. I would be surprised if they parted with his veteran leadership. |
| 1:26 |
: Then maybe they trade for an ace. Because if you put Huddy back in that rotation, you’ve got a bit of a ‘surplus’ if that exists with pitching.
|
| 1:26 |
Donaldson more real than not? At least solidy startable next year, right? |
| 1:27 |
: More real than not. Top 12 3B for sure. I can believe in a .280/.360 avg/obp, and I think 25 HR is doable again. He’s just doing what he did in his better years in the minors.
|
| 1:27 |
Took a brewery tour of Sierra Nevada and the wort aroma was the best thing I’ve ever smelled. Good god I love beer. |
| 1:27 |
Is “Profat” Prince Fielder’s new nickname? |
| 1:27 |
Jim Leyland Batted Ramon Santiago (53 wRC+, .283 OBP) and Ryan Raburn (27 wRC+, .226 OBP) in the 2 spot last year consistently because they are “fast.” |
| 1:28 |
: Okay we’re hitting a bit of a stride here.
|
| 1:28 |
Isn’t Price kinda overrated? Doesn’t really get a ton of whiffs…. |
| 1:28 |
: It is strange. It’s like he’s traded whiffs for ground balls but his GB rate is only average. Great command, but velocity is starting to go. I dunno, he’d look pretty awesome in the NL.
|
| 1:28 |
Have I asked yet this month for you to whisper some sweet nothings for Rizzo’s dynasty owners? Owning him is like dating the bad boy; all potential goodness. |
| 1:29 |
: Hey man his peripherals all stayed the same or got better! He’ll be my low-cost 1B next year in a lot of leagues. 18% K rate? .200 ISO? Yes please.
|
| 1:29 |
Is alex cobb better than matt moore cause of his command. I mean look at the walk rates? |
| 1:30 |
: Moore has the velocity, but he’s losing it. He’s complained of elbow soreness. If I want one next year, it’s Cobb. Even though his FB is 90, 91.
|
| 1:30 |
Any idea what Oakland does with their OF this offseason? Seems like someone needs to go. |
| 1:30 |
: I doubt they pick up Young’s option. Maybe they pick up Choice next year, and work him in. If Reddick is as bad as he was, then Choice will take more of his at-bats. Choice’s D is pretty good.
|
| 1:30 |
I know he’s in decline, but Teixeira is a keeper at $7 in 4×4 right? |
| 1:30 |
: Yes.
|
| 1:31 |
I have 15 followers, so this didn’t work as a trivia question on Twitter, but let’s see how chatters do: Name the 3 players with PA>=3000, OBP>=.400, and ISO |
| 1:31 |
: Wait ISO over what?
|
| 1:31 |
Looking at the Contract Crowsourcing, What do you think of Lincecum? He has a massive home run problem in SF and it isn’t like that would get better anywhere., |
| 1:32 |
: 1/14. QO from SF to rebound.
|
| 1:32 |
why’d that cut off? ISO under 200 |
| 1:32 |
: ooh. Under 200! interesting!
|
| 1:32 |
% chance Brad Ziegler closes for AZ next year? |
| 1:32 |
: He worked on his changeup, and I have an interview I’ll publish this offseason that was interesting, but I still am nervous about him vs a lefty, and his K% isn’t really closer like. I’ll call it 40%.
|
| 1:33 |
Carl Crawford is having a massive playoffs. Top 30 of next year? |
| 1:34 |
: Crawford still not stealing bases (stupid applet), and you don’t really own him for power. Could he go .275/15/20 next year? Sure. That’s probably right on the cusp of top 30 in the OF.
|
| 1:34 |
: Wait, what happened to my Ziegler answer?
|
| 1:34 |
Ziegler A still showing here, “He worked on his changeup, and I have an interview I’ll publish this offseason that was interesting, but I still am nervous about him vs a lefty, and his K% isn’t really closer like. I’ll call it 40%.” |
| 1:34 |
: Ok, well, then that’s fine.
|
| 1:34 |
Trivia Question: Ichiro |
| 1:35 |
Mauer |
| 1:35 |
1. Ichiro 2. Jeter 3. Rollins |
| 1:35 |
Votto? |
| 1:35 |
: I don’t think Ichiro has the OBP. I think it’s … oh there’s the answer.
