Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/24/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from crisp Tempe where guys are cutting dead limbs off of trees on my street. Some of these big coniferous jawns haven’t been doing so well with temps being what they’ve been. When should I move?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s chat.

Anne: Bullish on the offensive ceilings of Xavier Isaac and Laz Montes? Seen them slip in some rankings, but purely on offense still middle of the order type ceilings?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have been higher on Isaac than Montes. Montes doesn’t have enormous power. I know he’s huge, but he’s slugged more because of the leagues/stadiums he’s played in more than because of his raw power. He also has a sub-70% contact rate. Mariners prospects can be overvalued during the Modesto/Everett window and then perhaps people over correct when they get to Arkansas (which is a tough place to hit)…

Eric A Longenhagen: Isaac has elite power, but his swing is a mess and needs to change if he’s going to hit enough to be relevant. His ceiling, imo, is clearly higher than Lazaro’s because the power is lurking.

Fans MLB Forever: What do you think about the anonymous voters that the Cooperstown Hall of Fame has and what would be the solution or what do you think about the minimum vote for each ballot being 5 votes or more?

Eric A Longenhagen: First let me remind readers that I am not part of any of these bodies that do the voting, be it on single-season awards or the HoF…

Eric A Longenhagen: I think if you believe you are competent enough to cast a reasonable vote, that you should have to make it public. Every time we have an issue like this, where someone’s vote is way out of pocket, it’s always a person who keeps their ballot a secret. Every troll is a coward…

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s consistent, across more than just HoF voting, and it might be as simple as forcing the body to publicize its votes, and maybe explain them.

Eric A Longenhagen: But this is what it brings about, more than we are revisiting the careers of these guys, we are talking about this one dope.

Eric A Longenhagen: If you told me that I could strategically not vote for Ichiro, and that instead if I voted for Kenny Lofton it would ensure Lofton stayed on the ballot, then maybe I’d do it.

Eric A Longenhagen: But the fact that strategic voting like this is incentivized is a sign that the way the voting is done is dumb.

Eric A Longenhagen: I also get people want to striate this stuff. It’s not enough to say that Derek Jeter is a HoF’er, people want you to know where they think he fits among the group, how he ranks with Frank Robinson, etc. And I think people try to achieve that via making guys wait before they vote for them.

Eric: Raudy Reyes becoming Jarlin Susana would be like a favorable outcome for the Braves, yes?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Fans MLB Forever: What do you think happened that Bregman has not signed?

Eric A Longenhagen: The way he’s conducted himself is a problem for some?

James: What do you think of the A’s trio of pitching prospects: Luis Morales, Mason Barnett, and Jack Perkins? Do any of them realistically project as mid-rotation starters?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m pretty miserly when it comes to handing out “mid rotation” grades. I thin Morales has the talent for it, Barnett is more of a 4/5 for me (which to you might mean mid rotation) while Perk I think is a reliever.

Eric A Longenhagen: Here is the A’s list Oakland Athletics Top 32 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Shirtless George Brett: Will any of the Royals catching prospects actually stick at catcher? looking at Mitchell and Jensen’s fielding lines is pretty scary (Mitchell allowed 110 SB and had 16 errors in only 530 innings? WTF?)

Eric A Longenhagen: Both are sketchy. That’s par for a teenage catcher, the lack of progress from both is frustrating. You keep both alive as prospects because the league wide inventory at that position is scarce.

Guest: Do you think it was coincidence the Rays acquired three arms at the deadline that all have Tanner Houck profiles, all low slot releases that do not give up HRs ? And who of the three has highest ceiling ?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Hopkins. And they, and a lot of the league, has been more on low-release guys for the last little while

Tim: Am I right to be concerned about Spencer Jones? That strikeout rate was monstrous and even though the counting stats looked nice in the end, it won’t matter if he’s already striking out so massively.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you can be concerned and excited at the same time. Take a ten thousand foot view, he’s a 6’6″ former two way guy, did we think he’d never need an adjustment period?

