Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 6/19/14
11:46 |
: heyo
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11:48 |
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11:48 |
: My namesake did a thing.
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12:00 |
HI! |
12:00 |
: Where’s cheech?
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12:00 |
TNAX FOR RTICUL BOUT ME |
12:00 |
Who would you rather have pitch for your fantasy team for the rest of the season. AJ Burnett or Jake Arrieta (K/9 on top of reg 5 categories) |
12:00 |
: Arrieta! He doesn’t have a hernia!
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12:00 |
Mike Minor for Anibal Sanchez, who wins? 6×6 Roto Dynasty League with QS. |
12:00 |
: Anibal despite the fact that he makes me nervous, shoulder-wise.
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12:00 |
Sup Eno. I saw you mention some feedback you’re excited to incorporate into S&B. Any teasers for us? |
12:01 |
: Just got to be snappier. And also make sure my internet connection doesn’t suck.
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12:01 |
With Harang getting killed last night, do you think A. Wood gets the call for doubleheader on 6/28 and stays up after that? |
12:01 |
: Totally had that thought. Knew Floyd or Harang would go, I think it’s Harang now.
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12:01 |
Pitch rates, velocity, GB%, IH*IO#H WEREWOLF YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo |
12:01 |
ENO CHAAAAAAAAAAAT ENO ENO ENO ENO CHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT * explodes * |
12:01 |
![]() Small Craft on a Milk Sea is better. Then again this is even better than his Warp stuff: |
12:02 |
: Apparently this chat is dangerous. #luded
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12:02 |
On Sleeper/Bust you got me fired up about Betts. Assuming ESPN has him as a 2B do I drop Hill for him AFTER he comes up? |
12:02 |
: Would love to have him on my bench, but ESPN doesn’t have him in the system, so good luck.
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12:02 |
whats up with kyle gibson? in the last month, he’s among the league leaders in swstr% and GB%. |
12:04 |
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12:04 |
I can’t believe I’m asking this – drop Mauer for Rosario? |
12:04 |
: Nah, Rosario has his own problems.
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12:04 |
Hi Eno. Thanks as always for doing the chat. I need your guidance this weekend! Was Marcus Stroman’s start at Yankee Stadium something to worry about, or simply one of those speedbumps a young pitcher like him is bound to go through? And most importantly, should I start him in Cincinnati on Sunday? |
12:05 |
: I’d be careful about starting him in homer-happy stadiums.
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12:05 |
Any other pitchers you think could benefit from the Jesse Chavez Legacy? |
12:05 |
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12:06 |
Hey Eno! I’ve got a UTL spot up for grabs…who do you like better ROS…Belly Butter or Neil Walker? |
12:06 |
: Walker will hit more homers!
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12:06 |
Who would you rather have ROS, Kendrys or V-Mart? |
12:06 |
: VMart.
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12:06 |
Please, please, pretty please, tell me that Kevin Gausman has pitched himself into Baltimore’s starting rotation. If they demote him again, I may cry. |
12:06 |
I have Gausman in a minors spot (and can keep him there indefinitely… I’ve been waiting until I was sure he had a role). Call him up and lose Kuroda? |
12:07 |
: Y’all know I love Gausman. Slider’s still bad and the four-seamer is worse than it should be, but I liked his command in the last start. And he’s the only guy that *could* be an ace, so I think he’s in.
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12:07 |
When–if–he signs, would you rather have Carlos Rodon or Archie Bradley in a keep-forever league? |
12:07 |
: Rodon.
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12:07 |
: Don’t like Bradley’s command issues.
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12:07 |
Thoughts on Eugenio Suarez as of June 19, 2014? |
12:07 |
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12:07 |
Ever had Sam Smith’s Organic Ale? It’s pretty awesome |
12:08 |
: Sam Smith is under-rated, in my opinion. Their milk stout is about the sweetest beer you’ll ever have, but I like their beers in general.
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12:08 |
Did you read that article on Effective velocity? If so what are your thoughts on it? And, good luck playing goalie again in Mexico’s next wc game. |
12:08 |
: The one thing that Chris Young convinced me of is that there are things about deception and effective velocity that are not yet quantified and that a team that does so will have a step ahead.
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12:08 |
Over/Under David Wright 2014 totals: 15 HR 80 RBI |
12:08 |
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12:09 |
I have sometimes thought of listening to everything Brian Eno wrote or produced, over however long that takes. |
12:09 |
: Oh yeah that would take a long ass time.
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12:09 |
what do you think of Ben Zobrist’s wife’s music |
12:09 |
: Dunno, let’s check it out.
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12:09 |
:
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12:09 |
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12:10 |
What pitchers would you move for Ryan Zimmerman? Gray? Bailey? Cole? |
12:10 |
: Bailey.
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12:10 |
Abreu 35% HR/FB and 20 HRs. How many HR’s in the 2nd half as the first figure regresses? |
12:10 |
: I think he might just hit a few more fly balls and still hit a lot of homers.
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12:10 |
Eno thanks for your work week in and week out. Please Rank the following ROS: Heaney, Stroman, Gausman, Arrieta |
12:10 |
: Gausman Arrieta Heaney Stroman
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12:10 |
All-time favorite sour beer? |
12:11 |
: Russian River Consecration or Almanac Sour Porter or The Bruery The Wanderer or Drei Fonteinen St Lamvinus.
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12:11 |
I know you said that you normally wait till the 5th round to draft your first pitcher in a 6×6 league. How long would you wait if you were in a ROTO league with 6 hitting categories and 4 pitching categories (granted one category is saves)? |
12:11 |
: Even longer. 8-10th.
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12:11 |
I feel bad for Ben if he’s forced to listen to that. |
12:11 |
: My ears!
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12:12 |
Eno, great article today on Arrieta, in a keeper league, would you pick him up and drop either Liriano or Estrada? |
12:12 |
: I think Liriano is droppable.
