Eno Sarris Baseball Chat 5/29/14
by Eno Sarris
May 29, 2014
| 11:41 |
: YES ITS ALMOST WEEKEND
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| 11:41 |
: and yes I feel ya strutter
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| 11:42 |
:
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| 12:01 |
: I’m here!
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| 12:02 |
: In an hour, my piece in which Chris Young yells at me publishes.
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| 12:02 |
Sup Eno? I need help in the BA category badly, but without sacrificing too severely in the counting stats. Which two of these guys would you rather have: Bonifacio, Odor, Legares, Wong, or Owings? |
| 12:02 |
: Wong has best contact rate and might have some more power, I’d take him for batting average. The rest look like .26-.270 hitters to me.
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| 12:02 |
asking for a angry nats fan: What are the odds of not scoring a run with bases loaded and no outs with the heart of the lineup up to bat? I would wager scoring two runs with that scenario is more likely. |
| 12:02 |
: Actually the run expectancy with the bases loaded and no outs is 2.41, so yeah, that would suck to not score.
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| 12:03 |
Should I hold on Alex Wood with the hope that he gets his rotation spot back? |
| 12:03 |
: No way. I thnk they’re doing this just to keep his innings down and he’ll be in the rotation again soon.
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| 12:03 |
Eno my man (hope you don’t mind the familiarity)– do you see any pitcher with the potential to make a leap a la Kluber, or even Keuchel? Is there someone that has added or subtracted something from their repertoire that is subtly leading to success? As in the results aren’t quite clear yet, but there’s a nice subtle SSS trend? |
| 12:03 |
: McHugh dropped a stinky two-seamer and has three legit pitches.
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| 12:04 |
What do you think about Kole Calhoun’s value ROS? Do you think he will be leading off at all or is that plan donezo? |
| 12:04 |
: For some reason, he’s striking out too much.
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| 12:04 |
: So I think maybe he won’t lead off.
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| 12:04 |
Is this just a case of Brian Dozier coming back down to earth or do you you think he picks the HR and SB back up? |
| 12:04 |
: The power was going to regress a little IMO, but the rest looks sustainable with a tiny bit of batting average upside. All about his pop-up rate.
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| 12:05 |
Do you think Choo will up his steals production? I got an offer, Davis for Choo and I desperately need speed, and already have Abreu, Pujols and Dunn at 1B (Morales on NA)…do you take that offer or try for better? |
| 12:05 |
: Davis has a long career of being a wrong-side platoon player, I wouldn’t do that even if Choo only steals 15 this year.
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| 12:06 |
Eno – headed to the American Craft Beerfest on the waterfront in Boston this weekend, any favorites I should be on the lookout for? |
| 12:06 |
: Anything from Jack’s Abby or Maine is a must.
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| 12:06 |
Can you rank these borderline SPs for ROS? McHugh, Hutchinson, Hughes, Jaime Garcia. |
| 12:07 |
: McHugh, Hutch, Jaime, Hughes. But I really like the first three. Hutch might be behind Jaime, all those walks in the last game were a bit worrisome.
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| 12:07 |
Have you seen much of Big Mike Morse this year? You buying on a full season of this kind of production? Something like 80/30/90 and a .280 average? |
| 12:07 |
: Under on all because of the inevitable injury.
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| 12:07 |
So after Mauer loses his catcher eligibility he will pretty much be James Loney right? |
| 12:07 |
: Yeesh. Maybe. He’s got the worst pull percentage of his career and that pretty much explains his power.
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| 12:08 |
: This just came on my spotify and it’s one my favorite video game music songs
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| 12:08 |
:
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| 12:08 |
Keeper league: Boagarts for Springer who wins? Thanks man |
| 12:09 |
: Springer has improved some, but I think he’ll always be around 28% strikeout rate. In a batting average league, that’s .230-.240. But Xander might be a .275/18/5 guy… in which case Springer wins.
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| 12:10 |
Is Victorino straight droppable at this point? I’m in a 14-teamer, so I would think not, but he’s barely played and I have Rajai and Springer… |
| 12:10 |
: He’s killing me, but as long as you have a DL spot, you have a place for him.
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| 12:10 |
Mark my words, Eno–today is the day the Lude Strikes Back! |
| 12:10 |
More like I feel ya stutter. |
| 12:10 |
What do you think of Brandon Moss? |
| 12:11 |
: Pretty good (Moss and that lude).
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| 12:11 |
You should make some of your Spotify playlists public so some of us can pick your musical brain. |
| 12:11 |
: Sounds doable.
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| 12:11 |
Franklin or La Stellllllla, ROS? |
| 12:11 |
: La Stella has the playing time.
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| 12:11 |
How good would someone’s triples slash line have to be before they are intentionally walked in nearly every plate appearance? |
| 12:11 |
: Look at Barry Bonds’ page.
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| 12:12 |
Is there any reason to keep waiting on Shalby Miller? Every time he seems to turn a corner he takes two steps back. |
| 12:13 |
: I think he needs to start throwing the offspeed stuff a bit more. Still has the velocity, but no swinging strikes. There’s another question about dropping him for Ian Kennedy, and yeah I suppose if I removed his name from the page, I might do that. But this guy was supposed to be great and then he was. I’m holding a little while longer.
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| 12:14 |
Derek Norris turning back into a pumpkin? |
| 12:15 |
: No way. His swinging strike and strikeout rates are fundamentally different. This is who he as supposed to be.
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| 12:15 |
: (That said, Jaso is still in his way for all the playing tiem)
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| 12:15 |
Should I sell high on Donaldson? |
| 12:15 |
: No, I love that man. Pause.
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| 12:15 |
I was okay with Hosmer when he was hitting .315 and mixing in a lot of doubles. But not hitting much now, and only singles when he does. Should I hold on him? I also have Rizzo, who I’ve been using at DH. |
| 12:16 |
: Could be worth selling low. Even if he figures it out, it’ll be a hot stretch of doubles and singles with 15 or so homers.