|
| 1:35 |
Mauer is right; he’s the only active player |
| 1:36 |
so still 2 retired players to get |
| 1:36 |
Raines |
| 1:36 |
Rickey Henderson |
| 1:36 |
Henderson is #2. Raines career .385 OBP |
| 1:36 |
Whose going to lead the league in OBP in 14? |
| 1:37 |
: Votto. Easy.
|
| 1:37 |
juan pierre if you squint at his OBP and make it real blurry like |
| 1:37 |
How were the beergraphs region’s decided upon seem somewhat arbitrary? And as a resident of the middle Atlantic I initially found the term industrial derogatory but I go over it, great tool. |
| 1:38 |
: Every regional breakdown has flaws. We found a semi-standard one to start things off, and are open for discussion on the topic. It’s not perfect, and regional availability is the toughest thing for us to do anyway.
|
| 1:38 |
Who are some of your favorite non-fg family baseball scribes? Any good rays or marlins writers. Just moved florida from nebraksa. Go CORNHUSKERS! |
| 1:39 |
: Jason Collette, R.J. Anderson, Tommy Rancel for Rays. I like Jong for the Marlins (on SBN).
|
| 1:39 |
ty cobb |
| 1:39 |
Morgan |
| 1:39 |
What sort of time frame on this question? Cobb I’m sure did it, but I feel like there’d be more old guys that did it too. |
| 1:39 |
Cobb was in the HOF for 25 years by 1961. Morgan career .392 OBP |
| 1:39 |
Will the Braves seek a 2Bman this year. Trade Uggla? |
| 1:40 |
: If you’re talking about signing a 2B to trade Uggla, you’re talking about Brian Roberts, Nick Punto, Kelly Johnson or Robinson Cano. I actually think Uggla will be back at second next year.
|
| 1:40 |
expansion era (61-pres) |
| 1:42 |
Tommy la Stella starting at 2B in Atlanta next year. |
| 1:43 |
: He was a bit old for his level last year, so I’m not sure he’s as great of a prospect as his numbers make him. But he could be the utility infielder if he has a good spring, and he could push Uggla off second by the end of the year.
|
| 1:43 |
Who would you choose for you All-Defense team? |
| 1:43 |
: Beltre, Simmons, hmmm…
|
| 1:44 |
: Was going to say Zobrist, but Pedroia is great.
|
| 1:44 |
: I’ll take Belt actually.
|
| 1:45 |
: cf: gomez. and I’ll fill the rest of the OF with Trout and Ellsbury.
|
| 1:45 |
Gattis! (In LF of course!!) |
| 1:45 |
: Oh boy.
|
| 1:45 |
trivia answer, 3rd guy not Gwynn? |
| 1:45 |
WADE BOGGS! |
| 1:45 |
Gwynn or Boggs |
| 1:45 |
Rod Carew |
| 1:45 |
Yep, Boggs |
| 1:45 |
: Ding ding ding.
|
| 1:45 |
Answers: Mauer .405 OBP, .145 ISO; Henderson .401 OBP, .140 ISO; Boggs .415 OBP, .115 ISO |
| 1:46 |
Do you think that Taijuan Walker breaks camp with the Mariners next season or do they keep him in the minors for a few months. |
| 1:46 |
: If their GM is still there, I think Walker and Paxton are in, Saunders is out.
|
| 1:46 |
Is Mike Zunino a serviceable fantasy catcher next year? |
| 1:46 |
: More likely in OBP leagues.
|
| 1:47 |
Trevor Bauer and the Orioles coaching staff are confused about the concept of “developing pitchers.” |
| 1:47 |
i want to hire hscer for my marketing department. guy (assuming gender) has gotten word out about his article in community blog better, and cheaper, than anyone else who shows up in these spheres… |
| 1:47 |
And why can’t you be more like Mr. Cistulli? |
| 1:48 |
: Hey now we’re getting a little testy in our interludes.
|
| 1:48 |
Where is Curtis Granderson going? |
| 1:48 |
: The other New York team? I have a feeling this Choo love is going to price them out of their prized acquisition, and they’ll take Grandy for cheaper (!) which might make sense because of injury, but Grandy probably has a little more upside.
