Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 6/5/14
10:41 |
: I’ll be here at noon eastern!
|
10:49 |
:
|
10:49 |
: in the meantime
|
11:59 |
It isn’t exactly a positive statement the O’s are giving out,that while contending, they are digging up the corpse of Johan Santana to start rather than calling up Kevin Gausman. What is Dan Duquette doing? |
12:00 |
: Must be worried about Gausman’s fastball being flat and the breaker not being good enough. I still love Gausman, but now I think he could end up with the Cubs (where I would love him more).
|
12:00 |
Surly did an event in Philly recently, and if they ever do the same where you are you really need to go to it. Darkness/Furious/Blakkr are crazy good. |
12:00 |
: I’ve had two of the three and thought they were okay! But I know we have slightly different tastes when it comes to maltiness in our IPAs.
|
12:00 |
With Manny coaching in AAA, will we see a bunch of hilarious fielding gaffes by the Cubs in 2015? |
12:00 |
: Hilarious fill in the blanks.
|
12:01 |
Hi Eno. I have many questions. They shall follow. |
12:01 |
![]() It's ENO Chat Time! |
12:01 |
Lude me, bro. |
12:01 |
: done
|
12:01 |
Would prime Randy Johnson have a shot at a 400 strikeout season in the current environment? |
12:02 |
: Hah. Would be fun to see him face the Astros.
|
12:02 |
Whatever happened to that guy who kept asking why Giancarlo Stanton is considered elite when Jay Bruce is not? His persistence was instructive, even if his question was not. |
12:02 |
: Jay Bruce Jay Bruced.
|
12:02 |
Eno!!!!! What do you think of Brad Boxberger? I’m starting to think he has the stuff to close in Tampa, sooner than later!!! |
12:03 |
: I think Tampa won’t make him expensive so soon. Maybe they give him some high leverage shots, but not many saves.
|
12:03 |
JD Sussman just wrote an article in which he implied that Hunter Harvey would be enough to land the Shark in a trade between the Orioles and Cubs. You think that would get it done? |
12:03 |
: Deals seem to always have multiple players, but I think he coudl be the center piece. or Gaus.
|
12:03 |
Did the past few days earn Belisario some much needed breathing room? |
12:03 |
: Also, his salary situation.
|
12:04 |
Hey Eno….projection on Brock Holt for rest of year? |
12:04 |
: Not a ton of playing time.
|
12:04 |
![]() With what you may be asking? Everything. |
12:04 |
So I watched Garrett Richard’s start yesterday and he obviously had a foreign substance on his hat. How come Bo Porter did not call this out when his lineup was being dominated? |
12:05 |
: Cause everyone does it? This is a strange part of baseball to me. Change the rule or enforce it.
|
12:05 |
So what’s the deal with Josh Harrison suddenly deciding to be amazing? And what do the Pirates do with him if he’s still hot when Dominican Baseball Jesus finally comes up? |
12:05 |
: Feels like a hot streak from a guy without the right skill set for any one position.
|
12:05 |
Your thoughts on the statement Pujols only slightly better than “Happy” Morse – According to Heatmaps, Morse average flyball=320 ft (4th highest in MLB and 35’ more than last year) with a high angle whereas Pujols=278 (trending down even during this year) with medium angle. Morse has a better ISO, LD and IFFB rate though Pujols does hit a few more flyballs. |
12:06 |
: I’d like to say Morse more likely to be injured, but Pujols’ record in that department not great either. I think the missing difference is K%. Morse’s says he’ll hit < .275, Pujols' says above.
|
12:06 |
Would my Posey for his Melky be a fair deal? Other guy is desperate for a C. I’ve already stashed Mesoraco in anticipation (and am aware of his overperformance). Thanks Eno! |
12:06 |
: I’d want more than Melky.
|
12:06 |
Are Neise and Colon worth holding onto in a 10 team mixed league, or should I just be streaming them? |
12:06 |
: STREAM!
|
12:07 |
What beer are you drinking on a warm (not hot!) summer day if you’re sitting outside? |
12:07 |
: A single pale ale, maybe AleSmith, or Pinkus Organic Pils.
|
12:07 |
So Alcides Escobar is useful as a steals-only guy so long as he continues to get on base, yes? What do you think the chances are of him continuing to get on base at a decent clip? |
12:08 |
: He’s a BABIP wonder, but the BABIP gods are smiling on him now, and they seem to stick with him for a full season at a time.
|
12:08 |
So my wife and I found out we are having a boy and were throwing around name ideas. I said, “How about Eno?”, she said, “How about NO!” |
12:08 |
: So you’re saying there’s a chance. One vowel away.
|
12:08 |
I’ve noticed some of the FG chat writers mentioning recently how many questions are in the queue. Have things really ramped up this season? Good for you all! |
12:08 |
: This will also serve as an apology if I don’t get to yours.
|
12:08 |
Hi Eno: My keeper league has quirky waiver rules for minors callups. I was at #1 priority and had shot at getting Singleton, I passed hoping to get polanco, but polanco must be called up by friday when my priority ends. Rosenthal reported he gets called up friday and I’m excited my gamble paid off, but pirates brass shot down the report, and I’m crestfallen. What do you think of my gamble? Thanks. |
12:09 |
: You’re still in it.
|
12:09 |
Would you be starting Cashner this Saturday in his first start off the DL? |
12:09 |
: Yes.
|
12:09 |
Do you think Putnam might pick up some saves for the White Sox this season? Should I grab him off the wire? |
12:09 |
: I think they keep him cheap, plus he doesn’t have traditional closer velocity.