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12:12 |
Hey Eno, I have Eddie Rosario on my milb squad in a dynasty league, he likes to smoke doobies lol but do you think he will be useful going forward i know that brian dozier looks like he will stick at 2nd but eddie rosario plays 2nd and they are using him in the outfield so do you think that he will be useful going forward to the twins and to my fantasy team like getting home run hits thank you eno i enjoy your chats and i like it when you answer my questions because it helps me to find out who is useful for my team like maybe eddie rosario will be good? |
12:12 |
: I’m really worried about Rosario. Don’t love his swing, don’t love the history, don’t love the plate approach. Think he might be a bust.
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12:12 |
Maybe Zobrist’s wife can move easily btwn diff genres of music like he can play multiple positions, easily. She might do a mean Bach on violin. |
12:13 |
![]() I watched Space Jam last night (Great movie) and Ya..this.. |
12:13 |
Would Juliana Zobrist be happier living in Toronto or Oakland? |
12:13 |
AHHHHHHHHHH |
12:13 |
: Sorry guys.
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12:13 |
: Sticking within the genre, sorta, let’s do new music.
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12:13 |
:
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12:13 |
What are your early impressions of Odor? Will he be a 12 team MI starter next year? (if he has a starting job) |
12:14 |
: Yeah that’s important though. Where will he play? Outfield? Seems a waste. I do think he can be top18 if he has a job.
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12:15 |
Jesse Hahn….Got enough to stick around this season? |
12:15 |
: I really like him. But. I really like that I found him in my 20-team dynasty. Dunno beyond that. Great curve and fastballs, but I think he needs another pitch.
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12:15 |
You think with the rise of craft brewing that we will see a boom in canned craft beer soon? Longer shelf life, better for distribution and can take cans more places. |
12:15 |
: It’s happening. Bell’s is canning now, others will follow.
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12:16 |
I had a funny thought that the Braves could go after Ben Zobrist to bolster the offense, play him every day wherever that may be, and still not have to openly acknowledge that the Upton and Johnson contracts are awful by replacing one of them. That make any sense? Would Tampa really deal Zobrist, or do they only sell Price at the deadline? |
12:16 |
: I just feel like this team was good last year and is mostly under contract for next year. I think it’s only Price.
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12:16 |
What’s your opinion of Derek Norris? |
12:17 |
: love that caveman. Improved his strikeout rate, I’d bet by looking at fewer strike threes, and the aggression has helped him. Playing against righties now. Love him. Have him in a mixed league even.
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12:17 |
Does Ramirez end up getting the closer gig in Chicago? |
12:17 |
: I think he has it now?
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12:17 |
Drop Everth Cabrera to stash Betts? I have Suarez to fill in the interim, could make a trade for Alcides or someone of that ilk. |
12:17 |
: I think I’d drop Suarez for Betts.
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12:17 |
What about Seth Smith’s Organic Ale? |
12:17 |
: Only like it two thirds of the time.
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12:17 |
Jesse Chavez or Chase Whitley? |
12:18 |
: Great question because who has more innings this year? Feel like the A’s might just pitch Chavez all year. Unsure Yanks will when they fall out.
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12:18 |
Is James Jones, a legit threat to steal 30 total bags by seasons’s end? Already at 10 in under 155 PAs. |
12:18 |
: Yes.
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12:18 |
do u have a dog |
12:18 |
: cat
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12:18 |
Favorite Dead song? |
12:19 |
: Sugar Magnolia, sorry I know. Or Estimated Prophet.
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12:19 |
REQUEST: Eno, any chance we can get a deep piece on MI guys? Rankings are nice but, for us deep-leaguers, we could really use a stat dive on the SS and 2B outside of the top 8-10 at their positions. For example, Gennett is top 10 in WRC+, wOBA, and Off WAR for the position but the production has been moderate. Its hard to contextualize the value of his peripherals. |
12:19 |
: I would say that we normally go pretty deep, but I’ll make sure the MI guys know of this request!
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12:19 |
Eno! I don’t use Untapped, so I’m part of the problem, but I was pleasantly surprised to find so many great brewers that didn’t show up on Beergraphs on my tour through the upper south. Diamond Bear and Core in Arkansas, Blackstone and Memphis Made in TN, as well as the listed Yazoo and Lazy Magnolia in MS… Summary: there is a lot of great beer! Also: BEER!!! |
12:19 |
: Yeah there is great small beer everywhere!
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12:19 |
Will I get rocked by the Reds today? |
12:19 |
: Yes.
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12:20 |
Thoughts on Hutchinson in NY tonight? |
12:20 |
: Nervous.
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12:20 |
Dellon Betances — Best or Supa Dupa Best? |
12:20 |
: Supa Dupa Koopa Troopa Best.
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12:20 |
Heaney gonna be treated similar to Salazar last year (5 inning, 80 pitches)? |
12:20 |
: Marlins seem to just let their guys go.
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12:20 |
i noticed that Sabathia and Liriano are available in just about all my leagues and I need a 6th starter…that means dropping Hutchison or e. Santana or kuroda. What do you think? |
12:21 |
: No thanks. Well, maybe if Hutch gets rocked tonight, I’d drop him, DL CC just in case he’s better when his knee is better, and then pick up someone else.
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12:21 |
I have tracked BABIP and FIP/xFIP for a long time but I don’t know if I’m using it correctly. How do you use it as an indicator and how can it help me to determine who’s gonna be good? |
12:22 |
: I’d try to move on to more effective small-sample metrics. Look at K%-BB%. Look at GB%. Crazy HR/FBs over 20% should regress towards the league average (10%). High swinging strike rates usually beget good K% unless you’re Jaime Garcia.
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12:22 |
If you had to give an exact date for Mookie Betts to be called up, what day would you pick? |
12:22 |
: June 24th. My birthday.
