Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/9/26

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy ho from a brisk and refreshing Tempe, Arizona, where I’ll be able to see baseball in person a week from today.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks for joining me for the first chat of the calendar year. If you’re new, we talk about prospects in this space for about an hour on Fridays.

Scotty: Happy Friday, Eric. How often in your analysis do you use comps to shape your thoughts about players? I was thinking about who is a starter comp for Jaxon Wiggins and I was coming up with a blank.

Eric A Longenhagen: If I go looking for a comp it’s usually via the shape of a player’s data. Like, “Alfonsin Rosario’s contact rate is X% and his measured power is Y, what big leaguers have a similar contact rate and measured power, etc. and what did they perform like in the bigs…

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s more about understanding viable MLB baselines than going looking for a comp player to player

Eric A Longenhagen: And then sometimes you’re just watching a guy and think, “This guy looks like Jon Garland” or whatever

NFP: What do you feel are the biggest process changes since Gawlowski joined?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s the first prospect coworker who has a little kid (a little kid who’s speaking two languages btw, unreal) and so sometimes there’s jelly all over the scouting reports.

Roman Anthony Enjoyer: If the Red Sox decide to trade Duran for prospects would the return be larger than what the Marlins got for Cabrera? Would someone like Alfredo Dino lead the return?

Dan S.: Will Caissie make enough contact to tap into the power and be an above average regular?

DR: Does the Cabrera return make it seem like the O’s overpaid for Baz?  Miami’s return feels somewhat lighter than what Baltimore gave up

Eric A Longenhagen: General Edward Cabrera trade thoughts:

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Caissie can be a meaningfully good piece of an offense pretty soon. Big lefty power like his is uncommon. Might he struggle enough against lefties to require a platoon partner? Yeah, and that’s why we have him graded as more of a good platoon corner OF right now. But the Marlins have time to give him runway as they build the roster toward contention and see how he adjusts to lefties. He’s a fine centerpiece of a trade like this.

Eric A Longenhagen: But the rest of the package is light, like I think it’s pretty likely neither of the other guys does anything. And that part felt underwhelming, especially when comparing it to the Baz return.

Eric A Longenhagen: Now I’m willing to believe that Edward Cabrera’s injury history (which is long and troubling) may have had a real impact on what he return was, relative to Baz. But on pure stuff, they’re both exciting impact guys.

Eric A Longenhagen: As for a potential Duran return, I just think the market values hitters way more than arms, especially right now when there are still lots of signing and trade candidates still out there.

Eric A Longenhagen: But I dont think Duno is Boston’s type like that.

NFP: Any notable catchers to track in the 2026 draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s actually a pretty light year for catching, maybe a couple college guys find there way into round two (Lackey at GT, I liked Ryder Helfrick in HS, there’s a kid at Cincy) and I like Alain Gomez and Andrew Costello as million dollar HS guys but I’m not trying to take them 15th or anything.

Bryan Of The Cross: Have you watched any LIDOM MVP Bryan de la Cruz? He’s mashing; any adjustments to note?

Eric A Longenhagen: He looks like he’s hit a different gear in the gym, maybe. Looks stronger to me. LIDOM pitching isn’t awesome, though. Grain of salt.

Aussie League: The Phillies send a contingent of minor leaguers to play in Australia every winter. I also understand some young Japanese players go to get reps. What’s your understanding of the talent level in that league?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a weird mix of older veteran Aussies, a handful of usually very young position player prospects from a few MLB teams (Reds, Phils, Tigers, Rays, have had guys there) and now suddenly some developmental types from Asia. It doesn’t squarely compare with a minor league level here, it’s part adult men’s league, part Old Appy League.

Odenyc: A few chats ago, you ranked 2025 debut starters, McLean, Burns, Sasaki, Yesavage, Schlitter, Horton I think in that order. Who want asked about, nor ranked was Miz. Where would you put him amongst those arms? Thanks!!

Eric A Longenhagen: You can order him, Roki, and Yesavage however you like in that area

Jim: Can you say when the A’s prospect list will be released?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s likely one that gets done after spring training starts. I live 15 minutes from the complex and would rather capture early-season improvements in person on that list that write it now.

NFP: How often do you reevaluate thresholds like average contact/z-con/chase against MLB-level damage on contact? Same with whiff rates and shape/release traits for pitchers

Eric A Longenhagen: Basically every offseason when it’s time to make the spreadsheets

Oneear: Rushing or Basallo?