|
12:09 |
Eno, it’s my birthday, by the end of the year I’ll be living in a beautiful world full of Pedey’s, Xander’s and Mookie’s playing joyfully together for the next 6+ years, and 21st Amendment is hosting a happy hour in the lobby of my Philadelphia office building. |
12:09 |
: ROSES
|
12:10 |
Crazy that Usher did a remake of this song. |
12:10 |
idk who 2 drop eno. RDLR or degrom (dynasty league). tough and also very boring decisions! |
12:11 |
: RDLR has an innings problem (not many innings the last two seasons, plus not many innings per start) and so he might end up in pen. DeGrom has a breaker problem (his change is great, his FB is fine, his SL is not), but maybe that’s more solvable?
|
12:11 |
You picking up Eddie Butler for his promotion this Friday? |
12:11 |
: Yes. Maybe not start, but yes. Apparently he was working on some stuff (FB command) in Triple-A, which explains some of his K% drop.
|
12:11 |
Hey eno! Know it’s a cliche but people always underestimate closers on bad teams. I mean do people care that much about 25 vs 20 save oops rest of season if the other stats are good? Which brings me to Chad Qualls. Last year he was epic; this year he looks even better, properly lights out- what am I missing? Tell us why he’s not the real deal! |
12:12 |
: All I’ve seen associated with Save Opps is team run scoring and team bullpen strength. The Astros have one…
|
12:12 |
Jeff Samardjahwhatchamacallhim to the Rockies, Blue Jays or are there any sleeper destinations? Fear of the Rockies makes me want to trade him quickly. |
12:12 |
: I’m thinking Blue Jays or Orioles.
|
12:12 |
Can you explain how FGs’ park factors are calculated? They are far different than other ones I find online. |
12:12 |
: Three-year regressed plus we cut them in half to reflect that a player only spends half his time there.
|
12:12 |
IN THE MEANTIME |
12:13 |
Enos when you’re sleeping Enos when you’re awake Enos if you’ve been bad or good |
12:13 |
: BUBBLY BUBBLY BUBBLY ENO
|
12:13 |
Gausman is probably gonna pitch Saturday vs. OAK |
12:13 |
: Let’s all watch.
|
12:13 |
I’m rarely in go-for-it mode in Ottoneu, but I’m leading my points league. Semien’s demotion leaves me with just one shortstop-eligible major-leaguer. And it’s Hanley. Should I start making trade offers to scare up a backup with some teeth, or pick up an emergency type free agent (in the Eduardo Escobar/Suarez/Jace Peterson tier)? Or just let it slide unless Hanley gets hit by a bus, because a fill-in if Hanley misses even a few weeks probably wouldn’t net me more than a 75-100-point swing anyway? |
12:14 |
: I might pick up a dollar guy. Just to have around for the nicks and cuts and a few extra points.
|
12:14 |
Would Gausman start immediately for the Cubs if he were traded in a package for Shark? |
12:14 |
: Yes
|
12:14 |
I know you’re a fan of Chase Whitley… what could you see as a reasonable comp going forward? |
12:14 |
: Interesting. I see a little Corey Kluber in him in that his fastball isn’t great, but he has multiple offspeed pitches and good command.
|
12:14 |
This question is ridiculous, because I’m able to pick up all of these guys right now. Who would you want for the ROS as SS in a standard 5×5 roto league: Escobar, Aybar, Reyes, or Rollins? |
12:15 |
: I just pubbed my ranks on this site and you can sort them by my name! I’d hate to get it wrong, but if I remember right… Reyes is ahead by a ton. Rollins ahead of others.
|
12:15 |
So is Stroman’s epic breaking ball a curve ball or a slider? It looks like a slider but he said it’s a curve ball. |
12:15 |
: It’s all one continuum. Kimbrel’s curve looks like a slider. Power curve!
|
12:16 |
Would you advise dumping Nathan for Bruce Rondon in a shallow league? |
12:16 |
: No, Nthan’s got more leash.
|
12:16 |
Standard 5×5 NL-only keeper league – my Ben Revere for Hector Rondon and Jaime Garcia…I have to make that deal, right? (Especially when I currently have Edwin Jackson and Tim Stauffer on my pitching staff due to injuries.) |
12:16 |
: Yeah I think that’s decent… if you have enough steals.
|
12:16 |
Going to quit my job and try to eat all of the 67,391 burritos in America who’s coming with me!!! (Also, who can pay for this???) |
12:16 |
Hey, Surly looks out for one guy…Surly. |
12:16 |
i think brad had a cool last name |
12:16 |
: This was pretty random. Feeling good today guys?
|
12:17 |
:
|
12:17 |
After watching Trevor Bauer, he reminds me a lot of Roy Oswalt in terms of the way he moves. Not sure this is quantifiable, but just an impression. |
12:17 |
: I know Kyle Boddy and Driveline worked a lot on his lower half. Seems a lot of the Tim Lincecum has been exorcised.
|
12:18 |
Re Pine Tar: Think there’s a big difference between a stain on the bill of your cap and a big smear of it on your neck. Don’t think you’d be able to really change the path of the ball with the amount of pine tar that’s on your hat, so pretty obvious that it’s just for grip; neck is a different story. |
12:18 |
: Really? Not if you’re white. It’s way more obvious.
|
12:18 |
What in the world am I suppose to do with Starling Marte? |
12:18 |
: He’ll be fine.
|
12:18 |
every night of philly beer week, they bring this giant beer sledgehammer to a different bar and use it to tap the first keg of the night. long story short there is now a picture wherein it looks like someone is about to smash my head in with a massive beer hammer |
12:18 |
Glad you talked me off the bridge with Brad Miller a few chats ago. Looks like his BB and K’s are starting to get closer together. Maybe 8-12 homers and 10 steals for the rest of the season? |
12:19 |
: yeah I think he’s weathered the storm actually. Not sure he’s a great mixed league pickup, but deeper leaguers should own him. Cautiously calling for .250/8/10.
|
12:19 |
Mexican Cake time this weekend wooooooooooooooo |
12:19 |
That was good chili I just had for lunch. |
12:19 |
…and this is the name of my new large bird farm |
12:19 |
: Food themed interlude.