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12:22 |
Does last night strengthen Kershaw’s 2014 Cy Young case? 1.60 FIP, ERA heading in that direction, 12 K/9, the writers just might forgive being short 2 or 3 starts. |
12:23 |
: yeah he has that iconic moment going for him.
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12:23 |
lagunitas is already thinking about building brewery #3 |
12:23 |
: Yeah, Tony Magee did tell me that when I interviewed him. Felt that building new ones kept him closer to his customers.
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12:23 |
Do you prefer McCann or Norris for a roto league with BA, OBP & SLG as categories? |
12:24 |
: I’m still not dropping McCann for Norris because of PA, and their regression arrows are pointing in different directions.
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12:24 |
What kind of haul should I be able to get for ol’ Kershaw right about now? Points H2H league. Keeper league too. |
12:24 |
: Anything you want, but if you’re trying to get Trout or Puig, you’ll probably have to add someone like Leonys Martin to bridge the gap between pitcher and hitter.
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12:24 |
What’s up with Jay Bruce? Usually by now he’s had one or two of his patented hot streaks but can’t seem to put it together, even in age 27 prime season. |
12:24 |
: Well he was hurt, give him another week or two.
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12:24 |
Billy Hamilton or HILLY BAMILTON |
12:24 |
: Obvious.
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12:25 |
Do you follow futbol? Seems MLB’s new technologies for tracking positioning, etc., would have a huge benefit in evaluating players in soccer. Do you know if any leagues are using advanced videometrics (if that’s a word)? |
12:25 |
: Yes they are working on it, and there’s huge potential there. Not a ton of it makes its way to the internet though.
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12:25 |
Would you rate Arrieta in the Hughes-Keuchel breakout territory? Better, worse? |
12:25 |
: A little worse. His Chaveziation is not complete, and using the cutter a ton does make me a little nervous about health.
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12:25 |
heaneydayheaneydayheaneyday |
12:25 |
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA GOOD MORNING ENO!!!!!! |
12:26 |
: no I’m sorry, whatever I did, I’m sorry
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12:26 |
Am I allowed to get a bit excited about Rubby? Ottoneu points team, $1. |
12:27 |
: Of course. Great change, good slider, 96 mph fastball. Hopefully his control will improve, he won’t have a ton of innings, and he’s only pitching five per game (so wins will be tough) but I love him.
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12:27 |
: I ONLY HATE HIM BECAUSE WHY DID YOU TAKE SO LONG I HAVE NO SHARES NOW
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12:27 |
Best books/websites/general resources for advanced hockey stats? |
12:27 |
: HockeyGraphs is legit, even though jenky eye on the name.
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12:27 |
Is Jesse Hahn a no-brainer against the Mariners at home? |
12:27 |
: Yes.
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12:27 |
fun fact acting like your ears are melting when you hear a generic pop song makes you look like a 14 year old who just discovered slipknot |
12:27 |
Fantasy baseball; where the rules are made up and the stats used don’t matter! |
12:28 |
FOLLOW UP: FG does go very deep in the analysis and i love the coverage at FG, sorry for any offense. I believe I misspoke. What I meant is maybe a piece that expounds on the tiers articles. The top two tiers are pretty straight forward but its that mix of relatively unknown commodities in tiers 4, 5, & 6, especially at MI, that makes up some of the more difficult decisions in fantasy leagues. Those players are difficult to trade for and its hard IMHO to sort out the mediocre players from those with legit skill sets. |
12:28 |
: Ah! Interesting!
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12:28 |
Has Polanco’s start given you any reason to adjust expectations for him in 2014? Career? |
12:29 |
: The homer was nice, but best is that he’s got a better-than-average swinging strike rate, so I believe he can <15% K rate, so his batting average should be good. I always hold my breath when a prospect comes up, waiting to see how much contact they can make.
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12:29 |
Is Brock Holt 12 team dynasty relevant? |
12:30 |
: Well, Biggus, I think that he’s a .270 guy with little power or speed once the BABIP drops down, so no.
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12:30 |
: Also, they gonna kill that striker for missing that ball, I bet.
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12:30 |
Brock Holt or Crisp? |
12:30 |
: Crisp like a million times crispy.
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12:30 |
The Legend of Brock Holt |
12:30 |
: The Legend of Aaron Small.
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12:30 |
Left Hand’s Sawtoothe Ale Nitro…yes? |
12:30 |
: Love the brewer, haven’t had the beer.
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12:31 |
Do the Tigers have pieces to make a move for someone like Betances? Seems like a match made in heaven. |
12:31 |
: Not sure there’s a team match there. Yanks don’t have a closer under contract next year.
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12:31 |
Keeper league catcher: Norris or Ramos? |
12:31 |
: NORRIS
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12:31 |
Arrieta or Colon? |
12:31 |
: Arrieta
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12:31 |
What’s the deal with the Mets and Dan Murphy?? I’m not hearing anything about an extension, are you? If no extension, then don’t they really have to deal him now? The stars are aligning…contending teams needing 2B upgrades (Giants, Jays, A’s) and Murphy having another strong year with the stick… |
12:32 |
: yeah they talking about trading Murphy in the press and asking the GM, it’s going to happen IMO. And better do it now than too late (Ike) or never (Reyes).
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12:32 |
Will Danny Duffy dominate 2day? |
12:32 |
: Very nervous about him. Traded away my only share. Not a great K-BB and his pitch type peripherals are terrible across the board.
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12:33 |
A sad fact, yo mama smokes crack. She got a burnin yearnin and there’s no turnin back. |
12:33 |
: SHE’S GOT A PEG LEG WITH A KICK STAND
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12:33 |
:
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12:33 |
sawtooth ale nitro no, just tastes like flat beer. wake up dead nitro is a strong yes, however |
12:33 |
For what its worth (and he is a snake oil salesman so i dont believe it) Sandy A told a group of season ticket holders before the last homestand that he is absolutely not trading Daniel Murphy bc they need guys who can play and hit in new york and he is one of them |
12:34 |
: For what it’s worth, all GMs are snake oil salesmen and you should never believe what they say.
