Eric Longenhagen Prospect Chat: 4/10/2026
| 12:31 |
: What’s up party people? Happy Friday from my old man’s place in Catty, and thanks for being patient while I helped my grandmother with some stuff this morning. I’m gonna keep things to about 45 minutes today so I can catch my flight to Florida.
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| 12:32 |
: Eric, thanks as always for your thorough work and unparalleled depth in the A’s prospect list. This is like Christmas morning for me!
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| 12:32 |
: Hey thanks, it was fun to sit on them for a bunch of the spring and feel good about wrapping my arms around the whole lot of these fellas. Kade Morris!
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| 12:33 |
: A 45 FV is a big jump in your eval of Junior Perez, considering he didn’t get a mention on their list last year. What changed for you? Just more confidence in the whole profile thanks to contact and defense gains?
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| 12:34 |
: I was too light on his CF defense last cycle and that piece is the biggest reason why Perez > Bolte.
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| 12:34 |
: Is MIL Luke Adams’ overly-passive hitting profile sustainable? His contact quality and approach are excellent, but he’s still not swinging the bat enough. And I’m worried about his defense.
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| 12:35 |
: We have him in as a 1 WAR role player type, more the sort who is on the fringe of the roster than playing daily. Just light on power for a guy with his defensive limitations. Still a big leaguer, but of limited impact.
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| 12:36 |
: Nice start from Gavin Kilen on the year. What would you like to see from him this year?
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| 12:38 |
: Saw a lot of him this spring, the bat to ball piece is there, didn’t get to see him do a ton on defense. I hope they promote him to Richmond fairly quickly, like say by the end of May? I wanna see him challenged.
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| 12:38 |
: Eric! I noticed that both Owen Caissie and Edward Cabrera are tearing up the league at present—Caissie is running up a 170+ wRC+, and Cabrera is pitching like an ace, and depending on the flavor you look at both of them have already accrued half a WAR. Crossing fingers for health of course, and taking into consideration “it’s April,” but this is looking like a case of both teams getting exactly what they wanted out of a deal. No real question, I just love it when a plan comes together.
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| 12:40 |
: I’m with you, Cabrera always feels like a ticking time bomb for injury and if Miami got an everyday bat out of that deal, it’s a long term win for them. Conversely, Eddie has always been a “but if things clic for this guy he’s gonna have a 6 or 7 WAR season, and if the Cubbies have caught lightning in a bottle for even two of his three years just because they had an OF logjam to trade from? That’s nice.
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| 12:40 |
: (Bill Walton voice) Equilibrium!
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| 12:40 |
: Is Lagrange the Yankee’s 8th inning guy by June?
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| 12:42 |
: I don’t think I’d wanna jump through the hoops you’d have to jump through that soon. You’re stunting his development by doing it that early, and you have to make other roster moves to accommodate it… I think the time to do it would be late, late in the year. If it’s obvious he’s one of your twelve best arms in August and you’re in the thick of a playoff push, let’s roll.
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| 12:42 |
: Was a bit surprised to see Breyson Guedez with only a 30 future hit tool, given his plus contact rates and your mention of his power/hit combo. I assume it’s because of the chase rate?
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| 12:42 |
: That’s a typo I need to fix
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| 12:43 |
: thanks for catching it. He does need a reduction below the raw contact quality to account for the chase but not *that* much
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| 12:44 |
: I can’t tweak it on The Board at the moment because Meg is editing the Rangers list, but I’ll fix it in the post itself as we go here.
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| 12:44 |
: He’s good, I loved getting to watch him against older opponents this spring.
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| 12:44 |
: In the case of Kenya Huggins how do you balance the results on the changeup vs the movement profile itself?
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| 12:44 |
: When the sample is that small (he only threw 110 changeups all of last year) just trust your eyes
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| 12:44 |
: Any realistic chance that Tommy White can play a passable 3B defensively?
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| 12:46 |
: He’s a mixed bag over there, he does some nice things (he can throw, I love his footwork and body control) and struggles at others (range, hands). I think he *has* to play there some of the time to be useful, I have a tough time seeing him hitting enough to be a 1B-only roster fit.
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| 12:46 |
: But he can really pick it at first, all of his skills shine there
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| 12:46 |
: Have you gotten any looks at Josiah Hartshorn yet? Is he a possible dude? Big bonus and a good start so far in a small sample.
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| 12:46 |
: Josiah Hartshorn is off to a fantastic start – could he be a quick riser?
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| 12:48 |
: Yeah, it’s going to be interesting to see how his body develops over time. It’s already a good bit different than when he was in high school. He’s a good hitter, he has real physicality, I was essentially primed for him to have a good spring and hot start by Sahadev and AZ Phil, and when I started seeing Cubs the last two weeks of ST he was indeed good. Shot to be this year’s Edward Florentino and reinforce so much confidence in the bat that we don’t care it’s 1B.