|
12:19 |
I am going to be in San Francisco next week for work. What downtown beer bars should I hit up? |
12:20 |
: MUST: City Beer Store, Toronado, Cellarmaker. Also: Monk’s Kettle, Public House.
|
12:20 |
Yankees most likely landing spot for Morales? |
12:20 |
: I think so. Ranked them Yankees/Rangers/Indians. Seems like the offseason proved he’s a DH.
|
12:20 |
Over half of Morneau’s flyballs are infield flies. Eugh. Guess we should take his 292 ft HR,FB distance (and its 20 ft improvement) with a grain of salt then… Wish I’d traded him before his cold streak… |
12:20 |
: OOf there goes his average I guess.
|
12:20 |
Are you sticking with Liriano? Dump him for McHugh? |
12:21 |
: you know, I’ll take McHugh. Looks like a LIriano Bad Command year.
|
12:21 |
can you explain what you mean about gausman’s fastball? what does flat mean? |
12:21 |
: Just seems hittable, without much movement. Fast but straight. But that’s pretty hard to scout, so maybe it’s just that he’s got no breaker and that’s what he needs.
|
12:21 |
RE: Your Jess CHavez love. Thoughts on last night’s start? |
12:22 |
: He’s homer-risky. Don’t know why. Turfed the fastballs to use the cutter as a fastball, and has great command of it. Hangs the curves sometimes, that’s probably the homers. Great fit in Oakland. I actually sat him for that start in a few leagues. I’d be a little careful in the Texas type parks.
|
12:22 |
I used to work in a grocery store, and once every day or three the “Don’t let me dooown…BRUCE!” song would come on, and it would make me really happy, because I would pretend they were saying “Don’t let me dooown…PROUST!” and I just generally love ELO. |
12:23 |
:
|
12:23 |
What ever happened to Japhet Amador? I heard he was donated back to Mexican League but could return? Weird. |
12:23 |
: Too many first basemen in Houston now.
|
12:23 |
Will we see Alex Meyer soon, and is it worth it start an faab for Hanh in Ottoneu? |
12:24 |
: Yes do it now before the rumors start. He’ll be up for some time, even if he can’t pitch much more than 160 this year.
|
12:24 |
Re: pine tar…it’s not to change the flight of the ball, it’s to improve grip & increase spin (“snap”) on breaking balls…Bill of the cap is plenty effective in doing that. Also see: belt buckle, palm of pitcher’s glove, under catcher’s shin guards, etc…you must be a moron to use the back of your neck in Yankees Stadium |
12:24 |
: Yeah maybe he thought his skin color would hide it.
|
12:24 |
Am I a buy low target? |
12:24 |
: No. Plate discipline and D has you relegated to a vLHP LF.
|
12:25 |
![]() |
12:25 |
Skaggs or Heaney ROS once hes up? |
12:25 |
: Maybe Heaney. Great home park. Skaggs has been good enough to count as a win for me in my book (braggart) but has inconsistent command and isn’t turning his repertoire into Ks as much as I’d like.
|
12:25 |
I need a CI, buy low on Hosmer or Craig? |
12:26 |
: I actually think Craig might have more true talent power, but the real answer is that you get the cheaper one because both are batting average first CIs.
|
12:26 |
thanks for the SF beer recs. in response I’ll say this: if you love sucks, you should like surly furious. same grapefruitty deliciousness. |
12:27 |
: I don’t know what it is. Have had overrated and furious and… one more. Actually the one I can’t remember was my favorite. Liked em all, didn’t love em.
|
12:27 |
Go to House of Nanking in San Francisco. Excellent Chinese food. |
12:27 |
What about Liriano for Garcia or Quintana? |
12:27 |
: Quintana.
|
12:28 |
: That was for Quintana or Liriano. Can’t find the question now.
|
12:28 |
Am I satisfied with Britton as my closer or do I give Hunter another shot? |
12:28 |
: Hold. Orioles have shown they don’t mind a ground baller in the role.
|
12:28 |
What are your thoughts on Dickerson? Might be a decent play while CarGo is out? |
12:28 |
: Sure. sit against lefties if you can.
|
12:29 |
Is this Cameron Maybin’s breakout year? |
12:29 |
: .355 BABIP says at least some if it s luck. Some might be finally healhty.
|
12:29 |
True or False: Carlos Correa debuts in June 2015? |
12:29 |
: True.
|
12:29 |
Can you explain Yelich’s splits? How should us daily leaguers use him? |
12:29 |
: They’re reverse, right? don’t worry about reverse splits. They take 1000 PAs to stabilize.
|
12:29 |
Any recommended San Diego beer knocks that I can bring my 13 year old to? |
12:30 |
: Easiest is probably Stone World Bistro in Liberty Station. Koi pond, good food, outside, good beer.
|
12:30 |
You starting Verlander today vs Jays? |
12:30 |
: yes. Can’t wait to see the velocity numbers today.
|
12:30 |
I just assumed Amador joined Tacoby Bellsbury to try to eat at all the burrito places. |
12:30 |
: Amador ate Tacoby Ellsbury.
|
12:31 |
Do you think Hutchison will be on an innings limit this season? I’ve heard both yes and no. |
12:32 |
: Probably a Salazar type situation where the team is in it but wants to protect the arm some. I bet they find a way to sit him for a bit.
|
12:32 |
wait. MATT KEMP IS IN THIS CHAT?! omg this is so cool |
12:32 |
: Cool huh
|
12:32 |
Sonny and Howard for Felix. Fair? |
12:32 |
: Sure
|
12:32 |
Strasburg quietly leads baseball in FIP, XFIP, Strikeouts, K/9, and is second in WAR. And yet people still act like he’s a disappointment. Explain. |
12:32 |
: I love him. Called him a buy low for a while based on this.