Eric A Longenhagen: Basallo

Jeb: If you are the Pirates, do you give Konnor Griffin a Jackson Chourio like extension just before the season and start him at SS in the MLB Opening Day?

Eric A Longenhagen: I would certainly try to, you’d at least want to see how the player feels about the idea of it before you start talking about length and amount, and I’m not sure right before the CBA expires is the exact right time to do it when you’re talking about a team like Pittsburgh who kinda needs to nail it.

Jemccla: Do you think any of Gabriel Gonzalez, Hector Rodriguez or Jared Thomas will have a chance to start in their respective OFs this year? What would their clubs need to see from them to provide them an opportunity for extended abs at the big league level?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d put Gonzalez and Rodriguez ahead of Thomas in terms of ’26 debut probability. The honest answer is usually these guys debut because of injury, which I suppose puts Gabby at the top of the list because Minnesota’s players are an injury prone group.

Oaktown Blues: A’s have lost a couple formerly highly-regarded guys this off-season due to roster crunch: Waldichuk (DFA) and Susac (rule 5). Do you think they will regret either of these losses? Should they have tried harder to protect them?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s gonna be okay. Waldy didn’t look totally back to peak for after his rehab and I think Susac’s ceiling is as a backup.

Burp: I’m not a scout but Whisenhunt looks like a 2-pitch guy with a bad fastball and bad command.  Can he really be successful as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not. But a lefty reliever with an elite changeup, whose fastball ticks up a bit when he’s airing it out in relief. That’s appealing still.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like, what if he’s lefty Devin Williams? That’d be nice.

JD: Long-term dynasty 5×5 question, 6-10 years from now and having to make picks now; rank Dax Kilby, Johnny Level, Luis Hernandez and Gabriel Rodriguez, regardless of the position or org they end up in. I’d go in the order listed; whatcha thinking?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d slide Level behind the two more projectable guys, but you’re talking like three 45+ guys and then one 45 (Level). Jonny’s good and might be the quickest mover of that entire group, if that matters to how you stack them.

Appa Yip Yip: Is there a sport you watch that you actively avoid learning deeply about so you have something to watch without your brain automatically going into evaluation mode?

Eric A Longenhagen: It used to be Magic the Gathering but then it became impossible to have any idea what was going on without being totally immersed. I watch a casual amount of hockey and basketball, only for baseball and football am I a spreadsheet boi.

Eric A Longenhagen: I watch the Sixers, Flyers, and Grizzlies a time or two per week. The Rockets and Spurs and Sharks and Oilers end up on the TV a bunch late.

Jonesy’s Cat: Retrospective on the Michael Busch trade:  Did both sides win?  Hope and Ferris are good prospects, but Busch has provided more value for CHC.  For LAD, he wasn’t going to beat out Freddie Freeman for a job.  Win-win?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cubs win right now.

Ben: Hey Eric! No question, just hope you had a nice holiday season. I’m ready for baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, it was pretty nice. Always a little busier than it is restorative when you’re the one traveling, though.

Oneear: Is Painter’s value dropping just TJ related, or has something more popped up?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote a ton about him toward the end of the year and you can find a link to that on his player page. In short: his value isn’t really dropping, you just have to prefer a couple of the other guys ahead of him right now I think. His release point was slightly different by the end of the year, the Phils know, they’re working with it… He’s really young and talented, he’s going to be fine.

JD: In a previous chat you said you were ok with these types of questions, so I’m hoping these aren’t annoying and I appreciate your outlook. One more long-term dynasty 5×5 question, I’m ranking these pitchers: Ryan Sloan, Kendry Chourio, Braylon Doughty, Dasan Hill, Esteban Mejia, CameronFlukey, David Shields, TGregory-Alford. How would you change it?

Eric A Longenhagen: Put TGA on either side of Hill

romorr: Seems the stuff models love Levi Wells. He seemed to perform better in 2025 as well. Any change to the SIRP designation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, super violent high effort look, RP all the way

SCJH: Based purely on performance Kala’i Rosario seemed to make some second-half adjustments that paid dividends last year – huge spike in power while also cutting his Ks from >30% in the first half to 25% in the second. Anything there from a scouting perspective? Is he looking like a guy who could stick as a regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: One of my homework assignments for the next week is to check on which Twins deserve to be in our Top 100 convo during the next month. I’ll have a firmer answer as to whether there was a mechanical change, or something like that, next week. I think the role Rosario could feasibly play is that Jordan Luplow, Harold Ramirez, guy who mashes lefties and plays a corner part time role.