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| 12:16 |
Is there anyone on the waiver wire you’re running to get right now? |
| 12:16 |
: McHugh, considering a little Khris Davis.
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| 12:16 |
I just don’t understand why Kendrys morales’s ownership is so low. I mean, we can be pretty darn sure he’ll be playing in a great lineup spot soon, and when he does he could end up being a top 12 first baseman… Just needs a bench spot and the tiniest bit of patience! |
| 12:16 |
: Possibility he doesn’t get an every day job? And ends up in pitcher’s park again.
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| 12:16 |
Thoughts on Trevor Bauer? His control in his last start has me shopping him before he implodes. |
| 12:17 |
: I have some faith that the changes will stick — his ball rates on his pitches have all improved. But he’s not worth holding if someone likes him.
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| 12:17 |
Eno, which 2 you most want to own in a non-holds league: Rondon, Shaw, Britton, Ottavino, and Melancon. Thanks! |
| 12:18 |
: OTTAVINO HOT WAIVER PICKUP. Brothers pitched the seventh again and surprise! having a Dan Kolbian strikeout rate is not working for a Coors closer. Second? Rondon is actually a closer, Britton too. Maybe Britton.
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| 12:18 |
Still holding on Liriano or have you abandoned ship? |
| 12:18 |
: Deeper than 12, he still gets Ks.
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| 12:18 |
HI I PENO BUTTIS |
| 12:18 |
Hey I got a cranky stanky. |
| 12:19 |
Houston is going to mess around a win a wild card next year, right? |
| 12:19 |
: Getting there.
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| 12:19 |
Hi Eno. What’s wrong with Austin Jackson? Is hi move int helineup affecting his run production, or it it just his age? |
| 12:20 |
: I actually think he’s primed for a breakout. Some of his best plate discipline peripherals of his career, and the most fly balls. I think he has the power to turn those into homers. And he’s taking off a ton more this year. He says his hammy was hurt — I’m writing him up for Fox on Monday — and he’s good to go.
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| 12:20 |
Hey Eno, always enjoy these, thanks! This isn’t strictly a stat/fantasy question, but when it comes to writers like Bob Ryan and oi ew 8 rhg ooir aoh opmoH OH OHHHHH MYBGDO I”M A WEREFOLFgt |
| 12:20 |
Should I drop Aaron Hill for Wong? Or am I overthinking? |
| 12:20 |
: Overthinking. Wong might hit for an empty batting average — 7 homers and 15 steals would be a decent end of season total for him.
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| 12:20 |
Are Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn worth rostering in OBP 12 teamers? |
| 12:21 |
: Yes
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| 12:21 |
Went to some vendor meetings for work yesterday, and saw a new easton bat that has a rotating handle. It would blow your mind. |
| 12:21 |
I also saw a bunch of composite wood bats. Like they put composite material inside of a normal wood bat. |
| 12:21 |
: Bats! I should talk to some hitters about their bats.
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| 12:21 |
Whappenin bredren |
| 12:22 |
: WHA YA SAY RUDE BWAY
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| 12:22 |
Check out “War on Drugs” on Spotify Eno! |
| 12:22 |
: They made an appearance here a while back.
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| 12:23 |
:
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| 12:23 |
Do you believe Alex Meyer will come up and have significant impact for the second half? What’s he capable of, if so? |
| 12:24 |
: I love his stuff. Three legit itches with great velocity. Some command risk, and he only threw 105 innings last year, so he’ll max out in 80-100 innings from now. But I think 60-80 of those will come with big league team and be useful.
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| 12:24 |
PUIG!!! Was offered him and Kinsler for Trout preseason in a 12 team roto dynasty. Turned it down. Now I’m wondering if I should see if the owner still wants to make a similar deal. Trout doesn’t look to be running like he did and is Puig just a better hitter? Thanks. |
| 12:25 |
: I can’t say that Puig is a better hitter than Trout. Eventually, his swinging strikes will catch up to him. And he’s being caught a bunch. I don’t love the trade.
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| 12:25 |
Can you feel the love tonight? |
| 12:25 |
Thoughts on Yasiel Puig completing the trifecta of top 3 OF in baseball now along with Cutch and Trout? Looking like all that Harper was supposed to be, and more. Plus that bo jackson steez. |
| 12:26 |
: This I can believe in, but if you’re trading Trout for Puig, I think the second piece should be better than Kinsler.
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| 12:26 |
AJ Burnett back to his old tricks (walking a lot of batters). C …sell while we can? |
| 12:26 |
: If you can get anything for him, yes. He’s pitching through a hernia too.
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| 12:26 |
Should I grab Wong lol |
| 12:26 |
we’re finally getting Bells out here in San Diego! Even on tap! |
| 12:26 |
Would you want Manny to coach your AAA team? |
| 12:26 |
: OF COURSE lude
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| 12:26 |
Re: Puig his Swing and miss % goes down every month he’s been a pro. |
| 12:27 |
: I’ve been a big fan of his adjustments, even wrote last year that he’d improved his swing metrics more than anyone in the second half. Still, it’s a violent swing and I prefer Trout’s most years.
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| 12:27 |
ROS: Brandon Mccharty or Smyly? |
| 12:27 |
: Still Smyly, they only jerking him around to find a way to limit his innings.
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| 12:27 |
Derek Norris or Wilin Rosario rest of the way? Or use the roster spot to keep both and play matchups? |
| 12:27 |
: Rosario for PT and HR.
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| 12:28 |
Can La Stella be Chris Johnson’esque ? |
| 12:28 |
: I was thinking more Scutaro, and he does have some speed.
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| 12:28 |
Guess what, I’m the best. |
| 12:28 |
: Yes.
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| 12:28 |
I have 3 legit itches right now |
| 12:28 |
ever been to Bierkraft in Brooklyn? it’s legit. |
| 12:29 |
: yes, love the sandwich/beer store idea. Wanted to copy it out here in the peninsula and almost signed a lease on a place.