|
| 1:49 |
What’s more important for a pitcher’s fastball: Big dick velocity or movement & control? |
| 1:49 |
: Well I don’t know what his pelvis velocity has to do with it, but we have a great piece on this in the community blog. Looks like velocity isn’t super important… until you get to around 94 mph. Anything over that is a big deal.
|
| 1:49 |
Roy Halladay. 🙁 |
| 1:50 |
: Reclamation ace? I don’t think so. I did a piece showing that people his age, just going on DL for shoulder issues meant that you’d be lucky to have 50+ more IP in the rest of your career. And he had surgery.
|
| 1:50 |
Anyone play fantasy baseball with minor league players? |
| 1:51 |
: I think half of my 12 leagues have minor league players. You might like ottoneu.
|
| 1:51 |
Jonathan Schoop to Atlanta for a pitcher? |
| 1:51 |
: They might need him to play second in Baltimore. And I don’t think he’d bring back a top-end starter or anything.
|
| 1:51 |
yeah jono, but there are 6 people here |
| 1:51 |
How serious was that comment, jono? |
| 1:51 |
Nick Johnson just missed the cut btw. 3300PA 173 ISO 399 OBP soooooo close |
| 1:52 |
Billy “quick feet” Hamilton worth starting? What about in a second utility? H2H points league |
| 1:52 |
: I think he’ll be their CF next year, but he’ll go super early in drafts. People will dream on his SB totals.
|
| 1:52 |
I mean with exclusively minor league players and counting only minor league stats! |
| 1:53 |
: Oh! That’s different! what a huge player pool! seems daunting.
|
| 1:53 |
Factoring in the money, how would you rank FA OFers Cruz, Granderson, Beltran and Choo? |
| 1:54 |
: Choo, Beltran, Grandy, Cruz, but if Choo’s money gets anywhere near his agent’s posturing, push him down past Grandy. I like Choo, but I’ve seen some degrading in his peripherals going into this year, and one great year in a hitting ballpark doesn’t dissuade me of that.
|
| 1:54 |
Rank in order of most to least likely, who will take a largely DH role in 2014: Cabrera, Fielder, Jeter, Davis, Moss. |
| 1:54 |
: Move Jeter behind Davis and you got it.
|
| 1:54 |
: (I don’t think the A’s will ever have a primary DH).
|
| 1:55 |
Where is Halladay going? |
| 1:55 |
: LA?
|
| 1:55 |
What’s the highest-leverage aspect to be good at in fantasy: draft, in season waiver wire, keeper strategy, or offseason research? |
| 1:56 |
: Great question. I think offseason research / draft / keeper strategy is kind of one area. But the draft is where it all goes down, the draft is what I focus on, so I’ll answer draft. then research.
|
| 1:56 |
What happens with Detroit’s rotation, do you see anyone being traded in the off-season? |
| 1:56 |
: I think too much depends on if they win the world series or not. If they don’t, I’d expect anyone under contract to be back.
|
| 1:57 |
Have you seen Tanaka? Is he really a potential “ace” if he comes to the states? |
| 1:57 |
: Video only. Looks like a legit splitter and good control. Not as good as Yu though.
|
| 1:57 |
If Choo is too expensive and Alderson doesn’t want to part with too many pitching prospects, how do the Mets plan to get a potent offense by opening day 2014? |
| 1:57 |
: Abreu and a middle-tier OF?
|
| 1:58 |
So our company had Kool and the Gang play at our annual employee meeting. Lamer for our company or the band? |
| 1:58 |
: Band. Company scored decently.
|
| 1:58 |
What is the highest leverage value and the situation in which it occurs? |
| 1:59 |
: Dunno! Tie runner in scoring position, bottom of the ninth? That way you’re losing but you can swing it to winning?
|
| 1:59 |
Problem with doing a minor-league fantasy game is that if you do really well, you’ll lose all your players. Or is that part of the game OH GOD I WANT TO PLAY |
| 1:59 |
Puig boom or bust in 2014? |
| 1:59 |
: I like him for a .270ish BA at worst. 25+ homers, 15+ stolen bases. I see these as baselines, because he’s shown these skills.
