Eric Longenhagen Chat

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. I’ll give questions another minute or two to trickle in and then get going

Pete: Will there be an end of season update to the top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: v Yes, early next week

Eric A Longenhagen: (obvs the questions and answers are inverted here. I actually can’t modify that mid-chat, my bad)

guest: Thomas Saggese went from a 40 on the ’21 list to unranked in this years despite a strong debut season. Is he firmly back in the 40 range after a his showing this year in hi-a and cameo at Frisco?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Autumn: How do you factor in makeup into your grade for a player? Example of someone you may have bumped up or down because of stories you’ve heard

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s very difficult to include “makeup” at scale for a number of reasons. To do so for the couple thousand players I write up is nearly impossible, to say nothing of the person to person variation in the way they define makeup. I’ll stumble into some stuff just through conversation with scouts and front office personnel but I’m not actively trying to incorporate it into my evals across the board.

Romorr: Welcome back, missed these chats! Jordan Westburg, Conner Norby, and Joey Ortiz have all had successful seasons. Any chance one, or more, crack the top 100? 45 FV, or above for all 3 now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ortiz will be in the top 100 update, Westburg is part of a group of upper-level infielders who defense needs to be re-evaluated in light of the banned shift. What are his realistic defensive homes now that he doesn’t get a lift from the shift? How does he fit there. Guys who shift to 1B/3B, it’s a much higher bar than the MIF

Ray: Thoughts on Rays RHP Michael Mercado‘s season? Preseason prospect had him with a velo increase, and he seemed to pitch better after adding a cutter mid season. K numbers were good, overall ERA middling.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sitting 93-95, has swing-and-miss ability at top/arm side part of zone, slider and changeup both big league average, maybe changeup can keep getting better. solid stuff contributor, probably not huge impact

Octavius: With the recent vibrator controversy in chess and poker do we really think it was that outrageous for the Astros to have been using buzzers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Given what I know about how people have cheated at gambling throughout history, it’s entirely possible. Do i think it’s true? Probably not.

James: Is Hunter Brown a future ace or more of a 2-3 starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s probably a great reliever

Tyler: How much of a hit do Shane Baz and Max Meyer take on a list knowing they won’t be healthy and in the majors until at least their Age-25 seasons?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d look at it as a function of time more than injury risk (though wouldn’t ignore the persistent injury risk), as if they’re players on track to debut in 2024 like that similarly-talented college pitchers from this year’s draft. Probably near or just outside the top 100. Meyer already moved.

Jerry: Why was peyton graham ranked 10th despite having a 4 hit tool and 5 power

Eric A Longenhagen: Legit defensive SS. Go look at the shortstops who accumulated 2-3 WAR this year and tell me if they’re monster offensive players.

Veronica: Trying my hand at scouting during the AFL. Tips for making my schedule? Best restaurant/bar to meet up with other scouts at night?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends if you live here or if you’re visiting. If you’re visiting *do not* come here during Fall Stars. Come during one of the mid-October Saturdays when you have a triple header. You’re costing yourself looks at players if you come for Fall Stars. Just try to incorporate as many double ups into your schedule as possible

Horace: Daniel Palencia. Top pitching prospect in baseball potential? Absolute heist by Hoyer

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not, but yes the Cubs absolutely took advantage of the A’s not yet knowing what they had there.

Biff: couple years ago you were still high on india apparently believing injuries had hid his true talent . Anyone. Come to mind this year in a similar fashion?

Eric A Longenhagen: Henry Davis

Jack: What kind of player can Evan Carter be? Seems he is solid all around – and very young – but are there any standout tools?

Eric A Longenhagen: Premium plate discipline, big time soft skill player, agree there’s not a ton of power tho

Joel: Did more teams utilize Hawk-Eye in the minor leagues this year? Any word on any edges teams gained from the data?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some teams seems to be like a half decade ahead of others in their use of kinatrax and other means of assessing movement, finding things that can be improved, and implementing those changes to players’ mechanics.