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12:34 |
I can haz job back? |
12:34 |
: They keep talking about it, but Allen’s good.
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12:34 |
i might be late… BUT I MADE IT! |
12:34 |
: Violin music. LOOKS LIKE WE MADE IT
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12:34 |
Seems like fantasy analysts always have a flavor of the week, Arrieta or McCarthy ROS? |
12:35 |
: My flavor of the week brings all the boys to the yard. I see some declining velocity from McCarthy and no change-up. Those guys could both be high threes, but JA will have more Ks.
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12:35 |
I’ve got Bailey about to go againt PIT. Am I going to regret it? |
12:35 |
: nope.
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12:35 |
Do you think Everth Cabrera is toast? I am strongly considering dropping him for Chris Owings. I am first in SB, last in BA. Also, considering stashing Betts since I have Solarte to fill in. Thoughts? |
12:36 |
: You have a better fall back plan than Suarez. You can go for Betts. Cabrera gonna hit .240 with 35 steals or so this year IMO.
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12:36 |
Redraft H2H points…Other members really like trading for pitching. My Kluber and Perkins for his Braun and Minor? Go for it? |
12:36 |
: yes.
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12:36 |
So Soriano is bad, but like at what full-time player do you draw the line? Would you drop him for James Jones/Nava kind of guys? Or are you hoping for a PT rebound? |
12:36 |
: I’d drop him for Jones. Soriano’s looking like a vLHP platoon bat now.
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12:36 |
Thoughts on Kluber the rest of the way? He just a mid rotation regular or do you expect him to continue to excel? |
12:37 |
: Have loved him for a long time.
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12:37 |
How do you find SwStr% leaderboards by pitch? I was wondering if there was an easier way to do it than by going through the PITCHf/x data on SQL. |
12:37 |
: yeah I don’t got it. But I did post a piece on the swinging strike benchmarks for pitch type, so if you just keep 15% in mind for sliders and changeups (11% for curves), you can have a good idea without a leaderboard.
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12:37 |
KC is hitting now that the fired their hitting coach? Why do teams wait 2 months into the season to realize their hitting coach is bad? |
12:39 |
: Hitting coaches matter only when it comes to being patient or aggressive, IMO. The Royals’ problem is that they all hit too many GBs except Moustakas who his everything straight up. Seitzer fixed that for Gordon, so I guess a hitting coach could do it, but Butler/Hoz/Mous aren’t going to go to great lengths to change their approach IMO.
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12:39 |
poopie or poopy? |
12:39 |
: Gotta go IE because you’re already not saying the bad word.
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12:39 |
What was the Nats clubhouse like? |
12:40 |
: Up-beat, friendly, but not as calm as some more veteran clubhouses I’ve been in. Could work in their favor.
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12:40 |
Do I need to upgrade in an AL only with a staff of Kluber, Quintana, Keuchel, Lackey, Whitley, and Peacock/Sabathia? |
12:40 |
: Love that staff, although Peacock is droppable to me.
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12:40 |
Mehr Deutsch heute? |
12:40 |
: glaub nicht.
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12:40 |
Is this the real Matt Cain now? What happened to him? |
12:42 |
: He’s kind of a kitchen sink guy. Here’s something people might not know about him: not one of his pitches grades above average on swSTR. Only his change is a great GB pitch. But he has representative pitches and can mix them up with great command. In the past. Command shaky now. So… I’m worried. Have one share and would sell.
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12:42 |
How good is Jimmy Nelson? Will he be in the Brewer’s rotation anytime soon? |
12:42 |
: Might only be a two-pitch guy (slider), so unsure.
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12:43 |
I know it’s a small sample, but do you see Montero etching out a full-time role and bumping out Smoak or someone else? |
12:43 |
: The new acquisitions have been unremarkable and Montero did etch out some improvements… not impossible. Smoak could platoon with someone.
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12:43 |
Follow-up on Betts: Do you think BA translates to MLB? What is his steals pace? |
12:44 |
: Yes, his contact rate is so good he could double his strikeout rate and still have a 15% strikeout rate. With a 10% walk rate. And maybe 30 steals a year? Power is the question. 10? 15?
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12:44 |
Dropped Rosrio for Gattis….cool/uncool? |
12:44 |
: They so similar, and Gattis going better, cool.
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12:44 |
Do you agree with what was said? That’s I’m “fixable”? or is it all Kate Upton’s fault? |
12:45 |
: The velocity ticked up for three games and then dropped away. i’m not buying low. I’ll keep my one share, though, because the offers were crap.
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12:45 |
i just made it and now i have to go. crap. answer this before i go(plzz): for like the rest of his career, whats your opinion on Workman |
12:45 |
: Meh.
|
12:45 |
: Good fastball, but no other pitch is great. The curve is good. Still needs one more, IMO.
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12:46 |
What could the Mets reasonably get for Murph? |
12:46 |
: Would have to look at his surplus value, but guesstimating he could return a top-30 prospect.
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12:46 |
Latos, Arrieta or Gausman ROS? |
12:46 |
: Latos.
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12:46 |
Eno always read and respect your advise….my dilema is I need to get rid of one RP noone will trade in a %X% roto KRod Perkins or Rosenthal Please advise thanks |
12:47 |
: Wut. You have to drop one of those guys? Wow. Uh. Hmmm. Yeah. Uh. K-Rod? worst velocity, team could regress the hardest.
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12:47 |
Sorry but I’m gonna keep asking because I really want an answer! Drop Rosario for Norris? |
12:48 |
: Didn’t I already answer this? Oh I said no on McCann. Well, this one… sure. I think this is okay. Both righties, Norris has way better plate discipline and is showing better now.