|
| 1:59 |
What can you draw from SSS in the AZFL? Would a productive season there be enough to make you think Tyler Austin’s unproductive AA season was because of the wrist injury. |
| 2:00 |
: Can’t go overboard. Mostly what I take from the AFL is that the team still thinks highly of the player to send them there.
|
| 2:00 |
Should the Mets take advantage of the Yankees sucking and try to steal market share by getting really really good? |
| 2:00 |
: Uh, the Mets should probably just try to be good every year lol.
|
| 2:01 |
4 players all time 400 obp and under 100 iso – should I just say, or should people try to guess? |
| 2:01 |
: Tell us
|
| 2:01 |
Puig or Cespedes next year? |
| 2:01 |
: Very close but Puig is younger, so I think he’ll steal more. And Puig hasn’t yet K’ed that much (but really could)
|
| 2:01 |
Max Bishop, Eddie Stanky, Roy Thomas, and Eddie Collins |
| 2:01 |
: EDDIE STANKY
|
| 2:01 |
Dan Szymborski recently said Trout’s peak may be 11-12 WAR. Thoughts? |
| 2:01 |
: I don’t see why not.
|
| 2:02 |
Most recent player on that list, and he retired 60 years ago. |
| 2:02 |
: People just don’t value the no-pop patience guy.
|
| 2:02 |
who do you see as “sleeper” bounceback candidates among pitchers next year? maybe Jason Hammel? |
| 2:04 |
: Nah, he’s back to who he was. Lemme see. Jeff Samardzija. Justin Verlander. Matt Cain. Ian Kennedy to a lesser extent.
|
| 2:04 |
Either that or it’s just impossible to get on base that often without being a power threat nowadays. You’d basically have to be an Ichiro who walks more. |
| 2:04 |
Rank these pitchers for 2014: Ryu, Shelby Miller, Fister, Liriano, and Medlen. |
| 2:05 |
: Miller, Liriano, Ryu, Medlen, Fister.
|
| 2:05 |
come back player of the year in the AL.. Mariano Rivera or Scott Kazmir? |
| 2:05 |
: Didn’t even think about this. You know MO will win it.
|
| 2:05 |
Safer bet: Josh Johnson or Roy Halladay? |
| 2:05 |
: Johnson, amazingly!
|
| 2:05 |
Who do you have winning the World Series? |
| 2:05 |
: Red Sox?
|
| 2:06 |
Regarding leverage index, if I am reading the table right (http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml) you can have a 10.9 if bases loaded, two outs, and down by 1. |
| 2:06 |
: Yeah you have to be down in order to get the big swing.
|
| 2:06 |
How long does it take pitching staffs to ‘adjust’ to recent call ups? |
| 2:07 |
: What do you mean? For the team to find their roles?
|
| 2:07 |
I am worried about Matt Moore. I have him for 23$ in a pts ottoneu league. Should I consider shipping him out for a Paxton like player? |
| 2:07 |
: I’d shop him yes. The walks are an issue in points leagues.
|
| 2:07 |
What do you expect to see from Michael Pineda next season? |
| 2:07 |
: I really don’t know. If the velocity is really back, he still doesn’t have a changeup. Maybe a high-threes ERA and decent whip, decent K%? Low fours?
|
| 2:08 |
Over/under on Homer Bailey’s K/BB next year? |
| 2:09 |
: Tough one without looking! So I have to look. And that takes a second. It was basically 4/1 after being 3+/1 to one for most of his career. I’ll take a step back in K% (will the velocity hold? will the split finger be the difference?) but I still like him.
|
| 2:10 |
I like Medlen. 6th in SwgStk%,15th in F-Strike%,14th in Contact. He could get better. |
| 2:10 |
: Kinda two-pitch pitcher, but at least that second pitch is a changeup.
|
| 2:10 |
Who do you think would be best Free Agent catcher signing (based on expected performance but also expected contract)? Ruiz? |
| 2:11 |
: He looks pretty good. Salty’s BABIP could crater and make him overpriced. AJP might be super cheap and I don’t hate him as mcuh as the league does.