|
12:32 |
Do you think I’ll return to vintage form now that I’m healthy again? |
12:33 |
: Might be gone. Still strong starter 80% of the time, but homer issues mean I’ll be a little careful with him.
|
12:33 |
Prospect Questions: Does Mookie promotion to AAA portend an upcoming shot at the bigs? What do you make of Franco’s ability to crush big leagues? |
12:33 |
: Franco’s stock is a bit down. Mookie will be in bigs shortly, I believe. As the Boston CF.
|
12:33 |
I have a lot of trouble putting new players who come up into context with fantasy prowess among their peers. What current major leaguer would you say taveras profiles most closely to in fantasy value. |
12:35 |
: Would have to be a high-contact low-patience guy with some speed, good power. Doing a quick k/bb/iso/sb scan, I see Rendon and Pence as possible stat comps.
|
12:35 |
Eno, what do you make of Belt? Do you think he’ll keep the power he was showing before the thumb broke? |
12:36 |
: It was a fracture so I think he’ll be okay healthwise. I’m actually kinda bullish on Belt. It’s all about his adjustments now. I think he can .275/25 full season pace.
|
12:36 |
ROS rank: Keuchel, Samardzija, McHugh, Ventura, Price. |
12:37 |
: Price Kuechel Shark Ventura McHugh (like them all)
|
12:37 |
Am I crazy to think Rizzo > Abreu in a keeper league? |
12:37 |
: It’s a little bit of future Pujols vs future Chris Davis, possibly.
|
12:37 |
Do I use yelich against lefties righties or both in daily league? |
12:37 |
: I’d go with the traditional vRHP but depending on the guy on your bench, he can start every day.
|
12:38 |
Follow Up:Do you still prefer Chavez to one of the extreme ground ball pitchers, like McHugh for instance? Assuming Latos is coming off the DL, would you drop Chavez or McHugh to clear up the roster spot ? |
12:38 |
: McHugh is an extreme fly ball pitcher. I take Chavez over him.
|
12:38 |
abrasive is the other surly you had, maybe? that’s the double IPA |
12:39 |
: Yeah I liked Abrasive best. Really surprised by the ABV.
|
12:39 |
Is it time to trade cano if you can get another elite bat in return? Power looks like it isn’t coming back. |
12:39 |
: I think he can 18-20 homer still. Depends on return, but he’s tradeable to em.
|
12:39 |
Can Hunter Dozier be a quality replacement for Mistakeus as soon as next season? Guy is coming into his own in a pitchers league. Doubles machine…7 in his last 10 games, 30 in 69 GP last year. Expecting him to get bumped to AA after the draft…Any chance we see him in KC in Sept? |
12:40 |
: Really nice work for him. totally possible. Moose looks like a bust, and his MiLB walk rate might have been a clue.
|
12:40 |
With respect to the comment on ELO’s ‘Don’t Bring Me Down’, the actual lyrics are ‘Don’t bring me down, Grooooos’. Not sure what ‘Groooos’ is, but I had the LP (Discovery), complete with three panel cardboard cover and lyrics printed on the sleeves! I miss 6th grade 🙁 |
12:40 |
Eno, what is your opinion of Drew Pomeranz? Is he worth a look in deeper leagues? |
12:40 |
: he should be owned if only for home starts. A little worried that he’s not even faking a third pitch.
|
12:40 |
Speaking of yelich, him or Khris Davis in 7×7 obp slg |
12:40 |
: yelich
|
12:40 |
At the end of the day, which of the highly touted prospects will end up having the best season? Taveras, Polanco, or Springer? |
12:41 |
: Springer has the head start, him.
|
12:41 |
Trying to get Hamilton to replace Cargo, is giving up Kazmir about right? 10 team league, have lots of pitching. |
12:41 |
: I’d do that. Kaz’ velocity is up and down, injury history major.
|
12:41 |
Best of the big name IPAs: 60 Minute, Two Hearted, or Sculpin? |
12:41 |
: Two-hearted would have been my answer two years ago, but it’s a bit mellow for me now. Sculpin on tap beats them all.
|
12:42 |
Was just offered Polanco and Mauer for Abreu in a keeper league. He thinks it’s fair but I have my doubts. Thoughts? |
12:42 |
: Keep the bird in hand.
|
12:42 |
Are you starting Yordano and his iffy elbow against the Cards today? |
12:42 |
: yes.
|
12:42 |
Obama already weighed in on this, but I’d like your thoughts: Maybin or Denorfia for my 5th OF in a 4 OF OBP league? |
12:42 |
: Maybin.
|
12:42 |
A. Soriano looks lost right now…hold for the usual hot streak or flip him for someone like Oswaldo Arcia. |
12:43 |
: Flip for anything. If the Yanks get Morales, bad for Soriano.
|
12:43 |
Trade Huston Street before the Padres do? Or ride the perfection until it ends? |
12:43 |
: I’d trade him, yes. Averages 45 IP or so a season.
|
12:43 |
Is Cargo someone you would be looking to buy for 2015? Do you think he can bounce back next year and be a top 15 player again? |
12:43 |
: Looks like injuries will always be part of the package.
|
12:44 |
I’ve been biding my time waiting for Bryce Harper to come back but quickly snatched up Willingham when he showed he’s still got some pop. Think he can have a ROS resembling his 2012? |
12:44 |
: .240/25 full season pace in my book.
|
12:44 |
When players are ejected, do they actually go take a shower? |
12:44 |
: Sure, they can turn on all the shower heads and sing as loud as they want.
|
12:44 |
Domonic Brown droppable in an 11 team mixed? |
12:45 |
: New GB rate is too high for great power, yes.
|
12:45 |
salazar is compeltely droppable right? |
12:45 |
: I’d hold in deeper leagues and keeper leagues where I have a DL spot.
|
12:45 |
Do you think Beckett and S. Castro are too much to give up for Altuve? Need Steals. |
12:45 |
: Nah seems fine. Zimmerman’s Steamer-ROS based approach has Altuve #1 at 2B going forward.