Skin in the Game: I was very recently diagnosed with contact dermatitis, but my doctor says it’s promising that I’m one change away from turning that around. What hitting prospect currently allergic to contact do you think will be able to make that one sort of change happen?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s pretty good, and I immediately knew to read it in the voicing of an actor in a commercial for Vibrovia or whatever medicine

Oneear: “Howdy ho from a brisk and refreshing Tempe, Arizona, where I’ll be able to see baseball in person a week from today.”  Yeah, Baby!

Eric A Longenhagen: Fast offseason

Michael – FG since 2016: If Pirates could get a nice ML piece for Edward Florentino would you dangle him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, controllable bats are a premium for them, that guys has a chance to be a difference maker and maybe sooner than you think if the hit tool piece of his skillset is really this good.

Jim: Why does it seem like it is more acceptable for second basemen or shortstops or even centerfielders to have a lighter power tool than it is catchers? With catching being in need I would think teams would take production however it comes but it seems like the power hitting catcher is the preferred type. Why is that?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a great question. Part of the premise of it is slightly off, but it’s mostly true. The part I think is wrong is your inclusion of CFs. Center fielders who perform like 50-grade players or better basically always have power. Aside from Kiermaier, anyone who’s had sustained success for multiple years tends to hit for some power out there, guys like jackie bradley, kevin pillar…they’re high strikeout or low OBP guys flawed in some way, but play good D and get to power so they’re 50s….

Eric A Longenhagen: At shortstop (second base is not a premium position for me anymore, defensive positioning has warped the skillset needed there, that’s a diff discussion) the average contact rate is actually higher than it is some other corner positions, like it’s tough to find athletes who can play short and also bang, but not as hard to find guys who can play short and put the bat on the ball some.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the reverse is true moreso at catcher, and this is really the answer to your question: It takes a big strong dude to deal with the punishment of catching day after day, year after year, and the bigger dudes just end to have power.

Eric A Longenhagen: Erik Kratz and Tyler Flower and on and on…Big guys tend to win the war of attrition at catcher and because they’re big they’re often strong. Rafael Marchan and Garrett Stubbs perform in the minors and then can’t sustain in the bigs.

Oneear: “Howdy ho from a brisk and refreshing Tempe, Arizona, where I’ll be able to see baseball in person a week from today.” Was there snow on the ground?

Eric A Longenhagen: No but we’ll dip into the 30s tonight

g4: Would River Ryan and a 40+ be enough return for Freddy Peralta? Is it close?

Eric A Longenhagen: No because I don’t think you can’t trade Freddy where the primary return is a guy who you haven’t seen pitch in a game for over a year

SCJH: I read a few reports about a new “league” for draftees who teams didn’t feel ready to send to the ACL or FCL, but didn’t hear anything about what actually happened down there. Were you able to get reports on any of those happenings, or was it basically just more of the same sort of thing that’s always happened on complexes, where more loose/informal games are always happening?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s a Bridge League and an Instructional League window. Bridge League is informal games with the Complex rosters and whatever new draftees are ready to play games as soon as they sign. That’s taking place after the ACL season has concluded but while the rest of the minor leagues are still going.

Eric A Longenhagen: Instructs take place after the minor league season country-wide has started to end. It’s a select group of players from usually he lower levels, better talent than the bridge league group, and some guys getting tuned up for the Fall League. In Arizona we have a formal schedule and group chat for that stuff. In Florida they don’t really do much of this kind of thing, too spread out for it.

Guest: The IFA board getting updated when, any Bluejays to look out for?

Eric A Longenhagen: Early next week, probably Tuesday.

Eric A Longenhagen: Catcher Juan Caricote for a shade under 2mil, couple OFs a shade under 1 mil

Sox fan: When are you releasing your IFA preview? Any Red Sox of interest on the list? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I have two million dollar guys: Garielvin Silverio and Darwis Brito. SIlverio an OF closer to 1.5, Brito an infielder closer to 1 even

Ethan: Hi Eric! I hope you have been having a fine week! As a Mets fan, I’m of course well aware of the array of prospects and rookies in the farm system heading into the 2026 season. I am also well aware of the “Prospect Hugger” label that Mets fans have often been associated with over the past 12 months. With the great amount of talent in the farm system, who do you believe the higher-ups in Queens will also be “hugging tightly” when it comes to trades in this current offseason and possibly into the next offseason? Carson Benge and Nolan McLean seem like locks, but Ryan Clifford? A.J. Ewing? Jonah Tong? Nick Morabito? Brandon Sproat? Chris Suero? Are they at that level are or are about there in due time to be held onto tightly?