Jon: is Miguel Bleis someone who might jump into 50 tier this cycle or is that a little early?

Eric A Longenhagen: The plate discipline piece there is pretty scary, but he is an up-the-middle type with 70 bat speed so it’s totally defensible to have him there based on what his high-end outcomes are, even if there’s risk

Cornelius: Eury Perez for Anthony Volpe. Who says no?

Eric A Longenhagen: Miami

Freddy: More likely to be a post-hype success: Spencer Howard or Daniel Lynch?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say Lynch. Healthier, like how loose and fluid his delivery is.

Alan: Are? Endy Rodriguez’s power numbers legit

Eric A Longenhagen: His power is closer to average

Guest: Do you have updated FVs on Strider/Harris/Grissom?  Grissom obviously may not have moved as much…

Eric A Longenhagen: The graduated Braves who I was too low on are probably both 60s. I still think Harris’ walk rate indicates some amount of regression, though. Grissom I’d still 45, he’s good.

Jeff: Is Bobby Miller’s command going to be good enough to be a top of the rotation starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe, but the shape of his fastball may also be a barrier. Still a good player, I’m not one to throw around TOR.

Braydon: Does Jordan Walker‘s transition to the outfield impact his value much if at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s tough because when you look at position by position baselines (which I’ve been revisiting from a surface performance standpoint, and from a more granular bat-to-ball/exit velo/barrel equivalent standpoint) 3B is a cut above every other position right now. The Arenado/Machado/Ramirez group and the second tier (Riley, Bregman, etc.) are so good right now that it buoys the standard at that position. I think the shift for Walker is relatively neutral, the offensive bar at 3B and LF aren’t all that different right now, though 3B gives you a better chance to have a huge D impact (like Ke’Bryan)

Indiana: Would Kyler Murray have been a better fit to play baseball considering his video game addiction and unwillingness to watch tape?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe!

Frank: Noelvi marte seem like a 3b or outfielder long term?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s gotten heavier but is still so young that he might alter course and end up at SS still. He’s obviously a key Fall League eval. The power is so easy, I haven’t been keen to slide him this year.

Ben Schneider: Hi Eric, great to have another chat.  When you say info is “sourced,” does that mean you/FG is paying for it?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, i mean it in a journalistic sense.

RyanAZfan: FMK pfaadt-Nelson-Jameson

Eric A Longenhagen: Jameson, Pfaadt, Nelson

Darren: Did the Royals break Asa Lacy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Willing to give their dev group the benefit of the doubt there. Lacy had strike-throwing issues throughout his whole life, except for that brief 4 week stretch before the pandemic. You could either buy that the changes were actual improvements or be skeptical that they were small sample blips. Lacy seems to be a blip. Spencer Strider? Real. Tough draft for all involved.

Mike: Luis Ortiz(Pirates) seemed to be ranked pretty low for what he has shown in a starting role? Is it just concerns over whether he ends up in the bullpen?

Eric A Longenhagen: The arm action length put him in that bucket but he’s thrown enough strikes at this point (same as Brayan Bello) to override that. He’ll be on the 100 in the update

April Stowers: Kyle Stowers is getting a taste of the bigs. Does he look like more than a 4th OF to you?

Eric A Longenhagen: He does not, but that 4th OF/platoon guy is a hugely important role player. Still think he’ll mash righties enough to have a long, important big league career.

Chris: Thoughts on jarred kelenic’s small sample of changes? Think he can be an everyday guy starting next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: His underlying numbers at triple-a look pretty good but he’s really struggling to get to low breakers. Not just breakers beneath the zone, he tends to swing over top of ones that don’t finish and still find the bottom third of the zone. Might be the type of guy who lifted too much, lost some twitch and flexibility, and now can’t dip enough in his lower half to reach those low pitches.