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| 12:29 |
Where do you think Pedro Alvarez ends up in terms of Average? .265 over the last 30 days and strikeout rate is down considerably for the season. |
| 12:29 |
: All of his swing metrics are looking good. I could see .250+
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| 12:29 |
When you say Xander is 18/5 – you mean this year or at peak? that seems awfully pessimistic. He’s ops’ing .800 or so right now, while the power and rbis and runs are slim, he has the makings of all that ou want a hitter to be – just happens to be doing it in the MLB where things look less sexy. He seems like the best bet to be a long term top 3 SS behind Tulo and (who else, even?) for the foreseeable future. |
| 12:30 |
: I meant for the time being. But not all great hitters are great fantasy players. With a 20+ strikeout rate, not much speed, and non-fantasy skills like defense and patience, I think he’s being set up to be a real-life monster / meh fantasy player.
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| 12:31 |
Jake Arrieta. Believer? |
| 12:31 |
: Matchups, sure. It’ll take more for me to really believe though.
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| 12:31 |
Is Cobb a straight up ace? |
| 12:31 |
: Yes, while healthy. But there are still some risky injury markers in his stats.
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| 12:31 |
At what age does steals peak? |
| 12:32 |
: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa… 25 looks like
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| 12:32 |
Wood is a composite. |
| 12:32 |
Eno, listen to the band Television and the album would be Marquee Moon. |
| 12:32 |
War on Drugs’ new one is great. So is the new one by Real Estate. |
| 12:32 |
Behind Reyes, Hanley, Alexei Ramirez even for 3. Xander is getting better but don’t get carried away. |
| 12:33 |
GIMME THAT HAMBURGER |
| 12:33 |
Worth holding onto Cashner if I could roster Keuchel or McHugh instead? |
| 12:33 |
: I’d like to have Cash and Keuchel if possible.
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| 12:33 |
Lightning round ROS: Frazier or Arenado? Seager or Xander? |
| 12:34 |
: With the extra playing time, Frazier. Seager if you’re not looking for a shortstop.
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| 12:34 |
Looking for a power bat off the waiver wire, I’m seeing C. Carter, Willingham, Mark Reynolds, Juan Francisco *trails off into soft sobbing noises* |
| 12:34 |
: If you can platoon, I like JF and compliant pork.
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| 12:34 |
would you ever drink a bud light? |
| 12:34 |
: If we were playing a drinking game – I prefer Pong, but boat racing is okay.
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| 12:35 |
Re: Bierkraft, can we have a craft beer/fangraphs meet up in Brooklyn? Sounds like a fantastic idea to me. |
| 12:35 |
: Yeah will have to try and make that happen from afar.
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| 12:35 |
Do you think Mookie Betts has escalated to top 5 prospect status? Need help in my dynasty league – and given that he’s both “so close and so far away” – do you think there are similar prospects he’s worth trading for to help now? In a league that values OBP, negative points for KO, Sb, etc – he seems like the real deal for what I need. But that isn’t helping at the moment :). |
| 12:36 |
: He was top 30 by bust rate the minute he was selected as an AFL All-Star by my research. His walk and strikeout rates make his bust rate top 20 at least. I think you’ll see him in the top 10-15 in the next iterations, and this might be a good time to trade for him. That said, he might be Michael Brantley at second base. (He’s had more power than Brantley had in the minors, but is also smaller.)
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| 12:36 |
Thoughts on Weihenstephaner? I think it’s tasty. Heyward for Bailey? Need pitching and without him would have OF of Gomez/Brantley/Alex Gordon/Cuddyer. Categories include OBP and Slg, K/bb and qs |
| 12:37 |
: I love Aventinus. Have one in the fridge. Trade is fine.
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| 12:37 |
Terminology question: My league allows up to 13 keepers for three year contracts with one chance to extend the contract. Am I in a “keeper” league or a “dynasty league”? |
| 12:37 |
: Keeper. Dynasty to me is keep 75+% of your roster.
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| 12:37 |
Most manufacturers pre “bone-rub” their wood bats now. Yeah, its exactly how it sounds. |
| 12:37 |
: Let’s get dirty.
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| 12:37 |
“You can see he’s a lot quieter at home plate,” [New York Mets manager] Terry Collins said of Duda. “He’s the strongest guy in baseball for me. He doesn’t need all that movement to create bat speed. I hope some of the adjustments he’s made in the last seven days will start to help him out.” |
| 12:37 |
Is Ottoneu a dynasty? |
| 12:38 |
: Yeah you *could* keep your whole roster!
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| 12:38 |
i like to get dirty. |
| 12:38 |
: Good.
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| 12:38 |
i mean like, playing with mud is fun |
| 12:38 |
i just love mud |
| 12:38 |
and dirt |
| 12:38 |
HEY ENO INDIE BANDS |
| 12:38 |
:
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| 12:39 |
Wow, are you all caught up Eno? |
| 12:39 |
: Trying something different. Hanging around at the top of the q and then jumping back down for comments.
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| 12:39 |
hey eno say something about the blue jays |
| 12:40 |
: Someone asked me what team might surprise last month and I said the Blue Jays because the first step is offense and then you see what your pitching looks like.
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| 12:40 |
“uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh” |
| 12:40 |
this is the most nonsensical eno chat in a while. go us |
| 12:40 |
I DON’T LIKE CHANGE |
| 12:40 |
that new idea is genius |
| 12:40 |
adds the chat feel |
| 12:40 |
Is Cingrani done fooling people? |
| 12:40 |
: It’s a good fastball. He says his change is good. Let’s see it.
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| 12:41 |
Think V-Mart can keep it up? |
| 12:41 |
: The power might take a little break, but the contact is like five years in the making.
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| 12:41 |
Would you start Jamie Garcia in Stl against Tor next week? Need to know as will set weekly lineup before your next chat. |
| 12:41 |
: At home? sure.
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| 12:42 |
Which crappy second baseman should I go with now that I’ve given up on Gyorko? Here’s some that are freely available: |
| 12:42 |
Derek Dietrich, Seán Rodríguez, Brian Roberts, Luis Valbuena, Jonathan Schoop,Danny Espinosa, Dustin Ackley |
| 12:42 |
: yuck. Roberts or Schoop? Don’t love Schoop, but at least there’s a whiff of the unknown about him.