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| 12:48 |
: Has the outlook changed on Luis Hernandez in extended spring training? Does he pass Level this year on the board?
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| 12:48 |
: IDK, Level looks pretty good…
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| 12:50 |
: Luis has been good in my looks. He’s a smaller guy but his swing is so beautiful and well-connected, he’s getting a ton out of his body even though it’s small and he’s very skilled. His numbers at Papago will be nutty if he’s there all summer.
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| 12:50 |
: Any idea how long Braden Nett will be out due to injury?
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| 12:50 |
: Sadly no, since it’s shoulder (I was told) it could be a while.
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| 12:50 |
: What is Cam Schlitter’s floor at this point, assuming health? A #2?
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| 12:51 |
: Yeah, #2/3 on a good team if it just looks like this in perpetuity.
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| 12:51 |
: Any idea when Edward Florentino will be back for game action? Last I heard, he was supposed to be back in early April, but I haven’t seen him play yet.
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| 12:51 |
: I’ll get on that case when I’m in Florida since Pirates are part of my targets down there.
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| 12:52 |
: Does Made have the footspeed to steal bases at he major league level or is he taking advantage of minor leagues where it seems anyone can steal bases if they want to.
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| 12:52 |
: I would take the under on what he’s done so far, his body is changing and looking more like power-hitting 2B
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| 12:52 |
: Do you have any info on Taitn Gray from Tampa? They’re off to a strong start in A ball. Almost a $1m bonus 3rd round HS pick last draft is all I could find.
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| 12:54 |
: Had an insane BP at the Combine, really exciting physical projection, built in that way where if I told you he was a serious athlete in basically any sport you’d believe me. At the time we had very little idea how the hit tool and defense would translate, six games in so far so good. Really high ceiling’d kid, still a lot of risk there
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| 12:54 |
: Loved the aggressive grade on Wilder Dalis! What would he need to do in the first couple months to get added to the T100?
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| 12:55 |
: Let’s see where the power is at in a measurable sense. Both Brendan and I thought the bat speed had ticked up this spring compared to last year, now we wanna know exactly how much.
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| 12:55 |
: I’m dying for another home grown Yankees position plater star. How confident should I be in Lombard Jr.?
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| 12:55 |
: *Star* is a little much for me there, more solid everyday shortstop who K’s a bunch but hits for a decent amount of pull power and plays great defense.
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| 12:55 |
: How does Jackson Flora stack up to other recent top of the class college pitchers? Both in terms of present ability and future projection
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| 12:57 |
: I think he’s definitely behind Skenes and probably behind (or level) with Chase Burns and what I thought about Doyle last year.
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| 12:58 |
: Law has Lackey at #2!! Thinking Cubs at 23….what’s Brady Neal missing?
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| 12:58 |
: I’m on board with Lackey that high, had him sixth entering the year which was probably (I think?) highest of the peer group at the time. Neal lacks typical catcher size. I have liked him since HS tho.
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| 12:58 |
: What your thoughts on the weight that Made put on? Is that going to push him off of SS (maybe Pratt does that anyways)?
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| 12:59 |
: Yeah, it’s scary how fast he got this big. Still has Ketel/Cano right tail outcomes, sooo much power.
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| 12:59 |
: I think you mentioned in the past you were hoping to see Dorian Soto? Has this happened? Any news?
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| 12:59 |
: I’ll be en route to Fort Myers in 150 minutes
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| 1:00 |
: SSS but Rushing looking much more like who we thought he was coming up so far this year. Is he really just stuck behind Will Smith for the foreseeable future? That would be so sad.
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| 1:01 |
: Man, I wonder what they’re gonna do. They ripped the AJ Ellis band-aid off once, right? Maybe Smith is an offseason candidate to move, I think you find ways for both of them to play a fair bit this season and it’s not a problem.
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| 1:01 |
: Smith’s contract only gets more team friendly as it goes, it’s just about weighing how much is left in the tank.
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| 1:02 |
: When you co-write a Top 100+ list—this year, or in general— which group causes more debate: the end of the 50 grades (i.e. players who just made the list) or the top of the 45s (players who just missed)?
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| 1:02 |
: The just missed group and the guys toward the back of the 55 FV tier
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| 1:03 |
: If Benge needs to be sent down, is there any outfielder in the system who could give the Mets league average production?
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| 1:03 |
: I think they’d just platoon Taylor and Melendez/Young. Morabito is more a Speed/D reserve guy, maybe Ronny Mo finds a way to play more often. Did I underrate how long Benge’s swing is?