|
12:46 |
Worried at all about Kipnis or Zobrist? they have not been great since coming back from injury |
12:46 |
: More worried about Zobrist because of his age. Wait, they’re not the same age are they? Well anyway I see the CS next to Zobrist and the long decline in power and don’t really want him.
|
12:46 |
FYI for let me down bruuuce: Rondon is out for the year. |
12:47 |
: yeah it’s really Joba that’s the handcuff, but I’m not buying there either.
|
12:47 |
Will Eovaldi stay rosterable in a 10 team H2H league? What about Drew Hutchison? |
12:47 |
: yes and yes but if that’s the state of your wire, matchups make most sense.
|
12:47 |
What do you do in a league where only 1 or 2 managers likes to trade while the rest rather go down with the ship with their teams? |
12:47 |
: Every league? Pester the guys going down before settling for what I can get from the traders.
|
12:47 |
If the Mookster is in center, then where art thou Jackie Bradley Jr? |
12:48 |
: Minors working on contact rate?
|
12:48 |
Is Shelby Miller salvageable this year? The HR rate and BB rate are too much to handle right now |
12:48 |
: BB rate more worrisome because he’s so FB-heavy and that number more stable right now.
|
12:48 |
: But I do think Miller is salvageable.
|
12:48 |
What’s your take on the speculation that when the Rockies call up gray, they could use him in the closer role? Seems silly. |
12:48 |
: Yeah I don’t believe.
|
12:48 |
Trivia: Jeff Lynne, lead singer of ELO, is ‘that other guy’ in the Travelling Wiburys, as in: “You remember the Travelling Wiburys, Tom Petty, Roy Orbison, George Harrison, Bob Dylan, and that other guy.” |
12:49 |
How’s the fantasy beer league doing? Off the top of your head, unless you no for certain, which have been the best performing breweries in each tier? PS. I regret taking Rare Barrel over Cellarmaker. |
12:49 |
: Firestone Walker just killed May with Stickee Monkee and Bretta Rose. I think they might be the best brewery in fantasy, or Cigar City.
|
12:49 |
I used to watch the baseball writer just crush one question after another in the chat… kung, kung, kung |
12:49 |
![]() TRIPPY LUDE |
12:49 |
I’m having a hard time getting “Afraid” by Posse out of my head. |
12:50 |
When I listen to Sufjan Stevens, I can’t help but think of Carson. I don’t know why. I just do. And I kinda like it |
12:50 |
Has Todd Frazier genuinely improved w/the bat? Mirage? |
12:50 |
: Look at his 2012. It’s an EXACT match by slash rates. Only thing missing for Frazier is a full healthy year.
|
12:50 |
How long do splits take to stabilize for pitchers? |
12:51 |
: K is like 150 BF, BB maybe twice as long, power stats against (HR/9) more than a year if I remember right.
|
12:51 |
[Very scared about my favorite Cuban’s batted-ball profile :(] |
12:52 |
: You were saying he’s hitting 1.5 gb per fb, which is strange for a power hitter. 40% HR/FB. Strange that some of those have stabilized, obviously HR/FB hasn’t, and so you’re thinking power outage coming. I don’t know, looks pretty powerful to me when I watch him. I wouldn’t worry too much.
|
12:52 |
Singleton or Morse? |
12:52 |
: Morse
|
12:52 |
the Nats lineup today is…interesting. Span CF, Rendon 2B, Werth RF, LaRoche 1B, Zimmerman LF, Frandsen 3B, Espinosa SS, Lobaton C, Fister P |
12:52 |
: Wut. So the arm problems with Zimmerman are worse than we feared. Or he’d be playing third today.
|
12:52 |
Over/Under 20 HR for LaRoche this season? |
12:52 |
: Over
|
12:53 |
rank ROC: Tillman, masterson, de grom, RDLR, Mchugh |
12:53 |
: McHugh!
|
12:53 |
Im taking Kolek or rondon #1 in this years draft, who do you got? |
12:53 |
: Aikin?
|
12:53 |
![]() |
12:53 |
The Dodgers OF situation seems odd with the recent Kemp/Ethier shuffling but I understand in terms of defensive metrics. Could this also be posturing for a trade? Any thoughts on how this plays out ROS for Joc Pederson? |
12:54 |
: I can’t imagine they call up Joc and sit a healthy Crawford, but Joc can probably play CF better than Ethier so it’s not crazy.
|
12:55 |
Stephen Vogt is starting in RF today #moneyball |
12:55 |
Have I been completely duped by Littlefinger (again) or am I legit starting to figure out how to play the game? |
12:55 |
: I think she’s got some of her mom in her. Gotta watch out for yourself.
|
12:55 |
OFer David Murphy this year is currently ranked as a top 30 OF in standard leagues. This can’t continue right? |
12:56 |
: Well he can’t really play that way because he doesn’t play every day. But there’s nothing crazy about what he’s doing.
|
12:56 |
Closers to be traded before the deadline? |
12:57 |
: Only really worried about Cishek, maybe Street.
|
12:57 |
I will be playing 3B for the North Siders come August… |
12:57 |
: Maybe. But it’s his glove that’s keeping him down, so the earlier he comes up, the more likely he’s playing in the OF.
|
12:57 |
Why do you like Ventura against the Cardinals tonight? Everything about this start screams “wait-and-see” for me |
12:58 |
: Didn’t go on the DL, didn’t have terrible starts before grabbing the elbow.
|
12:58 |
Beltran is back today. I had him previously but ran out of DL spots and dropped him. Does he stay healthy? Drop him for Yelich, Willingham, or Khris Davis? |
12:58 |
: I’d rather have him than Khris Davis or Wilingham, should have a better batting average, similar power.