Cliff Avril: You don’t grade many tools as a 65 these days. Not a complaint or anything. Just an observation.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, unless there’s a good reason to do it (if a guy has 70 raw power but I think it’ll play down a shade because his approach is bad, or whatever) it’s not an especially useful grade on its own

Eric A Longenhagen: 35 I’m more on board with because it feels like replacement level, ya know? Like the threshold beneath which having a tool that bad becomes a problem.

Eric A Longenhagen: 4 arm? Meh, whatever, go to left field it’s okay. 3 arm? You’re coughing up extra bases all the time.

Pumpsie Green: Is Ethan Salas more of a defensive prospect than offensive? And are the Padres pushing him faster than someone his age should be?

Eric A Longenhagen:

1. Yes, 2. not anymore but at one point yes

Ryan Russell: So who hired Travis? Any plans to replace him?

Eric A Longenhagen: The Rays did, he started earlier this month. I am so, so thankful to him for his work and expertise. He has a ridiculous motor, I am so proud to call him my friend and to have had him as a colleague. Congrats to him on getting back in the game like he set out to.

Eric A Longenhagen: And yes.

Sam: What’s your threshold for considering a farm system top heavy? Do you look at an objective measure (e.g. percentage of value tied up in top 5 players) or is it more of a feel thing?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s more just feel but most systems have close to 40 guys on their list, so when an org like Philly has closer to 30 but 3 or more of them are studs up top that qualifies as top heavy to me.

Kawann Short: Is repeating the DSL a major concern for guys who land 7 figure bonuses or do some of the better athletes just need the time to figure it out? How should I interpret positive outcomes for guys who play down there the 2nd time around? Asking more generally, but I noticed Adriel Radney still gets a 45 from you despite his lackluster 2024.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think repeating the DSL has become common now that we’ve lost two rosters worth of spots. Ideally you crush in your first year and force the org’s hand to promote you, especially when you’re a top signee. But mostly there are just good players who repeat there. In Radney’s case I think a lingering back issue gives you a reason to stay on him, lean on your priors rather than cut bait.

Ryan Kerrigan: Will the Roki Sasaki bonus pool saga this year have an effect on the international market moving forward? I’d imagine a handshake deal at age 14 appears riskier if teams are going to just cut you loose so close to signing day. Or does this only apply to a select few teams like the Dodgers now that they have set the precedent for doing so?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think a situation where a baddie like Roki causes you one to dash their agreements is rare enough that Latin American prospects and their trainers/agents shouldn’t be paranoid about it happening constantly. There might be some individual team-and-agent relationships that are more sour now because of how people behaved, though.

scottsjunkmail: I’m trying to better understand which skills translate best from the upper minors to the majors. If you knew that there were two players, each with a true talent wRC+ of 140 in AAA, and the major league true talent wRC+ of one of them was 80 and the other 120, what would you be able to infer about their profiles?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess (emphasis on guess) one of them can’t hit velocity. There are just things happening at the big league level that you can’t recreate in the minors. Breaking ball quality and velocity are two big ones. Aside from the legit prospects, who aren’t there for very long, the best Triple-A pitcher would be the thirteenth best pitcher on the big league team. You’re skipping from Pro to All Madden when you go to the big leagues.

James: Colby Thomas got some top 100 love from Baseball America, but you had him as #25 on the A’s list. Obviously strikeouts are a major concern,  but why is Fangraphs so down on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: A perfect follow up…

Eric A Longenhagen: Let me say first that this is not to drag my buddies at BA, who do great work. It’s healthy to disagree about some of these guys. There are things about Colby Thomas, visually and statistically, that are good. He has power, he’s on time to pull, he takes amazing care of his body and he’s strong and fast…

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s also a righty-hitting corner OF, whose chase rate (in the minors) is more than a full standard deviation below the big league average. His contact rate is more than one standard deviation below the big league average. His head is flying all over the place when he swings because he swings with so much effort (Matt Mervis was this way too).

Eric A Longenhagen: What’s that gonna be like against big league stuff? I don’t think it’s 2 annual WAR good.

I Made the Chat for Once!!: Not a chat answerable question but an idea for an article. Can you give insight into the logistics of teams scouting? There are so many MLB, minor league, and then potential draftees and IAFA signees. Do teams generally scout all of these players, or do they have a target list and only collect data on those guys? How many guys will a scout analyze at a single game? Is video becoming the go to for many orgs now?