|
| 2:11 |
When is that fantasy conference in Arizona? Are there really enough people willing to pay 500$ to listen to Fantasy advice |
| 2:11 |
: Packed every year! Nov 1-3.
|
| 2:11 |
what should I expect from Kevin Gausman next year? |
| 2:12 |
: Oh man I’ll be owning him. I drool about his stuff. I can’t imagine that high nineties with a split finger like his won’t eventually work.
|
| 2:13 |
Among 2B/3B prospects with high expectations, who do you think may still reach all start status: Rendon, Ackley, Gyorko, Kipnis, Lawrie? |
| 2:13 |
: Kipnis! He’s practically there already! I see no problems with him. Among the others, I kinda like Lawrie more than others.
|
| 2:13 |
No one is asking you about beer today. |
| 2:13 |
: We had some questions. I’m not gung ho on it because I have bronchitis and can’t touch my beer for five days.
|
| 2:14 |
Better beer: Pliny the Younger or Pliny the Elder? or Pliny the Middle Aged? |
| 2:14 |
: Younger by far. But, being middle aged, I’d be interested in what that beer has to say.
|
| 2:14 |
Out of the cubs 4 top prospects: Baez, Almora, Bryant and Soler- logic states that 2 of them will either fail or undewhelm, right? |
| 2:14 |
: Yeah, even top ten prospects have a near 50% bust rate.
|
| 2:14 |
Beergraphs chat Friday’s duh! |
| 2:14 |
: Oh yeah, don’t forget that.
|
| 2:14 |
What do you expect from Hosmer next year? |
| 2:15 |
: .275/25/10. Pretty much what I figured him for this year, plus 5 homers in case the changes he made were real.
|
| 2:15 |
I love beer. So, I’ve got a Stone Imperial Porter (the Suede collabo), the Enjoy By, Hangar 24 Polycot, and Port Brewing Anniversary. Rank? |
| 2:15 |
: I’ve got that damn Suede mocking me in my fridge. Haven’t had it. Enjoy By TROUNCEs. Port second.
|
| 2:15 |
Jose Fernandez or Gerrit Cole in a dynasty? |
| 2:16 |
: You know what? I’ll take Cole. More wins in the short term. Also, I believe in his changeup. Fernandez’ change is okay, but the slurve he throws should have bigger platoon splits than Cole’s.
|
| 2:16 |
Where did I put my metamucil? |
| 2:16 |
: And why does my ankle still hurt.
|
| 2:16 |
“Will instant replay kill the neighborhood play?” a Deadspin writer asks. |
| 2:17 |
: If it does, there will be tradeoffs when it comes to how people can slide into second, so it’ll all be good.
|
| 2:17 |
I don’t drink…why does bronchitis preclude the consumption of brews? |
| 2:17 |
: Antibiotics.
|
| 2:17 |
Chances that Matt Adams is a full-time 1b somewhere next season? |
| 2:17 |
: In St. Louis. Very high.
|
| 2:17 |
With 96 mph av fb, does Eovaldi ever start to rack up the ks you might expect? |
| 2:18 |
: The velocity was down but now it’s up, so that’s part of the picture. The other is that he doesn’t have a platoon-split-busting pitch. So he can’t really strike out lefties well. But he could Pineda, I guess, if he works on his command.
|
| 2:18 |
Where does Craig go if Adams starts next year? Beltran’s OF spot? |
| 2:18 |
: Yes.
|
| 2:18 |
Will the twins sign any decent bats this off-season? |
| 2:19 |
: Are there any on the market? I doubt they go after an OF. Does Abreu seem like their sort of deal? I don’t see it.
|
| 2:19 |
Do 3rd base caoches get WS rings? |
| 2:19 |
: Yes
|
| 2:19 |
Does Oscar Tavares start everyday from Opening Day next year? |
| 2:19 |
: No
|
| 2:19 |
So then what does STL do with Taveres? |
| 2:19 |
: Start him in the minors and then bring him up when someone gets injured.
|
| 2:20 |
Will there be any Rotographs articles dealing with Otto allocation strategies this year? I seem to remember some last year |
| 2:20 |
: Will get Chad on it!