|
12:58 |
Would you trade Pedroia for Dozier if the other manager thinks he’s selling high and buying low? |
12:59 |
: I’d do that but ask for a buy low arm as sweetener.
|
12:59 |
Surprised Segura was 3rd in the new SS consensus ranks with no one below 4, and you, Sir Eno, with him second to only Tulo. That seems optimistic. |
1:00 |
: Steals more valuable than homers. There are a good amount of steals in the game, but not owned because there are more speed-only guys left on your wire than homer guys, meaning ‘playable steals’ are scarce. All Segura needs to do to be a top three SS is .275/7/30 and he’s easily on pace for that.
|
1:01 |
Things are tough living in a van down by the river. Drop 1: Wil Venable, BJ Upton, Emilio Bonifacio |
1:01 |
: Drop venable.
|
1:01 |
The always enjoyable Joe Sheehan wrote about Jose Abreu a few weeks back on how the K/Non-Intentional BB rate spells likely doom for his chances as an elite-guy. I guess I’m thinking he’s probably a .280/.320/.575 guy. |
1:01 |
: In fantasy that’s elite.
|
1:02 |
Crain back in closer role over Qualls upon return or shortly after return? |
1:02 |
: Not a sure thing any more.
|
1:02 |
Keeper: Altuve or Kipnis |
1:02 |
: Kipnis because stolen bases age terribly.
|
1:02 |
How many HRs will Matt Holliday end up with? |
1:02 |
: 18
|
1:02 |
ATL keeping innings down, but when does Alex Wood return to the rotation? When the clock strikes 12 for Floyd or Harang…but best guess when that is? |
1:02 |
: Sometime this month.
|
1:03 |
I know you’re not a prospect guy, but why is it the guys like Jose Ramirez with the Indians, a guy who is playing well in AAA at 21 (after playing well in AA at 20) never seem to make it on top 100 lists while worse, failing, one-time highly touted prospects seem to stick around? |
1:03 |
: There’s definitely some group think as it’s hard to see every prospect and you have to, by definition, talk to a bunch of people to make a whole list.
|
1:04 |
Thoughts on A Jax turning it around? |
1:04 |
: Wrote a whole piece on it for Fox. Definitely like what he’s doing process -wise.
|
1:04 |
Gumballhead Wheat |
1:04 |
: Had that three years ago and was like OH HELL NAW. Had it this year and was like “sure that’s a fine beer.”
|
1:05 |
Anywhere to findout where you can buy the beers on your beergraphs list in different cities around the country? Try to look for them, but never have much luck finding many high ranked ones. |
1:05 |
: You can sort the list for your region, and then you should get locally-produced beers that should be easier to find. As for locations, we’re working on this!
|
1:05 |
Sporcle http://www.sporcle.com/game… |
1:05 |
Do buy Price’s comments that Votto’s not going to be 100% the rest of the season? He’s not a doctor and it’s just a quad strain. |
1:06 |
: When his knee hurt, he didn’t have a great year and talked about how his knee bothered him all year.
|
1:06 |
Re: your earlier B(r)ad Miller comment… just when I start to believe and pick him up, he goes and K’s three times in a game yesterday. WHELP. |
1:06 |
You were high on Drew Smyly. Thoughts on his recent struggles? |
1:07 |
: The year with no change-up work has left him as a fastball/slider guy with homer issues. I’ll be more careful with his starts, and watching for more change-up use.
|
1:07 |
The lude abides. |
1:07 |
(h)ENO(t) gonna answer your question |
1:08 |
I apologize for what I don’t know |
1:08 |
Apparently Zimmerman already figured he was done in the infield… http://www.washingtonpost.c… |
1:08 |
Zimmerman couldn’t throw because of thumb injury. They were saying it will take a while for him to build up arm strength. LF was a way to get him in lineup because he can’t play 3B right now |
1:08 |
: One thing about saying ‘it’s just to get him in lineup now’ is that he’s having these injuries every year now. Might be related to his position.
|
1:08 |
Is Oswaldo Arcia 10-team mixed material? |
1:09 |
: No, mostly a power-only guy in a bad power park.
|
1:09 |
Austin Jackson’s process looks great but the results are just not coming right now, still run him out everyday in fantasy? |
1:09 |
: it’s okay to bench a guy during a bad streak, but streaks aren’t predictive and it’s hard to pick the end points therefore.
|
1:10 |
Over/Under on 25 HRs for Bruce this season? He only has 3 on June 5th. |
1:10 |
: Under but that doesn’t mean he can’t manage a 25 homer pace.
|
1:10 |
There are lot’s of Cuban power hitters that are people’s favorites, who was the one you were referring to? Puig? |
1:10 |
: That was Abreu.
|
1:11 |
All you guys with your hoppy beers. Revolution anti-hero is the best IPA because it’s not bitter! Belgian 4 lyfe |
1:11 |
When will Stone Enjoy By finally arrive in my area? Also, should I go |
1:11 |
: get it
|
1:11 |
I am going to slug a Belwoods Imperial Sour Stout tonight. I wanted you to know this. |
1:12 |
: I actually like sour darks. Almanac sour porter is one of my favorites.
|
1:12 |
Dr. Stroman okay to play against the Red Birds tomorrow? How do you like that Stroman fella going forward? |
1:12 |
: I like Stroman to the point that I’d play him in any league in favorable matchups. A bit homer risky.
|
1:12 |
The Marlins obviously have ZERO idea on RP-value (Think too highly of it). IT would take Gray or Butler for them to deal Cishek. |
1:13 |
: Yuck. Well, then maybe not really worried about any closer being dealt. it doesn’t happen that much actually.
|
1:13 |
Is there a reason ABs are still tracked? Why can’t we just use PA instead? |
1:13 |
: Stupid batting average.
|
1:13 |
WHY AM I STRIKING OUT SO MUCH 🙁 |
1:13 |
: It’s strange, and it’s a trend.