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12:48 |
Had Old Chub Nitro a couple days ago, pretty great. Oskar Blues is delicious. |
12:48 |
: Old Chub has summit hops tho. I do like their beers, except that one. All I taste is onions.
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12:48 |
Papi or Chisenhall? |
12:48 |
: Papi.
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12:48 |
I knew informal German could get pretty informal, but dropping the subject AND the ending? |
12:49 |
: That’s how I would have said it!
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12:49 |
Dave Cameron’s article on trusting projections is worth reading for every fantasy player trying to divine hot/cold streaks. |
12:49 |
Is Santana a good buy low guy for leagues with no batting avg? |
12:49 |
: Huh. But you use OBP? If so, no.
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12:49 |
I’m trying to deal one of my CI guys… who’s the best guy to sell: Dunn, Lawrie, Longoria, or Lind? |
12:50 |
: You know, Longo will bring you back the most, and unsure if Lind/Lawrie don’t do about the same as him, maybe a little worse.
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12:50 |
Do you think Alcantara gets a shot at 2B this year? I can’t imagine Barney will block him much longer. Thanks! |
12:50 |
: Barney is available. And I disagree with him, I think he has value to a team that wants help at 2B but doesn’t want to spend a ton.
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12:50 |
yeah but Alderson is particularly slithery. and btw, my preference is to extend Murphy bc it’s true that he’s one of the few that can hit at Citifield… but they don’t seem to want to extend him either… not extending him *and* not trading him is the worst of all options. More crazy fails from that all-star FO that is getting paid more than the entire bullpen…. |
12:51 |
: Got no problems with that bullpen. Love some of those arms. Germen has the best changeup in baseball by swinging strikes. Familia can be a wild setup man. Mejia is going to be a good closer. All cheap. Edgin and Rice are fine. One more of the starters will fail and be a bullpen guy and it’ll be a strength soon.
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12:51 |
I had high hopes for Arcia this season, but he’s not doing much. Is he droppable for someone like Victorino when he comes off the DL? |
12:52 |
: One-tool guy in a park that doesn’t love his one tool. (Dirty) I think he’s droppable yes.
|
12:52 |
a “proven” Danny Salazar worth stashing over prospects like Bradley, Meyers, Bundy, Jimmy Nelson? Had a decent outing last Sunday. |
12:53 |
: I’ll take Danny over those guys yes. All have innings questions, most have talent questions even.
|
12:53 |
Tim Hudson. Ooof. No Ks, 12 hits, 2 HRs. Is this the correction or a sign of things to come? |
12:53 |
: AL park, AL lineup, not a great fit for a guy that ended our interview saying he’ll throw the rosin bag at the plate if he has to.
|
12:53 |
When a hitter/pitcher is beating his projections, what stats do you look at to judge if the improvement will stick? Thanks |
12:54 |
: Pitcher: pitch type peripherals (swinging strike and GB) because there are more pitches than plate appearances. HItter: K%, BB%, GB/FB changes. These things stabilize quicker.
|
12:54 |
Carlos Carrasco has been REALLY good of late. Role ROS? |
12:55 |
: Yeah but so many pitches for a reliever! Maybe he’ll Soria eventually, but he has more velocity. If i was an NL team, I’d trade for him.
|
12:55 |
Please resolve a long standing question between my friends and I – How do you as an expert compare a single pitcher against a single batter?? |
12:56 |
: Compare them in my mind against my particular league’s waiver wire and then adjust the pitcher downward because almost every league treats them that way.
|
12:56 |
3 weeks ago Gausman-sentiments were very negative because of his stuff, now 3 good starts in it is completely different. Did anything change? Just locating well now? |
12:56 |
: yeah better command is all I saw. Slider was still meh.
|
12:56 |
Jeter’s 1-5 with a double last night equalized his OBP and SLG at .327. |
12:56 |
conspiracy theory out there that the wilpons are tanking the mets on purpose to disenfranchise the fan base so there is no uproar when they move the mets elsewhere, the jist being that willets point will be worth more to them as developments than a stadium |
12:57 |
: This seems absolutely nuts to me.
|
12:57 |
Why NL team with Carrasco? |
12:57 |
: Cause a few games with a pitcher and he’ll rack up the Ks, improve his confidence, and confidence goes hand in hand with command from what pitchers tell me. Think of throwing a pitch in the middle of the strike zone if you’re worried it’ll get rocked.
|
12:57 |
Daniel Bard walked or hit 16 of the 18 batters he faced for the Rangers’ Sally League team this year. |
12:58 |
: Sad.
|
12:58 |
Does Whitley have real keeper potential for ROS? Will he ever go more than 5 innings?! |
12:58 |
: That’s how they are limiting his innings. Good bullpen in NY though, so he could get some wins.
|
12:58 |
More on Betts: Does he get 5 starts at 2B? Pedroia is pretty stingy about giving up playing time. |
12:58 |
: he should come in with 2B eligibility though.
|
12:58 |
Soria and DeJesus seem like reasonable trade targets for the Royals and fit needs. Let’s get weird! |
12:59 |
: Well the Rangers would have to give up first.
|
12:59 |
Kemp to the Red Sox…make sense or just pipe dream? |
12:59 |
: Not crazy. But are the Dodgers going to swallow 40 mill to be able to call up Joc?
|
12:59 |
![]() this will change the world. |
1:00 |
I had high hopes for MY BUTT this year but you don’t hear me crying. |
1:00 |
Oh Eno well, You came and you gave without taking, But I sent you away. Oh, Eno well, Kissed me and stopped me from shaking, And I need you today. Oh, Eno! |
1:00 |
: Have you seen my Oh Frenchy rendition? My shining musical moment.
|
1:00 |
So when the music stops, you think Alcantara ends up at 2nd, Baez at 3rd and Bryant in RF? |
1:00 |
: That’s my guess. Or Baez busts.