Eric A Longenhagen: If it’s me: McLean is untouchable, the rest are not.

War2D2: I looked up Garland bc I hadn’t thought of him in years. The dude ran up a 3.5 fWAR season with a 4% K-BB and a SIERA of over 5. Unreal.

Salty: Noticed River Ryan is still rated a 50.  Understanding his well-documented injury history, will he become the oldest player ever to appear on the Top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: Josh James – Stats – Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Sean Murphy and Arozarena were 26 I think

Sean: The White Sox said they are using Grant Taylor in a multi-inning relief role. I get the slow buildup towards him becoming a starting pitcher, but couldn’t this be done in the minor leagues so as not to burn 2 years of team control? Or is the development that much more meaningful to get the big league competition?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the MLB component is a meaningful factor (look at the A’s, their approach seems smart and like it’s lead to them having real direction) but I still think they promoted him prematurely.

Will: If you ran an amateur model, how would you give it some personal flavor (ie Cleveland favoring multi-year performance)

Eric A Longenhagen: LLM looking at the reports for key phrases regarding visually subjective traits and baking those in

Wes: Where do scouts normally sit at minor league parks? I would think behind home plate, but that’s usually where I sit at games for my local team and I’ve never noticed anyone taking notes or looking particularly scouty

Eric A Longenhagen: Behind home plate or down the line perpendicular to the hitters

Vee: I enjoyed your pod with Jordan, did it give you the itch to bring back Fangraphs Audio?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wanna pod, but not exactly like FG Audio

Eric A Longenhagen: Getting FGa going again is an Appelman project

Kevin: Any concerns about what’s happening in Venezuela impacting players’ availability or development?

Eric A Longenhagen: concerns for peoples’ safety more than anything

Eric A Longenhagen: I know of one seven figure VZ bonus kid set to sign in six days was not out of there as of a day or two ago.

Broken Bat: Really love your detailed work. Amazing retention of all these prospects. My question pertains to process and specifically the Rockies. Over the years high picks of pitchers like Dollander and Pint have resulted. They really have not yet shown the ROI. The park works against them (and all pitchers). The talent of say Dollander is real. Many teams picking later would really like to have had chance to draft him but he was gone. You can’t trade draft picks in MLB. Why don’t Rockies draft and then trade for assets back to get this franchise back?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the Rockies priorities should be addressing the clockwork of the org that has brough them to this place rather than seeking cavalier alternatives to talent acquisition. But I love that you’re thinking outside the box about how to go about it.

David: Do you think that the A’s will bring up Leo De Vries at some point this season and if so will he bump Jacob Wilson to a different position in the infield?

Eric A Longenhagen: He *could* be up, but he’s not a better defender than Wilson.

Mike: Rough guess on a hondo pub date?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2/11

JP: Yohendrick Pinango mashed in the Venezuelan winter league, what’s the outlook on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Spreadsheet darling who I’m skeptical of, visually. Fringe 40-man guy.

Insert Witty Name Here: When clubs trade big leaguers for prospects, which teams do you think have done better in identifying their targets?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tampa is pretty awesome at it

Odenyc: Another post-prospect question—we get so much info until guys hit those magical numbers, appreciate thoughts on those who debuted and exceed them.

Eric A Longenhagen:

Eric A Longenhagen: I try to write a little TLDR for the player pages when guys graduate so you at least know what the projection was a that moment.

Eric A Longenhagen: But otherwise they’re often just captured in the analysis of the site as a whole

Wallyworld: Hey Eric, when you guys are doing your prospect list, how much does injury history play a factor in FV’s and just overall ranks. Availability is a very important ability, so just wanted to get your ideas after reading the piece on DeLauter and just knowing other guys that fit that bill too (Sykora, Farmelo, Painter, etc)

Eric A Longenhagen: For DeLauter we think the hit/power combo is too good to have just 50’d him, we view his risk as being similar to the volatile high ceiling guys I’ve tended to put toward the back of the 55 FV tier, so like Duno and stuff. It’s a different type of risk/upside combo but still kind of like that

Padres: How in are you on Miguel Mendez

Eric A Longenhagen: Nasty RP, don’t think the FB plays to its velo as a starter

Colton: Yairo Padilla show enough last year to get the nod onto A ball or would you start him on the complex again before pushing him forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: Challenge him

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay friends, time to go. Thanks for coming again this week, I’ll be back next Friday to talk a ton of international signing stuff and more. Have a nice weekend.