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| 12:43 |
: Here’s a name for the deep dynastiers: Frank Montas http://cdn.fangraphs.com/bl…
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| 12:43 |
What do you make of Wheeler? Better times ahead or more of the same? |
| 12:43 |
: I don’t believe. The command is just so bad.
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| 12:43 |
Hodor. |
| 12:43 |
: HODOR
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| 12:43 |
what about Odor for that guys 2B woes? |
| 12:43 |
: If he’s out there.
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| 12:43 |
wuts ur fav type of basehit |
| 12:44 |
: the triple for sure. Preferably legged out by someone at the extremes — super fast or super slow. So a Bengie Molina or a Jose Reyes (with dreads) triple.
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| 12:44 |
:
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| 12:44 |
More Punk Rock and Less Indie |
| 12:45 |
: Don’t know a ton of punk, it’s all from my 1998-2003 obsession.
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| 12:45 |
Am I sell high or what? |
| 12:45 |
: NO way. Your splitter is like the best offspeed pitch in baseball right now.
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| 12:45 |
What’s the ETA on Pederson’s call up? July? |
| 12:45 |
: Crowded ass outfield. Later.
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| 12:45 |
Is Springer gonna hit 200 homers this year? |
| 12:45 |
: Yes
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| 12:45 |
Tell me Kipnis returns to being an elite 2b again. Getting lapped. |
| 12:46 |
: I believe in him. Just an injury after all, keeping his samples low.
|
| 12:46 |
coming to minneapolis for the ASG? if you don’t like surly we don’t have any smashing IPAs for you, but you should check out the dangerous man taproom if you get a chance |
| 12:46 |
: YES. Meetup July 14, details TBD. Home run derby meetup.
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| 12:46 |
for all the love of betances, why no love for wade davis? guy is a freaking maniac in a relief role. he, andrew miller bosox, and betances all dominating like they *should* have as starters. a beautiful thing. |
| 12:46 |
: There’s a lot of love out there for Wade Davis.
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| 12:47 |
What about MEEE?? Buy-low or reason to be concerned? |
| 12:48 |
: Course there’s reason to be concerned, but by K-BB and swSTR, he’s doing the best he’s done in his career. Doesn’t look like a big change in his pitching mix. F it, I’ll take your Price.
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| 12:48 |
How can I tell how much value a guy got out of a specific aspect of base running, say, SB? Where are the elements of BsR WAR? |
| 12:49 |
: I think it’s SB-CS on some percentage (2SB-CS or something) plus extra bases taken.
|
| 12:49 |
Am I turning into CC Sebathia? Slower velocity, have to make adjustments. Will I ever be elite again? |
| 12:49 |
: Yeah I’m trying to sell low. Even if you figure it out, it might not be until next year.
|
| 12:50 |
How should we value Kemp? |
| 12:50 |
: Top-five round upside, floor like he’s droppable.
|
| 12:50 |
Price needs to be Kluberized! |
| 12:50 |
: Is his four-seam bad?
|
| 12:50 |
Paxton or McHugh for this year only? |
| 12:50 |
: McHugh. Paxton out wiht shoulder issues now.
|
| 12:51 |
What the hell is wrong with McCann? |
| 12:51 |
: Shifted more? I still like him.
|
| 12:51 |
Did you see Rick Reilly’s article on Jeets? Woooow. |
| 12:51 |
: Creepy.
|
| 12:51 |
Does K%-BB% understate the value of limiting walks? Maybe not as bad as K/BB overstates them, but still |
| 12:52 |
: FIP is something like 3K-2BB to iron that out a bit, but I do not like K/BB and K-BB is great.
|
| 12:52 |
I guess that means a lightning round with the tweaked process? |
| 12:52 |
: Much more likely.
|
| 12:52 |
Was offered Posey & Adrian Gonzalez for Sonny Gray, Rizzo & Sal Perez. Can afford to give up the starter for offensive upgrade. Make sense to you, fair enough? |
| 12:53 |
: Sure, as much as I like Rizzo and Gray, I’ll admit the guys you are getting are better at c and 1b.
|
| 12:53 |
Sell or hold Pablo Sandoval? |
| 12:53 |
: I think he can .280/18 RoS.
|
| 12:53 |
Speaking of David Price, Who does he get traded to this summer? |
| 12:53 |
: Boston?
|
| 12:53 |
: June 21
|
| 12:53 |
When will Gregory Polanco get called up |
| 12:53 |
: I’M ANSWERING QUESTIONS BEFORE THEY’RE ASKED SPOOKY
|
| 12:53 |
Of the four tabs I have open right now, two of them involve looking for a new job and this is one. the other merely lists what I’m supposed to be actually doing. |
| 12:54 |
: but this is the active tab
|
| 12:54 |
whats up with gyorko? he hit those bombs against jose fernandez and i thought sweet, coming out of it… Dont expect a star, but at least dan uggla of a couple years ago |
| 12:54 |
: I think .260/.310 with 20 homers is about the best I’m expecting this year.
|
| 12:54 |
WIth all the focus on ‘batted ball authority’, is xBABIP still particularly useful? Seems to be people are moving away from the idea that luck has any significant influence on BABIP, for hitters anyway |
| 12:55 |
: We’re working on one with hard hit data that beats all the other xBABIPs we’ve seen and still only has a .4 or so year to year correlation. BABIP is hard y’all.