Eric A Longenhagen: As quickly as I can: Tough there is more hybridization occurring, teams usually have a pro scouting staff, a domestic amateur scouting staff, and an international staff. Every pro player is scouted. Every DI college player is scouted, or has data collected that indicates they should be a scouting target. How well teams scout JUCOs and Division II and III schools varies, though I’d say more data-oriented teams tend to be the ones who want in-person looks at those players because they otherwise lack data on them…

Eric A Longenhagen: How many scout a single game? Depends. Sometimes an area scout, a crosschecker, and a scouting director will be at Potential First Rounder’s game. Mostly it’s one scout per game.

Eric A Longenhagen: For more, you should read: Future Value: The Battle for Baseball’s Soul and How Teams Will Find the Next Superstar: Longenhagen, Eric, McDaniel, Kiley, Law, Keith: 9781629377674: Amazon.com: Books

Jorge: Hendry Mendez had some nice surface numbers as a 20 year old in A+, but didn’t get a mention in the Phillies list. Lack of power or potential for development thereof too much to overcome?

Eric A Longenhagen: Coulda been an HM, has a lot of the same issues as Crawford but without as explosive the tools. More LF fit, less projectable. Loved him at one point, has stagnated.

Shaun Phillips: Ideal base defensive front

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a 4-3 guy, but I like to mix it up.

Eric A Longenhagen: My GameCube died last night so I won’t be doing any 4-3 Under nonsense with Peppers and Suggs anymore.

Bean Counter: Since the emphasis today is the Phillies, what do you see for Justin Crawford? Do you think he has the body to develop equivalent power as his father?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a bearish view because I don’t think he’ll succeed with his current swing, and I don’t think he’s an especially skilled defender. He’s talented, he has upside, I just think there’s a big gap between what he looks like now and what’ll need to look like for him to succeed.

Theo be Praised: Is Kevin Alcantara a natural CF?  If so, it seems like he would be prime trade candidate, correct?  CF would maximize his value, and PCA probably has that locked down for the Cubs….

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and yes

Alec: Will Keibert Ruiz ever figure it out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Man, idk, he’s such a unique talent but it has gone much, much worse than I expected.

M’s Fan: Who is a mariners prospect that you are higher on than the consensus? One that you are lower on?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have tended to be higher on Farmelo and lower on Montes and Arroyo. From the sounds of things in these chats I’ll be higher on Harry Ford, who I used to be the low man on.

Muggsy: Do you consider Tim Duncan a power forward, or were the Spurs just playing two centers? Does Giannis need another ring to pass Dirk/Garnett in the all time rankings?

Eric A Longenhagen: Timmy was a PF on offense and a C on defense. He might pass Dirk with just the one, KG yeah go get no. 2.

JordanWicksTruther: Hey Eric, huge fan. I was wondering if you are able to tell the quality of an International class on signing day the same way you’re able to tell the quality of a draft class on draft day? Everyone’s widely held opinions about the last two draft classes have been mostly true, but is there too much variance at 16 to know without hindsight? If you can tell, what do you think about this most recent class overall?

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks for saying that. I think the error bar for an Int’l class is much, much bigger. The nature of the market — with such young players who change so much so fast, and who agree to deals early and aren’t seen a ton afterward — makes it that way. Having said that, this still feels like a slightly down year, at least up top…

Eric A Longenhagen: Do you have a track record of hitting insofar as you can in this market? Can you play a premium position? Are you physically projectable? There isn’t a slam dunk guy who has all three of these things in this year’s group. Josuar is closest.

Sox fan: I know you just released your 2025 international list, but are there any guys for 2026 receiving any hype already? Any teams looking like they’ve have strong classes? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll have a “top of 26” type drop for Prospect Week, which starts the week following the Super Bowl.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, I’ve gotta say your questions this week were outstanding. I’m gonna go get some exercise in while it’s sunny and get jamming on Top 100 and Prospect Week stuff. Look for the Yankees list next week, and maybe the Braves, Jays, or Tigers, too. I appreciate your readership and hope you’ll consider an ad-free sub to the site. TTFN