Curious George: Any upcoming updates on the Jan 15 International dudes?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, draft and int’l updates as list season gets going again here shortly

Bernie Brewer: Hearing nice things on Jacob Misiarowski.  Does that line up with your reports?  Thanks Eric

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, had him in the first round pre-draft and so far so good. Just one Instructs outing that I know about, was 98-100

Steve O: Oswaldo Cabrera.. could he be an every day regular? Or is he better as a utility guy who can play IF/OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he’s an everyday guy, or close to it. Power is real, has added 40 pounds since signing. Hit tool might end up a little below avg but probably gets to enough power to be a 45 (where I had him) or 50.

Andrew: Was promoting Jackson Chourio to AA a good decision by the Brewers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Meh, don’t think a week of games really matters

Farhandrew Zaidman: Which Dodgers farm arm will have the biggest impact on the big league club in 2023 – Miller, Grove, Stone, Knack, Pepiot?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Miller

JK: Appreciate all the hard work you put into the site Eric! Would love to get your take on Vaun Brown.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s going to be a tough one. Power seems real, hit tool might be a little light, depends how much age-related adjustment you make to the hit tool projection/confidence.

Guest: Concerned about Edwin Arroyo’s drop off after leaving the Cal league? Or is this normal for such a young player to wear down at the end of first full season

Eric A Longenhagen: I wasn’t exactly “all in” on him being a star prior to the deal for the reasons you allude to. Cal League was definitely inflating things. Have had/still have him evaluated as a good MIF role player, whose swing allows him to get to most of his modest power because of its lift. Solid, not a star for me.

Troy: Is there anything you’d change about your evals of the consensus top three guys (Adley, Julio, Witt)? Anything really surprising about what they have done compared to what you thought?

Eric A Longenhagen: Julio slimming down and becoming a 70 runner after he was 4 runner in ’19

Lark: Welcome back! No question, just green to see you!

Eric A Longenhagen: gracias, needed a blow

Trent: Who’s the next Arraez in the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Could be Luke Waddell or Darren Baker, could be Roque Salinas. Yohel Pozo also super Astudillo-y

Gross Nationals Product: Most likely to stay at SS … Noelvi or Elly?

Eric A Longenhagen: Elly, plays so low for his size, it’s amazing

Matt: Does Edgar Quero just need to show continued performance at higher levels in order to merit a 50 FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: He might already be there. You know how I feel about catchers with any kind of offensive ability

Teddy: Thoughts on Quincy Hamilton?

Eric A Longenhagen: Really liked him as an older guy coming out of Wright St (and Loperfido fwiw), has some vulnerability to fastballs at top of zone that may be exploited with more exposure to upper levels but he’s definitely a prospect now

Sam: Missed opportunity over last couple years: implementation of “designated fielder” that can be used if your pitcher hits. Why shouldn’t LAA get the benefit from having Ohtani hit, the same way it would under old NL rules?  Players Union whiffed on this, could’ve opened the door for several SS/C defensive whizzes that can’t hack it at the plate. Obviously not a massive change to the game (not many pitchers hit well enough for this to be utilized much) , but I literally see zero drawbacks to this

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m interested in alternatives like this, yeah. I also think the extra inning runner rule should be augmented so that he starts at 1B, but so there’s flexibility in who you can pick rather than the last out. If you roster Terrence Gore he should be able to go to 1B over and over again in extra innings and never hit

Troy: Is Christian Javier’s career path one the Mariners should look to take with Matt Brash? Has been overly wild as a starter but a hammer as a reliever. The idea is ween him back into starting over the next couple years, but use him for whatever in the playoffs.

Eric A Longenhagen: Totally agree with this and the multi-inning RP -> SP path in general

JT: Carroll is 5’7 150 and has an 85 mph avg exit velo rn. People really think this guy is a future superstar?

Eric A Longenhagen: His forearms are thicker than my neck, he had a 90 mph avg exit velo as a college-age player at Triple-A all year, 116 max, hard hit rate of 47%, tryhard baseball rat with 80 speed… yeah dude

Kate: Niko Kavadas has been getting a fair amount of hype in the fantasy community.  Have you moved up on him at all?  Or is he just the older, corner only, platoon bat that my eyes are telling me he is?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s definitely the type of guy who’s more valuable in fantasy than real life. Totally buy that he’ll be a big league contributor and hit for enough power to be fantasy relevant but more in the 1 WAR area as a real life 1B/DH option

Dan: Youre back from a PED suspension? I thought coffee is legal or is the a more exotic PED for sportswriters?