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| 1:04 |
: Is there anyone in the Twins system that could realistically become the everyday first baseman at the big league level in say the next 2-3 seasons?
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| 1:04 |
: I think you’re looking at the Tait timeline if it turns out he can’t catch.
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| 1:05 |
: What do you expect Waldschmidt’s role will be in the second half?
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| 1:05 |
: Blerg, what is Lourdes’ timeline? The snakes are soo injured again. I mean look at this: 2026 Arizona Diamondbacks Depth Chart | RosterResource | FanGraphs Baseball
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| 1:07 |
: Let’s let Waldschmidt’s hit tool stabilize some at triple-a before throwing him in there, but I have to believe he’ll be more dangerous than Tawa/Barrosa/Alek Thomas right away
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| 1:07 |
: Looks like the Mariners are holding Becker back for complex season? Any insight there? Are they working on his swing?
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| 1:08 |
: Just a long young guy growing into his body and I think they learned some stuff from having been overzealous with Tai Peete that they’re slow playing Becker. He might go to A ball later this year if he hits on the complex. I’m glad to get to see him when I get back to the desert later this month.
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| 1:09 |
: Was watching McLean’s start last night after looking at FG’s new pitching tool, and the DBacks lost two ABS challenges against him. Could level of deception be an even more important skill now to potentially cause opponents to burn challenges early in a game?
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| 1:10 |
: Yeah I think we’re still learning about what might lead a player to challenge and some of these guys with crazy breaking balls are at the top of the list for who I think might benefit from the system. I think teams are over-indexed for situations right now and under-indexed for which guys actually know the zone. Aren’t the new tools cool?
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| 1:10 |
: Our website is pretty sweet.
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| 1:11 |
: Really happy to be part of it. Ten years in June.
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| 1:11 |
: Any rough ranges on where the ’26 Draft guys are tracking for the hundo?
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| 1:13 |
: Roch probably 10-15, Emerson toward the rear of that young SS group in the high 50 FV tier, Lackey probably close to them, too. Flora right ahead of Kade Anderson. Gracia idk if I think he’ll be a 50 by draft time because of the defense piece. Booth might sneak on toward he back.
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| 1:13 |
: Tyring to think about who else I might stuff, feels like I’m missing a name.
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| 1:14 |
: What do you feel is the next untapped inefficiency in baseball? Do you think it has to do with player development? We are so granular at this point it’s hard to think of anything that hasn’t been beaten into the ground yet.
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| 1:14 |
: Africa
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| 1:15 |
: I think over time that could be a big deal.
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| 1:16 |
: And I hope MLB approaches it in a way that avoids some of the ugly ways people in latin america have been impacted by the system there.
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| 1:17 |
: Folks should read Alden Gonzalez’s story from this week. I know you know a lot of that stuff if you’ve been coming here and reading, but it’s good that the bigger outlets are surfacing it for your dad to read.
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| 1:18 |
: BTW my dad asked me this week if you bunt at the ball and miss, is it a strike? Autodidacts ftw. Taught me how to play every guitar chord there is, sports are not his thing.
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| 1:18 |
: I really appreciate that you give us hard hit rates on The Board. How rare is it for a DSL player to put up a 50%+ HH rate like Edgar Montero?
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| 1:18 |
: It’ rare but it can also be misleading. See: Escotto, Maikel
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| 1:18 |
: Happy Friday, Eric. Not your domain but Trey Gregory-Alford is showing as playing for Seattle’s A ball team on the fangraphs page…
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| 1:18 |
: I’ll alert the dev guys, thank you.
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| 1:19 |
: When an unranked guy like Ben Rice takes off like this in the big leagues, what was usually missed in the prospect evaluation?
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| 1:20 |
: In his case i’d say it was just: Look how big and strong that left-handed hitter is, you wanna stay on that guy. Sometimes I’m just an idiot who stays skeptical for its own sake, and I think that’s what happened there. We also had a huge run of guys crushing at Trenton/Somerset and then not doing anything (Diego Castillo, Hoy Park) and that put me off the scent some.
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| 1:20 |
: can we have your 2026 city connect Official jersey rankings?
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| 1:21 |
: I honestly have been so offline either driving, at games, or with family since last thursday that i’ve barely seen them. Lemme peek really quick and then I need to go to the airport with my aunt…
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| 1:23 |
: 80: none 70: Padres 60: Pirates 55: Royals 50: Braves, Rangers 45: Reds 40: Orioles, Brewers |
| 1:23 |
: Okay, that’s all for me. I promise when I’m back in AZ we’ll do a two-plus hour version of this. See you on the backfields in FL this week.
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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.