|
| 2:20 |
I’m tired of hearing the Montero trade regarded as a failure…the Yankees have gotten 0 innings in exchange for a catcher who they probably wouldn’t have been able to start, and is now suspended. |
| 2:20 |
: Oh it was a failure allright. For everyone involved.
|
| 2:20 |
Myers or Puig? |
| 2:21 |
: Great question. I’ll have to look at Myers’ BABIP closer. I don’t think he’ll run as much as Puig. I might take Puig! I bet market takes Myers.
|
| 2:21 |
The Montero trade is equivalent to those shootouts at the end of action movies where everyone ends up dead |
| 2:21 |
Career over/under 100 inings left for Johan? |
| 2:21 |
: under
|
| 2:21 |
What is it about Stanford that messes with hitters so badly? |
| 2:22 |
: I don’t think it does, necessarily, especially since the best hitters don’t take on the Stanford Swing. But if it does, it’s because they focus on contact and getting the foot down, so they *might* kill rhythm and dampen power.
|
| 2:22 |
Leonys Martin – cannon arm and steals some bases. But more valuable in real life than fantasy? |
| 2:22 |
: He’s athletic but I’m not sure he’ll turn all that athleticism into stats. .280/15/30? Sure. But much more? Dunno.
|
| 2:22 |
Johan or Halladay? |
| 2:23 |
: Johan has a couple years on Doc if I remember right, but also a second surgery. Hmm. Johan?
|
| 2:23 |
I just had the BEST idea! a FG/BG meetup in Cooperstown! who hangs up first? NO ONE! Ill start researching Allegash, you book your flight |
| 2:23 |
: Oh Appelman!
|
| 2:23 |
How do the Orioles solve their DH problem next year? Platoon Valencia with someone else again? Go after Beltran? Abreu is another option but I’m not sure they’d win that bidding war. |
| 2:24 |
: Beltran would make a ton of sense for them if they have the money. I sorta see top-end starting rotation as their need, but maybe Gausman can help. Not like the market is great, unless they go after Tanaka.
|
| 2:24 |
5×5 who do you like more…Billy Hamilton/Lorenzo Cain/Brett Gardner? |
| 2:24 |
: Without price included? Hamilton. With price included? Gardner.
|
| 2:24 |
“People just don’t value the no-pop patience guy.” Pity Rich becker |
| 2:24 |
Who hangs up first: the one who placed the call or the one who answered it? |
| 2:24 |
ok enuf of this. |
| 2:24 |
: That’s my kind of innerlude.
|
| 2:25 |
Which potential suitor would be the best fit for Stanton? |
| 2:25 |
: The one with tons of minor league talent, especially on the infield. (Texas)
|
| 2:25 |
If the Indians decide to keep spending money, do you think they would take a risk and sign Abreu, and keep Swish in RF then split DH/1B for Abreu and Santana? |
| 2:25 |
: Tanaka would be a great risk for them IMO.
|
| 2:25 |
Stanton will have more suitors than Penelope of Ithaca. |
| 2:25 |
So is Wilhemsen just gone like Gagnum Style and parachute pants now? |
| 2:25 |
innerlude? |
| 2:26 |
: innertube innerlude
|
| 2:26 |
We should have a crowd-sourcing for Tanaka. I believe Yu and Iwakuma have made people somewhat forget Matsuzaka and we’re heading for a pretty big overpay. Thoughts? |
| 2:26 |
: Could really happen. Wild card, and maybe why we haven’t done it yet: the rules for posting could change this offseason.
|
| 2:26 |
Jayson Werth a sell high? |
| 2:27 |
: Sure. He’s older than you might think, and more of a batting average risk then he showed last year.
|
| 2:27 |
New prognosis for Manny Machado? |
| 2:27 |
: Seems less likely to head to short now. And fewer steals is iffy. But if he irons out the infield flies, could still be great.
|
| 2:27 |
Thanks for the long chat eno. You have totally killed my afternoon productivity… |
| 2:28 |
: Have a manager meeting coming up so I might have to go soon, so your bosses just sent me a thank you.
|
| 2:28 |
Chris Perez get another year of closing in Clev? |
| 2:28 |
: He won’t make it through the year. Cody Allen?