Eric A Longenhagen: Shrooms

Ted: How much has Tanner Bibbe’s stuff improved? What’s his upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: he’ll also be on the top 100 update. mid-rotation type on a playoff team

Jon: Is Grant McCray anything?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tess and I had a long talk about him this week, hit tool risk but power/speed combo give him huge ceiling. High-variance 45 for us entering the offseason

Joe: Welcome back! Glad to hear your thoughts again. What do you think of Ben Brown P in the cubs systems?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m probably too light on him at the moment. Impact fastball/breaker combo, at least looks like an impact

Eric A Longenhagen: bullpen arm who’s going to be on their 40 this offseason

Ryan: How does Andrew painter compare to Eury Perez?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve never seen anything like Eury Perez before, folks. Painter is very good, Perez is maybe a singular thing.

RyanAZfan: What do you do with Alek Thomas? Hold him in the system in case of injuries or use to fill other talent gaps

Eric A Longenhagen: Really tough question. You don’t wanna sell low on somebody like that either, and I still think he’ll be better than McCarthy long term, but also he hd basically no approach this year. Still so young, I think they should just let things play out a little longer.

SH, Jr: Guardians likely to have to choose between Will Brennan and Bo Naylor for post season roster eligibility. If it were up to you: ride the hot hand with Brennan or take the 3rd catcher for pinch hit flexibility, even though Naylor would be debuting in the post season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Naylor might be their everyday catcher at some point next year, gotta roster him.

Kate: Have you heard anything about injuries to Ian Lewis or Colin Barber?  Both seemed to disappear towards the end of the year.  Any concerns about how either of them ended up?  Lewis seemed to never really get it going and Barber seemed to fall off a bit towards the end of the year (though maybe not surprising given how much time he’s missed).

Eric A Longenhagen: I have not. Lewis has no idea at the plate. His tools are incredible but he has zero approach. Barber I have no idea. I see your Cappe question in here, too and think you’re 100% on that. Zero launch from him, but his feel to hit and D ability at his age are great and he has huge physical projection because his build is basically ideal.

TJJ: How’d you spend your break from writing? Seeing as much baseball as always or did you get some true time off? Love having you back!

Eric A Longenhagen: Have done a lot of collecting data from the season lining the coffers for list-making. Visited home. Usual stuff.

D backs fan: Hey Eric thanks for your time. Any dope on Yu-Min Lin?

Eric A Longenhagen: Super loose, athletic lefty with sneaky uphill fastball, missed a ton of bats with it even though it sits upper-80s. Love the changeup. Athletic lefty with cambio, needs to develop velo but looks like he has the athletic foundation to do it. Nice pitching prospect, prob 40+ for me this offseason since there’s real rotation ceiling imo

Tom: Where is Daniel Espino?  He suffered what appeared to be a minor knee injury and hasn’t pitched in months.

Eric A Longenhagen: idk bro, I’ve bugged some CLE people when I’ve seen them at games/events and they aren’t exactly forthcoming about that stuff, which I get.

D backs fan: Does Ryne Nelson results in MLB change his grade in your mind or too small a sample?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s the velo that changed my mind. Was sitting like 91 earyl this year, sitting 95 upon promotion. Was going to be in the 100 update but the injury has him just outside it again.

Kate: A new name for me this season is Gleider Figuereo.  Dude absolutely mashed in the complex and was pretty damn young for the level.  Is he a dude?  I’m assuming the speed is a lower level mirage, but is there some hit tool to go along with the pop?

Eric A Longenhagen: Didn’t love the in-person look here this summer.

Eric A Longenhagen: ok everyone, I’ve gotta split. Thans for chatting with me this week and have a great weekend.