|
1:00 |
Thoughts on Jarred Cosart tomorrow against David Price? Looking at streaming potential. |
1:01 |
: It’s an okay stream, but I’m never going to start Jarred Cosart.
|
1:01 |
Miguel Sano or Kris Byrant, who would you rather have over the next 5 season and why? |
1:01 |
: Bryant. K rate not as crazy high. Both have possible position switches coming.
|
1:01 |
I need wins and have a staff of Teheran, Kluber, Richards, Stroman, with Derek Holland, Tyler Skaggs, Danny Salazar, Eddie Butler lurking on the DL and in the minors. Should I expect much improvement or make a trade? |
1:02 |
: I wonder if you could pair Skaggs with Stroman to a rebuilder for a good veteran. Might help. I think this is about Skaggs’ true talent level.
|
1:03 |
Respectfully, why do you believe so strongly in the SB & AVG # for Cabrera? (Everth) Walk rate is less than half of 2012/2013’s average, K% almost 10 points higher than last year, WRC+ is 60, WOBA is .254, and he’s only been successful on 68% of attempts (7% lower than 2013,24% lower than 2012). Even if he hits your projected ROS pace (close to second half of 2012’s) the other counting stats are unlikely to be there with the lack of bats in OAK right? |
1:03 |
: Walk rate doesn’t matter to BA. He’s hit .240 with this bad of a K rate before. They still running him out there for now, and he’s still running.
|
1:03 |
Is Bartolo Colon an athlete? |
1:03 |
: Yes.
|
1:04 |
So much Arrieta! I’m like, “arrieta already! that’s enough!” o but seriously would you use him against CIN at home |
1:04 |
: Cincy offense has been better with Votto back, but I like what Jake is doing.
|
1:04 |
Nathan or Balfour? |
1:04 |
: Nathan.
|
1:04 |
Fort George 3 way tastes a lot like enjoy by. |
1:04 |
I’d like to pick up Alex Wood, but would have to part with one of Smyly, Hutchison, Pomeranz (I can’t get enough Drew’s apparently) or Jaime Garcia. Who would you cut? Any of these worth cutting to pick up Whitley? Thanks! |
1:05 |
: Wood over Garcia for me.
|
1:05 |
What do you mean by “share,” when talking about owning a player? What format is that? |
1:05 |
: Just means how many times I won him. I have 15 leagues, the player I own most shares of is probably Dallas Keuchel (five or six).
|
1:06 |
: Matt says this band was good in Europe, so let’s have a listen.
|
1:06 |
:
|
1:06 |
Gregorius or Brad Miller? |
1:07 |
: Miller. he’s waking up.
|
1:07 |
Having a discussion with someone about present vs. projected value. How do I convince him concisely that BABIP has value in discussions of both? Thank you! |
1:08 |
: Across baseball, without fail, year to year, 30% of balls in play go for hits. Very few push past .350 or .250, so numbers beyond that are outliers that will regress to the league mean?
|
1:08 |
My house was literally hit by a tornado 2 days ago. What’s your opinion on Kemp now? Hold? Sell? Wait another week and sell higher? |
1:09 |
: Damn dude. Sorry to hear. Kemp’s looked better and his team could play him, maybe they push Crawford to the bench. The problem is that Kemp is not great v RHP and they have tons of lefties…. I’m holding.
|
1:09 |
Villar gonna keep his job all season |
1:09 |
: Yes, Correa not ready till next year.
|
1:09 |
What’s the one-sentence difference between a four-seamer and two-seamer… other than the number of seams involved? |
1:10 |
: The two-seamer has more arm-side run than the four-seamer and is usually a little slower, which leads to more grounders.
|
1:10 |
Suarez for real? Shallow league: him/rollings/alcideez escobar/ Dan-San for ROS? |
1:10 |
: Rollins.
|
1:10 |
Are you down on Stroman because of his Yankee Stadium start or were you already down him before that? He didn’t pitch badly, just a lot of pitches that limited how deep he could go. |
1:10 |
: I like Stroman. I just think the homers thing is an actual problem right now, and there are a lot of homer-happy parks in his schedule.
|
1:11 |
Brandon Crawford seems to be having a mini-breakout. Do you agree or just a good/lucky first half? |
1:11 |
: He’s done this before. I doubt it’s a breakout.
|
1:11 |
Dickerson didn’t hit all that much on his recent roadtrip. Is he going to be a splits kind of guy ROS? |
1:12 |
: Yeah sucks that some of his best minor league numbers also came at altitude. He’s a bench outfielder because he doesn’t play v LHP. interview with him and Blackmon coming tomorrow.
|
1:12 |
You told that guy to drop Jaime Garca over hutchison (who is falling apart), Smyly (who hasn’t proven he’s a real starter) and Pomeranz (who is hurt)… what the?? Am I missing something? |
1:13 |
: I love having a guy like Pomeranz on my DL, and even though he’s a two-pitch guy, it’s a curve (platoon neutral) and he pitches in Oakland. Smyly has proven himself to me. 29 career starts. Hutchison, yes, that was the name that I stuck at. I like his peripherals, but unsure about the command.
|
1:13 |
Eno, I am on a surf trip in Nicaragua and baseball is very popular down here, more so than soccer even. The beers all seem terrible though, know anything that might help? |
1:14 |
: Get a frozen drink lol. Or just enjoy the alcohol water. Sometimes those countries have stouts on hand, like Guinnes Extra Foreign, but those are pretty thick for that weather.
|
1:14 |
I have 5 not so very good “closers” and usually keep only 4….who gets the boot? Reed, Rondon, britton, qualls McGee? |
1:14 |
: I’d drop Rondon. Ramirez a real threat.
|
1:15 |
Now come on, in fairness, our real beef with Juliana Z’s music should be the writing and production. Admittedly, that could be her, too, but just vocally, she doesn’t present any major issues. |
1:15 |
: Yeah the type of music is really just not going to play with me.
