Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Ricky Nolasco

by
October 17, 2013

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.

Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.

In this edition: Ricky Nolasco.

Some relevant information regarding Nolasco:

  • Has averaged 198.2 IP and 2.9 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.6 WAR per 180 IP over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 3.0 WAR in 199.1 IP in 2013.
  • Is entering his age-31 season.
  • Made $11.5M in 2013, as part of extension signed before 2011 season.

Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Nolasco this offseason.

Other Players: Bronson Arroyo / Carlos Beltran / A.J. Burnett / Marlon Byrd / Robinson Cano / Shin-Soo Choo / Bartolo Colon / Nelson Cruz / David DeJesus / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Jacoby Ellsbury / Scott Feldman / Gavin Floyd / Matt Garza / Curtis Granderson / Roy Halladay / Jason Hammel / Dan Haren / Roberto Hernandez / Tim Hudson / Phil Hughes / Omar Infante / Ubaldo Jimenez / Josh Johnson / Scott Kazmir / Hiroki Kuroda / Tim Lincecum / Adam Lind / James Loney / Paul Maholm / Brian McCann / Nate McLouth / Kendrys Morales / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe / Chris Young.

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

9 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
LONNIE
12 years ago

I would go 3/30. Have always liked him, but consider him a bit of an enigma. Always feel there is just something missing that holds him back.

0
Matthew TobinMember since 2016
12 years ago

3/$34.

0
ben
12 years ago

i expect something closer to 3/40

0
JayT
12 years ago

I think he’ll get something similar to Edwin Jackson last year. 4/$50 or somewhere near there. He’s been durable and good for quite a while now, and that always gets paid.

1
Matt W
12 years ago

It’s an overpay but Edwin Jackson money or higher is what I expect. Edwin Jackson averaged a 3.1 WAR the previous three years compared Nolasco’s 2.9. Nolasco is coming off a 3.0 WAR year compared to Jackson coming off of a 2.2 WAR season.

4/$56 wouldn’t surprise me. 3/$40 sounds about right to me but somebody will overpay the extra year and extra dollars to get it done. His first month or so with the Dodgers made him some extra money as somebody will foolishly chase that performance. As previously stated, durable and average + a strong second half = bank.

0
vivalajeter
12 years ago
Reply to  Matt W

If I’m a GM, I don’t pay a pitcher based on WAR when his ERA is consistently higher than his FIP and xFIP. Year to year fluctuations are bound to happen, but he has unperformed to his peripherals five years in a row, sometimes by large margins.

1
Matthew TobinMember since 2016
12 years ago
Reply to  Matt W

Edwin Jackson also has considerable more upside. He throws great stuff and was expected to be an ace earlier in his carer. I mean upper 90’s faseball and a hard upper 80’s slider touching about 90.

He was always that guy that was one step away.

0
Johnny
12 years ago

At 31 years old I doubt he gets a Edwin Jackson deal. 3/38 is my prediction.

0
Sivart
12 years ago

4/$48, but I’d only go 2/$20. Of course that’s as a fan of an AL East team, I just don’t trust his home run rate to be any good in that division. In the NL West he’s worth the 4/$48.

0