|
| 2:28 |
If you look at 2012 and 13, Werth had a .311 average over 762 AB/876 PA. But yeah, 2013 was probably the best season of the rest of his career. And the Nats wasted it. |
| 2:28 |
: Looking mostly at his hitting profile and K%.
|
| 2:28 |
Was Corbin a flash in the pan last year for the first 2/3 of the season, or did he just get tired and can we expect good things next season? |
| 2:29 |
: He doesn’t have a good changeup and he needs one. I hope he works on it. Even with his current arsenal, though, I’ll set the over under on 3.7ish and put him right around Ryu (but after).
|
| 2:29 |
Strasburg or Verlander? |
| 2:29 |
: Verlander has proven he can do the innings, Stras hasn’t.
|
| 2:30 |
Do you think once the Redskins change their name (inevitable), all the pressure and outrage will fall on the Indians? To go back to the Spiders would be kinda fun. |
| 2:30 |
: Oh man I like Spiders. Spiders from Mars headlines write themselves!
|
| 2:30 |
I’m still waiting for an explanation on how the Redskins are getting all the scrutiny when Chief Wahoo exists. |
| 2:30 |
What about the Braves? Say bye to the chop?! |
| 2:30 |
Mike Trout is projected by many to become much more of a power hitter while losing speed and defence, and by implication an even better hitter, is he following the accelerated Barry Bonds career path? |
| 2:30 |
: Oh man this is *not* a crazy thing to say.
|
| 2:31 |
Cashner, Tillman, Medlen, Bailey or Masterson in 2014 and going forward? |
| 2:31 |
: Bailey over Cash because of health, Medlen in the trio ……………… Tillman, Masterson.
|
| 2:32 |
You’re right, it’s not crazy. Now I’m scared. |
| 2:32 |
E5 a first rounder? |
| 2:32 |
: The back end of the first round gets a little iffy, I could see him sneaking in. I might take him over a pitcher there.
|
| 2:32 |
Chris Perez will get non-tendered, no way Cleveland pays him $9mil, or whatever he would get in arbitration. |
| 2:32 |
: That seems like a reasonable thing to say.
|
| 2:33 |
Would you sooner bet on the Mariner playoff chances than say the Cubs? |
| 2:33 |
: Actually I think the Cubs could be closer. Especially if they add another starting pitcher. There are things to like about what they are doing, already.
|
| 2:34 |
Eric Young Jr. goes for 50+ in 2014? |
| 2:34 |
: I think he’s better cast as a fourth OF, so maybe no.
|
| 2:35 |
: Wow, breaking beer news. Duvel bought Boulevard, one of my favorite breweries.
|
| 2:35 |
of all the playoff teams this year, which has the worst chance to get back next year? someone in the NL Central, right? can’t imagine the Pirates get a repeat of those performances. |
| 2:35 |
: Eh, they are building something nice and have Taillon in the wings. Least likely to return… interesting. Cleveland?
|
| 2:35 |
True or false: Stanton would be a top 5 pick if traded to Colorado. |
| 2:36 |
: Or Texas. Still doesn’t steal. But middle of the first round possible in either scenario.
|
| 2:36 |
What, sir, are you implying about the moves the Mariners have made recently? |
| 2:36 |
: ALL OF THE NO D SLUGGERS
|
| 2:37 |
Mashers like Just In Smoke and Mike Morse |
| 2:37 |
Who are some of your favorite underrated free agents? Jose Molina maybe, if the framing numbres are right? |
| 2:38 |
: McLouth? Grandy, depending on the numbers. Beltran, but if the Cards advance he’ll have an aura. Hughes for an NL team. Kazmir? Scott Baker? It’s a terrible group.
|
| 2:38 |
You going into drafts this year treating Jose Abreu as if he’ll be a top-5 1B? |
| 2:38 |
: No. I’m more risk averse.
|
| 2:38 |
: oh man! guys! I’m coughing up a lung, anyone want it?
|
| 2:39 |
: I gotta go! Thanks for coming. We’ll do some more chats, really happy y’all came.
|
| 2:39 |
thanks Eno! |
| 2:39 |
: Till next time.
|
| 2:39 |
EVERYONE BACK TO CLASS |
| 2:39 |
Get well soon eno |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.