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| 12:55 |
Edgar Martinez’s annual triple was my favorite thing in the world as a young Mariners fan in the 90s. |
| 12:55 |
Eno the Magnificent |
| 12:55 |
Price=traded=Boston=in the division??? |
| 12:55 |
: yeah but Boston has all the young guys to trade. Who else could manage it? Atlanta? San Francisco?
|
| 12:55 |
Price to ATL. |
| 12:56 |
more House and less Punk |
| 12:56 |
:
|
| 12:56 |
: does that count?
|
| 12:56 |
Why Would Boston trade for Price? They are in last. They are bad right now. Why not sign him as an FA next season instead of giving up the farm? |
| 12:56 |
: “They are bad now”?
|
| 12:56 |
If I’m more of a suck up, will you answer more of questions? |
| 12:57 |
: I don’t think this puts you on the right track.
|
| 12:57 |
Price to St. Louis… count on it |
| 12:57 |
: Weird. They don’t really do that kind of thing.
|
| 12:57 |
HIS NAME IS DAN UGGLA |
| 12:57 |
With 2 WCs, GMs really need to get over the “don’t trade in the division” nonsense. By that logic, they’d take less value from a same-league different-divisional foe….take lesser value from a team in another league? So stupid…so antiquated. |
| 12:57 |
: Agreed.
|
| 12:57 |
For a second I thought you were predicting the date of the Price trade. That would have been bold. |
| 12:57 |
Be bold, Eno. |
| 12:57 |
: July 22.
|
| 12:58 |
chris carter!!! two taters! |
| 12:58 |
: How many strikeouts.
|
| 12:58 |
Let me rephrase my question. I want Syndergaard. I’ve made an offer for Trumbo, deGrom and Matt Barnes. I’m willing to up the prospect but is Mike Foltynewicz or Eduardo Rodriguez to get that done? Please help Obi Wan Eno, you’re my only hope. |
| 12:58 |
: Try Rodriguez first and it’s worth it. deGrom has no breaker, Barnes is a shot in dark.
|
| 12:59 |
This Price debate is getting heated. |
| 12:59 |
Speaking of moving Verlander – I’m aiming for McHugh. Trade Verlander for McHugh and Aramis Ramirez? |
| 12:59 |
: I feel like hte name should do you better.
|
| 12:59 |
the dominos falling for NYM… please let terry be next. i know you cant blame him for the terrible roster, but his handling of players and in game decisions are BRUTAL |
| 12:59 |
: Not a Terry fan at all.
|
| 12:59 |
RE: Carter – offensive Ks dont matter in fantasy! if carter hits 25-30, thats all he needs to do |
| 12:59 |
: the batting average on a K is zero.
|
| 12:59 |
Someone dropped Y. Ventura in my league, is he worth a pick-up? |
| 12:59 |
: Um yes.
|
| 12:59 |
How long till minor league parks get public PitchFX? |
| 1:00 |
: Tons of them have them but the data is owned by the teams. Track man and proprietary tech instead of Pfx.
|
| 1:00 |
|
| 1:00 |
I want to post that gif of Stephenson blowing in Lebron’s ear, but it’s over 3mb. Demoralizing. |
| 1:00 |
: I thought that was funny as all heck.
|
| 1:01 |
In regards to the draft, what does it mean when a team is trying to complete a below-slot deal with a player? What are the risks? |
| 1:02 |
: They’re trying to spend less than the recommended slot money on the player, in order to save up to spend over slot somewhere else. The risk is you don’t get either player, because the penalties for going over budget are very harsh.
|
| 1:02 |
AA is my bitch. Bring on Iowa. |
| 1:02 |
: The big leagues want to know if you can play third yet though.
|
| 1:02 |
mookie didnt get a hit today SELL SELL SELL |
| 1:02 |
Am I better for streaming or stashing? |
| 1:02 |
: Stash and hold. I like the talent, only worried about walks.
|
| 1:02 |
The A’s are going to have to address 2B and their rotation at some point. I assume a trade is coming this summer. Does their system have anything really attractive beyond Russell that could get them a difference-maker? |
| 1:03 |
: I assume they’ll trade Gray for a bounty at some point. That’s what they do.
|
| 1:03 |
You're welcome. |
| 1:03 |
Hey Eno, when it comes to drops/pickups/whatevers in your keeper/dynasty league, what stats and projections do you find most valuable? xFIP for pitchers? BABIP/ISO for hitters? |
| 1:04 |
: Pitchers — K%, BB%, GB%, Velocity, swSTR, swSTR per pitch types, GB per pitch types, ball rates per pitch types, F-Strike%.
Hitters — K%, BB%, batted ball distance (sorta, we don’t know when they stabilize), GB/FB, PU%. |
| 1:04 |
Khris davis finding his groove? |
| 1:04 |
: I had him down for .250/25 and I think he can do it.
|
| 1:05 |
I am a Red Sox fan. They are 8 games out of first place. They have a negative run differential. They only have 2 starters that are pitching well. By WRC they have a below average offense. Unless Price makes them a contender this year (and they aren’t playing good baseball right now) why give up anything for him? |
| 1:05 |
: They’re completely set up for a trade for a pitcher, this year or next, because they have plenty of decent-upside lower-ranked pitching prospects and may not have the time to wait around for them all to find themselves.
|
| 1:05 |
Erlin gona be back to a home starter when hes back? |
| 1:06 |
: yes. Actually has three decent pitches and okay K-BB too.
|
| 1:06 |
Do you think Carson ever finally settles down with a nice 22+ infield prospect, with 60+ contact, hit, and speed? |
| 1:06 |
: He was so happy to get Jace from me for Ryu. I was happy to get Ryu and keep Addison Russell, who floats my boat a little more. (I believe in his power more).
|
| 1:06 |
Gray to Boston….mmmmmmmmmmmmm |
| 1:06 |
: See?
|
| 1:07 |
I think therefore I tate |
| 1:07 |
Nick franklin to the a’s? |
| 1:07 |
: Interesting. Possible, depending on what the Mariners ask for.
|
| 1:07 |
looking to trade for david price involving giving up kazmir. Yay or nay? |
| 1:07 |
: YES. Kaz velocity going down, always an injury risk.
|
| 1:07 |
Heyward worth acquiring or lost cause? |
| 1:08 |
: He’s figuring it out now, and I htink he could end around .260/20/15
|
| 1:08 |
Eno, Do you have a preference between Hamels and Zimmermann? |
| 1:08 |
: Hamels.
|
| 1:08 |
Who’s next year’s George Springer? |
| 1:08 |
: Javier Baez or Jorge Bonifacio?