|
1:15 |
Do we trust McAllister in his first game back? |
1:15 |
: I don’t trust him ever.
|
1:15 |
Contending team in most need of a MI – Giants, A’s, Cards, Jays, or Pirates? |
1:16 |
: Giants and Jays.
|
1:16 |
What to make of Jose Quintana? |
1:16 |
: Bottom of the rotation fantasy starter. Good curve, good fastballs, iffy change.
|
1:17 |
I don’t think pomeranz is getting enough credit. In a fit of rage, he still refrained from using his pitching hand to punch that chair. Have you ever tried smashing furniture with your off-hand? |
1:17 |
Which manager gets canned first? Lot of wonderful choices based on merit right now no? |
1:17 |
: Collins.
|
1:17 |
Arrieta over Alex Wood? |
1:17 |
: Wood.
|
1:17 |
I wonder what Jared is doing now…. I miss his class updates! |
1:17 |
: Hope he graduated.
|
1:17 |
Big Bad Baptist is my new favorite brew btw. Cueto for X argos gomez in keeper league. 14 team 7×7. Thanks for the awesomeness |
1:18 |
: I’d take Carlos Gomez for Cueto yes. AS great as Cueto has been, he has an extensive injury history and is not going to leave that behind for good.
|
1:18 |
Do you think Cishek will get traded? If so, who might be next in line? |
1:18 |
: Marlins too close to wild card, probably not. I do like what Bryan Morris is doing though.
|
1:18 |
WAZZUP Eno? Which side would you rather have ROS: Chris Davis and PUIG, or Bautista and Votto/DW? |
1:19 |
: Davis and Puig, because Puig is best in deal.
|
1:19 |
![]() He's got it….right? |
1:19 |
Can Belisario hold on to the close gig for ROS? If not, who’s the handcuff? |
1:19 |
: Yeah he’s going to do it ugly, at least until Lindstrom comes back.
|
1:19 |
Baez busting…hmmm. Thoughts on Joey Gallo then? |
1:20 |
: At least Gallo pairs a plus walk rate with his K problems.
|
1:20 |
Wouldnt trading Kemp and eating 40 mill and calling Joc be roughly the equivalent of paying Joc 40 mill is that good? |
1:20 |
: Well if you paid 40 mill of Kemp’s contract, you might get a prospect back.
|
1:20 |
I heard that Dodgers saved #14 for David Price in case they traded for him this year. |
1:20 |
: LOL
|
1:21 |
Skagg’s FIP and xFIP disagree! |
1:21 |
: Even a good Skaggs is Lilly-esque: high fastball, curve, more homers than average bear. Question is, what is Skaggs’ true-talent BB%?
|
1:21 |
Last Henry Rodriguez thing: how does a guy with 38 walks and 14 wild pitches in 25 innings hit zero batters? |
1:21 |
: Aims for the middle of the zone?
|
1:22 |
In the words of Kenny Powers, Bartolo Colon is a “ballplayer” not an “exerciser.” |
1:22 |
What’s more important in determining the true park factor on a given day: wind, temperature, or humidity? |
1:22 |
: Temperature. Google Zimmerman on it.
|
1:22 |
Does BABIP have any value in evaluating a minor league hitter? |
1:22 |
: Very little. I only note when a hitter (like Machado) has consistently sub-.300 minor league BABIPs. Because the average BABiP in those bad-defense leagues is over .320 if I remember right.
|
1:23 |
Wong, Hill, or Lowrie ROS? |
1:23 |
: Hill.
|
1:23 |
whats going on with trumbo… he gonna be worth anything this year? |
1:23 |
: Two three weeks away.
|
1:23 |
Shae Simmons looks a like he could be an acey RP, especially in ottoneu. |
1:23 |
: He’s good and is being used as setup man, I believe.
|
1:23 |
Willingham or Kemp ROS? |
1:23 |
: At this level, I’ll take Kemp.
|
1:23 |
How many HR will Desmond hit this year? |
1:23 |
: 19
|
1:24 |
: Ok they won’t kill that Columbian striker.
|
1:24 |
Thank you for the sheer volume of questions that you get to. This chat is the gold-standard for fantasy baseball chats online. |
1:24 |
: My mom made me go to five different typing classes as a kid.
|
1:24 |
Where does Eovaldi fit into your ROS rankings of Gausman Arrieta Heaney Stroman? |
1:24 |
: Tops.
|
1:25 |
I won’t trust anything from Europe until Cistulli vacates the continent, so with apologies to Matt I shall not be listening. Also they block almost everything at work so I couldn’t listen anyway. |
1:25 |
: Well it’s American music.
|
1:25 |
Gattis for Norris, Cody Allen and Bradley in a keep-forever, one-catcher, OBP league a fair swap. I need saves; the other guy needs a catcher (he has Wieters). |
1:25 |
: I’d like a better pitcher than Bradley. Maybe even a guy with less pedigree but is pitching in majors and giving me real-life stats to look at.
|
1:25 |
: But I like the idea.
|
1:26 |
Billy Hamilton showing any signs he can’t keep up a .275/.310 80 run, 80 SB pace? |
1:26 |
: Not really, which is great for those that bought in!
|
1:27 |
You mentioned Baez flaming out a bit ago. How concerned are you about his big league prospects? Would you trade Rios/Choo for him in a dynasty league (assuming you’re out of contention this season) |
1:27 |
: No. I’m not buying.
|
1:27 |
: Didn’t see a ton of him this spring, but combined with what I see on his stat page, I’m cold.
|
1:28 |
Optimistic at all about AJ Burnett? Last few turns have been much better but overall it looks like his K’s are gone for good which makes him borderline streamerbait |
1:28 |
: Not that optimistic because the swSTR is gone, and he’s pitching through injury.