|
1:13 |
If you’re ever in Chicago, let me buy you a beer. |
1:13 |
: meetup July 17th in Chicago.
|
1:14 |
I thought Stickee Monkey wouldn’t count in the league due to it coming out several years ago. |
1:14 |
: AH good point! I forgot it came out before. Good eye.
|
1:14 |
Jon Singleton beasting this year? |
1:14 |
: .240/15 upside the rest of the way.
|
1:14 |
Is Jordan Zimmermann buy-lowy? |
1:14 |
: Yes
|
1:14 |
My boss is mad at you cus I cant stop reading this instead of working |
1:15 |
Picking Wood up if he’s on waivers when back in rotation? |
1:15 |
: Yes and yes.
|
1:15 |
Do you have any confidence left with Rosenthal? |
1:15 |
: yes.
|
1:15 |
You ok with dropping Myers in shallow non keeper leagues? |
1:15 |
: yeah two months is a long time to wait for a .250/25 guy.
|
1:15 |
When will Yelich start hitting for a better avg? Good plate discipline, tons of GBs, speed |
1:15 |
: yes, there are really great underlying signs for him.
|
1:15 |
HODOR |
1:16 |
Ha ha, Astros strikeout joke. How come they don’t strike out the most in the league, then? |
1:17 | : Tenth! Amazing, considering some of the talent on that team (Krauss, Castro, Carter, Singleton). Probably because they platoon the crap out it, and have some low-K guys sprinkled in. Twins worst!! |
1:17 |
![]() No more baggy baseball pants. |
1:17 |
RE Zimmerman: Am I dumb, or is putting someone in the outfield because they can’t throw probably not the best idea? |
1:18 |
: Fewer throws, but more high leverage. LF is where bad arms go, though. (other than 1b).
|
1:18 |
What do you think Sean Doolittle’s ceiling is for this season? From this point on could he be a top-10 closer? |
1:18 |
: yes, his K-BB is elite.
|
1:18 |
What to expect from Trumbo upon his return? |
1:18 |
: power, bad BA.
|
1:18 |
:
|
1:18 |
The new Swans album is downright righteous, but probably too heavy for most people here. |
1:19 |
Singleton shoots up in value for you when SLG and OBP are there own cats right? |
1:19 |
: Yes should walk.
|
1:19 |
Besides years of PAs and data, is there any reason to think that Rajai Davis can’t hit a respectable .280 this year? His peripherals don’t scream regression or anything. |
1:20 |
: Platoon splits have felled him in the past.
|
1:20 |
Instead of showing Avg, Hr, RBI during a game when the batter comes up to hit, what would you put there? |
1:20 |
: wRC+, BABIP, maybe still HR/SB
|
1:20 |
of course, the Royals have the best SO% and a terrible team wRC+ |
1:21 |
Sell high on Cruz for Rios if I need steals, or should I be getting more back? |
1:21 |
: Seems about right actually.
|
1:21 |
re Zim – Apparently it’s an entirely different kind of throwing. Altogether |
1:21 |
johnny damon worst arm ever played cf |
1:21 |
Can you think of one minors pitcher that will be called up from this point forward that will be, frankly, dominant ROS? |
1:21 |
: Heaney is polished and will go into a good situation.
|
1:21 |
Is there a player age that you don’t draft players over or under to limit downside and maximize upside? Like not drafting players over 30 and sticking to 25-29. |
1:22 |
: I never do it on purpose but AL-LABR was super young.
|
1:22 |
: I think a mix is best, but if your league doesn’t trust youngsters, zig while they zag.
|
1:22 |
I have Polanco…a fellow owner loves the Pirates and could have their entire outfield with him. He also has Taveras. Is Taveras and Greinke for Polanco and Lester good for me in a keeper league, or should I press for more? |
1:23 |
: I’d rather a slightly younger pitcher than Greinke, but it’s a fine idea.
|
1:23 |
Does Trout’s K’s concern you? Have a guy that wants to trade me Polanco, Cashner, & Eovaldi for him. I’m streaming 2 start pitchers. I’m out of it era and whip. Trying to win K’s and QS. |
1:23 |
: Not enough.
|
1:23 |
Delmon Young deserves some recognition for worst LF arm ever |
1:23 |
If you had only one stat with which to fill a lineup, would it be wRC+? |
1:24 |
: Probably. The only caveat is that there are many different ways to get to same wRC+ and they not alike. I’d still like a mix, so I’d ask for wRC+ and BB% probably.
|
1:24 |
Is Manny Machado the most overrated fantasy player around? He’s been well below league average offensively for more than a year now. Obviously better in real life because of defense |
1:24 |
: I have no shares.
|
1:24 |
Why am I still stashing Mat Latos? |
1:24 |
…did you have that K% chart restricted to OFs for a reason? Astros are second on the list with 22.7 considering all non-pitchers. WhiteSox worse. |
1:25 |
: If you have the space. (Latos)
|
1:25 | : Stupid. was looking at OFs earlier. yeah the Astros K a lot |
1:25 |
kendrys worth a stash in 12 team standard? |
1:25 |
: Yes
|
1:25 |
Is Xander a Top 5 SS ROS? |
1:25 |
: I had him eight today I think.
|
1:26 |
My overlay stats would be wOBA (to keep the .### format–gotta start somewhere), HR, and…I don’t know the third. Thing about SB is the person is coming to bat, not run, so is SB really relevant enough? |
1:26 |
MASN’s doing a little better now having added a fourth column for OBP. but they keep BA and RBI. |
1:26 |
In the mix for worst LF arm Juan Pierre |
1:26 |
Do most MLBers use the circle-change grip for their changeups? |
1:26 |
: yeah, the Erv and Floyd grips were rare for me.
|
1:26 |
Would you rather have Morneau or Lind ROS? |
1:27 |
: Great one. Lind I guess, despite not playing v LHP.