|
| 1:08 |
They're downplaying Yordano's injury – it's gonna be about 9 weeks…then he has to learn how to pitch differently….build up velocity through first few innings. Not worth the spot ROS – http://www.marianjoylibrary.org/residency/docum |
| 1:09 |
What do you think is a realistic expectation on Buxton’s ETA given the injury? Thanks. |
| 1:09 |
: September
|
| 1:09 |
Any thoughts on Oberholtzer? Decent underlying peripherals. Thanks. |
| 1:09 |
: I don’t believe. Just a curve, and it’s not that great.
|
| 1:10 |
Do you think the Mets “should” be perennial contenders? (Given that they play in a massive market, and if they didn’t have poor owners.) |
| 1:10 |
: Once they build a sustainable approach in the minors, yes. Look at the Braves, with a terrible TV deal (worst in baseball) and 85 million pay rolls. Mets could 110-120 every eyar.
|
| 1:11 |
RANK ROS: Craig, Heyward, Myers, Kemp |
| 1:11 |
: Heyward Myers Kemp Craig (Craig is like a .280/18 gy IMO)
|
| 1:11 |
Louis CK bought Babe Ruths House for 2.5 what a pimp |
| 1:12 |
: And yet he’s on TV all the time showing us his most awkward moments. Awkward ass pimp.
|
| 1:12 |
I picked Doolittle up in my 12tean H2H and already have three closers. What should I be looking for on the trade market with him? I was offered Moreland, turned it down and then countered and tried to get Alex Wood. |
| 1:12 |
: Trade one of the closers ahead of him for more.
|
| 1:12 |
Since when do the A’s trade SPs with less than a year of service time? |
| 1:13 |
: I’m not saying now, I’m saying eventually. I doubt they trade Russell, and if they do anything about 2b and SP until they trade Gray, it’s all around the edges like Pomeranz and Kazmir.
|
| 1:13 |
Kemp is barely playing and you have him above craig ROS? how’s that? |
| 1:13 |
: Trade/injury/upside. It’s a good critique, but Kemp’s fantasy uspsde is way better than Craig’s.
|
| 1:14 |
General roto league strategy question: with an underperforming team, do you think it’s better to address team needs early or wait for dump trades for keepers before the deadline? |
| 1:14 |
: Your team should regress towards the mean in a positive way, so I’d work around the edges and then sell later if it doesnt’ work out.
|
| 1:14 |
Verlander for McHugh/A-Ram? ROS, really? What’s a reasonable dynasty deal look like for Verlander? |
| 1:15 |
: I’ve been trying to get guys like Bailey and Hamels for him, but I’ve heard Altuve, and I think you’ll do better if you sell for a hitter.
|
| 1:15 |
Alexei Ramirez – what will he do going forward? So solid thru two months, but so far above career level. |
| 1:15 |
: Have to think the steals will calm down at some point.
|
| 1:15 |
It would be far easier if someone taped Wilpon making racist statements |
| 1:15 |
: Yes.
|
| 1:15 |
Bryant’s glove may not be MLB ready, but his bat has to be. Can’t he work his glove at Iowa? |
| 1:15 |
: Of course. I was just saying it’s not a great place to work on it in Chicago.
|
| 1:15 |
Does the Oscar Taveras era begin next week? |
| 1:16 |
: That was the rumor. Super two is coming up sometime in June.
|
| 1:16 |
Is Khris Davis just on a lucky streak, or has he figured something out at the plate? I had already dropped him on one league, and was close to doing so in another. |
| 1:16 |
: Just a guy with bad plate discipline and great power. They tend to be volatile.
|
| 1:17 |
Really want Betts. My league has Minors spots and most of my rookies wont’ be eligible next year. I am also competing and need some SP help. My depth at the prospect level is polanco, meyer, pederson, singleton. Do you think say, Polanco for Betts and Iwakuma is too much? Or should I refocus? What type of player you think is fair to add to polanco to get Betts/Iwakuma style SP? |
| 1:17 |
: You know, that’s not terrible and I like Polanco!
|
| 1:17 |
Corn beef or Pastrami? Important. |
| 1:17 |
: The fattiness of corn beef cannot be ignored.
|
| 1:17 |
HEY ENO, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF MY SHOW?!!!!! |
| 1:17 |
: PLEASE STOP YELLING I CAN’T HANDLE IT
|
| 1:18 |
: Seriously, that show is so bad that I sometimes decide to turn off MLBN jsut to avoid him yelling at me.
|
| 1:18 |
I can't handle yelling either. |
| 1:19 |
Did I screw up here? I traded away McCutch, Freeman, Prado and Gray for Tulo, Moss, Teixeira, and Verlander. I badly need hrs and rbi’s. |
| 1:19 |
: You got best SS in the deal, Moss gonna get you more homers than Freeman, but wish it wasn’t Verlander in there.
|
| 1:19 |
How many years for the Mets to contend, while we’re on the subject? Their hitting doesn’t look great at any level… |
| 1:20 |
: I think they’re about a year away from having a good staff. With a few signings, maybe one big trade, they could be 2-3 years away. I see light at end of tunnel actually.
|
| 1:20 |
Will the podcast be on a more regular schedule with Nick on board? I love the show, but the inconsistent schedule leaves me wanting… |
| 1:20 |
: Tuesdays and Thursdays should happen from now on. It’s our job!
|
| 1:20 |
Derek Norris or Montero RoS? |
| 1:20 |
: Still Montero because of PT.
|
| 1:21 |
E. Santana was also dropped or McHugh is available… |
| 1:21 |
: Santana with the changep for me.
|
| 1:21 |
Guy asked me if I would trade Kris Byrant or Maikel Franco. I told it would take Wil Myers. Fair or too much? |
| 1:21 |
: Asking a bit much.
|
| 1:21 |
Marte for segura…obp keeper..who wins? |
| 1:22 |
: Since both aren’t great OBP guys, I’ll take the SS unless you in a shallow league. In a 12-14+ with MIs, there’s some positional value that probably trumps the 7 or so homers Marte has on Segura.