|
1:28 |
What makes Baez a bust? Maybe just taking a little longer. |
1:29 |
: His entire minor league history of Ks and BBs puts him in a strong bust category. If it works out, it’ll be great. But he’s over 50% bust territory like that. Google Chris St. John and what do minor league strikeout and walk rates tell us.
|
1:29 |
If Cishek enters free agency next year, is he a closer for another team, or just a bullpen arm? |
1:29 |
: The velocity loss will concern the contenders. Teams that gather arms and hope for closers, like Milwaukee, might jump if the price drops.
|
1:29 |
#14=Price. Buster Olney said on podcast, not a joke. If Pederson or any other advanced AAA prospect gets traded, do they need to stay down in AAA with new team for ROS? |
1:30 |
: Wow. Well, the Dodgers were the number contender in my piece on the subject. Lee and Joc would get it done, and no, they could come up right away.
|
1:30 |
Do you agree with this trade? My Sale for his A Jones? |
1:30 |
: Yeah that’s about right.
|
1:30 |
: Adam Jones is a lesser hitter than Sale is a pitcher, but scroll back.
|
1:30 |
Jeff Locke has looked decent and has a couple nice matchups next week. Interested? |
1:30 |
: Nope.
|
1:31 |
Only 6 more for Desmond the last 3 1/2 months? |
1:31 |
: Okay. 22! Real answer: no idea, but I don’t think he’s a 30 homer guy.
|
1:31 |
Apologie, I couldn’t know that, again everything is blocked. DAMN YOU SENSIBLE WORK ETHICS!!!!! |
1:31 |
I am swinging a big stick! |
1:31 |
Why are the Royals batting their best leadoff man 9th? |
1:31 |
: And Gordon too low too.
|
1:32 |
Worked for the Tornado guy so… my unsinkable ship hit an iceberg and sank last week. Would you rather have Aramis Ramirez or Ryan Zimmerman ROS? Those are my 2 3B trade targets. |
1:32 |
: Zimm. Better, younger, both have health risks.
|
1:32 |
Can Betances be stretched into a starter? Next year? |
1:32 |
: Ship has sailed.
|
1:32 |
Regarding Baez and K/BB rates- speaks well of Mookie’s chances then right? |
1:32 |
: Yes, but his ceiling could be lower.
|
1:33 |
Bryan Morris is another guy who’s value DC slammed when the Fish had the temerity to deal a comp value pick for him… but I get that the tendency is to overvalue prospects by the people who populate this site… |
1:33 |
: To be fair, and I really like some of what Morris is doing, there’s no great reason to trade for a reliever. Just give up on a starter in the minors and you’ll get a decent reliever for free-ish.
|
1:33 |
: This soccer game just got real.
|
1:33 |
More likely to salvage their draft cost … Pedroia or Wright? |
1:34 |
: Wright. Pedroia playing through injury again IMO.
|
1:34 |
Trade vetoes in fantasy baseball are an abomination, right? |
1:34 |
: Yes. Terrible. Trust your owners. Don’t meddle.
|
1:34 |
Do you agree with my Braun for his King Felix? |
1:35 |
: Shouldn’t Felix side add a minor hitter?
|
1:35 |
Ozuna = Adam Jones lite? |
1:35 |
: Not bad.
|
1:35 |
Heard Perkins had an injury. Who is next in line? |
1:35 |
: Burton? Love the splangeup. Hadn’t heard that Perk was hurt though.
|
1:35 |
Do you sometimes intentionally give less-than-helpful yet amusing answers for your own enjoyment? |
1:36 |
: Yeesh you don’t have to blow up my spot like that.
|
1:36 |
Can Kansas City really take this division? Up again on Detroit, 1-0 vs Anibal Sanchez. |
1:37 |
: I thought the division was wide open. Thought maybe the Indians would surprise, but could be Royals. Never thought that Nathan solved the bullpen, figured the old rotation would regress or get hurt… I looked really wrong for a bit, but then the Tigers did some of those things.
|
1:37 |
Do your colleagues come to the chat to mess with you? |
1:37 |
: Carson used to, before he jetsetted.
|
1:37 |
Perkins has a sore back, he’s not really injured, probably back today or tomorrow. |
1:37 |
: PHew.
|
1:37 |
Ugh, just got offered Paco, James Jones, Gary Sanchez and Crick for Skaggs and Wieters. No thank you. |
1:38 |
: No Such Thing As A Catching Prospect. Crick a high-bust rate prospect. Paco a reliever. So it’s a Juan Pierre type for Skaggs. You know, I’d do that in AL LaBR right now (Jones for my Skaggs) but nobody else will. And in keeper, it’s not enough.
|
1:38 |
trade vetoes are an abomination but three weeks ago a manager that doesn’t really care traded his harper to a manager who does care for verlander. trust is overrated. |
1:39 |
: manager who doesn’t care isn’t invited back.
|
1:39 |
So we’ve all been burned by Cistuili. Ok then, I feel better about myself. |
1:39 |
: Except Blackmon. He was very appreciative and told me to tell Carson thanks.
|
1:39 |
Khris Davis. Please Khris Davis. Mashing. Much slugging. Wow walking. |
1:39 |
: I know! And it looked really bad for a while.
|
1:39 |
What dialect does Minnix speak? It’s strange to my Bay Area ears and I know he can’t be native of San Diego. |
1:40 |
: Haha it IS strange. He’s from Virginia, I think, but it doesn’t sound Southern either.
|
1:40 |
I resigned as commish over a trade veto. Im dramatic but principled. |
1:40 |
Polanco has hit in 9 straight now. Ha. |
1:40 |
Why do Stikeouts suddenly appear? Every time Kershaw is near? |
1:40 |
: Endluded.
|
1:40 |
: Thanks guys, might be trying to go to the park today, so gotta run.
|
1:40 |
: Love and kisses.
|
1:40 |
bye thanks eno |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
well the bottom fell out on Nick Swisher, hasn’t it…
leave it to me…