|
1:27 |
Great to meet you at that SF meet up. You think Morse’s offensive contributions make up for his LF play? |
1:27 |
: By WAR, they don’t do it enough. By team construction, I have to think it was a good deal. This team has strong defense in important positions and good D backups for Morse and Hicks. So those were good gambles to keep them scoring runs.
|
1:28 |
If you’re out of it and selling Miggy in a true dynasty league, what would you be looking for in return? |
1:28 |
: Young bat on the infield plus multiple young pitchers.
|
1:28 |
lol, more clueless… the husband and wife duo wearing “yeah jeets” shirts at the yankees game today, or YES network for zooming in on them? |
1:28 |
Is dan haren more of a streamer than a guy you wanted sticking on your roster in a ten teamer? |
1:28 |
: yes
|
1:28 |
Jaques Jones went through a period where he spiked every throw 5 feet in front of him. |
1:28 |
Expectations for Polanco ROS if he gets the call in the next couple of weeks? |
1:28 |
: .275/10/20 full season pace.
|
1:29 |
Who are the best buy low pitchers you think one could reasonably get in a trade for Hosmer? |
1:30 |
: God I bet Bailey is too much. Zimmermann? Archer?
|
1:30 |
tim hudson has a higher K% than justin verlander so far |
1:30 |
isn’t that just the silliest |
1:30 |
Re: Polanco — think Paganish for 2014? |
1:30 |
: Maybe. Unsure how many steals he’ll go for as a rookie.
|
1:30 |
What bar for the Chicago meet up? |
1:30 |
: Possibly Sheffields? still planning.
|
1:30 |
Kendrys or Singelton RoS? |
1:31 |
: kendrys in redraft.
|
1:31 |
Huston Street sell-high enough to get Garrett Richards? Or am I one start too late to make that offer? |
1:31 |
: Might as well try.
|
1:31 |
Do you see Roenis Elias keeping this up? |
1:31 |
: he’ll have some command blow ups but in a general way, sure.
|
1:31 |
When evaluating a player or a trade do you use ZIPS and STEAMER ratings? |
1:31 |
: I look at both and then at my favorite peripherals.
|
1:31 |
wait why are people having a debate on terrible outfield arms when the ultimate answer is an always will be raul ibanez |
1:31 |
drop taijuan as a stash in 12 team standard? |
1:32 |
: was there bad news? I think he’ll be up soon and be good.
|
1:32 |
what about the kid in the sandlot who had to walk the ball to the infield |
1:32 |
El Farolito was assessed as having the #1 VORB (Value Over Replacement Burrito) at 538 today. As a native, agree or disagree? |
1:32 |
: Love love Farolito. But it’s the greasy, almost see-through, late-night burrito. Papalote is where I take the family for healthy ingredients.
|
1:33 |
What are some of your favorite peripherals to evaluate a player? |
1:34 |
pitchers: K%, swSTR%, BB%, velocity, per pitch swSTR%, GB%, BABIP hitters; K%, GB/FB, PU% (IFFB), Batted Ball distance, BABIP |
1:34 |
What bar should I go to in Philly this weekend? |
1:34 |
Odor worth owning in 12 teamers? |
1:34 |
: .260/15/10 full season type upside. Marginal.
|
1:35 |
How is a last name of “Keuchel” not pronounced KOY-kull |
1:35 |
: I think it is but don’t ask me. It looks German though, and I’m German, and you’ve got it right except that german CH is a little more nuanced than “k”.
|
1:36 |
Ventura’s last two starts were not good… |
1:37 |
: Eh, 6Ks, 3BBs in 8.2 innings? not terrible by k-bb at least. And the last game was the injury one.
|
1:37 |
Maxamuz, go to Paddy’s Pub. |
1:37 |
RE: Philly bar Good Dog! |
1:37 |
@maxamuz phillybeerweek.org pick your favorite events |
1:37 |
Maxamus go to McGillin’s Olde Ale House in philly |
1:37 |
@maxamuz, but generally for beer, strangeloves, khyber pass pub, and lots of others |
1:37 |
maxamuz: Russian River brunch event at local 44 on Sunday, if you’re into that. Otherwise: Eulogy, Sidecar, American Sardine Bar, POPE, Bainbridge Barrel House. Irish Pol if you like divey |
1:37 |
: We’ve got phlly handled.
|
1:37 |
Traded away TJ’d Fernandez for Bruce instead of Machado. Right call? |
1:37 |
: Yes
|
1:38 |
Space might be an issue, but the Hopleaf is the best bar in Chicago. |
1:38 |
: Interesting. I liked the Map room too.
|
1:38 |
![]() You guys make me so happy. |
1:38 |
my word, austin jackson hit a hit in a baseball game |
1:38 |
: IT”S HAPPENING
|
1:38 |
whens the 3rd base ranking come out? |
1:39 |
: tomorrow!
|
1:39 |
s&b today? |
1:39 |
: Of course! AND in FULL STEREO. (well I don’t know what FULL means)
|
1:39 |
pew pew pew |
1:39 |
: ARG YE GOT ME
|
1:39 |
I be from Jamaica mon, right down by the beach, BOYEEEE. |
1:39 |
Melancon saves RoS: __ |
1:39 |
: 5
|
1:40 |
Eddie Butler? |
1:40 |
: Yah. was working on stuff in Triple-A, bet the training wheels come off and and you see the plus plus change, good curve, great velocity.
|
1:41 |
: Crap!
|
1:41 |
: I gotta get going!
|
1:41 |
: Thanks for coming, guys!
|
1:41 |
Later Eno |
1:41 |
![]() Bye Eno. |
1:42 |
: creepy.
|
1:42 |
Bye Eno! |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
If a .300 hitter faced a pitcher who held hitters to a .250 average, everything else being equal, what would the hitter’s long-term batting average look like? I believe Bill James had a formula to predict the winning percentage of 2 teams facing each other, would this be similar?
There’s always one…