|
| 1:22 |
I just dealt away cespedes for yelich and Dee in a keeper. win/lose/push? |
| 1:23 |
: Win and I love YC as a buy low. Because Yelich is doing a lot of great things right now. Improving his work vs LHP, showing pre-power stuff, and he’s young. I like it.
|
| 1:23 |
I used to work in a deli and when a customer would ask what the difference was between corned beef and pastrami we would say “one is a fatty meat, the other a meaty fat.” |
| 1:23 |
are you sure your alter ego isn’t adam ottovino |
| 1:23 |
: Totally love Ottavino. also VINO
|
| 1:23 |
This is all your fault, ENO! |
| 1:23 |
: Yeah I lobby
|
| 1:23 |
How will the Summer of TJ affect next years auctions/drafts? |
| 1:24 |
: Maybe we’ll stop hearing about how we should be spending just as much on pitching as for hitting.
|
| 1:24 |
Do you like Wood? Cause I love Wood |
| 1:24 |
Why can’t monsters get along with other monsters? |
| 1:24 |
Watching Chris Russo is like watching a train wreck. You can’t stop staring yet you are sick to your stomach as you watch. |
| 1:24 |
: Late lude.
|
| 1:24 |
not sure if you’re passing on the votto questions or if you didn’t see them….what’s your take on his health? think he plays 75 games? would you trade Alexei Ramirez for him? |
| 1:25 |
: I would trade him but would want more. He says he’ll be fine soon, it’s just a quad.
|
| 1:25 |
re: mets contention – you are saying 2-3 MORE years? LOL, harvey will be on his way to the yankees by then and Wright will be older than dirt, plus theyll be paying granderson not to play and using that as an excuse to not spend money |
| 1:26 |
: I think the pitching will be pretty damn good next year. They’ll have Wheeler, Harvey, Niese, and then one or two of the guys that prove themselves this year. That’s a good staff imo, and the losers go into the pen and make the pen good.
|
| 1:26 |
: But it’s figuring out the lineup that makes me say they need another year. And why would Harvey be gone in three years, they’d own him for more than that.
|
| 1:26 |
So is your bar opening dream on hold? |
| 1:27 |
: Yeah, bars fall apart. BeerGraphs is forever.
|
| 1:27 |
tell nick to get a better mic |
| 1:27 |
: Already done.
|
| 1:27 |
THEY’RE MONSTERS. |
| 1:27 |
YOU MONSTER |
| 1:27 |
How can one easily get swstrk% per pitch type? Are you using whiff rates by Brooks and then only counting pitches swung on? |
| 1:27 |
: We have swinging strike by pitch type on the Pitch fx tab on every pitchers’ page.
|
| 1:27 |
Would you trade Kluber for Pedroia in a dynasty league? I have Prado at 2b. |
| 1:28 |
: No, Pedroia worries me now. We had the thumb excuse this year, but maybe injury will keep him from ever hitting more than 10 homers in a season again. And steals fall apart quickly and he was never a big steals guy.
|
| 1:28 |
Any worries about Morneau going forward? What about Solarte? They have both really dropped off. |
| 1:28 |
: Injury for Morneau, BABIP regression for Solarte.
|
| 1:29 |
Maybe you should ask the guy who turns into a werewolf during every chat why monsters can’t get along? |
| 1:29 |
: I was thinking about it but then asvALSKFWE AI’M A VAMPIRE
|
| 1:29 |
Everybody’s going nuts about the Blue Jays because they’ve been hot lately, but do you think they can really contend for anything with that rotation? |
| 1:29 |
: Queue the Samardzija rumors.
|
| 1:30 |
Really? Kaz for Price? Kaz has been soo much better… |
| 1:30 |
: I don’t trust that injury history on Kaz, especially with a two mph drop on his fastball this year.
|
| 1:30 |
You trust Shields at Toronto tonight? |
| 1:30 |
: Every-starter.
|
| 1:30 |
It's not Super Prince, but it'll do. |
| 1:31 |
harveys service clock started in 2012, which measn the mets control him through 2017 season. he is a boras client, so he wont be taking any team friendly deals. he is a die-hard yankees fan, so he will end up there as a FA eventually if not before… if the mets offense will take until 2016-2017 to get better, they arent competing with matt harvey as an ace |
| 1:32 |
: Lots of ways to compete. They have Harvey to 2018. They could compete with that staff and one FA bat.
|
| 1:32 |
If E5 hits 14 HRs every month, he will finish with 108 HRs. Fact. I did the math |
| 1:32 |
Please don’t get too self-conscious about your yeahs. I know it now to mean you are thinking hard about the question |
| 1:33 |
: Also pulling up a page. Which means I should do more research and fewer ums and yeahs. It’s cool, I’ll still be me and you’ll still get them ,but I think I’ve been cutting them down a bit with more prep work.
|
| 1:33 |
: (And I mean they have Harvey until the end of 2018. I’ll say it: the mets will make the playoffs with Harvey on the team. Really not that crazy a thing to say.)
|
| 1:33 |
Looking at the Pitch Fx from last night it says Kaz was back up to 92.8 on the fastball |
| 1:34 |
: that would be interesting. Max or sitting?
|
| 1:34 |
Hey Eno! Thoughts on Matt Cain? That HR/FB can’t stay that high right? RIGHT?!?! |
| 1:34 |
: Yeah I don’t think so.
|
| 1:34 |
: He should give up fewer homers with a couple good starts at home.
|
| 1:34 |
Bailey looked good against the Dodgers last night better things to come? |
| 1:34 |
: I’ve been on him as a buy low forever.
|
| 1:34 |
i thought the yeahs were a tribute to LCD soundsystem |
| 1:34 |
: Not the yeah yeah yeahs?
|
| 1:35 |
How does one become credentialed? in a nutshell |
| 1:35 |
: Work fulltime for a company that’s in the BBWAA.
|
| 1:35 |
Tommy la STELLLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!! |
| 1:35 |
When you have so many players in the mlb, a few uhms and yea’s is perfectly acceptable. |
| 1:35 |
Yeah’s and um’s don’t bother me as much as people who insert the syllable bro into every other word. If i have to deal with those people for too long everything goes red and I wake up with a dirty shovel in my hands and bloody plastic in the back of my car. |
| 1:35 |
lcd is better |
| 1:35 |
UPDATE: Guy asked me to include Rubby de La Rosa in the Syndergaard deal and I asked him to include Stryker Trahan. Silly move? should I just pull the trigger on Trumbo, Edurado, deGrom and Rubby for Syndergaard? At the finish line, help me cross it Eno |
| 1:36 |
: wait, you’re giving up Trumbo and all those pieces and getting Trahan and Thor back? PULL OUT PULL OUT even Thor has a 60% bust rate.
|
| 1:37 |
David Price’s fluctiating Velocity worrisome? seems like hiding an arm injury? |
| 1:38 |
: it is a bit weird http://www.fangraphs.com/pi… but if you look at any random part of his last two years, you can see some similar stretches.
|
| 1:38 |
Danny Duffy a lost cause? |
| 1:38 |
: That command.
|
| 1:38 |
PULL OUT PULL OUT is easier said than done… |
| 1:38 |
Jah Thunder / Lightning — Hughes or Hammel ? |
| 1:39 |
: Hughes
|
| 1:39 |
: HEY
|
| 1:39 |
: Are we all here?
|
| 1:39 |
: CAn we ?
|
| 1:39 |
Yes we are |
| 1:39 |
: Do I hear?
|
| 1:39 |
could it be? |
| 1:39 |
yup |
| 1:39 |
oh snap |
| 1:39 |
((makes explosion sound)) |
| 1:39 |
Ready over here. |
| 1:39 |
scurred |
| 1:39 |
BOOOOOOOOOOM grgle grlge! |
| 1:40 |
: LIGHTNING ROUND LIGHTNING
|
| 1:40 |
its so loud |
| 1:40 |
tingle, tingle |
| 1:40 |
Cuddyer or Castro, OBP matters! |
| 1:40 |
: Castro
|
| 1:40 |
whats going on in my pants? |
| 1:40 |
Eaton or Maybin? |
| 1:40 |
: Eaton
|
| 1:40 |
Hanley? |
| 1:40 |
: injured by good
|
| 1:40 |
Myers for Sonny Gray? |
| 1:40 |
: I’ll take Gray.
|
| 1:40 |
Wright or Donaldson? |
| 1:41 |
: Donaldson????
|
| 1:41 |
Peralta, McHugh, Vogelsong rank ROS please and thank you. |
| 1:41 |
: McHugh Peralta ………………………………………………… Vogelsong
|
| 1:41 |
ubaldo or mchugh? |
| 1:41 |
: Mchugh
|
| 1:41 |
Need Bats: Hutchison for Victorino? |
| 1:41 |
: Sure
|
| 1:41 |
Paxton or Odorizzi ? |
| 1:41 |
: Ug wait on Paxton
|
| 1:41 |
Jose Veras still worth a flyer? |
| 1:41 |
: no
|
| 1:41 |
stout or ipa? |
| 1:41 |
: IPA
|
| 1:41 |
What’s yer sandwich today |
| 1:42 |
: ham swiss sriracha on bagel
|
| 1:42 |
Shark for Price? |
| 1:42 |
: Shark
|
| 1:42 |
Smoak or Ike? |
| 1:42 |
: Ike
|
| 1:42 |
Kluber or Anibal? |
| 1:42 |
: Kluber
|
| 1:42 |
Gausman or Stroman this year? |
| 1:42 |
: Gausman
|
| 1:42 |
Who would win in a fight, Iggy Pop on drugs or Don Zimmer circa 2003/4 |
| 1:42 |
: IGGY
|
| 1:43 |
Bailey or Hamels ROS? |
| 1:43 |
: Hamels
|
| 1:43 |
Seager or Dominguez? |
| 1:43 |
: Seager
|
| 1:43 |
Soria or Kazmir? |
| 1:43 |
: Kaz, make him add something small
|
| 1:43 |
Cody Allen or Ottavino? |
| 1:43 |
: Allen, they haven’t yet taken role from LTH
|
| 1:43 |
Frank Black or Black Francis? |
| 1:43 |
: Frank
|
| 1:43 |
FWIW, Kazmir’s 92.8 velo last night was average, touched 96. |
| 1:43 |
AJax or Myers |
| 1:44 |
: Myers
|
| 1:44 |
GRAY FOR HANLEY? |
| 1:44 |
: Hanley
|
| 1:44 |
Jennings, Fowler or Ozuna? |
| 1:44 |
: Jennings
|
| 1:44 |
hugs or kisses? |
| 1:44 |
: Hugs take less commitment
|
| 1:44 |
Seth Smith or Joyce? Or both and platoon? |
| 1:44 |
: both, platoon, joyce if both starting.
|
| 1:44 |
Pablo or Seager? |
| 1:44 |
: SEager
|
| 1:44 |
So if I’m offered Homer Bailey for Morse I have to make that trade right?? |
| 1:44 |
: yes
|
| 1:45 |
lsd is best |
| 1:45 |
Maybin or Duda? |
| 1:45 |
: Duda
|
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
My team would be in 1st if it were roto 5×5 (it’s a 12 team h2h pts) w/ (Darvish, Tanaka, Wacha, Richards, Goldy, Braun, Abreu, Brantley, etc). Record is 5-3. Due to h2h matchups, sometimes the other team just scores more pts than you. Will the best team likely win out in the long run in these h2h formats? Doesn’t roto just make so much more sense than h2h pts leagues?
Probably. Depends on scoring tho, I enjoy points because it values players for their entire skill levels. i.e. Adam Jones is worth much less than Edwin despite somewhat HR and AVG because AJ strikes out a lot and never walks, whereas Edwin rarely K’s and walks a lot. Also the head to head aspect makes it more competitive IMO. But yes, I do think Roto more accurately rewards the better players.